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Old 20th February 2021, 11:19 AM   #321
Darat
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British science advisor isn’t listening to experts: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b673b19b68892d

The government experts have clearly made it clear that Johnson needs good headlines, but as usual science bods don’t understand the seriousness of this pandemic!
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Old 20th February 2021, 11:59 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I have not stopped my usual habits - public transport daily, shopping several times a week, contact to friends - one bit. I am in close encounter to strangers daily and only wear a mask if I really have to. So my assessment that there might be a "new" virus, but there sure isn't a "pandemic", is based on first hand experience on the field.
Has it crossed your mind that you might be carrying it but are asymptomatic? That you might be infecting others? That your claim of 'first hand experience' is totally selfish and short-sighted?
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Old 20th February 2021, 12:44 PM   #323
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So what is this?



Almost looks like the end of a flu season. But flu has been almost eliminated by the "Corona measures" which failed to eliminate "Corona".
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Last edited by Darat; 21st February 2021 at 03:14 AM. Reason: Changed img tag to imgw
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Old 20th February 2021, 05:59 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Since there are all sorts of reasons why the "severity" of the lockdown might not correlate at all with the viral incidence at the present time, I'm not surprised.
  • A lockdown that's started late will be much less effective than one that's started early in the epidemic surge
  • A lockdown that looks tight on paper will not be as effective if the paper regulations aren't enforced
  • A lockdown that started last week will appear less effective than one that began a couple of months ago, all else being equal
  • Population density and demographics have an enormous effect, with rural areas coming to heel very quickly and crowded urban areas with high levels of multiple occupancy and multi-generational families will go on breeding virus at a relatively high rate.
So presenting simplistic figures like that really isn't going to prove anything.
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Old 21st February 2021, 12:52 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
So what is this?

https://i.imgur.com/Bm745GE.jpg

Almost looks like the end of a flu season. But flu has been almost eliminated by the "Corona measures" which failed to eliminate "Corona".

How do you think the curves would have looked without the “corona measures”?
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:31 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
So what is this?

https://i.imgur.com/Bm745GE.jpg

Almost looks like the end of a flu season. But flu has been almost eliminated by the "Corona measures" which failed to eliminate "Corona".
You have to give a few thumbs up to Germany going by that graph.
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Old 21st February 2021, 02:13 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
You have to give a few thumbs up to Germany going by that graph.
100 times the New Zealand daily rate though. And 99% of those are imported and quarantined. Amazing how an insanely unnecessary lung destroyer is excused this way.
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Old 21st February 2021, 03:37 AM   #328
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Matt Hancock says it was "the right thing to do" to delay publishing contracts during the pandemic, despite a court ruling he acted unlawfully.

A judge ruled the health secretary had "breached his legal obligation" by not publishing details within 30 days of contracts being signed.

But Mr Hancock told the BBC his team had been focused on sourcing PPE.

He said they "spent all of their time buying life-saving equipment, even if the paperwork was a little bit late".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he would not call for Mr Hancock to resign over the court ruling, saying it was "not what the public really want to see".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56145490
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Old 21st February 2021, 03:45 AM   #329
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10% of UK #COVID19 patients die within months of being discharged from hospital, and 30% are readmitted.

This is higher than a control group, where the figures are 2% and 10%.

Diabetes, kidney and liver disease, and heart attacks and strokes are common.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1804704.html
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:39 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
How do you think the curves would have looked without the “corona measures”?

Like the end of a flu season.
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:55 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Book? Text? I just got a phone call from a very nice young lady telling me when and where to show up! (Though I imagine that, had I had some other pressing engagement, she might have been open to negotiation.)
Are you retired? I presume that vaccinating those in older age groups will be easier because they can slot in to almost any time slot, whereas those below the retirement age will have to be slotted in when they can make it.
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Old 21st February 2021, 06:10 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Like the end of a flu season.

Flu has been almost eradicated by the Corona measures. Surely, you would expect flu deaths to be added to the Covid deaths?
And you apparently do not think that the Corona measures has had any influence on Covid? So no higher death rates attributed to Covid?
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Old 21st February 2021, 06:50 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Are you retired? I presume that vaccinating those in older age groups will be easier because they can slot in to almost any time slot, whereas those below the retirement age will have to be slotted in when they can make it.

You're right, I am retired, although there are plenty people of my age who aren't. Of course, given that the whole thing took about ten minutes out of my day, people working from home would probably have been able to fit it in too.
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Old 21st February 2021, 06:53 AM   #334
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Matt Hancock's chum under investigation

An old mate of the Health Secretary won a nice contract for producing vials for covid vaccine, despite having no experience in medical packaging. This came after a number of communications between Hancock and the ex pub landlord.

"Bourne created his medical-grade processing facilities, installing inflatable “clean rooms”, in a building on an industrial farm owned by his father-in-law Robert Smith, one of the leading potato suppliers to supermarkets.

According to allegations from sources, there was a period of months early in the operation when Hinpack production workers had no permanent toilets or access to running water for hand washing.

Workers were also accused of failing to follow strict hygiene protocols when entering the inflatable rooms, according to the sources, and failing to change in and out of protective clothing properly when taking breaks."

link to full scandal story.
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Old 21st February 2021, 08:19 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
Flu has been almost eradicated by the Corona measures. Surely, you would expect flu deaths to be added to the Covid deaths?
And you apparently do not think that the Corona measures has had any influence on Covid? So no higher death rates attributed to Covid?

Yeah, as I said: Flu has been almost eradicated (anyone not following, look up the flu statistics) by the "Corona measures", while a disease with the same characteristics at which the measures were directed, "Corona", hasn't been, and has taken over with comparable death toll. Move your brain cells.
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Old 21st February 2021, 09:41 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Yeah, as I said: Flu has been almost eradicated (anyone not following, look up the flu statistics) by the "Corona measures", while a disease with the same characteristics at which the measures were directed, "Corona", hasn't been, and has taken over with comparable death toll. Move your brain cells.
Similar modes of transmission, yes. Different degrees of infectiousness. Flu has an R0 value of around 1.3, Covid-19 of around 5.6. The lockdown in the UK has brought the R value for Covid-19 down below 1. Such measures would reduce the R value for flu similarly, to the level that it's not going to spread.
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Old 21st February 2021, 09:47 AM   #337
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A firm is being investigated by the UK medical regulator after it was awarded a £30m contract during the pandemic.

Alex Bourne - who used to run a pub near Matt Hancock's old constituency home in West Suffolk - made vials for Covid testing through his firm Hinpack, which had no history of medical goods.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has confirmed it is now investigating the company.

The MHRA said it took "all reports of non-compliance very seriously".

Mr Bourne had offered his services to the government via a personal WhatsApp message to the health secretary, saying they had known each other for years.

Lawyers for Mr Bourne told the Guardian the test tubes that Hinpack manufactures are "by no means complicated and are well within our client's existing skillset".

They also said the MHRA had previously approved and inspected Hinpack's products and working practices, and allegations being reported against them were "untrue".

Asked about it at a Downing Street press conference in December, Mr Hancock said: "I had absolutely nothing to do with that contract."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56145492
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Old 21st February 2021, 09:50 AM   #338
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Police have handed a £10,000 fine to the organiser of a church meet-up in a pub car park.

Officers from Nottinghamshire Police said the Church on the Streets service, involving about 30 people in Bardney Drive, Bulwell, Nottingham, broke lockdown rules.

They said when officers arrived, at around 12:15 GMT on Saturday, there were tents, food and a sound system.

But the church's pastor, Chez Weir, has said she will contest the fine.

Insp James Walker, from the force, said they had been advising the group for a number of weeks about how and where they could worship during lockdown.

"Over the last week in particular, we have absolutely clarified these events are not allowed," he said.

"Despite the warnings given over the last week in particular, this event continued to go ahead and that is why we have implemented our last resort of enforcement."

The pastor said those attending Church on the Streets gatherings stayed in their cars and the food, tents and sound system were all part of the service.

She said she had worked with the police throughout and had recently been advised against using a different car park for worship but did not realise the restriction also applied to the pub car park.

"We've looked at the guidelines and they are very vague," she said.
"I'm really disappointed. I'm going to challenge it because I don't believe I've done anything wrong."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-56139051
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:12 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Similar modes of transmission, yes. Different degrees of infectiousness. Flu has an R0 value of around 1.3, Covid-19 of around 5.6. The lockdown in the UK has brought the R value for Covid-19 down below 1. Such measures would reduce the R value for flu similarly, to the level that it's not going to spread.
And the infectious agent can be isolated and studied. Covid-19 is not a strain of flu.

I'm still waiting for CE to explain, even roughly, how this conspiracy works.
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:17 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Similar modes of transmission, yes. Different degrees of infectiousness. Flu has an R0 value of around 1.3, Covid-19 of around 5.6. The lockdown in the UK has brought the R value for Covid-19 down below 1. Such measures would reduce the R value for flu similarly, to the level that it's not going to spread.
Simple enough, I would have thought, yet many people seem to have difficulty grasping it.
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:28 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Similar modes of transmission, yes. Different degrees of infectiousness. Flu has an R0 value of around 1.3, Covid-19 of around 5.6. The lockdown in the UK has brought the R value for Covid-19 down below 1. Such measures would reduce the R value for flu similarly, to the level that it's not going to spread.

The R0 value in Germany has been under 1 since about the day of the first "lockdown", with fluctuations up to 1.5 over the next periods.



Flu is subject to the same "measures" and it has been "eradicated" by official statistics, while "Corona" hasn't been and is still alive and kicking by the "mutants" that showed up.
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:38 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I'm still waiting for CE to explain, even roughly, how this conspiracy works.

It's always the same logical fallacy. "If you claim the official story isn't true, you have to come up with a better one". No, I don't have to do that. If X can't be the murderer and I point that out, the case is open again. I don't have to come up with Y.

I could link you to a (specific) video, but you would just dismiss it because you aren't ready for it. Accept the facts first, then start to honestly ask questions.
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:39 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
The R0 value in Germany has been under 1 since about the day of the first "lockdown", with fluctuations up to 1.5 over the next periods.



Flu is subject to the same "measures" and it has been "eradicated" by official statistics, while "Corona" hasn't been and is still alive and kicking by the "mutants" that showed up.
Which part of the post you responded to are you not understanding?

What you describe is exactly what you'd expect to see.
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:45 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Which part of the post you responded to are you not understanding?

What you describe is exactly what you'd expect to see.

That the R0-Value is going down before the "lockdown"? That is certainly not what I would expect to see.
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:51 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
That the R0-Value is going down before the "lockdown"? That is certainly not what I would expect to see.
Are you saying that nobody had changed their behaviour in any way before full lockdown?

ETA: It's also not the R0 value going down; as I understand it, that is the basic transmission rate of the virus in normal conditions. it's the current R value that has gone down in response to the measures being taken to reduce transmission (and, potentially, also other factors, such as the weather).
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Old 21st February 2021, 10:51 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
A firm is being investigated by the UK medical regulator after it was awarded a £30m contract during the pandemic.

Alex Bourne - who used to run a pub near Matt Hancock's old constituency home in West Suffolk - made vials for Covid testing through his firm Hinpack, which had no history of medical goods.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has confirmed it is now investigating the company.

The MHRA said it took "all reports of non-compliance very seriously".

Mr Bourne had offered his services to the government via a personal WhatsApp message to the health secretary, saying they had known each other for years.

Lawyers for Mr Bourne told the Guardian the test tubes that Hinpack manufactures are "by no means complicated and are well within our client's existing skillset".

They also said the MHRA had previously approved and inspected Hinpack's products and working practices, and allegations being reported against them were "untrue".

Asked about it at a Downing Street press conference in December, Mr Hancock said: "I had absolutely nothing to do with that contract."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56145492

The pub by the way, is called "The Cock Inn" named after the traditional question asked by potential visitors that don't want to risk running into Matt Hancock.
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Old 21st February 2021, 11:25 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Are you saying that nobody had changed their behaviour in any way before full lockdown?

No, I replied to your claim that "Corona" had an R0-Value that would cause exponential growth that has been prevented by "lockdown". The (official) data which I provided to you doesn't support this.
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Old 21st February 2021, 12:07 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
No, I replied to your claim that "Corona" had an R0-Value that would cause exponential growth that has been prevented by "lockdown".
Exactly what is incorrect about that statement?
Quote:
The (official) data which I provided to you doesn't support this.
If you're saying that in Germany the R value dropped below 1 without a full lockdown, then that still doesn't invalidate anything I said. All it means is that people were taking sufficient precautions to reduce the transmission of Covid-19. Those precautions would have the side-effect of also reducing the transmission of flu. Since the R0 for flu is much lower, it's not surprising that the resultant levels of flu are consequently lower too.

You seem to be expressing incredulity that flu has nearly vanished while Covid-19 remains. I'll ask again; what is it that you're not understanding about what the different R0 values mean?

In the UK, when we have had less than a full lockdown, the R value has crept back over 1. In other countries, with different social and meteorological conditions, less strict measures might be sufficient to bring the R value below 1.
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Old 21st February 2021, 12:12 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Exactly what is incorrect about that statement?

If you're saying that in Germany the R value dropped below 1 without a full lockdown, then that still doesn't invalidate anything I said. All it means is that people were taking sufficient precautions to reduce the transmission of Covid-19. Those precautions would have the side-effect of also reducing the transmission of flu. Since the R0 for flu is much lower, it's not surprising that the resultant levels of flu are consequently lower too.

You seem to be expressing incredulity that flu has nearly vanished while Covid-19 remains. I'll ask again; what is it that you're not understanding about what the different R0 values mean?

We have one serious illness that has been around for literally thousands of years, now gone, replaced by a "new" illness with the same symptoms and the same death toll. And you are asking about what I don't understand.
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Old 21st February 2021, 12:40 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
The pub by the way, is called "The Cock Inn" named after the traditional question asked by potential visitors that don't want to risk running into Matt Hancock.

What, not the one in Southwater?
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Old 21st February 2021, 12:49 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
We have one serious illness that has been around for literally thousands of years, now gone, replaced by a "new" illness with the same symptoms and the same death toll. And you are asking about what I don't understand.
Well, you don't seem to understand that it's not the same symptoms, not the same death toll, and not the same virus.
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:10 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Well, you don't seem to understand that it's not the same symptoms, not the same death toll, and not the same virus.

Regardless of what "I understand" (hint: you are wrong about everything) it is none of your business to decide what "I understand". BTW, it is the same symptoms and the same death toll.
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:55 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
...replaced by a "new" illness with the same symptoms
Not true
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
and the same death toll.
Not true

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
And you are asking about what I don't understand.
Among the many things you don't understand (or pretend to not understand, who knows) are the various R-values, social distancing, mask wearing, symptoms of flu and of Covid, death tolls, and pretty much everything about this current pandemic.
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:56 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Regardless of what "I understand" (hint: you are wrong about everything) it is none of your business to decide what "I understand". BTW, it is the same symptoms and the same death toll.
Insisting on being wrong is the hallmark of the Truther.
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Old 21st February 2021, 04:28 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Exactly what is incorrect about that statement?

If you're saying that in Germany the R value dropped below 1 without a full lockdown, then that still doesn't invalidate anything I said. All it means is that people were taking sufficient precautions to reduce the transmission of Covid-19. Those precautions would have the side-effect of also reducing the transmission of flu. Since the R0 for flu is much lower, it's not surprising that the resultant levels of flu are consequently lower too.
Saw the same thing in early March in San Diego. Covid-19 was in the news with the explosions in Italy and case numbers rising like crazy in New York. Went out to eat at a local restaurant around March 4 figuring it might be the last time for a while but that risk was still low. The place was noticeably low in customers with about half what would be normal at that time. Clearly people were doing the things that drop R0 just from the publicity and there was still several weeks before NPI measures were introduced.

In looking at the CDC's influenza tracking that was right about the time that the flu, which had been, up to that point, looking above the average for a season, started dropping like a rock. Flu is distinguished from Covid by PCR tests that identify flu strain and within weeks was well below normal.
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Old 21st February 2021, 11:22 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Regardless of what "I understand" (hint: you are wrong about everything) it is none of your business to decide what "I understand". BTW, it is the same symptoms and the same death toll.
Data on the last point, flu deaths in the UK are down. Excess deaths are up, and correlate closely with Covid-19 deaths.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...g5february2021

Go to the medical thread if you want to be schooled on the symptoms.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 12:22 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Saw the same thing in early March in San Diego. Covid-19 was in the news with the explosions in Italy and case numbers rising like crazy in New York. Went out to eat at a local restaurant around March 4 figuring it might be the last time for a while but that risk was still low. The place was noticeably low in customers with about half what would be normal at that time. Clearly people were doing the things that drop R0 just from the publicity and there was still several weeks before NPI measures were introduced.
The last time I went to a live performance was to a ballet on March 11th last year, like you I knew it was a risk but that it might also be the last opportunity for quite a while. I know it was almost sold out because I bought one of the few remaining tickets for my niece a few days before, but there were large numbers of empty seats. So yes, people in the UK were also voluntarily starting to take precautions a couple of weeks before the country went into lockdown.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 03:37 AM   #358
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The last time I went to a live performance was to a ballet on March 11th last year, like you I knew it was a risk but that it might also be the last opportunity for quite a while. I know it was almost sold out because I bought one of the few remaining tickets for my niece a few days before, but there were large numbers of empty seats. So yes, people in the UK were also voluntarily starting to take precautions a couple of weeks before the country went into lockdown.
Similarly here; I was at a gig on March 14th. The year before, the hall was packed with about 600 people, last year the place was busy but not full, and the expected guest, Kenney Jones, had decided not to attend because of the risk.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 03:48 AM   #359
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Fact remains that the R0-value has been around 1 to 1.5 in Germany for all the time since the first "lockdown" (the numbers in the slide are "official" from the Robert-Koch-Institute, see link at the bottom). Even the spike in June has a clear explanation: It was an apparent break-out at the meat-processing factory Tönnies that later turned out to be quite suspicious (retested workers were negative).
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Old 22nd February 2021, 03:50 AM   #360
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Fact remains that the R0-value has been around 1 to 1.5 in Germany for all the time since the first "lockdown" (the numbers in the slide are "official" from the Robert-Koch-Institute, see link at the bottom). Even the spike in June has a clear explanation: It was an apparent break-out at the meat-processing factory Tönnies that later turned out to be quite suspicious (retested workers were negative).
And?
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