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Old 9th January 2020, 12:59 PM   #81
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Iran mistakenly shot down Ukraine jet - US media

Quote:
Iran mistakenly shot down the Ukrainian plane that crashed on Wednesday near Tehran with 176 people on board, US media report.

US officials say they believe the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was hit by a missile, CBS says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:11 PM   #82
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadian officials have intelligence from their own sources and Canada's allies that shows Ukrainian International Airlines flight 752 was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-...68058eaed7d012
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:29 PM   #83
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Unconfirmed video of the shoot down. I don't know what I am seeing happening.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=u3CLB_1578595454
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:29 PM   #84
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CNN has reported that Iran has relented, Boeing will be present for the investigation. (That stupid "Auto scrolling update" page so I can't link directly to it)

Quote:
The head of the Iranian Investigating Committee of the Ukraine plane crash, Hassan Rezaeifar, said it has invited the United States “as the manufacturer of Boeing to be present” while the committee investigates the crash, according to the country's semi-official Fars News Agency.

Fars reported that “Boeing has named a representative without confirming their participation.”

CNN is reaching out to Boeing to see if Iran has contacted them and for any response. Representatives of Boeing would likely need permission from the US to travel to Iran because of existing sanctions
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:35 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadian officials have intelligence from their own sources and Canada's allies that shows Ukrainian International Airlines flight 752 was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.
Yeah, but it turns out their source was just Trudeau in brownface.
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:37 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Unconfirmed video of the shoot down. I don't know what I am seeing happening.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=u3CLB_1578595454
A guy with a cellphone is filming a nighttime event his phone isn't really able to capture.

If it really is footage of the plane being shot down, then it raises one very obvious question: How did this guy know to point his phone camera in that direction at that time?
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:38 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Maybe the Ayatollah is ultimately responsible, for challenging Dump on twitter.
Not direct enough. We could probably report this in percent of liability. The idiots on the ground: greater than 50%; Iran military has some responsibility for shoddy oversight of their soldiers; Iran government should have closed the airspace to civilian planes; and you can't discount Trump set things in motion and has some of the blame for the important reason, there doesn't appear to have been any reason for assassinating that general at this time except to take attention off Trump's Impeachment. IOW, the order was surely close to 100% Trump's personal desire, and nothing to do with any imminent attack or need to protect the US at that time.

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Old 9th January 2020, 01:40 PM   #88
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Canadian News (CBN) is reporting there are multiple sources of evidence including Canadian sources of evidence the plane was shot down.
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:43 PM   #89
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Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran https://nyti.ms/307EQF2
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:43 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
A guy with a cellphone is filming a nighttime event his phone isn't really able to capture.

If it really is footage of the plane being shot down, then it raises one very obvious question: How did this guy know to point his phone camera in that direction at that time?
A commercial jet in this area wouldn't attract any attention but a missile would. My guess would be that the brightness and trajectory of the missile would be something to attract the attention and begin filming. Also this may show nothing more than a missile with the plane either invisible or not anywhere in the frame.
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:45 PM   #91
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I don't see a burning or falling fireball in the video. That video might show a missile that missed the plane.
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Old 9th January 2020, 01:54 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
CNN has reported that Iran has relented, Boeing will be present for the investigation. (That stupid "Auto scrolling update" page so I can't link directly to it)
If it's the same as The Guardian rolling updates the timestamps themselves are links, so you/we can get straight to the place of interest.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:02 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
A guy with a cellphone is filming a nighttime event his phone isn't really able to capture.

If it really is footage of the plane being shot down, then it raises one very obvious question: How did this guy know to point his phone camera in that direction at that time?

(((Global))) conspiracy? The loud explosion approx. 12 sec. after initial hit is very haunting.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:10 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I don't see a burning or falling fireball in the video. That video might show a missile that missed the plane.
SAM missiles generally don't directly hit their target, but explode when they are close enough, causing an explosion that damages the aircraft with a combination of pressure and metal fragments. That means aircraft often do not instantly explode into huge fireballs, like in some movies.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:26 PM   #95
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Speaking to the UN, Iran called it an "incident" instead of an "accident."

Usually minor linguistic variations like that are nothingburgers, but in diplomacy terminology is very important.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:28 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I don't see a burning or falling fireball in the video. That video might show a missile that missed the plane.
I think we do, though. The phone isn't good enough to capture the plane's navigation lights prior to the missile explosion; but after the explosion, it is suddenly brightly lit. That must be flame.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:28 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
(((Global))) conspiracy? The loud explosion approx. 12 sec. after initial hit is very haunting.
Is that anti-semitic code?

I watch most videos with sound off.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:32 PM   #98
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There is an approximately 10-and-a-half second delay between the visible flash of the explosion and the sound of the explosion.

Some quick head-math puts the camera a bit over two miles from the missile explosion.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:41 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post
I think we do, though. The phone isn't good enough to capture the plane's navigation lights prior to the missile explosion; but after the explosion, it is suddenly brightly lit. That must be flame.
That sounds reasonable. The plane is instantly on fire after the explosion. It's travelling on a different path than the missile was on.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:43 PM   #100
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Quote:
Iranian officials on Thursday rejected the western intelligence assessments. “Scientifically, it is impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane, and such rumours are illogical,” Ali Abedzadeh, the head of Iran’s of Civil Aviation Organisation told a state-run media outlet.

...

Iranian investigators had said earlier on Thursday their preliminary conclusion was that the plane had suffered a catastrophic technical problem, caught on fire and crashed as it tried to return to Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International airport.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...icials-believe

It mysteriously burst into flames and then crashed. That's it. Case closed people, move along.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:46 PM   #101
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"Scientifically, it is impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane, and such rumours are illogical"

Pretty damn close to...

"Scientifically, it is impossible that a jet brought down a skyscraper, and such rumours are illogical"
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:51 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
You couldn’t be more wrong. I think you meant to type Greeks’.
Not if he was blaming Leonidas specifically.
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Old 9th January 2020, 02:53 PM   #103
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Quote:
The SA-15 launch was detected by the American military’s Space-Based Infrared System, which relies on satellites in various orbits to track the launch and flight path of ballistic missiles. While American missile defense sensors are primarily meant to defend against long-range launches, the military has upgraded the infrared satellite network to track shorter-range ballistic missile launches as well. They also can often detect launches of air defense systems, including missile systems designed to work at low altitudes, officials have said.

The infrared system also detected the antiaircraft missile fired by Russian-supported separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine in 2014 that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, officials said at the time. All 298 people aboard were killed.

The satellite data is often combined with other sources of information. For example, American intelligence can also often detect when air defense radar are turned on or activated, giving clues to what systems have been used.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/w...h-ukraine.html

Proofs?! Proofs?! Lies!!! Iran strong!1!
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Old 9th January 2020, 03:32 PM   #104
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I suspect people in the Iranian Air Defense COmmand are going to lose their heads...maybe literally.
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Old 9th January 2020, 03:38 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
And were publicly crucified for it. Also, shooting down a passenger plane which had just taken off from your own airport, and then attempting to cover it up, is another level.
It's that the plane took off from your own airport that takes it to antoher level of incompetence.

What the hell kind of tracking systemdto they have? And wouldn't the air defense command be notified of all takeoffs as SOP just to avoid this kind of "incident"?

No doubt, a list of scapegoats is being aseembled now.
\
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Old 9th January 2020, 03:42 PM   #106
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I think “mechanical/engine failure” was a Hail Mary pass. They shot it down and there’s not much hope concealing it.
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Old 9th January 2020, 03:49 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I think “mechanical/engine failure” was a Hail Mary pass. They shot it down and there’s not much hope concealing it.
US: Keep pissing us off and we're going to shoot a missile at an airport.

IRAN: Hold my beer and watch this.
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Old 9th January 2020, 03:52 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It's that the plane took off from your own airport that takes it to antoher level of incompetence.

What the hell kind of tracking systemdto they have? And wouldn't the air defense command be notified of all takeoffs as SOP just to avoid this kind of "incident"?

No doubt, a list of scapegoats is being aseembled now.
\
They might have been on high alert and looking to even the score for the General's demise by successfully shooting down another USA stealth drone.
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Old 9th January 2020, 04:06 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I think “mechanical/engine failure” was a Hail Mary pass. They shot it down and there’s not much hope concealing it.
They pretty much came out said it was a mechanical issue even before the wreckage had stopped burning. There's no way they could have known that since they had lost all contact with the plane.

Here's another bad denial from the Iranians:

Quote:
Hassan Rezaeifar, the head of the committee that oversees aviation accidents in Iran, told the state-run Islamic Republic news agency that a special meeting had been called to consider the possibility the plane was shot down, but dismissed it.

“As the pilot of the Ukrainian plane was trying to get back to the airport, the scenario of a missile attack … is off the table,” he said. “This has been discussed in a special session and went off the table.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...icials-believe

Just being hit by a SAM missile would not by any means necessarily prevent the pilots from trying to turn back and try to land at the airport. It could have done that, but it's not absolutely guaranteed that the aircraft would lose all control.

Moreover, as the Guardian points out in another article:

Quote:
It is an assessment, however, that starkly contradicts Iran’s own preliminary investigative report, which was released Thursday. That claimed the aircraft was trying to turn back for the airport when it went down, a claim greeted with some scepticism due to the lack of communications with the jet making it impossible to judge whether the air crew were actively piloting the plane or whether it simply swung off course as it plunged towards the ground.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ggests-missile

Apparently the Iranian's have already determined that they were trying to turn back, again despite the total lack of communications with the airplane. It's obvious they have constructed a narrative without even pretending to have done any investigation. You don't need a blackbox to have proof that it was shot down, but there's obviously no way they can determine what happened in the cockpit without it.
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Old 9th January 2020, 04:10 PM   #110
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They are making it far worse for themselves by not owning up to their mistake and not opening up the investigation to Boeing and other parties. I think this tragic accident will mean it is less likely any more hostilities will continue.
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Old 9th January 2020, 04:53 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
If it really is footage of the plane being shot down, then it raises one very obvious question: How did this guy know to point his phone camera in that direction at that time?
The latest claim, made by "sources familiar with the intelligence", is that two missiles were fired at the jet.

If that's true, and if the missiles were not fired simultaneously, it might have been the case that Phone Guy heard the first missile launch - or explosion - and this is what made him pull out his phone and start recording that area of the sky, in time to catch the second missile in flight.

The [targeted object] isn't burning until the missile in the video explodes, suggesting that the first missile possibly either missed or caused minimal damage.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:04 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
They might have been on high alert and looking to even the score for the General's demise by successfully shooting down another USA stealth drone.
No doubt, but the point is any halfway intelligent air defense system could tell the difference between a drone and an airliner, not to mention they should have KNOWN it was airliner by being notified of it's being tracked from take off from an Iranian airport.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:06 PM   #113
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It's the the plane took off from an major Iranian airport that gets to me. Either the Iranian Air Defense Force or the Iranian equivalent of the FAA ..or both...made a gigantic FUBAR here.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:16 PM   #114
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The Iranian Military is just as guilty as Amber Guyger. Now be punished for your accident.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:22 PM   #115
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It's an international airport. There must have been lots of outbound flights. Why did they decide to pull the trigger on just this one? Why not shoot down several of them simultaneously? Weird accident.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:29 PM   #116
trustbutverify
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Not direct enough. We could probably report this in percent of liability. The idiots on the ground: greater than 50%; Iran military has some responsibility for shoddy oversight of their soldiers; Iran government should have closed the airspace to civilian planes; and you can't discount Trump set things in motion and has some of the blame for the important reason, there doesn't appear to have been any reason for assassinating that general at this time except to take attention off Trump's Impeachment. IOW, the order was surely close to 100% Trump's personal desire, and nothing to do with any imminent attack or need to protect the US at that time.

If you report a false alarm of a fire and someone is killed in traffic on the way there, you're responsible. If you report an actual fire and someone is killed in traffic on the way there, you're not responsible.
I agree Lump shares responsibility. Just think Iranian commanders/shooters/liars are apprx 99.127% responsible. Hopefully, none of them are Jewish.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:32 PM   #117
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Just spoke to my Father, who is retired FAA, and he has problem understand how in a halfway competent Air Traffic Control system this could happen with an airplane taking off from one of your major airports. If it had been flying in over the border it would be a bit more understandable, but your own freaking airport....
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:33 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
I agree Lump shares responsibility. Just think Iranian commanders/shooters/liars are apprx 99.127% responsible. Hopefully, none of them are Jewish.
Or Iran has some really,reallly, crappy Radar/Air Control System Equipment.
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:42 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...icials-believe

It mysteriously burst into flames and then crashed. That's it. Case closed people, move along.
Scientist-science or Bro-science?
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Old 9th January 2020, 05:45 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The Iranian Military is just as guilty as Amber Guyger. Now be punished for your accident.
I got a feeling the Iranian equivalent of the FAA needs to take a share of the blame, also.
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