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Old 30th March 2021, 01:12 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I noticed that as well, but was going to say "to starboard", because I'm a moron! Maybe just camera tilt.
I don't think it was camera tilt judging from the level of the water. Probably, as mentioned above, a little effect of pumped ballast.
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Old 31st March 2021, 03:02 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Damn, it just occurred to me: they could probably have sorted out this problem on Day 1.... simply by pouring several dozen tons of Ex-Lax into the Suez Canal.
Or filled the canal with prune juice.
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Old 31st March 2021, 03:05 PM   #323
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Was the length of time the ship was stuck really long enough to search all the containers for Hillary's missing email?
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Old 31st March 2021, 03:07 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Was the length of time the ship was stuck really long enough to search all the containers for Hillary's missing email?
No, but there was time to find 5 containers full of Hunter Biden laptops. The missing e-mails will probably be on one of them.
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Old 31st March 2021, 03:12 PM   #325
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Rumour has it that Lord Lucan was hiding in one of the containers.
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Old 31st March 2021, 03:18 PM   #326
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you ain't seen me.... roit?
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Old 3rd April 2021, 01:28 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Rumour has it that Lord Lucan was hiding in one of the containers.
The one next door to Shergar.
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Old 3rd April 2021, 03:19 PM   #328
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Here's an in depth analysis about what (possibly) went wrong:

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-suez-blockage

Incompetent pilotage seems to be the most possible reason.
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Old 3rd April 2021, 03:48 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
Here's an in depth analysis about what (possibly) went wrong:

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-suez-blockage

Incompetent pilotage seems to be the most possible reason.


Yes - I was under the impression that this had been more-or-less settled upon as the root cause, as early as something like Day 2 or Day 3.

The issue - both for the Suez Canal Authority and each freight shipping operator who sends ships through the canal (and whose insurers stand to lose multiple millions of dollars if/when something like this happens) - is twofold:

1) How to minimise (or, as a gold standard, eradicate) the chance of another ship running into a similar situation and totally blocking up the canal;

2) How to put better systems in place, such that if/when a similar incident were to occur in the future, the response and remedy times would be an awful lot lower than they were last week.


On both parts, but on (2) especially, I'm guessing that the issue of funding may prove difficult and divisive. Rationally-speaking, since the total losses to the freight operators' insurers from this recent event are estimated at an astonishing $9 billion, it would be "worth" the insurers to amalgamate together to spend perhaps up to $50 million towards a solution. But this whole area is the sole financial and operational responsibility of the Suez Canal Authority. There may be trouble ahead....
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Old 3rd April 2021, 05:14 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Yes - I was under the impression that this had been more-or-less settled upon as the root cause, as early as something like Day 2 or Day 3.

The issue - both for the Suez Canal Authority and each freight shipping operator who sends ships through the canal (and whose insurers stand to lose multiple millions of dollars if/when something like this happens) - is twofold:

1) How to minimise (or, as a gold standard, eradicate) the chance of another ship running into a similar situation and totally blocking up the canal;

2) How to put better systems in place, such that if/when a similar incident were to occur in the future, the response and remedy times would be an awful lot lower than they were last week.


On both parts, but on (2) especially, I'm guessing that the issue of funding may prove difficult and divisive. Rationally-speaking, since the total losses to the freight operators' insurers from this recent event are estimated at an astonishing $9 billion, it would be "worth" the insurers to amalgamate together to spend perhaps up to $50 million towards a solution. But this whole area is the sole financial and operational responsibility of the Suez Canal Authority. There may be trouble ahead....
But surely nothing more than a little baksheesh could not fix?
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Old 3rd April 2021, 06:04 PM   #331
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I noticed that much of the Suez Canal has 2 channels. It seems that this incident justifies that type of redundancy the entire length.
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Old 3rd April 2021, 06:12 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I noticed that much of the Suez Canal has 2 channels. It seems that this incident justifies that type of redundancy the entire length.
Just over half of it is doubled, the most recent double section opened about 5 years ago.
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Old 3rd April 2021, 06:25 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Just over half of it is doubled, the most recent double section opened about 5 years ago.
Has there been discussion on doing that the entire length?
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Old 3rd April 2021, 06:54 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Has there been discussion on doing that the entire length?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if nobody in the entire history of the canal's administration ever actually raised the question of doubling its entire length? Like even after they started doubling some sections, it never occurred to anyone to talk about maybe doing the whole thing?

When Gort and Klaatu did arrive, they'd nuke us just for that. And we'd probably deserve it, just for that.
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Old 3rd April 2021, 09:11 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Wouldn't it be hilarious if nobody in the entire history of the canal's administration ever actually raised the question of doubling its entire length? Like even after they started doubling some sections, it never occurred to anyone to talk about maybe doing the whole thing?

When Gort and Klaatu did arrive, they'd nuke us just for that. And we'd probably deserve it, just for that.
That would be funny. It seems likely they would. But it has probably been like infrastructure in the US. They never get around to it.
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Old 4th April 2021, 11:54 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Was the length of time the ship was stuck really long enough to search all the containers for Hillary's missing email?
Better yet, blame a female ship captain who was many miles away.

Egypt's first female ship's captain says she was wrongly blamed for Suez blockage
Quote:
Egypt’s first female ship captain says she was subject to a fake news campaign blaming her for grounding the Ever Given container ship in the Suez Canal, despite at the time working on a ship that was hundreds of miles away.

Marwa Elselehdar was working as a first mate in command of the Aida IV in Alexandria when the 220,000 ton Ever Given got stuck, blocking one of the world’s busiest shipping routes for six days.

The 29-year-old is a celebrated feminist figure in Egypt. In 2015 she became both the youngest and the first female Egyptian captain to cross the newly-expanded Suez Canal.

Two years later she was honoured by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during women’s day celebrations. Her Instagram - a collection of motivational messages and her life on board - boasts over 30,000 followers.

But when the Ever Given became an online sensation, a rumour mill was telling the world that she was to blame.
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Old 4th April 2021, 01:04 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Wouldn't it be hilarious if nobody in the entire history of the canal's administration ever actually raised the question of doubling its entire length? Like even after they started doubling some sections, it never occurred to anyone to talk about maybe doing the whole thing?

When Gort and Klaatu did arrive, they'd nuke us just for that. And we'd probably deserve it, just for that.


The thing is, the Suez Canal is designed to run as a net-profitable (ore, more accurately, net-value-creating) entity for the State of Egypt.

As such, they would be looking for each incremental piece of capital expenditure to affect the SCA's accounts in a way which either matches or improves their current return-on-capital-employed (ROCE).

So (slightly simplified) if they're considering digging out and constructing an extra channel of canal, the additional yearly profitability which they forecast as a result of having that extra channel would, as a percentage of the overall capex cost of construction, have to meet or exceed their current ROCE.

Because of this, capital investment decisions for entities such as this are made according to very different parameters and expectations from capex decisions on publicly-funded entities. If the City of Chicago is considering building an extra elevated section of highway, there's not even an effective way of calculating "value creation", even if it was a primary consideration (it's not). All that is considered is whether it's a responsible use of public funds (or the raising of additional public debt).


One immediate way the SCA might proceed = in order both to secure funding for major capex on the canal, and to get construction work going quickly - would be to enter into a form of modified private finance initiative with some of the major seafreight operators. The operators would stump up the construction costs, effectively "hire" the SCA to oversee construction, subcontract the work itself to external private construction companies, and ultimately receive a pre-determined yearly "mortgage" payment from the SCA. The finance risk - including delay risk - would be transferred to those shipping operators.

And the shipping operators would most likely agree to take on that risk (provided that the numbers were carefully worked out) because it would be financially (and "risk-reducingly") attractive to them to be able to speed up their transitions through the canal. Plus of course it would very greatly reduce the chances of the canal ever getting totally blocked to shipping again. For the SCA, so long as the yearly mortgage payments were lower than the expected yearly increase in profits, it would be a very attractive proposition.

However, it would remain to be seen if this sort of financial project engineering could actually be accomplished in practice. Multinationals investing in Egypt infrastructure only tend to do so if either a) they maintain control over both the construction and the operational phases (e.g. Hilton building and running a new hotel), or b) it's a straightforward payment-for-construction deal. It would take a good deal of faith for any multinational to have the revenue (to them) side of a project dependent on an Egyptian counterparty over the next 30-40 years (which is also why mortgage lenders tend not to offer housing mortages to customers with dodgy finances and credit histories).
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Old 4th April 2021, 01:05 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Better yet, blame a female ship captain who was many miles away.

Egypt's first female ship's captain says she was wrongly blamed for Suez blockage


Ha yeah. The optics of that were/are unedifying on multiple fronts....
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Old 4th April 2021, 04:13 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
The thing is, the Suez Canal is designed to run as a net-profitable (ore, more accurately, net-value-creating) entity for the State of Egypt.

As such, they would be looking for each incremental piece of capital expenditure to affect the SCA's accounts in a way which either matches or improves their current return-on-capital-employed (ROCE).

So (slightly simplified) if they're considering digging out and constructing an extra channel of canal, the additional yearly profitability which they forecast as a result of having that extra channel would, as a percentage of the overall capex cost of construction, have to meet or exceed their current ROCE.

Because of this, capital investment decisions for entities such as this are made according to very different parameters and expectations from capex decisions on publicly-funded entities. If the City of Chicago is considering building an extra elevated section of highway, there's not even an effective way of calculating "value creation", even if it was a primary consideration (it's not). All that is considered is whether it's a responsible use of public funds (or the raising of additional public debt).

One immediate way the SCA might proceed = in order both to secure funding for major capex on the canal, and to get construction work going quickly - would be to enter into a form of modified private finance initiative with some of the major seafreight operators. The operators would stump up the construction costs, effectively "hire" the SCA to oversee construction, subcontract the work itself to external private construction companies, and ultimately receive a pre-determined yearly "mortgage" payment from the SCA. The finance risk - including delay risk - would be transferred to those shipping operators.

And the shipping operators would most likely agree to take on that risk (provided that the numbers were carefully worked out) because it would be financially (and "risk-reducingly") attractive to them to be able to speed up their transitions through the canal. Plus of course it would very greatly reduce the chances of the canal ever getting totally blocked to shipping again. For the SCA, so long as the yearly mortgage payments were lower than the expected yearly increase in profits, it would be a very attractive proposition.

However, it would remain to be seen if this sort of financial project engineering could actually be accomplished in practice. Multinationals investing in Egypt infrastructure only tend to do so if either a) they maintain control over both the construction and the operational phases (e.g. Hilton building and running a new hotel), or b) it's a straightforward payment-for-construction deal. It would take a good deal of faith for any multinational to have the revenue (to them) side of a project dependent on an Egyptian counterparty over the next 30-40 years (which is also why mortgage lenders tend not to offer housing mortages to customers with dodgy finances and credit histories).
Given how important the Canal is to worldwide commerce, it seems as if they should be able to raise the necessary funds.
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Old 4th April 2021, 04:27 PM   #340
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It's not like the Canal is free. You're charged a fee for going through it. I imagine that fee can be raised.
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Old 4th April 2021, 04:36 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It's not like the Canal is free. You're charged a fee for going through it. I imagine that fee can be raised.
I read that the blockage was worth 400 million dollars an hour.
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Old 4th April 2021, 04:37 PM   #342
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How many ships actually took the long way around the Cape of Good Hope / Other Route and how many just hung out in the Med / Red Sea until the canal was open?
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Old 4th April 2021, 08:07 PM   #343
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What happened to the Evergiven? Back o business as usual?
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Old 4th April 2021, 08:21 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I read that the blockage was worth 400 million dollars an hour.
The ship was stuck for close to a week. That's about 168 hours.

It's pretty neat that someone lost something like $67,200 million dollars, and yet civilization keeps on ticking like it ain't no thing.
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Old 4th April 2021, 08:44 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The ship was stuck for close to a week. That's about 168 hours.

It's pretty neat that someone lost something like $67,200 million dollars, and yet civilization keeps on ticking like it ain't no thing.
I'm not sure this is quite true. Yes, people adapt. Life does go on. But that number is describing the total effect on the economy. I also think the number is kind of pulled out of someone's ass. No question, this has a tremendous effect on the economy.

I think even more amazing although I don't think it is that surprising is the economic effect of the pandemic.

Look around Prestige. We've automated so many jobs we can survive with only a few people actually working. Most of us work doing almost superfluous jobs. And the superwealthy barely do anything.
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Old 4th April 2021, 09:03 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm not sure this is quite true. Yes, people adapt. Life does go on. But that number is describing the total effect on the economy. I also think the number is kind of pulled out of someone's ass. No question, this has a tremendous effect on the economy.

I think even more amazing although I don't think it is that surprising is the economic effect of the pandemic.

Look around Prestige. We've automated so many jobs we can survive with only a few people actually working. Most of us work doing almost superfluous jobs. And the superwealthy barely do anything.
Ironically, I'm pretty sure only the super wealthy noticed this blip in the supply chain. You and I never came anywhere close to having to adapt to eff all.
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Old 4th April 2021, 09:42 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ironically, I'm pretty sure only the super wealthy noticed this blip in the supply chain. You and I never came anywhere close to having to adapt to eff all.
Neither did they.

Do you think their lifestyles changed at all? They adapted by writing a check. It's doubtful they even did that. I just read that they will likely even profit from the event as spot shipping rates rose as a result.
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Old 4th April 2021, 11:25 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ironically, I'm pretty sure only the super wealthy noticed this blip in the supply chain. You and I never came anywhere close to having to adapt to eff all.
I think CPI will go up #% more because of what happened. That is how we will pay. Though we may not attribute the increase to this disaster.
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Old 5th April 2021, 10:47 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I think CPI will go up #% more because of what happened. That is how we will pay. Though we may not attribute the increase to this disaster.
There is no question costs will be passed on to the consumers.
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Old 5th April 2021, 11:12 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
There is no question costs will be passed on to the consumers.
My next purchase of toilet paper will cost 2 cents more per roll.
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Old 5th April 2021, 11:13 AM   #351
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Actually they could have reopened the Canal the same day, just by dropping three more ships and clearing all four lines at once. But all the cargo would have disappeared.
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Old 5th April 2021, 01:25 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
My next purchase of toilet paper will cost 2 cents more per roll.
You think that comes from abroad?
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Old 5th April 2021, 01:29 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ironically, I'm pretty sure only the super wealthy noticed this blip in the supply chain. You and I never came anywhere close to having to adapt to eff all.
Funny, my husband works from home for very little, but his work has slowed as a direct result of the blockage. A lot of stuff comes from China.
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Old 5th April 2021, 01:56 PM   #354
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This is pretty informative. It gives you an idea about how much it costs to go through the Canal and how much you save from going around Africa.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
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Old 5th April 2021, 02:17 PM   #355
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It seems like a lot, but I think it's less than the Panama Canal.
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Old 5th April 2021, 02:46 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
You think that comes from abroad?
Yes, some of it. I have seen made in china TP.

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 5th April 2021 at 02:47 PM.
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Old 5th April 2021, 03:05 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Yes, some of it. I have seen made in china TP.
In the US? The US is the largest exporter of paper products in the world. Quite interesting
that we would be importing from China. I can see Canada as they are close and also produce a lot of wood products.

Not saying you are wrong, but China doesn't make sense to me.
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Old 5th April 2021, 03:08 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Yes, some of it. I have seen made in china TP.
Which brands because all these products are produced in the US: Arizona, do you know where your toilet paper comes from?
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Old 5th April 2021, 03:13 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
It seems like a lot, but I think it's less than the Panama Canal.
It seems generally less. But both canals have a complex toll system. So maybe there are cases where it would more.
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Old 5th April 2021, 03:23 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
In the US? The US is the largest exporter of paper products in the world. Quite interesting
that we would be importing from China. I can see Canada as they are close and also produce a lot of wood products.

Not saying you are wrong, but China doesn't make sense to me.
No, the UK. There is a huge TP factory up on the Tyne too, it makes it for all the main brands but it still gets imported from China.

Our biggest DIY chain is importing concrete paving slabs from China so why would you be surprised that TP is imported.

I bet that the USA has Chinese TP too.
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