The 2022 Election

[Solitaire]

I finally found that advertisement I saw one morning
a few days ago. Fuse Ad on YouTube.

I'm like, "Now? You want to talk about politics now?"
August sure... But next year please.
I need a Rip van Winkle summer nap.


P. S. Salon article about the ad.

[JoeMorgue]

Ironically this sort of thing bothers me less and less as I get older because it just now feels like the political campaign season never stops in a very real sense.

It's a rather unpleasant and Draconian solution but it's much harder to complain that "already doing this again" when "this" never stops.

[The Great Zaganza]

I'm calling it now: landslide win for Trump Republicans, or it was rigged.
No need to actually vote.

[Stacyhs]

I'm sure Trump will just continue with the 'if we lose it's because it was rigged" routine. He's a one trick pony show.

[JoeMorgue]

I don't think yet another election cycle where every race is a meta-race about Trump is a good idea, but I also don't really see a way 2022 isn't going to wind up being exactly that.

[Delvo]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I don't think yet another election cycle where every race is a meta-race about Trump is a good idea, but I also don't really see a way 2022 isn't going to wind up being exactly that.

The Democrats could start focusing on the issues & policies that they know the people want... but they're too afraid of winning.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Delvo

The Democrats could start focusing on the issues & policies that they know the people want... but they're too afraid of winning.

Such as?

[mgidm86]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Ironically this sort of thing bothers me less and less as I get older because it just now feels like the political campaign season never stops in a very real sense.

It's a rather unpleasant and Draconian solution but it's much harder to complain that "already doing this again" when "this" never stops.

Reelection is considered in every move these people make. They are always campaigning. Every vote, every public comment - "how will this make me look?" The system is poo.

[heymatto70]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Such as?

Not halting the eviction moratorium would have been a good start.

[PhantomWolf]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

I'm sure Trump will just continue with the 'if we lose it's because it was rigged" routine. He's a one trick pony show.

Heck, he spent the first four years claiming that it was rigged when he won, why stop him from claiming it was rigged when he lost.

[Donal]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Such as?

$15 minimum wage.

Expanding Medicaid and Medicare.

Infrastructure spending.

Protecting voting rights.

Transfering off fossil fuels.

[Delvo]

Originally Posted by Donal

$15 minimum wage.

Expanding Medicaid and Medicare.

Infrastructure spending.

Protecting voting rights.

Transfering off fossil fuels.

On the minimum wage, really, 15 is already too low. If it had kept up with other relevant numbers like productivity or inflation, it would be around 18-23, so even settling for an increase to only 15 is still a step back, just less back than where we are now. But it's what people are talking about, so it's the wagon that's available to jump on. And they're not.

The one about health care is especially noteworthy to me because I recall being told during the primaries that I can't hold Biden's opposition to Medicare For All (including denials that it was opposition at all, but it clearly was; he said he'd veto it if Congress gave him a passed bill ready to sign) against him because at least he's in favor of vaguely "improving the ACA" and that's really the same thing. The first problem with that was that, no they are not the same (the ACA keeps the middlemen around whose sole role in the industry is to make it worse, and was deliberately designed explicitly for the purpose of protecting them), and the second is that he wasn't really interested in doing anything about it anyway. Now here we are watching him and most of the rest of his Party demonstrate how much he and they really care about that by how hard they're fighting for health care, and it's utter stillness... during a plague... the plague that got him/them the Presidency even during what was otherwise a losing year for them.

[JoeMorgue]

Do you want to be Apple or do you want to be Android? Do you to listen to what people want and give them that, or do you want to give people what you think they want?

This isn't a disingenuous questions by the way, because both methods work some of the time.

What never works is trying to do both.

Right now a lot of the Democratic Leadership has this "Trust me, you actually this stuff you don't think you'll will like if you just give it a try" thing going on and they might not be wrong, but they can't just pretend they don't live in a world where ~40% of the voting demographic will literally demonize any idea they have and support the opposite just to be a contrarian troll.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by heymatto70

Not halting the eviction moratorium would have been a good start.

The question was not about what the legislators could do as in your suggestion, which I agree with, but what the 'people' could do.

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Donal

$15 minimum wage.

Expanding Medicaid and Medicare.

Infrastructure spending.

Protecting voting rights.

Transfering off fossil fuels.

Again, the question was not about what the LEGISLATORS could do, but what the PEOPLE could do. All of the above is what LEGISLATORS can do. And I already said that the people have to vote for LEGISLATORS who agree with their political agendas.

[Thermal]

Trump 2022 for Florida Dog Catcher General!

"He's already got the whistle"

[Stacyhs]

Originally Posted by Thermal

Trump 2022 for Florida Dog Catcher General!

"He's already got the whistle"

[SuburbanTurkey]

My prediction is that the GOP takes the Senate and Breyer promptly follows RBG's lead and dies (or has to retire for medical reasons), setting us up for another extended obstruction of SCOTUS so that the right can put another one of their ghouls in place.

[Donal]

I wonder how many GQP candidates are going to run on 9/11 conspiracies. In honor of the 20th Anniversary.

[dirtywick]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

My prediction is that the GOP takes the Senate and Breyer promptly follows RBG's lead and dies (or has to retire for medical reasons), setting us up for another extended obstruction of SCOTUS so that the right can put another one of their ghouls in place.

It’s possible, but the GOP is fairly vulnerable in key seats

[Craig4]

I don't think this will be a typical midterm. However, Dems in Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Florida need to start the voter registration drive now. The impediments to voting aren't insurmountable but they need to get registration going because it will take more time. The also need to really push building that war chest for legal fights. The state of Georgia will try to take over county elections around Atlanta and Savannah. They need first class election lawyers and plenty of money to fight that. I'm sure they're already doing this, but the DNC needs to get it's data operation into high-gear, figure out how people voted in their friendly demographics and build the registration/mobilization effort so people can vote the way they found easiest.

After seeing that failed genetic experiment who is the Arizona Senate President, they should prepare for legal fights too. I don't know what they'll do yet but with her leading the fight, it will be stupid.

The 527s should already be hitting that idiot girl in Colorado, that what's her name and Wilson in Wisconsin. I'm not too worried about races in Pennsylvania and Michigan. With Dems in the Governor's Mansions, they can't push through new voting restrictions.

Oh, and Biden needs to shut the **** up about keeping the filibuster. Black women in Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, built the organization that got him in office. They hate the filibuster.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Craig4

I don't think this will be a typical midterm. However, Dems in Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Florida need to start the voter registration drive now. The impediments to voting aren't insurmountable but they need to get registration going because it will take more time. The also need to really push building that war chest for legal fights. The state of Georgia will try to take over county elections around Atlanta and Savannah. They need first class election lawyers and plenty of money to fight that. I'm sure they're already doing this, but the DNC needs to get it's data operation into high-gear, figure out how people voted in their friendly demographics and build the registration/mobilization effort so people can vote the way they found easiest.

After seeing that failed genetic experiment who is the Arizona Senate President, they should prepare for legal fights too. I don't know what they'll do yet but with her leading the fight, it will be stupid.

The 527s should already be hitting that idiot girl in Colorado, that what's her name and Wilson in Wisconsin. I'm not too worried about races in Pennsylvania and Michigan. With Dems in the Governor's Mansions, they can't push through new voting restrictions.

Oh, and Biden needs to shut the **** up about keeping the filibuster. Black women in Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, built the organization that got him in office. They hate the filibuster.

Biden's win in Georgia was about 12,000 votes.

Metro Atlanta is facing 70,000 evictions now that dems let the moratorium expire. There's nothing anyone can do to stop these idiots in charge from shooting themselves in the foot. "Use your power to stop obviously bad thing from happening" is such an easy political layup and they still manage to **** it up.

[Belz...]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Ironically this sort of thing bothers me less and less as I get older because it just now feels like the political campaign season never stops in a very real sense.

It's a rather unpleasant and Draconian solution but it's much harder to complain that "already doing this again" when "this" never stops.

Living in Canada is so great. We get at most 6 weeks of pre-election stuff before the provincials or federals, and that's it.

[Belz...]

Originally Posted by Delvo

On the minimum wage, really, 15 is already too low. If it had kept up with other relevant numbers like productivity or inflation, it would be around 18-23,

You must be joking.

15 on a full time job is 30k a year. I used to live very comfortably on that, and not too long ago. Our minimum wage in Canada is about 13$.

The question is where do you live. There are certainly places where life is pretty expensive, but a 23$ minimum wage in Plattsburg?

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by Belz...

You must be joking.

15 on a full time job is 30k a year. I used to live very comfortably on that, and not too long ago. Our minimum wage in Canada is about 13$.

The question is where do you live. There are certainly places where life is pretty expensive, but a 23$ minimum wage in Plattsburg?

Considering minimum wage jobs in the US almost never include health insurance or other benefits, you're not comparing compensation on an equal footing if you live in a country with state funded healthcare or other social programs.

[mgidm86]

$15 an hour in the Bay Area of Cali gets you a house with 3 other roommates. Rent and PG&E, cable will eat at least half of that. Add a car payment, insurance, phone, food, and you are barely scraping by.

In other parts of the country, or even the state you could do okay. One size doesn't fit all.

[Delvo]

An opinion piece I just saw was predicting big losses for Democrats the next time around, and gave, as the reasons why, a list of things they should have done but haven't (in the form of a comparison with 2010). It was focusing on Biden, who is certainly contributing to the the problem so far, but he's actually not the biggest single factor in several of the points they raised. And who is led me to a conclusion about how they can still win next time after a couple of years of getting nothing accomplished.

I don't usually say that campaigning primarily against the enemy is necessarily the best way to go, but this is one case in which I am. And that enemy is... Joe Manchin. (Plus Kyrsten Sinema.) The reason why is because the proper approach to a campaign against him/them is also simultaneously a positive campaign for yourself: "We tried this bill and that bill and the other bill, but there just weren't enough of us".

In other words, the way for Democrats to get out of being held responsible for an unproductive 2 years with the Presidency and two Congressional majorities is to dispel the myth that they really have a real majority in the Senate.

Also, a more subtle benefit of going this route: it would raise awareness of the conflicts within the party, which can help to bring over some people who aren't currently aware of it and treat all Democrats as one and the same with the worst Democrats. (Becoming aware of the party's internal conflicts, which I had been unaware of before, is part of what brought me over, so I know from experience that this is a real thing; if they're all one thing, then they're all bad, but if they fight among themselves, then there can be bad ones and good ones.)

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by mgidm86

$15 an hour in the Bay Area of Cali gets you a house with 3 other roommates. Rent and PG&E, cable will eat at least half of that. Add a car payment, insurance, phone, food, and you are barely scraping by.

In other parts of the country, or even the state you could do okay. One size doesn't fit all.

New York City is probably just as bad as the Bay Area in housing costs.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by mgidm86

$15 an hour in the Bay Area of Cali gets you a house with 3 other roommates. Rent and PG&E, cable will eat at least half of that. Add a car payment, insurance, phone, food, and you are barely scraping by.

In other parts of the country, or even the state you could do okay. One size doesn't fit all.

15 an hour, assuming no vacations and full time work, is only $31,200 a year.

Even in the lowest cost of living area, this is not a kingly sum. I see no reason why this couldn't (or shouldn't) be the floor for wages across the entire country, and it likely should be higher in places with higher costs of living.

The real problem is that this country has so thoroughly normalized the idea that large swaths of working people deserve to live in dire poverty, and any effort to provide even the barest bit of financial stability is seen as a gratuitous handout.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

15 an hour, assuming no vacations and full time work, is only $31,200 a year.

Even in the lowest cost of living area, this is not a kingly sum. I see no reason why this couldn't (or shouldn't) be the floor for wages across the entire country, and it likely should be higher in places with higher costs of living.

The real problem is that this country has so thoroughly normalized the idea that large swaths of working people deserve to live in dire poverty, and any effort to provide even the barest bit of financial stability is seen as a gratuitous handout.

Err, yeah and thats gross income. After taxes, and FICA, in my state, thats $2126 a month. And we have about average state income taxes. Even if you share an apartment your looking at $500 a month if you include utilities. Healthcare, about $300 for a high deductible plan. So your down to $1300 a month right there. Food... geez I cannot get out of the grocery store for less than $100 a week... down to $900 a month. Transportation? Either you're a car owner or you take an uber to work everyday here. So there goes $500/month easy. That leaves you $400 a month for everything else. Oh that High deductible plan comes with max out of pocket expenses of $6k a year. A nights stay at a hospital will get you there. So now your left with about negative $100 a month before you spend a penny on entertainment, clothes, hobbies etc.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Err, yeah and thats gross income. After taxes, and FICA, in my state, thats $2126 a month. And we have about average state income taxes. Even if you share an apartment your looking at $500 a month if you include utilities. Healthcare, about $300 for a high deductible plan. So your down to $1300 a month right there. Food... geez I cannot get out of the grocery store for less than $100 a week... down to $900 a month. Transportation? Either you're a car owner or you take an uber to work everyday here. So there goes $500/month easy. That leaves you $400 a month for everything else. Oh that High deductible plan comes with max out of pocket expenses of $6k a year. A nights stay at a hospital will get you there. So now your left with about negative $100 a month before you spend a penny on entertainment, clothes, hobbies etc.

The truth of the matter is that the working poor are not living on a measly 7.25 minimum wage. Their employers may only pay them that, but subsidies from the state in the form of various social welfare programs bring their effective wage up to a higher, more livable amount.

Increasing the minimum wage would likely have very little impact on the workers themselves, as many would simply lose access to means tested social supports and instead just be able to spend cash (far more dignified than jumping through SNAP, ACA, and other poverty bureaucracies) . Instead, increasing minimum wage would be cutting off hand-outs to poverty wage employers who benefit from having the state pick up the tab when they pay workers less than a survival wage.

[Delvo]

That would only be true for a small enough pay increase. A bigger increase would dig out of that. Even collecting government benefits doesn't get you much of a life; it just prevents you from dying of starvation or cold (but not most medical problems).

Also, it's not accurate to imagine all poor people getting means-tested benefits. Means-testing lets many people slip through the cracks.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Find someone that loves you as much as Democrats love sabotaging themselves with tedious, counterproductive means testing

Quote:

Sources tell me that White House and Democrats considering attaching means test to a number of key agenda items - from EV rebates and free community college - as a way to shrink reconciliation bill and pacify spending hawks.

https://twitter.com/JarrettRenshaw/s...38588441354243

[JoeMorgue]

Yeah. Let's see if the Republicans kill more of their voters or the Democrats cancel more of theirs before 2022.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Yeah. Let's see if the Republicans kill more of their voters or the Democrats cancel more of theirs before 2022.

Snark aside, I very much suspect that the 2022 election will be a contest between how many internet poisoned Trump voters suicided through covid denialism vs how many 2020 Biden voters don't bother to turnout after 2 years of ineffectual governance.

[The Great Zaganza]

Dems have an uphill battle, because the Talking Heads tend to not criticize the side that will issue death threats as a matter of course.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey

Snark aside, I very much suspect that the 2022 election will be a contest between how many internet poisoned Trump voters suicided through covid denialism vs how many 2020 Biden voters don't bother to turnout after 2 years of ineffectual governance.

It only really matters in Arizona, Wisconsin, Penn, Nevada, and Michigan. 5% or so of the country will get to decide the next president. How many older Trump supporters have died in those states compared to Dem voters Georgia and NC GOP will have successfully purged enough dem voters from the roles to make it impossible for dems to win there. My hope is that Biden steps down and Harris gets the nod.

ETA: oh you said 2022 election not 2024. Dems will keep the house. The senate... Dems will lose Georgia. And probably take either Penn or Wisc, but unlikely to taake both.

[JoeMorgue]

I mean we kind of already see the plan here.

All of the Republicans and a fair number of Progressive Democrats spend all their time making sure Biden gets nothing done so in 2022 the narrative can be "Biden can't get anything done." It's barely even subtext, it's mostly in the text.

Add to that Biden has to actually address problems that Trump either ignored or at best slapped some plaster over so he could ignore it and it won't be hard to sell the mass stupids on the narrative that everything is so much worse under Biden.

[SuburbanTurkey]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I mean we kind of already see the plan here.

All of the Republicans and a fair number of Progressive Democrats spend all their time making sure Biden gets nothing done so in 2022 the narrative can be "Biden can't get anything done." It's barely even subtext, it's mostly in the text.

Add to that Biden has to actually address problems that Trump either ignored or at best slapped some plaster over so he could ignore it and it won't be hard to sell the mass stupids on the narrative that everything is so much worse under Biden.

Is it the progressive democrats currently hamstringing Biden's signature infrastructure plan?

ETA:

Quote:

But the centrists — or “moderates,” as some call them — now want Biden to bring down the hammer on progressives. Some centrists anonymously leaked to Politico Playbook that they’re “infuriated” that Biden has not yet pressured progressives to pass the bipartisan bill this week, before reconciliation is done:

Moderate Democrats expected Biden to start twisting House progressives’ arms during their White House meeting last week. But we’re told by sources in the progressive camp and another senior Democratic aide that the president has neither asked progressives to drop their demand that the reconciliation bill pass in tandem with [the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework], nor pressed them to accept a stand-alone vote on BIF this week — at least not yet.
As one moderate griped to Playbook: “The president needs to pick up the phone and call people.”

...

“The White House has not asked progressives to change course,” Chris Evans, a spokesperson for Jayapal, told me. He noted there has been no pressure to vote for the infrastructure bill “before” the reconciliation one is “passed.”

“Like the overwhelming majority of Democrats, progressives support President Biden’s entire Build Back Better agenda and look forward to sending both bills to his desk,” Evans added.

Note that progressives are working hard to cast themselves as the true champions of Biden’s agenda. And it’s true: The reconciliation bill’s provisions on global warming, child care, paid leave, health care and education — offset by reforms making the tax code fairer, more progressive and less prone to elite gamesmanship — comprise the blueprint from Biden and the Democratic Party to secure our nation’s future.

Biden doesn't seem to be playing ball with the austerity hawks' hopes that the party would lockstep demand a total capitulation from the progressives.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...econciliation/

[turingtest]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I mean we kind of already see the plan here.

All of the Republicans and a fair number of Progressive Democrats spend all their time making sure Biden gets nothing done so in 2022 the narrative can be "Biden can't get anything done." It's barely even subtext, it's mostly in the text.

Add to that Biden has to actually address problems that Trump either ignored or at best slapped some plaster over so he could ignore it and it won't be hard to sell the mass stupids on the narrative that everything is so much worse under Biden.

The GOP version of "government of, by, and for the people" is that if it's not government exclusively of and by Republicans, they'd rather wreck it than see it work for the people.