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Tags Boris Johnson , political predictions , prediction thread , uk politics

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Old 12th January 2022, 05:22 PM   #1
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The Boris Johnson ousting prediction thread

The date of 'ousting' includes plain resignation or the announcement of the start of Tory voting for his successor. Maybe keep your predictions to a half of a single month, though it's more a bit of fun (if anything in his administration can be described as 'fun') than an actual competition*

'Not this year' is a valid entry.

I'll kick off with first half of March '22

*The worst predictor will switch their avatar to 'Mr Blobby' for 2 weeks. I will provide a very nice .jpeg of Blobby
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Old 12th January 2022, 05:25 PM   #2
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Early Feb of this year. Then we can welcome PM Patel!
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Old 12th January 2022, 05:33 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Early Feb of this year. Then we can welcome PM Patel!
In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch!
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Old 12th January 2022, 05:34 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch!
You can thank me for that!
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Old 12th January 2022, 05:48 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
You can thank me for that!
** hic **
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Old 12th January 2022, 06:35 PM   #6
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15th of March would seem the appropriate date for a narcissist historian

So I'll go with that
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Old 12th January 2022, 09:14 PM   #7
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I will put my prediction on the last half of January 2022.
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Old 12th January 2022, 09:21 PM   #8
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I'll take April First.
Where do I put my dollar?
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Old 12th January 2022, 09:50 PM   #9
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Next Tuesday.
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Old 12th January 2022, 09:55 PM   #10
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Next election.
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Old 12th January 2022, 11:22 PM   #11
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After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.
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Old 12th January 2022, 11:42 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.
Depends.

I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done.

There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for.

The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.
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Old 13th January 2022, 12:37 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Depends.

I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done.
Truu, but this would require a seismic shift in the Tory rank and file. In the same way that the GOP is absolutely President Trump's party, Boris Johnson is consistently popular within the party.

Getting rid of Boris Johnson as leader raises the prospect of a person of colour (Sunak, Patel, Javid) leading the party - something that wouldn't go down well with the blue-rinses in the shires - or Liz Truss. That alone may be sufficient to stop a campaign to oust Boris Johnson.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for.
As long as Boris Johnson can pass the blame onto subordinates (as has been the case so far) then he can continue to claim that he personally has behaved properly and legally and he's very, very sorry for the liberties that other people have taken.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.
In the current parliamentary Conservative Party there are plenty who make Boris Johnson look comparatively normal so I wouldn't read too much into that.

Sunak aside, ministers have backed Boris Johnson 100%, and a number of senior backbenchers have also given him the thumbs-up.

There are a very few senior backbenchers who have gone public with their criticisms (and allegedly more who are willing to do so off the record) but that itself may provide encouragement for Boris Johnson. The 1922 Committee is in effect trying to rehabilitate the Tories in the eyes of the public. If they actually wanted him gone, he'd be gone already with no warning and no opportunity to attempt a rear-guard action.

Last edited by The Don; 13th January 2022 at 12:57 AM.
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Old 13th January 2022, 01:18 AM   #14
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Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village.

But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous.

I will be very happy to be proven wrong.
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Old 13th January 2022, 01:28 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village.

But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous.

I will be very happy to be proven wrong.
It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.
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Old 13th January 2022, 01:35 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.
Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better
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Old 13th January 2022, 02:40 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better
That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma.

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Old 13th January 2022, 02:51 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma.

Dave
It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant.

That ship seems to have sailed.
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Old 13th January 2022, 02:53 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants.
Disturbingly the highlighted seems to count against him with a lot of people on both sides...

I have a great concern that with reduced EU immigration being, necessarily, replaced by higher immigration from other nations it's going to lead to a shift even further right for the significant number of people for whom this is an issue.

So far as the question goes I'm torn, I think he'll either go very quickly because he doesn't think it's worth it for him anymore (stuff his backers, but that's his attitude) or because his party oust him, or if he survives this scandal he'll cling on for months, possibly to the next election or beyond. I'm going to tentatively go for very early February but I wouldn't be surprised to be too late or really, really early.
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Old 13th January 2022, 03:01 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant.

That ship seems to have sailed.
Did someone call?


P1580580.jpg by zooterkin, on Flickr
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Old 13th January 2022, 04:24 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.
This.
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Old 13th January 2022, 04:59 AM   #22
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Old 13th January 2022, 03:49 PM   #23
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With the latest revelations, I think* he won't last the weekend


*hope
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Old 13th January 2022, 04:35 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better
The thing is that conmen are, by their nature, extremely charismatic. This is why they are good at being populist politicians (or peddlers of alternative medicine, used car salesmen, pyramid sellers, podcast/You Tube propagandists...etc...)

This is basically how we ended up in much of the mess we are in now re: Brexit in the UK, Trump in the US, skepticism on good science because of smooth-talking quacks and charlatans, etc...
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Old 13th January 2022, 05:04 PM   #25
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June. I hope it's way before then (tonight would be good!) but I think he'll hang on for another 6 months of joyless nonsense before we have another joyless idiot like Gove or (god help us all) Patel.

The only one of the current crop of high profile Tories who isn't a lunatic, scumbag, moron or some combination of all three seems to be Sunak. I don't like Sunak, but he at least seems to be sane and intelligent, and he isn't a vicious psychopath like Patel or a regressive whackjob like Rees-Mogg.
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Old 13th January 2022, 07:17 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Next election.
Not long before the next election.
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Old 14th January 2022, 07:30 AM   #27
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Back on 17 December I predicted the middle of January, which doesn't look like it's on, but before the end of the month is possible.
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Old 14th January 2022, 07:35 PM   #28
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By the end of this coming week.
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Old 15th January 2022, 01:06 PM   #29
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How quickly can we get traitors gate back up and running.

I think he'll be out by end of January but really think the british public need to see his head on a spike overlooking the Thames..
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Old 15th January 2022, 01:16 PM   #30
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What would we need to see for Johnson to be toast and are we seeing it?

I would think we would need to see some obvious groundswell of negative opinion among Tory voters, editorials in the right-wing press (particularly Telegraph, Mail and the Sun), maybe some prominent parliamentary MP speaking out.

Have we seen any of these things yet?
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Old 15th January 2022, 01:21 PM   #31
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“Boris is toast” is in the Mail and says 12 MPs have spoken out about Johnson. I have not heard of any of them.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ticism-PM.html

I think one wrinkle for any would-be leader who takes over is whether they were at one of Johnson’s parties, or one of their own, or could not deny they knew of them. It wouldn’t be worth it for any of those to try to take over from Johnson as it would be burning their bridges with one section of the party only to risk complete oblivion if the truth gets out.
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Old 15th January 2022, 01:24 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
What would we need to see for Johnson to be toast and are we seeing it?
Panic buying of pitchforks....?
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Old 15th January 2022, 04:15 PM   #33
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"Tory MPs will be ready in sufficient numbers to force Boris Johnson out of Downing Street within weeks if he tries to dodge responsibility for rule-breaking parties at No 10, the Observer has been told." Guardian

But then, if he does accept responsibility, how can he avoid resignation? It really looks like a goose-is-cooked-one-way-or-another situation to me. Is it code for allowing him the 'honourable' way out, rather than being ignominiously kicked out?
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Old 16th January 2022, 01:22 AM   #34
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What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?
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Old 16th January 2022, 03:58 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by BillC View Post
What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?
Indeed. Just look at his track record and history. It was completely obvious he was incompetent and untrustworthy. Everything about his past made that clear.

But it was Brexit, pure and simple. I don't think he would have stood a chance of becoming leader in any other situation.
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Old 17th January 2022, 02:35 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by BillC View Post
What angers me about the precipitous fall in Johnson's ratings now, is why on earth did people not realise what sort of a person he was before they voted for him? This goes for the Conservative party in particular for electing him leader, but the entire country for voting him in in 2019. Did they think he was a lovable, scruffy buffoon on the outside, yet inside a responsible, wise administrator who was the country's best chance for prosperity? While this was very much the two-layered image he was keen to promote, how could anyone not see him for what he was?
Beats me, as it's been obvious all along what he actually is.

However, some are either unable to see through the "Boris" schtick or plain don't care; we still vividly recall a vox pop broadcast of PM from Blyth in which someone bleated (if you heard it that is how they sounded) "But I just like him!"
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Old 17th January 2022, 02:53 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
Beats me, as it's been obvious all along what he actually is.

However, some are either unable to see through the "Boris" schtick or plain don't care; we still vividly recall a vox pop broadcast of PM from Blyth in which someone bleated (if you heard it that is how they sounded) "But I just like him!"
Amazingly, a lot of people like the character that Boris Johnson plays on TV. The idea of a toff who's a bit dotty and dishevelled while at the same time showing how clever they are by throwing out the odd Latin tag seems to be appealing to a significant chunk of the British electorate. The idea that someone isn't trying too hard seems to appeal.

Maybe we've been conditioned by decades of Wodehouse characters and the like.

Even now, I reckon a large number of people still like him despite all the "Partygate" allegations because he's just BoJo being BoJo.
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Old 17th January 2022, 10:51 AM   #38
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^I mean, I like Wodehouse as much as anyone, but I wouldn't want Bertie Wooster in charge of anything more complex than a blunt pencil; Jeeves would be another thing altogether...

BlowJob doesn't have a Jeeves though...
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Old 17th January 2022, 11:08 AM   #39
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Looks like the mood is changing

MPs are waiting for the report of the investigation into Partygate before doing anything. The leaks from the report are pretty clear that Boris Johnson will not even have been found to have broken the Ministerial Code much less have done anything illegal.

He'll be fully exonerated, a few civil servants will have to fall on their swords and Boris Johnson will be given yet another"last chance" by the craven sociopaths who constitute the Parliamentary Conservative Party.

....and in a few weeks once everything is back to normal, the majority of the electorate will have forgotten their anger and go back to liking good old BoJo.
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Old 17th January 2022, 11:19 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
...

BlowJob doesn't have a Jeeves though...
When he was elected the spin was that while Johnson could be a bit of a jolly chap making japes he had an incredible skill for surrounding himself with fantastic talented people. Wonder why that narrative was dropped.
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