Black Swan Event Under Way - Page 26

The Don · 22nd March 2022, 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Outside of this forum, where the average age is likely around early 70s, most people will think it is. It's going to be 2-3 times higher than anyone under 50 will have ever experienced, and I suspect the fallout will be huge. Wages are already rocketing. The employment picture is vastly different from last time we had high inflation.

Quibbling about what to call it is a bit redundant in the face of the reality.

And I think it's going to be a temporary blip. Sure many people will suffer financially, but the effects will be comparatively short lived and won't result in any kind of paradigm shift.

I guess we'll know in 6 or 12 months. If inflation is in double digits and rising with no end in sight then you'll be right, that tsunami is on its way. If it's on the way down it'll be yet another economic bump in the road.

That said, personally I'd like to see interest rates back up to long term norms which in turn would encourage what I consider more responsible behaviour and won't continue to inflate the asset bubble.

Meadmaker · 22nd March 2022, 12:24 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Outside of this forum, where the average age is likely around early 70s, most people will think it is. It's going to be 2-3 times higher than anyone under 50 will have ever experienced, and I suspect the fallout will be huge. Wages are already rocketing. The employment picture is vastly different from last time we had high inflation.

Quibbling about what to call it is a bit redundant in the face of the reality.

And most of us who did experience it did so as teenagers.

Higher costs for beer was a big deal, but a lot of people will find that inflation is a much bigger deal now that we are looking at a bank account as a way to sustain our lifestyle in retirement.

ETA: And, of course, during those intervening years, we have all been conditioned to create that retirement account, and given lots of opportunities to do so, far more than our fathers or (much more rarely) mothers did.

The Atheist · 22nd March 2022, 12:43 PM

Originally Posted by The Don

That said, personally I'd like to see interest rates back up to long term norms which in turn would encourage what I consider more responsible behaviour and won't continue to inflate the asset bubble.

I'm 100% on you with that.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

And most of us who did experience it did so as teenagers.

I was in corporate banking and watched, dumbfounded, as interest rates hit over 1000% per annum for overnight rates.

Fun times.

marting · 9th April 2022, 03:43 PM

I just went through the numbers for buying a 500k home a year ago vs now in the USA.

The average home purchase price went up 20% Feb 2021 to Feb 2022. Mortgage rates went up from 3% to 5%

A 30y, monthly mortgage payment on a 500k home went up from $2,108 to $3,221. That's over 50% higher.

Things are going to get interesting.

The Atheist · 10th April 2022, 12:15 PM

Rates here are now up to four times where they were a year ago.

Interesting is somewhat mild!

Orphia Nay · 16th April 2022, 08:02 PM

Originally Posted by Pixel42

As I said, I've been investing £300 a month since May 2017. Every month I compare the total amount I've invested with the current value of those investments and post the result as a percentage change. The idea, as originally stated, is to use my experience to monitor how good or bad a decision it was to continue investing, rather than cash in, at the start of the pandemic. I'm not sure what it is about this that people are having difficulty understanding.

At the moment it's looking like a good decision, but that might well change as time goes on.

Just thinking back to this thread and wondering if you've been continuing investing (dollar cost averaging) throughout the pandemic, and what your figures tell you. Cheers.

Pixel42 · 17th April 2022, 08:43 AM

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Just thinking back to this thread and wondering if you've been continuing investing (dollar cost averaging) throughout the pandemic, and what your figures tell you. Cheers.

I'm still investing £300 every month. I've now invested a total of £18,000 since May 2017, and my ISA has a current value of £20,250. Not spectacular growth by any means, but I'm still glad I didn't cash it in when that black swan flew in.

There was a big dip at last month's update, which was just after Russia invaded Ukraine, but this month it had just about recovered it.

Orphia Nay · 17th April 2022, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Pixel42

I'm still investing £300 every month. I've now invested a total of £18,000 since May 2017, and my ISA has a current value of £20,250. Not spectacular growth by any means, but I'm still glad I didn't cash it in when that black swan flew in.

There was a big dip at last month's update, which was just after Russia invaded Ukraine, but this month it had just about recovered it.

Thanks! Good to hear, and well done.

The Atheist · 23rd May 2022, 12:44 AM

I guess it depends on which perspective you see covid from as to whether it's a black swan or a gold rush.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/billi...b04353eb0a526d

22nd March 2022, 12:24 PM	#1002
Meadmaker Guest Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29,033	Originally Posted by The Atheist Outside of this forum, where the average age is likely around early 70s, most people will think it is. It's going to be 2-3 times higher than anyone under 50 will have ever experienced, and I suspect the fallout will be huge. Wages are already rocketing. The employment picture is vastly different from last time we had high inflation. Quibbling about what to call it is a bit redundant in the face of the reality. And most of us who did experience it did so as teenagers. Higher costs for beer was a big deal, but a lot of people will find that inflation is a much bigger deal now that we are looking at a bank account as a way to sustain our lifestyle in retirement. ETA: And, of course, during those intervening years, we have all been conditioned to create that retirement account, and given lots of opportunities to do so, far more than our fathers or (much more rarely) mothers did.
Meadmaker Guest Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29,033	Last edited by Meadmaker; 22nd March 2022 at 12:26 PM.

22nd March 2022, 12:43 PM	#1003
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Originally Posted by The Don That said, personally I'd like to see interest rates back up to long term norms which in turn would encourage what I consider more responsible behaviour and won't continue to inflate the asset bubble. I'm 100% on you with that. Originally Posted by Meadmaker And most of us who did experience it did so as teenagers. I was in corporate banking and watched, dumbfounded, as interest rates hit over 1000% per annum for overnight rates. Fun times.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

9th April 2022, 03:43 PM	#1004
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	I just went through the numbers for buying a 500k home a year ago vs now in the USA. The average home purchase price went up 20% Feb 2021 to Feb 2022. Mortgage rates went up from 3% to 5% A 30y, monthly mortgage payment on a 500k home went up from $2,108 to $3,221. That's over 50% higher. Things are going to get interesting.
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

10th April 2022, 12:15 PM	#1005
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Rates here are now up to four times where they were a year ago. Interesting is somewhat mild!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

16th April 2022, 08:02 PM	#1006
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Photo Contest Winner Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 40,453	Originally Posted by Pixel42 As I said, I've been investing £300 a month since May 2017. Every month I compare the total amount I've invested with the current value of those investments and post the result as a percentage change. The idea, as originally stated, is to use my experience to monitor how good or bad a decision it was to continue investing, rather than cash in, at the start of the pandemic. I'm not sure what it is about this that people are having difficulty understanding. At the moment it's looking like a good decision, but that might well change as time goes on. Just thinking back to this thread and wondering if you've been continuing investing (dollar cost averaging) throughout the pandemic, and what your figures tell you. Cheers.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

22nd March 2022, 10:52 AM	#1001
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,406	Originally Posted by The Atheist Outside of this forum, where the average age is likely around early 70s, most people will think it is. It's going to be 2-3 times higher than anyone under 50 will have ever experienced, and I suspect the fallout will be huge. Wages are already rocketing. The employment picture is vastly different from last time we had high inflation. Quibbling about what to call it is a bit redundant in the face of the reality. And I think it's going to be a temporary blip. Sure many people will suffer financially, but the effects will be comparatively short lived and won't result in any kind of paradigm shift. I guess we'll know in 6 or 12 months. If inflation is in double digits and rising with no end in sight then you'll be right, that tsunami is on its way. If it's on the way down it'll be yet another economic bump in the road. That said, personally I'd like to see interest rates back up to long term norms which in turn would encourage what I consider more responsible behaviour and won't continue to inflate the asset bubble.

17th April 2022, 08:43 AM	#1007
Pixel42 Schrödinger's cat Join Date: May 2004 Location: Malmesbury, UK Posts: 14,672	Originally Posted by Orphia Nay Just thinking back to this thread and wondering if you've been continuing investing (dollar cost averaging) throughout the pandemic, and what your figures tell you. Cheers. I'm still investing £300 every month. I've now invested a total of £18,000 since May 2017, and my ISA has a current value of £20,250. Not spectacular growth by any means, but I'm still glad I didn't cash it in when that black swan flew in. There was a big dip at last month's update, which was just after Russia invaded Ukraine, but this month it had just about recovered it.
	__________________ "If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett Last edited by Pixel42; 17th April 2022 at 08:45 AM.

17th April 2022, 04:04 PM	#1008
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Photo Contest Winner Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 40,453	Originally Posted by Pixel42 I'm still investing £300 every month. I've now invested a total of £18,000 since May 2017, and my ISA has a current value of £20,250. Not spectacular growth by any means, but I'm still glad I didn't cash it in when that black swan flew in. There was a big dip at last month's update, which was just after Russia invaded Ukraine, but this month it had just about recovered it. Thanks! Good to hear, and well done.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

23rd May 2022, 12:44 AM	#1009
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	I guess it depends on which perspective you see covid from as to whether it's a black swan or a gold rush. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/billi...b04353eb0a526d
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.