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11th December 2017, 02:39 AM | #1001 |
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11th December 2017, 04:13 AM | #1002 |
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That's not very honest of you. Everybody knows that the tulip mania of 1636-1637, like the South Sea Bubble and the "Wall Street common stock delusion" were highly speculative rides that couldn't last. Tulips might be legitimately grown and traded today but that is neither here nor there.
The fact that properties and other assets rise and fall depending on the level speculation does not foretell the end of bitcoin. |
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11th December 2017, 05:16 AM | #1003 |
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Any more than the asset price collapse of 1637 foretold the end of tulip horticulture, the collapse of 1929 foretold the end of the NY stock exchange, or the 2008 bursting of the credit bubble stopped housing being bought and sold in London.
Bitcoin is probably a bubble which will go pop soon. If it has a useful function it may survive the crash as a continuing brand. Or it may not. I don't know. But all the examples of booms and slumps I cited are of things that did survive the crashes induced by early speculation in their assets. So it was perfectly honest of me. |
11th December 2017, 07:35 AM | #1004 |
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I was surprised that it managed to bounce back from the last bubble in it when it lost 80% of its value overnight. I expect this one to be at least similar to the one when MtGOX crashed out. Back in 2013.
It has certainly hung around longer and weathered far more minor mere 20% loss of value than I would have ever thought. |
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11th December 2017, 12:06 PM | #1005 |
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...bloomberg.html
Quote:
Bitcoin will end in tears. |
11th December 2017, 12:21 PM | #1006 |
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Actually, there is almost no privacy in bitcoin. There are companies like chainalysis which do forensic analysis of the blockchain, in order to find out who has sold what, and when for a number of clients, including probably the IRS. Most bitcoin exchanges with the exception of bitfinex have to comply with "Know Your Customer" bank rules, which destroy anonymity and privacy. As for "fairness", a lot of people who have frontrun bitcoin in anticipation that it will be an important technology have made a lot of money already, whether or not it will be ultimately accepted by a large number of people. The fact of the matter is that there are only some 16 million bitcoins in existence, with a limit of 21 million, yet there is an unlimited supply of Federal Reserve Notes that elites can issue to deprive people of their property.
There is absolutely no question that the Federal Reserve is the largest scam in human history, and bitcoin is just a symptom. |
11th December 2017, 12:46 PM | #1007 |
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I think the crash is near. A person who seems more scammish than ten Federal Reserves put together has just sent me an electronic message inviting me to "cash in on the Bitcoin wave", which he can teach me how to do, regardless of the current price of that crypto currency. This adviser gives no personal name or other identifiable details, but trades (from Dublin) in the name of "Bitcoin Millions". His email is decorated with photographs of sparsely clad young women seated on the deck of some kind of boat.
I don't think I'll bet the house on this offer, attractive though it may appear at first sight. |
11th December 2017, 12:56 PM | #1008 |
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So if bitcoin did crash, how big a recession would that trigger?
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11th December 2017, 01:02 PM | #1009 |
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11th December 2017, 01:59 PM | #1010 |
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11th December 2017, 02:05 PM | #1011 |
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11th December 2017, 07:41 PM | #1012 |
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I don't know what you are arguing.
Tulips an South sea are examples mentioned when one wants to prove that bitcoin will crash and never reach its heady highs again. Although you seem to imply a permanent crash you always seem to stop just short of confirming that this is your belief. Like I said before, bitcoin is due for another price crash - probably a severe one. However, there is no indication that bitcoin will not recover from the next crash - nor of the many crashes that are sure to follow. |
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11th December 2017, 07:51 PM | #1013 |
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How is it functional when the smallest denomination is so large?
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11th December 2017, 09:04 PM | #1014 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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11th December 2017, 09:09 PM | #1015 |
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11th December 2017, 09:35 PM | #1016 |
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11th December 2017, 10:12 PM | #1017 |
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11th December 2017, 10:35 PM | #1018 |
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I think it likely in the event of a crash, that
Bitcoin may survive, but Much or most of the value invested in it at the time of the crash will be liquidated and never be recovered in real terms by the speculators. They may suffer an irretrievable loss. Any whose positions are leveraged will be most severely affected, like the speculators holding "on margin" in 1928-29, who were "sold out" by their creditors. If Bitcoin is to have usefulness as a currency it must acquire reasonable stability and predictability of purchasing power, and of the exchange value its units represent. That excludes its use as a medium of wild speculation. |
11th December 2017, 10:53 PM | #1019 |
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That is what they said after MtGox was hacked in 2011. That is what they said after the crisis in Cyprus ended in 2013/4. That is what they said after MtGox folded. That is what they have been saying after every single price peak.
One of the more recent predictions seen on this forum was that when the price of bitcoin was $500, its value would fall to $150 and would remain around that value for the foreseeable future (needless to say, we don't see that poster around anymore). Who knows? maybe this time the price will fall and stay down for ever more (stopped clock and all that). However, I seriously doubt that yours is the prediction that will stick. You are just the latest in a long line of failed prophets. Who says it has to "have usefulness as a currency"? |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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12th December 2017, 01:25 AM | #1020 |
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Well, to retain any value at all, it needs to be useful for something, but I see what you mean. This from CNBC
An early bitcoin investor said Monday the digital currency can run higher, but the hype has far outpaced its usability. |
12th December 2017, 03:20 AM | #1021 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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12th December 2017, 06:31 AM | #1022 |
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Bitcoin was one of the topics of conversation in the pub last night. No one seemed to know what it was about but a couple of blokes were going to get in on it. It was a 'sure thing'.
Someone's brother who is ' in computers' knew all about it and says to get in, like him. |
12th December 2017, 06:41 AM | #1023 |
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I'll let you argue with https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp about whether Bitcoin is a currency, and I'll ignore the rest of your post until you see fit to explain it.
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12th December 2017, 07:23 AM | #1024 |
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12th December 2017, 08:21 AM | #1025 |
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Bitcoin is useful for moving wealth outside of repressive government regimes and capital controls. Does anyone actually read the posts in this forum?
Quote:
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12th December 2017, 08:46 AM | #1026 |
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12th December 2017, 09:48 AM | #1027 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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12th December 2017, 10:44 AM | #1028 |
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No you don't. You're telling fibs. because you have written that
It is useful for large scale transactions, store of value and speculation, all of which can be conducted anonymously if you know what you are doing.No "mathematics" there that I can see. |
12th December 2017, 10:57 AM | #1029 |
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What do you want to get from me? Do you want to discuss whether bitcoin is issued by a central authority or whether you can pay taxes with it or something?
I would say that something is a "currency" if it is widely used as a currency. Bitcoin currently doesn't meet that standard. That doesn't mean that bitcoin is useless. |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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12th December 2017, 11:23 AM | #1030 |
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What then is it useful for? Are not sellers of various goods and services accepting it as a medium of payment? I haven't raised the issue of whether it is issued by a central authority or whether you can pay taxes with it. Are these defining features of currency in your understanding of the term?
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12th December 2017, 11:47 AM | #1031 |
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Now you are just playing dumb.
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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12th December 2017, 11:55 AM | #1032 |
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12th December 2017, 12:13 PM | #1033 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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12th December 2017, 12:26 PM | #1034 |
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12th December 2017, 04:52 PM | #1035 |
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It seems to me that the energy usage is the only real reason bitcoin will eventually die
If another crypto currency can get as big as bitcoin without that drawback I think it would be unstoppable |
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12th December 2017, 06:18 PM | #1036 |
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I see. All this silliness about whether bitcoin was a currency or not was just an attempt to divert attention away from post #1019 where I said that bitcoin was probably in a bubble but it will most likely recover from the next price shock - again.
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12th December 2017, 10:43 PM | #1037 |
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Increasing energy costs and diminishing block rewards are more likely to see mining level off than to "kill" bitcoin.
"Proof of Stake" and "consenus" are two alternatives that don't require escalating power usage. "Consensus" as used in the Ripple network seems to be the best alternative but it doesn't address how to allocate block rewards. |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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13th December 2017, 02:12 AM | #1038 |
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I don't think bitcoin needs to ever die. Let's say there is a big crash - bigger than any crash before. The price of a bitcoin falls to $0.1. The internet is flooded with articles about people who have lost fortunes, and pull their hair out over having bought it. Surely that means bitcoin has failed miserably and will never recover, right?
Well, in my opinion, no. Even if all that happens, there is no reason why bitcoin can't rise all over again. And it doesn't even need to come up with a new narrative - the promoters can just keep promising the same old thing, that it will one day become universally accepted decentralized digital currency. And it doesn't matter for how long it has failed to achieve that. Has homeopathy ever produced an effective cure for anything? Has any spiritualist ever been able to contact a dead person? Of course not - but that's not going to deter the customers. As long as the promise is attractive, people will keep flocking to it. Bitcoin is a game, a novel way of gambling. Crashes mean nothing; losing money has never dissuaded people from gambling, and failure to fulfill promises has never dissuaded people from following prophets - as long as they keep promising. And since there isn't a single central authority that could die, or be arrested, or take all the money and disappear for good, bitcoin may stay around indefinitely, peaking and crashing in ever-merry cycles. Just as long as people find the promise of replacing the crooked financial "system" (and making some effortless money while at it) appealing. |
13th December 2017, 02:39 AM | #1039 |
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What are you on about now? The question whether you think bitcoin is a currency or not, and why, is both relevant and interesting to why you think it will survive, which it may. Is its function that of a currency? If not, what is it? These questions are relevant both to its real value, if it has one, and its survival potential - as must surely be evident.
The definition of a bubble is whether current investors in the affected asset stand to suffer irretrievable loss of a significant part of their investment, not whether the brand will survive. I think people who have bought Bitcoin at say $15,000 are at risk of suffering such loss. I would be surprised if they come out unscathed. |
13th December 2017, 04:03 AM | #1040 |
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From "CIty AM"
You hear the dreaded words: “this time it’s different”. |
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