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#3241 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,957
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#3242 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,957
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I don't know about Wales, but Scotland isn't doing any better on the second dose issue as far as I can see. They're currently being monstered by the Tories for "lagging behind", but this isn't because they're giving people their second injections, it's because they're prioritising care home residents, who take longer to reach, and leaving the over-80s who are healthy and living independently until the care homes have been largely covered. Scotland has meekly fallen into line on the one-dose-will-do-for-now diktat, and I fear it is all going to end very badly. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#3243 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,360
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#3244 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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Wait. The scientists and medics who designed the vaccines carefully calculated the exact composition and dosage needed. They specifically said the second application should be within six weeks . The Health Standards regulators carefully studied the results of the trials and their effectiveness and released the vaccination for use by the general public.
Now, I respect Christ Whitty and Jonathan Van Tam, but it seems they have sat down with Bozo and Matthew Hancock, and decided that to get it to as many people as possible they would stretch it to twelve weeks instead, which one suspects might be extendable again. Of course, they are panicking because of the sheer numbers of new deaths, hospital admissions and deaths, but the truth is this amounts to gross misuse of office to override the drug and vaccination regulating bodies. The people who had jab no.1 ( William Shakespeare, et al) are now at Day 42. They have been lied to and the contract of a second vaccination by Day 42, breached. As this hasn't been trialed, nobody knows the effect of changing the prescribed parameters. The BBC only looks good because the rest of the press is so bad. It drives me nuts getting 'notifications' about 'Boris' hailing this or blasting that, as though he is a cuddly teddy bear-like figure whom everybody looks upon affectionally, like Paddington Bear, as though he is some kind of loveable rogue. No! Alex Johnson is a scoundrel, there is nothing loveable about him, cast from the same mould as Nigel Farage and Donald Trump. He is a complete and utter rake. |
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#3245 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Usk, Wales
Posts: 26,413
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Grant Shapps under fire as ...
"Ministers are at the centre of an explosive row over their failure to protect workers from Covid-19 as the Observer reveals the largest workplace outbreak of the virus has taken place at a top government organisation. More than 500 cases have been recorded at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency’s offices in Swansea, where employees claim people with symptoms were encouraged to return to work while vulnerable workers have had requests to work from home turned down. ... A complaint received by Public Health Wales’s outbreak control team claims DVLA workers were asked to turn off their test-and-trace apps “so that their phones do not ping”. It also says absences relating to Covid have been counted against workers’ sick leave, with anything over 10 days triggering a warning." The Guardian Utterly appalling. How will he spin his way out of this? |
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"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut |
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#3246 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 97,067
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And don't forget that is an organisation that will do everything by the book and the employees have strong unions.
I know pretty much before the current lockdown many large retailers had gone back to their usual "don't work, don't get paid, don't have a job" approach to all sickness. |
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#3247 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,805
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I've changed my graphs to a 2-year timeperiod to capture the winter period
ONS England and Wales data It's not looking pretty for January |
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#3248 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 97,067
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#3249 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,805
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#3250 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 97,067
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#3251 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,912
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Jenny Eclair the comedian has tweeted that her partner has been texted to make his covid jab appt at a hospital in London but he's already had his first dose at local clinic and was given a second appt in 12 weeks.
She made some enquiries and it seems that although it is all supposed to go through a system called 'Pinnacle' there is no single database. People will get at least 2 invites. Public Health England are working to invite people to their nearest 'hub', and CCGs are inviting their patients from each general practice they oversee to a more local centre. |
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#3252 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,805
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Sadly I have been spending a lot of time on Twitter @parkinjim attempting to counter what misinformation I can.
I seem quite good at getting under the skin of some of them*, and indeed getting trolled who end up blocking me. *@FatEmperor for example, who is getting a good income from his Patraeon account and his kickstarter fund for a Covid denial video. I never thought I'd be arguing on the same side as a Tufton Street think tank member. |
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#3253 |
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,957
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I have recently retweeted Piers Morgan and Andrew Neil. I commented approvingly on a blog post from Effie Deans. I unblocked Claire Heuchan and Frances Barber. These are weird times.
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#3254 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 48,466
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I have more faith in the local CCGs, at least mine seem pretty efficient, based on the reports in the local press.
I recently had an invitation from the NHS to have a flu vaccination, ignoring the fact that I’d had one several months ago (at my own expense). The letter came from somewhere central, not from my GP (who should have been informed about my jab). |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#3255 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 3,365
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This website, from the right-wing of politics attempting to refute the shifting claims of Toby Young, Julia Hartley Brewer and other, mainly right wing grifters. Neil O'Brien, Tory MP, has leant his name to it.
Seems to be a very useful development |
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You can't defeat fascism through debate because it's not simply an idea, proposal or theory. It's a fundamentally flawed way of looking at the world. It's a distorting prism, emotionally charged and completely logic-proof. You may as well challenge rabies to a game of Boggle. @ViolettaCrisis |
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#3256 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 97,067
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What is all this nonsense of a “lost generation of kids” if schools don’t open soon? Where does such crap come from? There are plenty of ways the missed months of schooling can be made up. Personally I’d say to repeat the current education year for all kids in secondary school.
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#3257 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,360
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I think it's because the public don't seem to be warming to the "we've got to open the schools so the proles can go to work" message that the Conservatives have been promoting.
Instead of worrying about their share dividends, the Tories have decided to pretend to care about children's educational welfare - though obviously not about whether or not they eat. ![]() |
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#3258 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 97,067
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Yep.
And of course the government approach of “let them eat cake” sorry “let them work” ends up with the poorest dying at a much higher rate than the comfortable class: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b6fe97669dd57d
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#3259 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,360
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#3260 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 22,805
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Meanwhile in a lighter vein
https://twitter.com/garius/status/1353737518672470016
Quote:
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OECD healthcare spending Expenditure on healthcare http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm link is 2015 data (2013 Data below): UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending |
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#3261 | |||
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,912
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Sir Norman Fry
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#3262 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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According to Helsingin Sanomat, quoting the German newspaper BILD, the AstraZeneca vaccine has only been approved by the EU for under-65's only, claiming it is only about 8% effective for those over that age.
Quote:
In other news, AstraZeneca will be meeting EU leaders on Monday - not sure if that's today or next Monday - to explain to the EU why there is a shortfall in the promised production and supply of the vaccine for the EU, with Ursula Von Der Leyen threatening to sue for breach of contract. |
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Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på! |
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#3263 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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From Wednesday: Finland shuts its borders for 30 days. The current rate of infection is increasing at apx 4.5% per diem.
Quote:
Re the last sentence, only if they can find an airline or cruise ship/ferry that is available! I believe Finnair is still flying back from London journeys empty. The newer more virulent strains - according to Israel and the USA, and as hinted by the UK - is deeply worrying to various governments, especially as the virus seems to like cooler temperatures. |
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Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på! |
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#3264 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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Re the developing conflict between the EU and Astra Zeneca - with some hinting on social media that the pharmaceutical firm may have given preference to another client/country above the EU, hence the 60% shortfall in promised supplies.
Quote:
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#3265 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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This is quickly developing into a crisis. The EU hasn't ordered enough vaccines (300m). Astra-Zeneca - factory in the UK - can only deliver 31m for now. The French Pasteur Merck brand has been abandoned as being ineffective. However, Moderna has now been approved.
Let's get back to this 8% effectiveness rate for AstraZeneca. If it is the case that Alexander Johnson is giving over 70's 'a jab in the arm' just because AZ is British and its effectiveness is a poor 8% in that age group, people maybe being lulled into a false sense of security. (I understand the over 80's got the Pfizer jab which is 95% effective after two shots.) |
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#3266 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,360
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Or the 8% number could be wrong. The counterpoint...
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...y-in-over-65s/ |
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#3267 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,646
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As I previously pointed out the idea of giving as many people as possible a first dose and deferring a second dose was not something that came from the government. The JCVI is a four nation body with independent specialists and there is no suggestion they were 'forced' into following a government diktat. The same applies to MHRA, the people involved are independent professionals again there is no suggestion they were forced into following a political line. I know some of the people involved, they are doctors whose first concern is for their patients; that their patient are the UK population makes no difference to their ethical responsibility. You would have seen resignations if this was a political rather than scientific and medical decision.
There is no evidence that Pfizer looked at any other regimes. Doing studies on different regimes would have delayed completion of studies. You over assume the science behind the regime choice. AZ certainly have data showing that a three month interval may be better than a shorter interval. We know that in most vaccines a longer interval is better. I have been invited for my second dose. i will put my money where my mouth is and defer my second dose as long as possible - actually 2 months is the latest I can book. |
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#3268 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,646
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In part the current EU threat to block export of vaccines may be a response to this. It was certainly predicted that this might happen.
The UK (proportionate to population) subsidised vaccine development to a greater extent than the EU. To some extent I am told that those countries who provided greater support in funding vaccine development did get priority in ordering. I am not sure how Israel got priority, it certainly paid a very high price to Pfizer, but it also approved early. Certainly I worry that if the EU blocks vaccine export then other countries may do so. The US might do so, and if the UK has limited access to Pfizer and Moderna vaccines then there will certainly be pressure to keep AZ doses 'at home'. This threat by the EU is politically very dangerous opening up as it does the possibility of a global covid cold war. Certainly expect some stern words from WHO and NGOs. |
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#3269 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 28,319
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Today's WTF moment comes from United Nations, crying because muslins in Sri Lanka are seeing their family members who died of Covid cremated instead of buried in terms of their sky-daddy's wishes: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...uman-rights-un
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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#3270 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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Truth is, the figure is neither right nor wrong because there were so few people in the older age group in the trials - and two of them contracted Covid19 - the scientists were unable to provide a confidence level figure for this demographic.
I suspect the EU regulators have taken the literal view and said, OK it's proven 70% effective for the age groups as described in the UK trials but the older age group has only been trialled up to the 8% level for certain. It's all very well for scientists to extrapolate and say well if it is 70% for the other age groups, we can assume it is similar for the older groups. However, there are many many variables that can affect immunity: previous infections, general health, previous compromises to the immune system, allergies, having had the BGC (TB shot), the flu vaccination in the previous year - all of these have been shown to be possible factors in how well one's body fights a virus infection. For example, influenssa might be of no consequence for the average person yet for someone over a certain age it could be much more serious. There are several illnesses - mumps, chicken pox, polio - which are far more serious in adults than in children, so we can see why the EMA EU regulators are looking at age groups. |
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#3271 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,360
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In a country like Sri Lanka which is such a tinderbox, it's understandable that such a thing could cause offence especially when the official and majority religion, Buddhism, supports the "enforced" method of body disposal - especially when there's no evidence that burial is an issue from a public health perspective.
Personally I don't care what happens to me after my death and I don't particularly care what happens to those I love (so long as there's a degree of respect) but I also understand that there are people who deeply care and who think that if their dead body isn't handled correctly then there will be consequences in the afterlife. Superstitious nonsense IMO, but if there's no harm in acceding to their wishes (and in this case there appears not to be) then why not do so ? |
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#3272 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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As I see it the are three separate issues here:
For the first issue, one has to weigh up the pros and the cons. Say you have a patient who will almost certainly die if you do not perform an urgent operation which has a proven risk level of say, 70% success. Weighing up the benefits versus the cost of doing nothing, of course, you undertake the emergency operation, which one might not perform under normal circumstances. Faced with - at the time - near 70,000 mortalities and a soaring infection rate, of course the regulators will take a view that there was nothing to lose in releasing the vaccine because after all, of those who went on to contract Covid19, all were relatively mild cases. So, of course, you roll out the vaccine urgently as a matter of public interest. HOWEVER, that is not to say there are no reservations. There is a view in the press and the mass media, one must not say anything that might undermine public confidence in the AstraZeneca vaccine but the fact is, the trial dosages were not as per the planned schedules and accidentally halved for the British volunteer cohort and the ensuing results seeming to be better than for the Brazilian one, which again had different parameter to the British trials. Under normal circumstances the regulators would demand the trial be run again testing the new hypothesis of only needing half the prescribed original dose. But hey, here we have an emergency, let's just apply it en masse and assume everything will be all right based on common sense and weighing up the costs versus the benefits (which as sceptics we should recognise is Business Enterprise and Politics and NOT science, so please don't persuade us it is science). |
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#3273 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,360
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In the UK, the decision to maximise the number of first vaccines at the expense of doing second vaccines was a political decision, not one which was driven by science. The science has subsequently been bent to fit, with varying degrees of success. Indeed, it seems the closer one is to actual subject matter expertise, the less likely one is to support the 12 week gap between vaccinations (and does anyone believe for one moment that the government will be happy for the number of first vaccinations to drop precipitously in 2-3 months time as the second vaccinations fall due ?).
IMO as usual the government has been spooked by bad headlines, has chosen a course of action which is designed to generate the most positive headlines and may have been shown to have made a very poor choice in the medium term. |
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#3274 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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The UK was urgently getting its supplies from the Belgian factory just before Christmas under a cloak of some secrecy do to fears of attracting the attention of racketeers and delivered via the Eurotunnel to the UK depots.
The AstraZeneca plant in Belgium which it shares with Nova..?? (_sp?) has now informed the EU that it can now only provide 31m shots instead of the contracted 100m. ISTM the EU threat to bar export of Pfizer and Moderna to the UK is because it smells a rat and suspects that the UK has pulled a fast one, and taken the EU's designated share of the supplies. This may be why it has demanded to examine AstraZeneca's records which it has a legal right to do. Bear in mind it invested heavily in the development of the vaccine. AstraZeneca is now setting up a production line in Wrexham, UK so it no longer needs to rely on Belgian/Netherland supplies. As a possible sanction against the apparent breach of contract the EU are threatening to withhold the EU manufactured Pfizer/Moderna vaccines from the UK, being a 'third country' due to the scarcity of the AstraZeneca one, and which is unlikely to pass the EU regulators for the >65 age group. This is something that could escalate into a political crisis quite quickly, what with the Dutch and the Danes rioting in the streets over the continued lockdowns and curfews. |
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#3275 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 20,857
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Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på! |
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#3276 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,229
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This is what gets me.
There's no avoiding the drop in vaccination rate, you can only postpone it. They have essentially postponed the inevitable drop in rate by 6 weeks. At 24 weeks the same number of people will have been vaccinated with at least 1 shot whether you had 12 weeks or 6 if there's no increase in rate. If there is an increase in rate you've bought yourself 3 or 4 weeks. That's if the rate increases steadily, which is unlikely. We'll have bottlenecks. |
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#3277 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,912
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Third night of anti lockdown riots across cities in the Netherlands.
Tear gas and water cannons are being used. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55799919 |
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#3278 |
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 48,466
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Well, one factor is the rate of vaccine production, which I think is the main limiting factor at the moment, and it's possible that may be expected to ramp up in the next few weeks.
Secondly, if they get the 9 listed categories all done with their first jab, it may then be sensible to do the second injection for them before moving on to the under 50s. |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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#3279 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,229
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Even then, though, that has much the same effect at 12 or 6 week cycles.
You only gain 3 weeks or so. |
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#3280 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 31,912
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Matt Hancock describing “enhanced” contact tracing: getting people to self isolate, getting their contacts to self isolate, providing so the support they need.
Isn’t that just how contact tracing should work when it cost £22 billion? |
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