|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
10th January 2018, 11:13 AM | #1481 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
In the 1980s I heard it been sold on the radio as "gearing". If the stock moved up by 2% you got a 20% return if one had a 10x gearing. They never told people that if it moved down by 2% one lost 20% - and then would have to pay in the money to cover the losses. I have often wondered how much humans have changed in their ability to reason and calculate. Apart from learning, are our brains much the same as 10,000 years ago? Given the repeats of scams and rip-offs it would seem that not much has changed since the time of the Egyptians. The snake oil is always just new and improved, or a new wonder discovery. A new paradigm.
Quote:
|
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
10th January 2018, 11:23 AM | #1482 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
And if I buy a Kruger rand? Is my investment safer? If I take it to any gas station in a crisis I will likely get a tankful. BTW - there are times where one can fairly reliably tell the future. A bus has lost it brakes and is headed for a cliff. Given the law of gravity, most people could tell that it will not end well. Crypto is headed for a digital cliff, and given the fundamentals and "laws" of economics, most can tell it also will not end well. |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
10th January 2018, 03:08 PM | #1483 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
|
10th January 2018, 06:00 PM | #1484 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
What are you trying to prove here? There are many more ways and opportunities to leverage investments today than existed in 1929. In fact, international movements of money have little to do with imports and exports any more. It is all financial derivatives. The whole world is built on a house of cards.
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
10th January 2018, 06:15 PM | #1485 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
If your thorough research shows that the kruger rand is an extremely stable currency then I won't argue with you. All I can say is that the standard deviation of how much petrol you could buy (directly or indirectly) with bitcoin in a year's time would be much higher than with a kruger rand.
duh. Unless you can identify what has suddenly become defective about bitcoin (but was working fine before) this is just a stupid non-sequitur. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
10th January 2018, 09:44 PM | #1486 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
|
10th January 2018, 10:14 PM | #1487 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
10th January 2018, 10:19 PM | #1488 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
Nope. Bitcoin gets "sold" as an amazing substitute for fiat money. The bus climbs the hill. People start to learn more about the lack of value and stability of bitcoin. The bus starts downhill. People panic about owning valueless bitcoin. The bus has lost it's brakes. The cliff looms large ahead.
The complexity is hiding the problems with bitcoin so the panic starts with vague worrying and the sheep mill about. The value bounces up and down before the sheep stampede for the exit. |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
10th January 2018, 11:26 PM | #1489 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
Warren Buffet has no position in cryptos. They will end badly he states, which is the least surprising thing he ever said.
Peter Thiel invested 20 million last year, he is a billionaire, so the investment is statistically irrelevant. I think the crash is happening now, technically, fundamentally. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11973270 |
11th January 2018, 12:19 AM | #1490 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
Still an invalid analogy. There are no brakes to speak of in bitcoin. The lack of stability in bitcoin was known right from the get go. The cliff is purely a figment of your imagination.
There is no shortage of fools looking to get rich quick. However these are not the sheep. The sheep are the ones who say, "Something is bad therefore bitcoin is bad". |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
11th January 2018, 12:24 AM | #1491 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
11th January 2018, 01:33 AM | #1492 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: South Africa
Posts: 3,485
|
South Korea plans to ban trading in cryptos - causes widespread sell-offs.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-s...-idUSKBN1F002A |
__________________
This signature is intended to imitate people. |
|
11th January 2018, 02:23 AM | #1493 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
|
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
11th January 2018, 02:33 AM | #1494 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
11th January 2018, 05:18 AM | #1495 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
|
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
11th January 2018, 07:50 AM | #1496 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
What has become defective is concern that the price has reached such an elevated level that it will soon cease to rise further. The only thing that "works" about Bitcoin is its role as an object of speculation, and that will end at some maximum price. Have we passed that? Nobody knows. But Bitcoin owners want to get out before the crash, after they have offloaded their holdings to the simpletons and libertarian ideologues who may still want to buy these things.
Here's a question for you: in 1720, what suddenly became defective about South Sea Company shares when they reached £1,000, but was working fine before? That question doesn't look like a stupid non-sequitur to me. |
11th January 2018, 09:05 AM | #1497 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
Except that the article says nothing about 2011 whatsoever. It is just opinions from Johnny Smith about something completely different.
It doesn't become fact just because you make it up. 2011 has proven you completely and utterly wrong. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
11th January 2018, 09:21 AM | #1498 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 9,800
|
Ironic news: the North American Bitcoin Conference is no longer accepting bitcoin for admission.
|
11th January 2018, 09:24 AM | #1499 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
Like I said in the post above: something doesn't become a fact just because you made it up.
Puh-leeze! South Sea got its value on the strength of its monopoly on trade with South America even though the War of the Spanish Succession rendered any trade moot. That didn't stop the company promoting "extravagant rumours" about its trade prospects in an attempt to pump up its share price. The maintained a veneer of respectability by trading its shares for government debt but that could only work as long as its share price continued to rise. Ultimately when the truth was known about its trade prospects, the house of cards fell down. This fraud has nothing whatsoever to do with bitcoin today but in your mind, South Sea was bad therefore bitcoin is bad. Now you know that it absolutely is. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
11th January 2018, 02:09 PM | #1500 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
|
|
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh! |
|
11th January 2018, 02:39 PM | #1501 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
With bitcoin trading at 13161 there has been just one daily close lower since december 7. This in itself means little, but the news cycle keeps deteriorating with Warren Buffet laughing at bitcoin. It really does look an urgent matter to cash up bitcoin. Only a tiny fraction of holders can ever convert to greenbacks if I understand the concept.
|
11th January 2018, 04:27 PM | #1502 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
|
Why would that be? Too many people cashing out resembling a bank run on the exchanges?
I've seen several websites claim that 4% of holders own 90% of the Bitcoins out there. If Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, these guys are the Madoffs. Can anybody confirm this statistic? https://howmuch.net/articles/bitcoin...h-distribution |
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh! |
|
11th January 2018, 05:54 PM | #1503 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
What we don't know is the average price at which these various holdings were acquired, so if the motive for holding is speculative capital gain, we don't know what an x% holding is "worth". Was it bought at a fraction of a dollar per coin, or at 3 dollars, or at 19 thousand dollars?
In the case of Madoff's swindle the motive for holding was a pretty stable return of twelve or so percent per year. Not even the appearance of an emolument like that is enjoyed by holders of cryptos. Now trading just under $13,000. |
11th January 2018, 08:28 PM | #1504 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
11th January 2018, 10:11 PM | #1505 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
|
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
11th January 2018, 10:47 PM | #1506 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
All strawman arguments put up by anti-bitcoiners.
Everybody else knows that it takes at least 10 minutes to get a payment confirmed (1 hour if you want the confirmation to be absolute) and that depends on what you offer as a transaction fee. Everybody else also knew that as the block rewards decrease and the number of transactions increased that the transaction fees would also increase. On the transaction time front, you can't pay for your groceries at the supermarket with bitcoin (unless the supermarket is willing to accept 0 confirmations) but bitcoin is a darn sight faster (and only recently just as costly) than an international telegraphic transfer which can take weeks. (International telegraphic transfer was the only way that I could get money from overseas several years ago). |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
12th January 2018, 01:40 AM | #1507 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
|
We don't know that, but it is far more likely that they were acquired when they were cheap then when they were expensive.
The current market cap is 230 billion dollars, 90% of that is in the hands of only 4% of the holders. And I suspect that we're talking about 4% of the wallets, not people. It stands to reason that people who have a lot of Bitcoin would spread these out over multiple wallets. So, that makes the elite of Bitcoin holders a very small group of very rich people indeed. |
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh! |
|
12th January 2018, 01:48 AM | #1508 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
In Africa there is a cellphone service where people can transfer their cash almost instantly between countries. I can pay for my groceries with confidence with a bank debit card. People in England are surprised when a South African makes a card payment and his cell-phone rings to alert him to the payment going through. This is just a matter of technology catching up. Not some scheme run by a bunch of shadowy unknowns who can change the rules as they (who is they anyway?) feel like. And by "exchanges" who can set the rules as to when they pay in fiat currency. If they don't run away with your money first. I personally think the blockchain concept is great. But not cryptocurrency. Another myth "Bitcoin is the first decentralized currency". No it is not. Gold is and still is. |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
12th January 2018, 02:04 AM | #1509 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
|
I recently talked to a guy who works in Africa, I think it may have been Kenya. Smartphones have effectively made the carriers the biggest banks in the country. People not only transfer money from phone-to-phone, they also crowdfund using social networks. So, if grandma needs an operation, you get friends and family to chip in.
I regret not asking him what currency they used. The question is; do you need something like bitcoin for this? You could use digital dollars or some variation of Airmiles, litecoin or whatever. The jury is very much out on this and it is clear that things are shifting. But in the end, money is a trust issue and I suspect that countries will be more trusted than decentralised currencies (but this is a human psychology issue and attitudes may change completely). I think that a Coin issued by a huge blue-chip corporation might work too. I'm thinking Google, Apple, IBM. |
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh! |
|
12th January 2018, 02:08 AM | #1510 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
|
12th January 2018, 03:05 AM | #1511 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
|
12th January 2018, 03:20 AM | #1512 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
The algo just said buy bitcoin.
Last 13919 That is computer driven, no emotion..... |
12th January 2018, 03:22 AM | #1513 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
Ideally you would have a blockchain technology based on the national currency. If you could transfer currency between your bank account and your digital wallet then cash would become near obsolete. You would probably need a consensus model (like ripple) to avoid the power consumption problems that bitcoin engenders.
Unfortunately, the banks won't go for it. I have seen proposals for central banks to issue digital wallets but they are proposing something that is even more centralized than the current banking system. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
12th January 2018, 03:25 AM | #1514 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 11,941
|
This beast is driven by greed.
Greed we all suffer from, so give it reign, it will end badly but when? |
12th January 2018, 06:45 AM | #1515 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
You are right about silver. I thought of mentioning it, but gold was the accepted "gold standard" of the ancient world, and still is today. China backs its reserve currency (trying to take over from the dollar in oil sales with Russia) by saying you can exchange it for real gold if you wish. |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
12th January 2018, 06:55 AM | #1516 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
In South Africa the tribal people have long used "stokvels" as a savings and as an insurance. One in every two black adults. They pool their money, and then a "committee" invests it in a savings bank like the Post Office where it is very secure. Or keep it in a safe place. They then pay out for funerals or house purchases and the like. There are many different types, and some professionals try to make a business out of it by collecting "fees". The investors will suffer if they cross the community. They do not have the assets to run and hide. They use the local currency. |
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
12th January 2018, 06:57 AM | #1517 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: South Africa
Posts: 4,801
|
|
__________________
**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
|
12th January 2018, 10:05 AM | #1518 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
|
12th January 2018, 10:12 AM | #1519 |
Guest
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,038
|
This is actually a good point. In fact, the more I learn, the more I realize that the demonetization of silver by the Coinage Act of 1873, often referred to as the crime of 1873, was perhaps the most devastating blow to sound money in the United States. Silver was known as the "money of the people", and this act at once demonetized it, shrinking the money supply and devastating the economy, as well as concentrating monetary power in the hands of elites (gold, and the "gold standard").
|
12th January 2018, 11:08 AM | #1520 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
Silver was losing value against gold. Various agencies demonetised it; not only the USA.
Here's the Latin Monetary UnionWP In 1873 the value of silver dropped significantly, followed by a sharp increase in silver imports in the LMU countries, particularly in France and Belgium.[12] By 1873, the decreasing value of silver made it profitable to mint silver in exchange for gold at the Union's standard rate of 15.5 ounces to 1. Indeed, in all of 1871 and 1872 the French mint had received just 5,000,000 francs of silver for conversion to coin, but in 1873 alone received 154,000,000 francs. Fearing an influx of silver coinage, the member nations of the Union agreed in Paris on January 30, 1874, to limit the free conversion of silver temporarily. By 1878, with no recovery in the silver price in sight, minting of silver coinage was suspended absolutely |
Thread Tools | |
|
|