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Old 17th December 2017, 01:55 PM   #961
acbytesla
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I agree with Part Skeptic. We are facing, the end times when the human race will cease to exist on this planet.

The difference is I don't know if the end times will last 1 more day or 1 trillion more days. I don't know if our end will be the result of bacteria, a virus, an asteroid, global warming, thermonuclear exchange or something else. But it will happen someday, somehow.

99 percent of all species that have lived on this planet are extinct today. The idea that it won't happen to our own species is hubris. So Part Skeptic's anxious desire for man's reign on this planet will happen.

But, it is risible for him to think he knows how it will happen or that he can actually tell us through interpretation of the Bible when it is supposed to happen. From my reading of the Bible it was supposed to happen within 1 generation of the crucifixion.

Just to give you an idea about how throughout history religious people have been predicting Armageddon.

Simon bar Giora predicted that the Jewish revolt against the Romans in 66–70 in Judea as the final end-time battle which would bring about the arrival of the Messiah.

Hilary of Poitiers 365 CE This early French bishop announced the end of the world would happen during this year.

Martin of Tours Another French Bishop predicted that Jesus would return before 400 CE

500 CE Hippolytus of Rome, Sextus Julius Africanus, Irenaeus : All three predicted Jesus would return in this year with one of the predictions being based on the dimensions of Noah's ark.

April 6 793 Beatus of Liébana: This Spanish monk prophesied the second coming of Christ and the end of the world on that day in front of a large crowd of people.

800CE Sextus Julius Africanus: This Christian historian revised the date of doomsday to the year 800.
799–806CE: Gregory of Tours:Fench bishop calculated the end would occur between the years 799 and 806.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...alyptic_events

And so on and so on. Wikipedia list countless more notable people predicting the eminent demise of the human race and/or the end times.

They have ALL been wrong. Even if you're a believer in a God, you HAVE to roll your eyes when the next snake oil salesperson tells you they KNOW or can predict when or how.
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Old 18th December 2017, 09:05 AM   #962
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I agree with Part Skeptic. We are facing, the end times when the human race will cease to exist on this planet.

The difference is I don't know if the end times will last 1 more day or 1 trillion more days. I don't know if our end will be the result of bacteria, a virus, an asteroid, global warming, thermonuclear exchange or something else. But it will happen someday, somehow.

99 percent of all species that have lived on this planet are extinct today. The idea that it won't happen to our own species is hubris. So Part Skeptic's anxious desire for man's reign on this planet will happen.

But, it is risible for him to think he knows how it will happen or that he can actually tell us through interpretation of the Bible when it is supposed to happen. From my reading of the Bible it was supposed to happen within 1 generation of the crucifixion.

Just to give you an idea about how throughout history religious people have been predicting Armageddon.

Simon bar Giora predicted that the Jewish revolt against the Romans in 66–70 in Judea as the final end-time battle which would bring about the arrival of the Messiah.

Hilary of Poitiers 365 CE This early French bishop announced the end of the world would happen during this year.

Martin of Tours Another French Bishop predicted that Jesus would return before 400 CE

500 CE Hippolytus of Rome, Sextus Julius Africanus, Irenaeus : All three predicted Jesus would return in this year with one of the predictions being based on the dimensions of Noah's ark.

April 6 793 Beatus of Liébana: This Spanish monk prophesied the second coming of Christ and the end of the world on that day in front of a large crowd of people.

800CE Sextus Julius Africanus: This Christian historian revised the date of doomsday to the year 800.
799–806CE: Gregory of Tours:Fench bishop calculated the end would occur between the years 799 and 806.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...alyptic_events

And so on and so on. Wikipedia list countless more notable people predicting the eminent demise of the human race and/or the end times.

They have ALL been wrong. Even if you're a believer in a God, you HAVE to roll your eyes when the next snake oil salesperson tells you they KNOW or can predict when or how.

I am well aware of everything you post, and it is quite sensible.

First, I have no desire for an end, except the thought that it might stop the extinction of the planet.

Second, we are in a period that is unique in history - global ravaging of the planet. Check out the Al Jazeera program "Sand Wars". Mankind is consuming beaches, rivers, and ocean floor beds at an alarming rate to manufacture concrete. Plastic pollution of our oceans is a threat. Biochemicals are in our oceans and streams. Species are being extincted at an alarming rate.

Our immune systems are being stressed, and the pathogens are becoming immune.

Predicting a pandemic in the near future does not need psychic powers - just logic. When any system goes exponential (see the bitcoin bubble debate) then the question is not whether there will be a crash or major correction but when. Since the timeline gets shorter as the system grows exponentially then even ten years is too long. I am just saying it will happen in the next year or two, and I have a good chance of being right. The key event which is nearly done is close, but again circumstances delayed it.

If there is a God, and many people believe there is, then an subtle intervention is also logical in order to prevent an irreversible extinction and a planet only suitable for bacteria.

My prediction is based on a "conversation"with God who said it will happen soon. It was not a disembodied voice and I cannot be sure it happened. But the next day swine flu struck in the remote part of New Zealand that I was in. And then appeared in the neighborhood in Auckland I lived in. I knew it was not the big pandemic, but I did take it as confirmation. Such "conversations" have only happened once in my life.

I am a well-functioning engineer and not some person making a living from woo (despite some of my posts where I claim a few possible paranormal events).

If it has not happened in the next few years, I will admit to being wrong about the timing.
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Old 18th December 2017, 10:05 AM   #963
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
First, I have no desire for an end, except the thought that it might stop the extinction of the planet.
The time table for that is on the order of 4+ billion years. For the human race? Certainly well before that the planet will no longer support life in any form. We may well be able to do ourselves in even before that, there have been numerous 90%+ extinctions and whether one comes for us from natural processes or we bring it on ourselves is a field ripe for speculation.

Quote:
Predicting a pandemic in the near future does not need psychic powers - just logic. When any system goes exponential....
Malthus, among others, springs to mind; he was wrong.

Quote:
If there is a God, and many people believe there is, then an subtle intervention is also logical...
Nothing at all logical in the supernatural nor is there any credible evidence for it. Nor will belief in a possible event bring it about.

Quote:
My prediction is based on a "conversation"with God who said it will happen soon.
That's old, old, old. Just one sampling of such "events" through the ages: http://www.bible.ca/pre-date-setters.htm

Last edited by Peregrinus; 18th December 2017 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 18th December 2017, 10:16 AM   #964
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I am well aware of everything you post, and it is quite sensible.

First, I have no desire for an end, except the thought that it might stop the extinction of the planet.

Second, we are in a period that is unique in history - global ravaging of the planet. Check out the Al Jazeera program "Sand Wars". Mankind is consuming beaches, rivers, and ocean floor beds at an alarming rate to manufacture concrete. Plastic pollution of our oceans is a threat. Biochemicals are in our oceans and streams. Species are being extincted at an alarming rate.

Our immune systems are being stressed, and the pathogens are becoming immune.

Predicting a pandemic in the near future does not need psychic powers - just logic. When any system goes exponential (see the bitcoin bubble debate) then the question is not whether there will be a crash or major correction but when. Since the timeline gets shorter as the system grows exponentially then even ten years is too long. I am just saying it will happen in the next year or two, and I have a good chance of being right. The key event which is nearly done is close, but again circumstances delayed it.

If there is a God, and many people believe there is, then an subtle intervention is also logical in order to prevent an irreversible extinction and a planet only suitable for bacteria.

My prediction is based on a "conversation"with God who said it will happen soon. It was not a disembodied voice and I cannot be sure it happened. But the next day swine flu struck in the remote part of New Zealand that I was in. And then appeared in the neighborhood in Auckland I lived in. I knew it was not the big pandemic, but I did take it as confirmation. Such "conversations" have only happened once in my life.

I am a well-functioning engineer and not some person making a living from woo (despite some of my posts where I claim a few possible paranormal events).

If it has not happened in the next few years, I will admit to being wrong about the timing.
And yet you "predictions" are functionally identical to guesses excreted from your lower abdomen.

It's cute, in a pitiable sort of way, that you cling to the overt and demonstrable delusion that you have any prophetic competence whatsoever.
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Old 18th December 2017, 10:34 AM   #965
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Predicting a pandemic in the near future does not need psychic powers - just logic.
But you claimed to use supernatural powers, i.e., tarot cartomancy. You can't support a claim of legitimate supernatural powers by admitting your predictions are instead an intellectual exercise.

Quote:
My prediction is based on a "conversation"with God who said it will happen soon.
Lots of people claim to talk with their deity and, by those conversions, excuse quite a lot of behavior the rest of us would deem unsuitable. I don't believe it's wrong to impose a fairly rigorous standard of proof on people who claim to talk to deities. Sad thing is, you're not willing to meet those standards, so we reject your claims.

Quote:
...but I did take it as confirmation.
Hence the phrase "confirmation bias."

Quote:
I am a well-functioning engineer...
Well, no. Not that engineering is germane to religious end times, but you brought it up before in a way that illustrates a perennial problem you have in this forum. You tend to make up stories that paint you as the hero who succeeds, maverick fashion, over the rest of the unwashed masses who just stick with convention and -- as you tell the story -- naysay your efforts. The problem is that you say you do this also as an engineer. And that's a huge red flag to those of us who really are engineers and realize the value -- practically, scientifically, and legally -- of adhering to best practices.

When we see a pattern of argumentation that continually points back to you and your allegedly special status, we start to wonder if there's a personal motive behind your arguments.
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Old 19th December 2017, 12:05 PM   #966
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
And yet you "predictions" are functionally identical to guesses excreted from your lower abdomen.

(snip)
Your "speak" from experience do your?
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Old 19th December 2017, 03:27 PM   #967
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Your "speak" from experience do your?
For myself, at least, it's been long experience in hearing such predictions (and having read far older but identical predictions) come to naught.
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Old 19th December 2017, 10:55 PM   #968
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Originally Posted by Peregrinus View Post
For myself, at least, it's been long experience in hearing such predictions (and having read far older but identical predictions) come to naught.

My post to Halleyscomet was about his biological method of obtaining forms of speech.

As for predictions, I agree that the end of the world predictions have been many and woefully wrong.

I do not predict the extinction of mankind, but a drastic change. And I might also be woefully wrong - after all my "conversation" with God was greatly disappointing in terms being able to say that it was remarkable in any way. If it was just my imagination then any success is pure luck.
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Old 20th December 2017, 04:31 AM   #969
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From a personal perspective I am seeing quite a spike in illness and death. Yesterday a friend of my fiance died of a heart attack, my 42 year nephew in Canada has stage four cancer, my daughter in Virginia has two sick children needing tests to determine what is wrong, and a sick husband.

An epidemic of Listeriosis has broken out in Johannesburg for the past few weeks. The testing labs are overwhelmed. We know a health official who says they are baffled as to the source. Forty-six have died. Despite the pamphlets warning that the old, young and HIV are at risk, it is the 25 to 40 year olds getting hit hardest.
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Old 20th December 2017, 05:08 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Your "speak" from experience do your?


I used to be a conservative Christian Biblical literalist Creationist. There was a time when I would have argued for a theocracy so false prophets such as yourself could be legally executed. I was a big fan of bringing back stoning to better conform to God’s will.

I’ve also gotten food poisoning from improperly stored alphabet soup that ended up going through incompletely digested.

Some years ago I realized that the arguments of Ken Ham and his ilk were no more reasonable than when I saw in the toilet when switching between rectal expulsion and regurgitation.

Applying that comparison to your claims of prophetic power is a reasonable extrapolation, give what utter crap you’re producing. Yes, this means the diseased nonsense you’re spewing is comparable to food poisoning, but fortunately nobody here is daft enough to swallow what you’re splattering.

Any further questions?
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Old 20th December 2017, 09:43 PM   #971
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
I used to be a conservative Christian Biblical literalist Creationist. There was a time when I would have argued for a theocracy so false prophets such as yourself could be legally executed. I was a big fan of bringing back stoning to better conform to God’s will.

I’ve also gotten food poisoning from improperly stored alphabet soup that ended up going through incompletely digested.

Some years ago I realized that the arguments of Ken Ham and his ilk were no more reasonable than when I saw in the toilet when switching between rectal expulsion and regurgitation.

Applying that comparison to your claims of prophetic power is a reasonable extrapolation, give what utter crap you’re producing. Yes, this means the diseased nonsense you’re spewing is comparable to food poisoning, but fortunately nobody here is daft enough to swallow what you’re splattering.

Any further questions?

Shame. No wonder. To spend so much time and thought in the toilet. It seems to have affected your social graces and debating skills (or lack thereof).
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Old 20th December 2017, 10:49 PM   #972
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
If there is a God, and many people believe there is, then an subtle intervention is also logical in order to prevent an irreversible extinction and a planet only suitable for bacteria.

My prediction is based on a "conversation"with God who said it will happen soon. It was not a disembodied voice and I cannot be sure it happened. But the next day swine flu struck in the remote part of New Zealand that I was in. And then appeared in the neighborhood in Auckland I lived in. I knew it was not the big pandemic, but I did take it as confirmation. Such "conversations" have only happened once in my life.

I am a well-functioning engineer and not some person making a living from woo (despite some of my posts where I claim a few possible paranormal events).

If it has not happened in the next few years, I will admit to being wrong about the timing.
Big deal, you'll admit that you were wrong and then make another prediction. This is like comic strip I use to have on my refrigerator. It showed a street preacher holding up a picket sign saying the world will end
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday.

That the swine flu infected part of New Zealand is hardly a harbinger of the demise of the human race.

Tell you what Part Skeptic. Why don't we bet on it. Say $5,000 US dollars. And I'll give you 5 to 1 odds. If there is a worldwide pandemic that kills even 1 percent of the world, population within 2 years, I'll pay you $25K. But if there isn't, you only have to pay me $5,000
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Old 21st December 2017, 04:02 AM   #973
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Shame. No wonder. To spend so much time and thought in the toilet. It seems to have affected your social graces and debating skills (or lack thereof).


What do debating skills have to do with this thread? We’ve had a parade of people making hilariously pathetic protections all of which failed miserably. There’s nothing to debate. I’m here to watch people who have objectively and undeniably failed as “prophets” squirm and struggle to justify their complete incompetence. People spewing nonsense and dressing it up as “predictions” are funny as Hell.

I am here to be entertained, and while you’re not the best dancer we’ve had in this venue, you’ll do until a better act takes the stage.
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Old 21st December 2017, 07:12 AM   #974
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
Shame. No wonder. To spend so much time and thought in the toilet. It seems to have affected your social graces and debating skills (or lack thereof).
This is the sort of dismissive and irrelevant comment more often seen here from TBD.
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Old 21st December 2017, 07:27 AM   #975
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Originally Posted by Peregrinus View Post
This is the sort of dismissive and irrelevant comment more often seen here from TBD.
I think he's just feeling hurt because comparing his "predictions" to alphabet soup is a more on-the-nose comparison than he'd like. Nobody likes having such flagrant and massive failures exposed to commentary. Some people learn from it, others get defensive and increasingly irrational.

PartSkeptic has nothing of value to offer. His "predictions" are mere guesses, some of which are vaguely informed by a superficial knowledge of current events. Any one of us could make predictions of equal or greater quality by spit-balling what we think might happen. The difference is most of the people here have the decency and self-respect to admit such guesses are just that, guesses. There's only one current participant in this thread who feels the need to dress their guesses in a fairy tale of a tarot card enabled game of 20 questions.

And now he's feeling sour because someone is calling him on it bluntly instead of dancing around trying to argue with him about his ignorance of politics, current events and even how tarot cards are typically used by people who take them seriously.
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Old 21st December 2017, 08:15 AM   #976
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Any one of us could make predictions of equal or greater quality by spit-balling what we think might happen.
Quite. This is why meaningful predictions have to be specific about time and/or place, and the hit rate has to be greater than expected by chance/intelligent guesswork.

Even when the prediction is for something which is physically impossible, like Paul Bethke's prediction that the sun will stand still in the sky, a timescale is required, otherwise it can never be declared to have failed.

Sooner or later there will be a serious pandemic. It's pretty much inevitable. If we let PartSkeptic keep extending his timescale something will eventually happen which he can interpret as vindication. That's why I will be updating my list of his predictions on 1st January to record his hit rate to date. If he then wants to make another pandemic prediction with a new end date he can, and I will add it, but every failed prediction lowers his hit rate until eventually even one or two correct ones are within the expected chance/intelligent guesswork range, especially if they're less specific ("next three years" rather than "next year", for example).
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Old 21st December 2017, 08:15 AM   #977
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
I think he's just feeling hurt because comparing his "predictions" to alphabet soup is a more on-the-nose comparison than he'd like. Nobody likes having such flagrant and massive failures exposed to commentary. Some people learn from it, others get defensive and increasingly irrational.

PartSkeptic has nothing of value to offer. His "predictions" are mere guesses, some of which are vaguely informed by a superficial knowledge of current events. Any one of us could make predictions of equal or greater quality by spit-balling what we think might happen. The difference is most of the people here have the decency and self-respect to admit such guesses are just that, guesses. There's only one current participant in this thread who feels the need to dress their guesses in a fairy tale of a tarot card enabled game of 20 questions.

And now he's feeling sour because someone is calling him on it bluntly instead of dancing around trying to argue with him about his ignorance of politics, current events and even how tarot cards are typically used by people who take them seriously.
I feel sorry for PS and a little angry at him.

I feel sorry for him because he is enslaved by these irrational beliefs. And they ARE irrational beliefs. There is NO reason to accept a word of the Bible or the Quran or any so called Holy book. While there may be a few philosophical pearls of wisdom in all of these books, you have to wade through a sewer of lunacy and pure evil to find them.

I'm angry at PS, because he's oblivious to the harm his irrational beliefs has on others and society. His religion says my nephew is perverted and should be stoned to death for simply loving another human being. His religion puts itself between family members. His religion dismisses actual science for 5,000 year old mythology.

I can't help it. This game that moderate religious people play where they pretend that these aren't aspects of their religion angers or that their beliefs are harmless anger the hell out of me.
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Old 21st December 2017, 11:34 AM   #978
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Nobody likes having such flagrant and massive failures exposed to commentary.
The word you're looking for is "palooka." One wonders why PartSkeptic would keep coming back to a forum where such commentary is the rule. He has to know what sort of criticism his claims are going engender. One then has to conclude that repeatedly subjecting himself to this criticism is what serves his purpose, and the purpose seems to be to loudly and bitterly proclaim how badly he's being treated at the hands of skeptics. He wants to be special, and I guess he figures that being criticized "impertinently" skeptics is partly what gets him there.

Quote:
There's only one current participant in this thread who feels the need to dress their guesses in a fairy tale of a tarot card enabled game of 20 questions.
And all mentalist are just guessers. We know this. Skill at "readings" is mostly contriving a situation where guesswork won't immediately be seen as such, and unfortunately PartSkeptic hasn't really acquired that necessary skill yet. Books such as Red Hot Cold Readings make no mistake that they are doing nothing more than being practical psychologists.

Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Quite. This is why meaningful predictions have to be specific about time and/or place, and the hit rate has to be greater than expected by chance/intelligent guesswork.
Right; recasting the prediction is part of the misdirectional art that drives this experience. Making sure the rube knows you get practically unlimited do-overs is expressly how the game is played. It's about conveying the impression that you're better than chance and ordinary prediction, but making sure the circumstances capitalize on chance and ordinary prediction.
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Old 30th December 2017, 12:36 PM   #979
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I think it was on this thread that I said the USA would do a pre-emptive nuclear strike.


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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...-un/992255001/

Pentagon war-gamers have repeatedly found that a limited war with North Korea is not a realistic option, while the player representing North Korea consistently chooses to escalate the conflict in such war games. Most analysts add that conventional weapons are unable to take out underground missile sites, making the only realistic U.S. option for a pre-emptive strike being a nuclear attack.
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Old 30th December 2017, 12:53 PM   #980
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I think it was on this thread that I said the USA would do a pre-emptive nuclear strike.

So what?

Guessing that Trump will nuke a narcissist who won’t slob his knob doesn’t require supernatural powers.

The fact that you keep clinging to that as “evidence” of your Tarot themed game of 20 questions is excruciatingly pathetic. your prophetic claims are a god damn joke. Give up. Stop embarrassing yourself.

Besides, isn’t your deadline past? That’s a “miss” pal. Suck it up and deal.
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Old 30th December 2017, 01:20 PM   #981
Pixel42
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Originally Posted by PartSkeptic View Post
I think it was on this thread that I said the USA would do a pre-emptive nuclear strike.
You really need to be reminded of the apocalyptic predictions you have posted on this thread? I thought you had an infallible memory?

OK, here they are:

Quote:
1. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Pending

2. [1] will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Pending

3. There will be conflict involving nuclear weapons between the US and North Korea before 1st February 2018, with first use of a nuke by the US. Status: Pending

4. The USA will make a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Miss

5. [3] will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Pending

6. The North Korean nuclear threat will be ended by 12th August 2018. Status: Pending
I will be posting an update on Monday, and another on February 1st.
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Last edited by Pixel42; 30th December 2017 at 01:21 PM.
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Old 1st January 2018, 01:14 AM   #982
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Time for an update of PartSkeptic's apocalyptic predictions (changes highlighted).

Quote:
1. A serious global health problem will be apparent by the end of 2017. Status: Miss

2. [1] will be the start of a pandemic that will kill 50% of the population by 2027. Status: Miss

3. There will be conflict involving nuclear weapons between the US and North Korea before 1st February 2018, with first use of a nuke by the US. Status: Pending

4. The USA will make a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea in September 2017. Status: Miss

5. [3] will not escalate to WW3/war with China. Status: Pending

6. The North Korean nuclear threat will be ended by 12th August 2018. Status: Pending
So that's 3 misses and 3 pending, current hit rate 0%
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Old 1st January 2018, 06:12 AM   #983
halleyscomet
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Time for an update of PartSkeptic's apocalyptic predictions (changes highlighted).







So that's 3 misses and 3 pending, current hit rate 0%


Thank you for keeping track of the current claims.

It’s a rather poor lot he’s offered. Even the pending claims are largely guesses that could have been made through data analysis. Predicting Trump might attack North Korea isn’t exactly something that requires prophetic powers.
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