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View Poll Results: Which of these principles do you believe are likely true?
Quantum Entanglement 26 65.00%
Radical Intuition: Humans have anomalous processes of information or energy transfer that are currently unexplained in terms of known physical or biological mechanisms 2 5.00%
The ancient Israelites tested their prophets' reliability 2 5.00%
None of the Above 10 25.00%
Other / N/A 3 7.50%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 40. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 28th February 2017, 08:48 PM   #1
rakovsky
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Question Three Questions about the Possibility of Biblical Prophecy

Three basic questions often arise when considering the possibility that the prophecies in the Tanakh/Old Testament could be legitimate divine predictions. One might propose that the prophets were making guesses or using wise reasoning to foretell apocalyptic events, but the Tanakh/Old Testament itself appears to consider prophecy itself to be a divine gift or ability.

The first question is whether this gift or miraculous foresight or precognition is even logically possible. The problem is that it violates a basic principle of Causality, because it proposes an effect (envisioning the future event) to occur before its cause (the future event). This seemingly backwards phenomenon would be considered "Retro-causal".

One suggestion is that the theory of "Quantum Entanglement" suggests that the principle of Causality is not absolute. Do you believe in the theory of Quantum Entanglement, or is it bogus?



1935 New York Times title (Public Domain)

Quote:
Quantum entanglement is a physical phenomenon that occurs when pairs or groups of particles are generated or interact in ways such that the quantum state of each particle cannot be described independently of the others, even when the particles are separated by a large distance—instead, a quantum state must be described for the system as a whole.

Einstein and others considered such behavior to be impossible, as it violated the local realist view of causality (Einstein referring to it as "spooky action at a distance")[4] and argued that the accepted formulation of quantum mechanics must therefore be incomplete. Later, however, the counterintuitive predictions of quantum mechanics were verified experimentally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_entanglement
Rationalwiki says:
When two particles are entangled whatever change is made to one has an immediate effect on the other no matter how far apart the two particles are. It has some use in quantum computing and teleportation...
Quantum mechanics is filled with brain-breaking facts about matter that defy common sense or any kind of sense that we're capable of thinking about.
...
Entanglement happens instantly regardless of distance[1] - so if you took two entangled particles and separated them by millimetres, kilometres or even the size of the known universe, the communication between the two particles would still be instantaneous. Some people wonder if this means that the particles are, somehow, "still connected" and only separated in our reality. Other interpretations put entanglement down to some "hidden" variable; where states only appear entangled because of observation. Thus the final states of an entangled pair after examination were decided and coded by this variable. These hidden variable theories are mostly ruled out by theory (Bell inequalities and quantum contextuality) and experiments, leaving open only a few loopholes.

Measuring the spin will cause one of the particles to select one spin status to an observer, and the other particle - no matter how far away it is - will instantly acquire the other state, a phenomenon known as quantum collapse. This "spooky action at a distance" was something which Einstein always refused to accept.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Quantum_entanglement

(^ Click the SPOILER Tag to read the passage)

This Wikipedia entry mentions different theories of whether retrocausality explains quantum entanglement:
Retrocausality... is any of several hypothetical phenomena or processes that reverse causality, allowing an effect to occur before its cause.

Quantum physics
Retrocausality is sometimes associated with the nonlocal correlations that generically arise from quantum entanglement,[23] including the notable special case of the delayed choice quantum eraser.[24] However, verifying nonlocal correlations requires ordinary subluminal communication: the no communication theorem prevents the superluminal transfer of information, and fundamental descriptions of matter and forces require the full framework of quantum field theory in which spacelike-separated operators commute. Accounts of quantum entanglement that do not involve retrocausality emphasize how the experiments demonstrating these correlations can equally well be described from different reference frames, that disagree on which measurement is a "cause" versus an "effect", as necessary to be consistent with special relativity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retroc...uantum_physics


Quote:
Weird! Quantum Entanglement Can Reach into the Past

"Whether these two particles are entangled or separable has been decided after they have been measured," write the researchers, led by Xiao-song Ma of the Institute for Quantum Optics and Quantum Information at the University of Vienna.

Essentially, the scientists showed that future actions may influence past events, at least when it comes to the messy, mind-bending world of quantum physics.
http://www.livescience.com/19975-spo...anglement.html
Click the link above for the full article.

See also:
Science hopes to change events that have already occurred, Patrick Barry, San Francisco Gate, January 21, 2007
http://www.sfgate.com/science/articl...dy-2655518.php

The second question is whether radical intuition even exists at all in animals or humans. By radical intuition, I mean the kinds of seemingly impossible or unexplained extreme psychological abilities that could include precognition or navigating vast unexplored distances without maps.

Prof. Daryl Bem at Cornell University refers to this as "PSI":
Quote:
The term psi denotes anomalous processes of information or energy transfer that are currently unexplained in terms of known physical or biological mechanisms. Two variants of psi are precognition (conscious cognitive awareness) and premonition (affective apprehension) of a future event that could not otherwise be anticipated through any known inferential process.
http://hplusmagazine.com/2010/11/04/...uman-mind-can/

The issue is not that the processes are unknown or unobserved in biology, but that the intuitive processes are not currently explained. In fact, sometimes explanations have been given, but the scientific community does not have a consensus on them.

For example, many people claim to have premonitions and dreams that they interpret as uncannily predicting the future. However, science has not come to a consensus on whether these are mere random coincidences based on mere anecdotal evidence, the human mind sensing unconscious signals or making unconscious calculations of future possibilities, or reflect another psychological process.

Another radical ability is that of some animals and humans to precisely and consistently sense the time of day, without looking at a clock, despite the fact that the hours of sunlight grow longer and shorter throughout the seasons.
Quote:
The human brain keeps time, from the flicker of milliseconds to the languorous unfurling of hours and days and years. It’s the product of hundreds of millions of years of evolution.
...
After hummingbirds drink nectar from real flowers, it takes time for the flowers to replenish their supply. The Scottish researchers refilled some of their fake flowers every 10 minutes and others every 20. Hummingbirds quickly learned just how long they had to wait before coming back to each kind. Scientists at the University of Georgia have discovered that rats do an excellent job of telling time too. They can be conditioned to wait two days after a meal to poke their noses into a trough and be rewarded with food.

http://discovermagazine.com/2008/aug...n-control-time
^ The article above gives competing scientific theories for how this might work.

The article "Humans Have a Lot More Than Five Senses" lists:
Quote:
Time:
This one is debated as no singular mechanism has been found that allows people to perceive time. However, experimental data has conclusively shown humans have a startling accurate sense of time, particularly when younger. The mechanism we use for this seems to be a distributed system involving the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, and basal ganglia. Long term time keeping seems to be monitored by the suprachiasmatic nuclei (responsible for the circadian rhythm). Short term time keeping is handled by other cell systems.
...
Numerous experiments have demonstrated that people do have the ability to detect accurately the passage of time. One experiment showed that, without consciously counting or anything of the like, a group of 19 to 24 year olds were able, on average, to tell when 3 minutes was up within a 3 second margin of error.
http://www.todayifoundout.com/index....n-five-senses/
A third ability is Magnetoception:
Quote:
This is the ability to detect magnetic fields, which is principally useful in providing a sense of direction when detecting the Earth’s magnetic field. Unlike most birds, humans do not have a strong magentoception, however, experiments have demonstrated that we do tend to have some sense of magnetic fields. The mechanism for this is not completely understood; it is theorized that this has something to do with deposits of ferric iron in our noses. This would make sense if that is correct as humans who are given magnetic implants have been shown to have a much stronger magnetoception than humans without.

One such method for testing whether humans have magnetoception is by placing a strong magnetic field near a person and then disorienting them. Results have shown that people in this scenario perform significantly worse at being able to re-orient themselves in terms of the cardinal points than people who are not near a strong magnetic field. More conclusive evidence has been demonstrated by examining subject’s brains when magnetic fields are produced near a person. It has been shown that these magnetic fields will evoke a response in the brain’s activity.
http://www.todayifoundout.com/index....n-five-senses/
A fourth ability is extreme long distance precision navigation, especially that found in animals.
Quote:
Animal navigation

Birds such as the Arctic tern, insects such as the monarch butterfly and fish such as the salmon regularly migrate thousands of miles to and from their breeding grounds...

Olfactory cues may be important in salmon, which are known to return to the exact river where they hatched. Lockley reports experimental evidence that fish such as minnows can accurately tell the difference between the waters of different rivers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_navigation
Jeffrey Kluger writes in Time Magazine about extreme cases of pets who journey extreme distances to find their owners:
Quote:
The Amazing Science Behind Pets That Find Their Way Home

...we shouldn't dismiss all the stories out of hand. That cat that traveled 200 miles in 2013? It did have an implanted microchip.
http://time.com/4104980/animal-navigation-pets/

Incredible Journey: 300 mile Animal Navigation movie (Public Domain image from W.Source)

Quote:
Bobbie the Wonder Dog (1921–1927) was a dog from the U.S. state of Oregon who became famous for traveling 2,551 miles (4,105 km) from the state of Indiana, to return to his master's home in the city of Silverton.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobbie_the_Wonder_Dog
Howie the Persian Cat
The Hicks family wanted their cat to be lovingly cared for while they went on an extended vacation overseas. So, they took him to stay with relatives who lived more than 1,000 miles away. Months later, when they returned to retrieve Howie, they were told that he had run away. ... A year later, their daughter returned home from school one day and saw a mangy, unkempt, and starving cat. Yep, it was Howie. It had taken him 12 months to cross 1,000 miles of Australian outback, but Howie had come home.
http://animals.howstuffworks.com/pet...-get-home2.htm


The Washington Post lists two more cases, and suggests magnetism, among other tools as an explanation:
How does a lost animal find its way home?

A couple from West Palm Beach, Fla., lost their cat in Daytona Beach in November, only to have the animal show up two months later less than a mile from their house. The cat had apparently walked 200 miles. The amazing accomplishment isn’t unprecedented.... A labrador named Buck traveled 500 miles from Winchester, Va., to Myrtle Beach, S.C., last year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.2400d436e26b


Dog walks nearly 20 blocks to see owner in hospital - USA Today
www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015

Quote:
Argentinian dog stays by his master’s grave for six years
Miguel had passed away in a hospital in the city and his body was taken to a funeral home far away from their residence. None of the family members recalled the dog following them to the cemetery before. “The next Sunday we went to visit Miguel’s grave and the dog was there. This time he followed us when we returned, because we had walked. He stayed with us at home for a while but later went back to the cemetery,” Verónica said. He has made that cemetery his home for the past six years.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...icle-1.1159250
See also:
Dogs That Know When Their Owners Are Coming Home: And Other Unexplained Powers of Animals by Rupert Sheldrake

A fifth curious, and perhaps not fully understood human phenomenon is the body's improved ability to heal itself of illnesses because of placebos that don't actually contain chemical medicines.
A placebo is... a substance or treatment with no active therapeutic effect. ... Brain imaging techniques done by Emeran Mayer, Johanna Jarco and Matt Lieberman showed that placebo can have real, measurable effects on physiological changes in the brain.[16] Placebos can produce some objective physiological changes, such as changes in heart rate, blood pressure, and chemical activity in the brain, in cases involving pain, depression, anxiety, fatigue, and some symptoms of Parkinson’s. In other cases, like asthma, the effect is purely subjective, when the patient reports improvement despite no objective change in the underlying condition.

The placebo effect has sometimes been defined as a physiological effect caused by the placebo, but Moerman and Jonas have pointed out that this seems illogical, as a placebo is an inert substance that does not directly cause anything. Instead they introduced the term "meaning response" for the meaning that the brain associates with the placebo, which causes a physiological placebo effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo


Quote:
...in one study, people were given a placebo and told it was a stimulant. After taking the pill, their pulse rate sped up, their blood pressure increased, and their reaction speeds improved.

Experts also say that there is a relationship between how strongly a person expects to have results and whether or not results occur. The stronger the feeling, the more likely it is that a person will experience positive effects. http://www.webmd.com/pain-management...acebo-effect#2
Quote:
This is the placebo effect: somehow, sometimes, a whole lot of nothing can be very powerful. Except it’s not quite nothing. When Fabrizio Benedetti of the University of Turin in Italy carried out the above experiment, he added a final twist by adding naloxone, a drug that blocks the effects of morphine, to the saline. The shocking result? The pain-relieving power of saline solution disappeared.

So what is going on? Doctors have known about the placebo effect for decades, and the naloxone result seems to show that the placebo effect is somehow biochemical. But apart from that, we simply don’t know.
https://www.newscientist.com/article...ot-make-sense/
However, I am not sure that this fifth ability counts as radical. It could just be that a person's body reacts simply and physically to imagined or perceived stimuli.

The third basic question is whether the ancient Israelites tested, checked, and scrutinized their prophets' reliability for themselves.

Deuteronomy 18 lays down strict criteria for judging prophets:
Quote:
20 But the prophet who dares to speak a message in My name that I have not commanded him to speak, or who speaks in the name of other gods—that prophet must die.’
21 You may say to yourself, ‘How can we recognize a message the Lord has not spoken?’
22 When a prophet speaks in the Lord’s name, and the message does not come true or is not fulfilled, that is a message the Lord has not spoken. The prophet has spoken it presumptuously. Do not be afraid of him.
One example where the Israelites tested the prophets occurred when Elijah and the priests of Baal asked for fire to come down onto their sacrifice and fire only came down onto Elijah's sacrifice to God.

One student of Judaism told me:
Quote:
The Tanach also has predictions in one book that are later shown to be fulfilled, perhaps in another book. Maimonides also writes that in order to become accepted as a [long-term] prophet, the prospective prophet needs to be tested a number of times by prophesying events that are seen to have been fulfilled. So for instance, before Isaiah was accepted as a prophet by the nation, he had to stand in front of the court and give a prophecy which the judges then waited until it was fulfilled. After that happened a number of times, he becomes established as a prophet and we can trust his prophecies.
...
In order for the prophecies we are familiar with to be accepted by the Jews of the time, the prophet would have had to first been tested to establish his prophecy. Only afterwards, would these prophecies be accepted. The Sanhedrin had to be familiar with all manners of secular knowledge and impure arts...
https://www.religiousforums.com/thre...-occur.194627/
The kings had a major incentive to make their prophets reliable because they relied on them for major advice, like whether to go to battle. Dr. Claude Mariottini, professor of the Old Testament, explains:
The court prophets served in the king’s court and were at the king’s service. These court prophets were consulted before the king went into battle. Ths work of the court prophets is seen in 1 Kings 22:6: “So the king of Israel gathered the prophets, about 400 men, and asked them, ‘Should I go against Ramoth-gilead for war or should I refrain?’ They replied, ‘March up, and the Lord will hand it over to the king.’” The cult prophets received their compensation from the temple treasury while the court prophets were paid from the king’s wealth.
...
The reason the prophets wrote down their words or oracles in a scroll was to vindicate their ministry and to serve as a reminder to future generations that they were speaking the truth and that their oracles were fulfilled. It was in the fulfillment of the prophetic word that the people would recognize that a prophet had spoken the truth on behalf of YHWH. As Jeremiah told Hananiah: “As for the prophet who prophesies peace, when the word of that prophet comes to pass, then it will be known that the LORD has truly sent the prophet” (Jeremiah 28:9).

When Isaiah’s message was rejected by king Ahaz, the prophet said: “Tie up the scroll as legal evidence, seal the official record of God’s instructions and give it to my followers. I will wait patiently for the LORD, who has rejected the family of Jacob; I will wait for him” (Isaiah 8:16-17). Because the people of Judah had refused to listen to his message, God told Jeremiah to write down in a book all the words he had preached. So, at the dictation of Jeremiah, Baruch wrote down in a scroll all the word of the Lord, so that Jeremiah’s message would remind the king and the people of Judah of the coming judgment (Jeremiah 36:1-4).

https://claudemariottini.com/2010/05...ets-in-israel/


2 Kings 20 relates how Isaiah predicted gave Hezekiah predictions whose fulfillments would prove that other predictions would also come to pass. In this passage, Hezekiah was ill and Isaiah made predictions that he would recover:
Quote:
7 And Isaiah said, Take a lump of figs. And they took and laid it on the boil, and he recovered.
8 And Hezekiah said unto Isaiah, What shall be the sign that the Lord will heal me, and that I shall go up into the house of the Lord the third day?
9 And Isaiah said, This sign shalt thou have of the Lord, that the Lord will do the thing that he hath spoken: shall the shadow go forward ten degrees, or go back ten degrees?
10 And Hezekiah answered, It is a light thing for the shadow to go down ten degrees: nay, but let the shadow return backward ten degrees.
11 And Isaiah the prophet cried unto the Lord: and he brought the shadow ten degrees backward, by which it had gone down in the dial of Ahaz.
Rabbi Jonathan Sacks addresses the fact that Jonah prophesied disaster to Nineveh, and yet Nineveh repented, the Lord relented, and the prophecy did not come to pass, creating an apparent contradiction between the prophecy of disaster and the fact that the disaster didn't occur:
Jonah had proclaimed that the city would be destroyed in forty days. It wasn’t; yet the proclamation was true. He really did speak the word of G‑d. How can this be so?

The answer is given in the book of Jeremiah. Jeremiah had been prophesying national disaster. The people had drifted from their religious vocation, and the result would be defeat and exile. It was a difficult and demoralizing message for people to hear. A false prophet arose, Hananiah son of Azzur, preaching the opposite. Babylon, Israel’s enemy, would soon be defeated. Within two years the crisis would be over. Jeremiah knew that it was not so, and that Hananiah was telling the people what they wanted to hear, not what they needed to hear. He addressed the assembled people:

He said, “Amen! May the Lord do so! May the Lord fulfill the words you have prophesied by bringing the articles of the Lord’s house and all the exiles back to this place from Babylon. Nevertheless, listen to what I have to say in your hearing and in the hearing of all the people: From early times the prophets who preceded you and me have prophesied war, disaster and plague against many countries and great kingdoms. But the prophet who prophesies peace will be recognized as one truly sent by the Lord only if his prediction comes true.”

Jeremiah makes a fundamental distinction between good news and bad. It is easy to prophesy disaster. If the prophecy comes true, then you have spoken the truth. If it does not, then you can say: G‑d relented and forgave. A negative prophecy cannot be refuted – but a positive one can. If the good foreseen comes to pass, then the prophecy is true. If it does not, then you cannot say, ‘G‑d changed His mind’ because G‑d does not retract from a promise He has made of good, or peace, or return.

It is therefore only when the prophet offers a positive vision that he can be tested. That is why Jonah was wrong to believe he had failed when his negative prophecy – the destruction of Nineveh – failed to come true.

http://www.chabad.org/parshah/articl...g-Prophecy.htm

Last edited by rakovsky; 28th February 2017 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 28th February 2017, 09:40 PM   #2
Hungry81
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Everybody tell trump not to worry. His wall is here and has been built.

Just need to move it to the US Mexico border.

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Old 28th February 2017, 09:42 PM   #3
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I wonder if anyone is going to read that entire screed. I didnt. When it comes to prophecy, biblical or otherwise, show me. Don't tell me how it works, I'm not interested in the theory, just show me it works.

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Old 28th February 2017, 10:08 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
[...]
Oh hell no! No way I'm reading that tome.
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Old 28th February 2017, 10:17 PM   #5
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It doesn't require retrocausality to make accurate predictions. I predict this post will show up on the forum after I hit enter.

And predictions can seem magical or divinely inspired merely by concealing some of the information used to make the prediction. If I rig the lottery and "predict" the winning number, it can seem to other players to be retrocausal in some fashion, but it isn't.
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Old 28th February 2017, 10:25 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Oh hell no! No way I'm reading that tome.
Skimmed it, noted citation of Rupert Sheldrake.
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Old 1st March 2017, 12:51 AM   #7
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What a useless poll and analysis.

There is more contained in "none of the above" than in the bizarre 3 choices above it, and any objective analysis of the prophecies of the babble should include (at least) "writing them down after they happened", "writing them down after they didn't happen, but pretending they did", and "writing them down and getting them wrong".

Sheesh, it's almost as though the OP is all about seeking confirmation of the poster's unevidenced beliefs. Surely not. No-one would do that here, would they.......

ETA: Any OP that cites Rupert Sheldrake isn't worth reading.
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Old 1st March 2017, 01:12 AM   #8
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I would be much more interested in seeing people call down fire from the sky at will, than in seeing them make predictions. That would be way more fun. Maybe not as profitable, but definitely fun.
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Old 1st March 2017, 06:14 AM   #9
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Wow oh wow! I have seen plenty of very stupid things said about quantum mechanics over the years.

But in any event, even though the mixing of quantum mechanics and Biblical fairy stories is a new variation on this old theme, but it is still a very stupid variation all the same.
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Old 1st March 2017, 06:22 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
I would be much more interested in seeing people call down fire from the sky at will, than in seeing them make predictions. That would be way more fun. Maybe not as profitable, but definitely fun.
Water into wine could be quite lucrative.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 02:40 PM   #11
rakovsky
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Question

Originally Posted by Hungry81 View Post
Everybody tell trump not to worry. His wall is here and has been built.
What do you mean?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 02:48 PM   #12
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Lightbulb

Originally Posted by Beady View Post
When it comes to prophecy, biblical or otherwise, show me. Don't tell me how it works, I'm not interested in the theory, just show me it works.
Good quote by you.

I am looking for reliability of prophecy too. "How it works" is something I consider in order to see if it's reliable. That's my main goal. What you said.

There are many cases of prophets' prophecies working, but skeptics can say it's a coincidence or give other reasons for doubt.

If I score 70% on precognition tests, people can say it's a coincidence, since usually people do not score nearly that highly.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 02:53 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by marplots View Post
It doesn't require retrocausality to make accurate predictions. I predict this post will show up on the forum after I hit enter.
That's true. The prophets in the Bible could have had information or philosophical reasons that they used to teach certain future events like the resurrection of the dead or the Messiah.

They could see that in history different leaders come to the fore and lead a good chunk of the world like Napoleon, Churchill, or the Popes, and they could have predicted Israel will have a world leader too.

Or they could see how technology was growing and expect that one day we can resurrect the dead.

It doesn't necessarily mean that they had a magical ability to mentally time travel in the real world.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 02:54 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by jaydeehess View Post
Skimmed it, noted citation of Rupert Sheldrake.
What do you think of the theory that animals like Salmon and butterflies have extreme navigation abilities, where they cross thousands of miles and still can find the same spot they came from?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 03:05 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
I wonder if anyone is going to read that entire screed. I didnt. When it comes to prophecy, biblical or otherwise, show me. Don't tell me how it works, I'm not interested in the theory, just show me it works.

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I don't need to. Nothing would predict retro causality in physic. As for quantum entanglement, it does not imply retro causality either, simply because classical information cannot be gained faster than light. The rest I ignored after skeeming.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 03:07 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Sheesh, it's almost as though the OP is all about seeking confirmation of the poster's unevidenced beliefs. Surely not. No-one would do that here, would they.......
I am skeptical about the claim that if the Bible predicts something, that it must occur, because Jeremiah said that bad prophecies might not occur.
So this thread is not about me confirming a strong belief I already have.

I good example of me making a thread to confirm my beliefs would be if I asked if the Old Testament predicts resurrection. Someone on the forum claimed that it doesn't, but I believe that it does make that prediction. I imagine that on the forum, since it's so large, some people do make rhetorical threads where they are just seeking a confirmation of beliefs that they already solidly have.

Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
ETA: Any OP that cites Rupert Sheldrake isn't worth reading.
Electronic Travel Authorization?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 03:23 PM   #17
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Old 2nd March 2017, 03:26 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
Good quote by you.

I am looking for reliability of prophecy too. "How it works" is something I consider in order to see if it's reliable. That's my main goal. What you said.

There are many cases of prophets' prophecies working, but skeptics can say it's a coincidence or give other reasons for doubt.

If I score 70% on precognition tests, people can say it's a coincidence, since usually people do not score nearly that highly.
Evidence?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 03:33 PM   #19
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The OP needs to read this book, and maybe he will understand how "prophecies" appear to work.

First, you gotta believe, and all the rest follows.

Another book, by Tim Callahan, more to the point. Basically, most prophecies fall into these simple categories:
  1. Trivial or vague, could apply to many events, and frequently are; "An earthquake will happen," "A great city will fall," "A king will be crowned," "A young woman will conceive"
  2. Post-event, doctored up to look like pre-event
  3. Impossible to prove but highly unlikely (Jesus walked on water, Jonah lived in a whale, Israelites escaped from Egypt)
  4. Just Plain Wrong (Tyre will become a wasteland, Jesus will return within a lifetime), or
  5. Haven't happened yet, so to true believers, haven't been proved wrong, either
Rakovsy, None of your gibberish has the slightest relevance to biblical prophecy. Using the word "science" doesn't lend any credibility to fairy tales.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 04:04 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
NOTA.
What's that mean?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 04:07 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
Evidence?
I took the Free Online Precognition Championship
http://www.psychicscience.org/prechamp.aspx

My results the first time I took the text were:
Quote:
Evidence for Precognition:
Correct Guesses Incorrect Guesses
N % ------------N %
7 70.00 ---------3 30.00
If you take the test yourself, at the end of the test they show you who scored the best. Some people got more than 42 out of 50 right.

But..... I expect skeptics will say that those high results were just coincidences, and that if you get 100 people to test, some (like the high scorers with 42+ right) will score very high as a matter of chance.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 04:12 PM   #22
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Question

Originally Posted by Sherman Bay View Post

Another book, by Tim Callahan, more to the point. Basically, most prophecies fall into these simple categories:
  1. Trivial or vague, could apply to many events, and frequently are; "An earthquake will happen," "A great city will fall," "A king will be crowned," "A young woman will conceive"
  2. Post-event, doctored up to look like pre-event
  3. Impossible to prove but highly unlikely (Jesus walked on water, Jonah lived in a whale, Israelites escaped from Egypt)
  4. Just Plain Wrong (Tyre will become a wasteland, Jesus will return within a lifetime), or
  5. Haven't happened yet, so to true believers, haven't been proved wrong, either
I suppose the rest of prophecies that don't fall in those categories would be considered by skeptics to be "10000 Monkeys with typewriters" style coincidences, like the story of Mark Twain's detailed dream about his brother's funeral?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 04:26 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
...........Electronic Travel Authorization?
Edited to add.

Edited to add that Sheldrake is a deluded fool.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 05:45 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
What's that mean?
So you're a pre-cog that puts up a poll with the choice of None Of The Above but the acronym escaped you?

Bad showing on your part.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 05:46 PM   #25
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Smile

Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
So you're a pre-cog that puts up a poll with the choice of None Of The Above but the acronym escaped you?
Sorry, I'm only partly precog if you accept the test results as indicative.

Expected nonprecog results would be 50-50, and expected 100% precog results would be 100-0. I only scored 70-30.

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Old 2nd March 2017, 05:53 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
I took the Free Online Precognition Championship
http://www.psychicscience.org/prechamp.aspx

My results the first time I took the text were:


If you take the test yourself, at the end of the test they show you who scored the best. Some people got more than 42 out of 50 right.

But..... I expect skeptics will say that those high results were just coincidences, and that if you get 100 people to test, some (like the high scorers with 42+ right) will score very high as a matter of chance.
I went to the site and I'm not impressed. Internet self administered tests aren't definitive and do not constitute evidence of anything.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 05:55 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
Sorry, I'm only partly precog if you accept the test results as indicative.

Expected nonprecog results would be 50-50, and expected 100% precog results would be 100-0. I only scored 70-30.
I do not, but carry on. I predict this thread will be a whole bunch of fun for everybody but you.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 06:36 PM   #28
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What happens if you score a 20% or lower?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 06:38 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
I suppose the rest of prophecies that don't fall in those categories would be considered by skeptics to be "10000 Monkeys with typewriters" style coincidences, like the story of Mark Twain's detailed dream about his brother's funeral?
I'm not familiar with your Mark Twain reference, but give me an example of a biblical prophecy you think is not possible without a supernatural connection, and I'll tell you why that is not the best explanation.

I've heard them all, so try me.

Have you read either of the books I suggested?
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Old 2nd March 2017, 06:40 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
I predict this thread will be a whole bunch of fun for everybody but you.
Poll results are showing 60% believers in Quantum Entanglement theory.
I am still having fun on the thread.
Only threads I was in and didn't like much were a few of the politics ones.

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Old 2nd March 2017, 08:11 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
I predict this thread will be a whole bunch of fun for everybody but you.
Check out this related thread:
If science proved a supernatural phenomenon to exist, would that make it "natural"?
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...3#post11741343

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Old 2nd March 2017, 08:17 PM   #32
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I took the second one to mean that we don't know everything about the human brain. Our indexing and storage system for memories still appear to be largely unresolved (though also understood in some ways, as well).

I believe quantum entanglement is a real thing but I don't know what it means other than that it doesn't allow God to come futz with things.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 08:21 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
What happens if you score a 20% or lower?
Interesting situation. An extreme example could be a person who flips a coin 10 times on tails in a row, even though actually coins are slightly weighted to tend to bring up heads.

Based on law of probability, that should happen. Same thing with the precog tests. Based on probability, you should find some people who get 20% or lower.

With a big enough sample, you are supposed to weed out those kinds of anomalous.

Prof. Daryl Bem's published study says the precog results are small in his college studies with hundreds of people, but still big enough to be beyond chance. But.... not everyone agrees with his claims either.
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Old 2nd March 2017, 09:20 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
...even though actually coins are slightly weighted to tend to bring up heads.
Say what? Who the hell told you this and why on earth did you believe it?



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Old 3rd March 2017, 05:58 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
If you take the test yourself, at the end of the test they show you who scored the best. Some people got more than 42 out of 50 right.
Actually the highest score shown on the site was 41 out of 50.

Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
But..... I expect skeptics will say that those high results were just coincidences, and that if you get 100 people to test, some (like the high scorers with 42+ right) will score very high as a matter of chance.
No, people who understand statistics will say that the expected range of results follows a binomial distribution, and that there is a virtual certainty that, if enough results are recorded, some will be very high and others very low. If the test has been taken 1,000,000 times, which is not an unreasonable possibility (I didn't find any numbers on total attempts but the test has been running at least since 2010), the expected result is that two of those attempts will give a score of 41/50 (and, of course, another two will give a score of 9/50).

Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
Sorry, I'm only partly precog if you accept the test results as indicative.

Expected nonprecog results would be 50-50, and expected 100% precog results would be 100-0. I only scored 70-30.
Wrong, and this shows a complete failure to understand statistics. Expected results would fall on a probability distribution, and nothing could be read into a single result. If 1000 people took the test, about 2 of them would be expected to score 70%.

Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
With a big enough sample, you are supposed to weed out those kinds of anomalous.
Again, wrong. The probability of any specific number of successes is independent of the number of attempts, so with a big enough sample it can be virtually guaranteed that some very high and some very low scores will be recorded. And the website you linked, in fact, does exactly the opposite; it allows only new high scores to be recorded, so it's selecting out the extreme tail of the statistical distribution and ignoring the vast majority of unexceptional results that, statistically, should also be occurring. It is, in fact, statistically mining for apparent anomalies, a highly dishonest and misleading practice.

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Old 3rd March 2017, 06:18 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
Say what? Who the hell told you this and why on earth did you believe it?
Gamblers Take Note: The Odds in a Coin Flip Aren’t Quite 50/50: And the odds of spinning a penny are even more skewed in one direction, but which way?
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/scienc...050-145465423/
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Old 3rd March 2017, 07:59 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by rakovsky View Post
Gamblers Take Note: The Odds in a Coin Flip Aren’t Quite 50/50: And the odds of spinning a penny are even more skewed in one direction, but which way?
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/scienc...050-145465423/
You had written, "...even though actually coins are slightly weighted to tend to bring up heads." This is a misstatement of what the article says. Overall, in real life, there's an insignificant difference. You make it sound as if coins, as a rule, are intentionally designed off-balance and in the same category as loaded dice.

Furthermore, what you appear to claim as a commonplace is in fact an oddity, as the article plainly specifies only a single, specific type of coin with a single, specific condition: a newly - minted Lincoln penny with the Lincoln Memorial on the back. There have been no newly-minted Lincoln pennies with the Memorial since 2008.

No doubt there are and will be other coincidentally off-balance coins, but the one coin that is actually discussed is a vanishing breed.

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Old 7th March 2017, 02:02 AM   #38
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Thumbs up

Originally Posted by jaydeehess View Post
Skimmed it
Thanks.
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Old 7th March 2017, 02:26 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Beady View Post
I wonder if anyone is going to read that entire screed. I didnt. When it comes to prophecy, biblical or otherwise, show me. Don't tell me how it works, I'm not interested in the theory, just show me it works.
I think it's difficult to prove.

Some serious, published academic studies and experiments show either a small, but very significant effect of precognition, but other experiments don't, and so scholars have opposite interpretations of those studies, like I mentioned in the OP.

Then there is untested anecdotal evidence, but skeptics say, logically, that it's not persuasive because it's anecdotal. If someone has a dream about an airplane crashing, well, then it can be a total random coincidence if one does, because there are thousands of airplanes in the sky at any moment.

I have had dreams of experiencing something unusual and the next day the same kind of thing happens - a once-close friend I hadn't seen for years and who moved five states away shows up in my dream as a major person, and then the next day in real life I see him visiting my neighbor without telling me beforehand. The skeptic response is to say that it's a pure random coincidence. But personally it makes me inclined to think that there is something real motivating the dream. I think there is probably some real-life connection between the dream and the later experience. In my unconscious mind I could sense that I was going to see him, and this information therefore manifested itself to me in my dream. I have had other coincidences between dreams and later events.

Skeptics Who See Things: The Curious Visions of Mark Twain and Barbara Ehrenreich
The Humanist magazine
https://thehumanist.com/magazine/jul...who-see-things
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Old 7th March 2017, 02:32 AM   #40
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Maybe your dreams are making things happen.

Let's try. See if you can dream that marplots got $12,465.78, and I'll let you know if I do. That will be a good test. It smells like science to me.
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