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Old 10th December 2019, 06:34 PM   #681
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
That's what I'm talking about. Poor people that would normally be walking around with only $5 will be walking around with $100 after the UBI. That makes sense.

It's not just muggings. This could set the stage for a new class of extortion of poor people. "I know how much you get every month. Give me $300 a month or I will break your legs."
More likely to be extorted by the cops. A few jaywalking level convictions and a municipal court free with the contempt power is pretty standard. Happens as it is now.

The idea that giving money to poor people is bad because they will have it stolen and end up poor is some galaxy brain level stuff.
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Old 10th December 2019, 06:38 PM   #682
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Won't people just steal the tent anyway?

I mean, if we are going to be cartoonishly simplistic, why not go the whole nine?
I would not rule out cartoonish things happening when all the poor people are suddenly not poor.
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Old 10th December 2019, 06:44 PM   #683
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
The idea that giving money to poor people is bad because they will have it stolen and end up poor is some galaxy brain level stuff.
I think the UBI is a good idea. I also think it needs critical discussion as is happening here. And I think that proponents should not insult or belittle anyone during the discussions.
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Old 10th December 2019, 06:50 PM   #684
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I would not rule out cartoonish things happening when all the poor people are suddenly not poor.
If they can't afford rent, then the poor people are still poor.

Some seriously weird ideas of poverty itt. First those that think people are poor because they bought a new car they couldn't afford and now apparently poor people are all homeless as in living outdoors homeless.
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Old 10th December 2019, 09:09 PM   #685
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As far as cartoonish eventualities and possibilities:

The mugging the poor now flush with cash thing? Easy! Start government sponsored MMA training camps for them, en masse.

As a side benefit, the economy'll perk up, on lean abs, as there is a sudden pickup in demand for MMA instructors, as well as plentiful employment for MMA types, both old-timers and the newly trained, at least in the short run.
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Old 10th December 2019, 09:14 PM   #686
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
As far as cartoonish eventualities and possibilities:

The mugging the poor now flush with cash thing? Easy! Start government sponsored MMA training camps for them, en masse.

As a side benefit, the economy'll perk up, on lean abs, as there is a sudden pickup in demand for MMA instructors, as well as plentiful employment for MMA types, both old-timers and the newly trained, at least in the short run.
Nah. I say go full Frank Zappa and give them all bazookas.
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Old 11th December 2019, 11:26 AM   #687
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
That's what I'm talking about. Poor people that would normally be walking around with only $5 will be walking around with $100 after the UBI. That makes sense.

It's not just muggings. This could set the stage for a new class of extortion of poor people. "I know how much you get every month. Give me $300 a month or I will break your legs."
There would be little left to give the extortionist after the "Payday Lenders" get their cut deposited directly into their coffers.
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Old 11th December 2019, 11:28 AM   #688
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
There would be little left to give the extortionist after the "Payday Lenders" get their cut deposited directly into their coffers.
Those and the rental furnishings and electronics places. It's astonishing how much money can be made off the poor!
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Old 11th December 2019, 11:29 AM   #689
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Those and the rental furnishings and electronics places. It's astonishing how much money can be made off the poor!
Whilst simultaneously denigrating their lack of fiscal responsibility.
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Old 11th December 2019, 11:32 AM   #690
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Whilst simultaneously denigrating their lack of fiscal responsibility.
Well, it's easier to do evil to people if you can denigrate your victims. "I'm only ripping off idiots!" is a surprisingly successful defense of bad actions.
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Old 11th December 2019, 11:36 AM   #691
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Well, it's easier to do evil to people if you can denigrate your victims. "I'm only ripping off idiots!" is a surprisingly successful defense of bad actions.
It is the basis of our economy.
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Old 11th December 2019, 06:23 PM   #692
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I think the UBI is a good idea.
One would hardly have guessed that from your silly mugging arguments.
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Old 13th December 2019, 05:14 PM   #693
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
If it can't be given as immediate cash then the UBI really does have strings attached.
Why can't they be given a card with a password? In what way is that inferior to cash?
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Old 13th December 2019, 05:15 PM   #694
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
In the experiment I linked to above, drug use did not increase. Crime did not increase. People did not work less or go to school less.

And please, what do you think "my policy" is? I don't own UBI, nor do I own this experiment which is a controlled experiment and not a policy.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think your policy is the policy you would like to see implemented, and which you propose, and which you will defend against unfounded criticism.

Please don't turn this into some bizarre scenario where you legitimately think I'm confused about whether you're in charge of a UBI program or a socio-economic experiment of any kind.
Any comment on the highlighted?
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Old 13th December 2019, 05:23 PM   #695
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Any comment on the highlighted?
Apparently not. Do *you* have any comment?
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Old 13th December 2019, 05:39 PM   #696
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Why can't they be given a card with a password? In what way is that inferior to cash?
Probably because everyone wants to get their piece of the pie. For instance, TANF (basic welfare for parents & kids) used to be given as a check. People who couldn't get checking accounts had to use check cashing services, which took a percentage of the money.

That was not right, not acceptable. So now, the government gives the money to recipients on a debit card, managed by JP Morgan Chase, then Chase charges them a fee for each withdrawal. This is considered more just. Chase isn't doing it out of the goodness of their hearts, after all.

This also gives them a record of what people spend, and where, and the cards won't even work at some ATM locations (such as inside casinos).

That should be a few reasons that cards might not go over well.
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Old 14th December 2019, 01:31 PM   #697
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Originally Posted by deadrose View Post
Probably because everyone wants to get their piece of the pie. For instance, TANF (basic welfare for parents & kids) used to be given as a check. People who couldn't get checking accounts had to use check cashing services, which took a percentage of the money.

That was not right, not acceptable. So now, the government gives the money to recipients on a debit card, managed by JP Morgan Chase, then Chase charges them a fee for each withdrawal. This is considered more just. Chase isn't doing it out of the goodness of their hearts, after all.

This also gives them a record of what people spend, and where, and the cards won't even work at some ATM locations (such as inside casinos).

That should be a few reasons that cards might not go over well.
That is terrible. But if that's the norm in the USA, then I can see why some people are talking about carrying cash around, while the Brits are thinking that there is no reason to carry cash.

Here in the UK the nine largest banks are required to offer a basic bank account that includes fee-free basic banking - salary and/or benefits paid in, a debit card, cash withdrawals, direct debits and standing orders. No overdraft facility. No fees to use the account at all, so no need to carry wodges of cash around.

Most of all, no treating benefit recipients like second-class citizens who deserve to be cheated out of what little they have.
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Old 14th December 2019, 03:25 PM   #698
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You can't get a bank account in a lot of places without proving your credit-worthiness. Not for a credit card, for a simple checking account. They're only fee-free if you meet certain conditions, like direct-deposited government checks, or keeping a large balance.

This may not be true with smaller banks or smaller towns, but it's certainly the norm in enough areas to give the predatory check-cashing places and payday lenders reason to exist.

Even if you get an account, you can run up such huge fees that the check cashing places seem like a bargain - at least one bank has been sued for the practice of running all debits before any deposits, so that overdraft fees could be charged. I think (though I'm not positive) that they also organized the debits so that the maximum number would occur overdraft charges (usually around $35). But that doesn't mean they actually let the charge go through - they bounce it, they charge a fee, the payee charges a fee too, and suddenly your jug of milk costs $70.

TLDR: The US banking system is disastrous for poor people.
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Old 14th December 2019, 04:14 PM   #699
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All of that is anathema to our UK sensibilities. What you describe just wouldn't - couldn't by law - happen here.

Once again, the UK and the USA contingents are talking across each other because our basic assumptions (such as legally mandated fee-free bank accounts) are so different.
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Old 14th December 2019, 04:50 PM   #700
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Originally Posted by deadrose View Post
You can't get a bank account in a lot of places without proving your credit-worthiness. Not for a credit card, for a simple checking account. They're only fee-free if you meet certain conditions, like direct-deposited government checks, or keeping a large balance.

This may not be true with smaller banks or smaller towns, but it's certainly the norm in enough areas to give the predatory check-cashing places and payday lenders reason to exist.

Even if you get an account, you can run up such huge fees that the check cashing places seem like a bargain - at least one bank has been sued for the practice of running all debits before any deposits, so that overdraft fees could be charged. I think (though I'm not positive) that they also organized the debits so that the maximum number would occur overdraft charges (usually around $35). But that doesn't mean they actually let the charge go through - they bounce it, they charge a fee, the payee charges a fee too, and suddenly your jug of milk costs $70.

TLDR: The US banking system is disastrous for poor people.

Evidence for any of this? I'm poor as heck and I don't get charged any banking fees for my checking account unless I screw up (Wells Fart-go). Sometimes I have zero dollars in it. Not a problem. And I don't write checks or have a checkbook.

They pretty much charge me nothing ever.


Quote:
posted by Suddenly:
Poor people carry around every penny they have.

Really? I don't. Maybe some "homeless" people do, but I see homeless with cell phones and other goodies. Many aren't even homeless.

I saw a guy last summer park his truck in the very back of a Walmart parking lot, then walk to the front door of the store with a cardboard sign asking for handouts. That's his job.

Ya let's give him free money.

I am much too cynical to ever go for a UBI. People will not "step-up". These people (humans in general) are the same folk who want their income under the table so they don't have to pay child support. Pffft, F people.

I encourage everyone to look up "how to be homeless" on the internet sometime. Check out the discussion forums. I see the same guy on the same intersection several times a week and I will bet he makes more money than I do.

This is not the way to help our society get on its collective feet. Think of something else.
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Old 14th December 2019, 06:00 PM   #701
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Apparently not. Do *you* have any comment?
Not a lot. I think it's informative about some of the ways that UBI may interact with people's incentives and socio-economic responses, and should aleviate some of the concerns you brought up, but obviously at scale things may go differently and if we as a society want to implement UBI we should continue to research both it's potential impacts and it's actual impacts if it is implemented. As those things arise we should also be ready to respond by making changes to the system if things go in the wrong direction.

So in short, I think your concerns are valid, but the data arthwolipot brought makes me optimistic about the usefulness of UBI.
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Old 14th December 2019, 11:02 PM   #702
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Evidence for any of this? I'm poor as heck and I don't get charged any banking fees for my checking account unless I screw up (Wells Fart-go). Sometimes I have zero dollars in it. Not a problem. And I don't write checks or have a checkbook.
Do you have a direct-deposited government check? Social security, for instance?

I've lived in 2 states and one Canadian province and it was like that in all of them. California was the worst, they wanted me to have a bank account and a credit card to open a checking account - and that was back in the 1980s.
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Old 15th December 2019, 12:55 AM   #703
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
I am much too cynical to ever go for a UBI. People will not "step-up". These people (humans in general) are the same folk who want their income under the table so they don't have to pay child support. Pffft, F people.
So you are worried that the "wrong" people might get it?
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Old 15th December 2019, 12:58 AM   #704
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
It will be interesting to see this discounted.
It already was, by the person who you think posted it first.

I'd posted it back on 26th November 2019, 06:52 PM.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...a#post12904661
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Old 15th December 2019, 11:05 AM   #705
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Originally Posted by deadrose View Post
Do you have a direct-deposited government check? Social security, for instance?
Some banks also let people carry over free accounts that were started before they started charging fees. From what I remember about Wells Fargo when I had an account with them (ten years ago, give or take), I didn't need a government check specifically, but the only way to avoid a fee was the direct deposit at least $100 into the account every month, or carry a balance of at least a certain amount (I don't remember what the amount, because at the time I knew I couldn't maintain it).

In my experience, trying to deal with banks while broke is pretty terrible, as well. When I finally got tired of Wells Fargo's shenanigans (including constantly signing me up for "services" they could charge me for without my permission), I tried going back to a local bank where I previously used a free account, only to find out they didn't offer them anymore, and I couldn't find any other banks that did, either. I've been using an online bank for years, and it's much less hassle, although I think the main reason they're so great is that the "bank" is primarily an investment firm and the bank is just an afterthought to them. AFAIK, the only places that offer completely free checking anymore are online banks and some credit unions (although they offer require membership in certain organizations, or a referral, to start an account), most other options generally require you to jump through hoops to avoid fees. I can't even count the number of times a friend has complained to me about their bank charging frustrating fees, then switched banks at my recommendation, and thanked me profusely.
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Old 15th December 2019, 12:58 PM   #706
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post





Really? I don't. Maybe some "homeless" people do, but I see homeless with cell phones and other goodies. Many aren't even homeless.
Homeless people aren't homeless and may prioritize having a communication lifeline. Yes, that's nuts. I figure the first thing they should do is end the main way they have to communicate because that has nothing to do with helping people find jobs and connect with friends so they can be couch surfing homeless for a while before becoming live in a box homeless. Communication is such a waste of money and should be the first thing to go. Good point.
Quote:

I saw a guy last summer park his truck in the very back of a Walmart parking lot, then walk to the front door of the store with a cardboard sign asking for handouts. That's his job.

Ya let's give him free money.

I am much too cynical to ever go for a UBI. People will not "step-up". These people (humans in general) are the same folk who want their income under the table so they don't have to pay child support. Pffft, F people.
I agree. Some poor people are faking and some are bad and this is really important because I'd rather leave the needy out to dry than feel like someone else is getting away with something. I demand everyone be at least as miserable as me or else what is the point of life?
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Old 15th December 2019, 01:07 PM   #707
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Homeless people aren't homeless and may prioritize having a communication lifeline. Yes, that's nuts. I figure the first thing they should do is end the main way they have to communicate because that has nothing to do with helping people find jobs and connect with friends so they can be couch surfing homeless for a while before becoming live in a box homeless. Communication is such a waste of money and should be the first thing to go. Good point.
Yeah, the argument that a homeless person must be faking, or can't actually have it very bad, because they have a fun is just out of touch and wrong. These days, you can get a prepaid phone and a decent amount of minutes for almost nothing. And having a phone is essential for carrying out many tasks of modern-day life, least of all looking and applying for jobs (or maintaining one, for that matter). In fact, getting someone a prepaid phone is usually the first thing a charitable organization will do when trying to help a homeless person, because everyone understands that without some form of communication, that person will stay homeless no matter how much food and clothing you give them.
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Old 15th December 2019, 01:18 PM   #708
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Originally Posted by ArchSas View Post
Yeah, the argument that a homeless person must be faking, or can't actually have it very bad, because they have a fun is just out of touch and wrong. These days, you can get a prepaid phone and a decent amount of minutes for almost nothing. And having a phone is essential for carrying out many tasks of modern-day life, least of all looking and applying for jobs (or maintaining one, for that matter). In fact, getting someone a prepaid phone is usually the first thing a charitable organization will do when trying to help a homeless person, because everyone understands that without some form of communication, that person will stay homeless no matter how much food and clothing you give them.
Why give them phones? They will probably just use them to prank call honest hardworking people to gloat over having a free phone. Plus I saw on the internet they use phones to call fast food places to complain that something was missing from their takeout order as to scam free food.

What they really need is a swift kick in the butt and a bar of soap.
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Old 15th December 2019, 05:21 PM   #709
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Why can't they be given a card with a password? In what way is that inferior to cash?
In Zimbabwe, the inflation rate is 479%. Cash?!

Options should be available.

Cards are great!

In Africa, phone apps and digital currencies are making incredible differences to lives of women, children, etc, not just lazy bastards.

I wish people here spent time asking questions in their search engine, instead of demanding a new Nobel Prize in Economics be written by their opponent.
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Old 15th December 2019, 05:24 PM   #710
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Ooh, look what I just saw on Bregman's Twitter yesterday!

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...study-stimulus

A charity dropped a massive stimulus package on rural Kenya — and transformed the economy


"Now, a research team has released a study of a large-scale GiveDirectly program that distributed over $10 million in cash to rural residents of Siaya County, Kenya, near Lake Victoria. But this time, the focus was not on the individuals who received aid. Instead, the researchers wanted to find out what effect the cash had on the region of Kenya where the aid was being distributed — the first major study to test “general equilibrium” effects of the policy.

"Most striking of all, the study estimates a “fiscal multiplier” of 2.6 for this area of Kenya, implying that every $1 invested in fiscal stimulus will grow the local economy by $2.60. That’s somewhat larger than the multiplier estimated in places like the US when in recession. But “there’s probably many low- and middle-income countries that look more like Kenya than the US,” Miguel says. “These numbers could be very useful in understanding fiscal multipliers in many places across the world.”"
==


The study:

http://emiguel.econ.berkeley.edu/ass...2019-11-20.pdf
This successful study was done in Siaya County, Kenya.

I just realised, I have a friend who lives 200 km by road from Siaya County in Kenya!
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Old 15th December 2019, 05:26 PM   #711
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
In Zimbabwe, the inflation rate is 479%. Cash?!

Options should be available.

Cards are great!

In Africa, phone apps and digital currencies are making incredible differences to lives of women, children, etc, not just lazy bastards.

I wish people here spent time asking questions in their search engine, instead of demanding a new Nobel Prize in Economics be written by their opponent.
WTF does Zimbabwe have to do with anything? Obviously Zimbabwe is still struggling with basic stuff like having a functional economy.

UBI is a late stage luxury of stable, profitable, capitalist economies.
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Old 15th December 2019, 07:20 PM   #712
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I don't normally do new years resolutions, but this year I resolve to go cashless whenever possible. The other day I deposited almost $500 worth of spare change into my bank account.
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Old 15th December 2019, 08:25 PM   #713
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Without reading the whole thread, the larger issue is that the society at some point will have to come to terms with the fact that there won't be enough traditional work to go around. For most of human history, the large majority of people spent their lives growing food. A tiny percentage do that now. The industrial revolution put people to work in factories, doing repetitive semiskilled physical labor. But robots are now doing that in many factories, and the only people in the place are the trained technicians that maintain the robots. Even Amazon is starting to use robots to shelve and pick products in their warehouses, something that has been done -- and is still done in most locations -- by humans running 10 to 12 miles a shift. Law firms are using electronic scanners to do document searches that used to require lawyers and paralegals. Legal research is being outsourced to India. Xrays and lab results are getting reviewed by doctors and technicians in third-world countries. Even fast-food shops are replacing cashiers with tablets and screens. Not everyone can get an advanced degree in a narrow technical field, and even if he does there's no guarantee that it won't become obsolete.

At some point there will need to be some minimum distribution of the society's wealth. People with specialized marketable skills will still benefit by having more money than others, but just as Social Security provides a floor for all retirees, there will have to be an income floor for everyone. The alternatives are mass starvation or violent revolution.

Last edited by Bob001; 15th December 2019 at 08:27 PM.
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Old 15th December 2019, 09:32 PM   #714
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Without reading the whole thread, the larger issue is that the society at some point will have to come to terms with the fact that there won't be enough traditional work to go around...

At some point there will need to be some minimum distribution of the society's wealth. (lots of snipping)
For me, the weirdest thing about this debate is that it seems like (for the most part) people have known about this for decades. I've seen things going back to the 1920s (at least) talking about how the workforce was so efficient, and thanks to the miracles of automation, people are going to working barely any actual hours in the future. Well... at some point that's actually going to have to happen, and we seem to have forgotten about that, and now were all at a weird juncture where it's not necessary for most jobs, but we're all still working 40 hours a week because it's expected (for more on this see the "B.S jobs" concept that sociologists have been writing about for a few years).

On some level, this is the thing people have been talking about and hoping for for as long as any of us have been alive. And from the way the economy is going, it seem inevitable anyway. So it's at least a worthwhile effort to talk about how we want this impressive future where everyone only has to work part-time to go, functionally. I'm not sure if anyone has figured out the best system, but damn, shouldn't we all be thinking about embracing the future we were all promised by the sci-fi writers now that it can be a reality? Everyone was looking forward to it when this stuff was being predicted, it's worth thinking about.
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Old 16th December 2019, 07:42 AM   #715
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Originally Posted by ArchSas View Post
For me, the weirdest thing about this debate is that it seems like (for the most part) people have known about this for decades. I've seen things going back to the 1920s (at least) talking about how the workforce was so efficient, and thanks to the miracles of automation, people are going to working barely any actual hours in the future. Well... at some point that's actually going to have to happen, and we seem to have forgotten about that, and now were all at a weird juncture where it's not necessary for most jobs, but we're all still working 40 hours a week because it's expected (for more on this see the "B.S jobs" concept that sociologists have been writing about for a few years).

On some level, this is the thing people have been talking about and hoping for for as long as any of us have been alive. And from the way the economy is going, it seem inevitable anyway. So it's at least a worthwhile effort to talk about how we want this impressive future where everyone only has to work part-time to go, functionally. I'm not sure if anyone has figured out the best system, but damn, shouldn't we all be thinking about embracing the future we were all promised by the sci-fi writers now that it can be a reality? Everyone was looking forward to it when this stuff was being predicted, it's worth thinking about.
We have been doing this for a century.
Child labor laws reduced the workforce.
Social Security reduced the workforce.
Disability insurance reduced the workforce.
Expansion of post secondary education reduced the workforce.
Welfare reduced the workforce.
Huge incarceration rates reduced the workforce.

We have been taking people out of the workforce, and paying to do so, as long as "progress"
has been happening. While simultaneously reducing the required amount of unpaid "labor" required to live a sanitary, healthy and comfortable life.

UBI seems like a logical progression of this trend.
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Old 16th December 2019, 08:17 PM   #716
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I'm pretty sure that there was a video posted earlier in the thread which made the convincing case that this workforce reduction is different and unprecedented.
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Old 17th December 2019, 12:00 AM   #717
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
In Zimbabwe, the inflation rate is 479%. Cash?!

Options should be available.

Cards are great!

In Africa, phone apps and digital currencies are making incredible differences to lives of women, children, etc, not just lazy bastards.

I wish people here spent time asking questions in their search engine, instead of demanding a new Nobel Prize in Economics be written by their opponent.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
WTF does Zimbabwe have to do with anything? Obviously Zimbabwe is still struggling with basic stuff like having a functional economy.

UBI is The world is in a late stage luxury of stable, profitable, capitalist economies.
FTFY

I can post words all over the ISF, and you can cherry-pick a few of the words I've worked hard to tailor for each topic, and pretend you've not seen the other posts, but if you don't think about them, and you don't try and form a bigger picture in your mind, I suggest you'll like this thread better:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=331808
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Old 18th December 2019, 04:16 AM   #718
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Don't know if anyone already posted this:

https://ubicalculator.com/

US-based UBI calculator that looks at how household income is affected under different proposed UBI schemes with different funding methods.
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Old 18th December 2019, 03:36 PM   #719
Elaedith
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Looking at the UBI calculator I posted above, if I were a US citizen, apparently I would be better off by about $5400 under Yang's scheme and nearly $4000 under Santens'. These both say that more than 90% of households would be better off. This is a higher percentage than I initially envisaged when thinking about this.

In the UK, if you gave me an annual UBI of £10,000 but abolished tax-free thresholds and counted the UBI towards reaching the threshold for higher marginal tax rates, you would get back about £5000 in taxes so I would also be better off without any other adjustments.

I'm not sure that I should be better off with my relatively high income (of course, I don't think I should be worse off either, but am probably biased about that ). If I did get an extra £5000 I would probably pay a lot more into my employer-sponsored pension scheme, which would then have some tax implications. I’m not sure that this is optimal, and it does suggest that the finer details of a UBI scheme could be tricky.

I'm not abandoning my interest in UBI, just thinking through some potential issues.
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Old 18th December 2019, 05:05 PM   #720
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Originally Posted by Elaedith View Post
Don't know if anyone already posted this:

https://ubicalculator.com/

US-based UBI calculator that looks at how household income is affected under different proposed UBI schemes with different funding methods.

Do you know if there's anything comparable for other countries? And I didn't understand the bit about putting in your income before investments. If you're taking your personal pension, isn't that "investments"?
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