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Tags donald trump , tariffs , Trump controversies

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Old 1st March 2018, 12:44 PM   #1
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Trump's Tariffs

"Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum to shore up the struggling industries, capping a fierce, months-long internal debate that divided some of the President's top advisers."

I view this as a good thing. Americans buy way too much crap. It's not good for the country or the environment. If Trump goes through with this, it should tamp down our rampant consumerism a bit.
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Old 1st March 2018, 01:11 PM   #2
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Good luck with that.
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Old 1st March 2018, 01:23 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by fagin View Post
Good luck with that.
It will definitely hurt in the short term. Might even bring on a recession, who knows.
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Old 1st March 2018, 01:25 PM   #4
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Oh goodie. A trade war. Just what the world needs.
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Old 1st March 2018, 02:04 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
"Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum to shore up the struggling industries, capping a fierce, months-long internal debate that divided some of the President's top advisers."

I view this as a good thing. Americans buy way too much crap. It's not good for the country or the environment. If Trump goes through with this, it should tamp down our rampant consumerism a bit.
One of the problems with this is the assumption that Americans are the end consumer of this imported steel. This isn't the case - most of the steel is raw material crafted into new products intended for export.

It's favouring steel foundries over more advanced steel producer/exporters. Americans will feel it in net job losses as these more modern advanced businesses lose competitiveness to overseas factories.


This is why the clause Trump is using is not an economic argument - he's claiming it is a matter of national security.



ETA: regarding the environment... I doubt there will be an ecological gain. Steel getting more expensive may just drive substitution. Steel framing for drywall getting too expensive? Use wood, chop down some forests.
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Old 1st March 2018, 02:11 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
...... Steel framing for drywall getting too expensive? Use wood, chop down some forests.
There's no comparison. Wood is a crop. It grows, gets harvested, it re-grows. It is also sustainable, unlike steel, and is very low carbon. It is entirely wasteful to be using steel for something like stud walls.

You are right in principle, though, just chose a poor example to illustrate it. there will be substitution. Hopefully, one of the things substituted will be Trump.
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Old 1st March 2018, 02:23 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
One of the problems with this is the assumption that Americans are the end consumer of this imported steel. This isn't the case - most of the steel is raw material crafted into new products intended for export.

It's favouring steel foundries over more advanced steel producer/exporters. Americans will feel it in net job losses as these more modern advanced businesses lose competitiveness to overseas factories.


This is why the clause Trump is using is not an economic argument - he's claiming it is a matter of national security.



ETA: regarding the environment... I doubt there will be an ecological gain. Steel getting more expensive may just drive substitution. Steel framing for drywall getting too expensive? Use wood, chop down some forests.
Good points.
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Old 1st March 2018, 02:32 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
"Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum to shore up the struggling industries, capping a fierce, months-long internal debate that divided some of the President's top advisers."

I view this as a good thing. Americans buy way too much crap. It's not good for the country or the environment. If Trump goes through with this, it should tamp down our rampant consumerism a bit.
We buy too much stuff?

Do you know much about this kind of trade war?

See the stock market take a dive? Wonder what they know you don't?

OTOH, the adults in the room are slow walking actual legislation because they understand this is just little Trumpy in a bad mood over all the bad news bears that invaded his happy time. It's all theater, Trump theater where he plays the MAGA star and people clap and pay attention to him.

When he finds out this is going to give him more negative coverage he'll have another Tweet attack and he'll pick another bit of BS to put on the next show.
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Old 1st March 2018, 02:47 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
We buy too much stuff?
Why is this a surprise? It would take what, three planets to supply the needed materials if everyone on Earth lived like us. We generate more trash, per capita, than any other country.

ETA: there are a couple of countries worse than us.
Quote:
Do you know much about this kind of trade war?

See the stock market take a dive? Wonder what they know you don't?

OTOH, the adults in the room are slow walking actual legislation because they understand this is just little Trumpy in a bad mood over all the bad news bears that invaded his happy time. It's all theater, Trump theater where he plays the MAGA star and people clap and pay attention to him.

When he finds out this is going to give him more negative coverage he'll have another Tweet attack and he'll pick another bit of BS to put on the next show.


Politically, this will be a nightmare for Trump. Prices will jump immediately. Countries will retaliate. It will take a long time for steel companies to ramp up production. I was always leery about outsourcing our manufacturing to other countries. Prices dropped, but that doesn't mean it was necessarily good for the country.

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Old 1st March 2018, 03:29 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
One of the problems with this is the assumption that Americans are the end consumer of this imported steel. This isn't the case - most of the steel is raw material crafted into new products intended for export.

It's favouring steel foundries over more advanced steel producer/exporters. Americans will feel it in net job losses as these more modern advanced businesses lose competitiveness to overseas factories.


This is why the clause Trump is using is not an economic argument - he's claiming it is a matter of national security.



ETA: regarding the environment... I doubt there will be an ecological gain. Steel getting more expensive may just drive substitution. Steel framing for drywall getting too expensive? Use wood, chop down some forests.
The wood used for framing around here is almost entirely imported, from Canada.
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Old 1st March 2018, 03:44 PM   #11
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The one issue Trump is firmest on is trade. That is really unfortunate, but nobody can say it comes as much of a surprise.
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Old 1st March 2018, 05:51 PM   #12
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It's worse then unfortunate, it is going to be disasterous unless Congress begins pushing back on his idiotic proposols. I am not holding my breath.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 05:13 AM   #13
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Protectionism works for 2 or 3 years, so it'll gain Trump his re-election; domage.

In 2015 - last year with detailed spreadsheets- the Argentina-USA bilateral trade of goods was this way:

Argentina exported 3382 million USD to the States, including aluminium and steel
United States exported 7655 million USD to Argentina.

Since Trump's arrival all kind of prohibition and barriers have been lifted on Argentine produce and manufactures exported to the United States.

My proposal is having a 20% compensatory tax on all products imported from the USA as a retaliation for them being stupid and lifting barriers on a country who buys from them way more than it sells to them.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 05:50 AM   #14
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If a country wishes to tax their people to subsidize our consumption....we are the winners of that deal. We certainly are not being hurt by it.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 07:24 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
Protectionism works for 2 or 3 years, so it'll gain Trump his re-election; domage.
Maybe not. The EU's retaliation will specifically target republican districts and it will come within days of the Trump tariffs.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 07:43 AM   #16
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This was a campaign promise from Trump during the election.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 07:48 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Why is this a surprise? It would take what, three planets to supply the needed materials if everyone on Earth lived like us. We generate more trash, per capita, than any other country.

ETA: there are a couple of countries worse than us.




Politically, this will be a nightmare for Trump. Prices will jump immediately. Countries will retaliate. It will take a long time for steel companies to ramp up production. I was always leery about outsourcing our manufacturing to other countries. Prices dropped, but that doesn't mean it was necessarily good for the country.
Was curious about this so had a quick check and there doesn't seem to be any state owned steel companies in the USA so in what way is it "ours"?
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Old 2nd March 2018, 07:50 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Maybe not. The EU's retaliation will specifically target republican districts and it will come within days of the Trump tariffs.
I'm not sure that they'll be sophisticated enough to hit at Trump-supporting areas, but I can be pretty sure they'll be working out what will be hurting the USA without hurting the EU.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 07:52 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Was curious about this so had a quick check and there doesn't seem to be any state owned steel companies in the USA so in what way is it "ours"?
Employing Americans, and with factories in the USA. Other than extreme socialists, I guess that's what most people would recognise as "ours" when it comes to industries.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 07:57 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
There's no comparison. Wood is a crop. It grows, gets harvested, it re-grows. It is also sustainable, unlike steel, and is very low carbon. It is entirely wasteful to be using steel for something like stud walls.
Only if ecologically speaking a "Tree farm" and a "Forest" are the same thing.

Forests are complex eco systems. You can't chop them down, plant new ones, and have it all add up.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 08:14 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Maybe not. The EU's retaliation will specifically target republican districts...
how come?

Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
...and it will come within days of the Trump tariffs.
I doubt that. Months ago Trump banned 1.2 billion of biodiesel exports from Argentina and we're still trying to negotiate.

Sanctions from the WTO take time, and in the end Trump will have the States withdrawn from it.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 08:19 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The wood used for framing around here is almost entirely imported, from Canada.

...and he was making noises about adding tariffs there, as well.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 08:40 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Only if ecologically speaking a "Tree farm" and a "Forest" are the same thing.

Forests are complex eco systems. You can't chop them down, plant new ones, and have it all add up.
You can actually, other than in thin-soiled tropical regions. The re-planting bit is the one thing you don't do, as that tends to compress the soil and produce a mono-culture. Natural re-growth is the preferred option. Forestry is a thing, you know. All of which is beside the point. Comparing timber and steel was the point.......and burning massive amounts of fossil fuel to melt massive amounts of mined material is vastly more destructive than managed forestry.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 08:42 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
how come?
Reportedly, the EU has been working on a list for months now. Starting with a list from back when Bush jr was talking trade war.

Quote:
I doubt that. Months ago Trump banned 1.2 billion of biodiesel exports from Argentina and we're still trying to negotiate.
Were those illegal?

Quote:
Sanctions from the WTO take time, and in the end Trump will have the States withdrawn from it.
Punitive tariffs can be levied immediately. If the case before the WTO is lost, they have to be reimbursed.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 10:16 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
You can actually, other than in thin-soiled tropical regions. The re-planting bit is the one thing you don't do, as that tends to compress the soil and produce a mono-culture. Natural re-growth is the preferred option. Forestry is a thing, you know. All of which is beside the point. Comparing timber and steel was the point.......and burning massive amounts of fossil fuel to melt massive amounts of mined material is vastly more destructive than managed forestry.
Old-growth forests around here are 200-500 years old. Redwood forests in California are more like 2000. There's no replacing that.
ETA: That's the age of the trees, of course. The forests themselves are far older.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 10:46 AM   #26
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There's nothing like having a bit of inside knowledge to help your share portfolio along. Not everyone involved with steel importing companies in the USA is going to take a big hit.

Gradiaun.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 11:19 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
There's nothing like having a bit of inside knowledge to help your share portfolio along. Not everyone involved with steel importing companies in the USA is going to take a big hit.

Gradiaun.
What is the evidence he had insider knowledge?
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:08 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
This was a campaign promise from Trump during the election.
Which does not make it any less a stupid m ove with disasterous consequences......
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:41 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
There's no comparison. Wood is a crop. It grows, gets harvested, it re-grows. It is also sustainable, unlike steel, and is very low carbon. It is entirely wasteful to be using steel for something like stud walls.

You are right in principle, though, just chose a poor example to illustrate it. there will be substitution. Hopefully, one of the things substituted will be Trump.
I still think it's a good example. Deforestation of old growth destroys ecosystems, replacing them with a monocultured crop. A tree farm is not a forest.

Increasing domestic production of lumber is part of the reason Trump is deregistering millions of hectares from protected status while simultaneously jacking up lumber import tariffs. They will almost certainly be clearcut, and even if the trees are replaced, hundreds of species will go extinct.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:44 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The wood used for framing around here is almost entirely imported, from Canada.
Which is something Trump has sworn to end, thus the anti-Canadian lumber tariffs introduced over the last year. It's only speculation, but since the current set has not impacted imports much, the industry is braced for increasing rounds.

ETA: US framing lumber overall is >90% domestic resourced.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:44 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Reportedly, the EU has been working on a list for months now. Starting with a list from back when Bush jr was talking trade war.
and how does it target republican districts? (that is what I asked)

Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Were those illegal?
With the excuse they have detected some internal tax devolutions of 9 to 11% they applied compensatory rights from 65 to 90%. That is "banning". [as some old crow is flying around this thread, I declare my next words on this will include "potatoe, potato"]

Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Punitive tariffs can be levied immediately. If the case before the WTO is lost, they have to be reimbursed.
But the matter is a political one. The USA is abusing of their power as nobody will "levy punitive tariffs immediately". They can, but they won't.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:47 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
...and even if the trees are replaced, hundreds of species will go extinct.
isn't that a bit too much?
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:49 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
...and he was making noises about adding tariffs there, as well.
Already has, a year ago. Expecting more.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 01:50 PM   #34
blutoski
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
isn't that a bit too much?
Arguably, yes. Some people would say that even one species is too much.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 02:43 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
and how does it target republican districts? (that is what I asked)
Potentially in the EU's sights: items such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, whose corporate headquarters is in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin. Bourbon is another target, having enjoyed a surge in exports to the EU. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's home state of Kentucky exported $154 million worth of bourbon to the EU, up from $128 million in 2016, according to data from the International Trade Commission.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/eu-c...p-tariffs.html

Quote:
With the excuse they have detected some internal tax devolutions of 9 to 11% they applied compensatory rights from 65 to 90%. That is "banning". [as some old crow is flying around this thread, I declare my next words on this will include "potatoe, potato"]
That sounds like the usual procedure on countervailing tariffs.

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But the matter is a political one. The USA is abusing of their power as nobody will "levy punitive tariffs immediately". They can, but they won't.
The EU will. Juncker has been very clear.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 02:51 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
isn't that a bit too much?
Ah, I just realized you may have been asking if 100 species' extinction for clearcutting a few thousand hectares of North American old growth was an overestimation.

No, it's actually very conservative. "Ghost with Trembling Wings" is a recent nonfiction book on the topic of the Anthropocene aka Sixth Mass Extinction, which is our current biosphere era.

The main point, though, is that a tree farm is not a forest. It has <1% of the biodiversity.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 02:55 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I still think it's a good example. Deforestation of old growth destroys ecosystems, replacing them with a monocultured crop. A tree farm is not a forest........
Demonstrating that you didn't bother reading what I wrote.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 03:05 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
Potentially in the EU's sights: items such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, whose corporate headquarters is in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin. Bourbon is another target, having enjoyed a surge in exports to the EU. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's home state of Kentucky exported $154 million worth of bourbon to the EU, up from $128 million in 2016, according to data from the International Trade Commission.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/eu-c...p-tariffs.html
I think it'll mostly affect blue states and blue spots* it red states. Basically, the 45% support for Republicans amount to less than 30% of the economy. Country by county analysis are horrifying. A large mass of Trump supporters are poor people who'll remain poor for the rest of their life.

Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
That sounds like the usual procedure on countervailing tariffs.
Not when they're VAT like taxes. But I agree, arbitrariness, lobbying and retaliation is everyday meal in the States.

Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
The EU will. Juncker has been very clear.
I hope you're right, but I'm not betting anything on it. I'd like to see what are Ms May and company going to do about it.

* Presidential election- Milwaukee: Clinton 65%, Trump 28%
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Old 2nd March 2018, 03:05 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Demonstrating that you didn't bother reading what I wrote.
You advocated natural reforestation, which would take 200-2000 years and ain't gonna happen.
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Old 2nd March 2018, 03:06 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Demonstrating that you didn't bother reading what I wrote.
I did, but it didn't make sense. You're recommending reforesting, but that's not what American logging firms do, so not sure why you mentioned it. The old growth ecologies will take thousands of years to restore, assuming there is no initial extinction. Like: if we carefully captured each species and cultured them somehow for a couple thousand years to reintroduce them to the mature forest that was similar to the one that was cut down.

In the few states that have reforesting regulations, there is a push to scrap them and a federal government that is outright enthusiastic about it.

The point being that if this is a good substitution for downstream product shifting (eg: steel frames to aluminum, aluminum frames to softwood), that the ecological argument for steel tariffs is weakened.
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