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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:18 AM   #41
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
How much? Do you have a link to any stats? My 2nd is 12 weeks away.
The data is published by the Government

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

As of 1 Feb 9.6m 1st doses and just shy of 500k second doses.

5% of people have received their 2nd dose I'm sure you can work back from that and see if it's on track but my quick mental back of a fag packet calcs suggests that's behind where it should be.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:20 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's more like he simply doesn't care.

He wants and needs positive headlines to distract from utter incompetence of the government on so many fronts. Summer holidays and schools opening are the jangling keys to distract the infants.

He gets the positive headlines today - any possible negative consequences are in the future.
Exactly. It costs him nothing to say these things and when times comes he can just say 'the situation changed'
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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:25 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Yeah it would seem that the virus only has to not kill its host so fast that they don't have time to spread it.

One odd thing for me is that while you have the NZ and Vietnams that completely locked down and showing benefits there are also places that don't seem to be very bothered at all like Brazil where the infection rates don't seem to be all that much different to here where we are being limited in what we do and still seem to be one of the worst places in the world for infections.

It's all a bit confusing really.
I would be surprised if there are not some significant differences between the UK and Brazil. One would be the climate; the infection rates dropped in the UK over the summer. Another is whether comparable levels of testing are being done; I get the impression that Brazil is not particularly hot on it.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:31 AM   #44
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Boris has always been an opportunist.
He always will be, he is completely unsuited to leading a country and once this is over and there's nobody else to blame I expect he will take the fall.

Right now, anyone else in the Tory party would be mad to challenge him for the leadership, it's a poisoned chalice.
If a new leader took over at the moment they'd have to enact hugely unpopular policies in order to get the weekly infection / death rate down to New Zealand levels.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:37 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
I would be surprised if there are not some significant differences between the UK and Brazil. One would be the climate; the infection rates dropped in the UK over the summer. Another is whether comparable levels of testing are being done; I get the impression that Brazil is not particularly hot on it.
Yeah but it would be good to get some actual insight into the differences and understanding.

As far as I can see there seem to be two camps. Those that stamped on it early with some draconian measures and those that let it spread who are now playing a management game. I might just not be seeing the data but there doesn't seem to be a hell of a lot of 'in the middle' based on different approaches to managing it.

Of course there are going to be elements of randomness and factors that can't be controlled as well.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:41 AM   #46
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If Sir Major Tom's death teaches us anything, it is that just like Spanish flu, the second wave is worse and even with the new hope we have from a vaccine, you cannot let your guard down till it is all over. Getting the virus now is like conceding a goal in the last 10 minutes of the game, when it is more sensible to become even more defensive.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 06:42 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
If Sir Major Tom's death teaches us anything, it is that just like Spanish flu, the second wave is worse and even with the new hope we have from a vaccine, you cannot let your guard down till it is all over. Getting the virus now is like conceding a goal in the last 10 minutes of the game, when it is more sensible to become even more defensive.
Well said.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 08:04 AM   #48
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Regarding immunisation to achieve herd immunity:

Quote:
But the health ministry’s chief vaccine adviser, Dr Boaz Lev, tells the BBC he believes so-called herd immunity will not be reached in Israel until around 90% of the population is immunised. And that, he says, will not happen unless children receive the jab.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

That's a lot higher than other estimates which are in the 60%-70% range and as low as 30%.

The equation to calculate the proportion with antibodies to achieve herd immunity is
1 - (1/R0)
The Israeli health ministry must be using a comparatively high value for R0
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Old 3rd February 2021, 09:12 AM   #49
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PM confirms national clap for Captain Tom at tonight at 6
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Old 3rd February 2021, 09:18 AM   #50
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It’s barely been mentioned that the money he raised got completely spaffed away.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 09:20 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It’s barely been mentioned that the money he raised got completely spaffed away.
Evidence?
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Old 3rd February 2021, 09:27 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
If Sir Major Tom's death teaches us anything, it is that just like Spanish flu, the second wave is worse and even with the new hope we have from a vaccine, you cannot let your guard down till it is all over. Getting the virus now is like conceding a goal in the last 10 minutes of the game, when it is more sensible to become even more defensive.
I'm not sure how you get that from Captain Sir Tom Moore's death, sad though it is. He died with in 28 days of a positive test, so will be counted in the daily death figures, but it seems likely, from what I've read, that he caught the virus after being treated for pneumonia. He was also suffering from prostate cancer and skin cancer, so it may well be that Covid-19 was not the cause of death.

As for the second wave being worse, I'm not sure it is. Last I heard, the worst day for deaths (not reported deaths) was back in the first wave. The number of reported cases is much higher, but that's because there's a whole lot more testing going on.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 09:52 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Evidence?


AFAIAA it all went to a good cause, mainly helping the stressed out NHS staff with things that do not come under NHS budget. I had this message at the time from Ellie Orton, CEO of NHS Charities Together.



Quote:
“Thank you very much for your donation. It really means a lot to Tom, Maytrix and of course, to our amazing NHS Charities Together.

The Maytrix Team ”
The NHS is amazing. It is there for us at the most profound moments in our lives, no matter who we are or what we need. There are 250 NHS Charities in the UK providing funds and services above and beyond what the NHS alone can provide. Everyday NHS Charities give £1 million to the NHS.
and

Quote:
When you supported our Covid-19 appeal earlier this year, you helped us raise over £140 million for NHS workers, volunteers and patients caught up in the crisis.

£30 million gave immediate and much-needed support to the NHS all over the UK. It provided break rooms so staff could rest and recuperate during gruelling shifts, it paid for electronic tablets to help hospital staff and patients stay in touch with loved ones, it gave support to bereaved families, and it helped protect the mental wellbeing of our NHS staff through expert counselling.
Whilst it is true that with most large charities having accounting statements as large as any PLC and of course, CEO's and other staff seem astonishingly well-paid, it would be cynical to imagine that the money raised went towards 'admin' and 'salaries of charity personnel', that would have been an abuse of Capt. Tom Moore's boundless goodwill and leadership and needlessly unkind.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 10:03 AM   #54
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It is well documented that the govt have spaffed millions on defective and useless PPE contracts and test and trace.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 10:08 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It is well documented that the govt have spaffed millions on defective and useless PPE contracts and test and trace.
That is correct, but AIUI the money that Captain Tom raised went into specific staff welfare facilities rather than general funding. I suppose that money could have been used to subsidise spaffing elsewhere.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 10:09 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It is well documented that the govt have spaffed millions on defective and useless PPE contracts and test and trace.
That wouldn't have come out of 'NHS Charities' for whom Capt. Tom Moore was raising money for. He wasn't raising money for NHS proper, which is funded by taxpayers. (Charities are funded by donations, grants, legacies and fundraising.)
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Old 3rd February 2021, 10:21 AM   #57
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Capt Tom Moore epitomises everything that is (was?) great about Britain.

How many people get a Spitfire fly pass on their 100th birthday?

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Old 3rd February 2021, 10:54 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It is well documented that the govt have spaffed millions on defective and useless PPE contracts and test and trace.
Yeah... no.


https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/02/what-...t-on-14009294/
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Old 3rd February 2021, 10:55 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
It’s barely been mentioned that the money he raised got completely spaffed away.
£150m was wasted on the wrong type of masks.

Captain Tom's contribution gone in a flash.

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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:08 AM   #60
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Here's a SKY NEWS clip of the 'Clap for Capt. Tom Moore'.




https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1...497503232?s=20

Quote:
Watch live as people across the nation join the prime minister to clap for Captain Sir Tom Moore and healthcare workers #ClapForCaptainTom
Note how 'Boris' and Carrie cut their applause short, with Keir Starmer outlasting 'Boris' in endurance. What is wrong with Johnson, he seems devoid of any energy or vigour?
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:22 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Airfix View Post
£150m was wasted on the wrong type of masks.

Captain Tom's contribution gone in a flash.

That was Diana 'Dido' Harding:

Quote:
Diana Mary "Dido" Harding, Baroness Harding of Winscombe (born 9 November 1967)[2] is a British Conservative Party businesswoman serving as chairwoman of NHS Improvement since 2017, and head of the NHS Test and Trace programme and acting chair of the National Institute for Health Protection since 2020.

She was appointed to Public Health England - quite separate from the NHS - and nothing to do with NHS Charities Together.

Quote:
As the second spike of the pandemic developed into the winter of 2020 and over Christmas, commentary developed in much of the press about Harding's absence from the national stage as hospitalisations and deaths grew alarmingly. The columnist Rod Liddle in the right-leaning Times complained: "Test and Trace has cost the taxpayer £22bn. It has repeatedly failed to achieve targets it has been set. It was once heralded as The Thing That Would Defeat Covid, but nobody talks about it much any more."[37]

In January 2021, Harding defended spending upwards of £1,000-a-day on consultants for the contact tracing programme. Appearing before the Public Accounts Committee, Harding told MPs she felt it was "appropriate" to bring in external help in "extreme emergency circumstances".
You would think she would have some business acumen, as like, Matthew Hancock, Diana Harding also studied PPE (no, not that PPE, silly!) which she did at Oxford and she also has an MBA (Business studies):


Quote:
Raised on the family pig farm in Dorset, she was educated from 1978 to 1985 at St Antony's Leweston, then an all-girl independent Catholic school. She then graduated from Magdalen College, Oxford[4] in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, where she studied under Vernon Bogdanor and alongside David Cameron,[5] and then studied at Harvard Business School, gaining an MBA.[6]
wiki
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:24 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Because we (NHS and Care staff) are all receiving appointments for our second doses this month. This is somewhat earlier than the 3 months, for most people it is about 8 weeks, for some as short a time as 4 weeks. Since I think deferring the second dose will maximise its benefit I have booked my second dose as late as possible - 8 weeks.

Scottish stats table 1 here.
https://beta.isdscotland.org/media/7...ion_report.pdf

Ah, you were able to have a choice?

I'm probably being too suspicious but somehow the reports that the Pfizer vaccine is doing just what the government was crossing its fingers and hoping it would do seem a bit too pat, a bit too good to be true. Hopefully it's all kosher.

All my older friends and relatives have had their first vaccination now, or are lined up within the next few days, and a couple who are more or less housebound are scheduled to have the district nurse come round and do it. Apparently they have an excellent walk-through system up and running in the Motherwell concert hall.

I'm confident we can eliminate community spread of this thing again this summer, like we did last year. Do they really have the sense and the determination to keep it eliminated this time? If the vaccination drive is completed successfully and no incoming travellers are allowed without either an up-to-date vaccination or two weeks hotel quarantine, there's no reason why it shouldn't be done.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:27 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
More bollocks from Dido Harding*:

"Between that business plan being published and us going into the lockdown that we are in now, we’ve seen the virus mutate. We have seen the new variant emerge, which was something that none of us were able to predict." link

Immediately debunked by a commentator with a reference to an article published last March

*Silly to expect anything else, really.

I said the other day that the statement "this virus does not respect borders", given as a reason not to implement any border controls in a country that had successfully eliminated the virus last summer, was probably the stupidest statement made by anyone during the pandemic. This one runs it close or beats it.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:29 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Airfix View Post
I conceded that I am not a doctor and am speaking out of ignorance here I may well be wrong on this:
My consideration was based on the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 - 1920.
100m died, afterwards this hugely infectious viral strain disappeared.

Is it a fair assessment as a layman to state that it wiped itself out whilst less deadly strains of flu persisted ?

Flu is different. The virus regularly goes off to the far east in the summer and exchanges and shuffles its antigens, so strains of flu come and go on a regular basis regardless of what we do about them. It didn't wipe itself out any more than any other strain of flu does, it just went through the usual cycle.

As someone else said, smallpox and measles and rabies and so on have never become less virulent.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:33 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Yeah it would seem that the virus only has to not kill its host so fast that they don't have time to spread it.

One odd thing for me is that while you have the NZ and Vietnams that completely locked down and showing benefits there are also places that don't seem to be very bothered at all like Brazil where the infection rates don't seem to be all that much different to here where we are being limited in what we do and still seem to be one of the worst places in the world for infections.

It's all a bit confusing really.

There are a lot of variables to consider, and frankly we've thrown away a lot of the benefits of lockdowns because we waited until we were over-run by virus before we did it. If we'd locked down much earlier we could have had much shorter lockdowns and still beaten the virus.

Places like Brazil are massively under-counting the actual infections because they're not testing nearly as widely as we are (even though we're still not testing enough), and their mortality rate is going to be lower because their population is substantially younger (and less obese) on average.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:35 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Airfix View Post
£150m was wasted on the wrong type of masks.

Captain Tom's contribution gone in a flash.

Yes, they've wasted a huge amount of money, more than was raised by Captain Tom. However, the money he raised has been spent on worthwhile things as far as I can see.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:36 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
If Sir Major Tom's death teaches us anything, it is that just like Spanish flu, the second wave is worse and even with the new hope we have from a vaccine, you cannot let your guard down till it is all over. Getting the virus now is like conceding a goal in the last 10 minutes of the game, when it is more sensible to become even more defensive.
Or that if a 100 year old catches covid they will probably die.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:37 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The data is published by the Government

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

As of 1 Feb 9.6m 1st doses and just shy of 500k second doses.

5% of people have received their 2nd dose I'm sure you can work back from that and see if it's on track but my quick mental back of a fag packet calcs suggests that's behind where it should be.

But, define "should". My impression is that it's all going OK, and that we're close to "as fast as actually practically possible at this stage". The rate is going to increase as mass vaccination centres come on stream and younger more mobile people get to them.

The real test is seeing the reduction in community spread, and of course that's already happening due to the lockdown so it's hard to spot. We should be seeing a marked reduction in care home deaths within three or four weeks, and deaths in all the over-80s soon after that. It will take a bit longer to get community transmission down by hitting on the younger, mobile people, but that'll come.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:44 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Capt Tom Moore epitomises everything that is (was?) great about Britain.

How many people get a Spitfire fly pass on their 100th birthday?

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His story epitomises everything that is ***** about Britain. A hundred year old man having to debase himself to support things that should be funded by the government made into a hero by the press who seek sensationalise headlines and would rather avoid the real stories and killed by a virus that the government should have done better in combating. and celebrated with a Spitfire flyby just to rub in that we are still obsessed with the past and couldn't give a **** about the future.

If this country EVER stops harking back to WW2 and starts becoming a modern progressive European democracy we MIGHT actually have something worth celebrating.

Until then... colour me unimpressed.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:48 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by Airfix View Post
Boris has always been an opportunist.
He always will be, he is completely unsuited to leading a country and once this is over and there's nobody else to blame I expect he will take the fall.

Right now, anyone else in the Tory party would be mad to challenge him for the leadership, it's a poisoned chalice.
If a new leader took over at the moment they'd have to enact hugely unpopular policies in order to get the weekly infection / death rate down to New Zealand levels.

There's a big opportunity though, for someone that sees it. Within two or three months the benefits of the vaccination campaign are going to start to show. We'll be heading into a summer where the virus should be suppressed and community transmission ended. A lot of people aren't seeing the light that is actually blazing at the end of the tunnel. Someone who does see it, and has the minimum necessary nous to steer the country through the less severe restrictions that will become necessary as we progress towards herd immunity, could look really good by managing to take over at the right moment.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:48 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
and their mortality rate is going to be lower because their population is substantially younger (and less obese) on average.
That's an interesting one. hadn't thought about that and hadn't realised that the average age in brazil is nearly 10 years younger than in the UK.

Hadn't thought about that one before
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:50 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
But, define "should". My impression is that it's all going OK, and that we're close to "as fast as actually practically possible at this stage". The rate is going to increase as mass vaccination centres come on stream and younger more mobile people get to them.

The real test is seeing the reduction in community spread, and of course that's already happening due to the lockdown so it's hard to spot. We should be seeing a marked reduction in care home deaths within three or four weeks, and deaths in all the over-80s soon after that. It will take a bit longer to get community transmission down by hitting on the younger, mobile people, but that'll come.
'Should' was meant to mean 'vaccinating everyone for a second time who is 12 weeks at most away from the 1st vaccination' but it might actually be on track as I overestimated how long vaccinations had been going for in my head. It's only been 7 or 8 weeks.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:51 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
If Sir Major Tom's death teaches us anything, it is that just like Spanish flu, the second wave is worse and even with the new hope we have from a vaccine, you cannot let your guard down till it is all over. Getting the virus now is like conceding a goal in the last 10 minutes of the game, when it is more sensible to become even more defensive.

He was 100 though, and from what they're saying he had bog-standard pneumonia (which could easily have killed him on its own) before he caught covid.

He apparently went on a winter trip to Barbados or somewhere, paid for by, I think, an airline company. I don't know if that's where he got the virus, but it occurred to me that at his age he might well have preferred to go out after having an experience like that, as he was so near the end of his life in any case.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:51 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
AFAIAA it all went to a good cause, mainly helping the stressed out NHS staff with things that do not come under NHS budget. I had this message at the time from Ellie Orton, CEO of NHS Charities Together.





and



Whilst it is true that with most large charities having accounting statements as large as any PLC and of course, CEO's and other staff seem astonishingly well-paid, it would be cynical to imagine that the money raised went towards 'admin' and 'salaries of charity personnel', that would have been an abuse of Capt. Tom Moore's boundless goodwill and leadership and needlessly unkind.
The "break rooms" is pretty nonsensical as very few hospitals were built with space for this, so I would love to know where this is coming from, let alone the time for regular breaks (my sister's hospital - one I do happen to know - has no such spaces and they were all having to work through breaks anyway, which has been SOP in many hospitals for donkeys' years).

The providing "expert counselling" is just plugging the gaps left by the contracting out of occupational health services post 2010. And where do these "expert counsellors" come from?

A lot of this NHS "charity" stuff is guff. And how many folk knew where the money was going, rather than thinking it actually went to folk like my sister?
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:56 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Regarding immunisation to achieve herd immunity:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

That's a lot higher than other estimates which are in the 60%-70% range and as low as 30%.

The equation to calculate the proportion with antibodies to achieve herd immunity is
1 - (1/R0)
The Israeli health ministry must be using a comparatively high value for R0

They're probably just using the correct definition of herd immunity. It was never remotely possible this would be reached at under 80% immune, and 90% was always more probable. It's also not possible to achieve real herd immunity without a vaccine.

I think they're missing a possibility though. Other public health measures (distancing, masks, test-trace-isolate) on top of the vaccine could get to elimination of community spread without needing 90% penetration. Basically the vaccine gets the incidence down low enough that test-trace-isolate has a sporting chance of killing what remains.

The problem may be in preventing re-introduction. If you want to get back to normal and stop all the masks and the distancing and the no-visiting rules, then you have to be robustly protected against re-introduction of the virus. That might well need a higher % vaccinated, depending on how likely new introductions are. But of course you also make travel vaccination mandatory, so it's not a single "we have to reach this % or we're screwed" calculation.

As a rider to this, consider measles. That needs about 90-95% vaccine penetration to achieve herd immunity. However when that-bastard-Wakefield brought the % down, measles didn't start running wild until the numbers were more like 50-60%. Maybe it was just that there were no new introductions before it got to that, it's hard to say. But while a high % is necessary on paper to get elimination of community spread, that's assuming you do nothing else. If you have other measures in place you can stamp it out earlier, and then your calculations become based on the need to deal with new introductions.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 11:58 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Note how 'Boris' and Carrie cut their applause short, with Keir Starmer outlasting 'Boris' in endurance. What is wrong with Johnson, he seems devoid of any energy or vigour?

Plenty of rumours that he has Long Covid.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 12:03 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
There's a big opportunity though, for someone that sees it. Within two or three months the benefits of the vaccination campaign are going to start to show. We'll be heading into a summer where the virus should be suppressed and community transmission ended. A lot of people aren't seeing the light that is actually blazing at the end of the tunnel. Someone who does see it, and has the minimum necessary nous to steer the country through the less severe restrictions that will become necessary as we progress towards herd immunity, could look really good by managing to take over at the right moment.
Agreed.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 12:30 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
He was 100 though, and from what they're saying he had bog-standard pneumonia (which could easily have killed him on its own) before he caught covid.
And he's also had skin cancer and prostate cancer which he was not having any invasive treatments for (after consultation with his medical team) so he may not have long left anyway.
Quote:
He apparently went on a winter trip to Barbados or somewhere, paid for by, I think, an airline company. I don't know if that's where he got the virus, but it occurred to me that at his age he might well have preferred to go out after having an experience like that, as he was so near the end of his life in any case.
That's the impression that his family are giving, that the last year of his life was just amazing and he was happy to go.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 12:34 PM   #79
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British Airways paid for that holiday.
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Old 3rd February 2021, 12:43 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Plenty of rumours that he has Long Covid.
That will be the official reason.

Then there is the real reason.
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