ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 4th January 2020, 10:46 PM   #1
DallasDad
Muse
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 896
How many people...?

How many people would need to relocate to rural areas to change some of the red states to blue?


Take Wyoming, with approximately 577 thousand residents. Get 500 thousand Californians to move (some anti-particle Koch could fund it). California's voters' map would be essentially unchanged, but Wyoming would flip.


How many states could we flip? Is this a realistic way to effect change?
DallasDad is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th January 2020, 11:28 PM   #2
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,835
The Libertarians were actually talking about this maybe 25 years ago, and specifically targeting Wyoming.

In 2016, Trump won Wyoming by about 174,000-56,000. That's about 120,000 more Democrats you'd need to turn the state, and that's without any margin for safety. Basically that would require increasing the state's population by about 20%, assuming only adults move there; if they have kids, it would be more.

And there is always the risk that they will go renegade once outside the liberal coastal bubble.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th January 2020, 02:02 AM   #3
Cain
Straussian
 
Cain's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 13,778
Libertarians ultimately chose New Hampshire for the "Free State Project." Some rabid folks even moved to a specific town for the "Free Town Project." Long-time residents resented the carpet-baggers. Local conservatives thought it was nutty to abolish government snow-clearing services and legalize cannibalism.
__________________
April 13th, 2018:
Ranb: I can't think of anything useful you contributed to a thread in the last few years.
Cain is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th January 2020, 07:29 AM   #4
shemp
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
 
shemp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: People's Democratic Republic of Planet X
Posts: 36,531
Originally Posted by Cain View Post
Libertarians ultimately chose New Hampshire for the "Free State Project." Some rabid folks even moved to a specific town for the "Free Town Project." Long-time residents resented the carpet-baggers. Local conservatives thought it was nutty to abolish government snow-clearing services and legalize cannibalism.
Cannibalism was already legal here, but only of bodies that had died of natural causes. But it was the snow-clearing thing that got them tarred, feathered and run out of the state on a rail.
__________________
"Shemp, you are the one fixed point in an ever-changing universe." - Beady
"I don't want to live in a world without shemp." - Quarky
"...just as a magnet attracts iron filings, Trump shemp attracts, and is attracted to, louts." - George Will
"[shemp is] a most notable coward, an infinite and endless liar, an hourly promise breaker, the owner of no one good quality." - Shakespeare

Last edited by shemp; 5th January 2020 at 07:31 AM.
shemp is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th January 2020, 07:52 AM   #5
The Man
Unbanned zombie poster
 
The Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Poughkeepsie, NY
Posts: 14,778
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
The Libertarians were actually talking about this maybe 25 years ago, and specifically targeting Wyoming.

In 2016, Trump won Wyoming by about 174,000-56,000. That's about 120,000 more Democrats you'd need to turn the state, and that's without any margin for safety. Basically that would require increasing the state's population by about 20%, assuming only adults move there; if they have kids, it would be more.

And there is always the risk that they will go renegade once outside the liberal coastal bubble.

Funny thing is that for Wyoming in 2016 while 107% of registered voters turned out, only 57% of voting age adults did. So it's hard to make such assessments based on votes cast when almost, up to and often over as many eligible people again just don't vote. Not real sure how to interpret the 107%. Does it mean that 16,856 of the votes counted were not registered or that because they weren't registered 16,856 votes cast were not counted. the latter of course seems the more likely.


https://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/...terProfile.pdf

ETA:

Turns out the 107% is because Wyoming allows registering at the polls.
__________________
BRAINZZZZZZZZ

Last edited by The Man; 5th January 2020 at 08:28 AM. Reason: ETA
The Man is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 5th January 2020, 08:54 PM   #6
Silly Green Monkey
Cowardly Lurking in the Shadows of Greatness
 
Silly Green Monkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Arizona
Posts: 4,969
Do those numbers mean that only half of Wyoming's adult population was registered to vote? Probably some of those are ineligible for some reason or another, but it's still a low number.
__________________
Normal is just a stereotype.
Silly Green Monkey is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 06:58 AM   #7
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
The Libertarians were actually talking about this maybe 25 years ago, and specifically targeting Wyoming.

In 2016, Trump won Wyoming by about 174,000-56,000. That's about 120,000 more Democrats you'd need to turn the state, and that's without any margin for safety. Basically that would require increasing the state's population by about 20%, assuming only adults move there; if they have kids, it would be more.

And there is always the risk that they will go renegade once outside the liberal coastal bubble.
Or some of those conservatives will be turned when they meet people who grew up outside the Fox News/Koch propaganda bubble. After all, they are very suggestible.
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 07:06 AM   #8
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 90,809
Originally Posted by DallasDad View Post
How many people would need to relocate to rural areas to change some of the red states to blue?
That'd run the chance of instead converting these voters to Republican.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 07:08 AM   #9
plague311
Great minds think...
 
plague311's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: North Dakota
Posts: 8,309
Originally Posted by Cain View Post
Some rabid folks even moved to a specific town for the "Free Town Project."
We had something fairly equivalent to that happen in North Dakota not too long ago with some White Supremacists. They tried to vote themselves into city council in a town with about 18 registered voters. They ended up getting kicked out of the town because of some gun restrictions.

This can be done, but as Brainster mentioned you're going to lose a >0% of those people when they move to rural areas and meet the people. Maybe you'll snag them for one cycle, but the rural areas have a way of changing minds.
__________________
"Circumcision and death threats go together like milk and cookies." - William Parcher

“There are times when the mind is dealt such a blow it hides itself in insanity. While this may not seem beneficial, it is. There are times when reality is nothing but pain, and to escape that pain the mind must leave reality behind.” - Patrick Rothfuss

Last edited by plague311; 6th January 2020 at 07:09 AM.
plague311 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 07:12 AM   #10
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
That'd run the chance of instead converting these voters to Republican.
Not if they move en masse and don't lock into the FOX News bubble. Remember, conservatism in our time is about being "anti-" everything. Its purely reactionary. What happens when the people moving in are the ones you are supposed to be "anti-" ? You expect them to makes themselves the "other"?
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 07:15 AM   #11
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 90,809
Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Not if they move en masse and don't lock into the FOX News bubble. Remember, conservatism in our time is about being "anti-" everything. Its purely reactionary.
My point is that one's outlook is in large part due to their environment and upbringing. En masse, maybe, but otherwise the effect might be cancelled out with a generation or two.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 07:20 AM   #12
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
Originally Posted by DallasDad View Post
How many people would need to relocate to rural areas to change some of the red states to blue?


Take Wyoming, with approximately 577 thousand residents. Get 500 thousand Californians to move (some anti-particle Koch could fund it). California's voters' map would be essentially unchanged, but Wyoming would flip.


How many states could we flip? Is this a realistic way to effect change?
Probably better to go after states that are already vulnerable like PA, FL, OH, CO, AZ, NM, GA, and, dare I say, TX. These states are already either purple or starting to tilt that way. I think Mississippi can be a surprise if we can do something about the NeoJim Crow laws. As much as we like to bag on some of these states, there are a lot of people there who get screwed by the white supremacist rule and just need someone to fight with them.
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 07:23 AM   #13
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
My point is that one's outlook is in large part due to their environment and upbringing. En masse, maybe, but otherwise the effect might be cancelled out with a generation or two.
You're more likely to see the people currently in power try to consolidate further and restrict the voting rights of the new comers.
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 08:05 AM   #14
sackett
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Detroit
Posts: 6,047
We Wyoming people command more electoral ballots than the rest of you by right. We are your betters, and you clearly admit that by your stooped submission to us, for all your muttering and shuffling.

And half of what's wrong with the US of A goes back to that Jew bastard Frankling Roozefelt!
__________________
Fill the seats of justice with good men; not so absolute in goodness as to forget what human frailty is. -- Thomas Jefferson

What region of the earth is not filled with our calamities? -- Virgil
sackett is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 08:06 AM   #15
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 90,809
Originally Posted by Donal View Post
You're more likely to see the people currently in power try to consolidate further and restrict the voting rights of the new comers.
Of course, though that's not mutually-exclusive with the other possibility.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 08:36 AM   #16
Suddenly
No Punting
 
Suddenly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 3,774
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post

And there is always the risk that they will go renegade once outside the liberal coastal bubble.
It depends on where they go. If they all go to Laramie they won't see much of a change.

If they get out of the cities and are in smaller depressed areas I agree about the bubble, just that someone so into the idea of being liberal to move is more likely to radicalize leftward once they see how much of mess these areas are, but who knows.

That is the thing: Liberals wanting to move to smaller states almost always have choices that aren't going to be all that much different as what they left behind. They don't have to go all pith helmet explorer and move into the sticks. The political divide is more urban/rural than it is based strictly on the state.
Suddenly is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 08:49 AM   #17
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 26,153
Originally Posted by Silly Green Monkey View Post
Do those numbers mean that only half of Wyoming's adult population was registered to vote? Probably some of those are ineligible for some reason or another, but it's still a low number.
60% of the voting age population is registered to vote, 74% of registered voters actually voted in the 2018 General Election so 46.4% voter turnout.

https://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/...terProfile.pdf
__________________
- I don't know how to convince you that facts exist
- I don't know how to convince you that you should care about other people
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 09:31 AM   #18
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
It depends on where they go. If they all go to Laramie they won't see much of a change.

If they get out of the cities and are in smaller depressed areas I agree about the bubble, just that someone so into the idea of being liberal to move is more likely to radicalize leftward once they see how much of mess these areas are, but who knows.

That is the thing: Liberals wanting to move to smaller states almost always have choices that aren't going to be all that much different as what they left behind. They don't have to go all pith helmet explorer and move into the sticks. The political divide is more urban/rural than it is based strictly on the state.
Which is why certain states like Mississippi have their own mini electoral college. You have to win the popular vote AND the majority of counties to win the higher offices like governor. Otherwise, it goes to the state legislature. Which is already tilted to favor the county selection rather than the popular vote. This is why a bunch of liberals moving to these states isn't really going to flip anything for a while.
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 12:53 PM   #19
The Man
Unbanned zombie poster
 
The Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Poughkeepsie, NY
Posts: 14,778
Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Which is why certain states like Mississippi have their own mini electoral college. You have to win the popular vote AND the majority of counties to win the higher offices like governor. Otherwise, it goes to the state legislature. Which is already tilted to favor the county selection rather than the popular vote. This is why a bunch of liberals moving to these states isn't really going to flip anything for a while.
Right, since often what you have to flip first (either way) is the state government. As they are the ones who set how voting takes place.
__________________
BRAINZZZZZZZZ
The Man is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 01:01 PM   #20
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
That's why I think it is better to start with the purple states. Once you have them, you can also start to pass federal voter protections. It would be a bigger stick to wing at the suppression laws.
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2020, 01:02 PM   #21
BStrong
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,904
Originally Posted by DallasDad View Post
How many people would need to relocate to rural areas to change some of the red states to blue?


Take Wyoming, with approximately 577 thousand residents. Get 500 thousand Californians to move (some anti-particle Koch could fund it). California's voters' map would be essentially unchanged, but Wyoming would flip.


How many states could we flip? Is this a realistic way to effect change?
People in other states hate Californians enough, don't contribute to the cause.
__________________
Music is what feelings sound like

"Dulce bellum inexpertīs." - Erasmus
BStrong is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2020, 06:50 AM   #22
Suddenly
No Punting
 
Suddenly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 3,774
Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Which is why certain states like Mississippi have their own mini electoral college. You have to win the popular vote AND the majority of counties to win the higher offices like governor. Otherwise, it goes to the state legislature. Which is already tilted to favor the county selection rather than the popular vote. This is why a bunch of liberals moving to these states isn't really going to flip anything for a while.
I had to look that up. As described that is clearly an illegal system. It turns out they use state legislative districts, which are at least proportioned to population which doesn't clearly violate the 14th amendment. There may be an equal protection argument against it if the districts are drawn to lessen the effect of the black vote, which knowing how Mississippi works I'm gonna suspect there is an issue there.

But yes, that is a wrench in that plan.
Suddenly is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2020, 06:53 AM   #23
Suddenly
No Punting
 
Suddenly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 3,774
Originally Posted by Donal View Post
That's why I think it is better to start with the purple states. Once you have them, you can also start to pass federal voter protections. It would be a bigger stick to wing at the suppression laws.
I'd agree. I think that Wyoming comes up solely because there aren't that many people there.
Suddenly is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2020, 10:12 AM   #24
Pope130
Illuminator
 
Pope130's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Oregon
Posts: 3,399
Originally Posted by DallasDad View Post
How many people would need to relocate to rural areas to change some of the red states to blue?


Take Wyoming, with approximately 577 thousand residents. Get 500 thousand Californians to move (some anti-particle Koch could fund it). California's voters' map would be essentially unchanged, but Wyoming would flip.


How many states could we flip? Is this a realistic way to effect change?
You would need to do ideological tests on the emigrants from California to make sure you are not shipping out conservatives. There are people in California who are not happy with its' Democratic Party dominated government, and who would move given the means. The net effect on national politics would be a shift to the right by making purple states more red.

There are already people moving out of California and New York in substantial numbers. It would be interesting to see the effect that has had on the states they move to (other than increasing housing costs and traffic congestion).

Last edited by Pope130; 7th January 2020 at 10:15 AM.
Pope130 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2020, 10:22 AM   #25
Giordano
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 17,371
Interestingly there was already an attempt to get liberals to settle in Wyoming in the 1970s. It was called the Wyoming Project IIRC, but never went anywhere. I don't know why exactly but I can imagine a lot of reasons.
Giordano is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2020, 10:54 AM   #26
Donal
Illuminator
 
Donal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 4,272
Originally Posted by Pope130 View Post
You would need to do ideological tests on the emigrants from California to make sure you are not shipping out conservatives. There are people in California who are not happy with its' Democratic Party dominated government, and who would move given the means. The net effect on national politics would be a shift to the right by making purple states more red.

There are already people moving out of California and New York in substantial numbers. It would be interesting to see the effect that has had on the states they move to (other than increasing housing costs and traffic congestion).
I've read these are older people who don't like paying high taxes and are the real reason Texas and Florida are still voting red. Apparently, the folks who are born and raised in these states have been moving purple for a while.
__________________
SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense
Donal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2020, 10:59 AM   #27
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 28,406
Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
People in other states hate Californians enough, don't contribute to the cause.
We used to have bumper stickers around here saying "Don't Californicate Washington".
And what are all those Californians supposed to DO once they get to Wyoming? It's not like there are a whole lot of jobs there. That's why there are so few people.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 12:33 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.