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Old 22nd May 2020, 01:34 PM   #2281
Elagabalus
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Um, no? Italy didn't have a single death under 30, for example.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ns_143253.html
Hey, a link! Bravo!

So this is where you've been getting all your info? This was from March.


Aaron Ginn, Medium March 22, 2020

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/20...ia_505280.html

Medium apparently took the article down so here is another link.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/cov...-over-hysteria


A rebuttal from Carl T. Bergstrom twitter feed. I think he also critiqued the Bakersfield doctors?

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...22140559503360
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Old 22nd May 2020, 01:57 PM   #2282
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This just in, from the Doctors of Stoneology at the University of Lethbridge:


canadian-study-finds-that-enzymes-cannabis-could-treat-covid
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Old 22nd May 2020, 02:27 PM   #2283
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
This just in, from the Doctors of Stoneology at the University of Lethbridge:


canadian-study-finds-that-enzymes-cannabis-could-treat-covid
That is so cool!

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Old 22nd May 2020, 02:32 PM   #2284
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a new generation of antiviral compounds

FWIW, my prediction is that a new generation of remdesivir-like molecules which target the polymerization of RNA in non-classical ways will become an important part of the arsenal against this disease. However, such compounds are probably years away from deployment.
EDT
Perhaps the enzyme that performs the proofreading function of RNA polymerization could be separately targeted, which might make present or future generations of drugs targeting RNA-dependent RNA polymerase more effective.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 03:17 PM   #2285
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That is so cool!

^^^^^

Shouldn't that be pizza?

Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
FWIW, my prediction is that a new generation of remdesivir-like molecules which target the polymerization of RNA in non-classical ways will become an important part of the arsenal against this disease. However, such compounds are probably years away from deployment.
EDT
Perhaps the enzyme that performs the proofreading function of RNA polymerization could be separately targeted, which might make present or future generations of drugs targeting RNA-dependent RNA polymerase more effective.
Yeah, I saw that line of thinking early on, so we just need to find out which drug/mix of drugs works best.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 03:23 PM   #2286
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Mucking about with RNA is always scary..
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Old 22nd May 2020, 07:46 PM   #2287
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Um, no? Italy didn't have a single death under 30, for example.



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ns_143253.html


:
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Old 22nd May 2020, 08:59 PM   #2288
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The Coronavirus’ Hidden Death Toll in America’s Counties
Our examination of 366 counties across the United States finds that COVID-19 deaths were two to 30 times higher than reported COVID-19 death rates.


I haven't heard of the Surgo Foundation before, to note, but county level number watching and excess deaths is pretty close to the best we've got when testing isn't even close to up to par.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 01:40 AM   #2289
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Biggest study so far suggests hydroxychloroquine (and chloroquine and azithromycin and combinations) increase risk of death from covid-19. Editorial in Lancet links to full paper.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...174-0/fulltext
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Old 23rd May 2020, 02:42 AM   #2290
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‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 07:20 AM   #2291
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
This just in, from the Doctors of Stoneology at the University of Lethbridge:


canadian-study-finds-that-enzymes-cannabis-could-treat-covid
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That is so cool!


Someone needs to let The Trump know. He'll have everyone vaping CBD oil in no time.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 07:22 AM   #2292
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post

CDC is fudging their public numbers to make it look like things are improving.

The next step is to find out why, and whose idea it was.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 07:26 AM   #2293
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
This just in, from the Doctors of Stoneology at the University of Lethbridge:


canadian-study-finds-that-enzymes-cannabis-could-treat-covid
Thatís better than hydroxychloroquine.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 09:40 AM   #2294
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antiviral strategies

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, I saw that line of thinking early on, so we just need to find out which drug/mix of drugs works best.
Do you have a link or two handy? If not, don't worry about it.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 11:33 AM   #2295
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Less than a month later (oh how time flies)


Per the same source, states with >1k recorded covid-19 deaths (green=change in rank):

1: 28,743 New York NY
2: 10,985 New Jersey NJ

03: 6,148 Massachusetts MA
04: 5,129 Michigan MI
05: 4,985 Pennsylvania PA
06: 4,607 Illinois IL
07: 3,604 California CA
08: 3,583 Connecticut CT
09: 2,629 Louisiana LA
10: 2,207 Maryland MA
11: 2,190 Florida FL
12: 1,940 Indiana IN (new)
13: 1,837 Ohio OH (new)
14: 1,783 Georgia GA
15: 1,461 Texas TX (new)
16: 1,310 Colorado CO (new)
17: 1,137 Virginia VA (double new)
18: 1,044 Washington WA (new)

19: 851 Minnesota MN (new)
20: 764 Arizona AZ (new)
21: 759 North Carolina NC (new)
22: 672 Missouri MO (new)
23: 595 Mississippi MS (new)
25: 579 Rhode Island RI (new)
26: 533 Alabama AL (new)


At the next update, which among the [19,26] will jump into the >1k group?

Will NY and NJ have any company, in 2020 (>10k)?

How many states will eventually, in 2020, record >1k Covid-19 deaths?
Per a WaPo story in the last 24 hours or so, "Study estimates 24 states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread" (sorry, I don't seem to be able to make a link just now):

Quote:
In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1. Texas tops the list, followed by Arizona, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, South Carolina, Massachusetts, North Carolina, California, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Maryland.
I guess, in the next three weeks or so, Arizona, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, and North Carolina will join the 1k club; and Iowa, Wisconsin, Tennessee, New Mexico, Delaware, and South Carolina the 500-1,000 club.

This FiveThirtyEight page is excellent: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed ó And Why They Disagree!

From the individual state models, it seems that MA, PA, and IL (but not MI) will likely join NY and NJ within a month.

Quote:
No matter which reliable source you use, the current recorded number of Covid-19 deaths in the US exceeds 85k. In fact, it passed 85k several days ago.

I guess the sandbags didn't stem the tide/flood after all ...
Pixel42, Marcus: thanks for pointing to the "concession" thread.

Quote:
Did Doghouse Reilly make any other Covid-19 bets?
Did he?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 12:48 PM   #2296
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Per a WaPo story in the last 24 hours or so, "Study estimates 24 states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread" (sorry, I don't seem to be able to make a link just now...
What does "double new"mean?

Thanks
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Old 23rd May 2020, 12:56 PM   #2297
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
What does "double new"mean?

Thanks
It jumped from not on either list (>1k, [500, 1k]) to the >1k list.

Or, from <500 recorded Covid-19 deaths to >1k such deaths, in less than a month.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 02:19 PM   #2298
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Our examination of 366 counties across the United States finds that COVID-19 deaths were two to 30 times higher than reported COVID-19 death rates.
But but but.... counties are over-counting by listing everything except gunshot wounds to the head as a Covid death!11!1!!

Given evidence worldwide showing a huge gap between reported Covid deaths and the number of people who died since February, I'd say your source is highly probable to be right.

Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
Do you have a link or two handy? If not, don't worry about it.
No I don't, but I did post details way back. Probably doesn't help much - with the tsunami of information and the jillion posts in these threads, searching for it isn't easy.

Meanwhile, two potentially crucial pieces of information today, from opposite sides of the Atlantic that seem to indicate the best answer might just be in tweaking the immune response:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/21/...n-unique-ways/

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52754280
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Last edited by novaphile; 23rd May 2020 at 04:10 PM. Reason: Fixed QUOTE tag
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Old 23rd May 2020, 03:55 PM   #2299
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The NY Times had an article on a phase 3 Remdesivir study. The good news: there was a statistically significant decrease in the amount of time that seriously ill patients stayed in a hospital. The bad news: there was not a statistically significant decrease in the mortality rate (though there apparently was a slight decrease).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/h...Mgy1qTzTtsB_Y0
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Old 23rd May 2020, 05:15 PM   #2300
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
CDC is fudging their public numbers to make it look like things are improving.

The next step is to find out why, and whose idea it was.
I'm pretty sure we can guess the answers to those last two questions.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 05:29 PM   #2301
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Here's an interesting site. (Apologies if someone has already posted this. The thread's too long to go back and read it all)

https://rt.live

It shows the effective reproduction number in each state in the US. In other words, whether the spread of the virus is slowing down or increasing. A number above 1 means the rate of spread in increasing, and below 1 means the rate of spread is slowing. If it stays below 1 for long enough, there would be fewer and fewer cases over time.

Right now it shows 5 states with Rt above 1. But also many more with Rt above 0.9, which means the rate of spread is slowing but only gradually.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 05:35 PM   #2302
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
But but but.... counties are over-counting by listing everything except gunshot wounds to the head as a Covid death!11!1!!

Given evidence worldwide showing a huge gap between reported Covid deaths and the number of people who died since February, I'd say your source is highly probable to be right.



No I don't, but I did post details way back. Probably doesn't help much - with the tsunami of information and the jillion posts in these threads, searching for it isn't easy.

Meanwhile, two potentially crucial pieces of information today, from opposite sides of the Atlantic that seem to indicate the best answer might just be in tweaking the immune response:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/21/...n-unique-ways/

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52754280
T-cells, hmm? There are studies showing that vitamin D is important for those. (here we go again! lol)

ETA: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21527855/

Last edited by Ulf Nereng; 23rd May 2020 at 05:36 PM.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 05:53 PM   #2303
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
T-cells, hmm? There are studies showing that vitamin D is important for those. (here we go again! lol)

ETA: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21527855/
For the record, a vitamin D deficiency will weaken your immune system. But extra vitamin D will not "boost" your immune system.
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 08:26 PM   #2304
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
T-cells, hmm? There are studies showing that vitamin D is important for those. (here we go again! lol)
Hmmm.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
For the record, a vitamin D deficiency will weaken your immune system. But extra vitamin D will not "boost" your immune system.
No, but one thing I did note from looking at vitamin D a long time back is that an amazing percentage of people are at least slightly deficient in it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/

When you consider Covid seems to be reacting badly with 5% of people, what's to say it's not the 5% that are the most deficient? The racial makeup of deficiency seems to coincide with minority races being most affected by Covid as well.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 08:45 PM   #2305
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hmmm.



No, but one thing I did note from looking at vitamin D a long time back is that an amazing percentage of people are at least slightly deficient in it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/

When you consider Covid seems to be reacting badly with 5% of people, what's to say it's not the 5% that are the most deficient? The racial makeup of deficiency seems to coincide with minority races being most affected by Covid as well.
Also kidney disease causes a D prob, ummm, a couple steps umm, kidneys turn D3 into D2? Bad kidneys pass off the D3 transporter??

My nephrologist has me in a monthly mega dose of D2 for my low D. .
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Old 23rd May 2020, 08:56 PM   #2306
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I have an interesting scenario. My son has been offered a job in the UK, available now. Assuming he can get there (I can’t see a possible way now) would be get to bypass quarantine as a) he has already had the virus and has fully recovered and b) Australia has almost eradicated the virus? I guess he would.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 10:09 PM   #2307
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Here's an interesting site. (Apologies if someone has already posted this. The thread's too long to go back and read it all)

https://rt.live

It shows the effective reproduction number in each state in the US. In other words, whether the spread of the virus is slowing down or increasing. A number above 1 means the rate of spread in increasing, and below 1 means the rate of spread is slowing. If it stays below 1 for long enough, there would be fewer and fewer cases over time.

Right now it shows 5 states with Rt above 1. But also many more with Rt above 0.9, which means the rate of spread is slowing but only gradually.
Easing restrictions well see that change.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 11:18 PM   #2308
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I have an interesting scenario. My son has been offered a job in the UK, available now. Assuming he can get there (I canít see a possible way now) would be get to bypass quarantine as a) he has already had the virus and has fully recovered and b) Australia has almost eradicated the virus? I guess he would.
At the moment the only proposed exemptions I have seen are for Ireland, Channel Islands and Isle of Man. There was some mention that arrivals from countries with low rates might be exempt after an initial blanket quarantine period. I haven't seen any discussion about people who can be documented to have had the virus. Is there still some uncertainty about whether people can catch it again?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 11:23 PM   #2309
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Originally Posted by Elaedith View Post
At the moment the only proposed exemptions I have seen are for Ireland, Channel Islands and Isle of Man. There was some mention that arrivals from countries with low rates might be exempt after an initial blanket quarantine period. I haven't seen any discussion about people who can be documented to have had the virus. Is there still some uncertainty about whether people can catch it again?
The exemption for Ireland is staggering as it has one of the highest infection and death rates in the world and worse than the UK. Is Boris trying to spread the virus?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 11:31 PM   #2310
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I imagine the Common Travel Area rules would make quarantining travellers from Ireland particularly difficult. Johnson doesn't do difficult.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 11:51 PM   #2311
Ulf Nereng
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hmmm.



No, but one thing I did note from looking at vitamin D a long time back is that an amazing percentage of people are at least slightly deficient in it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/

When you consider Covid seems to be reacting badly with 5% of people, what's to say it's not the 5% that are the most deficient? The racial makeup of deficiency seems to coincide with minority races being most affected by Covid as well.
That's a thought I've been toying with as well. I don't think it can be all the answer, but I'm sure that different countries will have different rates of (severe) vitamin D deficiency. I visit my GP every six months and she always checks my blood. Some years back she told me to take a vitamin D supplement every day and keep doing that for the rest of my life. But I don't know if all Norwegian GPs check for that. I suspect they do because they probably all read the same Norwegian medical journal. Is that different in different countries? What's the percentage of people who visit a GP regularly in different countries, and what do the GPs check for?

On the other hand, surely some researchers would have spotted it if a large percentage of covid victims were vitamin D deficient, considering all the research that's going on?
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Old 24th May 2020, 12:15 AM   #2312
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
That's a thought I've been toying with as well. I don't think it can be all the answer, but I'm sure that different countries will have different rates of (severe) vitamin D deficiency.
I never bothered checking the low countries, but it's a fact that some of the very low impact countries have high fish consumption.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Is that different in different countries? What's the percentage of people who visit a GP regularly in different countries, and what do the GPs check for?
I can only speak for my family, and it's not checked as a routine matter. I have annual blood tests and my 10 yo son does as well. Interestingly, they check his vitamin B levels, but haven't ever looked at D.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
On the other hand, surely some researchers would have spotted it if a large percentage of covid victims were vitamin D deficient, considering all the research that's going on?
Now that's bloody interesting, because I was looking hard a few weeks ago - when people pooh-poohed the idea, but there's a whole heap of research available now.

Some highlights:

Quote:
A growing body of circumstantial evidence now also specifically links outcomes of COVID-19 and vitamin D status.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...183-2/fulltext
Quote:
A recent meta-analysis brought together results from 25 trials with more than 10,000 participants who were randomised to receive vitamin D or a placebo.

It found vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory infections, but only when it was given daily or weekly, rather than in a large single dose.

The benefits of regular supplementation were greatest among participants who were severely vitamin D deficient to begin with, for whom the risk of respiratory infection went down by 70%. In others the risk decreased by 25%.
link

And Science Daily to finish off:

Quote:
Vitamin D levels appear to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates
I'm going to go and post all that in the territory thread.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:09 AM   #2313
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
The exemption for Ireland is staggering as it has one of the highest infection and death rates in the world and worse than the UK. Is Boris trying to spread the virus?
Ireland shows a higher case count, lower death count (per million pop). Difference in testing and tracing could explain that.

Ireland's curve seems squashed, U.K. is coming down slowly, still at about half of peak.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:21 AM   #2314
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Ireland shows a higher case count, lower death count (per million pop). Difference in testing and tracing could explain that.

Ireland's curve seems squashed, U.K. is coming down slowly, still at about half of peak.
Okay, I know there are some differences between sources, but even if the death rate is not as high, do you think itís a good idea for Ireland to have free access to the UK without quarantine? Because I donít.
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Old 24th May 2020, 01:46 AM   #2315
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Okay, I know there are some differences between sources, but even if the death rate is not as high, do you think itís a good idea for Ireland to have free access to the UK without quarantine? Because I donít.
Only for the general reason of reducing contact and spread between regions, yes.

It's not a good idea for anyone to enter another country without steps to reduce potential infections.
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Old 24th May 2020, 03:32 AM   #2316
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I have an interesting scenario. My son has been offered a job in the UK, available now. Assuming he can get there (I canít see a possible way now) would be get to bypass quarantine as a) he has already had the virus and has fully recovered and b) Australia has almost eradicated the virus? I guess he would.

He needs to fly into Dublin and catch a connecting flight to the UK or a taxi to NI.
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Old 24th May 2020, 04:40 AM   #2317
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Okay, I know there are some differences between sources, but even if the death rate is not as high, do you think itís a good idea for Ireland to have free access to the UK without quarantine? Because I donít.
This is one of those common sense things that may not be true. I recognise it is widely done. There are many reasons why it may not be very effective.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/is-a-1...d-of-covid-19/
Social distancing, to limit spread of any case imported or endemic, quarantining cases and testing and tracing contacts are probably more effective. In military terms we need defence in depth rather than a Maginot line.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:00 AM   #2318
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
This is one of those common sense things that may not be true. I recognise it is widely done. There are many reasons why it may not be very effective.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/is-a-1...d-of-covid-19/
Social distancing, to limit spread of any case imported or endemic, quarantining cases and testing and tracing contacts are probably more effective. In military terms we need defence in depth rather than a Maginot line.
Good point. Border restrictions have value only when there is a large asymmetry in cases. But to even know that you have to have sufficient testing in place or it's just guessing.

Where it matters most is where the asymmetries are such that border restrictions have a material effect and that's in the earliest stages. It's also more useful where there are natural borders like islands.

Border restrictions tend to have a lot of popular support when they are least effective and conversely, the least support and most opposition in the limited timeframe they actually provide value.
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Old 24th May 2020, 10:08 AM   #2319
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Okay, I know there are some differences between sources, but even if the death rate is not as high, do you think itís a good idea for Ireland to have free access to the UK without quarantine? Because I donít.
Wouldnít the same concern apply to internal travel as well? Perhaps even more so, such as from London to a rural area of Scotland for example.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:31 AM   #2320
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I have an interesting scenario. My son has been offered a job in the UK, available now. Assuming he can get there (I canít see a possible way now) would be get to bypass quarantine as a) he has already had the virus and has fully recovered and b) Australia has almost eradicated the virus? I guess he would.


Rabies shows up in 10 days or so. The UK quarantined my rabies-free cats for 6 months when we moved there. Maybe Oz will be treated better since itís a commonwealth country?
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