Black Swan Event Under Way - Page 6

dudalb · 5th March 2020, 05:38 PM

And the Market lost 1000 points today, losing almost everything it gained on yesterday's Biden BOunce.

Meadmaker · 5th March 2020, 05:51 PM

Bloody Hell!

I lost more today than I gained yesterday.

I suppose having a fair amount of Carnival Cruise Line didn't turn out so well for me.

If they had a huge amount of debt, I would dump them like a hot rock, because I have a feeling that the next six months are going to be a bit rough on cruising companies. However, as it is, their stock is pretty cheap compared to how they were doing until the last couple of months. If they can weather the storm, it should come back. If I were trying to time the market, though, I could imagine shorting that particular stock right now. They aren't going to have a good year.

The discussion came up in the office today about whether you would go on a cruise right now, regardless of how cheap it was. Of course, my answer is no. That's the one place where you could end up quarantined for a couple of weeks, surrounded by sick people.

The Atheist · 5th March 2020, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by marting

There's a stark difference between most that have come out recently ( a few days back) and those done during when there was no emerging pandemic. The former being much more positive predicting a short term, relatively minor effect.

Not surprising.

Haha! Bloody funny, though.

I stick by my assessment that they have no idea about pandemics, viruses, and probably science in general.

Originally Posted by marting

As this info comes out we'll see much more social distancing and concomitant economic effects. It will come into increasing conflict with the notion that coronavirus is just another flu type bug. Lots of blaming and finger pointing ahead.

I'm beginning to think that all measures are far too late and we may as well just ignore it and carry on.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

Got the memo at work today, in Michigan.

1. If you are the least bit sick, STAY HOME!

That advice has completely escaped NZ, so I'll be able to let you know in a fortnight or so.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

I suppose having a fair amount of Carnival Cruise Line didn't turn out so well for me.

Ouch!

Anything to do with travel is being savaged, but yeah, cruises are turds right now.

I hope it doesn't for your sake, but I suspect cruising will take a very long time to get past this, if ever. People will always wonder if it could happen again.

And the answer to that is: quite possibly. When there's twice as many people as 35 years ago, there's obviously more than twice as many chances of zoonotic diseases arising because a large part of the increase is in poor countries, with poor hygiene and often very close proximity to animals.

a_unique_person · 5th March 2020, 07:22 PM

Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.

Meadmaker · 5th March 2020, 08:14 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.

The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year.

Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover.

In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe.

If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.

The Atheist · 5th March 2020, 09:51 PM

Futures down a heap already.

Tomorrow looks like being another ugly day.

And I'm tempted to put this in the humour thread: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Quote:

Wall Street Stock Pros Confess: ‘We Don’t Know What’s Going On’

Which is a pretty awful admission. Go and learn some ******* maths!

lionking · 5th March 2020, 10:50 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?

He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.

The Atheist · 5th March 2020, 11:06 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.

Where did I say I wasn't relishing it? Of course I'm relishing it, TVIX are solidly $140 and I'm confident they'll break $300, never mind $200.

I'm making a lot of money out of it, and so are several of my mates. What's not to be happy about when you're virtually the only person to nail the stock tip of the century to date?

lionking · 6th March 2020, 04:16 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Where did I say I wasn't relishing it? Of course I'm relishing it, TVIX are solidly $140 and I'm confident they'll break $300, never mind $200.

I'm making a lot of money out of it, and so are several of my mates. What's not to be happy about when you're virtually the only person to nail the stock tip of the century to date?

Hmmmm

Quote:

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?
No.

Here you were saying you weren’t gleeful. I suppose you will now say “glee” and “relish” are utterly different. Wouldn’t surprise me.

But it’s good to hear you are enjoying the (temporary) misfortune of others.

The Atheist · 6th March 2020, 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

Here you were saying you weren’t gleeful. I suppose you will now say “glee” and “relish” are utterly different. Wouldn’t surprise me.

Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it.

Let me spell it out for you:

Quote:

...do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?

I've highlighted the important word for you.

I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others.

Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases.

Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah.

Originally Posted by lionking

But it’s good to hear you are enjoying the (temporary) misfortune of others.

Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars.

TVIX trading at $196.

blutoski · 6th March 2020, 12:49 PM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year.

Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover.

In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe.

If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.

One of the reasons I don't get involved in individual stocks is that there's just too many unknowns. The ones in the worst position may be the ones that get government bailouts that turn them into winners. Or maybe some of them and not others for arbitrary political reasons (Why Goldman Sachs but not Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns?)

lionking · 6th March 2020, 02:55 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it.

Let me spell it out for you:

I've highlighted the important word for you.

I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others.

Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases.

Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah.

Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars.

TVIX trading at $196.

Good try but completely unconvincing since you didn’t make the distinction between virus and economic effects when originally asked.

Anyway your doom and gloom predictions are tiresome. Car production, air travel and equity markets will all bounce back within months. I will be gleeful then.

dudalb · 6th March 2020, 03:20 PM

I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting.
And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.

dudalb · 6th March 2020, 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.

And rumors that most major film studios are debating whether or not to move their big blockbuster scheduled to open in the next couple of months to a later date.
One of the years biggest films "No Time To Die".the last Craig Bond film, has already been pulled from an April/May opening to November.

The Atheist · 6th March 2020, 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

I will be gleeful then.

So, you call me for taking pleasure at seeing rich people lose money, yet you're taking pleasure at destroying the planet's ecosystem.

Good work.

lionking · 6th March 2020, 06:07 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

So, you call me for taking pleasure at seeing rich people lose money, yet you're taking pleasure at destroying the planet's ecosystem.

Good work.

I’ve seen a lot of straw men in my time here, but this takes the cake.

Anyway, enjoy your rejoicing while it lasts.

lionking · 6th March 2020, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting.
And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.

Agreed. And, rather than Black Swan territory, nations and central banks know how to manage recessions.

As for air travel, New Zealanders only have to get to Australia, and Australia only needs to send NZ crooks back, so ships can do the job.

The Atheist · 6th March 2020, 07:20 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

I’ve seen a lot of straw men in my time here, but this takes the cake.

Yeah, it's s strawman that air travel is a major contributor to greenhouse emissions, in the most-damaging part of the atmosphere: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/c...emissions.html

Originally Posted by lionking

Anyway, enjoy your rejoicing while it lasts.

Are you a bit jealous that you didn't get on and I'm creaming it? Certainly looks that way, because the rejoicing will last forever - I'm already cashed out in profit and have 100 shares that cost me $0 currently worth nearly $200 each.

I can not lose.

The Atheist · 6th March 2020, 07:23 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

Agreed. And, rather than Black Swan territory, nations and central banks know how to manage recessions.

That's outstanding - I might even start using that in my sig.

Economics not your strong point, is it?

The Dow is down 300 today and futs are off 300 more. The Fed cut rates from 2.25 to 1% and the market tanked. Pretty well everyone who can even spell economics recognises this is a black swan, but you know it isn't.

I hear the RBA will be looking for a new governor in a year or two - you should apply.

The Atheist · 6th March 2020, 07:28 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting.

Just to be clear, my prediction was this, from page 1:

Quote:

I stick by my analysis that if it gets out of control it will be much worse than the entirely artificial GFC.

"Worse than the GFC" is not "total meltdown".

Originally Posted by dudalb

And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.

It's not going to end air travel, unfortunately, but I'm always going to rejoice at any reduction in both air travel and carbon emissions.

You call it Ludditism, I call it trying not to destroy the ecosystem.

a_unique_person · 6th March 2020, 10:48 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it.

Let me spell it out for you:

I've highlighted the important word for you.

I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others.

Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases.

Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah.

Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah.

Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah.

Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars.

TVIX trading at $196.

Nobody knows more about TVIX then me.

The Atheist · 7th March 2020, 01:04 AM

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Nobody knows more about TVIX then me.

Well, I hope you bought a heap at $37, then. It's the cheapest they've ever been and they're on the way to $300+ over the next couple of weeks.

$1000 would not surprise me at all. It'd please me, though!

a_unique_person · 8th March 2020, 03:46 AM

Everyone knows the TPIX is a much better index.

Tsukasa Buddha · 8th March 2020, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Stock futures tumbled in overnight trading Sunday as investors continued to brace for the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus, while a shocking all-out oil price war added to the anxiety.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 4% drop at the open on Monday. The sharp declines in the futures market pointed to more turbulence ahead after a roller-coaster week that saw the S&P 500 swing up or down more than 2.5% for four days straight.

Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed official crude selling prices for April, in a sudden U-turn from previous attempts to support the oil market as the coronavirus hammers global demand. The move came after OPEC talks collapsed Friday, prompting some strategists to see oil prices crater to $20 this year.

“Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. “It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” he added.

Linky.

The Atheist · 8th March 2020, 04:13 PM

Holy crap, I hadn't caught up with that - another 1000 points down to start the day isn't going to be pretty.

The commodity markets are just rubbing salt into the wounds.

Gold seems to be the only one showing life, and not a great deal of it. Even Bitcoin fell of a cliff today.

The Atheist · 8th March 2020, 04:16 PM

Just a bit further on the economic impact, I'm starting to hear of all kinds of manufacturers running into supply problems.

One guy I deal with manages intelligent building controls and they're struggling to get equipment out of China. The follow-on from that will be delayed openings of new buildings, and upgrades left in limbo.

The Atheist · 8th March 2020, 05:19 PM

Australian ASX200 down 5% so far today, now 14% off its high set three short weeks ago.

And with no sign whatsoever of buyers, it's nowhere near finished.

The Atheist · 8th March 2020, 07:35 PM

Just to put things in perspective - this is the economist for BNZ, the second-largest bank in NZ:

Quote:

"We can't stress enough, though, that this is not a cyclical downturn so the economy won't react to standard cyclical monetary and fiscal policy responses. This downturn is fundamentally a supply shock which, in turn, is creating a demand shock. Its root cause is Covid-19 so how the behaviour of individuals, globally, to this shock evolves will ultimately determine the economic path from here on in. Policymakers can only hope to smooth the process."

Picking an almost-certain recession.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...op-it-bnz-says

marting · 8th March 2020, 08:15 PM

Futures down so far > 5% that the future market circuit breakers cut in.

Tomorrow should be interesting.

Quote:

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 5% to 2,819 as of 8:05 p.m. in New York. After briefly rallying, they slipped back to the limit-down level and held there about two hours later. The curb means the contract can’t trade at a lower price for the remainder of the overnight session, although transactions at or above the threshold are allowed.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rout-...221631295.html

I wonder if the NYSE market open will be delayed tomorrow morning.

marting · 8th March 2020, 08:50 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Just a bit further on the economic impact, I'm starting to hear of all kinds of manufacturers running into supply problems.

One guy I deal with manages intelligent building controls and they're struggling to get equipment out of China. The follow-on from that will be delayed openings of new buildings, and upgrades left in limbo.

Yeah, this has been in the cards for quite a while and we are really only at the very start of shortage impacts and various shutdowns. Going to get very ugly. Once the shortages start hurting there will be calls for anti-hoarding and price controls, make stock shorting illegal, and so on.

Will totally mess up price discovery in markets with long lasting consequences.

The Atheist · 8th March 2020, 09:03 PM

Originally Posted by marting

Futures down so far > 5% that the future market circuit breakers cut in.

Tomorrow should be interesting.

I'm not sure "interesting" is the right word. How about "catastrophic"?

It's testing a 2-year low right now - I think my prediction of more than 20% is looking spot on at the moment. I'd hate to try to pick the bottom right now - might be like crude oil: no bottom.

Originally Posted by marting

Yeah, this has been in the cards for quite a while and we are really only at the very start of shortage impacts and various shutdowns. Going to get very ugly. Once the shortages start hurting there will be calls for anti-hoarding and price controls, make stock shorting illegal, and so on.

Will totally mess up price discovery in markets with long lasting consequences.

I'm waiting for a certain poster to come back and shout about this not being a Black Swan, because you're right - it's only the start.

I really don't know how it plays out from here, and I'm pretty sure nobody else does either.

lobosrul5 · 8th March 2020, 09:17 PM

So, the Sauds are playing with fire, flooding the market with crude. Futures down by about one third overnight right now.

lobosrul5 · 8th March 2020, 09:23 PM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year.

Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover.

In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe.

If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.

There are, right now, what, 4 major cruise lines? I expect that to be down to 2. One of them is Disney, obviously they have the cash to weather the storm.

I haven't the foggiest clue why anyone would ever risk going for a cruise. Seems like theres some new horror story every few months, even before COVID-19.

rjh01 · 8th March 2020, 09:35 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Just to put things in perspective - this is the economist for BNZ, the second-largest bank in NZ:

Picking an almost-certain recession.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...op-it-bnz-says

If this virus goes away then there will be huge pent up demand and we will be back to the pre 1973 days for a year or two. Companies would put out requests for capital. The virus will go away (for a decade or two) if everyone becomes immune to it.

If it is like the flu and comes back every few years (and just as bad as it always is), just as bad then society is doomed. As in recession would be an optimistic term.

marting · 8th March 2020, 10:41 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'm not sure "interesting" is the right word. How about "catastrophic"?

I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.

The Atheist · 9th March 2020, 12:24 AM

Originally Posted by rjh01

If this virus goes away then there will be huge pent up demand and we will be back to the pre 1973 days for a year or two.

The problem will be the pent-up demand is going to need material, and that's going to be in short supply.

Originally Posted by marting

I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.

Haha! That one, I'll give you.

a_unique_person · 9th March 2020, 04:51 AM

Originally Posted by marting

I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.

The Chinese haven't heard of it.

Belz... · 9th March 2020, 05:54 AM

Originally Posted by lionking

He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.

Same thing in the Coronavirus thread.

Belz... · 9th March 2020, 05:58 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

It's not going to end air travel, unfortunately

What in the blue tits are you babbling about, 'unfortunately'? First the glee of predicting a deadly pandemic, then an economic collapse, and now you're saying that air travel should end while dancing about how the current predicament has made you richer.

What the hell is wrong with you?

Quote:

You call it Ludditism, I call it trying not to destroy the ecosystem.

Oh come off it. Air travel is not the largest driver of pollution and you know it. If you want to take it to its logical conclusion, eliminating humanity might be the only way to "save the ecosystem", which now that I type this surely would explain your recent posting history.

The Great Zaganza · 9th March 2020, 06:05 AM

Future Ice Core sample will provide evidence for the effect the Pandemic has on the world economy.

5th March 2020, 05:38 PM	#201
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 50,537	And the Market lost 1000 points today, losing almost everything it gained on yesterday's Biden BOunce.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

5th March 2020, 06:26 PM	#203
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by marting There's a stark difference between most that have come out recently ( a few days back) and those done during when there was no emerging pandemic. The former being much more positive predicting a short term, relatively minor effect. Not surprising. Haha! Bloody funny, though. I stick by my assessment that they have no idea about pandemics, viruses, and probably science in general. Originally Posted by marting As this info comes out we'll see much more social distancing and concomitant economic effects. It will come into increasing conflict with the notion that coronavirus is just another flu type bug. Lots of blaming and finger pointing ahead. I'm beginning to think that all measures are far too late and we may as well just ignore it and carry on. Originally Posted by Meadmaker Got the memo at work today, in Michigan. 1. If you are the least bit sick, STAY HOME! That advice has completely escaped NZ, so I'll be able to let you know in a fortnight or so. Originally Posted by Meadmaker I suppose having a fair amount of Carnival Cruise Line didn't turn out so well for me. Ouch! Anything to do with travel is being savaged, but yeah, cruises are turds right now. I hope it doesn't for your sake, but I suspect cruising will take a very long time to get past this, if ever. People will always wonder if it could happen again. And the answer to that is: quite possibly. When there's twice as many people as 35 years ago, there's obviously more than twice as many chances of zoonotic diseases arising because a large part of the increase is in poor countries, with poor hygiene and often very close proximity to animals.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

5th March 2020, 07:22 PM	#204
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 43,080	Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

5th March 2020, 09:51 PM	#206
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Futures down a heap already. Tomorrow looks like being another ugly day. And I'm tempted to put this in the humour thread: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia Quote: Wall Street Stock Pros Confess: ‘We Don’t Know What’s Going On’ Which is a pretty awful admission. Go and learn some ******* maths!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

5th March 2020, 10:50 PM	#207
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 47,161	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle? He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

5th March 2020, 05:51 PM	#202
Meadmaker Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 25,503	Bloody Hell! I lost more today than I gained yesterday. I suppose having a fair amount of Carnival Cruise Line didn't turn out so well for me. If they had a huge amount of debt, I would dump them like a hot rock, because I have a feeling that the next six months are going to be a bit rough on cruising companies. However, as it is, their stock is pretty cheap compared to how they were doing until the last couple of months. If they can weather the storm, it should come back. If I were trying to time the market, though, I could imagine shorting that particular stock right now. They aren't going to have a good year. The discussion came up in the office today about whether you would go on a cruise right now, regardless of how cheap it was. Of course, my answer is no. That's the one place where you could end up quarantined for a couple of weeks, surrounded by sick people.

5th March 2020, 08:14 PM	#205
Meadmaker Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 25,503	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind. The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year. Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover. In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe. If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.

5th March 2020, 11:06 PM	#208
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by lionking He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********. Where did I say I wasn't relishing it? Of course I'm relishing it, TVIX are solidly $140 and I'm confident they'll break $300, never mind $200. I'm making a lot of money out of it, and so are several of my mates. What's not to be happy about when you're virtually the only person to nail the stock tip of the century to date?
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th March 2020, 04:16 AM	#209
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 47,161	Originally Posted by The Atheist Where did I say I wasn't relishing it? Of course I'm relishing it, TVIX are solidly $140 and I'm confident they'll break $300, never mind $200. I'm making a lot of money out of it, and so are several of my mates. What's not to be happy about when you're virtually the only person to nail the stock tip of the century to date? Hmmmm Quote: Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster? No. Here you were saying you weren’t gleeful. I suppose you will now say “glee” and “relish” are utterly different. Wouldn’t surprise me. But it’s good to hear you are enjoying the (temporary) misfortune of others.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

6th March 2020, 12:33 PM	#210
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by lionking Here you were saying you weren’t gleeful. I suppose you will now say “glee” and “relish” are utterly different. Wouldn’t surprise me. Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it. Let me spell it out for you: Quote: ...do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster? I've highlighted the important word for you. I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others. Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases. Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah. Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah. Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah. Originally Posted by lionking But it’s good to hear you are enjoying the (temporary) misfortune of others. Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars. TVIX trading at $196.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th March 2020, 12:49 PM	#211
blutoski Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 12,382	Originally Posted by Meadmaker The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year. Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover. In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe. If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy. One of the reasons I don't get involved in individual stocks is that there's just too many unknowns. The ones in the worst position may be the ones that get government bailouts that turn them into winners. Or maybe some of them and not others for arbitrary political reasons (Why Goldman Sachs but not Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns?)
	__________________ "Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett

6th March 2020, 02:55 PM	#212
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 47,161	Originally Posted by The Atheist Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it. Let me spell it out for you: I've highlighted the important word for you. I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others. Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases. Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah. Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah. Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah. Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars. TVIX trading at $196. Good try but completely unconvincing since you didn’t make the distinction between virus and economic effects when originally asked. Anyway your doom and gloom predictions are tiresome. Car production, air travel and equity markets will all bounce back within months. I will be gleeful then.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

6th March 2020, 03:20 PM	#213
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 50,537	I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting. And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. Last edited by dudalb; 6th March 2020 at 03:26 PM.

6th March 2020, 03:23 PM	#214
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 50,537	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind. And rumors that most major film studios are debating whether or not to move their big blockbuster scheduled to open in the next couple of months to a later date. One of the years biggest films "No Time To Die".the last Craig Bond film, has already been pulled from an April/May opening to November.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

6th March 2020, 05:53 PM	#215
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by lionking I will be gleeful then. So, you call me for taking pleasure at seeing rich people lose money, yet you're taking pleasure at destroying the planet's ecosystem. Good work.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th March 2020, 06:07 PM	#216
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 47,161	Originally Posted by The Atheist So, you call me for taking pleasure at seeing rich people lose money, yet you're taking pleasure at destroying the planet's ecosystem. Good work. I’ve seen a lot of straw men in my time here, but this takes the cake. Anyway, enjoy your rejoicing while it lasts.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

6th March 2020, 06:19 PM	#217
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 47,161	Originally Posted by dudalb I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting. And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel. Agreed. And, rather than Black Swan territory, nations and central banks know how to manage recessions. As for air travel, New Zealanders only have to get to Australia, and Australia only needs to send NZ crooks back, so ships can do the job.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

6th March 2020, 07:20 PM	#218
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by lionking I’ve seen a lot of straw men in my time here, but this takes the cake. Yeah, it's s strawman that air travel is a major contributor to greenhouse emissions, in the most-damaging part of the atmosphere: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/c...emissions.html Originally Posted by lionking Anyway, enjoy your rejoicing while it lasts. Are you a bit jealous that you didn't get on and I'm creaming it? Certainly looks that way, because the rejoicing will last forever - I'm already cashed out in profit and have 100 shares that cost me $0 currently worth nearly $200 each. I can not lose.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th March 2020, 07:23 PM	#219
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by lionking Agreed. And, rather than Black Swan territory, nations and central banks know how to manage recessions. That's outstanding - I might even start using that in my sig. Economics not your strong point, is it? The Dow is down 300 today and futs are off 300 more. The Fed cut rates from 2.25 to 1% and the market tanked. Pretty well everyone who can even spell economics recognises this is a black swan, but you know it isn't. I hear the RBA will be looking for a new governor in a year or two - you should apply.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th March 2020, 07:28 PM	#220
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by dudalb I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting. Just to be clear, my prediction was this, from page 1: Quote: I stick by my analysis that if it gets out of control it will be much worse than the entirely artificial GFC. "Worse than the GFC" is not "total meltdown". Originally Posted by dudalb And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel. It's not going to end air travel, unfortunately, but I'm always going to rejoice at any reduction in both air travel and carbon emissions. You call it Ludditism, I call it trying not to destroy the ecosystem.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th March 2020, 10:48 PM	#221
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 43,080	Originally Posted by The Atheist Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it. Let me spell it out for you: I've highlighted the important word for you. I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others. Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases. Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah. Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah. Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah. Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars. TVIX trading at $196. Nobody knows more about TVIX then me.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

7th March 2020, 01:04 AM	#222
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by a_unique_person Nobody knows more about TVIX then me. Well, I hope you bought a heap at $37, then. It's the cheapest they've ever been and they're on the way to $300+ over the next couple of weeks. $1000 would not surprise me at all. It'd please me, though!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th March 2020, 03:46 AM	#223
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 43,080	Everyone knows the TPIX is a much better index.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

8th March 2020, 03:41 PM	#224
Tsukasa Buddha Other (please write in) Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 15,302	Quote: Stock futures tumbled in overnight trading Sunday as investors continued to brace for the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus, while a shocking all-out oil price war added to the anxiety. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 4% drop at the open on Monday. The sharp declines in the futures market pointed to more turbulence ahead after a roller-coaster week that saw the S&P 500 swing up or down more than 2.5% for four days straight. Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed official crude selling prices for April, in a sudden U-turn from previous attempts to support the oil market as the coronavirus hammers global demand. The move came after OPEC talks collapsed Friday, prompting some strategists to see oil prices crater to $20 this year. “Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. “It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” he added. Linky.
	__________________ As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn

8th March 2020, 04:13 PM	#225
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Holy crap, I hadn't caught up with that - another 1000 points down to start the day isn't going to be pretty. The commodity markets are just rubbing salt into the wounds. Gold seems to be the only one showing life, and not a great deal of it. Even Bitcoin fell of a cliff today.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th March 2020, 04:16 PM	#226
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Just a bit further on the economic impact, I'm starting to hear of all kinds of manufacturers running into supply problems. One guy I deal with manages intelligent building controls and they're struggling to get equipment out of China. The follow-on from that will be delayed openings of new buildings, and upgrades left in limbo.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th March 2020, 05:19 PM	#227
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Australian ASX200 down 5% so far today, now 14% off its high set three short weeks ago. And with no sign whatsoever of buyers, it's nowhere near finished.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th March 2020, 07:35 PM	#228
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Just to put things in perspective - this is the economist for BNZ, the second-largest bank in NZ: Quote: "We can't stress enough, though, that this is not a cyclical downturn so the economy won't react to standard cyclical monetary and fiscal policy responses. This downturn is fundamentally a supply shock which, in turn, is creating a demand shock. Its root cause is Covid-19 so how the behaviour of individuals, globally, to this shock evolves will ultimately determine the economic path from here on in. Policymakers can only hope to smooth the process." Picking an almost-certain recession. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...op-it-bnz-says
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th March 2020, 08:15 PM	#229
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,255	Futures down so far > 5% that the future market circuit breakers cut in. Tomorrow should be interesting. Quote: E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 5% to 2,819 as of 8:05 p.m. in New York. After briefly rallying, they slipped back to the limit-down level and held there about two hours later. The curb means the contract can’t trade at a lower price for the remainder of the overnight session, although transactions at or above the threshold are allowed. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rout-...221631295.html I wonder if the NYSE market open will be delayed tomorrow morning.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,255	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

8th March 2020, 08:50 PM	#230
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,255	Originally Posted by The Atheist Just a bit further on the economic impact, I'm starting to hear of all kinds of manufacturers running into supply problems. One guy I deal with manages intelligent building controls and they're struggling to get equipment out of China. The follow-on from that will be delayed openings of new buildings, and upgrades left in limbo. Yeah, this has been in the cards for quite a while and we are really only at the very start of shortage impacts and various shutdowns. Going to get very ugly. Once the shortages start hurting there will be calls for anti-hoarding and price controls, make stock shorting illegal, and so on. Will totally mess up price discovery in markets with long lasting consequences.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,255	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

8th March 2020, 09:03 PM	#231
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,580	Originally Posted by marting Futures down so far > 5% that the future market circuit breakers cut in. Tomorrow should be interesting. I'm not sure "interesting" is the right word. How about "catastrophic"? It's testing a 2-year low right now - I think my prediction of more than 20% is looking spot on at the moment. I'd hate to try to pick the bottom right now - might be like crude oil: no bottom. Originally Posted by marting Yeah, this has been in the cards for quite a while and we are really only at the very start of shortage impacts and various shutdowns. Going to get very ugly. Once the shortages start hurting there will be calls for anti-hoarding and price controls, make stock shorting illegal, and so on. Will totally mess up price discovery in markets with long lasting consequences. I'm waiting for a certain poster to come back and shout about this not being a Black Swan, because you're right - it's only the start. I really don't know how it plays out from here, and I'm pretty sure nobody else does either.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th March 2020, 09:17 PM	#232
lobosrul5 Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 2,194	So, the Sauds are playing with fire, flooding the market with crude. Futures down by about one third overnight right now.
lobosrul5 Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 2,194

8th March 2020, 09:23 PM	#233
lobosrul5 Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 2,194	Originally Posted by Meadmaker The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year. Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover. In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe. If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy. There are, right now, what, 4 major cruise lines? I expect that to be down to 2. One of them is Disney, obviously they have the cash to weather the storm. I haven't the foggiest clue why anyone would ever risk going for a cruise. Seems like theres some new horror story every few months, even before COVID-19.
lobosrul5 Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 2,194	Last edited by lobosrul5; 8th March 2020 at 09:42 PM.

8th March 2020, 09:35 PM	#234
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Flying around in the sky Posts: 26,626	Originally Posted by The Atheist Just to put things in perspective - this is the economist for BNZ, the second-largest bank in NZ: Picking an almost-certain recession. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...op-it-bnz-says If this virus goes away then there will be huge pent up demand and we will be back to the pre 1973 days for a year or two. Companies would put out requests for capital. The virus will go away (for a decade or two) if everyone becomes immune to it. If it is like the flu and comes back every few years (and just as bad as it always is), just as bad then society is doomed. As in recession would be an optimistic term.
	__________________ This signature is for rent.

8th March 2020, 10:41 PM	#235
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,255	Originally Posted by The Atheist I'm not sure "interesting" is the right word. How about "catastrophic"? I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,255	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.