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Old 27th November 2020, 09:48 PM   #1
dudalb
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The Mideast..here we go again....

THis could get nasty with Iran swearing revenge.......
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Old 28th November 2020, 04:12 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
THis could get nasty with Iran swearing revenge.......
I guess you are talking abut the assassination of the leading Iranian nuclear scientist. If so, then it bears all the hallmarks of a Mossad/IDF operation - the car bomb to distract security, and the swarm attack by armed men. Very embarrassing for the Iranian security forces.

I have to agree that it could well be the case, but its likely to be taken against some kind of soft target. I doubt of that this revenge will take place inside Israel - those targets are too hard.
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Old 28th November 2020, 10:18 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
THis could get nasty with Iran swearing revenge.......
Just like they swore revenge over Qasem Soleimani. They fired a few rockets that caused zero casualties.

Crazy militant muslins the leaders of Iran might be, but they're certainly not stupid.

They're out-gunned and out-organised, as the assassination shows, and Trump's leaving the WH in six weeks, while Biden's already given hints that he will return to negotiation with Iran - they will do absolutely nothing.

And an odd coincidence - a US carrier group just happened to enter the area last week...
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Old 28th November 2020, 11:15 AM   #4
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Whatever the outcome, I believe it'll be orders of magnitude less nasty than a nuclear-armed Iran. And since Iran already exports terrorism to soft targets anyway, it might not be much different from the status quo. Minus an Iranian nuclear scientist. I think the sky is gonna stay largely intact on this one.
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Old 28th November 2020, 12:33 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just like they swore revenge over Qasem Soleimani. They fired a few rockets that caused zero casualties.

Crazy militant muslins the leaders of Iran might be, but they're certainly not stupid.

They're out-gunned and out-organised, as the assassination shows, and Trump's leaving the WH in six weeks, while Biden's already given hints that he will return to negotiation with Iran - they will do absolutely nothing.

And an odd coincidence - a US carrier group just happened to enter the area last week...

Are you hinting that you think a Navy Seal team did this?
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Old 28th November 2020, 12:42 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Are you hinting that you think a Navy Seal team did this?
Nope.

I'd bet my life no Americans were involved - far too neat for them. It has Israel written all over it.
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Old 28th November 2020, 12:57 PM   #7
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It would be a big strategic mistake for Iran to retaliate after Jan 20.

They can make Trump look bad and raise the stakes for Biden to come back to the negotiation table.

But if they retaliate early in the Biden term, he has to act aggressively and decisively. .
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Old 28th November 2020, 02:24 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It would be a big strategic mistake for Iran to retaliate after Jan 20.

They can make Trump look bad and raise the stakes for Biden to come back to the negotiation table.

But if they retaliate early in the Biden term, he has to act aggressively and decisively. .
Agreed, but never forge religious wackjobs have a major role in the Iranian Government. and they are not known for rational decisions.
Probably a huge struggle in the Iranian government between the pragmastists and the hard liners.
Iran will probably use it's Hezbollah ggons for the retaliation when it comes.
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Old 28th November 2020, 02:39 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And an odd coincidence - a US carrier group just happened to enter the area last week...
Not odd at all. US carrier groups pass through that area all the time. It would be odd if there were special ops happening when there *wasn't* a US carrier group in the region.

Plus, the USAF and its allies have pretty much permanent coverage anyway. It's not like the US needs a carrier group to make something like this happen.
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Old 28th November 2020, 02:45 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It would be a big strategic mistake for Iran to retaliate after Jan 20.

They can make Trump look bad and raise the stakes for Biden to come back to the negotiation table.

But if they retaliate early in the Biden term, he has to act aggressively and decisively. .
Yeah, he'll have to draw a red line and if they cross it again he'll have to let Putin broker a non-aggressive, indecisive reaction.
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Old 28th November 2020, 02:46 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Agreed, but never forge religious wackjobs have a major role in the Iranian Government. and they are not known for rational decisions.
Probably a huge struggle in the Iranian government between the pragmastists and the hard liners.
Iran will probably use it's Hezbollah ggons for the retaliation when it comes.
How will we be able to distinguish that Hezbollah action from any of the other Hezbollah actions that are happening? Is there going to be a press release? "Last month's act of terrorism was for Zionist occupation of the West Bank. This month, we were gonna give you a break, but you had to go and do the thing, so we're gonna go ahead and do another act of murderous terrorism after all."

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Old 28th November 2020, 02:55 PM   #12
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Seriously, what if the arrow of causation points the other way? What if the lack of retaliation for Soleimani was because they had a leadership and organization gap without him? What if this attack was able to go forward through the gap created by Soleimani's death?
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Old 28th November 2020, 04:19 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just like they swore revenge over Qasem Soleimani. They fired a few rockets that caused zero casualties.
Apart from PS752, of course.
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Old 28th November 2020, 04:20 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It would be a big strategic mistake for Iran to retaliate after Jan 20.

They can make Trump look bad and raise the stakes for Biden to come back to the negotiation table.

But if they retaliate early in the Biden term, he has to act aggressively and decisively. .
I'm betting on Trump doing something to trigger a retaliation that'll happen after he's gone.
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Old 28th November 2020, 07:05 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm betting on Trump doing something to trigger a retaliation that'll happen after he's gone.
Love that testable prediction. If Trump does it, how will we know?
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Old 28th November 2020, 09:34 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Love that testable prediction. If Trump does it, how will we know?
He'll tell us, of course.
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Old 28th November 2020, 10:34 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
He'll tell us, of course.
THIS

Malignant narcissists are also obsessive attention seekers. Trump will not be able to help himself - not telling the world about what he's done would be missing a gilt-edge opportunity to be the centre of attention.

There is also the aspect that any US action against Iran would make Biden's job with Iran an lot more difficult - so there is the "trolling the Libs, lolz" aspect that will appeal to a moron like Trump.
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Old 28th November 2020, 11:12 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Love that testable prediction. If Trump does it, how will we know?
are you betting that Trump during Biden's term will abstain from making political comments, as is usual for ex-Presidents?
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Old 29th November 2020, 05:24 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just like they swore revenge over Qasem Soleimani. They fired a few rockets that caused zero casualties.
Quote:
Operation Martyr Soleimani
...
Outcome 11 Qiam 1 missiles[2] hit Ayn al-Asad Airbase
...
Casualties United States 110 U.S. military personnel wounded (traumatic brain injury)[4]
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...rtyr_Soleimani)
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Old 29th November 2020, 07:19 AM   #20
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Trump has done lots of stupid negative things during his time as president. But unlike most presidents, he's not started any new wars (or technically, non-wars but “authorizations of military force”) and has actually removed lots of US troops from war zones that existed at the start of his term. I wouldn't be too confident that Biden will start as few wars (zero) as his predecessor.
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Old 29th November 2020, 01:23 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Trump has done lots of stupid negative things during his time as president. But unlike most presidents, he's not started any new wars (or technically, non-wars but ďauthorizations of military forceĒ) and has actually removed lots of US troops from war zones that existed at the start of his term. I wouldn't be too confident that Biden will start as few wars (zero) as his predecessor.
Trump came very close to ordering a attack on Iran aboy a year ago and had to be talked ut of it.
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Old 29th November 2020, 02:47 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
are you betting that Trump during Biden's term will abstain from making political comments, as is usual for ex-Presidents?
I'm not betting anything. I'm asking for a prediction we can test.

It sounds like the testable prediction is this: Sometime between now and when he leaves office, Trump will do something that causes an Iranian retaliation. And we'll know that the Iranian action is a retaliation because Trump will tell us ahead of time that this is what's going on.
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Old 29th November 2020, 02:53 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Trump came very close to ordering a attack on Iran aboy a year ago and had to be talked ut of it.
Cite?
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Old 29th November 2020, 04:46 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Trump came very close to ordering a attack on Iran aboy a year ago and had to be talked ut of it.
He was also going to attack an Iranian nuclear facility a few days ago, but his advisors managed talk him out of that one too
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Old 29th November 2020, 05:04 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
He was also going to attack an Iranian nuclear facility a few days ago, but his advisors managed talk him out of that one too
Cite?
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Old 29th November 2020, 05:15 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Cite?
"New York Times says Trump wanted to strike after U.N. reported growing stockpile of nuclear material"
"Top advisers talked President Donald Trump out of launching a military strike against Iranís nuclear facilities last week, the New York Times reported Monday night........Trump sought offensive options that the U.S. could take in the coming weeks, the Times reported, but senior advisers recommended against a military strike that they warned could spark a wider, regional conflict."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...rt-11605577420


"The outgoing president reportedly asked for options on bombing Iran as administration eyes last chance to achieve objectives"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...new-york-times
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Old 29th November 2020, 05:20 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I guess you are talking abut the assassination of the leading Iranian nuclear scientist. If so, then it bears all the hallmarks of a Mossad/IDF operation - the car bomb to distract security, and the swarm attack by armed men. Very embarrassing for the Iranian security forces.

I have to agree that it could well be the case, but its likely to be taken against some kind of soft target. I doubt of that this revenge will take place inside Israel - those targets are too hard.
They'll hire Hezbollah to bomb a bus full of defenceless Israeli teenagers somewhere, then lie about it to everyone who will listen. Their Western stooges will then repeat those lies everywhere, as if they were true. When all plausible deniability finally evaporates, said stooges will simply justify the attack, and pretend the pathetic lying never happened.
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Old 29th November 2020, 07:03 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Nope.

I'd bet my life no Americans were involved - far too neat for them. It has Israel written all over it.
There's a reasonable chance The US administration outsourced this assassination to Israel.
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Old 29th November 2020, 09:41 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Pfft. They're grunts - the traumatic brain injury was probably before they jined up.

Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
There's a reasonable chance The US administration outsourced this assassination to Israel.
Only if it never got to the top. Trump would have been Tweeting it if he'd known.

I just don't think Israel needs any encouragement to commit acts of murder - they've been doing it with impunity for decades.
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Old 29th November 2020, 10:54 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Pfft. They're grunts - the traumatic brain injury was probably before they jined up.



Only if it never got to the top. Trump would have been Tweeting it if he'd known.

I just don't think Israel needs any encouragement to commit acts of murder - they've been doing it with impunity for decades.
So has Hezbollah. They didn't need any encouragement to murder Israeli civilians, still they did the Burgas bus hit on behalf of their sponsor. It is entirely possible Israel was acting on behalf of the US. And Trump could keep his mouth shut if he wanted Israel to take the heat.
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Old 29th November 2020, 11:03 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm not betting anything. I'm asking for a prediction we can test.

It sounds like the testable prediction is this: Sometime between now and when he leaves office, Trump will do something that causes an Iranian retaliation. And we'll know that the Iranian action is a retaliation because Trump will tell us ahead of time that this is what's going on.
You mean like the attack on the Saudi oil production?

Iran has already retaliated in a few ways.
And what Trump has to say on this, as all matters, is pure fiction.
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Old 29th November 2020, 11:31 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Pfft. They're grunts - the traumatic brain injury was probably before they joined up.
How does that old saying go? "If you've half a mind to become a grunt, you're already overqualified"
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Old 29th November 2020, 11:42 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
So has Hezbollah. They didn't need any encouragement to murder Israeli civilians, still they did the Burgas bus hit on behalf of their sponsor.
When you post a tu quoque fallacy that doesn't even have any relevance to the issue, does that make it a double tu quoque, or a tu quoque plus a non sequitur? Why would you bother trying to defend a murder when you have to stoop to that level of nonsense?

Just for the record, Fakhrizadeh wasn't a member of Hezbollah and hadn't ever attacked any Israelis, far less murdered any.

Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
And Trump could keep his mouth shut if he wanted Israel to take the heat.
All the evidence in four years of his presidency says otherwise.
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Old 30th November 2020, 12:52 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
When you post a tu quoque fallacy that doesn't even have any relevance to the issue, does that make it a double tu quoque, or a tu quoque plus a non sequitur?
My comment had nothing to do with "tu-quogue", and it wasn't a non-sequitur. You argued against the possibility Israel conducted the assassination at the behest of the USG because "Israel doesn't need any encouragement to commit acts of murder." I provided an example that directly contradicts that assertion. Obviously, military units needing no encouragement to commit murder have been known to conduct hits at the request of their allies. Actually, I really shouldn't have needed to provide an example, because your assertion was ridiculous on its face.

Quote:
Why would you bother trying to defend a murder when you have to stoop to that level of nonsense?
I wasn't defending or attacking the assassination, I was defending the possibility that it might have been conducted at the request of the USG. That's a reasonable possibility, not nonsense.

Quote:
Just for the record, Fakhrizadeh wasn't a member of Hezbollah and hadn't ever attacked any Israelis, far less murdered any.
True. Completely irrelevant, but true.

Quote:
All the evidence in four years of his presidency says otherwise.
Trump acts in his own interests. If he wanted to strike Iran, possibly to sabotage Biden's efforts to negotiate, while maintaining plausible deniability, keeping his mouth shut would serve those interests.
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Old 30th November 2020, 01:16 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
My comment had nothing to do with "tu-quogue", and it wasn't a non-sequitur. You argued against the possibility Israel conducted the assassination at the behest of the USG because "Israel doesn't need any encouragement to commit acts of murder." I provided an example that directly contradicts that assertion.
You clearly have no idea how this evidence business works, and your post absolutely contained two logical fallacies.

One example of being provoked to commit murder does not negate the times they've needed no provocation.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...or-human-life/

ETA - my personal favourite: Ahmed Bouchikhi

Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Trump acts in his own interests. If he wanted to strike Iran, possibly to sabotage Biden's efforts to negotiate, while maintaining plausible deniability, keeping his mouth shut would serve those interests.
Again, there is no evidence to show that's likely, or even possible that he would stay quiet.
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Old 30th November 2020, 01:41 AM   #36
trustbutverify
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You clearly have no idea how this evidence business works, and your post absolutely contained two logical fallacies.
I know how this evidence business works, and my post contained no logical fallacies. Stop projecting.

Quote:
One example of being provoked to commit murder does not negate the times they've needed no provocation.
There are several reasonable possibilities surrounding this assassination, and one of them (not the most likely) is that Israel conducted it at the behest of the US. This confused drivel notwithstanding.

Quote:
Again, there is no evidence to show that's likely, or even possible that he would stay quiet.
He would stay quiet if he felt it was in his best interests. For example, I have no doubt he knows he lost this election, yet he seems to have resisted the urge to tweet it.
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Old 30th November 2020, 08:35 AM   #37
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
"New York Times says Trump wanted to strike after U.N. reported growing stockpile of nuclear material"
"Top advisers talked President Donald Trump out of launching a military strike against Iranís nuclear facilities last week, the New York Times reported Monday night........Trump sought offensive options that the U.S. could take in the coming weeks, the Times reported, but senior advisers recommended against a military strike that they warned could spark a wider, regional conflict."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...rt-11605577420


"The outgoing president reportedly asked for options on bombing Iran as administration eyes last chance to achieve objectives"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...new-york-times
LOL. The Guardian Reports that the New York Times reports that... Do you have the actual cite from the NYT, about who they got the report from?
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Old 30th November 2020, 08:41 AM   #38
theprestige
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
You mean like the attack on the Saudi oil production?

Iran has already retaliated in a few ways.
"Retaliated." Iran attacks stuff directly and by terrorist proxy on a regular basis.

Quote:
And what Trump has to say on this, as all matters, is pure fiction.
Tell it to smartcooky and alfaniner, who believe that Trump's statement will be the way to test the prediction.
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Old 30th November 2020, 04:35 PM   #39
Matthew Ellard
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
LOL. The Guardian Reports that the New York Times reports that... Do you have the actual cite from the NYT, about who they got the report from?
The New York Times is behind a paywall to non-subscribers, so I linked you to the Guardian quoting the New York Times as a courtesy.

Are you now denying Trump asked for military options to bomb Iran?
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Old 30th November 2020, 06:05 PM   #40
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
The New York Times is behind a paywall to non-subscribers, so I linked you to the Guardian quoting the New York Times as a courtesy.


Quote:
Are you now denying Trump asked for military options to bomb Iran?
Well, I'm denying your attempt to shift the burden of proof.

I guess, based on the language of the reports cited, that I'm also denying dudalb's claim that "Trump came very close to ordering a attack on Iran aboy a year ago and had to be talked ut of it."

It sounds more like he's doing the normal president thing of asking for and considering options.

As usual, the predictions that Trump is on a hair trigger and about to wildly overreact with military force seem to be laughably overblown.
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