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Old 15th January 2019, 04:13 PM   #201
qayak
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
You said:

When the reality is that, even without treatment, more like 95% of "alcoholics" will stop drinking (harmfully) by age 65, due to the "aging out" (of risky behaviors) effect.

It's a little weirder than that when you get into the details, but the overall effect is basically similar to that.
AA uses a metric for their success rate. They look at various time periods, say 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years in the program. When researchers used AA's metric for alcoholics who didn't attend treatment programs the results were the same.

The fact that the vast majority of alcoholics stop drinking by age 65 is irrelevant to any of this.
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Old 15th January 2019, 06:21 PM   #202
kellyb
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Originally Posted by qayak View Post
AA uses a metric for their success rate. They look at various time periods, say 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years in the program.
AA often claims a 75% effectiveness rate. [source]
Sometimes they claim a 100% effectiveness rate. [source]
They don't state their metrics anywhere. They don't have metrics. They don't think they need metrics. AA's claims are based on faith and their own folk wisdom.

When you say, "AA uses a metric for their success rate. They look at various time periods, say 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years in the program.",... what are you talking about?

The only thing I know of that comes close to "published research" directly from AA is this, which is nonscientific gobbledygook, and all you can tell from it is that in any given meeting, about 5% of the people there will be at 12 months sober, which tells you nothing about effectiveness.

Quote:
The fact that the vast majority of alcoholics stop drinking by age 65 is irrelevant to any of this.
It's evidence that by age 65, the success rate of doing "nothing formal" treatment-wise is a surprising ~95%.

Quote:
Even without treatment, and measured the way AA is measured, 5-8% of alcoholics will stop drinking.
What's your source for that?
Just curious. It doesn't sound implausible. Just wondering how many years out that is.
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