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Tags Brexit , Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

View Poll Results: How long will UK Prime Minister Theresa May Last?
She'll last a month at most 8 17.78%
She won't last out the week 3 6.67%
She'll last for two weeks 2 4.44%
She'll last until the next Tory Conference in October 2017 20 44.44%
She'll last until the next General Election 8 17.78%
She'll ride out the storm and serve the full term 2 4.44%
Who cares <shrug>? 2 4.44%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

Old 10th September 2018, 12:07 PM   #401
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
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And her previous post, which is quite snarky - my highlighting:

Originally Posted by liverpoolmiss
The unopposed coronation of Theresa May in 2016 might be misleading people. The leadership election rules were designed with the usual scenario in mind - Conservatives lose a General Election, the leader resigns, then a leisurely contest while in opposition. This doesn't work in the current situation.

Firstly, either May quits as leader, and who could blame her. Or 48 MPs sign a coup letter.

Then a bunch of MPs formally submit their names. May might fight on as a candidate.

Then there's the first battle, including enlisting the tabloids, The Times etc. In 2016 this part disintegrated in various comic ways and May was the only one not to shoot herself in the foot. This is highly unlikely to happen again. The drunks will be fighting in the puddle and all the party splits on Brexit will be plain to see. It's possible that May would lose the confidence of the House during this squabble, if some Tory MPs split off in despair.

Then there's the ballot of MPs. The weakest is eliminated, further rounds of voting are held until all but the top 2 are eliminated.

Then it goes out to the retirement homes and the members of the Conservative Party get their vote. Trying to win the youth vote, those aged under 85, is probably a weaker tactic than trying to win the core over-85s vote. This is a lengthy process, involving yet more TV interviews, tabloid stupidity and local campaigning. When Cameron resigned, the whole thing was expected to take 3.5 months to complete. They then resolved to do it faster, expecting 77 days from resignation to new leader. A coup now would take us to at least the end of November.

Then a new leader is elected. But that leader would need to obtain the confidence of the House. Would all Conservative MPs stay on board? Would the DUP bribe remain in force? Could Corbyn orchestrate a confidence vote?

Assuming the confidence of the House is indicated, the new leader is invited to Buckingham Palace to grovel before an old lady. We would have a new Prime Minister. One chosen by an incredibly narrow and elderly segment of the population.

Throughout this time Theresa May remains PM. Even if she quits as leader, it doesn't mean she's not PM. There is no mechanism for a temporary PM. The Cabinet remains the Cabinet. There's no way of halting parliamentary business. There's no way of pausing Brexit negotiations.

Getting a new PM in early December blows all Brexit negotiation deadlines. Everything would seize up while we wait, with a lame-duck Theresa May still PM but utterly powerless. And that would be followed by a new PM fundamentally hobbled by a Conservative Party thatís just gone through a civil war.

All this talk about Johnson overthrowing May is based on fiction Ė the fiction that politics is a swift duel between rivals. In reality it wonít work that way. Conservative MPs know they cannot risk a civil war, cannot have a lame duck PM, cannot let their fantasy Brexits to be exposed in public. Disintegration of the government would be highly likely, and a General Election would be another fiasco with potentially the disaster of a Corbyn government, the break-up of the UK and the end of the Conservative Party. You think 48 MPs would risk that, simply to assuage Boris Johnson's ego?
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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