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Old 22nd September 2021, 10:58 AM   #1
dudalb
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The Debt Ceiling crisis.

I think people here don't get how serious it would get if the US defaults.
It's not going to be just another Government shutdown. It is going to wreck the economy. Don't beleive me, just look at the economic experts. A recession is a best case scenario.
The Dems cannot afford to mess this up. And, so far, they seem to be doing exactly that with the circular firing squad..and I blame the Progressive Wing , and they refusal to compromise with the centrists...for that.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:00 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
circular firing squad..and I blame the Progressive Wing
Where's that irony gif?
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:16 AM   #3
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We have nothing to worry about. I mean just listen to Mitch McConnell.

"We will never have American Default. We will raise the debt ceiling. America can't default. I mean that would be a disaster."

I mean sure he said that in 2019 when Trump was President, but I mean he has to say the same thing now surely.

So yeah the only thing that could go wrong is Mitch McConnell doing a complete 180 and fighting raising the debt the ceiling now that the Democrats are in charge and that is only going to happen if he's a spineless weasel who's a contrarian troll.

So I'm going to take this sip of water before I listen to what Mitch McConnell has to say about the debt ceiling now...

"Republicans are united in opposition to raising the debt ceiling."

*Pauses. Carefully finishes swallowing my water. Puts the glass down*

Well yes that does put us in a rather big pickle.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:17 AM   #4
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I've always thought the debt ceiling must be unconstitutional. Implicit in Congress passing of a budget must be the authorization to pay for what they budgeted, even if tax revenue falls short.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:20 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Fizil View Post
I've always thought the debt ceiling must be unconstitutional. Implicit in Congress passing of a budget must be the authorization to pay for what they budgeted, even if tax revenue falls short.
In any sane world you'd be correct.

But the word debt scares stupid people who think it's the same thing as their credit card bills and is too useful of a political dog and pony show for the side that is wrong about everything to give up.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:25 AM   #6
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For all the foreign peeps let me break down exactly what is happening. This is not an exaggeration or a misrepresentation.

1. Congress passes the National Budget which lays out things that the government is required to spend money on.
2. Congress then passes the Tax Plan, which lays out how much money the government will have to spend.
3. The President, as head of the Executive Branch, is required by law to use the money available from #2 to buy everything in #1.
4. If #2 is a bigger number than #1 (which within a rounding error it literally always is) he has to borrow money to make up the difference.
5. There is a rule in place set by Congress that the President can only borrow so much money.
6. If he needs to borrow more he needs Congresses permission to borrow more. Again this the President asking Congress to borrow money because Congress says "You have to spend this much money" and "Here's how much money we're giving you."
7. Congress can say no. As in Congress can literally go "Here's 10 dollars. I order you to spend 15 dollars. The highest amount you can borrow is 3 dollars. No I will not let you borrow anymore." This is what causes a shutdown.

It's insane. It's so functionally insane.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:32 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think people here don't get how serious it would get if the US defaults.
It's not going to be just another Government shutdown. It is going to wreck the economy. Don't beleive me, just look at the economic experts. A recession is a best case scenario.
The Dems cannot afford to mess this up. And, so far, they seem to be doing exactly that with the circular firing squad..and I blame the Progressive Wing , and they refusal to compromise with the centrists...for that.
I'm curious how it's the progressives fault. 3.5 trillion on infrastructure is Biden's plan, and they're backing him and the rest of the party.

As it stands now, there's 9 House centrists threatening to tank the deal. The fringe austerity hawks are using brinksmanship strategies to neuter one of Biden's signature (Build Back Better) agenda items.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:32 AM   #8
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I am now concerned both parties are now controlled by hard line ideologues for whom the word compromise..even within their own party....is a dirty word.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:36 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I am now concerned both parties are now controlled by hard line ideologues for whom the word compromise..even within their own party....is a dirty word.
In what world does it make sense for 200 some odd members capitulate to 9 austerity hawks?
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:45 AM   #10
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As I understand it, this mostly comes down to:

1: Raising the debt ceiling through a traditional act of congress, that is regular Senate Process, subject to filibuster and therefore requiring at least 10 Republican votes

or

2: Passing it via budget reconciliation, bypassing the filibuster and therefore not needing any Republican votes.

The Dems want to avoid using budget reconciliation to pass this, but the Republicans want the Dems to use budget reconciliation to make it as partisan as possible. This lays all the "blame" on the Dems even though much of the debt built up during Republican Administrations and Congresses.

Given how significant a default on the debt will be, I expect the Dems to finally cave and pass it via reconciliation.

At least, that's my understanding of the issue. Am I wrong?

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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:47 AM   #11
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"My fellow Americans. The government is shutdown. It is shutdown because Congress told the President to buy stuff but didn't give him enough money to buy it. We were going to give the President permission to borrow more money in order to buy the stuff we had already ordered him to buy with the money we had already given him, but some members of Congress decided to start talking and not shut up which is an official rule in Congress because apparently we're all mentally 8 years old."
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:49 AM   #12
dudalb
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
As I understand it, this mostly comes down to:

1: Raising the debt ceiling through a traditional act of congress, that is regular Senate Process, subject to filibuster and therefore requiring at least 10 Republican votes

or

2: Passing it via budget reconciliation, bypassing the filibuster and therefore not needing any Republican votes.

The Dems want to avoid using budget reconciliation to pass this, but the Republicans want the Dems to use budget reconciliation to make it as partisan as possible. This lays all the "blame" on the Dems even though much of the debt built up during Republican Administrations and Congresses.

Given how significant a default on the debt will be, I expect the Dems to finally cave and pass it via reconciliation.

At least, that's my understanding of the issue. Am I wrong?
Normally I would pass it off as political theater, but this time I am really afraid it might happen. The Dems are cutting it very close with their infighitng, and I have anightmare scenrio of the GOP in congress doing a fillibuster to let it happen because they think it will help them politically.
That is what we have come two.
And I more certain the ever i am right about upheavel and political violence that amounts to a second Civil war being almost inevitable.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:50 AM   #13
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They don't do that anymore, that would be silly. They ask you to pretend that they're still talking and not shutting up, and then everyone just goes home.

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I have anightmare scenrio of the GOP in congress doing a fillibuster to let it happen because they think it will help them politically.
Then get Manchin to support removing it. It's in the hands of the centrist Democrats, so yes we're probably screwed because the ones that aren't bought and paid for are dim-witted throwbacks who lack the foresight to see an approaching disaster over their desperate craving to return to business as usual.

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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:52 AM   #14
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the usual suspect on how to deal with the debt ceiling:

https://www.businessinsider.com/mint...ceiling-2021-9

the plan is for Yellen to mint a $1 trillion coin, and (here comes the clever part) give it to me for safekeeping.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 11:52 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And I more certain the ever i am right about upheavel and political violence that amounts to a second Civil war being almost inevitable.
We know.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:03 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
We know.
You seem dismissive, Joe. Why is that?
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:06 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I am now concerned both parties are now controlled by hard line ideologues for whom the word compromise..even within their own party....is a dirty word.
I don't know why you're so intent on both-siding this. The Democrats wouldn't need unanimity (an absurd expectation for any grouping of humans) if it weren't for Republican obstructionism that has become their SOP since a black man had the unmitigated gall to be elected president.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:06 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"My fellow Americans. The government is shutdown. It is shutdown because Congress told the President to buy stuff but didn't give him enough money to buy it. We were going to give the President permission to borrow more money in order to buy the stuff we had already ordered him to buy with the money we had already given him, but some members of Congress decided to start talking and not shut up which is an official rule in Congress because apparently we're all mentally 8 years old."

Hey, the Government Shutdown is just one of bad things that is going to happen if the Government defaults. We are talking about a farily deep recession as a best case scenario.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:07 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
I don't know why you're so intent on both-siding this. The Democrats wouldn't need unanimity (an absurd expectation for any grouping of humans) if it weren't for Republican obstructionism that has become their SOP since a black man had the unmitigated gall to be elected president.
I agree, but to a degree we are talking about political reality:if it happens, the Dems are going to get the blame.
I agree the election of Obama has driven the GOP insane.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:10 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think people here don't get how serious it would get if the US defaults.
It's not going to be just another Government shutdown. It is going to wreck the economy. Don't beleive me, just look at the economic experts. A recession is a best case scenario.
The Dems cannot afford to mess this up. And, so far, they seem to be doing exactly that with the circular firing squad..and I blame the Progressive Wing , and they refusal to compromise with the centrists...for that.

The progressives did compromise with the centrists. It's not "the centrists" taking us to the brink, it's like a dozen austerity hawks or bought-and-paid-for corporate ghouls.

In the house, there's 9 that refuse to toe the party line.

In the Senate, Manchin and Sinema are the primary problem.

It's hundreds of party members in perfect alignment against like a dozen stubborn ones bringing everything to the brink.

It's not the progressives domestic agenda that is at stake here, it's Biden's. Big spending on infrastructure is one of his signature political agenda items, and the progressives have been supporting him the entire time. The knife in the back isn't coming from the left.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:14 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I agree, but to a degree we are talking about political reality:if it happens, the Dems are going to get the blame.
I agree the election of Obama has driven the GOP insane.
I don't think the Dems would get the blame.
They are squarely on record to try to get more unemployment and healthcare into communities against the unreasonable resistance of Republicans.
Trump raise the debt to pay the rich - Dems want to do the same to pay joe-average.

I think the Joes of this world think it's their time to get some.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:15 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I don't think the Dems would get the blame.
They are squarely on record to try to get more unemployment and healthcare into communities against the unreasonable resistance of Republicans.
Trump raise the debt to pay the rich - Dems want to do the same to pay joe-average.

I think the Joes of this world think it's their time to get some.
The shouldn't get the blame, but they will.

The Obama years proved that intentionally obstructing government and causing dysfunction is a winning strategy for the conservatives.

The real question is why a handful of supposed Democrats are aligning themselves with Republicans rather than their own party.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:23 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The shouldn't get the blame, but they will.

The Obama years proved that intentionally obstructing government and causing dysfunction is a winning strategy for the conservatives.

The real question is why a handful of supposed Democrats are aligning themselves with Republicans rather than their own party.
Because it's a strategy that works as well for them in the primaries as it does against them in the general.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:23 PM   #24
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Because humans aren't automatons who can only think within the concept of "the party."

Listen I get how much it functionally breaks the system now (mainly in that we have a fundamentally broken system that never accounted for obstructionism), but in the abstract not toeing a party line isn't something we should demonize.

As well you are aware whenever the Progressive find themselves too good to agree with the Democrats.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:26 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I don't think the Dems would get the blame.
They are squarely on record to try to get more unemployment and healthcare into communities against the unreasonable resistance of Republicans.
Trump raise the debt to pay the rich - Dems want to do the same to pay joe-average.

I think the Joes of this world think it's their time to get some.
I would agree if the Radical Right wasn't given the benefit of the doubt every time something goes wrong. I would agree if Radical Right media wasn't brainwashing 70 million+ people into believing that Biden is already worse than Trump.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:29 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Because humans aren't automatons who can only think within the concept of "the party."

Listen I get how much it functionally breaks the system now, but in the abstract not toeing a party line isn't something we should demonize.

As well you are aware whenever the Progressive find themselves too good to agree with the Democrats.
Sure.

The problem is that, when pushed to explain their position, the reasoning is often extremely unpopular with the general public.

Or, as is sometimes the case, it's clearly motivated by legalized corruption.

As in the example of the pharma drug pricing bill that failed:

Quote:
The three conservative Democratic lawmakers threatening to kill their party’s drug pricing legislation have raked in roughly $1.6m of campaign cash from donors in the pharmaceutical and health products industries. One of the lawmakers is the House’s single largest recipient of pharmaceutical industry campaign cash this election cycle, and another lawmaker’s immediate past chief of staff is now lobbying for drugmakers.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...on-prices-bill

Let them explain how they only previously supported the same kind of bill because they knew it couldn't pass

Quote:
It’s worth noting that Peters, Schrader and Rice all voted in favor of HR 3 in the previous Congress. Politico wrote in May that Peters “said he cast that vote knowing it had no chance of becoming law at the time. He said he supported it only to ‘start a conversation about lowering the cost of prescription drugs’.”
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:30 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I am now concerned both parties are now controlled by hard line ideologues for whom the word compromise..even within their own party....is a dirty word.
"Now concerned".
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Old 22nd September 2021, 12:41 PM   #28
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Even the most "radical" program of Democrats in Congress is nothing but a standard election program in many European countries. Yes, there are bold plans, but the GOP has blocked efforts to fight climate change for so long that drastic measures are required.
Remember that cap&trade used to be a Republican idea.
As usual, most policies from the Democrats (like healthcare, path to citizenship, UBI) are ideas that came originally from Conservatives.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 01:32 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I don't think the Dems would get the blame.
They are squarely on record to try to get more unemployment and healthcare into communities against the unreasonable resistance of Republicans.
Trump raise the debt to pay the rich - Dems want to do the same to pay joe-average.

I think the Joes of this world think it's their time to get some.

The party in power almost always gets the blame..whether they deserve it or not. I give you 2010 as an example.
I don't have your faith in the joes of the world.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 01:34 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I would agree if the Radical Right wasn't given the benefit of the doubt every time something goes wrong. I would agree if Radical Right media wasn't brainwashing 70 million+ people into believing that Biden is already worse than Trump.
I won't disagree with what you say, but I will point out that the Party in power always gets the blame even if they don't really deserve it,and it has been that way for a long,long,time.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 02:13 PM   #31
Babbylonian
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I won't disagree with what you say, but I will point out that the Party in power always gets the blame even if they don't really deserve it,and it has been that way for a long,long,time.
As evidenced by your own willingness to assign said blame?
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Old 22nd September 2021, 02:30 PM   #32
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
As evidenced by your own willingness to assign said blame?
As shown by history.
Voters always take out their frustrations on the party in power,whether it is justified or not.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 02:31 PM   #33
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How a debt default would be a lot more serious then just another Government Shutdown"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/22/polit...nings/index.ht
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

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Old 22nd September 2021, 02:48 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
In any sane world you'd be correct.

But the word debt scares stupid people who think it's the same thing as their credit card bills and is too useful of a political dog and pony show for the side that is wrong about everything to give up.
And this is the most frustrating thing when it comes to government debt. Household and government debt are not remotely similar.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 03:09 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Normally I would pass it off as political theater, but this time I am really afraid it might happen. The Dems are cutting it very close with their infighitng, and I have anightmare scenrio of the GOP in congress doing a fillibuster to let it happen because they think it will help them politically.
That is what we have come two.
And I more certain the ever i am right about upheavel and political violence that amounts to a second Civil war being almost inevitable.
I get it. You love the Civil War so much you want another one. And you will blame the progressives because of AOC’s provocative dress or something.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 03:11 PM   #36
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Leon Redbone McConnell 2018 - The country shouldn't be held hostage
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Old 22nd September 2021, 04:36 PM   #37
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Stupid, imaginary problems require stupid, imaginary solutions.

Go through reconciliation and pass a bill raising the debt ceiling by $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (that's a trillion-trillion dollars). Then call the bill something like the "The Debt Ceiling Is Forking Stupid But Some Dumbasses Think That Holding The Country Hostage Every Six Months Is Okay, So We Are Passing This Stupidly Named Bill To Not Only Solve The Problem For The Foreseeable Future But Also To Draw Attention To And Remind Our Descendants How Stupid The Debt Ceiling Is" Act of 2021.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 05:06 PM   #38
tyr_13
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Originally Posted by Random View Post
Stupid, imaginary problems require stupid, imaginary solutions.

Go through reconciliation and pass a bill raising the debt ceiling by $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (that's a trillion-trillion dollars). Then call the bill something like the "The Debt Ceiling Is Forking Stupid But Some Dumbasses Think That Holding The Country Hostage Every Six Months Is Okay, So We Are Passing This Stupidly Named Bill To Not Only Solve The Problem For The Foreseeable Future But Also To Draw Attention To And Remind Our Descendants How Stupid The Debt Ceiling Is" Act of 2021.
There are two Democratic Senators who would tank that, not based on any rational argument, but because they want to be seen as moderates when they're nothing but unthinking centrists.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 05:40 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think people here don't get how serious it would get if the US defaults.
It's not going to be just another Government shutdown. It is going to wreck the economy. Don't beleive me, just look at the economic experts. A recession is a best case scenario.
The Dems cannot afford to mess this up. And, so far, they seem to be doing exactly that with the circular firing squad..and I blame the Progressive Wing , and they refusal to compromise with the centrists...for that.
Oh for pity's sake. McConnell openly flouts that he's dumping the issue on the Democrats and we know he had a long history of doing anything to sabotage Obama and you are saying the Democrats are the one's messing up?



I hope they go with the couple trillion dollar coin option.
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Old 22nd September 2021, 05:45 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
I don't know why you're so intent on both-siding this. The Democrats wouldn't need unanimity (an absurd expectation for any grouping of humans) if it weren't for Republican obstructionism that has become their SOP since a black man had the unmitigated gall to be elected president.
Better said than I did.
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