The Boris Johnson ousting prediction thread

GlennB · 12th January 2022, 05:22 PM

The date of 'ousting' includes plain resignation or the announcement of the start of Tory voting for his successor. Maybe keep your predictions to a half of a single month, though it's more a bit of fun (if anything in his administration can be described as 'fun') than an actual competition*

'Not this year' is a valid entry.

I'll kick off with first half of March '22

*The worst predictor will switch their avatar to 'Mr Blobby' for 2 weeks. I will provide a very nice .jpeg of Blobby

angrysoba · 12th January 2022, 05:25 PM

Early Feb of this year.

Then we can welcome PM Patel!

GlennB · 12th January 2022, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Early Feb of this year.

Then we can welcome PM Patel!

In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch!

angrysoba · 12th January 2022, 05:34 PM

Originally Posted by GlennB

In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch!

You can thank me for that!

GlennB · 12th January 2022, 05:48 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

You can thank me for that!

** hic **

Guybrush Threepwood · 12th January 2022, 06:35 PM

15th of March would seem the appropriate date for a narcissist historian

So I'll go with that

rjh01 · 12th January 2022, 09:14 PM

I will put my prediction on the last half of January 2022.

Mike! · 12th January 2022, 09:21 PM

I'll take April First.
Where do I put my dollar?

Sideroxylon · 12th January 2022, 09:50 PM

Next Tuesday.

lionking · 12th January 2022, 09:55 PM

Next election.

The Don · 12th January 2022, 11:22 PM

After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.

angrysoba · 12th January 2022, 11:42 PM

Originally Posted by The Don

After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.

Depends.

I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done.

There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for.

The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.

The Don · 13th January 2022, 12:37 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Depends.

I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done.

Truu, but this would require a seismic shift in the Tory rank and file. In the same way that the GOP is absolutely President Trump's party, Boris Johnson is consistently popular within the party.

Getting rid of Boris Johnson as leader raises the prospect of a person of colour (Sunak, Patel, Javid) leading the party - something that wouldn't go down well with the blue-rinses in the shires - or Liz Truss. That alone may be sufficient to stop a campaign to oust Boris Johnson.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for.

As long as Boris Johnson can pass the blame onto subordinates (as has been the case so far) then he can continue to claim that he personally has behaved properly and legally and he's very, very sorry for the liberties that other people have taken.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.

In the current parliamentary Conservative Party there are plenty who make Boris Johnson look comparatively normal so I wouldn't read too much into that.

Sunak aside, ministers have backed Boris Johnson 100%, and a number of senior backbenchers have also given him the thumbs-up.

There are a very few senior backbenchers who have gone public with their criticisms (and allegedly more who are willing to do so off the record) but that itself may provide encouragement for Boris Johnson. The 1922 Committee is in effect trying to rehabilitate the Tories in the eyes of the public. If they actually wanted him gone, he'd be gone already with no warning and no opportunity to attempt a rear-guard action.

lionking · 13th January 2022, 01:18 AM

Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village.

But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous.

I will be very happy to be proven wrong.

The Don · 13th January 2022, 01:28 AM

Originally Posted by lionking

Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village.

But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous.

I will be very happy to be proven wrong.

It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.

lionking · 13th January 2022, 01:35 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.

Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better

Dave Rogers · 13th January 2022, 02:40 AM

Originally Posted by lionking

Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better

That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma.

Dave

The Don · 13th January 2022, 02:51 AM

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers

That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma.

Dave

It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant.

That ship seems to have sailed.

P.J. Denyer · 13th January 2022, 02:53 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.

Disturbingly the highlighted seems to count against him with a lot of people on both sides...

I have a great concern that with reduced EU immigration being, necessarily, replaced by higher immigration from other nations it's going to lead to a shift even further right for the significant number of people for whom this is an issue.

So far as the question goes I'm torn, I think he'll either go very quickly because he doesn't think it's worth it for him anymore (stuff his backers, but that's his attitude) or because his party oust him, or if he survives this scandal he'll cling on for months, possibly to the next election or beyond. I'm going to tentatively go for very early February but I wouldn't be surprised to be too late or really, really early.

zooterkin · 13th January 2022, 03:01 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant.

That ship seems to have sailed.

Did someone call?

P1580580.jpg by zooterkin, on Flickr

Darat · 13th January 2022, 04:24 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.

This.

Lothian · 13th January 2022, 04:59 AM

23/11/22 4:05 pm

Filippo Lippi · 13th January 2022, 03:49 PM

With the latest revelations, I think* he won't last the weekend

*hope

angrysoba · 13th January 2022, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better

The thing is that conmen are, by their nature, extremely charismatic. This is why they are good at being populist politicians (or peddlers of alternative medicine, used car salesmen, pyramid sellers, podcast/You Tube propagandists...etc...)

This is basically how we ended up in much of the mess we are in now re: Brexit in the UK, Trump in the US, skepticism on good science because of smooth-talking quacks and charlatans, etc...

MarkCorrigan · 13th January 2022, 05:04 PM

June. I hope it's way before then (tonight would be good!) but I think he'll hang on for another 6 months of joyless nonsense before we have another joyless idiot like Gove or (god help us all) Patel.

The only one of the current crop of high profile Tories who isn't a lunatic, scumbag, moron or some combination of all three seems to be Sunak. I don't like Sunak, but he at least seems to be sane and intelligent, and he isn't a vicious psychopath like Patel or a regressive whackjob like Rees-Mogg.

a_unique_person · 13th January 2022, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by lionking

Next election.

Not long before the next election.

BillC · 14th January 2022, 07:30 AM

Back on 17 December I predicted the middle of January, which doesn't look like it's on, but before the end of the month is possible.

Orphia Nay · 14th January 2022, 07:35 PM

By the end of this coming week.

ginjawarrior · 15th January 2022, 01:06 PM

How quickly can we get traitors gate back up and running.

I think he'll be out by end of January but really think the british public need to see his head on a spike overlooking the Thames..

angrysoba · 15th January 2022, 01:16 PM

What would we need to see for Johnson to be toast and are we seeing it?

I would think we would need to see some obvious groundswell of negative opinion among Tory voters, editorials in the right-wing press (particularly Telegraph, Mail and the Sun), maybe some prominent parliamentary MP speaking out.

Have we seen any of these things yet?

angrysoba · 15th January 2022, 01:21 PM

“Boris is toast” is in the Mail and says 12 MPs have spoken out about Johnson. I have not heard of any of them.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ticism-PM.html

I think one wrinkle for any would-be leader who takes over is whether they were at one of Johnson’s parties, or one of their own, or could not deny they knew of them. It wouldn’t be worth it for any of those to try to take over from Johnson as it would be burning their bridges with one section of the party only to risk complete oblivion if the truth gets out.

ginjawarrior · 15th January 2022, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

What would we need to see for Johnson to be toast and are we seeing it?

Panic buying of pitchforks....?

GlennB · 15th January 2022, 04:15 PM

"Tory MPs will be ready in sufficient numbers to force Boris Johnson out of Downing Street within weeks if he tries to dodge responsibility for rule-breaking parties at No 10, the Observer has been told." Guardian

But then, if he does accept responsibility, how can he avoid resignation? It really looks like a goose-is-cooked-one-way-or-another situation to me. Is it code for allowing him the 'honourable' way out, rather than being ignominiously kicked out?

BillC · 16th January 2022, 01:22 AM

What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?

GraculusTheGreenBird · 16th January 2022, 03:58 AM

Originally Posted by BillC

What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?

Indeed. Just look at his track record and history. It was completely obvious he was incompetent and untrustworthy. Everything about his past made that clear.

But it was Brexit, pure and simple. I don't think he would have stood a chance of becoming leader in any other situation.

Carrot Flower King · 17th January 2022, 02:35 AM

Originally Posted by BillC

What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?

Beats me, as it's been obvious all along what he actually is.

However, some are either unable to see through the "Boris" schtick or plain don't care; we still vividly recall a vox pop broadcast of PM from Blyth in which someone bleated (if you heard it that is how they sounded) "But I just like him!"

The Don · 17th January 2022, 02:53 AM

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

Beats me, as it's been obvious all along what he actually is.

However, some are either unable to see through the "Boris" schtick or plain don't care; we still vividly recall a vox pop broadcast of PM from Blyth in which someone bleated (if you heard it that is how they sounded) "But I just like him!"

Amazingly, a lot of people like the character that Boris Johnson plays on TV. The idea of a toff who's a bit dotty and dishevelled while at the same time showing how clever they are by throwing out the odd Latin tag seems to be appealing to a significant chunk of the British electorate. The idea that someone isn't trying too hard seems to appeal.

Maybe we've been conditioned by decades of Wodehouse characters and the like.

Even now, I reckon a large number of people still like him despite all the "Partygate" allegations because he's just BoJo being BoJo.

Carrot Flower King · 17th January 2022, 10:51 AM

^I mean, I like Wodehouse as much as anyone, but I wouldn't want Bertie Wooster in charge of anything more complex than a blunt pencil; Jeeves would be another thing altogether...

BlowJob doesn't have a Jeeves though...

The Don · 17th January 2022, 11:08 AM

Looks like the mood is changing

MPs are waiting for the report of the investigation into Partygate before doing anything. The leaks from the report are pretty clear that Boris Johnson will not even have been found to have broken the Ministerial Code much less have done anything illegal.

He'll be fully exonerated, a few civil servants will have to fall on their swords and Boris Johnson will be given yet another"last chance" by the craven sociopaths who constitute the Parliamentary Conservative Party.

....and in a few weeks once everything is back to normal, the majority of the electorate will have forgotten their anger and go back to liking good old BoJo.

Lothian · 17th January 2022, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

...

BlowJob doesn't have a Jeeves though...

When he was elected the spin was that while Johnson could be a bit of a jolly chap making japes he had an incredible skill for surrounding himself with fantastic talented people. Wonder why that narrative was dropped.

12th January 2022, 05:22 PM	#1
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Wales Posts: 28,000	The Boris Johnson ousting prediction thread The date of 'ousting' includes plain resignation or the announcement of the start of Tory voting for his successor. Maybe keep your predictions to a half of a single month, though it's more a bit of fun (if anything in his administration can be described as 'fun') than an actual competition* 'Not this year' is a valid entry. I'll kick off with first half of March '22 *The worst predictor will switch their avatar to 'Mr Blobby' for 2 weeks. I will provide a very nice .jpeg of Blobby
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

12th January 2022, 05:25 PM	#2
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,921	Early Feb of this year. Then we can welcome PM Patel!
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12th January 2022, 05:33 PM	#3
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Wales Posts: 28,000	Originally Posted by angrysoba Early Feb of this year. Then we can welcome PM Patel! In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch!
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

12th January 2022, 05:34 PM	#4
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,921	Originally Posted by GlennB In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch! You can thank me for that!
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

12th January 2022, 05:48 PM	#5
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Wales Posts: 28,000	Originally Posted by angrysoba You can thank me for that! hic
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

12th January 2022, 06:35 PM	#6
Guybrush Threepwood Trainee Pirate Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: An Uaimh Posts: 3,342	15th of March would seem the appropriate date for a narcissist historian So I'll go with that

12th January 2022, 09:14 PM	#7
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Flying around in the sky Posts: 27,328	I will put my prediction on the last half of January 2022.
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12th January 2022, 09:21 PM	#8
Mike! Official Ponylandistanian National Treasure. Respect it! Join Date: May 2010 Location: Ponylandistan! Where the bacon grows on trees! Can it get any better than that? I submit it can not! Posts: 45,862	I'll take April First. Where do I put my dollar?
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12th January 2022, 09:50 PM	#9
Sideroxylon Featherless biped Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Aporia Posts: 26,422	Next Tuesday.

12th January 2022, 09:55 PM	#10
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 49,902	Next election.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

12th January 2022, 11:22 PM	#11
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,415	After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it. After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out. After another couple of rounds of sleaze. About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.

12th January 2022, 11:42 PM	#12
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,921	Originally Posted by The Don After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it. After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out. After another couple of rounds of sleaze. About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority. Depends. I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done. There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for. The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.
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13th January 2022, 12:37 AM	#13
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,415	Originally Posted by angrysoba Depends. I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done. Truu, but this would require a seismic shift in the Tory rank and file. In the same way that the GOP is absolutely President Trump's party, Boris Johnson is consistently popular within the party. Getting rid of Boris Johnson as leader raises the prospect of a person of colour (Sunak, Patel, Javid) leading the party - something that wouldn't go down well with the blue-rinses in the shires - or Liz Truss. That alone may be sufficient to stop a campaign to oust Boris Johnson. Originally Posted by angrysoba There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for. As long as Boris Johnson can pass the blame onto subordinates (as has been the case so far) then he can continue to claim that he personally has behaved properly and legally and he's very, very sorry for the liberties that other people have taken. Originally Posted by angrysoba The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public. In the current parliamentary Conservative Party there are plenty who make Boris Johnson look comparatively normal so I wouldn't read too much into that. Sunak aside, ministers have backed Boris Johnson 100%, and a number of senior backbenchers have also given him the thumbs-up. There are a very few senior backbenchers who have gone public with their criticisms (and allegedly more who are willing to do so off the record) but that itself may provide encouragement for Boris Johnson. The 1922 Committee is in effect trying to rehabilitate the Tories in the eyes of the public. If they actually wanted him gone, he'd be gone already with no warning and no opportunity to attempt a rear-guard action.
	Last edited by The Don; 13th January 2022 at 12:57 AM.

13th January 2022, 01:18 AM	#14
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 49,902	Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village. But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous. I will be very happy to be proven wrong.
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

13th January 2022, 01:28 AM	#15
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,415	Originally Posted by lionking Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village. But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous. I will be very happy to be proven wrong. It is ? Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass. The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them. Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.

13th January 2022, 01:35 AM	#16
lionking In the Peanut Gallery Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Melbourne Posts: 49,902	Originally Posted by The Don It is ? Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass. The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them. Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants. Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better
	__________________ A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. Sir Winston Churchill

13th January 2022, 02:40 AM	#17
Dave Rogers Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD Posts: 33,342	Originally Posted by lionking Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma. Dave
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13th January 2022, 02:51 AM	#18
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 34,415	Originally Posted by Dave Rogers That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma. Dave It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant. That ship seems to have sailed.

13th January 2022, 02:53 AM	#19
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	Originally Posted by The Don It is ? Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass. The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them. Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants. Disturbingly the highlighted seems to count against him with a lot of people on both sides... I have a great concern that with reduced EU immigration being, necessarily, replaced by higher immigration from other nations it's going to lead to a shift even further right for the significant number of people for whom this is an issue. So far as the question goes I'm torn, I think he'll either go very quickly because he doesn't think it's worth it for him anymore (stuff his backers, but that's his attitude) or because his party oust him, or if he survives this scandal he'll cling on for months, possibly to the next election or beyond. I'm going to tentatively go for very early February but I wouldn't be surprised to be too late or really, really early.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,732	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

13th January 2022, 03:01 AM	#20
zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 52,402	Originally Posted by The Don It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant. That ship seems to have sailed. Did someone call? P1580580.jpg by zooterkin, on Flickr
	__________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20

13th January 2022, 04:24 AM	#21
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 102,473	Originally Posted by The Don After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it. After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out. After another couple of rounds of sleaze. About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority. This.
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

13th January 2022, 04:59 AM	#22
Lothian should be banned Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside Posts: 17,511	23/11/22 4:05 pm

13th January 2022, 03:49 PM	#23
Filippo Lippi Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 3,877	With the latest revelations, I think* he won't last the weekend *hope
	__________________ You can't defeat fascism through debate because it's not simply an idea, proposal or theory. It's a fundamentally flawed way of looking at the world. It's a distorting prism, emotionally charged and completely logic-proof. You may as well challenge rabies to a game of Boggle. @ViolettaCrisis

13th January 2022, 04:35 PM	#24
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,921	Originally Posted by lionking Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better The thing is that conmen are, by their nature, extremely charismatic. This is why they are good at being populist politicians (or peddlers of alternative medicine, used car salesmen, pyramid sellers, podcast/You Tube propagandists...etc...) This is basically how we ended up in much of the mess we are in now re: Brexit in the UK, Trump in the US, skepticism on good science because of smooth-talking quacks and charlatans, etc...
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

13th January 2022, 05:04 PM	#25
MarkCorrigan ¡No pasarán! Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Слава Україні Posts: 11,126	June. I hope it's way before then (tonight would be good!) but I think he'll hang on for another 6 months of joyless nonsense before we have another joyless idiot like Gove or (god help us all) Patel. The only one of the current crop of high profile Tories who isn't a lunatic, scumbag, moron or some combination of all three seems to be Sunak. I don't like Sunak, but he at least seems to be sane and intelligent, and he isn't a vicious psychopath like Patel or a regressive whackjob like Rees-Mogg.
	__________________ Naturalism adjusts it's principles to fit with the observed data. It's a god of the facts world view. -joobz When I give food to the poor, they call me a Saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a Communist. - Hélder Câmara

13th January 2022, 07:17 PM	#26
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Waiting for the pod bay door to open. Posts: 44,250	Originally Posted by lionking Next election. Not long before the next election.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. “Perception is real, but the truth is not.” - Imelda Marcos

14th January 2022, 07:30 AM	#27
BillC Bazooka Joe Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 5,196	Back on 17 December I predicted the middle of January, which doesn't look like it's on, but before the end of the month is possible.
BillC Bazooka Joe Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 5,196

14th January 2022, 07:35 PM	#28
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Photo Contest Winner Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 40,460	By the end of this coming week.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

15th January 2022, 01:06 PM	#29
ginjawarrior Critical Thinker Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 277	How quickly can we get traitors gate back up and running. I think he'll be out by end of January but really think the british public need to see his head on a spike overlooking the Thames..

15th January 2022, 01:16 PM	#30
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,921	What would we need to see for Johnson to be toast and are we seeing it? I would think we would need to see some obvious groundswell of negative opinion among Tory voters, editorials in the right-wing press (particularly Telegraph, Mail and the Sun), maybe some prominent parliamentary MP speaking out. Have we seen any of these things yet?
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

15th January 2022, 01:21 PM	#31
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 32,921	“Boris is toast” is in the Mail and says 12 MPs have spoken out about Johnson. I have not heard of any of them. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ticism-PM.html I think one wrinkle for any would-be leader who takes over is whether they were at one of Johnson’s parties, or one of their own, or could not deny they knew of them. It wouldn’t be worth it for any of those to try to take over from Johnson as it would be burning their bridges with one section of the party only to risk complete oblivion if the truth gets out.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

15th January 2022, 01:24 PM	#32
ginjawarrior Critical Thinker Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 277	Originally Posted by angrysoba What would we need to see for Johnson to be toast and are we seeing it? Panic buying of pitchforks....?

15th January 2022, 04:15 PM	#33
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Wales Posts: 28,000	"Tory MPs will be ready in sufficient numbers to force Boris Johnson out of Downing Street within weeks if he tries to dodge responsibility for rule-breaking parties at No 10, the Observer has been told." Guardian But then, if he does accept responsibility, how can he avoid resignation? It really looks like a goose-is-cooked-one-way-or-another situation to me. Is it code for allowing him the 'honourable' way out, rather than being ignominiously kicked out?
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

16th January 2022, 01:22 AM	#34
BillC Bazooka Joe Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 5,196	What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?
BillC Bazooka Joe Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 5,196

16th January 2022, 03:58 AM	#35
GraculusTheGreenBird Critical Thinker Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 474	Originally Posted by BillC What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was? Indeed. Just look at his track record and history. It was completely obvious he was incompetent and untrustworthy. Everything about his past made that clear. But it was Brexit, pure and simple. I don't think he would have stood a chance of becoming leader in any other situation.