Conspiracy Theory? US civil war if Trump loses election but won't relinquish power?

[Orphia Nay]

Will Trump concede that his presidency is over (be it in November, or in 4 years time)?

I know someone who's saying that "everyone thinks" that there will probably be a civil war.

They say it will be Democrats & Military -v- Republicans & Police.

Is this a conspiracy theory?

Or just banter by people watching too many war shows and caught up in Blue -v- Red arguments?

[whatsthedreamnow]

The imminent unprecedented failure to peacefully transition power isn't a CT. It's just what's coming. Won't be pretty.

[Norman Alexander]

There won't be a civil war. If there is any war, it will be Donald Trump's desperate war with reality.

If he loses fairly, he will do what he always does when any of his other businesses have finally gone under: Try to salvage and hide the remains of the ill-gotten gains in overseas untouchable banks; **** on the carpets and smear it on the walls in a fit of pique; carry on like a madman as he is escorted out the door by the Secret Service; continue to tweet constantly that it was all a set-up; and escape to Moscow or somewhere else he can't be extradited for whatever crimes, big or small, he has committed.

That, or the big white van rolls up and he gets a free ride to a secluded country club with a big fence where he can carry on like Salieri after Mozart.

[Matthew Ellard]

I agree with Norman. Trump will leave.

However, I am suspicious Trump will try to establish an extreme conservative media platform, as suggested by the Trump organisation's early negotiation to acquire One America News Network. I doubt Murdoch (Fox News) will allow his conservative advertising revenue to be diluted by such competition from Trump. I also don't think Murdoch wants to continue paying eight or so pro-Trump talking heads on Fox News, when Trump is voted out. Therefore Murdoch will continue to occasionally allow Fox talking heads to say anti-Trump things, while simultaneously extending their post contract moratoriums against working for a competitor. This will prevent the Trump organisation from snapping up Hannity or that other idiot Carlson, after Murdoch sacks them. I imagine Fox News talking heads are starting to get nervous.

[Leftus]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Will Trump concede that his presidency is over (be it in November, or in 4 years time)?

I know someone who's saying that "everyone thinks" that there will probably be a civil war.

They say it will be Democrats & Military -v- Republicans & Police.

Is this a conspiracy theory?

Or just banter by people watching too many war shows and caught up in Blue -v- Red arguments?

There is a bit of a cart before the horse going on here in that Biden and co have yet to win, but as I said in another thread, this is pure political porn level fantasy. Remember, Trump wasn't "supposed" to win the first time.

That being said, even if he doesn't concede, so what? It's not a requirement. If he loses and Roberts swears in Biden, then the machinery of the federal government moves forward. It's not like Trump has the keys to the oval office. Fun fact, most of the interior doors in the WH have Marines guarding them. Had an associate go to the White House for some ceremony, got a bit lost, but the Marines were opening doors for him because he was wearing his agency credentials.

I doubt that even the Senate, if it doesn't flip, would play along. I doubt the Supreme Court would play along either. The machinery of the federal government, wouldn't play along either. I really doubt the Secret Service would, say, not treat Biden as President were he properly sworn in, no matter what Trump does.

Trump would do what he does - file lawsuits, and tweet. Until Twitter applies the rules they subject us mere normal to.

The notion that he would be like a toddler and throw a temper tantrum is mere wishful thinking.

[eerok]

I wouldn't call this a conspiracy theory. It's wildly speculative and implausible, but thinking the worst of Trump is not exactly unwarranted.

[Dave Rogers]

Originally Posted by Leftus

The notion that he would be like a toddler and throw a temper tantrum is mere wishful thinking.

I'm not so sure about that, because he seems to throw temper tantrums over anything he doesn't like, and I see no reason why losing the election would be any different; the notion that his temper tantrum would have any serious effects, though, seems an unlikely one.

Dave

[theprestige]

Doesn't a conspiracy theory need a conspiracy? Where's the conspiracy here?

Also, what exactly does your friend imagine a civil war to be? What is this supposed to look like? Secession? A coup? A slapfight on Twitter?

[Leftus]

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers

I'm not so sure about that, because he seems to throw temper tantrums over anything he doesn't like, and I see no reason why losing the election would be any different; the notion that his temper tantrum would have any serious effects, though, seems an unlikely one.

Dave

When you say throw temper tantrums, are you talking about throwing himself on the floor, screaming? Or just twitter nonsense?

I'm not saying he won't run wild on twitter for a bit. He would. He won't throw himself on the ground screaming and throwing a fit.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Will Trump concede that his presidency is over (be it in November, or in 4 years time)?

I know someone who's saying that "everyone thinks" that there will probably be a civil war.

They say it will be Democrats & Military -v- Republicans & Police.

Is this a conspiracy theory?

Or just banter by people watching too many war shows and caught up in Blue -v- Red arguments?

Okay so the most important rule about coups is that you have to be all in. Once you start, there's no going back home and returning to your normal life. You win, you get killed, you get arrested and go away for a long time. There's not percentage in it for a career person to risk everything on such a long shot.

The other thing to remember about coups is that only the capitol really matters. The police here in the DC are won't back Trump. Most of them hate him. The DC police certainly do.

Trump could try to get his armed followers to install him as president for a second term. The problem with that is that they have no organization, command and control or a cohesive plan.

He will try to delegitimize the election and his loss as well as sabotage the transition. However, there won't be a civil war.

[carlitos]

According to highly reputable source, World Net Daily, civil war is coming either way. Heads they win, tails we lose, or vice-versa.

[Axxman300]

First, he has to lose the election.

Second, if he loses it depends on the margin of victory, and if the Electoral College comes into play.

Third, his lawyers aren't that good.

This civil war crap is just floated by morons as wishful thinking.

[wollery]

It wouldn't surprise me if he loses and people continuing to call him "Mr. President" confuses the crap out of him.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by Axxman300

First, he has to lose the election.

Second, if he loses it depends on the margin of victory, and if the Electoral College comes into play.

Third, his lawyers aren't that good.

This civil war crap is just floated by morons as wishful thinking.

Unfortunately, some of the morons will almost certainly perform some violent acts in the hope that the others will join in.

[bknight]

Originally Posted by Axxman300

First, he has to lose the election.

Agreed

Quote:

Second, if he loses it depends on the margin of victory, and if the Electoral College comes into play.

Disagree, as it is all about the electoral college always has been and until the Democratic majority passes an Amendment to the Constitution it will be the law. The Dems promised to do that after Trump won the election but had fewer votes than Hillary. Sour grapes that never materialized.

Quote:

Third, his lawyers aren't that good.

This civil war crap is just floated by morons as wishful thinking.

Agree with the civil war nonsense.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Craig4

The other thing to remember about coups is that only the capitol really matters.

I don't think that's true. The apparatus of control is what matters. Especially control of the armed forces. Even if Trump somehow barricaded the White House and locked all the legislators inside the Capitol building, it wouldn't be a coup if the military decided to take orders from the president-elect or some other successor instead.

The American government's apparatus of control is widely distributed, multiply redundant, and backed by reasonably clear rules of succession. I don't think a coup would be at all successful, unless it had the backing of a quorum of senior military officers, commanding troops loyal to the pretender. Even then, given the nature of the National Guard, a quorum of state governors would also need to be on board. And even then, it would probably still devolve into civil war.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Unfortunately, some of the morons will almost certainly perform some violent acts in the hope that the others will join in.

If that's the case, then I think we're in a civil war already.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by theprestige

I don't think that's true. The apparatus of control is what matters. Especially control of the armed forces. Even if Trump somehow barricaded the White House and locked all the legislators inside the Capitol building, it wouldn't be a coup if the military decided to take orders from the president-elect or some other successor instead.

The American government's apparatus of control is widely distributed, multiply redundant, and backed by reasonably clear rules of succession. I don't think a coup would be at all successful, unless it had the backing of a quorum of senior military officers, commanding troops loyal to the pretender. Even then, given the nature of the National Guard, a quorum of state governors would also need to be on board. And even then, it would probably still devolve into civil war.

All those lower levels of command geographically distant won't commit until what happens in the capitol plays out.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Unfortunately, some of the morons will almost certainly perform some violent acts in the hope that the others will join in.

Yes, I expect the Bugaloo or whatever they call themselves to try and start something. They've yet to be successful and I don't see that changing. There will still be some tragic localized events though.

[grunion]

The Republicans + Police would fight a long war of attrition vs a more centralized Dem + Military front. It could go on for a very long time. I suspect the red side would be more susceptible to infighting and factionalism (Qanon vs Libertarians vs Fundies for starters) but the blue coalition could be consumed by bureaucracy, with plenty of the traditional factionalism of the left. Would be interesting to see how Mass Media - Broadcast, Print and Social - breaks down along these lines.

[Leftus]

Originally Posted by bknight

Disagree, as it is all about the electoral college always has been and until the Democratic majority passes an Amendment to the Constitution it will be the law. The Dems promised to do that after Trump won the election but had fewer votes than Hillary. Sour grapes that never materialized.

Well, they lacked the 2/3rds vote of the House AND senate to convene a convention. Nor the support among the states to get 75% of the states to approve. It was a pipe dream, to be certain.

[Masque]

Originally Posted by Leftus

Well, they lacked the 2/3rds vote of the House AND senate to convene a convention. Nor the support among the states to get 75% of the states to approve. It was a pipe dream, to be certain.

I have a tendency to keep saying this, but you don't need an amendment; you just need to replace the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929.

[The Common Potato]

I sometimes compare the mindset of some Trump supporters with that of conspiracy theorists: unwarranted assertions (this is one, I guess!), followed by a doubling down, when questioned about their beliefs.

I suppose this mindset applies to many that hold strong beliefs.

[Orphia Nay]

I phrased the OP to cover whether Trump wins or not. If he wins, he stays.

But when his second term is up, I think the civil war speculation is there also, and this it's that he might want to make himself President for life, hence civil war or not.

[Ranb]

No war at all. The new president will direct the Secret Service to evict Trump if required. Most of the hot heads who claim to want a 2nd Amendment solution to "tyranny" will fold like a lawn chair just like they did when Trump had his 1st gun grab.

Ranb

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by carlitos

According to highly reputable source, World Net Daily, civil war is coming either way. Heads they win, tails we lose, or vice-versa.

There's your evidence it's a CT.

[Sherkeu]

All this talk of him losing seems like deja vu to me.

The discussion then what all about him losing...then he didn't.
At this point at that time he was down 9 to 14 points.
People could not accept it or believe that it happened at the time.
So unbelievable!
I think we may be in for a repeat.
Lessons were not learned.

[Venom]

How is that a conspiracy theory?

It's just wild speculation but there is no conspiracy necessary.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Venom

How is that a conspiracy theory?

It's just wild speculation but there is no conspiracy necessary.

The CT is believing Trump has any kind of army behind him that would support a coup, let alone believing Trump actually has the guts to try.

Does no one remember what a coward Trump actually is?

The other CT is believing the Trump cultist are in any way organized enough to carry out a civil war.

We might get another "Jews will not replace us" tiki torch march. Heaven forbid we get another McVeigh fertilizer bombing. It's like Antifa, it's a name, a concept and a few people who think they are in an organization. There is no organization behind Boogaloos or whatever they call themselves. A bunch of survivalist idiots might drink beers and think they actually have a whole organization behind them.

Remember the armed 'believers' who flocked to protect Bundy's right to steal public lands for his own personal gain? They were a joke. Good for the FBI at the time not to storm the group. Just let them go home and arrest them later. Bundy did not get away so to speak.

And his spawn who took over the Malheur Wildlife Refuge didn't get off either. Better the FBI (or whoever) stand down until the right time. They only killed one guy, they didn't repeat the Koresh disaster or the Ruby Ridge shootout.

Bottom line, Antifa is not going to battle the Boogaloos. And Trump doesn't have the guts to do anything but run off to Mar-a-Lago and whine about voter fraud.

[llwyd]

Originally Posted by Venom

How is that a conspiracy theory?

It's just wild speculation but there is no conspiracy necessary.

Yep. The civil war part is highly unlikely but there certainly could be ugly scenes if Biden wins narrowly and Trump declares the election stolen. I mean he already has tens of millions of supporters to whom empirical facts are pretty meaningless.

[Venom]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

The CT is believing Trump has any kind of army behind him that would support a coup, let alone believing Trump actually has the guts to try.

Does no one remember what a coward Trump actually is?

The other CT is believing the Trump cultist are in any way organized enough to carry out a civil war.

That.....doesn't make it a conspiracy theory. From the OP I can't get any specifics about who believes what. All manner of wacky beliefs or speculation is called a conspiracy theory these days; it cheapens the term.

I mean if there's someone out there who thinks they have inside info on armed groups secretly assembling or planning to assemble around election time, that could be a CT. But just speculating about whether it could happen isn't, even if it's a bit over the top. I honestly think the likelihood is high that some faction among Trump's hardcore base would take up arms in response to their god-king getting removed from office.

[bknight]

Originally Posted by Masque

I have a tendency to keep saying this, but you don't need an amendment; you just need to replace the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929.

The Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929 has nothing to do with the Electoral College.

https://history.house.gov/Historical...t-Act-of-1929/

That is unless you have incite that is not included in the abstract of the act in the above link.

[bknight]

Originally Posted by Leftus

Well, they lacked the 2/3rds vote of the House AND senate to convene a convention. Nor the support among the states to get 75% of the states to approve. It was a pipe dream, to be certain.

Agreed, but that didn't stop them from bombarding the air waves with the rhetoric.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by Venom

That.....doesn't make it a conspiracy theory. From the OP I can't get any specifics about who believes what. All manner of wacky beliefs or speculation is called a conspiracy theory these days; it cheapens the term.

I mean if there's someone out there who thinks they have inside info on armed groups secretly assembling or planning to assemble around election time, that could be a CT. But just speculating about whether it could happen isn't, even if it's a bit over the top. I honestly think the likelihood is high that some faction among Trump's hardcore base would take up arms in response to their god-king getting removed from office.

What subforum does the idea of the thread belong in, in your opinion?

[Venom]

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

What subforum does the idea of the thread belong in, in your opinion?

If I started a thread like this probably US politics or social issues/current events. There's a similar thread in the former.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

[The Great Zaganza]

I am certain that a Trump-loss will lead to an uptick of far.right violence.

No need to call it a civil war.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Venom

If I started a thread like this probably US politics or social issues/current events. There's a similar thread in the former.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

Like you say, there's already a thread on this there. One can discuss the non-CT stuff there. Personally I think that thread belongs here.

It's a CT that any of this will happen. People who imagine there will be a civil war are idiots. But as far as the CT goes, they believe Trump has some army backing him up.

[varwoche]

I see the opposite. Civil war if he wins.

The dye was cast with his brazen voter suppression campaign. Everything will spin out of control rapidly.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

I am certain that a Trump-loss will lead to an uptick of far.right violence.

No need to call it a civil war.

I agree. We'll see more lone wolf attacks on stuff they don't like and more along the lines of Bundy Ranch and Malheur.

[Craig4]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

I am certain that a Trump-loss will lead to an uptick of far.right violence.

No need to call it a civil war.

I think you're right. Most of the Gravy SEALS will stay at home, be real mad and sit on the couch and masturbate to the latest issue of "Guns and Ammo".

These Boogaloo morons who seemed to try to start race wars during the BLM protests will likely do something. They won't likely do anything major in the DC area that would have an impact on the transition. I expect some real tragedies by some lone-wolf actors but they won't impact the outcome.