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Old 20th April 2020, 08:47 AM   #201
William Parcher
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Cordero is 41 years old.
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Old 20th April 2020, 09:37 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Are you in north Oahu?
East, I'm in the pandemic "hotspot"
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:10 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
What about on a windy day? Would a person standing still in a 9 mph wind also spread contamination downwind for 30 feet?
A person standing still won’t be breathing as deep/fast/hard as someone exercising and won’t expel as many viral particles.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:25 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
East, I'm in the pandemic "hotspot"
Don’t take this as a challenge; it is an honest question. The numbers I’ve seen online at the NY Times, etc. seem to indicate that Hawaii is actually doing well in reducing “r”, numbers of new cases, and deaths compared to many other states. Of course rates of testing influence the first two, but deaths is a fairly hard number. What sources do you have that indicate Hawaii’s is actually a disastrous response? Are you referring specifically to Oahu?

Last edited by Giordano; 20th April 2020 at 10:26 AM.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:34 AM   #205
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
Don’t take this as a challenge; it is an honest question. The numbers I’ve seen online at the NY Times, etc. seem to indicate that Hawaii is actually doing well in reducing “r”, numbers of new cases, and deaths compared to many other states. Of course rates of testing influence the first two, but deaths is a fairly hard number. What sources do you have that indicate Hawaii’s is actually a disastrous response? Are you referring specifically to Oahu?
That's why I put it in quotes. There was another thread here that talked about, despite how inept our governor has been, how many lies our Department of health has told and despite how far they have tried to bury a real doctor and health specialist, our version of Fauci, lieutenant Governor Josh green, we have actually done very well (so far).

Still under 1000 confirmed cases despite three generations of morbidly obese families living under one small roof, egregious violations of common sense and a population that believes in neither germs, nor science nor vaccines. And despite hospital directors refusing to allow medical workers to wear PPE
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:35 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
There are so many unknowns that it is a little difficult to come to hard and fast conclusions. ....

I used presymptomatic instead of asymptomatic as a probablility as the World Health Organisation claims that,
"There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission."
They do not discount the possibility, but so far they have not found evidence that it has occurred. Which is interesting.
I've been arguing for the "we don't know" POV and how important it is to be precise. But the way one words things implies either there might be but we aren't sure, or, we have no evidence there are.

The WHO is a tad pedantic about asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic transmission.

Quote:
In a small number of case reports and studies, pre-symptomatic transmission has been documented through contact tracing efforts and enhanced investigation of clusters of confirmed cases.

Further down, when you read the whole paragraph, it seems to lean in the probably but no proof direction.
Quote:
There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:35 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
A person standing still won’t be breathing as deep/fast/hard as someone exercising and won’t expel as many viral particles.
This I haven't seen anywhere. Amoung and spectrum of particle size for: just being still, breathing heavily, talking, screaming, singing, sneezing, coughing.
Talking may even differ between languages I guess.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:41 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
The other way to look at it is that it's something I heard from a healthcare official. Looking in to it revealed nothing that I could substantiate, but since I am not a medical professional I didn't want to dismiss out of hand something that a medical professional had said just because I, as a layman, couldn't substantiate it through googling.

So instead, when it was relevant to the subject that was being discussed, I posted it along with the caveat that I was not vouching for its veracity - safe in the knowledge that I was posting to a board which is generally populated with sceptical and intelligent people who don't accept things as true just because they have heard someone random on the internet say it, and some of whom have the medical knowledge that I'm missing and will therefore be able to better evaluate the veracity or otherwise of the claim.

As you have done.
A link might have been useful so it was clear it wasn't word of mouth which could have started anywhere.

What health care worker? I call it the ED grapevine when bad information I've had to follow up on came from some health care worker in the ED who told the EMS worker the patient had X contagious disease diagnosis.

More often than not it was bad information. IOW, health care workers are some of the worst for passing on unsupported medical information.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old 20th April 2020, 10:54 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I think we are still chit-chatting because your citations address whether skin can be contaminated and transmit virus, certainly unquestionable, and resident skin microbiomes, invasive organisms, and immune responses. All interesting. Especially the limited life span of influenza on skin and formites.
Note, the study only refers to one strain. They can differ considerably.

Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
I will need to look at that article in more detail using my proxy access to get past the paywall. Thanks for the links. But my original question of survival of viruses in general on skin vs environmental surfaces remains open. Fine. I did not invoke the possibility of an immune response so much as an inherent anti-viral chemical, etc.

I understand the concern about not passing on unsupported speculation that might place people at risk. I fail to see how speculation about anti-microbials on skin fits in that category. Any more than speculation about the effect of sunlight. I clearly indicated that I didn’t know. There is much yet to be worked out and thinking about possibilities to be tested is legit. I believe I clearly indicated in my posts that even if true it wasn’t sufficient to prevent covid-19 transmission. I never suggested people should avoid washing their hands. BTW I was not responding to Squeegee’s post but to your abrupt dismissal of it.

But again I thank you for the citations.
Remember this started with 'gloves might spread contaminants more easily than bare hands.' Without establishing if this was even true, next came speculation as to why that might be true.

There is zero evidence it is true. One needs to establish that before going off on hypotheses as to why that might be true.


I'm sorry for being so abrupt, but passing on unsupported stuff we heard is a HUGE part of the problem of false medical beliefs. Next that would go to people thinking it was a valid claim. It's not. Look at the fingerprints your hands leave behind. Those are skin oils which carry all sorts of microorganisms with them. Synthetic gloves don't leave the same residues. It makes no physiological sense gloves transfer material more easily than hands.

I consider both of you excellent contributors to these and other discussions on this board. So don't take me in the wrong way. I'm just saying we should be careful we aren't contributing to the grapevine of medical misinformation.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old 20th April 2020, 10:59 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
A link might have been useful so it was clear it wasn't word of mouth which could have started anywhere.
I can't link to something that I heard on the radio that someone else was listening to in the background. I can tell you that it was a doctor, who had been called on to the programme as an expert, and that it was on Radio 4 which has a generally good reputation for factual reporting.

I didn't pay that much attention because a) I wasn't interested in listening to it, b) I was doing something else, and c) I don't wear gloves out and I'm not planning on doing so so it wasn't relevant to me.

Perhaps I should have been clearer that when I said "I have seen advice" I meant "from a credible authority figure", rather than "from some rando called Fred". But I generally post under the hopeful assumption that I've been posting here long enough that most people will not think me too gullible or too much of a moron.
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Old 20th April 2020, 11:59 AM   #211
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Thanks.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
This article does a great job of explaining the value of serologic tests. It also is one of the rare pieces that describes the problem with the Stanford study. It's a really good article. The guy understands statistics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/faste...004102410.html
It may not be screamingly obvious, but Inan Dogan makes it clear that the planned serological testing in NY will provide worthwhile insights into how widespread covid-19 has become, even if the actual tests have similar shortcomings to the one used in Santa Clara County.

As I noted in an earlier post, it seems general understanding of BayesWP is rather limited.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:04 PM   #212
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Runners are also exhaling deeply and strongly.

While there is dilution from distance, recent research has show normal breathing produces some droplets and aerosols. Talking produces about 10x more. And loud talking 100x more. Seems pretty obvious that people singing and runners would produce even more. So it's probably good advice to keep a good distance outside from joggers and people shouting.

Baseball isn't going to be the same for a while.
Baseball players (and umpires) wore masks in 1918.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:06 PM   #213
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
In another thread, someone is claiming that that has been no transmission between people in an outdoor setting.
I'm awaiting the poster to cite some sources - but it is an intriguing claim.
I'd say that kind of information is impossible to get.

When the virus is spreading fast, people will have no idea where they got it, and while the chances of catching it outside are vastly smaller than indoors, I don't see why it would be impossible.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:12 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I can't link to something that I heard on the radio that someone else was listening to in the background. I can tell you that it was a doctor, who had been called on to the programme as an expert, and that it was on Radio 4 which has a generally good reputation for factual reporting.

I didn't pay that much attention because a) I wasn't interested in listening to it, b) I was doing something else, and c) I don't wear gloves out and I'm not planning on doing so so it wasn't relevant to me.

Perhaps I should have been clearer that when I said "I have seen advice" I meant "from a credible authority figure", rather than "from some rando called Fred". But I generally post under the hopeful assumption that I've been posting here long enough that most people will not think me too gullible or too much of a moron.
I think you've explained your post well enough. It's fine.

But on that note, which radio programs do you usually listen to? I'd still like to look into it. I tried to find anything online about it but failed.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:13 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
That's why I put it in quotes. There was another thread here that talked about, despite how inept our governor has been, how many lies our Department of health has told and despite how far they have tried to bury a real doctor and health specialist, our version of Fauci, lieutenant Governor Josh green, we have actually done very well (so far).
I think your numbers are going to hold up - a 1% increase in new cases yesterday and no sign of the rocket-powered infection rates elsewhere in USA.

And it's not population density, because Hawaii ranks 13th in USA for density and Honolulu at 5700 people/sqm isn't that far off half of Boston's, which isn't going so well.

There's something else in play. Pity nobody has any idea what it is. If NY and Boston could share your rates of infection, doctors would be going on holiday instead of calling for refrigerated trucks.
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:45 PM   #216
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Dermatologists seem to have identified a skin condition in younger people who are infected. "Covid Toes".

https://mobile.twitter.com/dwahezi/s...04396470804481

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covi...135948618.html
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Old 20th April 2020, 12:51 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
It may not be screamingly obvious, but Inan Dogan makes it clear that the planned serological testing in NY will provide worthwhile insights into how widespread covid-19 has become, even if the actual tests have similar shortcomings to the one used in Santa Clara County.

As I noted in an earlier post, it seems general understanding of BayesWP is rather limited.
What disturbs me about the Stanford study is just how bad the statistics is. There's a 5% chance based on their own serologic test false positive numbers that they would have gotten similar results if every single one of the 3,330 people tested there actually had no antibody response. It's bizarre.

That said, yes, the NY study should be much more productive simply because they have a higher known PCR positive population percentage. The serological test results will be more meaningful.
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:03 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Dermatologists seem to have identified a skin condition in younger people who are infected. "Covid Toes".

https://mobile.twitter.com/dwahezi/s...04396470804481

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covi...135948618.html
More Panic Porn?
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:28 PM   #219
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Preliminary results announced for LA Study using same serologic test as the Standford Santa Clara study. 863 people tested in La County, presumably randomly selected.

4.1% tested positive, 6% of men, 2% of women. That's about 320,000 LA residents and 40 times larger than confirmed cases.

Because of the larger percentage that tested positive, issues of false positive tests are minimal.

Assuming that those infected are immune, which is probable but not certain, it's probable that the overall population death rate would be < .1% and possibly significantly less and that assumes the disease was allowed to run its course w/o any social distancing.

Yet we have the cluster cases where large percentages became symptomatic with a fairly high death rate. How to explain?

Could it be the result of how much virus people were exposed to initially? Perhaps low levels produce a reaction but not observable disease. If that is so and if they do confer immunity then things are looking up big time with worst case numbers well below the 1919 flu.
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:28 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
More Panic Porn?
You think it's fake ?
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:36 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Preliminary results announced for LA Study using same serologic test as the Standford Santa Clara study. 863 people tested in La County, presumably randomly selected.

4.1% tested positive, 6% of men, 2% of women. That's about 320,000 LA residents and 40 times larger than confirmed cases.

Because of the larger percentage that tested positive, issues of false positive tests are minimal.

Assuming that those infected are immune, which is probable but not certain, it's probable that the overall population death rate would be < .1% and possibly significantly less and that assumes the disease was allowed to run its course w/o any social distancing.

Yet we have the cluster cases where large percentages became symptomatic with a fairly high death rate. How to explain?

Could it be the result of how much virus people were exposed to initially? Perhaps low levels produce a reaction but not observable disease. If that is so and if they do confer immunity then things are looking up big time with worst case numbers well below the 1919 flu.
The first thing that stands out is the HUGE difference between the percentages of men and women.

ETA:
Would the IFR be dependent on how "infected" is defined? Can a person take in enough virus particles to develop antibodies without being "infected"? There was one year that I shared an office with a guy who insisted on coming to work despite having influenza (informing me that he could keep his temperature below 102 if he took Tylenol every 4 hours). I did not get influenza even though I did not get a flu shot that year. However, within a few weeks about a third of the staff had influenza. Was I saved by luck? By having some level of immunity built up from past exposures to influenza? By picking up a small amount of the virus, possibly at the same time he was exposed and developing sufficient antibodies to protect myself? So might I have picked up some amount of virus from him and been "infected" even though the virus never had much success in replicating inside of me? Or did I have an asymptomatic infection?
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:45 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The first thing that stands out is the HUGE difference between the percentages of men and women.
35 positive persons. If something is huge, it's statistical error.
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Old 20th April 2020, 01:55 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
35 positive persons. If something is huge, it's statistical error.
Quite possible. I wouldn't put much weight on the men/women differences. And sampling error between binaries pushes them both further apart.
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:03 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The first thing that stands out is the HUGE difference between the percentages of men and women.

ETA:
Would the IFR be dependent on how "infected" is defined? Can a person take in enough virus particles to develop antibodies without being "infected"? There was one year that I shared an office with a guy who insisted on coming to work despite having influenza (informing me that he could keep his temperature below 102 if he took Tylenol every 4 hours). I did not get influenza even though I did not get a flu shot that year. However, within a few weeks about a third of the staff had influenza. Was I saved by luck? By having some level of immunity built up from past exposures to influenza? By picking up a small amount of the virus, possibly at the same time he was exposed and developing sufficient antibodies to protect myself? So might I have picked up some amount of virus from him and been "infected" even though the virus never had much success in replicating inside of me? Or did I have an asymptomatic infection?
umm... stay at home Moms didn't get as exposed? Umm,.. was that the study that was random for age groups, but targeted at Hispanics? Or is that an upcoming study?
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:03 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
You think it's fake ?
The yahoo article is a whole lotta' nothin'.

Pernio is happening more.

Quote:
Part of the odd nature of the current “mini-epidemic” of pernio among kids, according to Paller, is the timing. “Pernio shows up for those of us who live in Northern climates in January, February, in the middle of winter,” says Paller. “It's a cold-induced phenomenon where the blood vessels that are in these areas ... like the toes and fingers, will tend to have a spasm of these very peripheral vessels.”
And now speculation about it being related to COVID-19.

Quote:
It’s a large part of the reason why American dermatologists are suspecting a potential link between the sudden rise in the condition amid COVID-19. “These are often otherwise perfectly healthy kids with very mild symptoms — and frankly, because it’s hard to get some these tests still, we don’t know for sure that they have COVID-19,” says Paller. “So I think we're going to learn a lot more in the next week or two or month.”
Which at this point is still just speculation.

Watch this space.
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:09 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Preliminary results announced for LA Study using same serologic test as the Standford Santa Clara study. 863 people tested in La County, presumably randomly selected.

4.1% tested positive, 6% of men, 2% of women. That's about 320,000 LA residents and 40 times larger than confirmed cases.

Because of the larger percentage that tested positive, issues of false positive tests are minimal.

Assuming that those infected are immune, which is probable but not certain, it's probable that the overall population death rate would be < .1% and possibly significantly less and that assumes the disease was allowed to run its course w/o any social distancing.

Yet we have the cluster cases where large percentages became symptomatic with a fairly high death rate. How to explain?

Could it be the result of how much virus people were exposed to initially? Perhaps low levels produce a reaction but not observable disease. If that is so and if they do confer immunity then things are looking up big time with worst case numbers well below the 1919 flu.
Link?

Re: Clusters- There would also be clusters of where in tons of people got anti-bodies but were asymptomatic. They are called clusters, no explanation necessary. But then, there may be confounders that ought to be looked for. Ventilation is my poet peeve of the day.
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:15 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Preliminary results announced for LA Study using same serologic test as the Standford Santa Clara study. 863 people tested in La County, presumably randomly selected.

4.1% tested positive, 6% of men, 2% of women. That's about 320,000 LA residents and 40 times larger than confirmed cases.
The press release stated 28 to 55 times as many people as were confirmed.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phc....cfm?prid=2328

If that was true for New York City, it would mean that at least half, and possibly all, of the residents there have been infected.

ETA:
If the study found that about 4 percent were infected, that means the US is 1/15 of the way to herd immunity. With over 40,000 deaths already, that means about 600,000 would have died without mitigation measures (actually more, because California is farther along in the epidemic than states in the interior).
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:22 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Preliminary results announced for LA Study using same serologic test as the Standford Santa Clara study. 863 people tested in La County, presumably randomly selected.

4.1% tested positive, 6% of men, 2% of women. That's about 320,000 LA residents and 40 times larger than confirmed cases.
I think the beaches can hold 320,000 easily. If not the overflow can go to Disneyland.

But other than: that: See, I told you so, I told you so, I told you so,, neener neener, way back on page one. And I got called a denialist and a Trumpiest. You Pandemic Pornists know who you are. You can apologize here or in FC.

Though I must admit, I was thinking 3-10 times as many asymptomatic, not 40. In the future pandemic panics, I'll use 40.
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:31 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The press release stated 28 to 55 times as many people as were confirmed.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phc....cfm?prid=2328

If that was true for New York City, it would mean that at least half, and possibly all, of the residents there have been infected.
My post was from the press conference live. They had more detail and some good questions as well. There should be a youtube of the press conference soon. They usually post it right after the press conference after the Spanish rendition.
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Old 20th April 2020, 02:43 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Though I must admit, I was thinking 3-10 times as many asymptomatic, not 40. In the future pandemic panics, I'll use 40.
The study didn't say that 40 times as many were asymptomatic, just that 40 times as many were infected as had tested positive. Given that at least some parts of California didn't test people unless their symptoms were sufficient to require hospitalization, the number of symptomatic people was undoubtedly several times the number of the number of confirmed cases.
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:01 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
ETA:
If the study found that about 4 percent were infected, that means the US is 1/15 of the way to herd immunity. With over 40,000 deaths already, that means about 600,000 would have died without mitigation measures (actually more, because California is farther along in the epidemic than states in the interior).
No. You have it backwards. It was a random selection of LA County residents. Death count to date in LA County is 600 and the case count is also much lower.

What it suggests is that NY should have a much larger (somewhere around half) percentage of their population infected which seems extremely unlikely.

More likely there is something very strange going on. Possibly a more virulent strain in NY or some sort of cross responding antibody in the LA area from some other virus. Or the virus that's going around on the West Coast is more attenuated. Most of the East Coast virus came in from Europe, especially Italy.

Something's different. Question is what.
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:05 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I've been arguing for the "we don't know" POV and how important it is to be precise. But the way one words things implies either there might be but we aren't sure, or, we have no evidence there are.

The WHO is a tad pedantic about asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic transmission.

Further down, when you read the whole paragraph, it seems to lean in the probably but no proof direction.
Yes, I did actually read the entire article I cited, thus my comment,
“ They do not discount the possibility, but so far they have not found evidence that it has occurred. ”
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:08 PM   #233
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LA County, CA:

55 times as many tested positive than recognized sounds crazy but they aren't saying 55% of the population. It's more like 4% and when you look at it that way the numbers appear more valid.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coro...ted-cases.html
Quote:
USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:09 PM   #234
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The study didn't say that 40 times as many were asymptomatic, just that 40 times as many were infected as had tested positive. Given that at least some parts of California didn't test people unless their symptoms were sufficient to require hospitalization, the number of symptomatic people was undoubtedly several times the number of the number of confirmed cases.
That is why I wanted a link to the study. But thy picked people at random. 862 at random only leaves a miniscule chance that someone had actually tested positive for the disease. 862, asymptomatic 5%; vs symptomatic, ..012%? Not enough to skew the results.

Anyway, at the rate of 40 A-symptomatic cases per symptomatic (possibly even higher) that's 96% A-s. Of the 4%, most thought it was a cold or allergy. A few thought it was the flu. A scant amount actually seek treatment. a very few get hospitalized. Some ICU, some die.Worse than the flu, but not magnitudes.

Without re-doing my math, L A county had 12,000 confirmed symptomatic cases, vs 300,000 estimated asymptomatic. That's 25 Asymptomatic cases per symptomatic, which might mean the sniffles.
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:28 PM   #235
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Yes, I did actually read the entire article I cited, thus my comment,
They do not discount the possibility, but so far they have not found evidence that it has occurred. ”
To me that differs from it might be occurring but so far they have not found laboratory evidence that it has occurred.

Just my POV.

We are reading this differently:
Quote:
This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.
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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old 20th April 2020, 03:40 PM   #236
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
To me that differs from it might be occurring but so far they have not found laboratory evidence that it has occurred.

Just my POV.

We are reading this differently:
No wonder you get mad on these threads if you wish to split hairs in such a manner.
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Old 20th April 2020, 03:50 PM   #237
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
No wonder you get mad on these threads if you wish to split hairs in such a manner.
It makes a difference, not splitting hairs, but whatever.

BTW, this is not something I ever got mad about.
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Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.

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Old 20th April 2020, 04:11 PM   #238
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The first thing that stands out is the HUGE difference between the percentages of men and women...
It might be testicles.

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...to-coronavirus


PS. I couldn't click on the story without a subscription.
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Old 20th April 2020, 04:19 PM   #239
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
It might be testicles.
Even more Panic Porn.
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Old 20th April 2020, 06:55 PM   #240
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The territory anomaly possibly explained in part by a European strain.
Not behind paywall:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12326324
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