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Old 13th March 2019, 12:06 AM   #4081
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Ok, assuming this falls and they vote to delay?

Does that actually mean it is delayed?

Can either party (i.e. UK or EU) unilaterally change the end date? Can they bilaterally?

I recall some clarification on the UK being able to cancel the process, but nothing about pausing it (ETA: or that a pause would only be considered if the EU was given reason to believe it would do any good).
You're quite right, here's how it goes:

UK is able to revoke A50 notification until Friday, 29th March, 22:59:59 GMT unilaterarily. This means project Brexit is abandoned and UK does not leave the EU at all, EU requires the withdrawal to be made in good faith so simply invoking it again won't fly. Short of another referendum to restart the process Brexit would have to be burried.

To extend the period by a single second however all 27 remaining member states must agree. Any one of them may say "no" without so much as giving a reason or explanation if they want and the date remains unchanged. Forget Germany and Poland, Cyprus or Malta could do it. It is therefore expected the 27 will want to extract concessions from UK in exchange for any extension.

Given the bad reputation UK has rapped up in the past three years or so it is also quite unlikely they're keen to minimize the damage to the UK. EU countries can be expected to work together to limit the damage to their members - Belgium, Netherlands and above all, Ireland are at the front - but if those three say nothing is to be gained by an extension and UK won't have anything resembling a plan to give an extension, they might just let the UK eat cake.

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Old 13th March 2019, 12:50 AM   #4082
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Seems in a no deal scenario we will have a unilateral decision to cut tariffs on imports. Good for UK consumers but not great for UK businesses who will face an uneven playing field. Cheap imports vs high tariffs on our exports to the EU and row.
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Old 13th March 2019, 01:10 AM   #4083
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Seems in a no deal scenario we will have a unilateral decision to cut tariffs on imports. Good for UK consumers but not great for UK businesses who will face an uneven playing field. Cheap imports vs high tariffs on our exports to the EU and row.
Plus nothing to offer in exchange for dropping the said tariffs.

EU might be willing to negotiate a mutually beneficial trade deal with the UK, but after these past couple of months ... nah. Eventually UK will get back in the EU, probably as an external observer, part of the customs union and internal market, but with no ability to directly influence either and that will be that.

A colony in all but name, the Brexitard press will be shockingly accurate, but also impotent.

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Old 13th March 2019, 01:27 AM   #4084
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Seems in a no deal scenario we will have a unilateral decision to cut tariffs on imports. Good for UK consumers but not great for UK businesses who will face an uneven playing field. Cheap imports vs high tariffs on our exports to the EU and row.
....and of course UK consumers are also employees of UK-based companies who may be feeling the squeeze as a result of the tariffs, retirees relying fully or in part on the state pension (which may be squeezed if a hard Brexit ravages the public finances) or employed in the service sector which gets no protection in the event of a hard Brexit.

I note that the consensus on the BBC this morning is that the "solution" to the issue of the border in Ireland is in effect an "honesty box". Can't imagine that wizard scheme ever coming unraveled
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Old 13th March 2019, 02:29 AM   #4085
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A quick question to those more knowledgable about the inner workings of the British parliament than me - could there be a majority for the Irish backstop to apply to Northern Ireland only?

DUP would oppose come hell or high water of course, but if the Tories can be whipped to vote in favor, might there be five (or so) Labour rebels to vote for the deal?

The government would fall immediately thereafter and there would be a new general election - but also a Brexit with a deal. UK would then sort out the easy part (lolz) of the future arrangements with a new government, whomever it might be. Is that possible, at least in theory?

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Old 13th March 2019, 02:48 AM   #4086
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
A quick question to those more knowledgable about the inner workings of the British parliament than me - could there be a majority for the Irish backstop to apply to Northern Ireland only?

DUP would oppose come hell or high water of course, but if the Tories can be whipped to vote in favor, might there be five (or so) Labour rebels to vote for the deal?

The government would fall immediately thereafter and there would be a new general election - but also a Brexit with a deal. UK would then sort out the easy part (lolz) of the future arrangements with a new government, whomever it might be. Is that possible, at least in theory?

McHrozni
IMO doubtful.

The ERG (arch-Brexiteers) would also be utterly opposed to any form of backstop for any part of the UK so the number of Labour "rebels" would have to be in the tens to offset the ERG. There are also a handful of Remoaner Tories who would also oppose the backstop - but for different reasons.
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Old 13th March 2019, 02:54 AM   #4087
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
A quick question to those more knowledgable about the inner workings of the British parliament than me - could there be a majority for the Irish backstop to apply to Northern Ireland only?
I would imagine the DUP and the overwhelming majority of the Conservative Party would vote against anything that had any kind of provision applying to Northern Ireland only. It would require the effective border to be shifted from between NI and the Republic, to the Irish Sea, leaving all of Ireland on one side of it and the rest of the UK on the other side. The DUP would, probably quite literally, fight to the death against any such idea, and preserving the Union is a core Conservative value.

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Old 13th March 2019, 02:56 AM   #4088
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO doubtful.

The ERG (arch-Brexiteers) would also be utterly opposed to any form of backstop for any part of the UK so the number of Labour "rebels" would have to be in the tens to offset the ERG. There are also a handful of Remoaner Tories who would also oppose the backstop - but for different reasons.
Aha, this is anything but unexpected. What about from the technical standpoint? I imagine DUP would withdraw support for the government immediately, could the vote even be held under such circumstance?

The question has two components, one is how fesiable is the vote to pass, which you answered rather well, but I'm also interested in the procedural component. Can such a vote be held at all?

Thanks

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Old 13th March 2019, 02:57 AM   #4089
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Originally Posted by Diablo View Post
Good point.
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I really donít think even the Tories would vote for a no-deal. Rather it would be likely to happen by default. A lot of Tories would be against it. Similarly the number of Labour MPs who vote for no-deal would be small.
Unfortunately we are looking at a real world "Trolley Problem" and people will passively allow far worse avoidable outcomes than they would actively cause.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:24 AM   #4090
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
No there is a shedload of legislation that needs to be passed to make a functioning country on March 29th. Otherwise we are not a member of the EU but still legally embroiled in it and all its institutions or we have no laws at all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47063473
Yes and that clearly will not happen because as they have made clear they voted against a no deal brexit. They just won't do anything to prevent it. They will blame the EU for there being no more cake after they ate it, that has always been a winning strategy after all.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:25 AM   #4091
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I think that tomorrow no deal will be voted down and we will have to ask for a delay.
And then the delay will have nothing substantive to give the EU any reason to extend this stupidity. They will vote it down and it becomes all the EU's fault thus giving parliament what they want.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:28 AM   #4092
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The government would fall immediately thereafter and there would be a new general election - but also a Brexit with a deal. UK would then sort out the easy part (lolz) of the future arrangements with a new government, whomever it might be. Is that possible, at least in theory?
I think you missed that Parliament would not only have to accept that deal, but also pass the legislation to put it into effect, which would be stopped by the fall of the government.

There would probably be a delay in Brexit, and much constitutional fun if the new Parliament disagreed with what the old one had done.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:30 AM   #4093
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And then the delay will have nothing substantive to give the EU any reason to extend this stupidity. They will vote it down and it becomes all the EU's fault thus giving parliament what they want.
Or the EU will make any delay conditional on either a General Election or a new referendum, then if we end up not leaving the EU at all, that also becomes the EU's fault. That might be the ideal scenario, of course, because it restores the Brexiteers' power base while not actually buggering up our economy totally for a generation, and we can carry on being more or less OK but bitching about how much better it would have been if some grey shadowy power had let us do what we want, which is after all the only truly British way to behave.

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Old 13th March 2019, 03:30 AM   #4094
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
You're quite right, here's how it goes:

UK is able to revoke A50 notification until Friday, 29th March, 22:59:59 GMT unilaterarily. This means project Brexit is abandoned and UK does not leave the EU at all, EU requires the withdrawal to be made in good faith so simply invoking it again won't fly. Short of another referendum to restart the process Brexit would have to be burried.

To extend the period by a single second however all 27 remaining member states must agree. Any one of them may say "no" without so much as giving a reason or explanation if they want and the date remains unchanged. Forget Germany and Poland, Cyprus or Malta could do it. It is therefore expected the 27 will want to extract concessions from UK in exchange for any extension.

Given the bad reputation UK has rapped up in the past three years or so it is also quite unlikely they're keen to minimize the damage to the UK. EU countries can be expected to work together to limit the damage to their members - Belgium, Netherlands and above all, Ireland are at the front - but if those three say nothing is to be gained by an extension and UK won't have anything resembling a plan to give an extension, they might just let the UK eat cake.

McHrozni
You have this crazy idea that the good of the country instead of personal gain and avoiding blame is a motivator in any of this.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:31 AM   #4095
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Unfortunately we are looking at a real world "Trolley Problem" and people will passively allow far worse avoidable outcomes than they would actively cause.
Hence the lack of majority in Parliament for any conclusive result; if all the options look bad, voting for the least worse doesn't gain you anything politically, as you will still have voted for a bad option.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:33 AM   #4096
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
You're mad over there. You all do know that, don't you?
I can see why you'd think that, in reality I think we're divided between the mad and the disparing, unfortunately the mad are the minority with the influence. Personally I feel like I do when I'm in a plane that hits heavy turbulence, obviously I'm concerned that things are going to go horribly wrong but I'm totally unable to effect the outcome so a fatalistic calm descends.

Perhaps you'll change your mind and come visit again sooner than you think (and if you do can you bring some food and medicine?).
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:41 AM   #4097
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
UK is able to revoke A50 notification until Friday, 29th March, 22:59:59 GMT unilaterarily. This means project Brexit is abandoned and UK does not leave the EU at all,...<snip>
If the UK stays, I would guess that the others in the EU would not welcome the UK back with open arms. I would expect some hard feelings and a sense that the UK isn't really one of us no matter what the agreements says.
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Old 13th March 2019, 03:47 AM   #4098
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
If the UK stays, I would guess that the others in the EU would not welcome the UK back with open arms. I would expect some hard feelings and a sense that the UK isn't really one of us no matter what the agreements says.
IMO the UK has never really been "one of us" and has always demanded special treatment and fought tooth and nail to avoid any and all obligations of EU membership. We're the diner complaining about the quality of the seafood and price of the buffet while at the same time filling our pockets with shrimp.
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Old 13th March 2019, 04:08 AM   #4099
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
I think you missed that Parliament would not only have to accept that deal, but also pass the legislation to put it into effect, which would be stopped by the fall of the government.

There would probably be a delay in Brexit, and much constitutional fun if the new Parliament disagreed with what the old one had done.
Aha. So the answer seems to be "no, it is not". Thanks

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Old 13th March 2019, 04:10 AM   #4100
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
If the UK stays, I would guess that the others in the EU would not welcome the UK back with open arms. I would expect some hard feelings and a sense that the UK isn't really one of us no matter what the agreements says.
Definitely, but we'd have no choice in the matter at this time. UK can withdraw up to the last second or so and we can't do anything about it, except maybe open the door for the mailman very slowly to get across the line.

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Old 13th March 2019, 04:17 AM   #4101
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Hence the lack of majority in Parliament for any conclusive result; if all the options look bad, voting for the least worse doesn't gain you anything politically, as you will still have voted for a bad option.
There is a way out for Theresa May yet. Assuming the vote today for a no deal Brexit fails to pass and the Parliament rejects an extension tommorow, she can also ask for a vote to end project Brexit altogether and withdraw the notification.

In her case I'd do just that and let my party vote freely, without the whip. If they vote aye, they own the no deal Brexit. If they vote no, they own the no deal Brexit. They own it, not you. The same goes for Corbyn, if he whips to stop Brexit and it wins he owns that too, the same for no deal Brexit. A free vote may be his best call too, to wash his hands of the blood he spent spilling for the better part of the past three years.

History will judge her more gently in that scenario, regardless of what happens after. That's probably her sole concern at this point, or at least it should be. No one wants her job because it's poisoned, but after the crucial Brexit descision it's time to pick up the pieces your way.

My pet CT that she's been trying to stop the madness might yet be vindicated.

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Old 13th March 2019, 04:53 AM   #4102
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO the UK has never really been "one of us" and has always demanded special treatment and fought tooth and nail to avoid any and all obligations of EU membership. We're the diner complaining about the quality of the seafood and price of the buffet while at the same time filling our pockets with shrimp.
And we're currently arguing with ourselves about whether to pay the bill and leave in a huff, or just do a runner.

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Old 13th March 2019, 05:25 AM   #4103
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There is a way out for Theresa May yet. Assuming the vote today for a no deal Brexit fails to pass and the Parliament rejects an extension tommorow, she can also ask for a vote to end project Brexit altogether and withdraw the notification.
She wouldn't do this. 76% of Conservative members would prefer a no-deal to a no-Brexit and Theresa May herself has repeatedly indicated that though she would prefer her deal, no-deal is acceptable.

Yet another reason why I think no-deal is a nailed-on certainty

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
In her case I'd do just that and let my party vote freely, without the whip. If they vote aye, they own the no deal Brexit. If they vote no, they own the no deal Brexit. They own it, not you. The same goes for Corbyn, if he whips to stop Brexit and it wins he owns that too, the same for no deal Brexit. A free vote may be his best call too, to wash his hands of the blood he spent spilling for the better part of the past three years.
You would, but that's because you're being pragmatic and don't have to bow to the desires of party members, key backers and noisy MPs.

IMO Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't allow a free vote either. He sees Brexit as the penultimate piece of the jigsaw (the last is him being swept to power on a tidal wave of support ) which will inevitably lead to the establishing of a workers' utopia

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
History will judge her more gently in that scenario, regardless of what happens after. That's probably her sole concern at this point, or at least it should be. No one wants her job because it's poisoned, but after the crucial Brexit descision it's time to pick up the pieces your way.
I think you may have misread the situation. She will be proud to have led the UK out of the EU on whatever terms but she does want to be PM as long as possible

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
My pet CT that she's been trying to stop the madness might yet be vindicated.

McHrozni
I respectfully disagree, she desperately wants Brexit and a no-deal is, in her view, a perfectly acceptable second prize .
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:38 AM   #4104
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Farage and Andy Wigmore have apparently been visiting Liga Norda in Italy, asking Salvini to veto an article 50 extension. Via Carole Cadwalladr on twitter

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/s...712093184?s=12
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:47 AM   #4105
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Well, watching BBC on cable will be fun tonight.
You do realise that the "BBC" available in the US is nothing like any of the actual BBC channels?
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:50 AM   #4106
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Forget Germany and Poland, Cyprus or Malta could do it.
I can't remember what's on offer from Unoccupied Cyprus, but Malta's declared terms for British residents - whether they arrive before or after Brexit - are the most generous in the EU.

Last edited by Information Analyst; 13th March 2019 at 06:16 AM.
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:54 AM   #4107
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Farage and Andy Wigmore have apparently been visiting Liga Norda in Italy, asking Salvini to veto an article 50 extension. Via Carole Cadwalladr on twitter

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/s...712093184?s=12
Well if you can't trust fascists who can you trust ?
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:56 AM   #4108
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Noises coming from the European Commission on the UK Governments proposal on tariffs.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/sta...94665817747456

Quote:
Breaking: European Commission says the "differential treatment" of trade on the island of Ireland, in which the UK imposes tariffs on goods coming from Ireland to GB, but not goods going north across the Irish border "raises concerns."
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:57 AM   #4109
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
To think the DUP received 0.99% of the vote in NI and now Arlene Forster and her wee boys are holding the entire UK by the balls.
36% in 2017
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Old 13th March 2019, 05:58 AM   #4110
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There is a way out for Theresa May yet. Assuming the vote today for a no deal Brexit fails to pass and the Parliament rejects an extension tommorow, she can also ask for a vote to end project Brexit altogether and withdraw the notification.
You seem to do this a lot, but Parliament does not require the definitive article. "The Commons," and "the Lords," yes, but it's just "Parliament."
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Old 13th March 2019, 06:25 AM   #4111
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
She wouldn't do this. 76% of Conservative members would prefer a no-deal to a no-Brexit and Theresa May herself has repeatedly indicated that though she would prefer her deal, no-deal is acceptable.

Yet another reason why I think no-deal is a nailed-on certainty
Maybe. The only problem I see is that you're claiming she was truthful.

Quote:
You would, but that's because you're being pragmatic and don't have to bow to the desires of party members, key backers and noisy MPs.
It's also because I don't have to deal with them and my position in the world doesn't depend on them. She doesn't have the luxury.

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IMO Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't allow a free vote either. He sees Brexit as the penultimate piece of the jigsaw (the last is him being swept to power on a tidal wave of support ) which will inevitably lead to the establishing of a workers' utopia
Maybe. But if he whips Labour to support the no deal Brexit his own "damaging Tory Brexit" line goes out the window. He whipped FOR it FFS, how it is not partially his fault too?

In the worst case scenario Labour can't pin all the blame on Tories either. Plus if she offers a free vote and the parliament tells her to go on with a no deal Brexit she herself is not at fault for what happens later. Or at least she can claim so with some credibility.

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I think you may have misread the situation. She will be proud to have led the UK out of the EU on whatever terms but she does want to be PM as long as possible

I respectfully disagree, she desperately wants Brexit and a no-deal is, in her view, a perfectly acceptable second prize .
Maybe. We disagreed on this question throughout, however since neither of us will die if he's wrong and the other is right, all I'll say is that we'll see who was closer to the truth by the end of the month

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Old 13th March 2019, 06:26 AM   #4112
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well if you can't trust fascists who can you trust ?
Hey, at least the trains will run on time!
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Old 13th March 2019, 06:26 AM   #4113
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You seem to do this a lot, but Parliament does not require the definitive article. "The Commons," and "the Lords," yes, but it's just "Parliament."
Hm, ok, thanks, I didn't know that. Why doesn't it require the article? Plenty of parliaments are involved in the situation.

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Old 13th March 2019, 06:43 AM   #4114
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Farage and Andy Wigmore have apparently been visiting Liga Norda in Italy, asking Salvini to veto an article 50 extension. Via Carole Cadwalladr on twitter

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/s...712093184?s=12
And then we see who the real 'traitors' are.

The leave campaign and supporters have:

1. Tried to prevent the UK having the right to change its mind
2. Lobbied Poland to act against our interests
3. Lobbied Italy to act against our interests..

...any more?
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Old 13th March 2019, 06:44 AM   #4115
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
Noises coming from the European Commission on the UK Governments proposal on tariffs.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/sta...94665817747456
Raises concerns? It makes absolutely no sense on the face of it.
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Old 13th March 2019, 06:51 AM   #4116
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
My pet CT that she's been trying to stop the madness might yet be vindicated.
No, too much of this has been out of her control for this to be a cunning plan. She couldn't have expected to have ended up with a slender working majority backed by the DUP from the general election. She was expecting, as the polls told her, that the Tories would end up with a yuge majority that would have allowed her to push through any deal she got, and her inability to control what the EU would accept as a deal she could take to the HoC, or her inability to control her backbenchers who could have mounted a successful coup against her, not to mention the resilience it takes to put up with the ridicule she has got from the whole country, and the response by business to the uncertainty of Brexit. I just don't see how it is possible that there is that much method in her madness.
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Old 13th March 2019, 07:09 AM   #4117
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The motion put forward for the vote today is TM and Brexit in a nutshell.

'We all oppose no-deal but note that we will do it anyway' effectively.
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Old 13th March 2019, 07:55 AM   #4118
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Or to use a American expression:


"It's working great, Beav, working great"....


(On the classic "Leave It To Beaver" sitcom, Beaver;s older brother, Wally, would say that when trying to carry out one of his schemes. Of course, it always blew up in his face about a minute after he said that).

I initially assumed the show would be "Beavis & Butthead", an also not inappropriate comparison.

The car is heading for the cliff edge according to schedule, unfortunately the plans for converting it into a plane have been eaten by the dog...
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Old 13th March 2019, 08:04 AM   #4119
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Ok. Lets be realistic here.

One of the previous times the British government ran into trouble, we Dutch were perfectly willing to help by lending you one of our administrators.
I'm sure if you want to, we can do so again. And this time he's even got heirs.
It's sure to be a big hit with the DUP as well, as they still parade his colours around one day a year.
He comes with free trade deals to Argentine too.
And since the referendum was for the UK and not the new united kingdom of Great Britain, the Netherlands and Northern Ireland everyone can pretend it never happened.

Sure, we'll make licorice a mandatory sweet, but that's got to be worth the trade off?

Alright, I'm in.
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Old 13th March 2019, 08:08 AM   #4120
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Here's a typical post from another board I frequent:

Quote:
Why do we need a deal with the EU?
Because of militants in Ireland/Northern Ireland?

Maybe we should have a hard border and remind everybody that we're not the same country?
If the UK needs to protect its borders from dissident republicans, then so be it, it wouldn't be the first country in the world to protect its borders.
Seems like Ireland are to blame for not letting the UK be an independent country (oh the irony).

Why should there be a border down the Irish Sea when in reality the border is on the island of Ireland?
It seems stupid to have a border in the Irish Sea to let a foreign country have free access to the UK.

No deal should mean a border between the UK and Ireland, and a fresh slate for the UK to forge new deals.

I'm not a lawmaker lol, but even I know this.
I come here for light relief and a reminder that I'm not the bonkers one
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