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Tags Russia issues , Russia-Ukraine relations , Russia-Ukraine war , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin , Volodymyr Zelenskiy

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Old 14th May 2022, 06:11 PM   #3361
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Only if your interests include Doctor Who.

https://gallifreybase.com/gb/
Never heard of it 😁
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Old 14th May 2022, 06:27 PM   #3362
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Old 14th May 2022, 07:42 PM   #3363
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
You mean, the garbage referendum, rejected by the UN general assembly? The headline might as well be

"The official result from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was a 97 percent vote for integration of the region into the Russian Federation"... with only 3% in favour of getting beaten up by occupying Russian troops, instead!

There may be some sort of realpolitik reason for ceding Crimea. There may also be an argument for self-determination. I mean, that lies at the heart of this conflict. I think it's possible there are even genuine Russia supporters in Crimea, who should not be totally discounted!

The irony is that the best shot to have a truly free and fair referendum lies with a democratically elected Ukrainian government, not Russia's dictatorial government! So long as we're dealing with fantasy outcomes, how about this:

Russia departs all territories to the 2013 border, with an agreement that referenda for independence will be held in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea within 5 years. That gives time to rebuild institutions (literally, buildings to hold polling stations). The referenda should have international elections observers. And, finally, remaining part of Ukraine as per the 2013 borders, and retaining a democratic governing structure should at least be one of the options!
To poke at a couple points... I'd say that it's actually pretty understandable and reasonable to believe that a lot of Crimeans and quite possibly many in the other territories that were occupied were in support of joining Russia in 2014. Had they utilized reasonable, democratic means to try to join Russia, that could have been acceptable to the global community, but it should have fundamentally been an internal matter. Peacekeepers and outside neutral watchers, of course, could have been acceptable if need arose. However, the moment that Russia invaded and took control of those territories, that completely removed any chance of "people's will" claims being acceptable. The death, fleeing population, resettlement with Russian invaders, fundamental intimidation and so on utterly remove that avenue. The residents who actually desire for the land to legitimately be part of Russia or to be independent really should be angry at Russia's move, because it is Russia that has made any and all polling and election voting outcomes that result in independence or joining Russia illegitimate. The only result that even could possibly be treated as legitimate by outsiders is remain/rejoin Ukraine. This applies no matter how the polling is held. All that's really left when it comes to means to gaining some form of legitimacy is forcing Ukraine and the world to bend to Russia's whims in one way or another. Even if those lands were restored to Ukraine now, as is, setting some arbitrary date for a future binding referendum would still end up being deeply problematic after Russia's actions.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Most importantly: Every citizen of those regions as prior to 2014 must have the right and an easy opportunity to vote - and every goddam Russian intruder who settled there post 2014 NOT.
The murders and "disappearances," as well as the war casualties in general mess with the numbers even then. The intimidation of those who remained also poses a serious problem. The sheer disruption that Russia actually caused with its invasion renders pretty much any "will of the people" measure to be quite problematic.
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Old 14th May 2022, 08:08 PM   #3364
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I assume Michel would accept the result of a Second Referendum in Crimea once Ukraine controls it again as fully legitimate, right?
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:06 AM   #3365
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
Putin will never be appeased! Today Belgium, tomorrow Luxembourg!
Well, we all want this war to end, if we have to give Europe in whole, we have to do that, right? To alleviate human suffering and all that Maybe put a few billion dollars in cash on top..I heard Vladi loves money.
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Old 15th May 2022, 02:49 AM   #3366
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UK MOD says Russia is likely to have lost a third of the ground combat force it committed in February and the additional loss of critical equipment including bridging equipment and drones, will have exacerbated delays in any Russian progress, restricted its manoeuvres and left its forces vulnerable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61441664
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Old 15th May 2022, 04:53 AM   #3367
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
...
There may be some sort of realpolitik reason for ceding Crimea.
Russia *really* wants Sevastopol to base its Black Sea fleet, if it can ever again afford to build one.

Seriously though Crimea does appear the most Russified part of Ukrainian territory which is unsurprising as it has only been Ukrainian for sixty years or so. Despite the bitter taste of letting the Russians gain anything I suspect the eventual settlement will include Ukraine ceding Crimea.
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Old 15th May 2022, 04:59 AM   #3368
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Finland's president has confirmed his country will formally apply for NATO membership

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
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Old 15th May 2022, 05:28 AM   #3369
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Russia *really* wants Sevastopol to base its Black Sea fleet, if it can ever again afford to build one.

Seriously though Crimea does appear the most Russified part of Ukrainian territory which is unsurprising as it has only been Ukrainian for sixty years or so. Despite the bitter taste of letting the Russians gain anything I suspect the eventual settlement will include Ukraine ceding Crimea.
That problem could be resolved if the Ukrainians just keep sinking Russian warships.
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Old 15th May 2022, 07:02 AM   #3370
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
That problem could be resolved if the Ukrainians just keep sinking Russian warships.
Blue spear will help with that.
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Old 15th May 2022, 08:26 AM   #3371
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Meanwhile several Russian "milbloggers" have criticised the Russian military over their failed river crossing

Paragraph AFTER this one, setting the scene

Quote:
Russian forces made significant tactical mistakes during the attempted large-scale crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna. The Russian command reportedly sent 550 servicemen of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in order to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne from the northwest.[3] Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russian pontoon bridges and tightly-concentrated Russian troops and equipment around them on May 11, which reportedly resulted in 485 casualties and damages to over 80 pieces of equipment.[4] The 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade had previously attempted a river crossing (over the Desna River in Chernihiv Oblast on March 8) without suffering such setbacks.[5] The unit’s command and staff may have failed to recognize the dangers that Ukraine’s improving artillery capabilities posed two months later, or may simply have been incompetent or unable to control their troops.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...claims.%5B9%5D
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Old 15th May 2022, 08:54 AM   #3372
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Send in 550 men, get 485 casualties is near inexpressibly calamitous.

Preying on my mind is the thought "When will they learn?". Seriously, they're not going to play Wile E Coyote to Ukraine's Roadrunner forever. Even the most slow witted command has to stir into considering what does and doesn't work eventually.
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Old 15th May 2022, 09:04 AM   #3373
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Send in 550 men, get 485 casualties is near inexpressibly calamitous.

Preying on my mind is the thought "When will they learn?". Seriously, they're not going to play Wile E Coyote to Ukraine's Roadrunner forever. Even the most slow witted command has to stir into considering what does and doesn't work eventually.
If you are a general and you get imprisoned for not ordering a futile attack, you'd order it even if you know it's going to fail.
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Old 15th May 2022, 09:06 AM   #3374
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Send in 550 men, get 485 casualties is near inexpressibly calamitous.

Preying on my mind is the thought "When will they learn?". Seriously, they're not going to play Wile E Coyote to Ukraine's Roadrunner forever. Even the most slow witted command has to stir into considering what does and doesn't work eventually.
Easier said than done when it seems the command structure has been completely politicized. Basically there is no guarantee that there are any competent leaders able to take command of operations, or if there are that the can overcome the institutional flaws built up by years, if not decades, of corruption, poor doctrine and equipment whose capabilities have been over stated while being poorly maintained.
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Old 15th May 2022, 09:28 AM   #3375
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
"If you would just give your mugger your wallet, he'd stop beating you and considerably alleviate your human suffering!" is such a stupid and evil argument it's hard to believe that a reasonable, logical, and informed person could seriously offer it.
Although I agree, I'd like to add that, so far as I know, no reasonable, logical, and informed person has seriously offered that stupid and evil argument in this thread.
ETA: Which is not to say that stupid and evil argument has not been offered in this thread.

Last edited by W.D.Clinger; 15th May 2022 at 09:31 AM. Reason: added ETA
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Old 15th May 2022, 09:54 AM   #3376
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Originally Posted by Stellafane View Post
I read this thread because it's a great way to keep abreast of the latest developments in Ukraine. Unfortunately, it appears that the price I pay for this privilege is to be subject to content such as that quoted above. "If you would just give your mugger your wallet, he'd stop beating you and considerably alleviate your human suffering!" is such a stupid and evil argument it's hard to believe that a reasonable, logical, and informed person could seriously offer it. Then again, this has already been pointed out a billion times by others with vastly more patience than I, so I'm fully aware that all I'm doing here is blowing off some largely impotent steam. Still, there's something to be said for that from a mental health aspect, I suppose.
I think it's worth trying to drive home that point again and again. Resorting to compliance doesn't take into account the very distinct possibility that the mugger wants you to hand over your wallet because they're too lazy to bend over and dig it out of dead bodys pockets if they kill you first.
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Old 15th May 2022, 10:37 AM   #3377
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
I think it's worth trying to drive home that point again and again. Resorting to compliance doesn't take into account the very distinct possibility that the mugger wants you to hand over your wallet because they're too lazy to bend over and dig it out of dead bodys pockets if they kill you first.
With that said, it's probably worth being clear that handing over your valuables to an armed mugger without struggle actually is the best course of action under most normal conditions.

It's also worth being clear that the reasons for that don't scale up very well to address Ukraine's situation, if they're even applicable. Some of the most important underlying premises are not, after all. For example, handing over your valuables to a particular mugger will generally be a one time event and they're usually going to be motivated more out of desperation for your property than any particular desire to actually hurt you. For Ukraine, what they face is ongoing harm and a rather clearly expressed desire to kill Ukraine in the end, so major parts of the reasons that make handing over one's valuables to an armed mugger the best choice are already just not applicable.
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Old 15th May 2022, 11:07 AM   #3378
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Nato's secretary general says Russia's war in Ukraine is not going to plan and that its attempt to capture the eastern Donbas region has "stalled".
He also said Ukraine could win the conflict.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61457622
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Old 15th May 2022, 11:56 AM   #3379
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Easier said than done when it seems the command structure has been completely politicized. Basically there is no guarantee that there are any competent leaders able to take command of operations, or if there are that the can overcome the institutional flaws built up by years, if not decades, of corruption, poor doctrine and equipment whose capabilities have been over stated while being poorly maintained.
Russia went through that before after purging its officer class in the '30s and having to learn the hard way that political purity wins no battles. Faced with an existential threat they eventually got good enough to stop losing. How confident can we be they won't get their **** together this time?

There's a whole internet out there eager to tell them what they're doing wrong (not all of whom will be idiots). I'm reminded of the BBC reporting during the Falklands war that Argentine bombs had failed to detonate when they hit British ships because the fusing wasn't compatible with the dropping method. Telling the folks back home that the enemy aren't inflicting the damage they intended is cheering propaganda. Telling the enemy what to do to fix that is amazingly stupid.
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Old 15th May 2022, 12:17 PM   #3380
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Russia went through that before after purging its officer class in the '30s and having to learn the hard way that political purity wins no battles. Faced with an existential threat they eventually got good enough to stop losing. How confident can we be they won't get their **** together this time?

There's a whole internet out there eager to tell them what they're doing wrong (not all of whom will be idiots). I'm reminded of the BBC reporting during the Falklands war that Argentine bombs had failed to detonate when they hit British ships because the fusing wasn't compatible with the dropping method. Telling the folks back home that the enemy aren't inflicting the damage they intended is cheering propaganda. Telling the enemy what to do to fix that is amazingly stupid.
The thing is, to fix the main problem the Russian army would need to be re-trained, re-stocked and not led by corrupt kleptocrats.
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Old 15th May 2022, 12:31 PM   #3381
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Russia went through that before after purging its officer class in the '30s and having to learn the hard way that political purity wins no battles. Faced with an existential threat they eventually got good enough to stop losing. How confident can we be they won't get their **** together this time?

There's a whole internet out there eager to tell them what they're doing wrong (not all of whom will be idiots). I'm reminded of the BBC reporting during the Falklands war that Argentine bombs had failed to detonate when they hit British ships because the fusing wasn't compatible with the dropping method. Telling the folks back home that the enemy aren't inflicting the damage they intended is cheering propaganda. Telling the enemy what to do to fix that is amazingly stupid.
Indeed, and I was reminded of the difference between the Red Army of early 1941 and early 1943.

But against that you have the loss in morale and evasion of conscription due to that.

Russia doesn't have the manpower or relative economic resources the USSR had in 1942. 30% casualties in 2 1/2 months and putting the degraded units into combat with hardly any rest is not a recipe for happy or effective troops.

And it is not an existential war for Russia. Maybe for Putin, but the conscripts will know that Russia isn't threatened by Ukraine.
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Old 15th May 2022, 12:49 PM   #3382
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General conscription might be the last straw actually. Last straw for hundreds of thousands of men ..
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Old 15th May 2022, 12:56 PM   #3383
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Russia went through that before after purging its officer class in the '30s and having to learn the hard way that political purity wins no battles. Faced with an existential threat they eventually got good enough to stop losing. How confident can we be they won't get their **** together this time?

There's a whole internet out there eager to tell them what they're doing wrong (not all of whom will be idiots). I'm reminded of the BBC reporting during the Falklands war that Argentine bombs had failed to detonate when they hit British ships because the fusing wasn't compatible with the dropping method. Telling the folks back home that the enemy aren't inflicting the damage they intended is cheering propaganda. Telling the enemy what to do to fix that is amazingly stupid.
But there was no way to fix the fuses on the bombs so it didn't make any difference. the Argentinians knew they were flying too low to make them work.
If they went any higher the Sea Darts, Seacats and shore based Javelins would have knocked them out of the sky at an even greater rate.
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:17 PM   #3384
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But there was no way to fix the fuses on the bombs so it didn't make any difference. the Argentinians knew they were flying too low to make them work.
If they went any higher the Sea Darts, Seacats and shore based Javelins would have knocked them out of the sky at an even greater rate.

Rapiers?
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:23 PM   #3385
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
But there was no way to fix the fuses on the bombs so it didn't make any difference. the Argentinians knew they were flying too low to make them work.
If they went any higher the Sea Darts, Seacats and shore based Javelins would have knocked them out of the sky at an even greater rate.
Fair enough, but if they had resorted to trying to toss their bombs from further out, even if it was much more dangerous to stick their heads over the metaphorical parapet, the trade of a few Skyhawks for the loss of a ship is not one I think the British would have been happy with. So I would still be shocked to learn the MOD had okayed the information being broadcast.

We're now in the era of such potentially useful information being unthinkingly released by careless troops directly in real time, so the genie is well out of that bottle.
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:26 PM   #3386
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Rapiers?
RAF missile systems put ashore at San Carlos Water "Bomb Alley"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapier_(missile)
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:28 PM   #3387
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Fair enough, but if they had resorted to trying to toss their bombs from further out, even if it was much more dangerous to stick their heads over the metaphorical parapet, the trade of a few Skyhawks for the loss of a ship is not one I think the British would have been happy with. So I would still be shocked to learn the MOD had okayed the information being broadcast.

We're now in the era of such potentially useful information being unthinkingly released by careless troops directly in real time, so the genie is well out of that bottle.
So the BBC are traitors leaking secrets to the detriment of the war?

Of course the MOD cleared it or it would never have been known, who would have told them?

If the Skyhawks had been any higher they would never have had chance to 'toss' anything.
they only got the hits they did because they were attacking moored ships close inshore.

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Old 15th May 2022, 01:33 PM   #3388
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
RAF missile systems put ashore at San Carlos Water "Bomb Alley"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapier_(missile)
Yes, you typed "Javelins"

Which sounded like a brainfart to me because it's a similar sort of name, one being a spear and the other a sword, and the Javelin being the one mentioned a lot in this thread.
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:38 PM   #3389
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Yes, you typed "Javelins"

Which sounded like a brainfart to me because it's a similar sort of name, one being a spear and the other a sword, and the Javelin being the one mentioned a lot in this thread.
Did I, sorry I meant Rapier lol
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:48 PM   #3390
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
So the BBC are traitors leaking secrets to the detriment of the war?

Of course the MOD cleared it or it would never have been known, who would have told them?

If the Skyhawks had been any higher they would never have had chance to 'toss' anything.
they only got the hits they did because they were attacking moored ships close inshore.
LOL no I'm not saying the BBC are traitors (I've worked for them for over 30 years) but they had a number of embedded reporters and I believed this was one screwup which just evaded the censor's blue pencil. I'm just going from memory and I was at school at the time, not down there as I gather you were.
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Old 15th May 2022, 01:56 PM   #3391
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The pilots were braver than me. I am glad I was on a ship shooting at them rather than in one of the aircraft flying in to it.
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Old 15th May 2022, 03:02 PM   #3392
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I know this source is pretty much Ukrainian propaganda, but it's nice to see a big gun in action.

US Embassy: Nearly all M777 howitzer have arrived on front lines in eastern Ukraine. Video: Ukrainian Artillery unit perform "shoot and scoot" artillery strike. (reddit.com)
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Old 15th May 2022, 03:05 PM   #3393
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
The thing is, to fix the main problem the Russian army would need to be re-trained, re-stocked and not led by corrupt kleptocrats.
Even then, the fundamental issues that arise from Russia's massive wealth gap, power disparities, and general internal discrimination/tribalism would still lead to serious problems. Until the roots of the problems are addressed, it's unlikely that reforms would be able to actually stick. It's hard to not end up led by corrupt kleptocrats when the system incentivizes theft at every level.
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Old 15th May 2022, 03:55 PM   #3394
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Zelensky is replacing Yuri Halushkin as commander of the Territorial Defense Forces (local defense militia). The new commander is Igor Tantsyura, former second-in-command of the Ukrainian Ground Forces & former chief of staff of Ukrainian forces in Donbass.

No word on why. This is mostly being reported by pro-Russian accounts but seems legit. I wonder if Ukraine is looking at transitioning the TDF forces to be a more active and regular part of the wartime military and felt that a different commander was the way to do that. Ukraine has only recently approved the use of TDF forces outside of the Oblasts they reside in.

The pro-Russian tankies are claiming this is a sign of failure, to cover for extreme Ukrainian casualties in Donbass (they like to make claims of mass surrender, desertion, and mutiny among Ukr forces). I suppose that's possible, but I would guess instead that it is a means to enlarge the Ukrainian military by adding in these forces, many of which have already seen two months of combat.
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Old 16th May 2022, 12:43 AM   #3395
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM42bTig3xE


BBC estimates 1/3 of the forces used at the start of the invasion.
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Old 16th May 2022, 12:46 AM   #3396
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM42bTig3xE


BBC estimates 1/3 of the forces used at the start of the invasion.
Reported equipment losses are approaching the equivalent of all of the initial invasion equipment for some kinds of equipment, as well, last I saw. The only category of equipment not seriously impacted was Russia's ships.
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Old 16th May 2022, 01:59 AM   #3397
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The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian troops near Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.

Quote:
The Ukrainian defence ministry has published a video purportedly showing a number of soldiers from a territorial defence brigade at an unspecified location on the frontier.

The governor of the Kharkiv region, Oleh Sinegubov, said troops had restored a sign marking the border.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I guess the first question is whether this is an accurate report, the second is whether it's just a stunt (with a recon unit just making a dash for the border) and the third could be that Kharkiv is another example of a "masterful" Russian feint - Kyiv being another - and Russian troops are retiring in good order to regroup and focus on their primary, de-Nazification, objectives in Donbas.

I would prefer that there was no fighting and the Russians would simply leave Ukraine but given that's just a fantasy, it's encouraging to see Ukraine counter-attacking.

There are reports of BTGs being withdrawn from around Izyum to protect Russian supply lines against attack from Ukrainian units advancing eastwards from Kharkiv. There are also reports of the Russians moving some of their logistics from Belgorod to more easily protected sites, further east with less exposed supply lines into Donbas. If accurate, this could signal another "refocus" on Donbas and mean an even more difficult period for the Ukrainian defences there.
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Old 16th May 2022, 02:07 AM   #3398
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian troops near Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

I guess the first question is whether this is an accurate report, the second is whether it's just a stunt (with a recon unit just making a dash for the border) and the third could be that Kharkiv is another example of a "masterful" Russian feint - Kyiv being another - and Russian troops are retiring in good order to regroup and focus on their primary, de-Nazification, objectives in Donbas.

I would prefer that there was no fighting and the Russians would simply leave Ukraine but given that's just a fantasy, it's encouraging to see Ukraine counter-attacking.

There are reports of BTGs being withdrawn from around Izyum to protect Russian supply lines against attack from Ukrainian units advancing eastwards from Kharkiv. There are also reports of the Russians moving some of their logistics from Belgorod to more easily protected sites, further east with less exposed supply lines into Donbas. If accurate, this could signal another "refocus" on Donbas and mean an even more difficult period for the Ukrainian defences there.
They were "within 10km" a few days ago, and "2 miles" yesterday.

Meanwhile it looks as though Russia is sending voluntary call up papers to all men of military age.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/statu...47831525199872

photos in the thread from other contributors.
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Old 16th May 2022, 02:20 AM   #3399
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
They were "within 10km" a few days ago, and "2 miles" yesterday.
If those reports are reliable and accurate then that's great news IMO.

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Meanwhile it looks as though Russia is sending voluntary call up papers to all men of military age.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/statu...47831525199872

photos in the thread from other contributors.
80%+ of Russians are reportedly in favour of the war in Ukraine and see it as a defensive war to protect the Russian motherland against NATO aggression. The voluntary call up papers could end up with a huge response.

Then again, a large number of volunteers with little or no recent military expertise may be the wrong thing for a military with no NCO corps, huge equipment supply issues and myriad logistical problems. An extra 2 million fighting men aren't an asset if you cannot equip them, transport them, feed them and if there's no way to deploy them effectively when they are in theatre.

Maybe they're just trying to sicken the Ukrainians into surrender and that they'll no longer tolerate the wholesale slaughter of ill-trained, ill-equipped, poorly trained and badly led Russians. If that's the case, I wouldn't bet on it.
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Old 16th May 2022, 02:30 AM   #3400
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM42bTig3xE


BBC estimates 1/3 of the forces used at the start of the invasion.
Well, UK Ministry OF Defence does.
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