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Tags Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , global warming , green energy issues

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Old 18th February 2019, 07:07 AM   #641
Belz...
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I doubt insurance companies do cost/benefit analysis based on bad press and movies. I'm pretty sure they have researchers find facts and studies to weigh the factors.
I'm sure you're right on the latter, but those companies are run by people, and they're not immune to public hysteria.

Quote:
You make plenty of assumptions that are not in evidence. Solar, wind, geothermal are all good alternatives that could very well make up parts of an energy infrastructure along with batteries and a small contribution from fossil fuels.
How are they "good" alternatives? It's absolutely not "in evidence" that batteries can supply half the world in electricity during the night, especially during very hot or cold days, or during weeks where one barely sees the sun through the clouds. It's fantasy. You need a type of power generation that does _not_ rely on the weather.

Coal is dirty, dangerous, contributes to greenhouse effects, and actually puts out a lot of waste that is not only toxic forever, but also radioactive.

Quote:
I'll take a gander.
In case you find that "harm" or "deaths" is not a proper way to compare these technologies, I'd like you to tell me what standard you'd use for the comparison. If the point of not wanting nuclear because it's risky, then harm absolutely is the only yardstick I can think of.

ETA:

Quote:
I notice none of these studies include data about solar, wind or geothermal sources
What? Look again. Wiki has the same numbers, and they absolutely include solar and wind.
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Old 18th February 2019, 07:17 AM   #642
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
How are they "good" alternatives? It's absolutely not "in evidence" that batteries can supply half the world in electricity during the night, especially during very hot or cold days, or during weeks where one barely sees the sun through the clouds. It's fantasy. You need a type of power generation that does _not_ rely on the weather.
It is getting better all the time, but as I said, these would all be parts of an infrastructure.

Quote:
Coal is dirty, dangerous, contributes to greenhouse effects, and actually puts out a lot of waste that is not only toxic forever, but also radioactive.
Quote:
In case you find that "harm" or "deaths" is not a proper way to compare these technologies, I'd like you to tell me what standard you'd use for the comparison. If the point of not wanting nuclear because it's risky, then harm absolutely is the only yardstick I can think of.
Environmental risks and economic risks are major factors as well. Nuclear is very costly and accidents are always paid for by the public.

I could be on board with nuclear power but only if it was owned and operated by the public. The Navy has the safest and most reliable nuclear program out there and if nuclear power plants were run in the same way, I think it would be fine.
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Old 18th February 2019, 07:24 AM   #643
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
It is getting better all the time, but as I said, these would all be parts of an infrastructure.
But you can't assume that it'll keep improving until we hit the point where they're coincidentally just as good as you would want them to be.

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Environmental risks and economic risks are major factors as well. Nuclear is very costly and accidents are always paid for by the public.
Yes but that's taken into consideration.

As for environmental impact, consider this: wind and solar require a LOT of rare earth mining, which is very destructive to local environments. I'm not sure there is enough of this stuff accessible on Earth to fill all our power needs, to say nothing about the waste of iron and copper, transportation, repair and replacement, waste, etc.

Nuclear still has a smaller footprint. Think of it as planes vs cars: more people die in car accidents and planes are much safer, but a single crashed 747 makes the news. It's shocking, just like a single nuke going up. But it doesn't change the fact that the damned things are safer than the alternatives.

Quote:
I could be on board with nuclear power but only if it was owned and operated by the public. The Navy has the safest and most reliable nuclear program out there and if nuclear power plants were run in the same way, I think it would be fine.
I can agree to that. And in addition, we could invest in _other_ nuclear technologies that were not developed but that could result in safer and cheaper plants. But I don't think dismissing fission is a good idea. We need the electricity, and at this point there is no clean alternative that will do the job fully.
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Old 18th February 2019, 08:12 AM   #644
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post

I could be on board with nuclear power but only if it was owned and operated by the public. The Navy has the safest and most reliable nuclear program out there and if nuclear power plants were run in the same way, I think it would be fine.
I strongly agree with this.
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Old 18th February 2019, 08:19 AM   #645
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Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
In my natural resources department, maybe. But even with our own students, those from ranching backgrounds have a real tough time convincing their dads, uncles, and grandpas to try anything new that's suggested by their liberal*, environmentalist*, college graduate* kid.

*these terms all pejoratives

Meanwhile, there are entire departments in our college force-feeding even bigger classes of students to buy/sell pesticides/fertilizers out the ying-yang, 'cause that's how you raise cows. Getting these folks even acknowledge climate science out loud is a tough sell, because they equate it with being a libtard* and that's the worst thing a person can be.
Well I do agree being a libtard* is the worst thing a human being can be, but I haven't seen anywhere near the push back as you describe. And I am out there talking to other farmers and ranchers all the time.

But then around here is a sort of cultural memory of the dust bowl. I try to use that cultural memory to my advantage and when I talk about atmospheric carbon that belongs in the soil being put back where it belongs, it immediately strikes a chord and gets them listening.

*Dictionary result for libtard
/ˈlibˌtärd/
noun INFORMAL•OFFENSIVE
  1. a contemptuous term for the worst thing a person with left-wing political views can be.
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Old 18th February 2019, 08:22 AM   #646
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I could be on board with nuclear power but only if it was owned and operated by the public. The Navy has the safest and most reliable nuclear program out there and if nuclear power plants were run in the same way, I think it would be fine.
*Laughs* I don't know if the world can survive another Rickover.

But seriously I agree with you. If the Navy can get 18 year olds to run reactors on an E-4's pay with a safety record like they have on a time frame like they've had in an environment like they run it in, we shouldn't have to keep pandering to the lamb bleating "But is it safe?" crowd.

By every possible metric nuclear power is our best bet.
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Old 18th February 2019, 08:55 AM   #647
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Nobody said that nuclear power plants are harmless or risk-free. You're both responding to an argument I didn't make.
Excuse me, I wasn't correcting your argument. I was correcting your big fat lie about a very important fact.

Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
The same is true from Fukushima, which is stated in Yuppy's own links.
And absolute everything you've said is responding to an argument I didn't make. Jesus, way to double down.
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Old 18th February 2019, 09:52 AM   #648
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Excuse me, I wasn't correcting your argument. I was correcting your big fat lie about a very important fact.
I didn't lie, so clearly you're mistaken. Maybe you should've read your link before posting it.

Quote:
And absolute everything you've said is responding to an argument I didn't make.
What are you talking about? I pointed out that your link indicated that the number of deaths is an extrapolation in the future; and one based on ignorance. No one actually died.

Can you address any of that?
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:03 AM   #649
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I didn't lie, so clearly you're mistaken. Maybe you should've read your link before posting it.

What are you talking about? I pointed out that your link indicated that the number of deaths is an extrapolation in the future; and one based on ignorance. No one actually died.

Can you address any of that?
It's already freaking addressed. I cited two articles from both ends of the spectrum of accepted opinion. Even the lower one cites a thousand deaths.

And I see no possible way to interpret my figure as an "extrapolation in to the future". And what the hell would that mean anyway? Since 8 years of "future" have happened certainly some of those extrapolated deaths would have happened by now. And it doesn't freaking matter since the figures cited weren't an extrapolation anyway.
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:13 AM   #650
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
It's already freaking addressed. I cited two articles from both ends of the spectrum of accepted opinion. Even the lower one cites a thousand deaths.

And I see no possible way to interpret my figure as an "extrapolation in to the future". And what the hell would that mean anyway?
I've already explained it.

We have very little data on the effect of low-levels of radiation on human health. We know that strong exposure kills at a certain rate of additional cancer, but below a certain point, we don't know much. For Chernobyl, for instance, the estimate of several thousands simply assumed that the 'curve' could be extrapolated down to those levels and made an estimate. That's silly, if you ask me, but that's what happened. From your own links I suspect that this is what they did for Fukushima as well.

Now we know _for sure_ that a good 50 people died from the effects of Chernobyl, and it's no laughing matter, especially given that the area is uninhabitable even 30+ years later. However, keep in mind that this reactor was possibly the worst functional design you could ever imagine, and I've said in the past that if the Soviets wanted Chernobyl to blow up and kill people, they couldn't have done a better job of it.

So is it possible that thousands will die because of that incident? Yes. Is it known with any sort of certainty? No. If one wants to argue from ignorance then they are free to use the extrapolation, but I'd rather work with more certain facts, and those facts don't support those numbers, because we simply don't know what the impact will be. That doesn't mean that I can categorically state that only 50 people will have died as a result, but it does mean that I can categorically state that only 50 people are KNOWN to have died as a result.

Fukushima's story's even milder, since the release of radioactive materials into the environment was, comparatively, minimal.
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:21 AM   #651
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Originally Posted by The Shrike View Post
Although I agree with you that we are way overusing fertilizers* there are plenty of idiot neo-Luddites out there blithely spending big $$$ to degrade their land that way. ...
Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
Well I do agree being a libtard* is the worst thing a human being can be, but I haven't seen anywhere near the push back as you describe. And I am out there talking to other farmers and ranchers all the time...

*Dictionary result for libtard
/ˈlibˌtärd/
noun INFORMAL•OFFENSIVE
  1. a contemptuous term for the worst thing a person with left-wing political views can be.
@Red Baron Farms Let's see, insofar as citations, we have the fertilizer industry. And we have your anecdotes about farmers.

Neither of which are poster children for a liberal demographic. Can we agree on that?

♫ At farmers only dot com! ♫

And yet the gratuitous insult. Did you get that from Dale Carnagie?
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:28 AM   #652
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I'm sure you're right on the latter, but those companies are run by people, and they're not immune to public hysteria.
Probably even more importantly from an insurance perspective, juries are not immune to public hysteria.
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:33 AM   #653
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
However, keep in mind that this reactor was possibly the worst functional design you could ever imagine, and I've said in the past that if the Soviets wanted Chernobyl to blow up and kill people, they couldn't have done a better job of it.
And not just in the design, let it be said. The operators couldn't have done any better if they had intentionally wanted to blow it up either. It's really stunning how badly they fumbled things.

Even assuming some American operators similarly did every possible thing wrong, a US reactor is not physically capable of blowing up like Chernobyl did.
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:42 AM   #654
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
And not just in the design, let it be said. The operators couldn't have done any better if they had intentionally wanted to blow it up either. It's really stunning how badly they fumbled things.
It's also worth mentioning that it was the night crew. They weren't even supposed to be doing that test.
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:58 AM   #655
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Nuclear power is too risky on several levels, so risky that it is not insurable.That is a very big reason to phase out that technology.
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
The insurance issue is mostly because of perception which, as I said, is mainly based on a single high-profile accident, and lots of propaganda in the form of bad movies and bad reporting.

Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I doubt insurance companies do cost/benefit analysis based on bad press and movies. I'm pretty sure they have researchers find facts and studies to weigh the factors.
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I'm sure you're right on the latter, but those companies are run by people, and they're not immune to public hysteria.
This is a lot of debate over an initial claim that is a complete lie. A complete lie that is spread by every anti-nuclear activist. Of course if anti-nuclear activists stopped spreading lies they would have nothing left. Lying anti-nuclear activists should ask themselves why they need to tell lies, but they won't. They will just continue lying and lying and lying.

If there is a major oil spill - like say Deep Water Horizon, their liability tops out at 75 million. The public was on the hook for the additional 1.5+ billion (This happens all the time - still they don't require coverage to properly cover catastrophic events). A hydro dam fails and causes billions in damages and the public is on the hook for most of it (This has happened in the US - still they don't need proper coverage). Chemical company explosion? Good luck on that one. The nuclear industry carries 10 billion in insurance - through private commercial insurance companies despite the lie that is always spread - 50 times more than it has paid out total. Activists claim that essentially the only major industry that is actually covered for catastrophic events - not only isn't covered, but can't be covered. And they claim that insurance companies refuse to cover the nuclear industry, when in reality they love to cover it because it is easy money. And they do all this lying with complete confidence.
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Old 18th February 2019, 10:58 AM   #656
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
So is it possible that thousands will die because of that incident? Yes. Is it known with any sort of certainty? No.

A thousand people DID die.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:06 AM   #657
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Probably even more importantly from an insurance perspective, juries are not immune to public hysteria.
Case in point; the number of things that cause cancer... but only in California.

"Legal Precedents" are not facts.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:10 AM   #658
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
More than a thousand dead and more than 100K evacuated.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/informa...-accident.aspx

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukush...ter_casualties


It's difficult to distinguish an exact list of deaths cause by the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident but I can't find any source that attributes less then a thousand deaths to the nuclear accident.
Oh what kind of fear mongering nonsense is this?

By that logic if I trip and break my neck running away from a ghost that doesn't exist, the ghost killed me.

You can't count people who died evacuating against the things "death total."

1 person, tragically, died. But that person was an absolute worst case scenario inside another absolute worst case scenario. Perspective has to be kept.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:11 AM   #659
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
A thousand people DID die.
In the same sense that people who drive to their destination instead of fly because they think flying is more dangerous than driving and wind up killed in traffic accidents count toward "Air travel deaths" sure.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:14 AM   #660
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
A thousand people DID die.
From Chernobyl? No. You cannot say that with any degree of certainty. I've already explained to you how that number was derived.

It would be nice if, rather than insist that you're correct, you addressed the points I've made. You know, discussing the issue.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:16 AM   #661
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Wait are we talking Chernobyl or Fukashima?

Because if we're talking the former... well the Soviets couldn't install a fuse without killing a thousand of their people. Soviet doctrine has always been "we have reserves."

If we're talking the later the statistics is fear mongering B.S.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:16 AM   #662
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
From Chernobyl? No. You cannot say that with any degree of certainty. I've already explained to you how that number was derived.
No. From Fukushima FFS.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:16 AM   #663
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
@Red Baron Farms ...

And yet the gratuitous insult. Did you get that from Dale Carnagie?
Most certainly not. Dale Carnegie was an American writer and lecturer, and the developer of famous courses in self-improvement, salesmanship, corporate training, public speaking, and interpersonal skills.

Not one damn one of those has anything at all to do with the plight of the American farmer, who tends to very much dislike salesmen, corporate execs, and of course all these mamby pamby libtard self-improvement and interpersonal skills courses!

And you think this attitude is gratuitous? You driven out to the midwest small town farm communities recently? Have you seen what the libtards, neoliberals and neo-luddite arsewipes have done to the foundation of this great country?

It aint even about left wing and right wing anymore. Damn near all city folk politics has conspired to destroy the farmers way of life with all their naive "help".

But bad as that all may be, in the end it will be us farmers and ranchers that pull you all out of the fire of global warming, if you just stop trying to stop us from doing our job and provide a little infrastructure support instead. A carbon market with verified offsets in the soil would go a very long way towards undoing all the destruction caused by libtards, neo-luddites, neoliberals meddling.

It's conservative because you would simply be paying for a service. Get it? No free lunch. Stop paying welfare to farmers to cause global warming, and instead pay for the service of carbon sequestration into the soil, and it will be all over with in a few decades. Problem solved by conservative capitalism.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:17 AM   #664
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
You can't count people who died evacuating against the things "death total."

Can't tell if you're serious. Unfortunately it's come to that.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:18 AM   #665
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
A thousand people DID die.
From your link:

By October 2012, over 1000 disaster-related deaths that were not due to radiation-induced damage or to the earthquake or to the tsunami had been identified by the Reconstruction Agency...

The premature deaths reported in 2012 were mainly related to the following: (1) somatic effects and spiritual fatigue brought on by having to reside in shelters; (2) Transfer trauma – the mental or physical burden of the forced move from their homes for fragile individuals; and (3) delays in obtaining needed medical support because of the enormous destruction caused by the earthquake and tsunami.
Effects (1) and (2) were largely preventable by not evacuating. Effect (3) cannot be disentangled from the effects of the tsunami. The lesson seems to be that overreaction is a greater threat than an accident itself.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:20 AM   #666
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
From Chernobyl?
For Fukishima. And he's likely right, with some important caveats (see my previous post).
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:20 AM   #667
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
Most certainly not. Dale Carnegie was an American writer and lecturer, and the developer of famous courses in self-improvement, salesmanship, corporate training, public speaking, and interpersonal skills.

Not one damn one of those has anything at all to do with the plight of the American farmer, who tends to very much dislike salesmen, corporate execs, and of course all these mamby pamby libtard self-improvement and interpersonal skills courses!

And you think this attitude is gratuitous? You driven out to the midwest small town farm communities recently? Have you seen what the libtards, neoliberals and neo-luddite arsewipes have done to the foundation of this great country?

It aint even about left wing and right wing anymore. Damn near all city folk politics has conspired to destroy the farmers way of life with all their naive "help".
It isnt city folk that did that. Unless you mean rich bankers and corporations. Them city folk?
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:22 AM   #668
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
And not just in the design, let it be said. The operators couldn't have done any better if they had intentionally wanted to blow it up either. It's really stunning how badly they fumbled things.

Even assuming some American operators similarly did every possible thing wrong, a US reactor is not physically capable of blowing up like Chernobyl did.

Fukishima was
Quote:
constructed and run in conjunction with General Electric and Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).[3]

Not as bad as Chernobyl but not a great effort either. I know nuclear can be a lot safer but it's not just because of Chernobyl that nuclear gets a bad name.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:25 AM   #669
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
From your link:

By October 2012, over 1000 disaster-related deaths that were not due to radiation-induced damage or to the earthquake or to the tsunami had been identified by the Reconstruction Agency...

The premature deaths reported in 2012 were mainly related to the following: (1) somatic effects and spiritual fatigue brought on by having to reside in shelters; (2) Transfer trauma – the mental or physical burden of the forced move from their homes for fragile individuals; and (3) delays in obtaining needed medical support because of the enormous destruction caused by the earthquake and tsunami.
Effects (1) and (2) were largely preventable by not evacuating. Effect (3) cannot be disentangled from the effects of the tsunami. The lesson seems to be that overreaction is a greater threat than an accident itself.
Yes, I agree with all that. It's possible that maybe next time people won't die because of what we learned here. But just because their deaths were avoidable does not mean they were avoided. They happened. And in regards to your point 3 I already pointed that out myself and most of my posts have only mentioned the most conservative number I could find from reliable sources.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:31 AM   #670
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This is anti-vaxxer logic.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:33 AM   #671
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
No. From Fukushima FFS.
Calm down. Your comment was in response to a sentence of mine about Chernobyl. If you're going to change the subject you should make that clear rather than blow a fuse.

If you want to claim that deaths during the evacuation are attributable to the power plant, then fine, but how can you, as Zig pointed out, dissociate those from deaths from the rest of the earthquake/tsunami event? The problem is that anti-nuclear interests are folding as much as they can into the categories that they think will support their argument, rather than being more neutral. As I've stated earlier, the death toll from the radiation exposure could be much higher than I suspect, but you have no way to know.

Quote:
Can't tell if you're serious. Unfortunately it's come to that.
At this point you're not even having a discussion. Don't know who pissed in your cereals this morning, but no one here has been impolite towards you.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:43 AM   #672
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
If you want to claim that deaths during the evacuation are attributable to the power plant, then fine, but how can you, as Zig pointed out, dissociate those from deaths from the rest of the earthquake/tsunami event?
Can you read my posts, and Zig's for that matter, and the links I cited and maybe see that this has been answered multiple times?

If I, or my sources, hadn't done this I'd be saying 20K plus as the number of deaths.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:45 AM   #673
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Can you read my posts, and Zig's for that matter, and the links I cited and maybe see that this has been answered multiple times?
How about you quote the relevant parts, then, assuming I missed something?

(And I did mention Zig's post, so your request that I read them is ironic.)
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:46 AM   #674
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
If you want to claim that deaths during the evacuation are attributable to the power plant, then fine, but how can you, as Zig pointed out, dissociate those from deaths from the rest of the earthquake/tsunami event?
Category (3) isn't separable, but categories (1) and (2) are largely separable, since you know who was evacuated because of the nuclear accident and who wasn't.

But even with those deaths, nuclear is still pretty safe. And since they were preventable, odds are that the next accident will have fewer of them, making it even safer.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:48 AM   #675
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Category (3) isn't separable, but categories (1) and (2) are largely separable, since you know who was evacuated because of the nuclear accident and who wasn't.
Granted. However, were the evacuations largely necessary? People tend to react rather... disproportionately to nuclear issues (see the thread about the grand canyon paint bucket exposure from today).
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:49 AM   #676
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There's something rather uncouth about laying those 1,000 corpses at the feet of nuclear power while at the same time spreading the kind of fear mongering that causes the mass panicked evacuations.

"The fact that people got killed running away from this thing I say is so dangerous is proof of how dangerous is!" returns a syntax error when I try to compile it.

And all of this is even assuming it's possible to logically separate the evacuation from Fukashima from the broader evacuations from the Earthquake/Tsunami which... well you can't.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:49 AM   #677
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
How about you quote the relevant parts, then, assuming I missed something?

(And I did mention Zig's post, so your request that I read them is ironic.)
My first post you:

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
More than a thousand dead and more than 100K evacuated.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/informa...-accident.aspx

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukush...ter_casualties


It's difficult to distinguish an exact list of deaths cause by the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident but I can't find any source that attributes less then a thousand deaths to the nuclear accident.
And it's addressed in both links I cited.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:53 AM   #678
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Granted. However, were the evacuations largely necessary?
No, definitely not, that's pretty clear now.

Since the overreaction was caused by the nuclear plant problems, I don't think it's unreasonable to put those deaths in the category of "nuclear". But that risk is still low, and we should keep in mind that it was from an overreaction, not from radiation, and hopefully we won't overreact again next time.
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:58 AM   #679
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
My first post you:

And it's addressed in both links I cited.
What part of "quote the relevant parts" was unclear?
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Old 18th February 2019, 11:59 AM   #680
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
There's something rather uncouth about laying those 1,000 corpses at the feet of nuclear power while at the same time spreading the kind of fear mongering that causes the mass panicked evacuations.

"The fact that people got killed running away from this thing I say is so dangerous is proof of how dangerous is!" returns a syntax error when I try to compile it.
A syntax error? That's one bad compiler you've got there. Mine warns me that it's recursive.
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