Black Swan Event Under Way - Page 3

The Atheist · 27th February 2020, 10:25 PM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

In December 2018 the Dow hit 22445. This was a drop of from 25538 in November 2018 (so a drop of ~3000 points).

Currently, stock prices sit at 25752, so they still have a ways to go to reach that level. But, they've already dropped ~3000 points this week... if next week follows the same patter, they could easily match that level.

With -250 already built in for tomorrow's opening - and I'd say it will be more than that - it won't be long before 20,000 is a memory, never mind 22,000.

Samson · 28th February 2020, 12:39 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Few dead cats in the futures market.

Silly people, they'll get crushed.

I think tonite for a bounce that will fail and go lower than a limbo chick into the weekend close.

a_unique_person · 28th February 2020, 01:15 AM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

My Carnival Cruise Line stock has really dropped a lot this week. Fortunately I didn't have a lot of it.

Funeral companies are doing well.

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 01:41 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

I think tonite for a bounce that will fail and go lower than a limbo chick into the weekend close.

Nope, it's like the turtles, mate - down all the way.

Futures are -120, so a few dead cats trying to put in an appearance, but I think there's too much selling pressure.

Even gold's down another $5, and oil isn't even getting out of bed.

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

Funeral companies are doing well.

They will do great, but very few of them are listed companies.

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 02:22 AM

45 minutes later and futs are now down 440.

More blood on the floor tomorrow.

How low will it be when cases are in the millions?

Coming soon to a planet near you.

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 02:40 AM

20 minutes later, they're down 635.

This brings back memories of '87, when the floor just kept dropping. Every time you think a low's been reached, it drops another 500.

Uuuuugly stuff.

(Unless you're in TVIX, which just cruised to $120.)

a_unique_person · 28th February 2020, 02:58 AM

What's with this black swan thing anyway. They are very common.

The Don · 28th February 2020, 03:06 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

20 minutes later, they're down 635.

This brings back memories of '87, when the floor just kept dropping. Every time you think a low's been reached, it drops another 500.

Uuuuugly stuff.

(Unless you're in TVIX, which just cruised to $120.)

Good call on TVIX and in particular a good call on the exit approach which has meant that anyone who followed your advice is guaranteed profit.

Assuming that the 15%+ drop in the markets is reflected in the mutual funds we hold - and it likely is - then Mrs Don and I are looking at a paper loss of around £200k - £250k over the last week. It would have been a ballsy call to buy enough TVIX to fully hedge that loss.

Then again, that loss is just a paper loss against the highest MTM. Our average purchase price over the last 30 years is considerably lower than that. The hope and expectation is that, as we're continuing to invest in the market, this correction offers good value. Then again if this isn't merely a correction but is instead the start of a revaluation which will result in prices ending up at 10% or less of their value a week ago then that's an entirely different matter and our retirement plans are in pieces.

psionl0 · 28th February 2020, 03:28 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Good call on TVIX and in particular a good call on the exit approach which has meant that anyone who followed your advice is guaranteed profit.

It shows that TA works as long as TA is short for The Atheist.

TragicMonkey · 28th February 2020, 04:37 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

45 minutes later and futs are now down 440.

More blood on the floor tomorrow.

How low will it be when cases are in the millions?

Coming soon to a planet near you.

It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?

Meadmaker · 28th February 2020, 05:19 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

20 minutes later, they're down 635.

This brings back memories of '87, when the floor just kept dropping. Every time you think a low's been reached, it drops another 500.

Uuuuugly stuff.

(Unless you're in TVIX, which just cruised to $120.)

Good analogy.

And people who held their shares made a lot of money by 1988.

I don't know that that will happen this year. Stocks, at least some of them, were pverpriced, so they might not come back to last week's level for years. However, I predict that they will go way down, perhaps even as far as The Atheist is predicting, and then they will come way back up, at least close to where they are now.

Should you buy or sell today? I can't answer that. What I'm pretty sure of is that Amazon will be making a lot of money five years from now, whether or not they make a lot of money five months from now.

shemp · 28th February 2020, 06:16 AM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of ~~both economic and viral~~ TRUMP disaster?

FTFY

shemp · 28th February 2020, 07:40 AM

And the Dow is already off about 500 today. Good thing I've got everything in the Under Shemp's Mattress Fund!

marting · 28th February 2020, 09:49 AM

And then the not-so-clueless from
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-gl...213d28824.html

"This will eventually end badly. I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now," Scott Minerd, global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, writes in a note. "The cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning."

From Feb 13 when markets were flying high but blind as a bat.

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.co...global-economy

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Then again, that loss is just a paper loss against the highest MTM. Our average purchase price over the last 30 years is considerably lower than that. The hope and expectation is that, as we're continuing to invest in the market, this correction offers good value. Then again if this isn't merely a correction but is instead the start of a revaluation which will result in prices ending up at 10% or less of their value a week ago then that's an entirely different matter and our retirement plans are in pieces.

I'd certainly be holding off until the market finds the bottom - I think it has a long way to go yet.

I'm sticking by my statement that this will be the greatest economic shock since 1929.

What does surprise me is the commodity crash. Gold's off $50 today and I can't find anything in the black. Even Bitcoin has dropped like a stone.

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?

No.

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 10:16 AM

Dow down 700 and still going...

William Parcher · 28th February 2020, 10:27 AM

Mondays can be very black. What is the allowable freefall limit before the market gets shut down?

marting · 28th February 2020, 11:13 AM

Originally Posted by William Parcher

Mondays can be very black. What is the allowable freefall limit before the market gets shut down?

Various short term percentages from 7% to 20% of the SP500. 20% shuts down for the rest of the day. That would be about 5000 Dow. Currently.

Click bait media has been harping on the "Largest Dow drop in History" but that's in point terms. What counts are percentages.

Dr. Keith · 28th February 2020, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

God must love me. I was actually cashing some things out to pay for upcoming dental work, and sold my Disney stock last week when it was at 140. Today it's at 118.

I had similar good luck, but my wife gets credit.

We sold some property at the end of last year and have way more cash than usual in our savings account. I wanted to put it in the market, but we will likely be spending most of it on other real estate over the next three years, so she wanted to keep it as cash.

So, as the rest of our portfolio is likely crashing (I don't dare look) that chunk is safe and sound earning almost no interest.

dudalb · 28th February 2020, 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by Dr. Keith

I had similar good luck, but my wife gets credit.

We sold some property at the end of last year and have way more cash than usual in our savings account. I wanted to put it in the market, but we will likely be spending most of it on other real estate over the next three years, so she wanted to keep it as cash.

So, as the rest of our portfolio is likely crashing (I don't dare look) that chunk is safe and sound earning almost no interest.

Don't forget Brains Gremlin investment advice in "Gremlins 2":

"I am telling all my clients to invest in Canned Foods and Shotguns".

marting · 28th February 2020, 01:37 PM

My expectation is that most non-cash assets will drop a lot as social distancing cuts in. Exceptions are cash equivs like govt bonds. Corporate bonds are another matter. I expect interest rates on them to push upward. Especially those where corporations have higher ratios of debt to accounts receivables. Shortages will appear. At first this will be mitigated by the strong drop in demand. Many months from now shortages will start to dominate and impact prices and that will put pressure on govt bonds. The debt overhang can't be paid after the economic downturn. Various things can be done. Bail-ins, a tax on cash. They will have to go where the money is and "is" becomes a "was." There will be general debt "restructuring." The Great Recession" of 2009 suggests 5 years on we may call the coming period "The Great Restructuring." And life will go on.

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 02:02 PM

And don't expect the markets to turn any time soon - the bleeding market's only just closed and futures are down another 500 already.

In the space of a week, the market has passed through "correction" and is about a day away from bear status.

marting · 28th February 2020, 02:28 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

And don't expect the markets to turn any time soon - the bleeding market's only just closed and futures are down another 500 already.

Not just the stock market. I expect home prices to plummet. Especially in Calif. where I live. The state strongly depends on tax income from cap gains (taxed at a high rate and, like other state and property taxes, not deductible federally beyond 10k). And we ramp spending like drunken sailors during boom times. State revenues are going to shrink. A lot and make federal revenue drops look pale. It's going to be ugly.

Meridian · 28th February 2020, 02:40 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

And don't expect the markets to turn any time soon - the bleeding market's only just closed and futures are down another 500 already.

Any theories as to why TVIX has fallen back from $120 to just below $100 at/just after close of trading?

Tippit · 28th February 2020, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by marting

And then the not-so-clueless from
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-gl...213d28824.html

"This will eventually end badly. I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now," Scott Minerd, global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, writes in a note. "The cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning."

From Feb 13 when markets were flying high but blind as a bat.

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.co...global-economy

For a little more context, Minerd made a bullish call on silver. I've been heavily invested in silver as well as silver shares for a long time, so that was good news to me. But for the last few days, I've been absolutely getting slaughtered. I think there are two reasons for this, one, silver has many industrial applications, and if the global economy is going to fall off of a cliff, it's going to curb that portion of demand for silver. Two, it is the most highly manipulated asset in the world. Here is why:

Ted Butler: The Genius Of JP Morgan, The Profit-Generating Machine

Bear Stearns Déjà vu?

So far Minerd has been dead right about the market, and dead wrong on silver. I'm not sure whether he is aware of the manipulation, or whether he thinks it is going to end sometime soon, but I'm hoping he will be right about that as well.

In case you were wondering why seven of some of the largest banks in the world would manipulate gold and silver, the answer is that they want to condition investors away from investing in any physical, independent store of value as a safe haven, so that they invest in the multi-trillion dollar US Government bond market instead. So far, it's working and they've been highly successful. I'm trying to imagine what the catalyst would be for that to change.

dudalb · 28th February 2020, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by marting

Not just the stock market. I expect home prices to plummet. Especially in Calif. where I live. The state strongly depends on tax income from cap gains (taxed at a high rate and, like other state and property taxes, not deductible federally beyond 10k). And we ramp spending like drunken sailors during boom times. State revenues are going to shrink. A lot and make federal revenue drops look pale. It's going to be ugly.

Well, that's one way to solve the California housing crisis....

dudalb · 28th February 2020, 02:54 PM

Originally Posted by Tippit

For a little more context, Minerd made a bullish call on silver. I've been heavily invested in silver as well as silver shares for a long time, so that was good news to me. But for the last few days, I've been absolutely getting slaughtered. I think there are two reasons for this, one, silver has many industrial applications, and if the global economy is going to fall off of a cliff, it's going to curb that portion of demand for silver. Two, it is the most highly manipulated asset in the world. Here is why:

Ted Butler: The Genius Of JP Morgan, The Profit-Generating Machine

Bear Stearns Déjà vu?

So far Minerd has been dead right about the market, and dead wrong on silver. I'm not sure whether he is aware of the manipulation, or whether he thinks it is going to end sometime soon, but I'm hoping he will be right about that as well.

In case you were wondering why seven of some of the largest banks in the world would manipulate gold and silver, the answer is that they want to condition investors away from investing in any physical, independent store of value as a safe haven, so that they invest in the multi-trillion dollar US Government bond market instead. So far, it's working and they've been highly successful. I'm trying to imagine what the catalyst would be for that to change.

I think is it moving ,for some people, away from just maintain their wealth, and more to sheer survival. Sell your stocks, store up on Canned goods, MRE's and firearms.
Or, if you want to invest in stocks, invest in companies making the above items.

Tippit · 28th February 2020, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by Meridian

Any theories as to why TVIX has fallen back from $120 to just below $100 at/just after close of trading?

TIVX is leveraged, and investors might be anticipating a short term top in volatility. There are other leveraged options to capitalize on a bear market, for instance any of the 3x leveraged bear ETFs, like SPXS, the S&P 500 3x leveraged bear fund. You can google for lists of these types of funds, but beware, the risks are commensurate with the rewards.

If you think the market is going straight down, you will probably make more money with the 3x inverse leveraged funds than you will with a VIX fund. If you think there will be a snapback rally OR more downside, the VIX fund might still be appropriate. If you think the market is going to churn at these levels for a while, you probably want to consider selling TIVX. Do your homework.

a_unique_person · 28th February 2020, 03:06 PM

I'm going all in on Bitcoin.

dudalb · 28th February 2020, 03:06 PM

At the White House this morning, the WAPO reports the main topic was not controlling the virus but how to prop up the markets. A new Tax Cut was the favorite...…

God, don't they realise that a Good program in place to handle the Corona Virus is the best way to stop the stock market panic?
Usual methods are not going to work this time. Pure fear has taken over.

marting · 28th February 2020, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

At the White House this morning, the WAPO reports the main topic was not controlling the virus but how to prop up the markets. A new Tax Cut was the favorite...…

Are you surprised? I'm not.

The Atheist · 28th February 2020, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by marting

Not just the stock market. I expect home prices to plummet. Especially in Calif. where I live.

Yep. I've been having a laugh at our real estate people who've been picking 10% increases this year.

Good luck on that. Maybe 10% decrease.

Originally Posted by Meridian

Any theories as to why TVIX has fallen back from $120 to just below $100 at/just after close of trading?

A bit of upward pressure on futures, added to very thin volume.

Probably a few sensible profit-takers, too.

Already back to $105.

Trading on shut markets is a good way to lose your shirt any time. They can move a mile in an instant because there aren't enough players to soak up the volatility.

William Parcher · 28th February 2020, 03:53 PM

Washington Post now has breaking news of a second mystery origin infected in California. They are saying it looks like it's in the wild now. That may cause a very black Monday.

dudalb · 28th February 2020, 04:19 PM

God, with the news of the Santa Clara outbreak, Monday is probably going to be a real bloodbath on Wall Street.

dudalb · 28th February 2020, 04:20 PM

Originally Posted by marting

Are you surprised? I'm not.

Nope, not surprised at all,just reporting the expected.
That showing he has viable plan to fight the virus would be the single best thing he could do to calm the markets down seems beyond his reach.

Meadmaker · 28th February 2020, 09:56 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Nope, not surprised at all,just reporting the expected.
That showing he has viable plan to fight the virus would be the single best thing he could do to calm the markets down seems beyond his reach.

Good point.

On the other hand, without a medicine or vaccine, a viable plan would seem to be to have lots and lots of people stay home. That means they don't make stuff at work. And they don't get paid so they can't buy stuff, at stores that are closed because those people didn't go to work, which probably wouldn't be good for the market.

marting · 28th February 2020, 11:27 PM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

Good point.

On the other hand, without a medicine or vaccine, a viable plan would seem to be to have lots and lots of people stay home. That means they don't make stuff at work. And they don't get paid so they can't buy stuff, at stores that are closed because those people didn't go to work, which probably wouldn't be good for the market.

Yeah. That's the real potential problem. And supply chain failures that will start hitting in March. Best outcome is if the thing is caught early enough when it pops up that social distancing (school/work/group shutdowns) are kept relatively local. It will depend a lot on how well surveillance works, what sort of lag occurs between infection and testing, and convincing everyone with any symptoms to stay away from others. One can hope. We have a lot earlier warning than China had.

The Atheist · 29th February 2020, 01:07 AM

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

Good point.

On the other hand, without a medicine or vaccine, a viable plan would seem to be to have lots and lots of people stay home. That means they don't make stuff at work. And they don't get paid so they can't buy stuff, at stores that are closed because those people didn't go to work, which probably wouldn't be good for the market.

The tricky part is, when they're too sick to work they won't be making anything anyway, and if the spread isn't slowed, the health systems will implode and kill even more people.

Bit of a devil's alternative, and well past the intellectual abilities of a very large toddler.

Orphia Nay · 29th February 2020, 03:30 AM

This seems like betting on people panicking, not on the actual risk itself.

The Great Zaganza · 29th February 2020, 04:06 AM

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

This seems like betting on people panicking, not on the actual risk itself.

Which, in the age of monetization of media attention and Russian disinformation campaign, is kind of a safe bet to make.

27th February 2020, 10:25 PM	#81
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Originally Posted by Segnosaur In December 2018 the Dow hit 22445. This was a drop of from 25538 in November 2018 (so a drop of ~3000 points). Currently, stock prices sit at 25752, so they still have a ways to go to reach that level. But, they've already dropped ~3000 points this week... if next week follows the same patter, they could easily match that level. With -250 already built in for tomorrow's opening - and I'd say it will be more than that - it won't be long before 20,000 is a memory, never mind 22,000.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 12:39 AM	#82
Samson Philosopher Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,948	Originally Posted by The Atheist Few dead cats in the futures market. Silly people, they'll get crushed. I think tonite for a bounce that will fail and go lower than a limbo chick into the weekend close.
Samson Philosopher Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,948

28th February 2020, 01:15 AM	#83
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,242	Originally Posted by Meadmaker My Carnival Cruise Line stock has really dropped a lot this week. Fortunately I didn't have a lot of it. Funeral companies are doing well.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

28th February 2020, 01:41 AM	#84
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Originally Posted by Samson I think tonite for a bounce that will fail and go lower than a limbo chick into the weekend close. Nope, it's like the turtles, mate - down all the way. Futures are -120, so a few dead cats trying to put in an appearance, but I think there's too much selling pressure. Even gold's down another $5, and oil isn't even getting out of bed. Originally Posted by a_unique_person Funeral companies are doing well. They will do great, but very few of them are listed companies.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 02:22 AM	#85
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	45 minutes later and futs are now down 440. More blood on the floor tomorrow. How low will it be when cases are in the millions? Coming soon to a planet near you.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 02:40 AM	#86
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	20 minutes later, they're down 635. This brings back memories of '87, when the floor just kept dropping. Every time you think a low's been reached, it drops another 500. Uuuuugly stuff. (Unless you're in TVIX, which just cruised to $120.)
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 02:58 AM	#87
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,242	What's with this black swan thing anyway. They are very common.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

28th February 2020, 03:06 AM	#88
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,406	Originally Posted by The Atheist 20 minutes later, they're down 635. This brings back memories of '87, when the floor just kept dropping. Every time you think a low's been reached, it drops another 500. Uuuuugly stuff. (Unless you're in TVIX, which just cruised to $120.) Good call on TVIX and in particular a good call on the exit approach which has meant that anyone who followed your advice is guaranteed profit. Assuming that the 15%+ drop in the markets is reflected in the mutual funds we hold - and it likely is - then Mrs Don and I are looking at a paper loss of around £200k - £250k over the last week. It would have been a ballsy call to buy enough TVIX to fully hedge that loss. Then again, that loss is just a paper loss against the highest MTM. Our average purchase price over the last 30 years is considerably lower than that. The hope and expectation is that, as we're continuing to invest in the market, this correction offers good value. Then again if this isn't merely a correction but is instead the start of a revaluation which will result in prices ending up at 10% or less of their value a week ago then that's an entirely different matter and our retirement plans are in pieces.

28th February 2020, 03:28 AM	#89
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,021	Originally Posted by The Don Good call on TVIX and in particular a good call on the exit approach which has meant that anyone who followed your advice is guaranteed profit. It shows that TA works as long as TA is short for The Atheist.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

28th February 2020, 04:37 AM	#90
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 63,193	Originally Posted by The Atheist 45 minutes later and futs are now down 440. More blood on the floor tomorrow. How low will it be when cases are in the millions? Coming soon to a planet near you. It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?
	__________________ You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.

28th February 2020, 05:19 AM	#91
Meadmaker Guest Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29,033	Originally Posted by The Atheist 20 minutes later, they're down 635. This brings back memories of '87, when the floor just kept dropping. Every time you think a low's been reached, it drops another 500. Uuuuugly stuff. (Unless you're in TVIX, which just cruised to $120.) Good analogy. And people who held their shares made a lot of money by 1988. I don't know that that will happen this year. Stocks, at least some of them, were pverpriced, so they might not come back to last week's level for years. However, I predict that they will go way down, perhaps even as far as The Atheist is predicting, and then they will come way back up, at least close to where they are now. Should you buy or sell today? I can't answer that. What I'm pretty sure of is that Amazon will be making a lot of money five years from now, whether or not they make a lot of money five months from now.
Meadmaker Guest Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29,033

28th February 2020, 06:16 AM	#92
shemp a flimsy character...perfidious and despised Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: People's Democratic Republic of Planet X Posts: 48,465	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of ~~both economic and viral~~ TRUMP disaster? FTFY
	__________________ Every time you feed a troll, God kills a kitten. Please stop killing kittens. No Klingon would put up with the GOP's ********. When you least expect it... EXPECT IT!

28th February 2020, 07:40 AM	#93
shemp a flimsy character...perfidious and despised Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: People's Democratic Republic of Planet X Posts: 48,465	And the Dow is already off about 500 today. Good thing I've got everything in the Under Shemp's Mattress Fund!
	__________________ Every time you feed a troll, God kills a kitten. Please stop killing kittens. No Klingon would put up with the GOP's ********. When you least expect it... EXPECT IT!

28th February 2020, 09:49 AM	#94
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	And then the not-so-clueless from https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-gl...213d28824.html "This will eventually end badly. I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now," Scott Minerd, global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, writes in a note. "The cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning." From Feb 13 when markets were flying high but blind as a bat. https://www.guggenheiminvestments.co...global-economy
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

28th February 2020, 09:56 AM	#95
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Originally Posted by The Don Then again, that loss is just a paper loss against the highest MTM. Our average purchase price over the last 30 years is considerably lower than that. The hope and expectation is that, as we're continuing to invest in the market, this correction offers good value. Then again if this isn't merely a correction but is instead the start of a revaluation which will result in prices ending up at 10% or less of their value a week ago then that's an entirely different matter and our retirement plans are in pieces. I'd certainly be holding off until the market finds the bottom - I think it has a long way to go yet. I'm sticking by my statement that this will be the greatest economic shock since 1929. What does surprise me is the commodity crash. Gold's off $50 today and I can't find anything in the black. Even Bitcoin has dropped like a stone. Originally Posted by TragicMonkey It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster? No.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 10:16 AM	#96
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Dow down 700 and still going...
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 10:27 AM	#97
William Parcher Show me the monkey! Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25,995	Mondays can be very black. What is the allowable freefall limit before the market gets shut down?
	__________________ Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.

28th February 2020, 11:13 AM	#98
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	Originally Posted by William Parcher Mondays can be very black. What is the allowable freefall limit before the market gets shut down? Various short term percentages from 7% to 20% of the SP500. 20% shuts down for the rest of the day. That would be about 5000 Dow. Currently. Click bait media has been harping on the "Largest Dow drop in History" but that's in point terms. What counts are percentages.
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

28th February 2020, 12:58 PM	#99
Dr. Keith Not a doctor. Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Texas Posts: 25,046	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey God must love me. I was actually cashing some things out to pay for upcoming dental work, and sold my Disney stock last week when it was at 140. Today it's at 118. I had similar good luck, but my wife gets credit. We sold some property at the end of last year and have way more cash than usual in our savings account. I wanted to put it in the market, but we will likely be spending most of it on other real estate over the next three years, so she wanted to keep it as cash. So, as the rest of our portfolio is likely crashing (I don't dare look) that chunk is safe and sound earning almost no interest.
	__________________ Suffering is not a punishment not a fruit of sin, it is a gift of God. He allows us to share in His suffering and to make up for the sins of the world. -Mother Teresa If I had a pet panda I would name it Snowflake.

28th February 2020, 01:28 PM	#100
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 55,454	Originally Posted by Dr. Keith I had similar good luck, but my wife gets credit. We sold some property at the end of last year and have way more cash than usual in our savings account. I wanted to put it in the market, but we will likely be spending most of it on other real estate over the next three years, so she wanted to keep it as cash. So, as the rest of our portfolio is likely crashing (I don't dare look) that chunk is safe and sound earning almost no interest. Don't forget Brains Gremlin investment advice in "Gremlins 2": "I am telling all my clients to invest in Canned Foods and Shotguns".
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

28th February 2020, 01:37 PM	#101
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	My expectation is that most non-cash assets will drop a lot as social distancing cuts in. Exceptions are cash equivs like govt bonds. Corporate bonds are another matter. I expect interest rates on them to push upward. Especially those where corporations have higher ratios of debt to accounts receivables. Shortages will appear. At first this will be mitigated by the strong drop in demand. Many months from now shortages will start to dominate and impact prices and that will put pressure on govt bonds. The debt overhang can't be paid after the economic downturn. Various things can be done. Bail-ins, a tax on cash. They will have to go where the money is and "is" becomes a "was." There will be general debt "restructuring." The Great Recession" of 2009 suggests 5 years on we may call the coming period "The Great Restructuring." And life will go on.
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

28th February 2020, 02:02 PM	#102
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	And don't expect the markets to turn any time soon - the bleeding market's only just closed and futures are down another 500 already. In the space of a week, the market has passed through "correction" and is about a day away from bear status.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 02:28 PM	#103
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	Originally Posted by The Atheist And don't expect the markets to turn any time soon - the bleeding market's only just closed and futures are down another 500 already. Not just the stock market. I expect home prices to plummet. Especially in Calif. where I live. The state strongly depends on tax income from cap gains (taxed at a high rate and, like other state and property taxes, not deductible federally beyond 10k). And we ramp spending like drunken sailors during boom times. State revenues are going to shrink. A lot and make federal revenue drops look pale. It's going to be ugly.
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

28th February 2020, 02:40 PM	#104
Meridian Critical Thinker Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 275	Originally Posted by The Atheist And don't expect the markets to turn any time soon - the bleeding market's only just closed and futures are down another 500 already. Any theories as to why TVIX has fallen back from $120 to just below $100 at/just after close of trading?
Meridian Critical Thinker Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 275

28th February 2020, 02:47 PM	#105
Tippit Guest Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Florida Posts: 4,038	Originally Posted by marting And then the not-so-clueless from https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-gl...213d28824.html "This will eventually end badly. I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now," Scott Minerd, global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, writes in a note. "The cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning." From Feb 13 when markets were flying high but blind as a bat. https://www.guggenheiminvestments.co...global-economy For a little more context, Minerd made a bullish call on silver. I've been heavily invested in silver as well as silver shares for a long time, so that was good news to me. But for the last few days, I've been absolutely getting slaughtered. I think there are two reasons for this, one, silver has many industrial applications, and if the global economy is going to fall off of a cliff, it's going to curb that portion of demand for silver. Two, it is the most highly manipulated asset in the world. Here is why: Ted Butler: The Genius Of JP Morgan, The Profit-Generating Machine Bear Stearns Déjà vu? So far Minerd has been dead right about the market, and dead wrong on silver. I'm not sure whether he is aware of the manipulation, or whether he thinks it is going to end sometime soon, but I'm hoping he will be right about that as well. In case you were wondering why seven of some of the largest banks in the world would manipulate gold and silver, the answer is that they want to condition investors away from investing in any physical, independent store of value as a safe haven, so that they invest in the multi-trillion dollar US Government bond market instead. So far, it's working and they've been highly successful. I'm trying to imagine what the catalyst would be for that to change.

28th February 2020, 02:52 PM	#106
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 55,454	Originally Posted by marting Not just the stock market. I expect home prices to plummet. Especially in Calif. where I live. The state strongly depends on tax income from cap gains (taxed at a high rate and, like other state and property taxes, not deductible federally beyond 10k). And we ramp spending like drunken sailors during boom times. State revenues are going to shrink. A lot and make federal revenue drops look pale. It's going to be ugly. Well, that's one way to solve the California housing crisis....
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

28th February 2020, 02:54 PM	#107
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 55,454	Originally Posted by Tippit For a little more context, Minerd made a bullish call on silver. I've been heavily invested in silver as well as silver shares for a long time, so that was good news to me. But for the last few days, I've been absolutely getting slaughtered. I think there are two reasons for this, one, silver has many industrial applications, and if the global economy is going to fall off of a cliff, it's going to curb that portion of demand for silver. Two, it is the most highly manipulated asset in the world. Here is why: Ted Butler: The Genius Of JP Morgan, The Profit-Generating Machine Bear Stearns Déjà vu? So far Minerd has been dead right about the market, and dead wrong on silver. I'm not sure whether he is aware of the manipulation, or whether he thinks it is going to end sometime soon, but I'm hoping he will be right about that as well. In case you were wondering why seven of some of the largest banks in the world would manipulate gold and silver, the answer is that they want to condition investors away from investing in any physical, independent store of value as a safe haven, so that they invest in the multi-trillion dollar US Government bond market instead. So far, it's working and they've been highly successful. I'm trying to imagine what the catalyst would be for that to change. I think is it moving ,for some people, away from just maintain their wealth, and more to sheer survival. Sell your stocks, store up on Canned goods, MRE's and firearms. Or, if you want to invest in stocks, invest in companies making the above items.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

28th February 2020, 02:57 PM	#108
Tippit Guest Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Florida Posts: 4,038	Originally Posted by Meridian Any theories as to why TVIX has fallen back from $120 to just below $100 at/just after close of trading? TIVX is leveraged, and investors might be anticipating a short term top in volatility. There are other leveraged options to capitalize on a bear market, for instance any of the 3x leveraged bear ETFs, like SPXS, the S&P 500 3x leveraged bear fund. You can google for lists of these types of funds, but beware, the risks are commensurate with the rewards. If you think the market is going straight down, you will probably make more money with the 3x inverse leveraged funds than you will with a VIX fund. If you think there will be a snapback rally OR more downside, the VIX fund might still be appropriate. If you think the market is going to churn at these levels for a while, you probably want to consider selling TIVX. Do your homework.
	Last edited by Tippit; 28th February 2020 at 03:00 PM.

28th February 2020, 03:06 PM	#109
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,242	I'm going all in on Bitcoin.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

28th February 2020, 03:06 PM	#110
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 55,454	At the White House this morning, the WAPO reports the main topic was not controlling the virus but how to prop up the markets. A new Tax Cut was the favorite...… God, don't they realise that a Good program in place to handle the Corona Virus is the best way to stop the stock market panic? Usual methods are not going to work this time. Pure fear has taken over.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

28th February 2020, 03:33 PM	#111
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	Originally Posted by dudalb At the White House this morning, the WAPO reports the main topic was not controlling the virus but how to prop up the markets. A new Tax Cut was the favorite...… Are you surprised? I'm not.
marting Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,310	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

28th February 2020, 03:45 PM	#112
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 31,885	Originally Posted by marting Not just the stock market. I expect home prices to plummet. Especially in Calif. where I live. Yep. I've been having a laugh at our real estate people who've been picking 10% increases this year. Good luck on that. Maybe 10% decrease. Originally Posted by Meridian Any theories as to why TVIX has fallen back from $120 to just below $100 at/just after close of trading? A bit of upward pressure on futures, added to very thin volume. Probably a few sensible profit-takers, too. Already back to $105. Trading on shut markets is a good way to lose your shirt any time. They can move a mile in an instant because there aren't enough players to soak up the volatility.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

28th February 2020, 03:53 PM	#113
William Parcher Show me the monkey! Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25,995	Washington Post now has breaking news of a second mystery origin infected in California. They are saying it looks like it's in the wild now. That may cause a very black Monday.
	__________________ Bigfoot believers and Bigfoot skeptics are both plumb crazy. Each spends more than one minute per year thinking about Bigfoot.

28th February 2020, 04:19 PM	#114
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 55,454	God, with the news of the Santa Clara outbreak, Monday is probably going to be a real bloodbath on Wall Street.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

28th February 2020, 04:20 PM	#115
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 55,454	Originally Posted by marting Are you surprised? I'm not. Nope, not surprised at all,just reporting the expected. That showing he has viable plan to fight the virus would be the single best thing he could do to calm the markets down seems beyond his reach.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.