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Tags donald trump , political predictions , political speculation , presidential pardons , Trump controversies

View Poll Results: Will Trump pardon himself?
Yes 48 82.76%
No 10 17.24%
Voters: 58. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11th January 2021, 10:29 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Okay, so here's a strategy.

Every single campaign out there has, at some point, committed an accidental breach of some sort of election law.
....
So, Biden takes office, and issues himself a pardon for a single such incidence, and then instructs the DoJ to go ahead and charge him for this single instance anyways.
...
At which point Biden submits a brief agreeing with the DoJ, and asks the court to rule against him, establishing the precedent that the self-pardon is invalid. Biden pays a nominal fine for the technical violation of election law, and then Trump is left wide open for Federal charges.
Here in Canada, I think the prime minister has the ability to ask the court to rule on certain constitutional issues BEFORE they are actually brought to the supreme court through the appeals process.

I wonder why the U.S. doesn't have the same sort of mechanism in place. (or maybe they do, they just don't use it.)
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Old 11th January 2021, 10:39 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Here in Canada, I think the prime minister has the ability to ask the court to rule on certain constitutional issues BEFORE they are actually brought to the supreme court through the appeals process.

I wonder why the U.S. doesn't have the same sort of mechanism in place. (or maybe they do, they just don't use it.)
Article iii section ii limits their jurisdiction to "cases and controversies." I believe that is the part that has been understood to restrict them from answering questions.
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Old 11th January 2021, 12:56 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Here in Canada, I think the prime minister has the ability to ask the court to rule on certain constitutional issues BEFORE they are actually brought to the supreme court through the appeals process.

I wonder why the U.S. doesn't have the same sort of mechanism in place. (or maybe they do, they just don't use it.)
The short answer is that in the USA, the court system has always been very reactive as opposed to being proactive.
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Old 11th January 2021, 12:57 PM   #44
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White House counsel and Barr warned Trump not to self-pardon

Quote:
Washington (CNN) - White House counsel Pat Cipollone and former Attorney General Bill Barr have warned President Donald Trump that they do not believe he should pardon himself, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.
CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/polit...don/index.html
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:14 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
White House counsel and Barr warned Trump not to self-pardon
Then they added "and whatever you do, do NOT stick this fork into that power outlet! Only OBAMA can do that!" and left the room.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:15 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
White House counsel and Barr warned Trump not to self-pardon



CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/polit...don/index.html


Well, it's a lock then. The best way to get Trump to do something stupid is to tell him not to do something stupid.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:20 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
There is no "technical."

"The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment."

That's it. That's the whole thing. That's all it says. There's no technicality beyond that.

Everything else is either tradition or someone's interpretation.
ON the other hand, back in the 1970s (when Nixon was all the rage) the Department of Justice stated the following:

"Under the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case, the President cannot pardon himself".

I think their argument is that even though the section on pardons doesn't say anything about self-pardons, a pardon has the president acting as a judge of sorts.

Some legal opinions. From: CNBC

Against pardoning himself:
"The better view is that a ban on self-pardons is implicit. Giving the president the power to be a judge in his own criminal case is inconsistent with this being a rule of law society"

"... much of constitutional law is based on reasoning from the underlying design of the Constitution and the structures it creates, and a presidential self-pardon is so radically inconsistent with the Constitution’s commitments to (1) limited government; (2) the separation of powers; (3) and elected officials being accountable to the rule of law"

"In US v. Nixon, the Court basically said that Nixon as the subject of a criminal investigation did not speak for the government and therefore could not withhold the tapes from the prosecutor who did. This case teaches that the president cannot act in an official capacity to benefit himself against an authorized criminal prosecution."

"A pardon is by its very nature when one person pardons another. The point is, the constitution uses the word pardon, and a pardon is by very nature a situation that involves two people"

In favor of pardoning himself:
"There is no expressed limitation governing whom the president may or may not pardon. Therefore it seems quite clear to me that the President may pardon himself"
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:23 PM   #48
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Well yeah but a lot of "Of course we didn't spell it out because we never thought anyone would be stupid enough to do it or contrarian enough to defend it" stuff just isn't anymore because of Trump.

"Nobody tried it before Trump so there's no precedence" is a bad thing to pin our hopes on.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:26 PM   #49
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Well, as I said, there's no apparent downside to the attempt to self-pardon, so even if it's overwhelmingly likely to be shot down, there's no reason not to try.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:27 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Well, as I said, there's no apparent downside to the attempt to self-pardon, so even if it's overwhelmingly likely to be shot down, there's no reason not to try.
If there is an upside to Trump it's going to be that after he's gone there be nothing left for someone to "try" to do for the first time.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:30 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Well, as I said, there's no apparent downside to the attempt to self-pardon, so even if it's overwhelmingly likely to be shot down, there's no reason not to try.
Well, as I suggested before, there is one potential downside I can think of...

That it might possibly affect him negatively on state-level charges.

Something like:
Jury Member in New York (on Trump's tax fraud charges): "I was going to find him not guilty, but his pardon means he must have done something wrong"
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:31 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
I think he will.
No, He doesn't have the manners to ask for a pardon after a Trump
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:35 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Well, as I said, there's no apparent downside to the attempt to self-pardon, so even if it's overwhelmingly likely to be shot down, there's no reason not to try.
Quite true.

In fact, it may even be rather amusing to see an ex-President Trump sue the U. S. Constitution for not giving him the power to over-ride the U. S. Constitution as former President Trump wanted to do.
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Old 11th January 2021, 01:57 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Well, in that case the question is, does the paperwork for issuing a pardon have to come from an official white house lawyer?

Could Trump get someone like Rudy Guilianni to write up the pardon? Or could Trump just take a copy of Nixon's pardon, replace Nixon's name with his own, and sign it? (Well, changing a few things like the dates and whatnot).
No he couldn’t - I really mean that: there is no way he could find a copy of that pardon, print it out or even photocopy it, cross out the relevant bits and put in the date and his name all on his own.
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Old 11th January 2021, 02:17 PM   #55
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He's probably in the Lincoln Bedroom pardoning himself right now. (I suppose that's what the kids are calling it these days.)
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Old 11th January 2021, 03:43 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
There is no "technical."

"The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment."

That's it. That's the whole thing. That's all it says. There's no technicality beyond that.

Everything else is either tradition or someone's interpretation.
From what I remember hearing, this is only on the federal level. He's still on the hook for any state crime.
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Old 11th January 2021, 03:53 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Well, as I said, there's no apparent downside to the attempt to self-pardon, so even if it's overwhelmingly likely to be shot down, there's no reason not to try.
If he pre-emptively pardons himself, people (maybe even prosecutors) will argue that he knew he violated the law. Why pardon yourself if you did nothing wrong? Trump's counter-argument will be that it was to shield himself from bogus prosecution, but he can defend himself against a bogus prosecution in court. He's flooding the zone. It could buy him time, but it's also more evidence that he abuses the legal system. He's also very likely to lose, which he'll spin into a persecution narrative. After all, the Constitutional scholars on Parler think the Vice President can choose the President, so a self-pardon is not far-fetched.
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Old 11th January 2021, 03:56 PM   #58
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He'll try, it will be challenged and overturned. Even Republicans don't want a President who is totally above the law, because he might be a Democrat.
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Old 11th January 2021, 04:18 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
He'll try, it will be challenged and overturned. Even Republicans don't want a President who is totally above the law, because he might be a Democrat.
Only if there will be any Democrat president in future.
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Old 11th January 2021, 05:00 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
Are there any formal requirements for a presidential pardon?

I so hope there are, because Trump's crack legal team would screw it up.
You're joking I assume but note that White House counsel Pat Cipollone is one of the people not happy with Trumps actions on Jan 6. If there is any kind of specific paperwork or process required he may not be cooperating. So your question is interesting. Does anyone know? I know Trump has tweeted pardons before but did those actually count as the official record or is there some requirement more than Trump just tweeting or sharpieing it?
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Old 11th January 2021, 05:05 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
There is no "technical."

"The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment."

That's it. That's the whole thing. That's all it says. There's no technicality beyond that.

Everything else is either tradition or someone's interpretation.

It doesn't follow that there is no technicality beyond that. There's plenty of technicality in him being CIC of the Armies despite it not being mentioned in that paragraph.
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Old 11th January 2021, 05:57 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
He'll try, it will be challenged and overturned. Even Republicans don't want a President who is totally above the law, because he might be a Democrat.
Not to mention that allowing a Republican president to pardon himself for inciting a riot while the folks who rioted go to jail for it is probably not a look the GOP will want to have down the line.
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Old 11th January 2021, 06:14 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by turingtest View Post
Not to mention that allowing a Republican president to pardon himself for inciting a riot while the folks who rioted go to jail for it is probably not a look the GOP will want to have down the line.
Which GOP? The Trump Republican Party, or the other one which is rapidly coming into existence. The trademark lawsuits are going to be awesome.
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Old 11th January 2021, 06:30 PM   #64
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As with others, I think he will try to do it. Whether it is accepted or not, I have no idea.

Presumably we will find out.

1. Senate convicts Trump in impeachment.
2. Trump takes this to through the courts and eventually to the Supreme Court.
3. Supreme Court rules...?

On the other hand, his self-pardon may give Republicans an excuse not to convict.

"Ah, well, I would definitely think long and hard about this one, but if the pardon done fit I must acquit." said former majority leader, Mitch McConnell.
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Old 11th January 2021, 06:47 PM   #65
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The poll is specific. Yes, Trump will pardon himself. And with the current makeup of the SCOTUS it may work.
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Old 11th January 2021, 07:13 PM   #66
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Ah wait, he cannot pardon himself in the case of an impeachment, so that's good.

All the more reason why he must be impeached.
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Old 11th January 2021, 07:23 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by sarge View Post
The poll is specific. Yes, Trump will pardon himself. And with the current makeup of the SCOTUS it may work.
Not necessarily.

The conservatives on the supreme court are eager overturn abortion laws, etc. They are dedicated to implementing their right-wing ideals.

Allowing Trump to be pardoned might be counter-productive.... it would be a rallying cry for Democrats who want to pack the court. From their point of view, it is probably better to keep a low profile, let Trump fry (because he is no longer useful), and allow them to overturn Roe v Wade when their position is more secure.

Remember, the court unanimously rejected Trump's attempt to challenge election results.

(Note that I am not defending judges like Drunky McRapeface or the Stepford Wife... just pointing out that they probably don't feel any particular loyalty to Stubby McBonespurs.)
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Old 11th January 2021, 07:31 PM   #68
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He can TRY to pardon himself. It will probably fail to uphold if challenged. And I'm betting his staff, who have been desperately trying to save Donny from himself this last week, will tell him it went through fine, but in reality they will tear up the memo and burn the scraps.
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Old 11th January 2021, 07:37 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by sarge View Post
The poll is specific. Yes, Trump will pardon himself. And with the current makeup of the SCOTUS it may work.
I wouldn't bet that. Few Constitutional law experts believe POTUS can do that. The DOJ memo that says POTUS cannot be indicted also says POTUS cannot pardon himself.

But neither has ever been tested.
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Old 11th January 2021, 10:41 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
Only if there will be any Democrat president in future.
Future Democrat Presidents are almost a certainty, this is one of the things that Republicans are well aware of. They got lucky with Trump, only a few hundred thousand votes over three States handed him a win, but as more and more States become urbanised and start to shift towards Blue, the less hold the Republicans have on the Presidency.

They know full well that Texas is heading towards being a swing state, one of the reasons that they are really trying to hold Florida.

But the thing is, that each election the needle moves towards bluer states, for the Presidency. Oddly it tends to be the other way for the Senate.

With younger more liberal votes coming in, older more conservative votes dying off, an increase in diversity, and a swing in the Suburbs towards the Democrats as they cease to be bastions of the white middle-class family, and start to become more diverse as well, this all points to the Democrats getting more and more control over the Presidency in years to come. Expect to see more attempts of voter suppression and fear-mongering from the Republicans, because that's pretty much all they have left to eck out a victory.
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Old 12th January 2021, 02:05 AM   #71
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There's a report going round that Trump's aides have warned him that a self-pardon would open him up to massive civil liability, as a result of which he's thrown a tantrum and decided he's not going to pardon anyone else either. I have no idea how credible this is, but if true I'd say it's an excellent result all round.

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Old 12th January 2021, 02:28 AM   #72
Darat
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
There's a report going round that Trump's aides have warned him that a self-pardon would open him up to massive civil liability, as a result of which he's thrown a tantrum and decided he's not going to pardon anyone else either. I have no idea how credible this is, but if true I'd say it's an excellent result all round.

Dave
Certainly sounds like Trump and because it supports what I said earlier:


“ Part of the reason I think he will is because the likes of his daughter and son-in-law and lawyer will want pardons and with Trump unless they can make him think he is getting something in exchange for their pardons he has no reason to grant them pardons.”

I’m choosing it as my “facts”!
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Old 12th January 2021, 02:36 AM   #73
The Great Zaganza
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I'm just wondering why Trump hasn't pardoned his kids yet.
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Old 12th January 2021, 02:43 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I'm just wondering why Trump hasn't pardoned his kids yet.
Probably forgotten about them.
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Old 12th January 2021, 06:36 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
(...) With younger more liberal votes coming in, older more conservative votes dying off, an increase in diversity, and a swing in the Suburbs towards the Democrats as they cease to be bastions of the white middle-class family, and start to become more diverse as well, this all points to the Democrats getting more and more control over the Presidency in years to come. Expect to see more attempts of voter suppression and fear-mongering from the Republicans, because that's pretty much all they have left to eck out a victory.
All you optimistic claims do is pointing out time limit for transforming country into rightwing authoritarian state.
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Old 12th January 2021, 06:52 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I'm just wondering why Trump hasn't pardoned his kids yet.
Because there's nothing in it for him, of course.
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Old 12th January 2021, 07:02 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
All you optimistic claims do is pointing out time limit for transforming country into rightwing authoritarian state.
Yes. This isn't a novel point or a secret to anyone paying attention. The GOP has been hostile to the concept of democracy for some time for this very reason. Voter suppression, gerrymandering, etc.

We are near the end of the viability of white supremacy within the guise of democracy. It was never going to go gentle into that good night.

There was going to be this sort of violence four years ago if Clinton won. The tragedy is that these forces have had four extra years of being emboldened and gaining allies within the power structure which is going to make this so much worse than it needed to be.
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Old 12th January 2021, 08:06 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Because there's nothing in it for him, of course.


Dream scenario: Trump pardons all his kids, and they all give a massive group sigh of relief, and announce: "Finally! Now we can dish on all the **** he had us doing!"

Trump goes to jail, and the kids take over all his money&property, not even putting a single cent in his commissary account.
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Old 12th January 2021, 10:47 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Dream scenario: Trump pardons all his kids, and they all give a massive group sigh of relief, and announce: "Finally! Now we can dish on all the **** he had us doing!"

Trump goes to jail, and the kids take over all his money&property, not even putting a single cent in his commissary account.
...and then they find out that after all the debts are paid, they get to share $38,50.
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Old 12th January 2021, 11:03 AM   #80
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Al Bundy to his son: "That's it! I've had it. You're out of the will. Wait that's not a punishment. You're in the will! You'll owe millions!"
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