ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Saudi Arabia incidents , US-Iran relations

Reply
Old 13th May 2019, 01:44 AM   #1
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,023
Casus Belli?

On the news;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48245204
Saudi complaining that oil tankers have been 'sabotaged'. Including one due to deliver oil to the US. Co-incidently (or not) the US has just moved military resources into the Gulf literally to threaten Iran. I suspect very shortly we will see Iran blamed, we will also hear people blaming the other usual suspects. Politically blaming Iran seems to be the path most likely to be taken by the present US administration. I await a period of ramping up tension then a US military strike on Iran. I am sure there are people who will have a better knowledge of when military escalation will be politically most expedient.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th May 2019, 02:19 AM   #2
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 23,370
I expect some sabre-rattling, but not a war. I don't see how that's in anyone's interest.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th May 2019, 02:22 AM   #3
Henri McPhee
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Bristol UK
Posts: 3,570
It's madness.
Henri McPhee is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th May 2019, 04:28 AM   #4
dann
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 7,571
It improved Bush Junior's popularity immensely, which is probably one of the few facts of U.S. foreign policy that Trump is not unaware of.
__________________
/dann
"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
dann is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 12:14 AM   #5
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,023
So just to bump my own thread; an article from the BBC making the case (and being the BBC also dismissing it).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48298517
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 12:46 AM   #6
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 7,976
The entire Trump administration is characterized by last-ditch efforts of regressive forces.

NeoCon politics-by-war is just another example: Bolton and Pompeo know that it is now or never.
__________________
Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isnít.
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 12:49 AM   #7
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 23,370
I've been hearing reports (sourced to unnamed sources, so grain of salt) that Bolton is the real warmonger but Trump doesn't want a war.

Trump Tells Pentagon Chief He Does Not Want War With Iran (NY Times)

Quote:
WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to put the brakes on a brewing confrontation with Iran in recent days, telling the acting defense secretary, Patrick Shanahan, that he does not want to go to war with Iran, administration officials said, while his senior diplomats began searching for ways to defuse the tensions.

Mr. Trump’s statement, during a Wednesday morning meeting in the Situation Room, sent a message to his hawkish aides that he does not want the intensifying American pressure campaign against the Iranians to explode into open conflict.

For now, an administration that had appeared to be girding for conflict seems more determined to find a diplomatic off-ramp.
Quote:
The administration’s internal debate over Iran was described by five senior officials who demanded anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.
Is John Bolton Manipulating Trump to Attack Iran? (The New Yorker)

Quote:
From Bolton’s point of view, the danger is that Trump will negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran. Trump pulled out of the existing nuclear deal on the general principle that any deal negotiated by Barack Obama is bad and could be made better by renowned deal artist Donald Trump. The president has openly signaled his desire to negotiate with Iran. Trump could cut a slightly tweaked version of the old deal and declare the new, rebranded Iran nuclear agreement to be tough and effective, because Trump negotiated it. The NAFTA playbook, in other words. “We just don’t want them to have nuclear weapons,” he has said. “That’s all we want.”

But that’s definitely not all Bolton wants. The whole point of negating the Iran deal, for Bolton, was to force a confrontation on a wide array of Iranian behavior. His problem with the deal, aside from his hostility to negotiating deals in general, was that it stopped Iran’s nuclear program but let the regime maintain its political and conventional military influence. Bolton wants to broaden the terms of the conflict with Iran, which will inevitably lead to a war Bolton hopes can either cripple the regime or topple it altogether.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 01:10 AM   #8
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 7,976
the job of National Security Advisers is to balance the input and views of different parts of the Defense and IC community.
Putting a warmonger with a hawkish agenda in that role was pure insanity.
It's like putting a coal-lobbyist in charge of the EPA.
__________________
Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isnít.
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 08:34 AM   #9
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 21,076
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I expect some sabre-rattling, but not a war. I don't see how that's in anyone's interest.
It doesn't have to actually BE in anyone's interest, Bolton just has to convince Trump that it is in his (Trump's) interest. Iraq 2003 wasn't in anyone's interest either.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 09:32 AM   #10
Dancing David
Penultimate Amazing
 
Dancing David's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: central Illinois
Posts: 39,552
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
On the news;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48245204
Saudi complaining that oil tankers have been 'sabotaged'. Including one due to deliver oil to the US. Co-incidently (or not) the US has just moved military resources into the Gulf literally to threaten Iran. I suspect very shortly we will see Iran blamed, we will also hear people blaming the other usual suspects. Politically blaming Iran seems to be the path most likely to be taken by the present US administration. I await a period of ramping up tension then a US military strike on Iran. I am sure there are people who will have a better knowledge of when military escalation will be politically most expedient.
Bait and switch before invading Venezuela?
__________________
I suspect you are a sandwich, metaphorically speaking. -Donn
And a shot rang out. Now Space is doing time... -Ben Burch
You built the toilet - don't complain when people crap in it. _Kid Eager
Never underestimate the power of the Random Number God. More of evolutionary history is His doing than people think. - Dinwar
Dancing David is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 10:01 AM   #11
cosmicaug
Muse
 
cosmicaug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 989
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Bolton already has clearly manipulated Trump at least once before. He manipulated Trump into canceling the first North Korea summit and it was blatant (Pence may have been recruited into the effort). Of course, as something more about ego gratification (because, by internationally showcasing him as the master deal maker, it would have, in his view, given him a Nobel Peace Prize just like the one Obama got) than about geopolitics (a realm in which Trump has shamelessly demonstrated a spectacular level of ignorance: both in general and specifically regarding North Korea related issues), it didn't last since it was too important to Trump.

So it has been demonstrated that Bolton will not hesitate to blatantly undercut the president's efforts in order to promote his own agenda and that, under at least some circumstances, Trump can be too simple minded and weak to see through the manipulation and to resist it.

There exists a perception that in Trump's circle of advisers Jim Mattis (probably appointed by Trump for having a cool nickname) has served as a counterpoint to Bolton and that his de facto successor, acting Secretary of defense Shanahan, is likely not up to the task of standing up to Bolton.


ETA: While Bolton's notions of foreign policy in general are horrible, he was clearly right in regard to how whatever the proper way to engage diplomatically with North Korea the way Trump/Pompeo were doing it wasn't it.
__________________
--
August Pamplona

Last edited by cosmicaug; 17th May 2019 at 10:05 AM. Reason: Addendum
cosmicaug is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th May 2019, 05:03 PM   #12
applecorped
Rotten to the Core
 
applecorped's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 19,305
Any relation to Cassius Clay?
__________________
All You Need Is Love.
applecorped is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th May 2019, 09:43 PM   #13
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,023
Trump threaten to destroy Iran.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48329852
It is worth considering the response if the Iranian president spoke about Israel in the same terms. There would be wide spread criticism.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th May 2019, 09:51 PM   #14
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 7,976
Meanwhile, North Korea can do no wrong.

How many test missiles has Teheran shot towards a close US Ally?
__________________
Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isnít.
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2019, 06:36 AM   #15
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
 
ponderingturtle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 46,063
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I expect some sabre-rattling, but not a war. I don't see how that's in anyone's interest.
Did starting a trade war with china advance anyone's interests?

We will see what Bolton and Trump think, they are the ones in control after all.
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody
"There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos
Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin
ponderingturtle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2019, 06:38 AM   #16
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
 
ponderingturtle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 46,063
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I've been hearing reports (sourced to unnamed sources, so grain of salt) that Bolton is the real warmonger but Trump doesn't want a war.
Trump says a lot of things, you are supposed to take him seriously not literally, so you can't exactly depend on what he says to mean anything. That was always one of his big selling points.
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody
"There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos
Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin
ponderingturtle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2019, 06:51 AM   #17
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 7,976
since Trump was told, emphatically, that he can't just steal the resources of other countries through occupation, he can't see the point in war.
__________________
Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isnít.
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2019, 06:55 AM   #18
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
 
ponderingturtle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 46,063
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
since Trump was told, emphatically, that he can't just steal the resources of other countries through occupation, he can't see the point in war.
Make it easier to move his child concentration camps to guantanamo?

https://hillreporter.com/white-house...namo-bay-32575
__________________
Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody
"There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos
Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin
ponderingturtle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 20th May 2019, 06:56 AM   #19
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
 
The Great Zaganza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 7,976
Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Make it easier to move his child concentration camps to guantanamo?

https://hillreporter.com/white-house...namo-bay-32575
waterboarding is really not so different from a day in a waterpark ...
__________________
Opinion is divided on the subject. All the others say it is; I say it isnít.
The Great Zaganza is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old Today, 11:53 AM   #20
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 3,023
US sends 1500 additional troops to 'defend' against Iran.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48404141
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:14 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.