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Old 20th April 2020, 07:09 PM   #241
marting
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The territory anomaly possibly explained in part by a European strain.
Not behind paywall:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12326324
Wow! That's really interesting and could explain a big part of the difference between the US West Coast and East Coast.
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Old 20th April 2020, 08:14 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The territory anomaly possibly explained in part by a European strain.
Not behind paywall:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12326324
Well, blow me down with a feather.

Marting and I were discussing that very possibility a week ago and were told this idea was nonsense:

Originally Posted by Me
Yeah, that's been at the back of mind all along the territory issue - we know there are two strains. Are they being spread in parallel? One group spread by Chinese from Wuhan that isn't so deadly, and another from the skifields, which is.

That would certainly go with the earlier, but less-virulent, infections in Japan, Hawaii, California, Canada, Aussie & NZ.
So, in fact, it looks like we were bang on the money.

Again!

From the article:

Quote:
This finding could shed light on differences in regional mortality.
I claim vindication!

(and bloody good job we shut the Yanks out just in time - I'd be interested to know where our by-far deadliest cluster, in Bluff, came from)
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Old 20th April 2020, 08:21 PM   #243
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What it's like being a paramedic in New York right now.

'I've never seen a person alive with a number like that': Two days with New York paramedics
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-2...id-19/12139676

Never seen a flu season like this. Multiple deaths probably not recorded as Covid-19.
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Old 20th April 2020, 08:29 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Wow! That's really interesting and could explain a big part of the difference between the US West Coast and East Coast.
Why two distinct strains at the same time? What made on mutate? Which one?
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Old 20th April 2020, 08:41 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Wow! That's really interesting and could explain a big part of the difference between the US West Coast and East Coast.
I think this is a bad omen for a vaccine. A vaccine could be developed for one strain, but if the virus can mutate the vaccine may cease to be effective. Worse it might even be able to infect people who have had the virus.

The only good news is that this is one possibility. It might have several strains but all can be wiped out if you have had any one of them. Like if you have had cowpox you could not get smallpox.
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Old 20th April 2020, 08:46 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Why two distinct strains at the same time? What made on mutate? Which one?
That's pretty of the reason viruses are so successful. They use RNA for their genetic material rather than DNA, like us, which self repairs a lot of errors. That means viruses are constantly 'evolving'. The are unimaginable numbers of them out there.
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Old 20th April 2020, 09:29 PM   #247
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Not sure if this has been discussed in this thread, but I recently came across this:

From: https://www.businessinsider.com/snif...-mirror-2020-4
Specially trained medical detection dogs could be the solution to the crisis in the lack of testing that many countries are facing during the coronavirus pandemic....The dogs are capable of sniff testing 750 people an hour...It will take several weeks of experimentation before it will be known if dogs are able to identify the coronavirus.

First of all, i got to wonder... who actually thought of this idea? I mean, they use dogs to detect other diseases, so this should be a natural progression... but still, its a brilliant idea.

Secondly... does anyone else think this could be a real game-changer (assuming it actually works)? I am sure there will be plenty of errors, and it won't replace lab testing. But a small team of dogs could probably 'clear' the residents of a small city in a matter of weeks. It won't eradicate the disease, but it would probably give enough security to allow the economy to be opened back up. The question then becomes how to distribute detection dogs for the best effect.
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Old 20th April 2020, 09:38 PM   #248
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Johns Hopkins list of serological tests under USA EUA as well as tests developed outside the USA

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....-COVID-19.html
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:06 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Not sure if this has been discussed in this thread, but I recently came across this:

From: https://www.businessinsider.com/snif...-mirror-2020-4
Specially trained medical detection dogs could be the solution to the crisis in the lack of testing that many countries are facing during the coronavirus pandemic....The dogs are capable of sniff testing 750 people an hour...It will take several weeks of experimentation before it will be known if dogs are able to identify the coronavirus.

First of all, i got to wonder... who actually thought of this idea? I mean, they use dogs to detect other diseases, so this should be a natural progression... but still, its a brilliant idea.

Secondly... does anyone else think this could be a real game-changer (assuming it actually works)? I am sure there will be plenty of errors, and it won't replace lab testing. But a small team of dogs could probably 'clear' the residents of a small city in a matter of weeks. It won't eradicate the disease, but it would probably give enough security to allow the economy to be opened back up. The question then becomes how to distribute detection dogs for the best effect.
That's brilliant if they can make that work! Dogs could be deployed at airports and with first responders. I would guess the idea came from someone with a sniffer dog. They would know what their dogs can do.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:36 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Why two distinct strains at the same time? What made on mutate? Which one?
This post of mine got lost when all the threads were closed.

In short, it was known early on that there were two strains in the wild : L and S. One is more virulent than the other. You target the virulent strain that spreads easily and is more deadly for your vaccine.
Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
<snip>
This analysis seems to indicate that, for instance, COVID-19 entered the USA on both coasts from different sources simultaneously- but the strain in the US the same on either coast.

Current consensus there may be up to eight strains. The initial strain, S, was supplanted by L, and it is the latter that seems to be more readily transmitted - that is why it is so widespread.
There does not seem to be a more virulent strain that is affecting a population more than a less virulent strain - example bing the relative homogeneous nature of the strain affecting the us.

The good news is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has a relatively slow mutation rate and most experts seem to agree that a single vaccine is the more likely solution to halting COVID-19 and that, unlike flu, it is unlikely that a new and different vaccine will be needed annually.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:43 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
That's brilliant if they can make that work! Dogs could be deployed at airports and with first responders. I would guess the idea came from someone with a sniffer dog. They would know what their dogs can do.
I don't think you could train that many dogs.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:47 PM   #252
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The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Why two distinct strains at the same time? What made on mutate? Which one?

I read an article about SARS-CoV-2 strains, and it stated that two areas on the RNA have been identified that pretty much mutates at every infection, so that every infected person has his/her own strain. But the mutation did not seem to result in any seriously altered proteins, which is why they are not regarded as actual “strains”. At the time, two strains had been identified, with more than a hundred variations within the strains, but even these two strains were so similar that it could be argued that they were just one strain.

As far as I gather, currently eight strains have been identified.
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Old 20th April 2020, 10:59 PM   #253
Ulf Nereng
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I don't think you could train that many dogs.
Maybe, maybe not. The police and military already have dogs trained to sniff out things of interest, like narcotics and landmines. I think the dogs can be trained to sniff more than one thing. It would take time to train them properly, though.
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Old 20th April 2020, 11:00 PM   #254
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Until bedford weighs in Ill figure its just more of the same early multiple strain papers

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
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Old 20th April 2020, 11:02 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Well, blow me down with a feather.

Marting and I were discussing that very possibility a week ago and were told this idea was nonsense:



So, in fact, it looks like we were bang on the money.

Again!

From the article:



I claim vindication!

(and bloody good job we shut the Yanks out just in time - I'd be interested to know where our by-far deadliest cluster, in Bluff, came from)
I thought from an Air NZ steward. Lets check his itinerary for the week prior..
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Old 20th April 2020, 11:05 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
That's brilliant if they can make that work! Dogs could be deployed at airports and with first responders. I would guess the idea came from someone with a sniffer dog. They would know what their dogs can do.
Actually, I have to disagree with that last statement.
Owners and even professional trainers are going to be biased as to the accuracy of their doggies.

There is a great deal of contention on the accuracy of sniffer dogs.
Upwards of claims that 75% of the time drugs aren't found after a drug sniffing police dog has identified a person as suspect. I will hand-wave that that number is quite liquid as some articles (with agendas) seem to say that 75% of the time illegal drugs are not found. They may be quibbling that an illegal amount is not found 75% of the time.
Their accuracy is nothing like you see on reality TV such as Border Patrol or whatever.

I remain espectially sceptical regarding disease detection for the moment.
Here's a short rundown from Science Based Medicine site on the subject of disease detection dogs.
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Old 20th April 2020, 11:23 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Until bedford weighs in Ill figure its just more of the same early multiple strain papers

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
My post above, was in direct response to that link in the other scienc thread.
Try displaying it by clade - the whole thing becomes much more homogenous.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=clade_membership
You will see fewer mutuations. Also, the article I linked to earlier explains that the variances you think you're seeing are so small that they do not represent a new strain, but merely a subtype. The upshot being that these subtypes are so similar to their origin type that they can't/aren't considered to be separate strains - the visual looks quite alarming otherwise.
They have found that SARS-CoV-2 mutates about every 15 days, again, only quite slightly and (relative to others) slowly.

Which is good news for vaccine development.

At the moment (and I'm sure this has changed too) only 8 distict strains. Here's an article.
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Old 21st April 2020, 12:06 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The territory anomaly possibly explained in part by a European strain.
Not behind paywall:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12326324
I'd be inclined to wait for a larger study before coming to any groundbreaking conclusions.

From the article,
"Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells."

That's a very small sample size.
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Old 21st April 2020, 12:06 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Wow! That's really interesting and could explain a big part of the difference between the US West Coast and East Coast.
From the article:

"Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations into account to avoid potential pitfalls," they said."

Professor Sarah Gilbert of Oxford University leading the race to develop a vaccine said on Saturday, that their vaccine is quite capable of dealing with all the current mutations of COVID19, and seemingly is not of the same opinion as to their veracity. She says the mutations are minor and not important. She also said that a vaccine will give better immunity than natural infection, the latter perhaps only providing protection for a few months, the former in terms of years. Clinical human trials this week are taking place, and the research group are so confident that their vaccine will be effective and safe, they are commissioning a million doses up front prior to official approval, to get it ready by September. Normally the process would take up to five years, apparently, so you can see the monumental effort that is being carried out at the moment over here.
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Old 21st April 2020, 12:07 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
That's brilliant if they can make that work! Dogs could be deployed at airports and with first responders. I would guess the idea came from someone with a sniffer dog. They would know what their dogs can do.
We had a dog case in Hong Kong, from which the dog subsequently died after testing weakly positive, and later negative.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/18/world...irus-12416871/

Until that is confirmed, probably not a great idea to have your sniffer dogs potentially sniffing the virus and getting sick.
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Old 21st April 2020, 02:23 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
But on that note, which radio programs do you usually listen to?
I don't at all. The radio is sometimes on in the background in my house, being listened to by someone else while I do something else. I have no idea of the programme. The best I can say is that it was during the daytime and on Radio 4.
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Old 21st April 2020, 02:58 AM   #262
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

Quote:
Deaths in England and Wales have risen sharply above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high.

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - around 10,000 more than is normal at this time of year.

More than 6,200 were linked to coronavirus, a sixth of which were outside of hospital.

But deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis, said they were trying to understand what had been happening with this increase in non-coronavirus deaths.

He said it could be that people with other illnesses were avoiding going to hospital treatment - visits to A&E have halved since the pandemic started.

But he added it could "take years to work out".
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Old 21st April 2020, 04:01 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
This I haven't seen anywhere. Amoung and spectrum of particle size for: just being still, breathing heavily, talking, screaming, singing, sneezing, coughing.
Talking may even differ between languages I guess.
Just the volume of air you expel exercising per time unit is vastly more than when resting.
I admit, since it made sense, I took marting’s word for it.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
...While there is dilution from distance, recent research has show normal breathing produces some droplets and aerosols. Talking produces about 10x more. And loud talking 100x more. Seems pretty obvious that people singing and runners would produce even more.
...
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Old 21st April 2020, 05:55 AM   #264
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Speed of exhalation could be more important than volume?
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Old 21st April 2020, 05:56 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Until that is confirmed, probably not a great idea to have your sniffer dogs potentially sniffing the virus and getting sick.
Putting aside that your sniffer dog could become infected and die; these sniffer dogs could become spreaders.
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Old 21st April 2020, 06:13 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Putting aside that your sniffer dog could become infected and die; these sniffer dogs could become spreaders.
The ACE2 receptor in the dog has a low homology to that of human, so not likely. Cats are more similar though.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...04.16.045302v1
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Old 21st April 2020, 06:25 AM   #267
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I think the results from the various US serological tests - past, present, and future - should be viewed cautiously and skeptically. And not just from the perspective of who was tested (and why) and who was not.

"There Are Not Enough COVID-19 Tests. There Are Also Too Many COVID-19 Tests." (link) is an article, today, on the FiveThirtyEight site. Some snippets:

"The tests for COVID-19 fall into two basic categories: direct tests, which look for the presence of the virus in a patient, and indirect tests, which look for antibodies that show a patient’s immune system has encountered the virus at some point. We’ll need both to safely emerge from the confines of social isolation [...]. The direct tests are critical for finding infected people, tracing who they have been in contact with and isolating them before they can pass the virus to others. The indirect (or “serological”) tests, administered across broad swaths of the population, can help public health experts understand how the virus spreads and how people build immunity to it."

Focus on the latter, the serological tests.

"[Serological tests] can turn up a false negative if you take them too soon, without giving your body enough time to build up antibodies. But they’re the tool epidemiologists need in order to get a better handle on how many Americans are actually contracting this virus, and who has and hasn’t built up some level of immunity."

"few of these tests — whether serological or diagnostic — have been checked against each other to make sure there aren’t big differences in the results they each turn up."

There's a whole lot more about the processes for validating tests, and the fact that rather a lot of (unvalidated) tests have turned out to be useless.
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Old 21st April 2020, 07:18 AM   #268
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one function of nsp14

Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
That's pretty of the reason viruses are so successful. They use RNA for their genetic material rather than DNA, like us, which self repairs a lot of errors. That means viruses are constantly 'evolving'. The are unimaginable numbers of them out there.
Within the last few years, an exonuclease enzyme that improves fidelity of RNA replication has been found in at least some coronaviruses. It resides on a protein called nsp14, along with one other activity.
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Old 21st April 2020, 11:13 AM   #269
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Some people may find this source interesting. It gives European deaths. There is a sharp peak for European deaths which is now falling, it is probably attributable to Covid-19. The magnitude is similar to the deaths in the winter of 16/17. The pattern is surprisingly similar across all the countries which data is available for.
https://www.euromomo.eu

ETA
These are the current England death stats
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ing10april2020

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Old 21st April 2020, 11:32 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Some people may find this source interesting. It gives European deaths. There is a sharp peak for European deaths which is now falling, it is probably attributable to Covid-19. The magnitude is similar to the deaths in the winter of 16/17. The pattern is surprisingly similar across all the countries which data is available for.
https://www.euromomo.eu
Interesting.

Of course what we can't know with any certainty is what these graphs would have looked like without the lockdown.
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Old 21st April 2020, 11:44 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I was going to mention that point - UK deaths are clearly far higher than official numbers, and they aren't alone. We know for sure USA has also under-counted.
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Some interesting points overnight:

St Louis - this will be a good place to check case loads in 10-14 days, after thousands of people gathered together in street parties so large the cops couldn't move them on*: https://fox2now.com/news/street-part...ty-and-county/

*without breaking out the tear gas and batons, and I don't think that would have played too well.
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One point to keep note of when looking at excess deaths in the future is that the low rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses during the pandemic will need to be allowed for, because they've just disappeared here, and the same must be true elsewhere: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...uring-lockdown
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Old 21st April 2020, 11:51 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
St Louis - this will be a good place to check case loads in 10-14 days, after thousands of people gathered together in street parties so large the cops couldn't move them on*: https://fox2now.com/news/street-part...ty-and-county/
"Evolution in Action" as Jerry Pornelle used to say.
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Old 21st April 2020, 11:54 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Not sure if this has been discussed in this thread, but I recently came across this:

From: https://www.businessinsider.com/snif...-mirror-2020-4
Specially trained medical detection dogs could be the solution to the crisis in the lack of testing that many countries are facing during the coronavirus pandemic....The dogs are capable of sniff testing 750 people an hour...It will take several weeks of experimentation before it will be known if dogs are able to identify the coronavirus.

First of all, i got to wonder... who actually thought of this idea? I mean, they use dogs to detect other diseases, so this should be a natural progression... but still, its a brilliant idea.

Secondly... does anyone else think this could be a real game-changer (assuming it actually works)? I am sure there will be plenty of errors, and it won't replace lab testing. But a small team of dogs could probably 'clear' the residents of a small city in a matter of weeks. It won't eradicate the disease, but it would probably give enough security to allow the economy to be opened back up. The question then becomes how to distribute detection dogs for the best effect.
It could be quite useful even if it's not 100% accurate; the people the dog "hits" on could have a DNA or antibody test to confirm. I'm not sure on the logistics of training enough dogs vs. producing more test kits. Given other things dogs do, I certainly wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. Heck, my own dog has a phenomenal sense of smell, even though the only practical (for him) use to which he has put it is locating garbage buried in snowbanks.
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Old 21st April 2020, 12:20 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I was going to mention that point - UK deaths are clearly far higher than official numbers, and they aren't alone. We know for sure USA has also under-counted.
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Some interesting points overnight:

St Louis - this will be a good place to check case loads in 10-14 days, after thousands of people gathered together in street parties so large the cops couldn't move them on*: https://fox2now.com/news/street-part...ty-and-county/

*without breaking out the tear gas and batons, and I don't think that would have played too well.
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One point to keep note of when looking at excess deaths in the future is that the low rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses during the pandemic will need to be allowed for, because they've just disappeared here, and the same must be true elsewhere: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...uring-lockdown
Re: St. Luois, we'll see just how virulent it is among people healthy enough to party.

Re: the bubbles of excess deaths, they might be the most at risk, the old and decripit, dying off. Drop them out of the stats, and the risk to the young and healthy drops to miniscule levels.
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Old 21st April 2020, 12:51 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Re: St. Luois, we'll see just how virulent it is among people healthy enough to party.

Re: the bubbles of excess deaths, they might be the most at risk, the old and decripit, dying off. Drop them out of the stats, and the risk to the young and healthy drops to miniscule levels.
Or the extent to which people as thoughtless as this visits other, more vulnerable people.
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Old 21st April 2020, 01:56 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
"Evolution in Action" as Jerry Pornelle used to say.
Yeah, I just hope the litle wankers don't all give it to their grandparents.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Re: St. Luois, we'll see just how virulent it is among people healthy enough to party.
More importantly, we'll see how many of their relatives die.

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Re: the bubbles of excess deaths, they might be the most at risk, the old and decripit, dying off. Drop them out of the stats, and the risk to the young and healthy drops to miniscule levels.
You're determined to prove your maths ability is non-existent, aren't you?

UK is currently showing a mortality rate of almost 15%. If we add in another 50% of uncounted deaths, that would make it over 20%.

Sure, they're not counting a lot of cases, and might have missed 90%, so the mortality rate in UK is probably closer to 2%, like most places with reliable data.

Then, if 75% of the deaths are among the elderly and frail - and it certainly is not any higher than that - it's only got a mortality rate of 0.5%, barely three times worse than seasonal 'flus.

I'm not even going to mention the thousands of people with permanent damage from organ failures caused by the disease - your attempts to portray the disease as not very dangerous to younger people are nonsense unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.

It's a fact that over 20% of ICU admissions are people aged under 55: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

Note that if you look at under 65s, over a third of cases admitted to ICU fall in that group.

You are woefully wrong.

Again.
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Old 21st April 2020, 02:24 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, I just hope the litle wankers don't all give it to their grandparents.



More importantly, we'll see how many of their relatives die.



You're determined to prove your maths ability is non-existent, aren't you?

UK is currently showing a mortality rate of almost 15%. If we add in another 50% of uncounted deaths, that would make it over 20%.

Sure, they're not counting a lot of cases, and might have missed 90%, so the mortality rate in UK is probably closer to 2%, like most places with reliable data.

Then, if 75% of the deaths are among the elderly and frail - and it certainly is not any higher than that - it's only got a mortality rate of 0.5%, barely three times worse than seasonal 'flus.

I'm not even going to mention the thousands of people with permanent damage from organ failures caused by the disease - your attempts to portray the disease as not very dangerous to younger people are nonsense unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.

It's a fact that over 20% of ICU admissions are people aged under 55: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

Note that if you look at under 65s, over a third of cases admitted to ICU fall in that group.

You are woefully wrong.

Again.
So 80% of ICU admissions are over 55, 66% of ICU admissions are over 65, which is 13% of the population? In NYC, 75% of deaths are over 65. Where is that maths wrong?

Or extrapolate from the California numbers, the only source of a random serological study. 95% of cases , the subject doesn't even know they had it. Of the other 5%, it may have been as week as the sniffles. In L.A. county extrapolation so far: 300,000 asymptomatic, 12,000 symptomatic, 600 deaths. Overall death rate, 2:1,000 if EVERYBODY gets it. That is assuming no herd immunity and no vaccination. And that the L A numbers prove valid.

One risk factor not putting everybody into a tizzy is an off-shoot of density, that is living conditions. Single family and small apartment buildings, each unit with it's own ventilation control. Like most of LA. Vs high rises like most of NYC. Here in San Diego County, just south of Los Angeles, half the deaths were among people living in retirement homes. Patients as young as 50. So maybe not the decrepit in convalescent centers.
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Old 21st April 2020, 03:13 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
So 80% of ICU admissions are over 55, 66% of ICU admissions are over 65, which is 13% of the population? In NYC, 75% of deaths are over 65. Where is that maths wrong?
Sorry mate, you must have a different meaning for the word "minuscule" to me. I always think of 25% as a "hefty chunk" rather than "minuscule", and this is your direct quote:

Originally Posted by casebro
Drop them out of the stats, and the risk to the young and healthy drops to miniscule levels.

And this, again?

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Or extrapolate from the California numbers, the only source of a random serological study.

Which has been thoroughly debunked, but keep beating that drum, mate.

https://www.wired.com/story/new-covi...re-they-right/

I mean, recruiting subjects off Farcebook and you're promoting it? Srsly?

(I sincerely hope nobody tells you the fairly worthless test kits used were made in China! You know, the evil empire that let the virus escape from its lab in the first place? Those are the kits you're using to verify your strange and conspiratorial posting. I'd say LOL if I used internet acronyms.)
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Old 21st April 2020, 03:20 PM   #279
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Study of the Diamond Princess COVID-19 infection sequences.

Summary:
Quote:
Infection among passengers after Feb 6 was limited to those who stayed in the same stateroom with an infected passenger. Infections in crew members peaked on Feb 7, suggesting significant transmission among crew members after quarantine on Feb 5. Conclusions: We infer that the ship central air conditioning system did not play a role, i.e. the long-range airborne route was absent in the outbreak. Most transmission appears to have occurred through close contact and fomites.
So apparently most infections were within a cabin containing multiple people. And even though many crew members were also infected, there appears to not be significant spread form crew to passengers.

If this study is accurate, then serological tests amongst the 70% of passengers that never tested positive should also be quite low. Anyone doing that?

As a side note: 1.8% with a positive test died and they tested virtually everyone on the ship/

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...04.09.20059113
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Old 21st April 2020, 03:32 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Study of the Diamond Princess COVID-19 infection sequences.

Summary:


So apparently most infections were within a cabin containing multiple people. And even though many crew members were also infected, there appears to not be significant spread form crew to passengers.

If this study is accurate, then serological tests amongst the 70% of passengers that never tested positive should also be quite low. Anyone doing that?

As a side note: 1.8% with a positive test died and they tested virtually everyone on the ship/

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...04.09.20059113
Perhaps the most significant fact would be this implies aerosol spread is rare, predominantly it is droplet / contact spread. More like flu than measles.
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