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Old 18th April 2020, 08:13 AM   #41
marting
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
None of the antibody tests have had anything close to adequate testing to verify sensitivity and specificity. That is probably true worldwide as well but I'm only familiar with the tests being used in the US.
Here's a pretty good analysis of the Stanford study specificity issues. I have a few nits with the math but still a good look at its possible defects.

https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-rev...a-1f6382258c25
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Old 18th April 2020, 08:47 AM   #42
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Within a half hour of re-opening the Jacksonville, Florida beaches there were thousands of people there.
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Old 18th April 2020, 08:52 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Within a half hour of re-opening the Jacksonville, Florida beaches there were thousands of people there.
Just like in the movie, Jaws!

Itíll be a scene in the movie they make from it.
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Old 18th April 2020, 09:26 AM   #44
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CDC screwed up covid test, took a month to fix it.
Quote:
The failure by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to quickly produce a test kit for detecting the novel coronavirus was triggered by a glaring scientific breakdown at the CDCís central laboratory complex in Atlanta, according to scientists with knowledge of the matter and a determination by federal regulators.

The CDC facilities that assembled the kits violated sound manufacturing practices, resulting in contamination of one of the three test components used in the highly sensitive detection process, the scientists said.

The cross contamination most likely occurred because chemical mixtures were assembled into the kits within a lab space that was also handling synthetic coronavirus material. The scientists also said the proximity deviated from accepted procedures and jeopardized testing for the virus.
....
The troubled segment of the test was not critical to detecting the novel coronavirus, experts said. But after the difficulty emerged, CDC officials took more than a month to remove the unnecessary step from the kits, exacerbating nationwide delays in testing, according to an examination of federal documents and interviews with more than 30 present and former federal scientists and others familiar with the events.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...034_story.html
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:07 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
I don't know the English word for "smittetryk" (contagiousness?), the number of new infections caused by the average person infected with the virus.
There's no equivalent word, as far as I know. It's called the R0 number.
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:13 AM   #46
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Do we yet have any solid evidence that people touching surfaces and then putting their unwashed hands in their mouths has caused any cases of this disease?

I am watching the most likely carriers in the highest density part of my state go and buy plate lunches including lots of cold items, eat them without washing their hands and we still haven't had a run on coffins
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:29 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Do we yet have any solid evidence that people touching surfaces and then putting their unwashed hands in their mouths has caused any cases of this disease?

I am watching the most likely carriers in the highest density part of my state go and buy plate lunches including lots of cold items, eat them without washing their hands and we still haven't had a run on coffins
I don't think the hazard is hands in mouth. Covid isn't a digestive disorder. It's hands to nose, hands to eyes that inserts it into the respiratory system.
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:36 AM   #48
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The Stanford Study is Flawed:

Out of a sample of 3330 people in Santa Clara, they had 50 positives.

The false positive rate used was based on 2 positives out of 401 known negatives. They then (mostly) ignored the uncertainty associated with the limited sample and went on to adjust the stats for demographic differences between the people that got tested and the Santa Clara population and provided statistical ranges based on those adjustments.

But here's the fundamental problem. With the limited sample of 2 false positives out of 401 known negatives, there is a 5% chance that the true false positive rate is > 1.55%

So if the false positive rate was 1.55%, the expected number of people in 3330 if ALL are actually negative would be 52 which is more than the actual number of positives.

I presume peer review will have pointed this out already.
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:53 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Within a half hour of re-opening the Jacksonville, Florida beaches there were thousands of people there.
Any info on the effects of sea water on the virus?
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:53 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Covid isn't a digestive disorder.
I don't know about that part. it seems like the deadliest forms of it show up in people with mainly GI problems and no fever or other normal covid symptoms until way too late
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:55 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Any info on the effects of sea water on the virus?
I'd LOVE to know this as well! I asked a few times on virology shows but no answer yet
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Old 18th April 2020, 10:58 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Any info on the effects of sea water on the virus?
No.

I saw lots of pictures of the big beach crowds in Jacksonville. Nobody is in the water. Sharks.
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Old 18th April 2020, 11:12 AM   #53
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US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) says that we don't need to sanitize the food packaging after we shop...


Shopping for Food During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Information for Consumers

Originally Posted by FDA
We want to reassure consumers that there is currently no evidence of human or animal food or food packaging being associated with transmission of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. This particular coronavirus causes respiratory illness and is spread from person-to-person, unlike foodborne gastrointestinal or GI viruses, such as norovirus and hepatitis A that often make people ill through contaminated food...
https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safety...tion-consumers
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Old 18th April 2020, 11:28 AM   #54
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How much should we trust that given how wrong the CDC has been about this pandemic? You think the FDA is going to be much better? I mean, anecdotally, it sure seems to be right, but its still nerve wracking
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Old 18th April 2020, 11:31 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
I'd LOVE to know this as well! I asked a few times on virology shows but no answer yet
https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...0d75486c6772a5
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Old 18th April 2020, 11:40 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
How much should we trust that given how wrong the CDC has been about this pandemic? You think the FDA is going to be much better?
You may enjoy this blog post. It's a good read and somewhat related to your question.
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Old 18th April 2020, 11:42 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
How much should we trust that given how wrong the CDC has been about this pandemic? You think the FDA is going to be much better? I mean, anecdotally, it sure seems to be right, but its still nerve wracking
FDA: Make sure you wash your hands, but you don't need to wash the things that your hands touch.
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Old 18th April 2020, 12:20 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
However, will Russia become the new Italy (or Spain)? Etc.
Russia is already well on the way, except their death rate is so low, it shows the efficiency of Russian hospitals and that a high case load there won't matter much.

Or, in the real world, they're making up their test numbers, reporting a number of positives and ignoring thousands of people dying in ambulances that can't get near a hospital.

And if you think Russia is bad, Brazil and Africa are just kicking off.

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Do we yet have any solid evidence that people touching surfaces and then putting their unwashed hands in their mouths has caused any cases of this disease?
I don't see how it's possible to tell which route they contracted the disease from.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
I presume peer review will have pointed this out already.
Peer review? What's that?

Something that really pisses me off is the number of completely unrealistic and utterly non-peer-reviewed "studies" making the news on Covid-19.

Every one is jumped on like it's the Holy Grail. Hydroxychloroquine is a perfect example.

Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Any info on the effects of sea water on the virus?
Not this one, but there's actually an enormous amount of study has been done it.

Here's one lengthy study: https://www.karger.com/Article/Fulltext/484899

The tl;dr version is:

Salt water vastly increases the breakdown of the lipid envelope.

So fish probably won't catch it.
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Old 18th April 2020, 12:43 PM   #59
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Germany has begun a survey for antibodies, using 3,000 families selected at random. This won't be a one-off test; the participants will be tested once a month for a year. There are plans to test all residents for antibodies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/w...0_oPW_QZ0XCZG4
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Old 18th April 2020, 01:43 PM   #60
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To Mask or Not To Mask, That is the Question

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...04.06.20055624

Quote:
Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic.

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...04.02.20051177

Quote:
Speaking may be a primary mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Considering that reports of asymptomatic transmission account for 50-80% of COVID-19 cases and that saliva has peak viral loads at time of patient presentation, droplet emission while speaking could be a significant factor driving transmission and warrants further study. We used a planar beam of laser light passing through a dust-free enclosure to detect saliva droplets emitted while speaking. We found that saying the words 9Stay Healthy9 generates thousands of droplets that are otherwise invisible to the naked eye. A damp homemade cloth face mask dramatically reduced droplet excretion, with none of the spoken words causing a droplet rise above the background. Our preliminary findings have important implications for pandemic mitigation efforts.
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Old 18th April 2020, 01:55 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
There's no equivalent word, as far as I know. It's called the R0 number.

Thank you. Is that an acronym for something?


ETA: Found it!
Quote:
R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.
What Is R0?: Gauging Contagious Infections (Healthline)
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Old 18th April 2020, 02:12 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
As long as people can get or make masks easily, I don't see how it can hurt. If anything it shows you care to people you meet.
Here it's mandatory over a month. And from beginning it was well obeyed. Not so much these days, people just think it's over. Crowd immunity ? Great thing, but I'll pass as long as it's possible.
Speaking is not exactly coughing in each others faces, but not far from it.
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Old 18th April 2020, 02:53 PM   #63
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Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/p...6zd5cIzDnmuYzs

Well, there's a surprise
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Old 18th April 2020, 02:53 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Just noticed something odd about the number of new cases. It is happening in several countries, including Australia for the last 6 days. That is the number of new cases is stuck. Every day there are the same number of new cases plus or minus some noise. For example in America there have been about 30,000 new cases every day since 2 April.

I fear the lockdown is not working very well. It should be reducing this number and it is not. It is only holding it steady.
For some reason you don't seem to be taking into account the source of the new cases. For example, the plague ship, Ruby Princess is still disgorging new cases into Australia.

Tasmania had an outbreak in a hospital.

Here in South Australia, we're about to receive a flight of 400 people today, who have to go into quarantine for two weeks.

We're expecting a second flight of repatriations tomorrow.
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Old 18th April 2020, 02:56 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
I don't think the hazard is hands in mouth. Covid isn't a digestive disorder. It's hands to nose, hands to eyes that inserts it into the respiratory system.
It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it will be ignored.
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Old 18th April 2020, 03:03 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Germany has begun a survey for antibodies, using 3,000 families selected at random. This won't be a one-off test; the participants will be tested once a month for a year. There are plans to test all residents for antibodies.
Yay for the Krauts!

Real information will be bloody handy from many angles. It also highlights why fast action slowing the virus is imperative - it means health staff aren't knee-deep in corpses and ventilators, so they have time to do this kind of thing.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
To Mask or Not To Mask, That is the Question
Thankfully, and taking no chance of allowing a means of transmission to go un-checked, it seems to me that most places opening up their economies are going to insist on them.

We haven't quite got there yet in NZ, and I note supermarket workers wearing them is only about 50/50, with white people again the main source of non-maskers.

Originally Posted by dann View Post
Thank you. Is that an acronym for something?

ETA: Found it!
That is a medical/scientific term. "Contagiousness" is dead right from a language perspective.
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Old 18th April 2020, 03:39 PM   #67
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How much does a mask that lasts 30 minutes cost?
Per % efficacy?

This is the supermarket solution.
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Old 18th April 2020, 04:33 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Transmission by droplets really does seem more prevalent than transmission by aerosol. I will continue to comply with the rules here, which say you must wear a mask in public. I'm sure I'm not infected but it makes everyone else feel better, also saves me from a $1000 ticket.
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Old 18th April 2020, 04:39 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I'm sure I'm not infected
That generally requires testing to determine.
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Old 18th April 2020, 04:47 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
That generally requires testing to determine.
True, but if you are 64, you haven't been out in public for a week, and you don't have even the very faintest of symptoms, it seems like a pretty good bet.
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:08 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Any info on the effects of sea water on the virus?
It attracts 1000s of idiot that canít pronounce social-distancing, let alone practice it?
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:09 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
How much does a mask that lasts 30 minutes cost?
Per % efficacy?

This is the supermarket solution.
I'm skeptical of the value of shoppers wearing face masks at grocery store. Both Christian Drosten (the German virologist whom someone posted a video interview with in a previous thread) and the guy who conducted the Heinsberg study stated that transmission mainly occurs during "extended" exposure. Which seems to make sense; if it was possible to get infected from someone walking past you in a grocery store aisle, wouldn't it be expected that just about every grocery store clerk would be sick by now?

Where I live, masks are not required in stores (though some stores have signs requesting that patrons wear them). But I'm going to buy a few because I expect that when (or if) concerts are allowed to resume they might require attendees to wear masks. Unfortunately, the only options (for those of us who don't know how to sew) is to overpay or else order from someone who can't guarantee delivery in less than 6 weeks.
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:14 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
True, but if you are 64, you haven't been out in public for a week, and you don't have even the very faintest of symptoms, it seems like a pretty good bet.
I've been tracking this puppy since Jan.

7 weeks ago was the last time I was at a restaurant. It was a calculated risk. At the time I estimated the local number of people infected was probably, at the most, around .01% but doubling every 3 days or so. Data since then indicates it was likely more like .003%. So it was the last time. We went early and had a table that was over 15' away from any other folks, mostly because it was so early in the evening.

Had a great meal and left a particularly large tip. And that was the last time the wife and I have been out together.

5 weeks ago we discontinued our housekeeper service but paid them for the next 3 months.

Since then mostly home bound with only one of us going out briefly and infrequently for necessities at times when crowds were minimal. With DIY masks.

It's all very calculated. We are not very concerned about getting COVID-19 and it hasn't changed that much of our lives since were are retired.
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:25 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it will be ignored.
Because its not true?
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:28 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
How much does a mask that lasts 30 minutes cost?
Per % efficacy?

This is the supermarket solution.
I think the supermarket solution is just to require masks.

A paper towel and a couple of rubber bands does the trick. Just search "paper towel mask" if you can't figure it out.

Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
True, but if you are 64, you haven't been out in public for a week, and you don't have even the very faintest of symptoms, it seems like a pretty good bet.
As long as you're not one of the many people who take 14 days to show symptoms.

Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I'm skeptical of the value of shoppers wearing face masks at grocery store.
I agree that more exposure is usually necessary that isn't going to happen walking past people at a store.

However, if that one infected guy is in an aisle coughing droplets, you'd only need one to potentially kill you, so if that guy's wearing a mask it will reduce the spray of droplets by several orders of magnitude.
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:29 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Which seems to make sense; if it was possible to get infected from someone walking past you in a grocery store aisle, wouldn't it be expected that just about every grocery store clerk would be sick by now?
Oh, are you talking about the clerks who are infected but are asymptomatic?
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:35 PM   #77
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Meanwhile, the global picture is very dark.

Africa seems to have been through the disease's honeymoon/phony war stage and is starting to break out in exponential style. Sad to say, celebration of RSA's seeming success may have been a touch early, with fairly disturbing numbers out in the past couple of days.

North Africa is already going badly, and central Africa looks to be following the same path. I'd say the continent will overtake both Europe and North America pretty quickly, although maybe not in "official" cases, given the parlous state of health systems and administration throughout the continent.

Mexico & Central America are sparking nasty numbers (Hope Guatemala is the exception!) while South America seems to be headed the same way as Africa, but with very dodgy accounting thrown in.

On my count, I'd say we're about 5% of the way through Covid-19 right now.
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:37 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Oh, are you talking about the clerks who are infected but are asymptomatic?
I'm talking about clerks being infected, period. Do you have data on the number of asymptomatic infected grocery store clerks?
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Old 18th April 2020, 05:59 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
I'm talking about clerks being infected, period. Do you have data on the number of asymptomatic infected grocery store clerks?
Yes.
Google is your friend.
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Old 18th April 2020, 06:11 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
I don't think the hazard is hands in mouth. Covid isn't a digestive disorder. It's hands to nose, hands to eyes that inserts it into the respiratory system.
This pisses me off and we on this board especially should not be repeating this unsubstantiated assertion.

How do you know that? And why are you passing it on because you heard it somewhere? Sorry to pick on you. I could be picking on lots of people, especially the public health which should have been a reliable source but they haven't been.

WHO: VIRUSES IN FOOD: SCIENTIFIC ADVICE TO SUPPORT RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES
Quote:
Table 1. Viruses that are, or have the potential to be, transmitted via food and their site of infection in the human body.
Site of Infection Virus
Neural tissue and nervous system
Enterovirus, Nipah virus, Poliovirus*, Parechovirus*, Tick-borne encephalitis virus*
Respiratory system
HPAI-H5N1, SARS-CoV
Liver
HAV, HEV
Intestinal system
NoV, HRV, Sapovirus, Astrovirus, Adenovirus, Aichi virus
Note: Enteric viruses can also be airborne, bloodborne (including vector-borne) or sexually transmitted.
* While these viruses have the potential to be transmitted via food they were not considered further by the
meeting. ...

The potential for foodborne transmission is a concern with every new emerging infection, and ruling out such concerns is often difficult. Although initially considered to be unlikely, faecaloral spread in particular conditions has been proven for the primarily respiratory pathogens Nipah virus, HPAI virus and SARS-CoV. Infectious avian influenza virus has been cultured from frozen exported meat, raising questions about the possible dissemination of such viruses via the food chain. Although this mode of spread is considered to be rare, the potential consequences of such spread dictated that such viruses be considered by the meeting.
I'll try to find this reference:
Quote:
Boone, S.A. & Gerba, C.P. 2007. Significance of fomites in the spread of respiratory and enteric viral disease. Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 73(6): 1687–1696.
Contaminate the food (a fomite), put it on your mouth and in the case some especially contagious respiratory viruses they can find there way into the upper airway mucosa the same way they can from your hands to your mouth. The idea it needs to go in the eye or nose is not logical let alone tested and demonstrated.

Fauci, Dr Brix and other public health officials are spreading the unsupported assertion we don't need to worry about restaurant food, just the outer packaging.
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Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 18th April 2020 at 08:07 PM.
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