|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
18th December 2017, 04:32 PM | #1121 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
|
18th December 2017, 04:34 PM | #1122 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
|
18th December 2017, 09:48 PM | #1123 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
Yes, now that bitcoin has hit the news, I also see a lot of financial "experts" on the main stream media commenting on it. Some of them sound a common sense word of warning to would be speculators who think the bitcoin may be a guaranteed pathway to instant riches.
However, most of them are as full of hot air as you are. They have never heard of bitcoin before. They don't understand how it works. In bitcoin's 9+ years of history, they have never examined so much as a price chart. They have never examined the peaks and troughs in bitcoin's price history nor the global events surrounding these peaks and troughs. They are just talking off the cuff. To them, bitcoin is some "new fangled thingy" and they instinctively try to dismiss it as some flash in the pan. As Tippit pointed out, their economic forecasts are less reliable than those of a carnival gypsy staring into a crystal ball. Even my magic 8 ball has a better track record. And these are the people you want to refer to in your argument from authority? As for the mooted government crackdown, puh-lease! China has one of the biggest involvements in bitcoin. If a crack down by the Chinese government has failed to put a dent in bitcoin prices then what hope do you think the western governments will have when their central banks are compromised because they have put their sticky fingers into bitcoin? Very good! So what makes you think it will be different this time? Your cherry picked "experts"? |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 12:46 AM | #1124 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
|
19th December 2017, 01:05 AM | #1125 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
So there was a bubble event that time? The prediction was right? What makes the bubble different this time is the difference between that peak of $31 and the recent price of $19,000. This looks like more extreme speculation.
My quotes weren't cherry picked appeals to authority, but the first quotes that Google threw up, and proof that I was not appealing to my own authority but to that of financial analysts in the serious press, and to bankers and other professionals. This has every sign of a classic speculative bubble, and its bursting, while unpredictable in timing, is overwhelmingly probable as a future event. Bitcoin has no value to hold, as it creates no income (unlike share dividends or interest on bank deposits) except potential capital gain when sold, and it seems to have no intrinsic value. Shares in the South Sea Company or the railways or dot com projects might at least give their owners expectations of future dividend income if held over time. And tulip bulbs can be eaten in an emergency, if the unlucky speculator is reduced to hungry destitution. But Bitcoin has no physical manifestation at all. The only thing it has is a price. ETA This morning's bowl of cherries contains these tasty items. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...-schomer-video Here's the Independent, with an "appeal to authority". Meanwhile the concerns mount, the ranks of the clever and powerful people urging caution swell. The latest is UBS chairman Axel Webber, who fears that its rise is unsustainable. He’d like regulators to wade in, fearing that small investors could get wiped out by wild swings in the price.Where indeed? |
19th December 2017, 01:14 AM | #1126 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
You are getting slippery again.
Why do you think that this time the price will drop and not recover again? And if this is not your position then why have you been arguing for page after page after page when I said the same thing in post #1000? |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 01:23 AM | #1127 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
I didn't say that. I don't know if the next peak will be the final pop. What I have said is that it is extremely probable that there will be a final pop, and that many holders of Bitcoin will suffer significant and irretrievable loss when it happens, assuming this follows the well established bubble pattern. It is displaying all the symptoms present in previous episodes of that type.
I'm arguing with you because we don't seem to agree. In your #1000 you stated that bubble commodities
Quote:
So we have plenty to argue about. |
19th December 2017, 02:08 AM | #1128 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
So when push comes to shove all you are saying is that one day, bitcoin will suffer a price drop from which it never recovers but you don't know when and you don't know how.
Like all open ended predictions, that is unfalsifiable and hardly worth all the pages of arguing and irrelevant comparisons and useless quotes that you you have come up with. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 02:36 AM | #1129 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
I think we'll recognise it when it happens. In previous cases there has been a clear end to the boom. You on the other hand seem to think the price is underpinned by some intrinsic merit that will cause it to go up forever, temporary adjustments aside. I don't agree. But indeed I can't predict the timing and cause of an eventual collapse. Nobody ever can; even Newton was caught out in 1720, great genius that he was. This is from Galbraith's indispensable "The Great Crash 1929"
it is in the nature of a speculative boom that almost anything can collapse it. Any serious shock to confidence can cause sales by those speculators who have always hoped to get out before the final collapse but after all possible gains from rising prices have been reaped. Their pessimism will infect those simpler souls who had thought the market might go up forever but who now will change their minds and sell. Soon there will be margin calls, and still others will be forced to sell. So the bubble breaks ... On September 22, the financial pages of the New York papers carried an advertisement ... as follows: “Most investors make money in a bull market, only to lose all profits made — and sometimes more — in the readjustment that inevitably follows.” ... it could have been such thoughts ... which finally brought an end to the boom. What first stirred these doubts we do not know, but neither is it very important that we know. |
19th December 2017, 03:25 AM | #1130 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 03:37 AM | #1131 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
The only other possibility is that it will reach a high but perhaps slightly fluctuating "plateau" and remain there. I think that won't happen because the motive of speculative purchasers is to wait for increases in price and then sell out. Long term holding of Bitcoin makes little sense, as it produces no regular income, unlike share dividends or bank account interest, or government bonds.
Why hold it, if you don't think the price will rise significantly higher? Sell out and take your winnings. |
19th December 2017, 04:08 AM | #1132 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 04:09 AM | #1133 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Helsinki
Posts: 1,133
|
Yep, bitcoin is a vehicle for speculation and it does not have any intrinsic value, we also well know how bubbles work, so the collapse is only a question of time. Of course Keynes (I think) famously said that "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", so the boom can still continue for a good while - my own prediction would be June/July 2018 but we'll see...
Btw, a good summary by Kevin Drum: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dru...form-of-money/ |
19th December 2017, 04:55 AM | #1134 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
What makes you say that a final collapse is inevitable? Historically speaking, unsound investments invariably collapse but sound investments may well stand the test of time.
We don't know which category bitcoin falls into. Some say that bitcoin is unsound because it has no substance or utility. However, that depends on the definition of "substance" and "utility". What we know is that bitcoin is unforgeable and bitcoin transactions are unfalsifiable. That makes it a much more secure medium than many currencies. Bitcoin is in a class all of its own. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 07:24 AM | #1135 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
Bitcoin hasn't gone from $2 to $20,000 because of its attractiveness as a currency medium. It has done so because of extreme speculation.
Quote:
|
19th December 2017, 08:40 AM | #1136 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 09:11 AM | #1137 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
No of course not. Are you saying that all investments are speculative bubbles? Investments that don't crash are those bought and held for the dependable income they yield in the form of dividends, interest, rent or other emoluments. But you don't make millions out of them either.
|
19th December 2017, 09:55 AM | #1138 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 11:14 AM | #1139 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
Like many bubble things in the past. I have said Bitcoin may survive. I don't know its ultimate future, to be sure. But it has become the excuse for a bubble, and I know the bubble's ultimate future. Pop.
Let's test that. Can we agree that unless some real value has entered the Bitcoin trading system, the price rise is a bubble? The only possible source of new value input would be a realisation among the investing public that Bitcoin provides a useful medium of exchange or saving, as a currency or similar device. Good and well, perhaps the increase in price reflects that? Well let's see. The bottom of the last crash in 2011 was $2. It's now at $18,000. Is there any service that you valued in 2011 at $2, for which you are now ready to pay $18,000? I would say there isn't, so the vast majority of the price inflation is speculative. If it is, it will go pop once all the money available to be diverted into these transactions has been absorbed. When will that happen. I don't know. Joe Kennedy is supposed to have sold his stocks before the crash in 1929 when his shoeshine boy started giving him advice on what to buy and sell. He thought, if the boom has now sucked in everything down to the shoeshine boy's nickels and dimes, it's time to get the hell out. And he duly and profitably did. So watch for clues. You still won't know, because it's inherently unpredictable even in principle; but looking for clues is good fun. |
19th December 2017, 11:40 AM | #1140 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
Explain how the bitcoins could be stolen.
Quote:
And a website indicates that there are less than 500,000 actual bitcoins. This is correct because the reward is at 12.5 bitcoins per block. Psion10 - How does one explain 850,000? |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
19th December 2017, 12:34 PM | #1141 |
Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 53,184
|
Please there has been tons of crashes since then. Like the Mt Gox one that cause bitcoin to lose 80% of its value in 4 hours over night, that is far worse than the supposed crashes in property values that only maybe lost 50% of their value.
When will the regular crashes have a long term effect, who knows. |
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
|
19th December 2017, 12:39 PM | #1142 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
|
19th December 2017, 01:22 PM | #1143 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
I don't think you're a nut in fact.
I think you're a very traditional kind of antisemite, circulating allegations about Jewish conspiracies that have no foundation in reality, and quailing before the prospect of having to justify them. Just like your inspiration Eustace Mullins: Eustace Clarence Mullins Jr. (March 9, 1923 – February 2, 2010) was an antisemitic American writer, propagandist, Holocaust denier, and disciple of the poet Ezra Pound. His best-known book is The Secrets of The Federal Reserve, in which he alleged that a group of shadowy organizations had conspired to write the Federal Reserve Act for its own nefarious purposes, and then induced Congress to enact it into law. David Randall called Mullins "one of the world's leading conspiracy theorists." The Southern Poverty Law Center described him as "a one-man organization of hate". |
19th December 2017, 01:28 PM | #1144 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
The conspiracy doesn't have anything to do with whether or not the Rothschilds are jewish. Anti-semitism is the cloak behind which they can hide, without fear of criticism. As I said before, you have a confirmation bias. You're not interested in any evidence, because you're already prepared to dismiss it for one reason or another. But this is a derail from the bitcoin thread.
|
19th December 2017, 01:42 PM | #1145 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
I don't think it is a derail. I think you believe that Bitcoin has a real value because it enables liberty loving people to escape from the Jewish government money conspiracy which has created worthless scam FR notes. Therefore Bitcoin has an intrinsic merit and value. I deny that and have argued against it.
To say that it doesn't matter if the Rothschilds are Jewish because antisemitism is the cloak behind which they can hide, makes no sense whatsoever. If they're hiding behind antisemitism it does matter if they are Jewish, as must be obvious to everyone. Recall also my prediction. If and when the Bitcoin bubble pops, you will tell us that this is the doing of the Rothschilds, destroying a rival to their scam paper money, by short selling the hard-earned possessions of innocent investors. |
19th December 2017, 02:55 PM | #1146 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
I'm not an anti-semite, I don't think Federal Reserve notes are worthless, nor do i think that bitcoin has intrinsic value. So you managed to get all of that absolutely wrong. Congratulations?
Quote:
Quote:
|
19th December 2017, 03:22 PM | #1147 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
who claims the Rothschilds are Khazars? Ah but you won't tell me will you? The Khazar stuff is another well known traditional antisemitic theme, as you must be well aware.
According to the Khazar theory of the new anti-Semites, most Jews today, particularly Ashkenazi Jews, are not racially Jews at all but descendents from the Turkic tribe of Khazars, whose ruling class and parts of its rank and file population converted to Judaism in the 8th or early 9th century CE. Hence, argue the racialists, Ashkenazi Jews have no rights to live in the racially Semitic Middle East and especially not in the Land of Israel. |
19th December 2017, 05:49 PM | #1148 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 8,537
|
|
19th December 2017, 07:42 PM | #1149 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
If a "website" says that then it must be true - NOT.
As at 19 Dec 2017 08:00 there were 16,752,363 bitcoins. (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins) The reward per block is a well known formula that halves every 4 years and a new block is generated every 10 minutes. Under this formula, a maximum of 21,000,000 bitcoins will ever exist. At the time of the MtGox heist, the reward per block was 50 btc. By the end of 2012 there was 10,500,000 btc in existence. So, in late 2011 there would have been around 7,500,000 btc in existence. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
19th December 2017, 09:58 PM | #1150 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
|
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
19th December 2017, 10:26 PM | #1151 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
Eustace Mullins appears to me to be a conspiracy theorist and an antisemite. His holocaust denial is very fanciful and contrary to the documented facts. That said, Jewish influence is substantial and so is their financial clout. I doubt they operate as a cabal or have central planning but they do network intensively among themselves for the financial advancement of Jewish interests. There is no denying that as a group they are extremely intelligent and have benefited many nations in many ways. There is a book on the internet that can be downloaded called "When Victims Rule". The tone is very antisemitic, but the facts seem quite solid when I checked some of them. At 2,000 pages with extensive Jewish sources, it is almost impossible to read. It details the extent of Jewish influence, and some of the problems during their history. It is hard to find facts about the Rothschilds on the internet. They started out as five Jewish brothers and at first hired only Jewish employees. As time went on they married various figures of European royalty. Very secretive for such an influential organization which is a concern. The main culprit Mark Karpeles in the Mt Gox scandal was a Jewish Frenchman and has managed to stay out of prison. Does that matter? Depends on one's point of view and biases. |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
19th December 2017, 10:41 PM | #1152 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
What is "real value"? I am not aware that some thing needs to have an industrial or domestic use (like gold) in order to be desirable. The only "useful" thing about bitcoin is that there is no equal when it comes to rapidly transferring large sums of wealth around the globe without interference.
Bitcoin is so novel that nobody can predict what will happen. I was once foolish enough to predict that the price of bitcoin would double from $1,000 to $2,000 within 6 months. Needless to say, I ended up with egg on my face. I would never have anticipated the current spike. Maybe, if enough big name investors get involved (like central banks), bitcoin will become subject to price manipulations similar to what you get with gold and silver. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
20th December 2017, 01:51 AM | #1153 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
I don't mean anything mysterious. Has the price gone up because of speculation, or has it risen because people are willing to pay $18,000 to have a unit of value they can rapidly transfer sound the globe without interference?
For example, if I buy a postal order of £10 to £99.99 I will be charged 12.5% of the face value, but I am ready to accept that because of the convenience of being able to send money safely by post, so I pay for that service. Is that what is happening on a more impressive scale with Bitcoin? People paying to obtain the transfer advantages you describe? That would be added value, payment for real value. But if the price of Bitcoin is going up mainly or solely because it went up in the past, is going up now and soeculators want to profit from it going up in future then it is a bubble. Like a pyramid selling scam or a Ponzi scheme, and like these it is in danger of disappearing in a puff of smoke. |
20th December 2017, 09:51 AM | #1154 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
20th December 2017, 11:02 AM | #1155 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
Yes well I have said that when bubbles are going to pop is unpredictable even in principle, and I have pointed out that tulips, intercontinental trade by joint stock companies, railways and the internet all survived the early bubbles they generated. So I'm not about to argue with your post.
However I still do disagree with your previous post which had a quite different tone. i don't think the prediction of the bursting of a speculative bubble is unfalsifiable, irrelevant, useless or anything of the sort. I think it's timely and appropriate, as a warning to the unwary investor. |
20th December 2017, 11:38 AM | #1156 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
20th December 2017, 11:42 AM | #1157 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
Psion10:
Mt Gox. Explain how the bitcoins could be stolen. BTW - Bouncy, bouncy - Crrrrraa.... |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
20th December 2017, 11:49 AM | #1158 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
Likewise a joint stock company is not a tulip, and the internet is not a railway. What these things have in common is not intrinsic similarity, but that they have been subjects of speculative bubbles and that the things themselves continued to exist after the bubble had vanished. I think blockchain may do the same, though I don't know for sure. Perfectly possible and not unprecedented if it does.
|
20th December 2017, 02:54 PM | #1159 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
I predicted Bitcoin would not reach 20k. It sure went close, but we are in the process of a price crash right now, from a technical perspective. This lines up nicely with the fundamental zero value of the entity.
|
20th December 2017, 07:41 PM | #1160 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
I'm sure that there is plenty of info out there if you want the nitty gritty details (if memory serves me, it had something to do with faulty encryption).
Suffice to say that if you transfer bitcoins from your personal wallet to the exchange's wallet then the security of your bitcoins is, at most, that of the bitcoin exchange's. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|