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20th December 2017, 09:10 PM | #1161 |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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20th December 2017, 11:16 PM | #1162 |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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21st December 2017, 12:02 AM | #1163 |
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You are. Once a transaction has been confirmed, it is in the blockchain for ever. Otherwise, it's still in your wallet.
What these "experts" ignore is that bitcoin has had many such bubbles but they insist on comparing it to investments that had only one bubble. |
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21st December 2017, 02:56 AM | #1164 |
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Multiple peaks, with earlier ones mistaken for the final bubble, are not unprecedented. Here's a famous one from 1929.
March 25, 1929, after the Federal Reserve warned of excessive speculation, a mini crash occurred as investors started to sell stocks at a rapid pace, exposing the market's shaky foundation. Despite all these economic trouble signs and the market breaks in March and May 1929, stocks resumed their advance in June and the gains continued almost unabated until early September 1929 (the Dow Jones average gained more than 20% between June and September).https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall..._Crash_of_1929 |
21st December 2017, 03:28 AM | #1165 |
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So now you are comparing bitcoin with the NYSE?
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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21st December 2017, 04:19 AM | #1166 |
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21st December 2017, 08:29 AM | #1167 |
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I get it but some refuse to. A bubble has two parts. The rapid speculator rise and the frantic fearful fall. We are still in the first part. If people thought it could be a bubble they would not invest in it, or they think they can get out in time. Psion10 is relentlessly promoting bitcoin. Has he said how much he has bought so far? One should buy in by averaging - a portion every week or so. And then sell in the same way to collect the profit. By now he should have made a very handsome profit. Psion10 - is that right? Some bubbles have a third part - they disappear, never to be seen again. Here is someone recommending that people prepare to get out fast. By keeping their money in a exchange. After advising them not to do that because they are unreliable - just what one needs when the market is plummeting like a lead balloon.
Quote:
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21st December 2017, 10:17 AM | #1168 |
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I am only on a mission against BS.
This thread (and the previous one) is full of the graves of "knowledgeable" posters who confidently predicted the end of bitcoin every other week. We may not know what the future holds for bitcoin but you can be sure that the knockers will be parroting the same epitaph for years to come. |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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21st December 2017, 11:22 AM | #1169 |
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21st December 2017, 06:10 PM | #1170 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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21st December 2017, 08:07 PM | #1171 |
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What on Earth are you talking about? The word "epitaph" means what I said it means. I only have my opinion at stake in this discussion.
Don't tell me you're puffing Bitcoin so vigorously because you've been dabbling in it, and have a substantial holding acquired at speculation-inflated prices? That would be sad. My commiserations if you're in that position! Because here is what the coindesk site is telling us: The price of bitcoin is down more than 25% percent from the all-time high of nearly $20,000 reached this past weekend, market data shows.You've been telling us that bitcoin's new and unprecedented, but this is typical bubble instability, not unprecedented at all. The digital currency had hit a record high of $19,666 on Sunday ... At 8:50 am (3:20 UTC), Bitcoin was trading at $13,366 on the exchange. |
21st December 2017, 08:49 PM | #1172 |
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21st December 2017, 08:51 PM | #1173 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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21st December 2017, 09:07 PM | #1174 |
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21st December 2017, 09:22 PM | #1175 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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21st December 2017, 09:46 PM | #1176 |
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South Sea peaked at £1000. People who bought it there lost a great deal of money, but the big pop only happens once in each bubble episode. Sometimes a previous small movement is mistaken for the big one, as was March 26 1929 on the NYSE. The big one came in October.
Is the current Bitcoin price fall the Big One? I don't know. Could well be. Hindsight will tell us. Prediction in detail is impracticable, but the general pattern of these events is recognisable. |
21st December 2017, 09:56 PM | #1177 |
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21st December 2017, 10:05 PM | #1178 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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21st December 2017, 11:05 PM | #1179 |
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Music is what feelings sound like "Dulce bellum inexpertīs." - Erasmus |
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21st December 2017, 11:08 PM | #1180 |
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You're wrong.
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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22nd December 2017, 01:27 AM | #1181 |
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Now at $12,500 and, according to Business Insider
Chris Weston, head of research at IG Markets in Sydney, said the move appeared based on no particular news and looked “herd driven”.The "no particular news" is absolute classic bubble; that's what makes the pop unpredictable even in principle. It's caused by internal chaotic movements because the bubble was inflated by similar movements, not by any intrinsic merit, even if the traded commodity or underlying technology does, like railways in 1845, have a real and significant value. When the fall bottoms out (Where? I don't know; nobody does) we may see what the real value of Bitcoin as a medium of monetary transfer and store of wealth really is. It'll be some dollars or cents, perhaps, like the amount people are willing to pay over the face value to buy a postal order. Or it may be more than that if it's used by crooks to stash profits from narcotics sales; or it may be nothing at all. I have no idea. |
22nd December 2017, 03:01 AM | #1182 |
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Here's an instance of a piggybacking "Bubble Company" of which there were many examples on the fringes of the South Sea Co in 1720.
But even evidence of that change in direction has raised troubling questions about the market's sustainability after an unprofitable drinkmakers, Long Island Ice Tea Corp, rose nearly 300% in a matter of hours after it changed its name to Long Island Blockchain Corp.What remains to be investigated is the degree of corruption and racketeering going on around cryptocurrency promotion. That, and mutual predation, was a feature of economic life back in 1720. Even the King was up to his neck in financial naughtiness, and politicians were being bought and sold like second hand garments. If that turns out to be the case today, though public morality is much better now than it was in those far off days, then every feature of earlier bubbles will have been exactly replicated this time. |
22nd December 2017, 04:12 AM | #1183 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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22nd December 2017, 05:02 AM | #1184 |
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You'll notice I've not claimed Bitcoin was a scam, but that it may well have created the opportunity for scams to accumulate round it. Galbraith notes the phenomenon of large scale embezzlement during the 1929 boom. It was very pervasive, as people often stole from the companies they were employed by in order to play the market.
They intended to pay the cash back of course, because the market would go up and they would repay what Galbraith calls the "bezzle" when they made a killing. When the market prices stopped rising, this class of miscreants was inevitably doomed. The South Sea Company wasn't conceived as a swindle, though it became quite unscrupulous in marketing its shares. But what of this, from Business Outsider? ... naïve regular people flocked to the irrationally exuberant market, as did other stock trading operations. One of the most unscrupulous of these was called ... A Company for Carrying on an Undertaking of Great Advantage, but Nobody to Know What It Is.The promoters of that scheme collected subscriptions till close of business that day, and then departed on a boat bound for France, I imagine. But what I expect from certain commentators is the explanation, if this downturn is indeed the "big pop", that the crash is all a plot by the Rothschilds and the Federal Reserve selling Bitcoin short, to deprive free born people of the services of Bitcoin so that they'll have to use the scam fiat FR dollar instead. |
22nd December 2017, 05:23 AM | #1185 |
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22nd December 2017, 07:44 AM | #1186 |
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One of the more common tricks with posters in this thread is to conflate bitcoin with bitcoin exchanges. That way, any bitcoin exchange scam becomes a bitcoin scam. The thing is that most of the posters who do this are unable to tell the difference between bitcoin and a bitcoin exchange.
You may have more ability in this regard but you have done exactly the same thing. You have compared bitcoin with shares in a company. Those shares were "unscrupulously" marketed with false information. Nobody is putting out false information about bitcoin (except you). This "ignormamus" examines the facts about bitcoin and explores some of the possible future developments (good and bad). That is a whole lot different to the poster who makes unqualified predictions about bitcoin then retreats into weasel words when challenged: |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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22nd December 2017, 07:56 AM | #1187 |
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None of this is what I have said. You're being disingenuous, to speak politely; and it's pointless for me to refute your posts yet again. As at this writing, BTC is hovering around $11,000. I think it has further to fall, so God help you if you're holding it at any elevated price, or if you have borrowed to buy into it. https://www.etoro.com/markets/btc/chart
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22nd December 2017, 08:33 AM | #1188 |
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22nd December 2017, 10:02 AM | #1189 |
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Extreme volatility is the hallmark of a successful currency (or whatever Bitcoin proponents claim it is).
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22nd December 2017, 10:03 AM | #1190 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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22nd December 2017, 10:42 AM | #1191 |
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So it will happen again? It will again go up above 20,000? I'm not sure about that. And I'm certain this is a bubble and will go pop, exposing holders to irretrievable loss. You are saying it never will? That no matter at what price I buy it, BTC is a good investment over a reasonable timescale?
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22nd December 2017, 11:03 AM | #1192 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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22nd December 2017, 11:37 AM | #1193 |
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Well, I don't know if this is indeed the final crash, but I'm happy to assume it is, for the sake of this enterprise; if you will accept jackasshood, in the contrary case.
From the telegraph 2 hours ago Coinbase - one of the largest cryptocurrency exchange websites - has temporarily disabled buying amid a massive sell-off following Bitcoin's price plunge. "Due to today's high traffic, buys and sells may be temporarily offline. We're working on restoring full availability as soon as possible," Coinbase wrote on its website at 4.35pm (local time). |
22nd December 2017, 11:58 AM | #1194 |
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Sucky currency, too volatile
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22nd December 2017, 12:04 PM | #1195 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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22nd December 2017, 12:17 PM | #1196 |
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Enjoy the ride.
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22nd December 2017, 03:14 PM | #1197 |
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I've been telling people for months now that I think the Bitcoin bubble imploding will start the next economic disaster that nearly tears the modern world apart.
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22nd December 2017, 03:41 PM | #1198 |
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Have its excesses infected public finance to that extent? The Tulip bubble didn't ruin the Dutch economy, because important institutions like the Bank of Amsterdam and the United East Indies Company weren't affected by it.
The 1719 Mississippi scheme, on the other hand, bankrupted France and postponed the acceptance of paper money in that country for decades. The 1929 crash inaugurated, though not immediately, the Depression. I think Bitcoin is pretty crazy, and nearer the Tulip end of the scale. It's sort of laughable. Do you think it's more grave and ominous? |
22nd December 2017, 04:55 PM | #1199 |
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22nd December 2017, 08:00 PM | #1200 |
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The cost of using bitcoin
The last time I examined the blockchain, the total collected in transaction fees was around 1 BTC per block.
An examination of blocks 500613 to 500622 (https://blockchain.info/blocks/1513994444769) shows that this has risen to between 7 BTC and 12 BTC per block. When the block reward halves in 2020, transaction fees will be the primary motivation for mining. The average cost of a transaction is around 0.004 BTC ($50 at current prices) and a little less than 1% of the value of the transaction. What all this means is that the days of buying a pizza with bitcoin are long gone. Unless you are buying or selling bitcoin, the only reason you would use it in a transaction is if you were dealing in large sums of money. |
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