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Old 11th May 2011, 12:48 AM   #321
The Don
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
The silver spot price will be back over 40 tomorrow.

I think my position has been vindicated already.
Currently trading at $38.40
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Old 11th May 2011, 01:58 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
I can still call up my local coin ship and buy bullion for $2 over spot.
I was in Bothell a week ago. Care to name this dealer you called?

$2 over spot isn't bad. It is what E-bay sellers were charging when it was $14 an ounce. So perhaps without all the S&H (which all the silver I bought on Ebay, S&H wasn't charged, I just assumed it as part of the premium) $2 over spot is possible.

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Old 11th May 2011, 03:39 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
The silver spot price will be back over 40 tomorrow.

I think my position has been vindicated already.
Even when confronted with a random walk, some prognosticators will end up being right.

So, "vindicated"? I wouldn't go that far.
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Old 11th May 2011, 10:42 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by UWdude View Post
I was in Bothell a week ago. Care to name this dealer you called?

$2 over spot isn't bad. It is what E-bay sellers were charging when it was $14 an ounce. So perhaps without all the S&H (which all the silver I bought on Ebay, S&H wasn't charged, I just assumed it as part of the premium) $2 over spot is possible.
Redmond rare coins at the corner of 124th and 124th in Kirkland. It's where I've bought most of my silver.
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Old 11th May 2011, 01:03 PM   #325
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And were back on 35.

Man, that stuff is volatile.
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Old 11th May 2011, 01:04 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
And were back on 35.

Man, that stuff is volatile.
so much for margin hikes reducing volatility.

today's insane commodities plunge is brought to you by margin hikes in crude.
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Old 11th May 2011, 01:06 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
And were back on 35.

Man, that stuff is volatile.
Yeah, it's pretty crazy right now.
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Old 11th May 2011, 01:11 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
The silver spot price will be back over 40 tomorrow.

I think my position has been vindicated already.
Why don't you just say that you're positive about silver in the long run?

You bought when the stuff was still cheap, so fluctuations are practically meaningless to you. And you're probably right about silver going up in the long run.

I will only get in if it makes a very significant fall, becuase I'm not getting into this rodeo.
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Old 11th May 2011, 01:30 PM   #329
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Why don't you just say that you're positive about silver in the long run?

You bought when the stuff was still cheap, so fluctuations are practically meaningless to you. And you're probably right about silver going up in the long run.

I will only get in if it makes a very significant fall, becuase I'm not getting into this rodeo.
You are right.

I will refrain from making off the cuff comments about daily movements in silver.

I would say that I will enjoy gloating when it breaks triple digits, but the more I think about it, I hope it never does.
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Old 11th May 2011, 03:37 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
You are right.

I will refrain from making off the cuff comments about daily movements in silver.

I would say that I will enjoy gloating when it breaks triple digits, but the more I think about it, I hope it never does.
Someone was claiming it was going to his $100,000 an oz.
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Old 11th May 2011, 03:42 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Someone was claiming it was going to his $100,000 an oz.
Well, consider that when the dollar becomes defunct like Zimbabwe, the price at that point is completely immaterial. It could be 100,000 or a trillion, doesn't really matter at that point.

The government has two options:

It can stop printing and let the markets/banks/government collapse into default

or

It can continue printing until the cows come home in a hyper-inflationary default.

I think it will be the later.
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Old 11th May 2011, 04:23 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
Well, consider that when the dollar becomes defunct like Zimbabwe, the price at that point is completely immaterial. It could be 100,000 or a trillion, doesn't really matter at that point.

The government has two options:

It can stop printing and let the markets/banks/government collapse into default

or

It can continue printing until the cows come home in a hyper-inflationary default.

I think it will be the later.
And you've put your money where your mouth is which is the best kind of voting we have.

Personally I think hyper-inflation is unlikely.
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Old 11th May 2011, 05:17 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Personally I think hyper-inflation is unlikely.
Reason?
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Old 11th May 2011, 06:15 PM   #334
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eBay

Delurking to point out the reason for the eBay anomalies in price. eBay cannot be trusted to measure the true worth of a commoditye because what is being presented is actually a narrow specialist market that responds to its own economics.

Firstly, you have to consider the hidden cost of each transaction, namely the remarkably high listing fee, which drives prices up from the get go. Secondly, you may be seeing a market dominated by shills. This is always a serious issue with eBay buyers, as it is a common practice for some sellers to have several accounts dedicated to driving up prices. And finally you may also be contending with auto-bidder bots from traders that buy from each other looking for the lowest price. These are markets that have very narrow margins.

In short, never believe that the real price of something is what you saw on eBay.
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Old 11th May 2011, 06:45 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
Reason?
That's like asking me the reason I don't believe in god. If someone thinks hyper inflation is likely it's up to them to show why it's likely, not me to debunk it.
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Old 11th May 2011, 10:29 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
That's like asking me the reason I don't believe in god. If someone thinks hyper inflation is likely it's up to them to show why it's likely, not me to debunk it.
Since there is no question as to how much value some people would like to steal from the currency (all they can, of course), the issue of hyperinflation revolves not around the intent and lack of restraint of the money printers but instead around people like you.

When and if YOU realize that it is better to have value in assets than a currency, and when a fair percentage of people come to that realization and act on it, that is when hyperinflation occurs.

So you see, "debunking" is not a phrase which works in a context of reality created by attitude and emotion, a reality which may occur, and which occurrence is just one physical indication of the controls and the propaganda breaking down, which hid from the common people the theft through inflation.

You could say that when the people debunk the money myth, hyperinflation may occur, but to debunk that it would not occur would require faith, in the propaganda and control that the government has over the people.

A faith based belief.
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Old 12th May 2011, 12:59 AM   #337
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What's the definition of hyper inflation?

For me it conjures up images of 1930's Germany and people firing up the stove with bank-notes.

It seems to me that there are many shades of inflation before we reach an extreme scenario like that.

Zimbabwe is mentioned a lot in this context.
Holy crap. If that is the level of mismanagement needed to bring about hyper-inflation, the US is far removed from it.

If inflation got out of control, it would be more like pre-Euro Italy IMHO.
Not a society where people trade silver coins for food, but a society where nobody in their right mind saves, everybody buys stuff on loans and people casually pay of their mortgage with a month's salary, twenty years after buying the house.

ETA:

And a society that exports high-quality products like a mofo.
Italy's industry is being killed dead by a combination of Chinese competition and an expensive Euro.
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Old 12th May 2011, 01:05 AM   #338
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We're at 34, by the way.
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Old 12th May 2011, 03:24 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
We're at 34, by the way.
Off-topic, reported!
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Old 12th May 2011, 05:08 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
That's like asking me the reason I don't believe in god. If someone thinks hyper inflation is likely it's up to them to show why it's likely, not me to debunk it.
I never said it was likely - only possible.

Like a car accident, you hope it doesn't happen, but you still insure yourself against the possibility.

And beware whenever someone says "Its different this time" - it's NEVER different this time!
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Old 12th May 2011, 05:11 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post

Zimbabwe is mentioned a lot in this context.
Holy crap. If that is the level of mismanagement needed to bring about hyper-inflation, the US is far removed from it.
Maybe.

For now.
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Old 12th May 2011, 06:08 AM   #342
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Michael, just how much silver are you hoarding? > 1,000 oz? > 10,000?

I really find it difficult to believe that anyone with more market savvy than ideology would hold onto silver at whatever low price you bought in at just for the shininess. At 10,000 oz., you could've cashed out at $50, waited ten days and bought your 10k oz back at a $160,000 discount. Same amount of silver in the hole in your back yard and 160,000 bucks to buy tinned tuna, ammunition, and bottled water and enough left over to carpet the bunker.
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Old 12th May 2011, 06:50 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
[ . . . ] I really find it difficult to believe that anyone with more market savvy than ideology would hold onto silver at whatever low price you bought in at [ . . . ]
I don't think there's any record on this forum of michaelsuede being bullish or long silver before 1st April, when the spot price was $37.8.
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Old 12th May 2011, 06:54 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Man, that stuff is volatile.
Which is why margin/collateral requirements get raised

Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
so much for margin hikes reducing volatility.
Who thinks that? They are to reduce credit/counterparty risk. If I'm your broker and I sold you a synthetic silver position and its volatility subsequently spiked, I'm going to demand more collateral or close you out, and that's nothing so altruistic as me wanting to reduce volatility.

Quote:
today's insane commodities plunge is brought to you by margin hikes in crude.
That would be tail wagging dog

(ETA: Of course if people long of commodities don't have the readies to meet margin calls, then of course they have to sell, which can exacerbate a price gap downwards if enough people do it . . . this would be an example of a correlated mistake--a lot of people too highly leveraged with insufficient apprehension of risk)

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Old 12th May 2011, 07:00 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by anduin View Post
In short, never believe that the real price of something is what you saw on eBay.
You think??

Should eBay become a market maker rather than a clearing agent, and should it facilitate leverage and short positions in stuff, I would pay more attention to its commodity prices.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:08 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Michael, just how much silver are you hoarding? > 1,000 oz? > 10,000?

I really find it difficult to believe that anyone with more market savvy than ideology would hold onto silver at whatever low price you bought in at just for the shininess. At 10,000 oz., you could've cashed out at $50, waited ten days and bought your 10k oz back at a $160,000 discount. Same amount of silver in the hole in your back yard and 160,000 bucks to buy tinned tuna, ammunition, and bottled water and enough left over to carpet the bunker.
In his defense, 160K is worthless in a hyperinflation scenario. And, despite a "watch it go up tomorrow" posts, in general he has not posed as somebody that can predict short term trends. His thesis, such as it is, is all based on long term economic trends. You can't make short term buy/sell decisions on long term models, SFAIK.

Edit: there are also significant tax consequences to selling, requiring quite a large move in prices to just break even. As it turns out, we've seen that move, but to expect anyone (who believes it's going to $1500) to have that kind of crystal ball is a bit excessive in my opinion.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:16 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by roger View Post
In his defense, 160K is worthless in a hyperinflation scenario. And, despite a "watch it go up tomorrow" posts, in general he has not posed as somebody that can predict short term trends. His thesis, such as it is, is all based on long term economic trends. You can't make short term buy/sell decisions on long term models, SFAIK.
160K on Thursday May 12th, 2011 would be a whole lot of hard goods, though, n'est-ce-pas? So unless the global collapse comes around midnight tonight, he could've converted that worthless fiat currency into something tangible. (Even if that was another 5000 oz of silver. Oh, and as of right now, that's $170,000 as the morning market is about $33.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:24 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
What's the definition of hyper inflation?

For me it conjures up images of 1930's Germany and people firing up the stove with bank-notes.

It seems to me that there are many shades of inflation before we reach an extreme scenario like that.

Zimbabwe is mentioned a lot in this context.
Holy crap. If that is the level of mismanagement needed to bring about hyper-inflation, the US is far removed from it.....
Ummm.....no.

Because once the train gets into runaway mode, it's basically over.

You might look at the point in Weimer republic or Zimbabwe where that "runaway train first emerged", not the currency value at the end point when the train inevitably crashed. Secondly, you would look at the reasons why the runaway mode might or possibly could occur, and what signals in the economy one might could read to indicate such was occurring.

We are definitely seeing Bernanke, Geither, and Obaby as a couple of dogs chasing their own tails right now. Some of the signals that a runaway mode could be in place already, or that it could emerge, do exist.

On the positive side, it seems you have the Tea Party ("Taxed enough already") and a small to medium sized group of Republicans, who seem to recognize this and at least seem to want to stop it. "Stopping it" does not mean a return to the glory days of the dollar, it may mean a new stasis where the dollar is worth perhaps 40 cents of it's current value. Or perhaps 20 cents or 10 cents.

"Stopping it" means stopping the runaway inflation cycle, and retaining the public confidence which directly implies no hyperinflation. This will require extreme amounts of political will and most democracies when faced with this issue have failed.

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Old 12th May 2011, 07:39 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Michael, just how much silver are you hoarding? > 1,000 oz? > 10,000?

At 10,000 oz., you could've cashed out at $50, waited ten days and bought your 10k oz back at a $160,000 discount.
Its just SO easy to look back and see what one "could have done".

How about if he had cashed out at $50, and the price had surged to $500?

I only wish I could go back and buy and sell Apple or Microsoft at all the right times.

"Playing" or "timing" markets is difficult at best, and perhaps impossible in principle. Good luck to anyone trying to do that in commodities.

For those purchasing metals as a possible way to insure against inflation, these movements up and down are interesting at best, but insignificant in the long run.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:41 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Michael, just how much silver are you hoarding? > 1,000 oz? > 10,000?

I really find it difficult to believe that anyone with more market savvy than ideology would hold onto silver at whatever low price you bought in at just for the shininess. At 10,000 oz., you could've cashed out at $50, waited ten days and bought your 10k oz back at a $160,000 discount. Same amount of silver in the hole in your back yard and 160,000 bucks to buy tinned tuna, ammunition, and bottled water and enough left over to carpet the bunker.
I hold physical, so it's not as easy as dumping ETF holdings.

I have no intention of selling my silver. It is in rounds and junk coins. The next time I sell my silver it will be for food and shelter, not dollars.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:44 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
Its just SO easy to look back and see what one "could have done".

How about if he had cashed out at $50, and the price had surged to $500?

I only wish I could go back and buy and sell Apple or Microsoft at all the right times.

"Playing" or "timing" markets is difficult at best, and perhaps impossible in principle. Good luck to anyone trying to do that in commodities.

For those purchasing metals as a possible way to insure against inflation, these movements up and down are interesting at best, but insignificant in the long run.
Oh, I see. You're taking this hoary tale seriously. I'm not.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:49 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by michaelsuede View Post
I hold physical, so it's not as easy as dumping ETF holdings.

I have no intention of selling my silver. It is in rounds and junk coins. The next time I sell my silver it will be for food and shelter, not dollars.
But you could've made a bundle of fiat money which you could've converted to even more shiny metal. Why wouldn't you have taken advantage of the people who are trying to manipulate the market and beaten them at their own game.

And if you had any kind of real holding (by which I mean more than you can keep in your sock drawer), you could've made enough to buy "shelter", e.g. what most of us refer to as "a house". Or quite a lot of food. You'd rather stand on principle, and miss out on your desire to fill those two basic needs, or a chance to double your shiny metals holdings?

I don't think so, Michael.
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Last edited by Foolmewunz; 12th May 2011 at 07:50 AM. Reason: contrary to the old saying "less" is not "more"
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:55 AM   #353
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
160K on Thursday May 12th, 2011 would be a whole lot of hard goods, though, n'est-ce-pas? So unless the global collapse comes around midnight tonight, he could've converted that worthless fiat currency into something tangible. (Even if that was another 5000 oz of silver. Oh, and as of right now, that's $170,000 as the morning market is about $33.
Once again, you cannot make short term buy/sell decisions on long term economic models.

I own a stock now I could have made out like a bandit on if I had sold when it was at $22. Right now it is around 17 or so. But I had no idea that it would drop, or when, whether it will drop further, or go up. So, I hold, because I value it's assets more in the 50-60 range.

And, let's face it, Michael was predicting an imminent rise when it was at $50. You can't chastise him for not investing in the opposite direction of where he thought the market was heading.
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Old 12th May 2011, 07:55 AM   #354
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
But you could've made a bundle of fiat money which you could've converted to even more shiny metal. Why wouldn't you have taken advantage of the people who are trying to manipulate the market and beaten them at their own game.

And if you had any kind of real holding (by which I mean more than you can keep in your sock drawer), you could've made enough to buy "shelter", e.g. what most of us refer to as "a house". Or quite a lot of food. You'd rather stand on principle, and miss out on your desire to fill those two basic needs, or a chance to double your shiny metals holdings?

I don't think so, Michael.
Well if I had time traveling powers I probably would teleport back in time and sell my metal and do exactly what you said.

So thanks for pointing out what I could have done had I been in possession of a time machine.

I'd also buy lottery tickets.
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Old 12th May 2011, 08:17 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Michael, just how much silver are you hoarding? > 1,000 oz? > 10,000?

I really find it difficult to believe that anyone with more market savvy than ideology would hold onto silver at whatever low price you bought in at just for the shininess. At 10,000 oz., you could've cashed out at $50, waited ten days and bought your 10k oz back at a $160,000 discount. Same amount of silver in the hole in your back yard and 160,000 bucks to buy tinned tuna, ammunition, and bottled water and enough left over to carpet the bunker.
In other words, you find it hard to believe that silver investors might not be market timers, speculators, or weak hands. I have > 10,000oz of silver, and I haven't sold an ounce. I find it hard to believe you're a better investor than I am, despite your Monday morning quarterbacking. Could have, should have, would have.
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Old 12th May 2011, 08:55 AM   #356
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I know there are things written in this thread which I find hard to believe also.
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Old 12th May 2011, 02:22 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
In other words, you find it hard to believe that silver investors might not be market timers, speculators, or weak hands. I have > 10,000oz of silver, and I haven't sold an ounce. I find it hard to believe you're a better investor than I am, despite your Monday morning quarterbacking. Could have, should have, would have.
I didn't even consider selling at this supposed "peak".

Hardly paid any attention to it at all.

Yep, it was like the shadow of a fly passing overhead.
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Old 12th May 2011, 03:21 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
In other words, you find it hard to believe that silver investors might not be market timers, speculators, or weak hands. I have > 10,000oz of silver, and I haven't sold an ounce. I find it hard to believe you're a better investor than I am, despite your Monday morning quarterbacking. Could have, should have, would have.
Huh? I sold mine at 48, so I think I did okay.

Actually - I just gave it to my daughter. It was a remnant of the last silver bug fiasco... I bought a small fistful at 17 almost 30 years ago, and watched it drop to 11, so I left the 20 ounces sitting around in NYC as a reminder to not get caught up in such, again. When I was following this thread, I checked and they still had the little 1 oz bars, so I told her to go ahead and take 'em.

I hope you guys don't have to wait as long to take your losses. (The thousand bucks to her was a windfall to my daughter - she bought tickets to Helsinki to some event she wanted to attend but couldn't afford, right now. To me, it would've been a considerable loss - $340 in a money market account in '83 would've netted much more, by now.) Yeah, you may see 50 again in a week, sure. But you also may see 25 in a month and wait ten years to see 50 again. Good luck.
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Old 12th May 2011, 06:01 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Huh? I sold mine at 48, so I think I did okay.

Actually - I just gave it to my daughter. It was a remnant of the last silver bug fiasco... I bought a small fistful at 17 almost 30 years ago, and watched it drop to 11, so I left the 20 ounces sitting around in NYC as a reminder to not get caught up in such, again. When I was following this thread, I checked and they still had the little 1 oz bars, so I told her to go ahead and take 'em.

I hope you guys don't have to wait as long to take your losses. (The thousand bucks to her was a windfall to my daughter - she bought tickets to Helsinki to some event she wanted to attend but couldn't afford, right now. To me, it would've been a considerable loss - $340 in a money market account in '83 would've netted much more, by now.) Yeah, you may see 50 again in a week, sure. But you also may see 25 in a month and wait ten years to see 50 again. Good luck.
I've been in silver since 2000, with an average basis slightly over five bucks. I'm not waiting to see $50, I'm a long term investor. I'm sure the fundamentals in silver, and especially the US dollar are identical to 1980 when the Hunt brothers were newsworthy, right? I risk more than 20 ounces on a hand of blackjack in Vegas. I'm betting against the US dollar, I don't need luck.
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Old 12th May 2011, 06:28 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
I'm betting against the US dollar, I don't need luck.
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