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Tags Coronavirus , vaccine , vaccines

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Old 15th January 2021, 12:50 PM   #401
Bob001
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Nope. States have been getting deliveries of vaccine but the pipeline between the state having them and getting them into people is broken. Well under half of the vaccines that have been distributed to the states have been used.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

California has recently authorized training of dentist personnel to give vaccine shots. I'd think it easier to switch the ones giving flu shots. They have only used 900k of the 3M vaccine doses they have as of 3 days ago.

Do you think people are tied up giving flu shots who could be doing something else? Where's the evidence for that? The distribution of the vaccine is a mess for a lot of reasons, including the fact that the federal government turned over responsibility to the states. I just don't see flu shots as the problem. If the covid vaccine were as widely available as flu shots, and people were lining up to get flu shots ahead of people wanting covid shots, that would be different. But that's not what's happening, is it?

And here's another reason to get a flu shot:
Quote:
MONDAY, Nov. 2, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- The coronavirus and the flu are two entirely different viruses. But a new study suggests those who get a flu vaccine face a considerably lower risk for being hospitalized if and when they get COVID-19.

And the flu vaccine also appears to significantly reduce a COVID-19 patient's risk for ending up in an intensive care unit (ICU), researchers say.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...severe-covid#1
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Old 15th January 2021, 01:38 PM   #402
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Do you think people are tied up giving flu shots who could be doing something else? Where's the evidence for that? The distribution of the vaccine is a mess for a lot of reasons, including the fact that the federal government turned over responsibility to the states. I just don't see flu shots as the problem. If the covid vaccine were as widely available as flu shots, and people were lining up to get flu shots ahead of people wanting covid shots, that would be different. But that's not what's happening, is it?
That the state is doing emergency training programs so that dental assistants can give Covid-19 shots is a pretty strong indication that there is a shortage.

Quote:
And here's another reason to get a flu shot:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...severe-covid#1
Yep. Saw that earlier. Here's a recent study that shows no Covid-19 protective effect of the flu vaccine nor reduction in severity.

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...rdId=rs-143691

Influenza vaccination has no correlation in the prevalence ofCovid-19 infection rate nor in the severity of the disease process among those who received flu vaccines and those who were not vaccinated. Vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects were equal in terms of sex, age and comorbidities.
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Old 15th January 2021, 02:36 PM   #403
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I hope he can be shown to be correct. If anyone wants to do a study to show this is correct in practice then I think a highly useful study.
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Old 15th January 2021, 02:46 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I hope he can be shown to be correct. If anyone wants to do a study to show this is correct in practice then I think a highly useful study.
I don't see anything wrong. IFR skews heavily with age. It's pretty much an extrapolation of well known IFR v age data. Applicable to first world countries with longer lifespans and lower birthrates. Less elsewhere.

Also doesn't address long haulers and problems younger people that "recover" have.

However, anywhere ICU's are maxed out or near maxed out that would be an approach that would help reduce hospital resources a lot.
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Old 15th January 2021, 02:54 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I don't see anything wrong. IFR skews heavily with age. It's pretty much an extrapolation of well known IFR v age data. Applicable to first world countries with longer lifespans and lower birthrates. Less elsewhere.

Also doesn't address long haulers and problems younger people that "recover" have.

However, anywhere ICU's are maxed out or near maxed out that would be an approach that would help reduce hospital resources a lot.
That's pretty much the approach being taken in the UK in the order of vaccinating groups.
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Old 15th January 2021, 05:08 PM   #406
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
That the state is doing emergency training programs so that dental assistants can give Covid-19 shots is a pretty strong indication that there is a shortage.
....
If they need more "shooters," it's more likely because traditional medical professionals are overwhelmed trying to keep covid patients alive, especially in California. How many flu shots are given at any one pharmacy or clinic on any given day? Do you see lines of flu shot-seekers interfering with other business? Considering all the problems associated with delivering this vaccine and getting it into arms, it's hard to see flu shots as the bottleneck.

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Old 15th January 2021, 05:17 PM   #407
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
If they need more "shooters," it's more likely because traditional medical professionals are overwhelmed trying to keep covid patients alive, especially in California. How many flu shots are given at any one pharmacy or clinic on any given day? Do you see lines of flu shot-seekers interfering with other business? Considering all the problems associated with delivering this vaccine and getting it into arms, it's hard to see flu shots as the bottleneck.
I was at the local pharmacy to pick up a prescription and the woman asked if I'd like a flu shot. I think it's just automatic this time of year. But I'm wondering why they have to train dentist assistants?

But you're right. The entire distribution and planning is chaotic at the state and local level. And they had plenty of time to organize things. So much finger pointing that it's hard to tell where the real bottlenecks are. The lack of jabbers may well just be more finger pointing rather than some significant problem.
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Old 15th January 2021, 09:30 PM   #408
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Latest updates from:

The Bloomberg tracker
They have added some new information, specifically the number of doses administered per day, which is a 7-day moving average.
Quote:
The biggest vaccination campaign in history has begun. More than 37.9 million doses in 49 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 2.41 million doses a day, on average.

Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 13 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 844,387 doses per day were administered.
So, 13 million in the US and about 38 million worldwide. While it finally seems like some progress is being made, those rates highlighted above suggest it's still going to be a long time before we reach any level approaching herd immunity. That would be about a little over a year to get everyone in the United states vaccinated with one dose, and over two years assuming that 2 doses are required. For the whole world, it would take almost 9 years at this rate, just for 1 dose per person. Of course, these rates will probably rise in the future, but just for reference.

The Our World in Data tracker
Doses administered per 100 population:
Quote:
Israel 25.34
United Arab Emirates 16.84
Bahrain 6.44 (Jan 14, 2021)
United Kingdom 5.42 (Jan 14, 2021)
United States 3.71
Denmark 2.54 (Jan 14, 2021)
Slovenia 1.69 (Jan 14, 2021)
Italy 1.66
Spain 1.64
Ireland 1.57 (Jan 13, 2021)
Germany 1.15 (Jan 14, 2021)
Turkey 0.73
Russia 0.69 (Jan 13, 2021)
France 0.6
Saudi Arabia 0.51 (Jan 11, 2021)
World 0.46 (Jan 14, 2021
So, once again, Israel remains at the front of the pack, with over 25 doses per 100 people administered so far. Presumably, the most vulnerable in their population are soon going to be protected. However, it doesn't yet appear to be reflected in falling rates for either infections or deaths in Israel yet:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

You can look at the graphs and the 7-day moving averages and it's not yet obvious that either have peaked and started to fall yet. Maybe in a few more weeks it will start to be reflected in the Worldometer graphs.
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Old 15th January 2021, 10:56 PM   #409
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Latest updates from:

The Bloomberg tracker
They have added some new information, specifically the number of doses administered per day, which is a 7-day moving average.

So, 13 million in the US and about 38 million worldwide. While it finally seems like some progress is being made, those rates highlighted above suggest it's still going to be a long time before we reach any level approaching herd immunity. That would be about a little over a year to get everyone in the United states vaccinated with one dose, and over two years assuming that 2 doses are required. For the whole world, it would take almost 9 years at this rate, just for 1 dose per person. Of course, these rates will probably rise in the future, but just for reference.

The Our World in Data tracker
Doses administered per 100 population:


So, once again, Israel remains at the front of the pack, with over 25 doses per 100 people administered so far. Presumably, the most vulnerable in their population are soon going to be protected. However, it doesn't yet appear to be reflected in falling rates for either infections or deaths in Israel yet:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

You can look at the graphs and the 7-day moving averages and it's not yet obvious that either have peaked and started to fall yet. Maybe in a few more weeks it will start to be reflected in the Worldometer graphs.
It may be a month before there is much impact. The significant figure to watch for is deaths per day. They have protected the vulnerable, so deaths should go down to nearly zero. But before this happens the vaccine must be given time to work and then those that are already sick to die or fail to die.

Once the above has happened I will want to know where my vaccination is. This is the sort of evidence I want to see first.
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Old 15th January 2021, 11:26 PM   #410
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
So, 13 million in the US and about 38 million worldwide. While it finally seems like some progress is being made, those rates highlighted above suggest it's still going to be a long time before we reach any level approaching herd immunity. That would be about a little over a year to get everyone in the United states vaccinated with one dose, and over two years assuming that 2 doses are required. For the whole world, it would take almost 9 years at this rate, just for 1 dose per person. Of course, these rates will probably rise in the future, but just for reference.
Moderna has said that they are certain that their vaccine is effective for a year, but the haven't given any guarantees beyond that. If the effect begins fading after a year and if this holds for the other vaccines, we need to significantly speed up the vaccination rate or we will never have a high enough fraction of the population that is immune to achieve herd immunity.

IMC(ynical)O, the vaccination rate in the US won't be more than a trickle before April and won't shift into high gear until June. I don't bother to keep tabs on who is giving vaccinations where because I don't expect to become eligible until at least April (I will have turned 65 by then).
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Old 16th January 2021, 12:28 PM   #411
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There is no shortage of personnel to give shots. There’s a confluence of factors happening:

1. Low availability overall. We get about 5000 flu doses every September, we have no problem giving them all out. Walgreens, H‑E‑B, CVS and every other provider gets thousands as well. It’s not a shortage of personnel it’s a shortage of doses.
2. Some States have too strict rules on who can get it during the different “phases.” Texas is not one of them, they say give to all willing and available 1a, then 1b, then anyone; don’t let a shot go to waste. But the States where they are discarding doses are the States where providers don’t have that explicit flexibility.
3. The Pfizer and Moderna are two dose. Many providers are erroneously holding doses for the second dose, when they should be giving all out and then they would be on the next allocation targeted for the second dose. Texas ha abren good about making this clear, but I don’t think other states are.
4. Many Providers are not reporting doses given to the State databases, so it looks like fewer are being given out, when in fact they are all out. This is screwing up allocation.
5. The roll out has been a comedy of errors. There was no real plan, just send to States and let them deal with it. Should have been federally run, I think.
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Old 16th January 2021, 12:59 PM   #412
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
....
2. Some States have too strict rules on who can get it during the different ďphases.Ē Texas is not one of them, they say give to all willing and available 1a, then 1b, then anyone; donít let a shot go to waste.
....
Question: Is Texas residency required? Apparently Florida is offering them to anybody who meets age and other requirements without regard to residency, in part because so many elderly spend their winters there even when their legal address is elsewhere, and there are reports that people are flying in to get vaccinated.
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Old 16th January 2021, 01:25 PM   #413
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Locally, the vaccination seems to be going well, so far.

Quote:
“We have vaccinated about 60% of over 80s, as well as lots of care home staff.

“The take-up rate is around 96% of people, and around two-thirds of the vaccines used are the Pfizer type.

“GPs are doing a great job, and it’s going really well.”

He said that by the end of March, the majority of over 50s will have been offered the vaccine. This process will be helped by new vaccination centres being able
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Old 16th January 2021, 02:40 PM   #414
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Question: Is Texas residency required? Apparently Florida is offering them to anybody who meets age and other requirements without regard to residency, in part because so many elderly spend their winters there even when their legal address is elsewhere, and there are reports that people are flying in to get vaccinated.
Regardless what FL has put on the 'you are eligible' list, people are lining up for hours in locations that will run out of vaccine before the line ends.

There are many pharmacists capable of giving injections here as well as our medics. I'm not sure how many of those pharmacists are being recruited to give COVID vaccine.

Seattle sent medics out to give vaccinations at nursing homes which is interesting if there is a shortage of injection givers since all nursing homes have staff qualified to do that.

I don't know why they would turn to hygienists except many of them are already trained to administer dental anesthesia (novocaine).

It's not just people who can give shots, it's all the education people need to give this vaccine. How it is properly stored and the fact you can't shake it are new for people used to giving vaccinations. And one needs to give information to patients about the mRNA vaccines that requires some training.

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Old 17th January 2021, 04:50 AM   #415
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UK on track to offer vaccine to all adults by September.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55694967

Just in time to start again with the older population ready for next winter. No doubt they'll need to tweak the vaccines for the latest mutations.
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Old 17th January 2021, 07:51 AM   #416
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post

I don't know why they would turn to hygienists except many of them are already trained to administer dental anesthesia (novocaine)..
I just had the image of someone going for a covid vaccine, and the hygienist saying "open wide while I inject it into your gums"

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Old 17th January 2021, 09:39 AM   #417
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Looks like Canada might have a little glitch in its supply...

From: CBC
...global pharmaceutical giant Pfizer will temporarily reduce shipments of its vaccine to Canada...Pfizer will send fewer doses than expected because it is pausing some production lines at its facility in Puurs, Belgium, in order to expand long-term manufacturing capacity...."Pfizer believes that by the end of March it will be able to catch up, such that we will be on track for the total committed doses for Q1"

(As a result, Canada, might delay the second booster shot to some people.)
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Old 17th January 2021, 12:25 PM   #418
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Interesting dilemma if you're over 80 and in a care home, quite a few are dying from the vaccine: https://apnews.com/article/denmark-c...2e009626c15844
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Old 17th January 2021, 09:33 PM   #419
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Regardless what FL has put on the 'you are eligible' list, people are lining up for hours in locations that will run out of vaccine before the line ends.

There are many pharmacists capable of giving injections here as well as our medics. I'm not sure how many of those pharmacists are being recruited to give COVID vaccine.

Seattle sent medics out to give vaccinations at nursing homes which is interesting if there is a shortage of injection givers since all nursing homes have staff qualified to do that.

I don't know why they would turn to hygienists except many of them are already trained to administer dental anesthesia (novocaine).

It's not just people who can give shots, it's all the education people need to give this vaccine. How it is properly stored and the fact you can't shake it are new for people used to giving vaccinations. And one needs to give information to patients about the mRNA vaccines that requires some training.

We havenít found the actual administration of the Moderna vaccine to be particularly difficult. All of our MAs have been able to do it. It really isnít that different from any other vaccine as far as actually giving it goes. The problem is storage.

The way I understand it is that most long-term facilities donít have the storage ability to hold the vaccine. They may have fridges, but they donít have data loggers on those fridges. So itís not so much personnel to actually give the vaccine, which is really not a big deal, itís ensuring that the vaccine is kept at proper temps until it can be given.
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Old 17th January 2021, 09:36 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Question: Is Texas residency required? Apparently Florida is offering them to anybody who meets age and other requirements without regard to residency, in part because so many elderly spend their winters there even when their legal address is elsewhere, and there are reports that people are flying in to get vaccinated.

It is not. No one is going to ask for proof of residency at one of the mass vaccination hubs. That goes for State and US residency, by the way.

For private clinics like us, we have some leeway as to who we target as long as they are in a priority group. We are focusing mostly on our own patients and our healthcare partners...at least we will when we get more.
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Old 18th January 2021, 04:22 AM   #421
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting dilemma if you're over 80 and in a care home, quite a few are dying from the vaccine: https://apnews.com/article/denmark-c...2e009626c15844
Per the other Covid thread, it looks like statistical anomaly and nothing to do with vaccination.
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Old 18th January 2021, 04:58 AM   #422
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It might still be a good idea to let the frailest of the frail be protected by actual herd immunity when all other residents of the nursing homes as well as the staff have been vaccinated.
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Old 18th January 2021, 07:20 AM   #423
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting dilemma if you're over 80 and in a care home, quite a few are dying from the vaccine: https://apnews.com/article/denmark-c...2e009626c15844

****, ****. This is extremely disturbing, especially for those of us who have grandparents who are elderly and parents who are getting there -- and some of the members here who are themselves above a certain age, them too obviously.

Anti-vaxxing is a blight, and does no one any good: but in this case I see some serious doubts about just about everything about this lot of vaccines: Does this only limit symptoms, or stop transmission? No one knows. How long exactly does this offer protection? No one knows. If you've already got the virus once, do you need to take it again? No one knows for sure. Do these vaccines offer protection against the UK, SA, Br strains, given that those mutations hadn't been around when these vaccines had been developed? Again, no one knows for sure.

Now okay, I understand, given the very short time spent on research, what we've got is almost miraculous, and the result of great effort poured into research. And absolutely, all of those who need to be up and about, absolutely do need to get vaccinated, with full understanding of the risks and the uncertainties.

But I'm thinking, those who can afford to stay sequestered, those who can afford to spend some more months well away from harm's way, the elderly especially, should probably not rush into this just yet, but rather wait until more details are available.


Which course of action itself presents risks, I understand, and it is essential that those opting for this stay well and truly sequestered and safe. But still, it appears to me, if your circumstances are such that you can afford to wait awhile, then waiting awhile is not a bad idea at all. Wait until more information is available on the vaccines already out, and/or until even better stuff is available (e.g., vaccines that deal with all the strains of the virus, or vaccines that are more durable).

(And, to be clear: I'm not laying down some prescription for everyone to follow! This course of action is what is beginning to feel reasonable to me, given all I'm seeing and hearing, and I'm kind of bouncing this off here, to see if others think what I'm saying makes sense -- or is this kind of thinking unnecessary alarmist? why so, if so? ----- Specifically for the elderly, say 70 and above, who on the one hand are at the highest risk, and who on the other hand are, in some cases at least, well able to stay some months more fully sequestered.)


Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Moderna has said that they are certain that their vaccine is effective for a year, but the haven't given any guarantees beyond that. If the effect begins fading after a year and if this holds for the other vaccines, we need to significantly speed up the vaccination rate or we will never have a high enough fraction of the population that is immune to achieve herd immunity.

IMC(ynical)O, the vaccination rate in the US won't be more than a trickle before April and won't shift into high gear until June. I don't bother to keep tabs on who is giving vaccinations where because I don't expect to become eligible until at least April (I will have turned 65 by then).

Just how do they know that this lasts a year, can anyone throw light on that? Given that one year hasn't yet elapsed, and therefore one-year trials haven't been conducted at all -- which is no fault of theirs, obviously -- how can they say that their product will hold on for as long as that?

-----
-----

And also, for those aware of the technical details of how these things work: How exactly does a vaccine gives more durable protection than the virus itself?

My understanding is that vaccines are either small doses of the same live virus, or else deal virus, or else some other less harmful strain of virus, or else fiddling around with the RNA to produce those spike things, all of which fool the body into producing antibodies and getting into fight mode, so that if the virus does enter the body, the body is equipped to KO it out.

But the same applies to those who've actually been infected by the virus, and recovered (or else never took ill at all, because their bodies could fight back effectively), right? Even that, apparently, is no guarantee of protection from future attacks, or so they say. Given that, how on earth does a vaccine keep the body in readiness better than an already battle-hardened antibody-army?

This last, I'm not doubting that is so, but it isn't at all clear to me how this works.

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Old 18th January 2021, 09:53 AM   #424
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
****, ****. This is extremely disturbing,
It would be, if it were true. It's not been established that any deaths were actually due to the vaccine, as I understand the situation, and stating it as fact at this stage is scaremongering.
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:01 AM   #425
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
And also, for those aware of the technical details of how these things work: How exactly does a vaccine gives more durable protection than the virus itself?
A number of reasons, but some easy ones: You get a reliably large dose of the parts of the virus that triggers the immune response. It gets injected in a way that your immune system will come in contact with it, viruses might evade the immune system.
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:11 AM   #426
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
It would be, if it were true. It's not been established that any deaths were actually due to the vaccine, as I understand the situation, and stating it as fact at this stage is scaremongering.

But the article does say, "The agency listed fever and nausea as side effects which ďmay have led to the deaths of some frail patients".

So that people who're "frail", either by virtue of their age, and/or on account of other co-morbidities, seem to be at risk from the vaccine (or at least, from possible side-effects of the vaccine).

(Of course, there's the risk of the virus itself too, for these people. That also needs to be weighed against this risk. Most even in that group cannot afford to be entirely sequestered, if only because they're in care homes and such and therefore susceptible to infection borne by hired/professional carers at those places. But still, for those able to access a sequestered and safe life over the next few months, wait and watch would seem to be ...I don't know if it is the best option, but certainly one reasonable option.)

This is so ******-up, this virus thing. If it's just a question of putting yourself at risk, as it amounts to most times in most things we do, that's one thing. I mean, hell, go get the jab, then we'll see, no big deal. But when it comes to deciding what is best for those of your kin that are elderly, it's difficult to know, at times like this, what's best.
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:19 AM   #427
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
A number of reasons, but some easy ones: You get a reliably large dose of the parts of the virus that triggers the immune response. It gets injected in a way that your immune system will come in contact with it, viruses might evade the immune system.

Sorry, didn't get that. The "viruses might evade the immune system" part.

For someone that's had an episode of infection (I guess the asymptomatic cases too, but certainly the cases where the patient has recovered from symptoms, whether mild or ...not mild), I guess the immune system will necessarily have come into play, isn't it? (Except for cases where the immune system itself is impaired, leaving that aside.)

So what's the vaccine doing, that the infection itself doesn't?
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:28 AM   #428
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
So what's the vaccine doing, that the infection itself doesn't?
Coming in to direct contact with the immune system in a reliable way. It's injected*, it's stripped of any defense mechanisms the virus might have, and, on top of that, it's combined with other substances that provoke the immune system.

* I'm under the impression that researchers are looking in to whether a nasal spray vaccine for Covid might be helpful to guarantee that immune response happens in the nasal passages. Depending on the disease, injection isn't always the best way to get the immune response in to the best part of the body.
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:53 AM   #429
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Per the other Covid thread, it looks like statistical anomaly and nothing to do with vaccination.
I don't think it's a statistical anomaly so much as vaccinating people who are on the verge of dying anyway, and anything could finish them off. Reaction to a vaccine is plausible enough. In fact, it'd be a surprise if the vaccine didn't kill some people with that level of bodily failure.

Yet again, the question it raises for me is why on earth humans persist extending life of people who are that sick and have no show of recovering.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
****, ****. This is extremely disturbing, especially for those of us who have grandparents who are elderly and parents who are getting there -- and some of the members here who are themselves above a certain age, them too obviously.
As noted above, if they're not already at death's door, it almost certainly doesn't matter. It was plain from the article that these aren't people who are walking around.

Still, along with the severe reactions and anaphylactic shock deaths, it shows that there are risks with every medical procedure.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
(And, to be clear: I'm not laying down some prescription for everyone to follow! This course of action is what is beginning to feel reasonable to me, given all I'm seeing and hearing, and I'm kind of bouncing this off here, to see if others think what I'm saying makes sense -- or is this kind of thinking unnecessary alarmist? why so, if so? ----- Specifically for the elderly, say 70 and above, who on the one hand are at the highest risk, and who on the other hand are, in some cases at least, well able to stay some months more fully sequestered.)
That's a position I've heard a lot, and most of the problem is that everything is so new that you could write several books on what we still have no idea about.

Scientific research has been patchy at best, with hundreds of research papers published in the media long before any peer review, let alone the outright false reports that gained lots of publicity. The big one to me is that there seems to be a correlation in having had a 'flu vaccine and lower chance of severe Covid - how can we not yet quantify that? Or even confirm that it's true? That's simple data analysis, but it hasn't happened.

We still have no idea why some people are dying and some get past it. Some chronically ill escape the disease, while some fit people die in days. Right at the start of the pandemic I mused as to whether this was all H1N1 revisited, and I still see similarities, except that hardly touched the old. Most people who got H1N1 hardly noticed, or were asymptomatic, while others dropped dead with it. Covid obviously has vastly more serious cases than H1N1, being an entirely new virus as opposed to a variant of an existing one, but it still has that weirdly asymmetric shape of victims.

One thing is pretty sure, though - whatever the death rate from the vaccine, it will be a lot lower than the death rate from the disease. Of the 23 who died in Norway, probably ten or more times as many would have died from the virus.

Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
This last, I'm not doubting that is so, but it isn't at all clear to me how this works.
Nobody is, and if they say they are, they're lying. Every expert on disease has changed their mind at least once during the pandemic, and with the now-rapid evolution of the virus, nobody can say anything for certain.

One thing that should put your mind at rest is that with 40 million plus vaccines administered, if there were going to be any problems, you'd start to notice pretty bloody quickly. Also, the simple fact that people do croak every now and then means some people will die shortly after getting the vaccine. There have been a couple in India already: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...984378286.html
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:53 AM   #430
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
But the article does say, "The agency listed fever and nausea as side effects which ďmay have led to the deaths of some frail patients".

So that people who're "frail", either by virtue of their age, and/or on account of other co-morbidities, seem to be at risk from the vaccine (or at least, from possible side-effects of the vaccine).

(Of course, there's the risk of the virus itself too, for these people. That also needs to be weighed against this risk. Most even in that group cannot afford to be entirely sequestered, if only because they're in care homes and such and therefore susceptible to infection borne by hired/professional carers at those places. But still, for those able to access a sequestered and safe life over the next few months, wait and watch would seem to be ...I don't know if it is the best option, but certainly one reasonable option.)

This is so ******-up, this virus thing. If it's just a question of putting yourself at risk, as it amounts to most times in most things we do, that's one thing. I mean, hell, go get the jab, then we'll see, no big deal. But when it comes to deciding what is best for those of your kin that are elderly, it's difficult to know, at times like this, what's best.
I'm not saying it's not possible, but it has not yet been established that any particular death was due to the vaccine. The problem is that the very elderly and frail are likely to die anyway, you would need to look at the expected mortality for that group to see if there was a statistically significant increase in deaths following the vaccinations.

In general, it is possible that some will die from the vaccine, but the numbers will be vastly outweighed by those who are saved by it.


(A data point from history, when smallpox was common, it was found that inoculation (infecting with material from someone infected) could give a milder case of the disease than catching it naturally, leaving the person immune, usually. The death rate of those inoculated was around 2% versus about 17% of those normally infected.)
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Old 18th January 2021, 10:54 AM   #431
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Coming in to direct contact with the immune system in a reliable way. It's injected*, it's stripped of any defense mechanisms the virus might have, and, on top of that, it's combined with other substances that provoke the immune system.

Okay, that makes sense, I guess.


Quote:
* I'm under the impression that researchers are looking in to whether a nasal spray vaccine for Covid might be helpful to guarantee that immune response happens in the nasal passages. Depending on the disease, injection isn't always the best way to get the immune response in to the best part of the body.

Yep, read about that one. Both here (in this thread, else the other one in SMT), and some articles elsewhere too, apparently that's a true blocker, stops the infection itself, not just the symptoms.


eta: Quick google check, to make sure I hadn't got mixed up about what I'd read about the nasal thing: this article says that the nasal vaccines are likely to be "broader", covering more strains of the virus; and this one suggests it is ( likely to be) suitable for children as well -- and, presumably, for the "frail" elderly as well, although they don't say it?

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Old 18th January 2021, 10:58 AM   #432
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In a complete lack of surprise, low-income countries aren't vaccinating anyone.

Twenty ******* five doses administered.

All in Guinea, and even then, only the dodgy Russian vaccine.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...come-countries

I should probably be posting in the venting thread, because vaccinating people in hospices when health workers in very-high-risk situations can't get one makes my blood boil.
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Old 18th January 2021, 11:02 AM   #433
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
But the article does say, "The agency listed fever and nausea as side effects which ďmay have led to the deaths of some frail patients". ...

Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
I'm not saying it's not possible, but it has not yet been established that any particular death was due to the vaccine. The problem is that the very elderly and frail are likely to die anyway, you would need to look at the expected mortality for that group to see if there was a statistically significant increase in deaths following the vaccinations.

I understand. Point taken.


Quote:
In general, it is possible that some will die from the vaccine, but the numbers will be vastly outweighed by those who are saved by it.


(A data point from history, when smallpox was common, it was found that inoculation (infecting with material from someone infected) could give a milder case of the disease than catching it naturally, leaving the person immune, usually. The death rate of those inoculated was around 2% versus about 17% of those normally infected.)

And that's what's happening here as well, clearly. That much at least, the (far) milder symptoms, generally speaking -- even if not (as far as we can tell for sure at this time) actually preventing transmission as well.
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Old 18th January 2021, 11:08 AM   #434
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
...snip...
And that's what's happening here as well, clearly. That much at least, the (far) milder symptoms, generally speaking -- even if not (as far as we can tell for sure at this time) actually preventing transmission as well.
Absolutely NOT what is happening here.

You cannot get covid from any of the vaccines being used.
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Old 18th January 2021, 11:14 AM   #435
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I don't think it's a statistical anomaly so much as vaccinating people who are on the verge of dying anyway, and anything could finish them off. Reaction to a vaccine is plausible enough. In fact, it'd be a surprise if the vaccine didn't kill some people with that level of bodily failure.

Yet again, the question it raises for me is why on earth humans persist extending life of people who are that sick and have no show of recovering.



As noted above, if they're not already at death's door, it almost certainly doesn't matter. It was plain from the article that these aren't people who are walking around.

Still, along with the severe reactions and anaphylactic shock deaths, it shows that there are risks with every medical procedure.



That's a position I've heard a lot, and most of the problem is that everything is so new that you could write several books on what we still have no idea about.

Scientific research has been patchy at best, with hundreds of research papers published in the media long before any peer review, let alone the outright false reports that gained lots of publicity. The big one to me is that there seems to be a correlation in having had a 'flu vaccine and lower chance of severe Covid - how can we not yet quantify that? Or even confirm that it's true? That's simple data analysis, but it hasn't happened.

Yes, that's an interesting sidebar.


Quote:
We still have no idea why some people are dying and some get past it. Some chronically ill escape the disease, while some fit people die in days. Right at the start of the pandemic I mused as to whether this was all H1N1 revisited, and I still see similarities, except that hardly touched the old. Most people who got H1N1 hardly noticed, or were asymptomatic, while others dropped dead with it. Covid obviously has vastly more serious cases than H1N1, being an entirely new virus as opposed to a variant of an existing one, but it still has that weirdly asymmetric shape of victims.

One thing is pretty sure, though - whatever the death rate from the vaccine, it will be a lot lower than the death rate from the disease. Of the 23 who died in Norway, probably ten or more times as many would have died from the virus.

Sure, but. Of a population of a hundred that're getting vaccinated vs another hundred that are not, not all of those latter get the virus. Perhaps, I don't know, to pluck a random number off thin air, just ten might, if they're high-risk and therefore take care to remain sequestered. Which probably makes the thing not quite that much of a sure thing?


Quote:
Nobody is, and if they say they are, they're lying. Every expert on disease has changed their mind at least once during the pandemic, and with the now-rapid evolution of the virus, nobody can say anything for certain.

Oh? I thought it's just me. You're saying people don't really know this yet, people who're actually researching this I mean? That's ...disconcerting. (But early days yet, I know -- even if it does feel like forever already!)


Quote:
One thing that should put your mind at rest is that with 40 million plus vaccines administered, if there were going to be any problems, you'd start to notice pretty bloody quickly. Also, the simple fact that people do croak every now and then means some people will die shortly after getting the vaccine. There have been a couple in India already: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...984378286.html

I'm not sure it does (put one's mind at rest)! That self-same paragraph, I mean to say!!

But yeah, I guess if the risks had been more than fringe, we'd be seeing far bigger numbers, already, of things going wrong.

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Old 18th January 2021, 11:16 AM   #436
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Absolutely NOT what is happening here.

You cannot get covid from any of the vaccines being used.

You're right, that's not it, at all.

I'd meant, people who do contract Covid post-vaccine, get it milder. But that's not the same as getting it from the vaccine. My bad.
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Old 18th January 2021, 02:21 PM   #437
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
A number of reasons, but some easy ones: You get a reliably large dose of the parts of the virus that triggers the immune response. It gets injected in a way that your immune system will come in contact with it, viruses might evade the immune system.
Also there are basic defenses that destroy foreign particles and RNAs. If those mechanisms remove virus before immune system detects it, then there is no learning for immune system.

IIUC that should be Innate Immune System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system
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Old 18th January 2021, 02:39 PM   #438
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
In a complete lack of surprise, low-income countries aren't vaccinating anyone.
Yes, some of the wealthier countries are hogging all the vaccine doses. (I think Canada is the worst offender in terms of doses purchased.)

Given the nature of the disease (and the lockdowns that countries have to endure), its understandable that the richer countries would be hesitant to slow down their own vaccinations in order to help other countries (even if those other countries are suffering even worse.)
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Old 18th January 2021, 03:17 PM   #439
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My county is now making appointments for ages 80 and over. Last week they said 85 so I suppose that's progress.
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Old 18th January 2021, 04:09 PM   #440
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Yes, some of the wealthier countries are hogging all the vaccine doses. (I think Canada is the worst offender in terms of doses purchased.)
So I hear, but it's pretty common.

NZ has purchased 2.5 times the number of doses required to vaccinate everyone here, but we're also buying it for all our Pasifika mates to get the vaccine for free, so I think we're above criticism so far.
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