[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (3)

[jimbob]

This looks genuine, mobile phone footage from a young Russian officer from graduation as an officer well before the war to near when he was captured.

Some footage of the aftermath of combat and of actual combat, so beware of that.

https://youtu.be/WIZIspwem2s

[jimbob]

And Israel has approved Estonia's transfer of a Blue Spear Anti Surface/Anti Ship missile system to Ukraine.

With a 290km range as a sea skimming missile. Which puts Sevastopol in range

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-706661

[Pixel42]

The Estonian prime minister understands.

https://www.newstatesman.com/interna...er-kaja-kallas

Quote:

Kallas fundamentally rejects the idea that an end to the conflict should be sought at any price. “I think what everybody has to understand is that peace is not an ultimate goal if it means that the aggression pays off,” she says. “What I mean by this is that when you say ‘OK, let it be peace and everybody stays where they are’, it still means that Russia has taken a big part of Ukraine’s territory, Ukraine being a sovereign, independent country. So it means that aggression really pays off.” If this happens, she adds, it will only be a matter of time until Putin acts again: “If Russia is not punished for what they are doing, then there will be a pause of one, two years, and then everything will continue: the atrocities, the human suffering, everything.” She adds that it will not just be Ukraine at risk of an emboldened Putin. “I mean other countries around Russia. Moldova… The imperialistic dream has never died.” Few doubt that Estonia could be a prime target in such a situation.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

The Estonian prime minister understands.

https://www.newstatesman.com/interna...er-kaja-kallas

It seems to me that her idea:

Quote:

Kallas fundamentally rejects the idea that an end to the conflict should be sought at any price.

is reasonable and can be accepted.

But what is wrong (in my opinion) is to reject any kind of substantial concession to the Russians, knowing that such concessions, if well calibrated, could considerably alleviate human suffering.

[Cosmic Yak]

Originally Posted by Michel H

But what is wrong (in my opinion) is to reject any kind of substantial concession to the Russians, knowing that such concessions, if well calibrated, could considerably alleviate human suffering.

If you were a resident of one of the parts of Ukraine that would be split off and taken over by Russia, a Russia that has already said it wants to wipe out the Ukrainians, how would you feel? Do you think allowing the murderous gangsters in the Kremlin to expand their empire would reduce or increase human suffering?

[Pixel42]

Originally Posted by Michel H

But what is wrong (in my opinion) is to reject any kind of substantial concession to the Russians, knowing that such concessions, if well calibrated, could considerably alleviate human suffering.

Except they wouldn't alleviate human suffering, for the reasons she goes on to make clear.

They would actually exacerbate it, not only for the people who would be immediately affected as described by Cosmic Yak but by those in the countries Putin would then subsequently attack in the expectation of similar eventual "concessions" when he agreed to stop.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by jimbob

This looks genuine, mobile phone footage from a young Russian officer from graduation as an officer well before the war to near when he was captured.

Some footage of the aftermath of combat and of actual combat, so beware of that.

https://youtu.be/WIZIspwem2s

I was horrifically fascinated at how he could go from being a doting father to a disgusting animal.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak

If you were a resident of one of the parts of Ukraine that would be split off and taken over by Russia, a Russia that has already said it wants to wipe out the Ukrainians, how would you feel? Do you think allowing the murderous gangsters in the Kremlin to expand their empire would reduce or increase human suffering?

You probably mean a resident of Kherson, for example (a city in the south of Ukraine which is currently occupied by Russia).

It seems that the Russian occupation isn't very popular over there (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherso...ian_occupation), so according to my principle "people first" it seems that Ukrainian rule should in principle be restored there (especially if you consider that Ukrainian is spoken by a small majority in this city, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson#Languages).

But I continue to believe that Ukraine and the West should pay much more attention to the real wishes of Crimeans, for example, and should try to bring the various economic persecutions of Crimea and Russia to an end. You've got to remember that a war can also be economic (through "sanctions" and blockades), and this can cause a lot of pain (and we know that this kind of war wasn't started by the Russians, and we know very well who has a tendency to wage it).

As long as Ukraine and its Western allies will not have addressed this problem seriously and honestly, the idea of their alleged moral superiority will be nothing more than a myth, in my opinion.

I can perhaps add a very reliable reference:

Quote:

Trump Told G7 Leaders That Crimea Is Russian Because Everyone Speaks Russian In Crimea

(in 2018)
(https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-russia-crimea).

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Michel H

It seems to me that her idea:

is reasonable and can be accepted.

But what is wrong (in my opinion) is to reject any kind of substantial concession to the Russians, knowing that such concessions, if well calibrated, could considerably alleviate human suffering.

Concessions will only postpone human suffering. If Russia is allowed to keep any territory it occupies, it will just regroup and refit and try again in a few years. We have a chance here, with sanctions and war to end the threat of Russian expansionism for the next 20 years. We can make Russia a hollow shell.

[EaglePuncher]

Originally Posted by Michel H

You probably mean a resident of Kherson, for example (a city in the south of Ukraine which is currently occupied by Russia).

It seems that the Russian occupation isn't very popular over there (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherso...ian_occupation), so according to my principle "people first" it seems that Ukrainian rule should in principle be restored there (especially if you consider that Ukrainian is spoken by a small majority in this city, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson#Languages).

But I continue to believe that Ukraine and the West should pay much more attention to the real wishes of Crimeans, for example, and should try to bring the various economic persecutions of Crimea and Russia to an end. You've got to remember that a war can also be economic (through "sanctions" and blockades), and this can cause a lot of pain (and we know that this kind of war wasn't started by the Russians, and we know very well who has a tendency to wage it).

As long as Ukraine and its Western allies will not have addressed this problem seriously and honestly, the idea of their alleged moral superiority will be nothing more than a myth, in my opinion.

I can perhaps add a very reliable reference:
(in 2018)
(https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-russia-crimea).

I think Belgium should turn their whole country into Russian territory. I think this would alleviate human suffering a lot.

[Delphic Oracle]

We should do what the hostage taker says to alleviate the suffering of their hostage.

That will surely be the end of it and put a stop to their hostage taking.

To not capitulate to their demands makes us responsible for what happens.

For reals.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by EaglePuncher

I think Belgium should turn their whole country into Russian territory. I think this would alleviate human suffering a lot.

Do you think the local people would enjoy that?

[EaglePuncher]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Do you think the local people would enjoy that?

Absolutely. They want to end the war, don't they?

[Craig4]

It's worth pointing out here that we don't know what the people of Crimea think about the Russian occupation. Nearly all the available information is from Russian sources which come with a presumption of dishonesty.

[Stellafane]

Originally Posted by Michel H

...But what is wrong (in my opinion) is to reject any kind of substantial concession to the Russians, knowing that such concessions, if well calibrated, could considerably alleviate human suffering.

I read this thread because it's a great way to keep abreast of the latest developments in Ukraine. Unfortunately, it appears that the price I pay for this privilege is to be subject to content such as that quoted above. "If you would just give your mugger your wallet, he'd stop beating you and considerably alleviate your human suffering!" is such a stupid and evil argument it's hard to believe that a reasonable, logical, and informed person could seriously offer it. Then again, this has already been pointed out a billion times by others with vastly more patience than I, so I'm fully aware that all I'm doing here is blowing off some largely impotent steam. Still, there's something to be said for that from a mental health aspect, I suppose.

[Cosmic Yak]

Originally Posted by Michel H

Do you think the local people would enjoy that?

Do you think the local people of the Crimea, and whatever other parts of Ukraine you are willing to sacrifice to appease a genocidal warmonger, would enjoy that?
If you think it's OK for others, you should believe it's OK for you. Sacrifice yourself and your own country for peace, instead of callously suggesting from the safety of your armchair that others should suffer.

[Cosmic Yak]

Originally Posted by Michel H

But I continue to believe that Ukraine and the West should pay much more attention to the real wishes of Crimeans, for example,

You appear to believe that you know what those wishes are. On what are you basing this assumption? Please don't cite the referendum, by the way, as no-one except Putin believes it was fair.

Originally Posted by Michel H

and should try to bring the various economic persecutions of Crimea and Russia to an end.

Cart before horse. Russia ends its illegal annexation of Crimea, sanctions stop. Simples.

Originally Posted by Michel H

You've got to remember that a war can also be economic (through "sanctions" and blockades), and this can cause a lot of pain (and we know that this kind of war wasn't started by the Russians, and we know very well who has a tendency to wage it).

I don't recall anyone saying that sanctions are a Russian invention. I am quite convinced, though, that the current sanctions against Russia are a direct result of its invasion of Ukraine. Do you disagree?
Your comment about us knowing who has a tendency to wage economic warfare lacks the detail it needs to be comprehensible. What exactly do you mean, and is this not just an example of whataboutism?

Originally Posted by Michel H

As long as Ukraine and its Western allies will not have addressed this problem seriously and honestly, the idea of their alleged moral superiority will be nothing more than a myth, in my opinion.

Moral superiority is established by opposing aggression and genocide, not by appeasing those perpetrating aggression and genocide. In those terms, by the way, your own moral superiority is clearly questionable.

Originally Posted by Michel H

I can perhaps add a very reliable reference:
(in 2018)
(https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-russia-crimea).

You have to be joking. Michel H: the suffering of the Ukrainian people- about which you clearly don't care- and the suffering of the Russians due to the sanctions- about which you at least claim to care- are not joking matters. Do you have a heart? Compassion? Empathy? Then demonstrate it. Right now, you look like a callous and cowardly monster.

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak

You appear to believe that you know what those wishes are. On what are you basing this assumption? Please don't cite the referendum, by the way, as no-one except Putin believes it was fair.

I already quoted Trump (who was, in my opinion, fairly good, in this instance).

The 2014 referendum is also a good source:

Quote:

According to survey carried out by Pew Research Center in April 2014, the majority of Crimean residents say the referendum was free and fair (91%) and that the government in Kyiv ought to recognize the results of the vote (88%).[147]

According to a poll of the Crimeans by the Ukrainian branch of Germany's biggest market research organization, GfK, on January 16–22, 2015: "Eighty-two percent of those polled said they fully supported Crimea's inclusion in Russia, and another 11 percent expressed partial support. Only 4 percent spoke out against it. ... Fifty-one percent reported their well-being had improved in the past year."

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_C...ferendum_polls)

The governments of Ukraine and of the West don't seem to care much about what the Crimean population thinks; there is probably a "good" (from their point of view) reason for this.

Regarding the effect of sanctions, you might perhaps want to take a look at this:

Quote:

Nine years of United Nations economic sanctions against Iraq have created genocidal conditions and should be eliminated, Denis Halliday, a former UN official, told a Cornell audience last week.

(written in 1999)
(https://news.cornell.edu/stories/199...mount-genocide)

Many people in this thread seem to believe that this war is great (provided that Ukraine is able to fight back with some efficiency), but I disagree. I believe that this war brings a lot of pain (destructions, injuries, increased cost of energy, poverty, food crisis in the world ...), and there is a serious risk for an (even) more serious, international conflict, involving more countries in a "hot" war.

This is why, in order not to be insensitive, I feel it is my duty to point out (in spite of the obvious risks since, on this forum, any invitation to use your brains inevitably generates a wave of furious reactions) that it would be very easy and painless to stop this conflict, and, thereby, to protect future generations a lot better (in my opinion), by
(1) accepting that the Russians are human beings, just like anybody else (human beings who have made a big mistake, in this case), not some kind of despicable animals who must be seriously weakened because "this is the only way". Go try to weaken a major nuclear and economic power, good luck with that (they may not like it).
(2) accepting the idea of territorial concessions in Crimea (cf. Trump above) and in the two Donbass republics.
One could imagine, for example, a major worldwide deal through which Crimea goes officially to Russia (Russia likes it), but the Russian would accept that Kosovo is independent (the West likes it), and Taiwan could take its independence (the West likes it).

Politicians should try to be a little more creative and businesslike, not just vote for more money for weapons and war.

[EaglePuncher]

Originally Posted by Michel H

I already quoted Trump (who was, in my opinion, fairly good, in this instance).

The 2014 referendum is also a good source:

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_C...ferendum_polls)

The governments of Ukraine and of the West don't seem to care much about what the Crimean population thinks; there is probably a "good" (from their point of view) reason for this.

Regarding the effect of sanctions, you might perhaps want to take a look at this:
(written in 1999)
(https://news.cornell.edu/stories/199...mount-genocide)

Many people in this thread seem to believe that this war is great (provided that Ukraine is able to fight back with some efficiency), but I disagree. I believe that this war brings a lot of pain (destructions, injuries, increased cost of energy, poverty, food crisis in the world ...), and there is a serious risk for an (even) more serious, international conflict, involving more countries in a "hot" war.

This is why, in order not to be insensitive, I feel it is my duty to point out (in spite of the obvious risks since, on this forum, any invitation to use your brains inevitably generates a wave of furious reactions) that it would be very easy and painless to stop this conflict, and, thereby, to protect future generations a lot better (in my opinion), by
(1) accepting that the Russians are human beings, just like anybody else (human beings who have made a big mistake, in this case), not some kind of despicable animals who must be seriously weakened because "this is the only way". Go try to weaken a major nuclear and economic power, good luck with that (they may not like it).
(2) accepting the idea of territorial concessions in Crimea (cf. Trump above) and in the two Donbass republics.
One could imagine, for example, a major worldwide deal through which Crimea goes officially to Russia (Russia likes it), but the Russian would accept that Kosovo is independent (the West likes it), and Taiwan could take its independence (the West likes it).

Politicians should try to be a little more creative and businesslike, not just vote for more money for weapons and war.

I still think giving Belgium to Russia is the only way to end this war!

[Myriad]

Originally Posted by Michel H

This is why, in order not to be insensitive, I feel it is my duty to point out (in spite of the obvious risks since, on this forum, any invitation to use your brains inevitably generates a wave of furious reactions) that it would be very easy and painless to stop this conflict, and, thereby, to protect future generations a lot better (in my opinion), by...

Why isn't "...by Russia calling off the invasion and leaving Ukraine" your first suggestion for stopping the conflict? Did the brain you're using not think of that option?

[Captain_Swoop]

Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive in Izyum, according to Oleh Synegubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration.

Speaking in a video posted to telegram, he said that Russian forces were retreating in some directions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

[Cosmic Yak]

Originally Posted by Michel H

The 2014 referendum is also a good source:

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_C...ferendum_polls)

An illegal referendum, conducted at gunpoint? Post-referendum polls, also conducted among a terrorised and brainwashed population?
No, not buying it.
Read the rest of that article, because it supports my stance, not yours.

Originally Posted by Michel H

The governments of Ukraine and of the West don't seem to care much about what the Crimean population thinks; there is probably a "good" (from their point of view) reason for this.

Well, the stated reasons are that an illegal annexation followed by an illegal referendum with highly questionable methods and even more questionable results might not be the best way to decide that fate of the region. Apparently you disagree.

Originally Posted by Michel H

Regarding the effect of sanctions, you might perhaps want to take a look at this:
(written in 1999)
(https://news.cornell.edu/stories/199...mount-genocide)

So it is whataboutism, then. How utterly predictable.
How about citing the effects of sanctions on apartheid South Africa instead, or does that not fit your narrative?

Originally Posted by Michel H

Many people in this thread seem to believe that this war is great (provided that Ukraine is able to fight back with some efficiency), but I disagree. I believe that this war brings a lot of pain (destructions, injuries, increased cost of energy, poverty, food crisis in the world ...), and there is a serious risk for an (even) more serious, international conflict, involving more countries in a "hot" war.

You oppose the non-war approach (sanctions), and also self-defence. Your arguments are inconsistent and morally bankrupt.

Originally Posted by Michel H

This is why, in order not to be insensitive, I feel it is my duty to point out (in spite of the obvious risks since, on this forum, any invitation to use your brains inevitably generates a wave of furious reactions)

Less of the snark, matey. Your posts reek of cowardice, and your arguments lack depth. Pot and kettle springs to mind.

Originally Posted by Michel H

that it would be very easy and painless to stop this conflict, and, thereby, to protect future generations a lot better (in my opinion), by
(1) accepting that the Russians are human beings, just like anybody else (human beings who have made a big mistake, in this case), not some kind of despicable animals who must be seriously weakened because "this is the only way". Go try to weaken a major nuclear and economic power, good luck with that (they may not like it).

Obvious strawman. No-one is saying the Russians aren't human. On the other hand, no-one except you, and possibly CE, is handwaving away the numerous documented atrocities committed by Russian soldiers against civilians.

Originally Posted by Michel H

(2) accepting the idea of territorial concessions in Crimea (cf. Trump above) and in the two Donbass republics.

Asked and answered a dozen times. Appeasing aggressors never works. Can you give an example from history of a successful attempt at this?

Originally Posted by Michel H

One could imagine, for example, a major worldwide deal through which Crimea goes officially to Russia (Russia likes it), but the Russian would accept that Kosovo is independent (the West likes it), and Taiwan could take its independence (the West likes it).

No, one could not. This is a completely unrealistic scenario that highlights your serious ignorance of the world.

Originally Posted by Michel H

Politicians should try to be a little more creative and businesslike, not just vote for more money for weapons and war.

Tell that to Putin. Everyone else is asking him to stop the war he started. All he has to do is withdraw his forces. It really is that simple.

[Captain_Swoop]

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence has said the war with Russia will reach a turning-point in mid-August and is likely to be over by the end of the year.

In an interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov said that "the breaking point will be in the second part of August" and "most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year."

"As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-year-12612320

[Pixel42]

I've mentioned before that an Estonian posts on another board I frequent. I'm just going to copy and paste something he posted for Michel.

Originally Posted by Kribu

I think it just needs to be understood that what we experienced in 1939 was essentially an attempt at "peace is better than war" - we (not just Estonia but the other Baltic states) gave into the Soviet ultimatums, allowing Soviet military bases to be established here in 1939.

It was understood at the time already what that meant - in the sense of losing our sovereignty, one way or another - but, with the then heads of these states taking a serious look at our militaries vs the Soviet military, coming to the conclusion that "peace at the cost of sovereignty" is worth it - that it's not war, at least.

So we didn't fight.

And then the killing began. The slaughter of civilians. The very, very determined execution of the upper echelons of the Baltic states - the military, the politicians, the police, the teachers, the scientists, the businessmen - as well as the random torture and rape and slaughter of random people all over the country. The deportations.

We lost 25% of our population between 1939-1949, and the overwhelming majority of those losses were not war deaths; the biggest population losses other than deportations were the refugee waves in 1944 when it was clear Germans were retreating / likely going to lose, and we'd be left at the "mercy" of Russians again, so a lot of families fled, not from the war but from the upcoming "peace" (and indeed, the rapes, tortures and slaughter continued in all the "liberated" territories).

I suppose a cynical peacemonger would say "but see, 75% of you survived and have lived to tell the tale, and you're here now; isn't a chance at life better than if your forefathers had fought and perished?", but .. it's only a matter of luck and chance that they didn't, anyway. And what we were left with was generations of broken, angry people - people who, yes, lived and loved and laughed during the decades of occupation, because it's what people, especially young people do; they survive and they go on and they live their lives. But there's a bit in each of us that is broken and angry and resentful over it all, and throughout it all, it was never possible to forget our homeland was occupied and ruled by people who despised us, just as we despised them. And we're still going through that now, 30 years later; healing from something like that takes generations (generations born without those burdens).

Is it worth it? Should we have fought? Finland fought (with thousands of Estonian young men, stuck between having to fight for the Soviets or for the Germans, opting to go across the sea and fight with the Finns instead), and for all of the issues of Finlandisation, was, overall, better off. (Not sure that can be said about the parts of Karelia they had to surrender to Russia, though.) These are still questions that people ask and discuss, now, over 80 years later.

[SpitfireIX]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive in Izyum, according to Oleh Synegubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration.

Speaking in a video posted to telegram, he said that Russian forces were retreating in some directions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin starts issuing "no retreat" orders from his bunker.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence has said the war with Russia will reach a turning-point in mid-August and is likely to be over by the end of the year.

In an interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov said that "the breaking point will be in the second part of August" and "most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year."

"As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-year-12612320

This suggests the Ukrainians believe, or want everyone else to believe, that they have the manpower to win the attrition war, as well as the supplies and other support. I wonder what the breaking point would be, for the Russians. Too few troops to continue the fighting? Too few arms to continue fighting with? Too few supplies to keep the fight going? I guess we'll find out in another couple months.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by theprestige

This suggests the Ukrainians believe, or want everyone else to believe, that they have the manpower to win the attrition war, as well as the supplies and other support. I wonder what the breaking point would be, for the Russians. Too few troops to continue the fighting? Too few arms to continue fighting with? Too few supplies to keep the fight going? I guess we'll find out in another couple months.

Likely a combination of those with broken morale added in.

[Delphic Oracle]

Originally Posted by Myriad

Why isn't "...by Russia calling off the invasion and leaving Ukraine" your first suggestion for stopping the conflict? Did the brain you're using not think of that option?

This is the same part of the political spectrum that balks as oppressed minorities getting fed up or labor movements causing disruptions in retail supply chains.

"They only call it a war when we start fighting back"

[sackett]

All the sanctions possible, enforced for years, can never create conditions comparable to just one 500-kilo GP bomb detonating on the roof of a hospital.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

I've mentioned before that an Estonian posts on another board I frequent. I'm just going to copy and paste something he posted for Michel.

Can you link to the board please? - might be worth joining if it aligns with my interests

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by theprestige

This suggests the Ukrainians believe, or want everyone else to believe, that they have the manpower to win the attrition war, as well as the supplies and other support. I wonder what the breaking point would be, for the Russians. Too few troops to continue the fighting? Too few arms to continue fighting with? Too few supplies to keep the fight going? I guess we'll find out in another couple months.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Likely a combination of those with broken morale added in.

I mentioned upthread that Beau of the Fifth Column earlier on in the war pointed out that it wasn't Afghanistan this would be like for Russia... But Vietnam on steroids, with the NVA being far closer in power to the US. By some estimates he's heading for half the casualties the US had in Vietnam in just three months.

[Pixel42]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Can you link to the board please? - might be worth joining if it aligns with my interests

Only if your interests include Doctor Who.

https://gallifreybase.com/gb/

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

Only if your interests include Doctor Who.

https://gallifreybase.com/gb/

Doh - I should have guessed/remembered

[gabeygoat]

I think the idea that language should determine nationality, as Michael H, Putin, and right wing racists say, bizarre. If that was true, almost all of the Americas are a part of Spain. Australia, most of Canada, and the USA are part of the the UK. It’s just a lame argument for Empire

[shemp]

Originally Posted by EaglePuncher

I still think giving Belgium to Russia is the only way to end this war!

Putin will never be appeased! Today Belgium, tomorrow Luxembourg!

[Ryokan]

Originally Posted by gabeygoat

I think the idea that language should determine nationality, as Michael H, Putin, and right wing racists say, bizarre. If that was true, almost all of the Americas are a part of Spain. Australia, most of Canada, and the USA are part of the the UK. It’s just a lame argument for Empire

Not to mention that Zelensky himself is a Russian speaker.

The idea that that means he should be longing to belong to Mother Russia is absurd.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by Michel H

The 2014 referendum is also a good source:

You mean, the garbage referendum, rejected by the UN general assembly? The headline might as well be

"The official result from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was a 97 percent vote for integration of the region into the Russian Federation"... with only 3% in favour of getting beaten up by occupying Russian troops, instead!

There may be some sort of realpolitik reason for ceding Crimea. There may also be an argument for self-determination. I mean, that lies at the heart of this conflict. I think it's possible there are even genuine Russia supporters in Crimea, who should not be totally discounted!

The irony is that the best shot to have a truly free and fair referendum lies with a democratically elected Ukrainian government, not Russia's dictatorial government! So long as we're dealing with fantasy outcomes, how about this:

Russia departs all territories to the 2013 border, with an agreement that referenda for independence will be held in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea within 5 years. That gives time to rebuild institutions (literally, buildings to hold polling stations). The referenda should have international elections observers. And, finally, remaining part of Ukraine as per the 2013 borders, and retaining a democratic governing structure should at least be one of the options!

[Oystein]

Originally Posted by Jimbo07

...
Russia departs all territories to the 2013 border, with an agreement that referenda for independence will be held in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea within 5 years. That gives time to rebuild institutions (literally, buildings to hold polling stations). The referenda should have international elections observers. And, finally, remaining part of Ukraine as per the 2013 borders, and retaining a democratic governing structure should at least be one of the options!

Most importantly: Every citizen of those regions as prior to 2014 must have the right and an easy opportunity to vote - and every goddam Russian intruder who settled there post 2014 NOT.

[eerok]

Clearly Putin's exit strategy for this boondoggle is to declare the newly occupied Ukrainian territory (ie, Mariupol and Kherson) as Russian annexations protected by nuclear triggers. I think his bluff should be called on this, because if it's accepted, he'll keep going with more attacks when he rebuilds his capacity.

This is obviously a mad dog that needs to be put down.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Michel H

You probably mean a resident of Kherson, for example (a city in the south of Ukraine which is currently occupied by Russia).

It seems that the Russian occupation isn't very popular over there (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherso...ian_occupation), so according to my principle "people first" it seems that Ukrainian rule should in principle be restored there (especially if you consider that Ukrainian is spoken by a small majority in this city, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson#Languages).

But I continue to believe that Ukraine and the West should pay much more attention to the real wishes of Crimeans, for example, and should try to bring the various economic persecutions of Crimea and Russia to an end. You've got to remember that a war can also be economic (through "sanctions" and blockades), and this can cause a lot of pain (and we know that this kind of war wasn't started by the Russians, and we know very well who has a tendency to wage it).

As long as Ukraine and its Western allies will not have addressed this problem seriously and honestly, the idea of their alleged moral superiority will be nothing more than a myth, in my opinion.

I can perhaps add a very reliable reference:
(in 2018)
(https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-russia-crimea).

I guess you and Trump still need to hear this…