ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Economics, Business and Finance
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 28th April 2011, 10:01 AM   #201
roger
Penultimate Amazing
 
roger's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 11,465
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post

Obviously, it is advantageous to buy up the real money with fiat first before people begin to refuse to conduct business in fiat.
Obviously.

Except - I don't buy that people will (I'm distinguishing between may and will here) refuse to conduct business in currency. If they do, it will take a long time, and I do not believe anyone can predict the outcome or intermediate effects.

Everything we are seeing says the opposite. We don't really use paper/coin currency, for all intents and purposes. We keep getting more and more abstract - value is indicated with bits in computers, contracts, futures, that sort of thing. We are accelerating away from backed currency, not towards it.


And this is what I mean by speculation. You could be right. Or not. It is anything but obvious to just about every specialist on the planet (and I'm being generous - it is in fact quite obvious to just about every specialist that we are not going back to a metal backed standard). Excited posts on a forum notwithstanding, your argument is weak.
__________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.
Nature's peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop off like autumn leaves. - John Muir
roger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 10:16 AM   #202
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
Originally Posted by roger View Post
Obviously.

Except - I don't buy that people will (I'm distinguishing between may and will here) refuse to conduct business in currency. If they do, it will take a long time, and I do not believe anyone can predict the outcome or intermediate effects.

Everything we are seeing says the opposite. We don't really use paper/coin currency, for all intents and purposes. We keep getting more and more abstract - value is indicated with bits in computers, contracts, futures, that sort of thing. We are accelerating away from backed currency, not towards it.


And this is what I mean by speculation. You could be right. Or not. It is anything but obvious to just about every specialist on the planet (and I'm being generous - it is in fact quite obvious to just about every specialist that we are not going back to a metal backed standard). Excited posts on a forum notwithstanding, your argument is weak.
I suppose you could consider it speculation. I personally consider my position more akin to simply following economic laws.

I strongly urge you to watch this lecture on fiat fractional reserve systems and why they inherently move toward instability until finally reaching a cataclysmic end:
http://youtu.be/z-xR-xB84XQ

The conclusion of the lecture is that there are only two possible outcomes:

1. The banking system will go bankrupt and deleveraging will be allowed to occur. The debt will be absolved in bankruptcy, assets will be sold off, and the monetary system will be reconstituted.

or

2. The banking system will not be allowed to go bankrupt, in which case hyperinflation is the only possible outcome.

Clearly 1 financially destroys the political and banking classes first while 2 destroys the serfs first.

Either way, there is financial chaos in which metals will ultimately play a role as money.

Given that history is abundantly clear that fascist banking systems will NEVER allow themselves to bear the brunt of the fallout, hyperinflation can almost be considered a virtual certainty.

Last edited by michaelsuede; 28th April 2011 at 10:18 AM.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 10:19 AM   #203
roger
Penultimate Amazing
 
roger's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 11,465
Originally Posted by michaelsuede;7129461

I strongly urge you to watch this lecture on fiat fractional reserve systems and why they inherently move toward instability until finally reaching a cataclysmic end:
[URL
http://youtu.be/z-xR-xB84XQ[/url]
Thank you, I've enjoyed your civil discussion in this thread, however, I've seen my share of 'fractional' videos, and I'll simply say it is not for me. Life is too short, though this discussion is fun.
__________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.
Nature's peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop off like autumn leaves. - John Muir
roger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 10:22 AM   #204
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
Originally Posted by roger View Post
Thank you, I've enjoyed your civil discussion in this thread, however, I've seen my share of 'fractional' videos, and I'll simply say it is not for me. Life is too short, though this discussion is fun.
Yeah, this isn't a documentary, this is an economics lecture given by a Austrian economics professor.

It's not your standard "fractional" fare.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 10:30 AM   #205
roger
Penultimate Amazing
 
roger's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 11,465
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Yeah, this isn't a documentary, this is an economics lecture given by a Austrian economics professor.

It's not your standard "fractional" fare.
Gotcha. I did google the guy, and played the first minute or so.
__________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.
Nature's peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop off like autumn leaves. - John Muir
roger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 10:59 AM   #206
Tippit
Master Poster
 
Tippit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,748
Originally Posted by roger View Post
Once again, I was not equating the two, I was shedding light on a distinction - this time that crowing about making profits is notproof that one made a wise investment decision, which was the claim of the poster I was responding to.
In your attempt to assert that mere profits don't necessarily indicate wise investment (a point which I agree with), you couldn't help but reveal your ridiculous contempt for precious metals investors, and inflate your own sense of investing acumen because you've bought a share of stock before, and maybe you read some Graham and Dodd (what investor hasn't?). What you made clear, however, was that in your narrow view, any profits made in precious metals is not the result of wise investing.

Quote:

I'll shed light in another way - no need to tell me this is not identical to silver, it is not. Say I'm a very good poker player, one with positive expectation. Is it a good investment to play poker? No. Why? Because the variance is large. You have professional poker players that some years have 3 house and 5 100K+ cars, and then a year later are living at the YMCA. Good profits, bad investment.

It typically always makes sense to play a positive expectation game, as long as the utile value of what you win exceeds the utile value of what you might lose. Whether your mad poker skills are a good investment or not is a function of your bankroll, and your ability to gauge or value competing investments. It just so happens Phil Ivey is probably a better poker player than stock analyst, and he has the bankroll to deal with the variance. Who are you to tell him poker is a bad investment? Nobody.

Quote:

That seems like a very strange comment, given that I pointed out how horribly people have forecast silver prices, and how the experts in the field are sharply divided on where they are going next. The people with the most skin the game, and the most experience, miners, are hedging strenuously against a sharp decline. All we are getting from silver advocates are polemics, polemics that go against 300 years of pricing trends of silver. You could be right - I do not deny that, as I pointed out in the post I responded to. But any claim along the lines of "the price went up, my reasoning is correct" is baseless. Again, experts in the field consider prices unpredictable.
With respect to gold and silver, miners don't have the most skin in the game, central banks do. Miners are in the business of extracting an ounce of ore at the lowest cost possible, not necessarily speculating on the price of silver. Some miners tout their exposure to the spot price of silver as a feature. Some miners forward sell much of their proven and probable. So your claim that silver is risky because some miners hedge is further evidence that you don't know what you're talking about. You may well be better off sticking to that glorified mutual fund, BRK.

Quote:

Ad hom. Presenting an argument becomes "acting smarter"? All your response was is misreading followed by an assertion that you are right. That is not an argument. And I have no idea where you came up with CAPM - I neither raised the issue or think it is valid.

In general, if you want to have a discussion with somebody, it helps to address their points, not accuse them of saying things they didn't say, not using ad homs, and using arguments, not assertions.

So, back to reasoned discussion, I've seen nothing in this thread that convinces me that profits from silver exceeds the risk of it falling and the risks of variance (I'm ambivalent on discussing risk re variance, as sometimes variance is a great thing, sometimes not). If you can present something beyond "I'm right", or "inflation is coming", or whatever, I'll listen. But your game is going to have to be better than the experts in the field, and at the moment I'm not convinced you have the wherewithal to do that (I could be wrong, I'm unaware of your professional life).
Thankfully, I don't care whether you think I'm a qualified silver investor. Your thin veneer of contempt for "silver gamblers" is annoying, but I suppose it's par for the course. I'm not presenting you with anything, I'm not here to make you money. If you think silver is riskier now than it was at $5, which it certainly is, then I suggest you stick to riding Buffett's (a reformed silver gambler and airline stock investor, incidentally) coattail and don't buy it. But don't pretend that you understand why I or anyone else does, or that you're smarter than we are.
__________________
"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."
- Lord Acton
Tippit is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 11:52 AM   #207
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
I'd like to throw this out there as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZf3Qye0BtQ

Bernanke has only two options right now.

He can raise rates, which would cause cascading bankruptcy and implode the banking system.

or

He can print.

This is our current situation, and not a hypothetical future scenario.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 02:43 PM   #208
mhaze
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 15,718
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I'd like to throw this out there as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZf3Qye0BtQ

Bernanke has only two options right now.

He can raise rates, which would cause cascading bankruptcy and implode the banking system.

or

He can print.

This is our current situation, and not a hypothetical future scenario.
Why, that could be handled.

Just have the prez act nonchalant, golfing, basketball crap...have the media report on all kinds of OTHER stuff, ...

and don't forget to slam those nasty oil companies.

It's worked before.

It takes a lot of lying and a lot of effort, but it's worked before.

Back in those pre Internet days.

Wait....
mhaze is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 04:10 PM   #209
UWdude
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 431
Originally Posted by roger View Post
If you are right, and I don't say this to be snide, you have a multi-million dollar a year career as a silver analyst awaiting you.
1. I dont have hundreds of thousands, much less millions, to invest in silver. So no, there is no multi-million dollar career available to me.

2. If the amount of silver I had did reach millions, it would not mean millions in 2011 dollars.

Originally Posted by mhaze
Bernanke has only two options right now.

He can raise rates, which would cause cascading bankruptcy and implode the banking system.

or

He can print.

This is our current situation, and not a hypothetical future scenario.
You can either face this reality, or continue to talk about what the "experts" (who have already catastrophically failed) have to say. Finance was turned into such a deconstructive game of differing opinions that truth seemed irrelevant for a while.

But the truth is never irrelevant. And this entire American dollar, consumer/entertainment economy charade is about to collapse. The dollar will still hold value for technology and some industry, but the large share of it is real estate and finance/insurance. And both of those are over inflated. Real estate because there are simply too many dwellings and commercial properties, and finance/insurance because it is based on the ability to accrue debt from other nations, which is quickly slipping away. Furthermore, real estate is not easily traded for foreign exchange.

Most central banks have been raising their interest rates, so again, time for U.S. dollar to devalue until it makes itself more scarce.

Last edited by UWdude; 28th April 2011 at 04:11 PM.
UWdude is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 28th April 2011, 05:06 PM   #210
NewtonTrino
Illuminator
 
NewtonTrino's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
I bought my silver and gold mainly because it's pretty. I kid myself about having other reasons

I'm seriously considering moving some of my assets out of cash and into a new watch... I'm using the fact that it seems like a good investment to convince my inner cheap brain that I should buy it... (35k watch btw).
NewtonTrino is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st May 2011, 09:55 PM   #211
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,843
Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
(I stupidly cashed in yesterday morning, thinking it would dip further before picking up again)
Unless you bought in again in the meantime, it looks like you were smart to cash out:

Markets react:

Quote:
U.S. stock-index futures and Asian shares jumped, while crude oil fell from a 31-month high and the yen weakened after President Barack Obama said Osama bin Laden is dead. Silver tumbled as much as 13 percent.
Not sure that last one has anything to do with bin Laden.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st May 2011, 10:57 PM   #212
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
cashing out now would be retarded.

now is the time to buy as much as you can.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 03:05 AM   #213
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
 
Eddie Dane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Unless you bought in again in the meantime, it looks like you were smart to cash out:

Markets react:



Not sure that last one has anything to do with bin Laden.
Yup, I bought in again.

I was afraid that it would go on to break 50 without having a buying opportunity.
This morning that opportunity presented itself.

What do you guys make of the drop? OBL?
That doesn't make sense at all.
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh!
Eddie Dane is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 05:36 AM   #214
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,843
Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Yup, I bought in again.

I was afraid that it would go on to break 50 without having a buying opportunity.
This morning that opportunity presented itself.

What do you guys make of the drop? OBL?
That doesn't make sense at all.
Extreme volitility might be a sign of a speculation-driven bubble.

This might be tulip bulbs my friend.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 06:17 AM   #215
mhaze
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 15,718
Originally Posted by UWdude View Post
....this entire American dollar, consumer/entertainment economy charade is about to collapse. The dollar will still hold value for technology and some industry, but the large share of it is real estate and finance/insurance. And both of those are over inflated. Real estate because there are simply too many dwellings and commercial properties, and finance/insurance because it is based on the ability to accrue debt from other nations, which is quickly slipping away. Furthermore, real estate is not easily traded for foreign exchange.....
Taking exception with one part of your comment, the consumer/entertainment economy is quite important, and may expand, not collapse. We're not headed back to wondering how many wheelbarrows it takes to buy a loaf of bread. Crisis for the US economy is when someone cannot afford to turn on his air conditioner. Crisis is when a bottom is reached in which people demand strong and effective government action, after usually, years of ineffective action.

Crisis may yes, for one culture and group of people, be the inability to reliably buy a loaf of bread with a day's wages. But for another culture and people, it may be something quite different. Expect your friendly gubbermint to step in "to help", with a long series of socialist redistributive schemes. Crisis is when the people realize that those are futile, and that the gubbermint itself is the problem, and when they demand effective reform in spite of the costs and pain that implies.

None of this implies a collapse of a consumer and entertainment industry sector, on the contrary. People have leisure time, and losing jobs means more leisure time, often as not. They'll spend money on having fun. Likely more.

Last edited by mhaze; 2nd May 2011 at 06:40 AM.
mhaze is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 06:25 AM   #216
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
 
Eddie Dane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Extreme volitility might be a sign of a speculation-driven bubble.

This might be tulip bulbs my friend.
I realise I'm speculating, and I'm not betting the house.
But thanks for the heads-up anyway.

I just think that emotions about inflation will drive up gold and silver a LOT higher.

Those emotions are voiced the strongest on this board by two CT's and a global warming skeptic.

Oh well...

ETA:

I should add that I went back into silver with a significantly smaller amount then before. Not as sure of the meteoric rise as before.
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh!

Last edited by Eddie Dane; 2nd May 2011 at 06:38 AM.
Eddie Dane is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 06:30 AM   #217
kookbreaker
Evil Fokker
 
kookbreaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 12,398
The real money is in Neodymium!
__________________
www.spectrum-scientifics.com <- My store of science toys, instruments and general fun!

Thanks for helping me win Best Toys in Philly Voter in 2011,2012, and 2014! We won' be discussing the disappointment that was 2013.
kookbreaker is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 06:47 AM   #218
mhaze
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 15,718
Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
I realise I'm speculating, and I'm not betting the house.
But thanks for the heads-up anyway.

I just think that emotions about inflation will drive up gold and silver a LOT higher.

Those emotions are voiced the strongest on this board by two CT's and a global warming skeptic.....
Hmm...no they are not....voicing emotions.

Those are the guys that were saying the same thing a couple of years ago on this board. The "emotions", and the possibility of bubbles, occur when the rank and file begins to take the subject seriously. Emotions are from the larger group, while simple facts relating to this issue have been being said more or less the same, by a minority, for a long time.

Rather than that minority being happy that the rank and file takes them or the subject seriously, in fact they view such a phenomena as an totally expected roadsign on the freeway of inflation.



As they are now.
mhaze is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 07:12 AM   #219
zooterkin
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator
 
zooterkin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 44,750
Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
The real money is in Neodymium!
Boy, are you behind the curve! You need to be investing in unobtainium futures now...
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell
Zooterkin is correct Darat
Nerd! Hokulele
Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
Ezekiel 23:20
zooterkin is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd May 2011, 09:56 PM   #220
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/so-...ilver-equities

Quote:
Earlier we reported that Sprott had sold $35 million worth of PSLV, which caused many to panic that the precious metals guru had indicated the market top in the market. Well, as it turns out and as he just told the Globe and Mail “We haven’t lost our enthusiasm for silver.” Quite the opposite...

Quote:
So why the sales? “Every dollar of money that was raised by selling shares of [the Trust]... was reinvested in silver or silver equities,” he said.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 04:09 PM   #221
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
The Two Prices Of Silver - Fake And Real

LOL

The silver bears are back to irreverently explain why trying to play the silver market instead of hording physical silver is going to get you in trouble:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE

The bears make the point that going forward there will be two prices for silver:

The physical delivery price and the fake spot price.

The spot price is an artifact of manipulated silver contracts in the spot and futures market for silver.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spot_price
Quote:
Depending on the item being traded, spot prices can indicate market expectations of future price movements in different ways. For a security or non-perishable commodity (e.g. silver), the spot price reflects market expectations of future price movements. In theory, the difference in spot and forward prices should be equal to the finance charges, plus any earnings due to the holder of the security, according to the cost of carry model. For example, on a share the difference in price between the spot and forward is usually accounted for almost entirely by any dividends payable in the period minus the interest payable on the purchase price. Any other price would yield an arbitrage opportunity and riskless profit (see rational pricing for the arbitrage mechanics).

In contrast, a perishable or soft commodity does not allow this arbitrage - the cost of storage is effectively higher than the expected future price of the commodity. As a result, spot prices will reflect current supply and demand, not future price movements. Spot prices can therefore be quite volatile and move independently from forward prices. According to the unbiased forward hypothesis, the difference between these prices will equal the expected price change of the commodity over the period.

Let's see if the bears' take on things is actually playing out in the real world:

2010 American Silver Eagle Coin 1oz Uncirculated
$64.95

NEW Buffalo/Indian Head Nickel Art Coin 1 TROY OZ .999 SILVER BULLION
$55.95

Sunshine Mint 1 oz (.999) Fine Silver Bar - Eagle Design
$62.99

2011 Canadian Silver Timber Wolf 1 Troy Oz Coin
$61.95

2010 China Panda Series - 1 Ounce Silver Coin
$67.19

----------------------------------------------------------

spot price of silver:
$41.66

----------------------------------------------------------

yep, looks like the bears are "spot on" - get it? spot on? hahahahaha I crack myself up.

Last edited by michaelsuede; 3rd May 2011 at 04:12 PM.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 04:37 PM   #222
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
Zero Hedge has a few more things to add:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ano...ulti-year-lows
Quote:
One would think that following the total "annihilation" (as it has already been pegged by some) in silver over the past few days, that Comex would promptly reverse its "temporary" reclassification of Registered into Eligible silver, or so the believers in Comex holdings claim. Which is why to our surprise we noticed that today, the Comex announced that the ongoing inverse reclassification from Registered into Eligible continues, with Scotia Mocatta seeing another 186 thousand ounces of physical silver moving into that dark pool known as "eligible" holdings.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and...ime-same-place
Quote:
Just like yesterday and the day before, 6:30pm is now the official precious metal "bang the afterhours" launch time. As we predicted minutes ago, silver just got taken to the cleaners on what is now an apparent attempt to push silver around in the no volume part of after hours trading, in the 6-7 pm no man's land. We expect an imminent rebound after this latest attempt to trigger stop losses, probably those around $40, fails. If it succeeds in pushing silver below $40 it is very possible that the metal can promptly trade down to the mid $30s as a result. And while banging the close has been investigated by the CFTC for years (resulting in some modest smacks on the wrist recently for the ex-Moore trader who did this with impunity), we are confident it won't be before 2015 that the CFTC's commissioners investigate this particularly odd behavior in silver and gold. By then it, of course, won't matter.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/now...tf-itself-next
Quote:
Following relentless margin hikes in silver on various exchanges, here are some thoughts on what may happen as the "regulators" do everything in their power to bring down commodity prices down as the broader population increasingly creates their own gold (and as the case may be silver) standard.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 05:13 PM   #223
Zep
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 26,699
You have this thing about silver. Have you actually made a few bad decisions on the stock market with this commodity? Is that what has made you so mad about so-called market manipulators?
Zep is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 05:22 PM   #224
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
Originally Posted by Zep View Post
You have this thing about silver. Have you actually made a few bad decisions on the stock market with this commodity? Is that what has made you so mad about so-called market manipulators?
I don't think it is necessary to call them "so-called" any longer.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 05:55 PM   #225
ftl
Student
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 32
So are you actually comparing apples to apples with your numbers at the end there? I would expect that 'coins' with stamped symbols and pretty pictures are naturally going to be more expensive than just raw silver in bulk.

I don't get what those numbers are trying to prove.
ftl is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 06:27 PM   #226
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
Originally Posted by ftl View Post
So are you actually comparing apples to apples with your numbers at the end there? I would expect that 'coins' with stamped symbols and pretty pictures are naturally going to be more expensive than just raw silver in bulk.

I don't get what those numbers are trying to prove.
coin prices are traditionally a few dollars over spot, not 20 dollars.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 07:53 PM   #227
Jim_MDP
Philosopher
 
Jim_MDP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: N.Cal/S.Or
Posts: 7,034
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
coin prices are traditionally a few dollars over spot, not 20 dollars.
The hell with it... deleted.

Last edited by Jim_MDP; 3rd May 2011 at 07:57 PM.
Jim_MDP is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 3rd May 2011, 11:35 PM   #228
This is The End
 
This is The End's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 10,852
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
coin prices are traditionally a few dollars over spot, not 20 dollars.

Couldn't the percentage at a lower value be "a few dollars", while the same percentage at a higher value is "20 dollars".

For instance (don't quote these numbers) when silver was 7$ an ounce, "a few dollars" would be nearly 50 percent. At 40$ an ounce, 20 dollars is 50 percent.

You have to show us what the percentage increase was then and what it is now...... not the dollar amount.
__________________
________________________
This is The End is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 01:31 AM   #229
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 28,151
Certainly when I was in the coin business (or more specifically my family was, I used to work there in the summers), fancy silver (and gold) coins traded at a considerable premium over their face value.

The fact that people are charging silly money for coins only demonstrates that they think that someone is willing to pay silly money for coins.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 04:26 AM   #230
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
 
Eddie Dane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
Looks like silver is going to break the 40 barrier again.

On the way down.
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh!
Eddie Dane is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 04:34 AM   #231
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
 
timhau's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Looks like Finland. Smells like Finland. Quacks like Finland. Where the hell am I?
Posts: 13,434
Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Looks like silver is going to break the 40 barrier again.

On the way down.
What, owning shares of the South Sea Company land in Florida dot-com stocks real estate silver wasn't an easy, risk-free way to riches?

I'm shocked, I tell you. Shocked.
__________________
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord, in his wisdom, doesn't work that way. I just stole one and asked Him to forgive me.
- Emo Philips
timhau is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 04:58 AM   #232
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
 
Eddie Dane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
Originally Posted by timhau View Post
What, owning shares of the South Sea Company land in Florida dot-com stocks real estate silver wasn't an easy, risk-free way to riches?

I'm shocked, I tell you. Shocked.
Say, would you be interested in the remainder of my silver?
I'll throw in some nice tulip bulbs for free.
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh!
Eddie Dane is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 08:21 AM   #233
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Certainly when I was in the coin business (or more specifically my family was, I used to work there in the summers), fancy silver (and gold) coins traded at a considerable premium over their face value.

The fact that people are charging silly money for coins only demonstrates that they think that someone is willing to pay silly money for coins.
The coins quoted are not rare collectors coins.

They are bullion coins which are traded primarily on their metal content. I even included a bullion bar for comparison.

I know this because *shock* - I own several of them and follow the market closely.



They do not normally trade for 20.00 over spot.

Last edited by michaelsuede; 4th May 2011 at 08:23 AM.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 08:35 AM   #234
Fast Eddie B
Philosopher
 
Fast Eddie B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Mineral Bluff, GA
Posts: 6,124
Quote:
We expect an imminent rebound after this latest attempt to trigger stop losses, probably those around $40, fails. If it succeeds in pushing silver below $40 it is very possible that the metal can promptly trade down to the mid $30s as a result.
I love it when people make brave predictions like this one.

Translated: Gold may go to about $40. If it does, then it may either go up or down from there.

Thanks - there's so much one can do with that "prediction".
Fast Eddie B is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 09:09 AM   #235
zooterkin
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator
 
zooterkin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 44,750
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
There is no risk.

We know the Bernankistan will not cease printing money.

Ergo, there is no risk in metals.
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Silver explodes through 47 on a holiday

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hol...ver-still-buck
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
silver back over 47 today while gold hit all time highs.
Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Silver has broken 49 today and is on track to break its all time high.
What's the price now, michaelsuede? I followed your updates, but you've not posted one for a few days.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell
Zooterkin is correct Darat
Nerd! Hokulele
Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
Ezekiel 23:20
zooterkin is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 09:26 AM   #236
Francesca R
Girl
 
Francesca R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: London EC1
Posts: 18,596
Posting the current silver price would be off topic to the thread title.
Francesca R is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 09:33 AM   #237
zooterkin
Nitpicking dilettante
Administrator
 
zooterkin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Berkshire, mostly
Posts: 44,750
Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
Posting the current silver price would be off topic to the thread title.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell
Zooterkin is correct Darat
Nerd! Hokulele
Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232
Ezekiel 23:20
zooterkin is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 09:37 AM   #238
michaelsuede
Graduate Poster
 
michaelsuede's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,416
The spot is 39.

However, as the bears point out, the current price for real physical on ebay and amazon is faaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrr above that and the spread is widening.

silver eagle selling for 54.75 just a few seconds ago.

1 oz bar selling for 56.00

The spot price reported on the COMEX is no longer valid.

Of course, I hold physical, not junk ETF contracts that are going to be deemed worthless in the near future.

Half of this thread is dedicated to me bashing the SLV for engaging in fraud.

Last edited by michaelsuede; 4th May 2011 at 09:40 AM.
michaelsuede is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 09:37 AM   #239
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
 
Eddie Dane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,681
Since the price seemed mostly speculation driven, this could turn out to be quite a fall.
Moneyweek says it could go to mid 20s.

Interesting to see where it goes.
__________________
Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh!
Eddie Dane is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 4th May 2011, 09:39 AM   #240
ehcks
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 4,302
So, was I right? Silver is a bubble? Did I finally predict something, or was it too obvious?
ehcks is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Economics, Business and Finance

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:16 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.