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Old 21st February 2020, 12:10 PM   #1
Trebuchet
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Why Trump will be reelected

Why trump will be reelected

1. The Democratic Party. Around 90 years ago Will Rodgers said “I'm not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” Still true.
2. The Republican Party. Absolutely monolithic in its devotion to Trump.
3. Socialism. The current front-runner is a self described socialist. But it's not just Bernie, the R's will use that scare word for any candidate. And a vast number of Americans don't understand what it is. As in the first post of this thread.
4. Toxic Bernie-Bro culture. There are not that many of the toxic ones, but they are very vocal.
5. Fox News. They have no shame and will lie about anything to help the Republican party.
6. Cheating. In addition to the ongoing Republican efforts to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, the Russians are already busy, and Trump is already working hard to cover it up.
7. Impeachment. I think it was a dumb idea. Trump will run on how exonerated he is.
8. Prejudice. Against immigrants, brown people, women, and LGBT people. A lot more folks harbor subtle prejudices than you probably think.
9. Gullibility. Trump fans willingly believe anything he says; anything they here on Fox News or Breitbart. But it's not the fans that are the problem; it's the folks in the middle who are susceptible to the lies when they get repeated often enough.
The USA is totally screwed.
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:17 PM   #2
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Here come the nitpicks:

Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
2. The Republican Party. Absolutely monolithic in its devotion to Trump.
I question whether the devotion is actually monolithic or if it the behavior is monolithic. It probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme if those Republicans who don't show devotion to Trump are berated and punished by the rest. See Romney.

Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
4. Toxic Bernie-Bro culture. There are not that many of the toxic ones, but they are very vocal.
No nitpick. You're not wrong. From my perspective, there is much in common between Trump's supporters and Bernie's.

Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
7. Impeachment. I think it was a dumb idea.
Trump will run on how exonerated he is.
He may run on it, in part, but I'm not convinced it will make a difference in the long run.


Okay, just one nitpick.
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:20 PM   #3
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10. Strategy
In the medium to longer term, the Democratic Party is much better off losing to Trump in 2020 and using this to regain all of Congress in 2022, at which point they Impeach Trump.
If Trump loses, he will just run for the next four years, making any bipartisan effort impossible.
If Trump and the GOP are still there to face the consequences of the Trump policies, and more Trump scandals become undeniable, Dems will crush the GOP in 2024 and might keep both branches of government well beyond 2028.
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:29 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Why trump will be reelected

1. The Democratic Party. Around 90 years ago Will Rodgers said “I'm not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” Still true.
2. The Republican Party. Absolutely monolithic in its devotion to Trump.
3. Socialism. The current front-runner is a self described socialist. But it's not just Bernie, the R's will use that scare word for any candidate. And a vast number of Americans don't understand what it is. As in the first post of this thread.
4. Toxic Bernie-Bro culture. There are not that many of the toxic ones, but they are very vocal.
5. Fox News. They have no shame and will lie about anything to help the Republican party.
6. Cheating. In addition to the ongoing Republican efforts to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, the Russians are already busy, and Trump is already working hard to cover it up.
7. Impeachment. I think it was a dumb idea. Trump will run on how exonerated he is.
8. Prejudice. Against immigrants, brown people, women, and LGBT people. A lot more folks harbor subtle prejudices than you probably think.
9. Gullibility. Trump fans willingly believe anything he says; anything they here on Fox News or Breitbart. But it's not the fans that are the problem; it's the folks in the middle who are susceptible to the lies when they get repeated often enough.
The USA is totally screwed.
Sadly we have a couple of the toxic variety here.
They seem to loath "Centrists" or "Moderates" (I have been insulted by them over this) not seeming to get that the Dems need the votes of the centrists and moderates to win in November.
I also think that Some Bernie Bros are a lot more radical then Bernie himself;I notice some advocate policies that are lot more extreme then anything that Sanders himself has advocated.
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:30 PM   #5
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Or Dems could get off their asses and put an actual candidate in front of the American public that people want to vote for
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:36 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Or Dems could get off their asses and put an actual candidate in front of the American public that people want to vote for
The public want to vote for Trump. Perhaps he could stand for both parties?
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:36 PM   #7
dudalb
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
10. Strategy
In the medium to longer term, the Democratic Party is much better off losing to Trump in 2020 and using this to regain all of Congress in 2022, at which point they Impeach Trump.
If Trump loses, he will just run for the next four years, making any bipartisan effort impossible.
If Trump and the GOP are still there to face the consequences of the Trump policies, and more Trump scandals become undeniable, Dems will crush the GOP in 2024 and might keep both branches of government well beyond 2028.
If we have fair elections in 2022...which if the GOP has control I doubt.
So it might be the appeal to arms after all.
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Old 21st February 2020, 12:46 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
The public want to vote for Trump. Perhaps he could stand for both parties?
He'll be doing that in 2024.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:01 PM   #9
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Yet I hold out hope that enough of his supporters will have changed their minds after seeing this freak show on the hoof that they couldn't pull that lever a second time
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:02 PM   #10
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Yet I hold out hope that enough of his supporters will have changed their minds after seeing this freak show on the hoof that they couldn't pull that lever a second time
if the Dems offered a halfway decent candidate maybe;not the way things stand.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:10 PM   #11
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I think the op hits on a lot of good points, but it missed one.

11. Donald Trump has been president for three years, and nothing really bad has happened.


In my opinion, he's setting us up for bad things in the future with huge borrowing and environmental damage, but in the right here right now, things are ok.

To phrase it differently, "it's the economy, stupid."
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:15 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Or Dems could get off their asses and put an actual candidate in front of the American public that people want to vote for
Like the Republicans have with Trump.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:15 PM   #13
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*kids in cages on the border glance over*
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:17 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
11. Donald Trump has been president for three years, and nothing really bad has happened to me.
FIFY.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:17 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think the op hits on a lot of good points, but it missed one.

11. Donald Trump has been president for three years, and nothing really bad has happened.


In my opinion, he's setting us up for bad things in the future with huge borrowing and environmental damage, but in the right here right now, things are ok.

To phrase it differently, "it's the economy, stupid."
Difficult to run on a platform that highlights trillion dollar deficits while simultaneously promoting free college, universal income, and UHC.

Kind of put ourselves in a corner there.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:21 PM   #16
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"The Democrats won't win because they don't have a decent candidate"

"I think several of the Democrats are fine. They are all polling ahead of Trump in the popular vote and it is too early to draw solid conclusions about that much less EC breakdowns."

"They aren't decent candidates."

"Why?"

"Because they can't beat Trump.

"How to you know they can't beat Trump?"

"Because they aren't decent candidates."

.....
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:26 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
*kids in cages on the border glance over*
*transgender military members look up*

*people with pre-existing conditions give a sidelong glance*

*kids who like less extreme weather patterns gently coughs*

*Puerto Rico collectively rolls their eyes*

*The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe slip and fall over*
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:31 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Why trump will be reelected

4. Toxic Bernie-Bro culture. There are not that many of the toxic ones, but they are very vocal.
6. Cheating. In addition to the ongoing Republican efforts to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, the Russians are already busy, and Trump is already working hard to cover it up.
8. Prejudice. Against immigrants, brown people, women, and LGBT people. A lot more folks harbor subtle prejudices than you probably think.

The USA is totally screwed.
The above 3 are the only significant factors.Dems will basically fall in line behind almost whoever's nominated, Fox News, Lockstep GOP views, etc. have been around since I don't even know when - and the end result has been a strong tilt towards dems - for that matter, had it not been for extraordinary FBI interference, we'd have president Hillary Clinton right now. The major problem with Dolt 45's attempts to aid Russia is that he's so entirely open about it that only people who *want* to deny it, will. The other factor:

The electoral college: more and more, this tilts in favor of republicans winning with a shrinking percentage of the electorate.
The economy: hasn't fallen off a cliff. As long as that holds up, things favor the incumbent. Of course, Dolt 45 being who he is, he could easily jack this up entirely over the summer or something.

(ETA: I'm not making predictions here.)

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Old 21st February 2020, 01:33 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
*transgender military members look up*

*people with pre-existing conditions give a sidelong glance*

*kids who like less extreme weather patterns gently coughs*

*Puerto Rico collectively rolls their eyes*

*The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe slip and fall over*
How many voters in MI PA and WI do those groups represent?
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:38 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
How many voters in MI PA and WI do those groups represent?
You miss the point. Nothing bad has happened to folks like Meadmaker, but that doesn't mean nothing bad has happened. The real question is how many voters, nation wide, have empathy for those groups and others?

ETA: I nearly added, "nothing bad has happened to folks like Meadmaker and myself", but as a gentleman farmer, I got a real hit in corn prices because of Trump's idiotic trade war fantasies.

So, maybe include:

*Midwestern farmers spit on the ground*
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:42 PM   #21
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Possible that corona virus will wreck enough of world and U.S. economy prior to election that Trump has to try to deal with it and looks helpless?
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:44 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by calebprime View Post
Possible that corona virus will wreck enough of world and U.S. economy prior to election that Trump has to try to deal with it and looks helpless?
I think it more likely he'll take it as a reason to actually lock down the border, ports, and airports from international travel, making his rabid fans wet themselves.
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:52 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Why trump will be reelected
While I do think Trump has a good shot at winning again, I think there are reasons to be optimistic... (the 'blue wave' in 2018 showing more voter engagement, Trump's inability to significantly increase his approval ratings, the very thin margin of victory he had last time), although I can understand the pessimism.
Quote:
1. The Democratic Party. Around 90 years ago Will Rodgers said “I'm not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” Still true.
True, the Democratic primaries are turning out to be a dumpster fire, which seems to be coming down to 1 rich candidate who only became a few years ago, and another who only signs up as a Democrat when he wants to use them for his own political goals. But, the republican party is not that much better. Yes, they are largely supportive of Trump on the surface, but of those often say one thing in public and another in private.
Quote:
2. The Republican Party. Absolutely monolithic in its devotion to Trump.
True... Trump does have a high approval rating among Republicans. But part of that is due to the fact that many people have left the party. (Granted, people have also left the Democrats, but not quite as many.)
Quote:
5. Fox News. They have no shame and will lie about anything to help the Republican party.
6. Cheating. In addition to the ongoing Republican efforts to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, the Russians are already busy, and Trump is already working hard to cover it up.
True, these are problems. But, they were also problems in 2016, and Trump barely manage to win. The problems with fox news and russian interference may not improve, but they may not necessarily get any worse.

Plus, you also have Florida, which granted the right to vote to ex-felons. The Republicans attempted to neuter the law, but the courts smacked them down. Not sure how things will play out, but its possible that when its all played out, the ex-felons will be able to vote in November 2020, which greatly boosts the Democrat's chances to take Florida.
Quote:
7. Impeachment. I think it was a dumb idea. Trump will run on how exonerated he is.
Impeachment was a mixed bag... Yes, Trump's approval rating crept up afterwards (and he did use it as part of his fundraising). But, it also seems to have helped galvanize those who are opposed to him. (Remember, there were actual polls that showed a majority of people not only wanted Trump impeached, but actually removed from office too.)

There are 2 ways that impeachment may benefit the democrats:

- Even if it doesn't affect the presidential race, it may affect some of the senate races. I'm thinking of people like Susan Collins, who is struggling in the polls following her vote to confirm Drunky McRapeface.... voting against impeachment (especially with her famous "He learned a lesson... oops no he didn't") may cause her further problems at the polls.

- Trump's response to the impeachment (his efforts to "get revenge") may make some people turn against him.

The other thing to keep in mind that even if impeachment didn't help the democrats (or even hurts them), that doesn't mean that impeachment was the wrong thing to do... its possible that a failure to impeach may have ended up worse for the Democrats (since it might make them seem weak/ineffectual.)
Quote:
8. Prejudice....
9. Gullibility...
Again, I'm not suggesting these aren't problems... but as I mentioned before, they were a factor in 2016 too, and Trump barely won... I don't think the problems have necessarily gotten worse (simply because they were so bad before.)
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Old 21st February 2020, 01:59 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If we have fair elections in 2022...which if the GOP has control I doubt.
So it might be the appeal to arms after all.
Huh? What do you mean “appeal to arms”?
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:00 PM   #25
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Quote:
11. Donald Trump has been president for three years, and nothing really bad has happened to me.
FIFY.
Yes, people are often concerned how things affect them personally.

That could harm Trump. While many people may not have been harmed by his president (i.e. they don't care about him locking kids in cages, or praising Neonazis because it doesn't affect them personally), some people have been harmed... manufacturing is in a recession, millions of people who used to have health care don't anymore. Trump may brag about the economy, but not everyone has benefited. Some of those people that were harmed were former Trump voters. They may not vote for him a second time.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:01 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Huh? What do you mean “appeal to arms”?
Dudalb's been suggesting the possibility of civil war for quite some time. I hope it doesn't come to that.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:02 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
I think it more likely he'll take it as a reason to actually lock down the border, ports, and airports from international travel, making his rabid fans wet themselves.
The whole "Parasite" fuss is unimportant in itself, but shows that Xenophobia is a major part of his appeal.
Of course Trump doing what you say would probably send the US economy into a tailspin, but then Trump is good at convicing his followers to vote agains their own best ecnomic interests.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:04 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Huh? What do you mean “appeal to arms”?
The final appeal against tyranny:armed resistence. The term comes from the American Revolution.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:04 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
FIFY.
A better fix would be "to most voters" or "to anyone who voted for him in 2016."
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:13 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
That could harm Trump. While many people may not have been harmed by his president (i.e. they don't care about him locking kids in cages, or praising Neonazis because it doesn't affect them personally), some people have been harmed... manufacturing is in a recession, millions of people who used to have health care don't anymore. Trump may brag about the economy, but not everyone has benefited. Some of those people that were harmed were former Trump voters. They may not vote for him a second time.

Like the woman in Florida last year who complained that the government shutdown was hurting her and her neighbors instead of "the people he needs to be hurting".

Quote:

A prison employee in Florida who voted for President Trump argued that Trump is to blame for the current government shutdown.

“I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” Crystal Minton told The New York Times in an article published Monday. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.”
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:17 PM   #31
Upchurch
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
A better fix would be "to most voters" or "to anyone who voted for him in 2016."
But that wouldn't be true. Who would it be better for?
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:34 PM   #32
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I think we're up to...

12. From my sig: "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."

Which is different than gullibility. Gullibility is being fooled by Trump in the first place. Refusing to admit to being fooled and, thus, learning from one's mistake is the sunk-cost fallacy.


side note: this wikipedia page popped up as I was reminding myself of the name of the fallacy. Kind of an interesting read.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:42 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
But that wouldn't be true. Who would it be better for?
Are you better off now than you were four years ago?


If you can convince an awful lot of people that the answer is no, a Democrat has a chance of winning. It's a tough sell right now.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:42 PM   #34
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Former Goldman Sachs CEO and lifelong Democrat Lloyd Blankfein told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday that he could have an easier time voting to reelect President Donald Trump than for Sen. Bernie Sanders, should the latter secure the Democratic nomination for president.




Sanders replied: I welcome the hatred of the crooks who destroyed our economy.



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Old 21st February 2020, 02:46 PM   #35
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There are good arguments both ways:

1. Unless something new and worse comes out soon, just about everything horrible thing you could throw at a President has come out:

-He is dangerously mentally ill!
-He has been accused of sexual assault!
-He worked with the Russians!
-He was impeached!

Not much has changed in support/approval.

2. That support/approval would be considered pretty frickin’ bad in any other President. There’s no way he should get re-elected.

Prediction is impossible in this strange new political world we inhabit.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:50 PM   #36
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I'm not going to make absolute statements because Trump, and I feel this is something we most all agree on, is not a factor put into an equation that makes getting the answer easier.

But I'm stealing myself for a Trump win in a few months because I think it's fairly likely. If you put a gun to my head and demanded odds I'd say at least 75%. I'll put the "Unless things change between now and November" modifier in there just for intellectual completeness, but feet to the fire I couldn't even make a guess as to what could happen between now and November that would make a difference. Outside chance of a major economic crisis, maybe that could really shift the numbers but it would have to come on quick to make a difference at this point.

My reasons?

- Everything said about why Trump won't get reelected was true the day before he got elected last time.
- He's had more time to cheat, rig things, and build up support behind the scenes.
- He's gonna be more desperate this time because he knows damn well if he loses there's a good chance he's looking at prison.
- All the Democrats plan are dependent on some invisible wave of non-detectable hypothetical voters just appearing at the polls, all from the Demographics least likely to vote.
- He's the best President ever in the sense that he has done what he was promised he would do and what he was elected to do then every other President in history combined. No President has lead the Executive Branch, commanded the Armed Forces, or represented the United States as well as Trump has trolled the Left. And make no mistake that is what he was elected to do. Trump won 2020 an hour into election night 2016 when the first video of a crying college liberal with pink hair and a "Gender is Fluid" t-shirt was broadcast on CNN.
- The Democrats are playing "3 Dimensional Chess, thinking 8 moves ahead" against someone who's playing "I flipped the board over half an hour ago and now I'm in the next room banging the Chess Competition Judge."
- The Democrats are playing Cause Purity elimination tests while the Republicans are fine having an serial adulterous man child who bangs porn stars and the Evangelicals on their side because they understand having more people on your team counts more then having a coherent philosophy.
- The Democrats just keep (rightfully) accusing Trump of things that they would be ashamed of and expect Trump to react like they would. "You're a racist, you're a sexist, you're homophobic, you're a hypocrite, you're xenophobic..." Yeah he already knows and doesn't care, those are features, not bugs.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:53 PM   #37
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lol, we need more cheese here
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:55 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
- He's the best President ever in the sense that he has done what he was promised he would do and what he was elected to do then every other President in history combined. No President has lead the Executive Branch, commanded the Armed Forces, or represented the United States as well as Trump has trolled the Left. And make no mistake that is what he was elected to do. They will elect him again if they think he can keep doing it and, spoiler, he can.
Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
lol, we need more cheese here

I rest my case.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:56 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Are you better off now than you were four years ago?
Better off how? I already pointed out that I've lost money to Trump's idiocy. Trump's FCC appointee, Ajit Pai, threatened my professional livelihood with the near-removal of network neutrality. I have several friends and family with children who are, so far, cancer survivors. Trump's continued efforts to remove pre-existing conditions protection would likely devastate their futures. And none of this includes the more general crap Trump has done to the country that I mentioned above.

So, no. I am not particularly better off than I was 4 years ago.
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Old 21st February 2020, 02:56 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Sadly we have a couple of the toxic variety here.
They seem to loath "Centrists" or "Moderates" (I have been insulted by them over this) not seeming to get that the Dems need the votes of the centrists and moderates to win in November.
I also think that Some Bernie Bros are a lot more radical then Bernie himself;I notice some advocate policies that are lot more extreme then anything that Sanders himself has advocated.
loathing or criticism?

The latter is often interpreted as the former when it comes to those uppity progressives!
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