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Old 28th September 2014, 09:32 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
All right then. Show me an exchange where I can cash out 10,000 BTC in 24 hours. If you can, I will withdraw my assertion.
So now you are trying to equate limits on the size of withdrawals with "adventures people have had in trying to get their money out of exchanges".

Are there any straws left for you to grasp at?

Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
And it sure looks like BTC gambling is a booming business, still.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Gambling
... Annnnnd ..... back to uncritical thinking mode! No matter how many gambling sites are on that list, it is meaningless without the bitcoin deposit rates for each site.

That said, there are not too many other ways that you could spend a currency/non-currency that was designed for hoarding. The deflationary nature of bitcoin and the use of transaction fees are both aspects of its design that discourage spending.
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Old 28th September 2014, 11:21 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So now you are trying to equate limits on the size of withdrawals with "adventures people have had in trying to get their money out of exchanges".

Are there any straws left for you to grasp at?
So, as I suspected, you can't. The point of my question was to show how thinly capitalized BTC is, despite the claims of "$6 billion market cap" and so on. Even at the current price, it's still a bubble.

ETA: $378 now. A leaking bubble, at that.

Quote:
... Annnnnd ..... back to uncritical thinking mode! No matter how many gambling sites are on that list, it is meaningless without the bitcoin deposit rates for each site.

That said, there are not too many other ways that you could spend a currency/non-currency that was designed for hoarding. The deflationary nature of bitcoin and the use of transaction fees are both aspects of its design that discourage spending.
So why on earth would anyone "invest" in something that has lost two-thirds of its value in six months, can't be redeemed readily, and can't even be spent readily?

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Old 29th September 2014, 01:33 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
The point of my question was..................
.............. to dodge my rebuttals to your arguments.

Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
So why on earth would anyone "invest" in something that has lost two-thirds of its value in six months, can't be redeemed readily, and can't even be spent readily?
You could have said the same thing in November 2011.
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Old 29th September 2014, 04:19 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
.............. to dodge my rebuttals to your arguments.

You could have said the same thing in November 2011.
But you haven't rebutted my argument, which is that BTC is thinly capitalized and the so-called "$6 billion" in value is an illusion since the actual amount of cash in the BTC system is far less.
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Old 29th September 2014, 05:35 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
But you haven't rebutted my argument, which is that BTC is thinly capitalized and the so-called "$6 billion" in value is an illusion since the actual amount of cash in the BTC system is far less.
That wasn't your argument . You argued that "gambling represents almost half of all BTC transactions" and that "ALL bitcoin exchanges have difficulty cashing out withdrawals".

The argument you switched to is also a non-sequitur because it tries to imply that the only reason that bitcoin exchanges can't process unlimited cash withdrawals is that they are bankrupt. The real reasons were explored ad-nauseum in the other thread.

You are just trying to recycle old discredited arguments to a new audience.
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Old 29th September 2014, 06:48 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That wasn't your argument . You argued that "gambling represents almost half of all BTC transactions" and that "ALL bitcoin exchanges have difficulty cashing out withdrawals".

The argument you switched to is also a non-sequitur because it tries to imply that the only reason that bitcoin exchanges can't process unlimited cash withdrawals is that they are bankrupt. The real reasons were explored ad-nauseum in the other thread.

You are just trying to recycle old discredited arguments to a new audience.
You admitted yourself that there's little else you can do with Bitcoin besides gamble. And I never said that the exchanges were bankrupt; I said they are thinly capitalized. They might be able to cash out a small holder, say 10 or 20 BTC, fairly readily; they might be able to cash out someone holding a thousand BTC given a couple of days; but Tippit's friend with the 35,000 BTC could wait until the Rapture and never see his $14 million $13.1 million (at current prices).
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Old 29th September 2014, 07:19 AM   #127
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Hovering around $380.

http://preev.com/
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Old 29th September 2014, 07:33 AM   #128
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According to Mhaze, a conservative estimate has the value of a BTC at 5000 USD by the end of the year !
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Old 29th September 2014, 07:34 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You are just trying to recycle old discredited arguments to a new audience.
What new audience ? We're the same posters, minus a few, that were there at the beginning, on the same forum. The switch to a new server doesn't count.
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Old 29th September 2014, 08:13 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
Hovering around $380.

http://preev.com/
Looking at the market-depth charts on the bitstamp exchange, it's probably not going to go under $375 for a while, there's a lot of standing bids at that price.

Ha... I just noticed that someone's got a bid for 0.02 bitcoins set at $357.48. I wonder what they were thinking? "I want exactly two cents of bitcoin, but I've only got $7.15 to spare"?


Looking at the price history, I see that this time last year bitcoin was selling for around $130, so long-term holders are still going good. (But I suppose that's no consolation for people who bought at over $1000 in late November.)
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Old 29th September 2014, 08:56 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
You admitted yourself that there's little else you can do with Bitcoin besides gamble.
If you were honest you would acknowledge that I have long stated precisely what bitcoin is good for - hoarding. (I even repeated that a few posts ago).

It is a store of value. It is easy to store, portable and can readily be transferred over long distances (while ignoring international boundaries too). The cash value may fluctuate wildly over the short and even the long term but the latent value is still there.

Maybe none of that matters much as long as faith in national currencies hold. However, as events in Cyprus showed, even a slight case of the jitters is enough to send demand for bitcoin soaring and that is when bitcoin holders will come into their own.
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Old 29th September 2014, 09:08 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
If you were honest you would acknowledge that I have long stated precisely what bitcoin is good for - hoarding. (I even repeated that a few posts ago).
Given that the value has gone from $500 to $380 in just a couple of weeks, I'd suggest it's not even good for that.
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Old 29th September 2014, 09:59 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
Given that the value has gone from $500 to $380 in just a couple of weeks, I'd suggest it's not even good for that.
There were three paragraphs in the post that you quoted - not one.
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Old 29th September 2014, 11:20 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It is a store of value. It is easy to store, portable and can readily be transferred over long distances (while ignoring international boundaries too). The cash value may fluctuate wildly over the short and even the long term but the latent value is still there.

That's rather vague. How exactly are you defining (or can calculate) bitcoin's "latent value"? And if you can't, how can you state it's "there"?

Last edited by AdMan; 29th September 2014 at 11:25 PM.
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Old 29th September 2014, 11:55 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by AdMan View Post
That's rather vague. How exactly are you defining (or can calculate) bitcoin's "latent value"? And if you can't, how can you state it's "there"?
See paragraph 3 of the post you quoted.
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Old 29th September 2014, 11:59 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
See paragraph 3 of the post you quoted.

That doesn't help, to be honest. Faith--or lack of it--in national currencies tells me nothing about the "latent value" of Bitcoin, which is what I was asking about.
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Old 30th September 2014, 02:31 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by AdMan View Post
That doesn't help, to be honest. Faith--or lack of it--in national currencies tells me nothing about the "latent value" of Bitcoin, which is what I was asking about.
I don't know how I could dumb it down any further.

If faith in a national currency wavers then the demand (price) for bitcoin will increase. That is its latent value.
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Old 30th September 2014, 09:34 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I don't know how I could dumb it down any further.

If faith in a national currency wavers then the demand (price) for bitcoin will increase. That is its latent value.
I don't see how that follows at all. If faith in the baht, for example, falters, why would anyone go to something that is even less stable and backed by even less than the full faith and credit of some tottering government?
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Old 30th September 2014, 11:32 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I don't see how that follows at all. If faith in the baht, for example, falters, why would anyone go to something that is even less stable and backed by even less than the full faith and credit of some tottering government?
That actually happened to the Swiss Dinars vis-a-vis the Saddam dinars in Iraq after the 1990 Gulf War, despite the Swiss dinars explicitly being revoked legal tender status by the government. In fact, they even appreciated against the U.S. dollar at some point.

However, I don't think that example is analogous to Bitcoin vs. USD.
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Old 1st October 2014, 09:11 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula View Post
That actually happened to the Swiss Dinars vis-a-vis the Saddam dinars in Iraq after the 1990 Gulf War, despite the Swiss dinars explicitly being revoked legal tender status by the government. In fact, they even appreciated against the U.S. dollar at some point.

However, I don't think that example is analogous to Bitcoin vs. USD.
Not really, no, though it is an interesting case.
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Old 1st October 2014, 09:11 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I don't see how that follows at all. If faith in the baht, for example, falters, why would anyone go to something that is even less stable and backed by even less than the full faith and credit of some tottering government?
Bueller?
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Old 1st October 2014, 11:16 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I don't see how that follows at all. If faith in the baht, for example, falters, why would anyone go to something that is even less stable and backed by even less than the full faith and credit of some tottering government?
I don't know about third world currencies but that is exactly what happened in Europe in the wake of problems with Cyprus and the PIIGS.
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Old 1st October 2014, 11:28 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I don't know about third world currencies but that is exactly what happened in Europe in the wake of problems with Cyprus and the PIIGS.
I trust you have evidence for this assertion?
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Old 1st October 2014, 11:44 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I trust you have evidence for this assertion?
Go back through the old thread. You will find plenty of references to bitcoin prices during the period in question.
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Old 1st October 2014, 12:49 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Go back through the old thread. You will find plenty of references to bitcoin prices during the period in question.
That isn't what I asked for. I asked for evidence for your assertion that money fled from unstable currencies (although it's not clear which currencies, euros maybe?) to Bitcoin during the period in question.
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Old 1st October 2014, 07:01 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
That isn't what I asked for. I asked for evidence for your assertion that money fled from unstable currencies (although it's not clear which currencies, euros maybe?) to Bitcoin during the period in question.
I don't know if you think that is somehow different to saying, "If faith in a national currency wavers then the demand (price) for bitcoin will increase" (in which case you have constructed a strawman argument) or if you are denying that there were meteoric price rises during the Cyprus crisis.
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Old 2nd October 2014, 02:26 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
That isn't what I asked for. I asked for evidence for your assertion that money fled from unstable currencies (although it's not clear which currencies, euros maybe?) to Bitcoin during the period in question.
You've got a short memory:
http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...-high-currency

Now, it could be coincidence, or a reaction by those other than Cypriots (it's thought to have involved Russians as well as those in the PIGS states, not just Cypriots), but it seems fairly clear the Cypriot crisis is reflected in the Bitcoin price.
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Old 2nd October 2014, 04:55 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
You've got a short memory:
http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...-high-currency

Now, it could be coincidence, or a reaction by those other than Cypriots (it's thought to have involved Russians as well as those in the PIGS states, not just Cypriots), but it seems fairly clear the Cypriot crisis is reflected in the Bitcoin price.
The dynamics there was not necessarily about faltering faith in the currency itself, the euro, but in the scare that you're in for a haircut – i.e., a faltering faith in domestic financial institutions. Those who could, moved their deposits via TARGET2 to other banks within the EMU. Some chose Bitcoin. Bitcoin need not have been their first alternative.
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Old 2nd October 2014, 05:44 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
You've got a short memory:
http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...-high-currency

Now, it could be coincidence, or a reaction by those other than Cypriots (it's thought to have involved Russians as well as those in the PIGS states, not just Cypriots), but it seems fairly clear the Cypriot crisis is reflected in the Bitcoin price.
I can certainly see why the Russian Mafia might not want to move their money from Cypriot banks to other banks within the EU. To those types, Bitcoin da, rubles nyet.
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Old 2nd October 2014, 09:36 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by lupus_in_fabula View Post
The dynamics there was not necessarily about faltering faith in the currency itself, the euro, but in the scare that you're in for a haircut i.e., a faltering faith in domestic financial institutions. Those who could, moved their deposits via TARGET2 to other banks within the EMU. Some chose Bitcoin. Bitcoin need not have been their first alternative.
International confidence in the Euro doesn't seem to have wavered too much during the crisis. There was a small drop in the value of the Euro during the early part of 2013 but it wasn't great. http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=USD&view=2Y

However, local confidence is a different matter. If you need to use financial institutions (that you have lost confidence in) to use the Euro then it is probably hair-splitting to distinguish between loss of confidence in the financial institution or the currency itself.

Bitcoin need not be the first alternative but it only takes a small percentage of the population to turn to it in times of crisis to have a significant effect on its price.
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Old 3rd October 2014, 12:46 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I can certainly see why the Russian Mafia might not want to move their money from Cypriot banks to other banks within the EU. To those types, Bitcoin da, rubles nyet.
Yes.
It was well known that Cyprus was a banking destination of choice for some less than savory elements of Russian society.
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Old 3rd October 2014, 10:11 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Yes.
It was well known that Cyprus was a banking destination of choice for some less than savory elements of Russian society.
I think that the developers of Bitcoin saw it as kind of a digital "Swiss bank account", to replace the actual Swiss bank accounts which got legislated out of existence. It might still become something like that, although if sufficient demand exists I suspect some entity in, say, the Cayman Islands might develop a BTC clone denominated in USD.
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Old 3rd October 2014, 10:17 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
I think that the developers of Bitcoin saw it as kind of a digital "Swiss bank account", to replace the actual Swiss bank accounts which got legislated out of existence. It might still become something like that, although if sufficient demand exists I suspect some entity in, say, the Cayman Islands might develop a BTC clone denominated in USD.
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Old 3rd October 2014, 10:18 AM   #154
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$364 now.
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Old 3rd October 2014, 10:30 AM   #155
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Let's think this through, shall we?

I'm a, shall we say, less than honorable character. I have $1 million that I need to stash somewhere safely. A guy in a floppy hat at Los Banco de No Preguntas in the Cayman Islands offers to store it for me in his spanking-new USD-denominated BTC clone. It's secure, and I can go get my million any time I need to make a, ahem, purchase.

Another guy offers me $1 million in BTC. It's kinda secure, assuming I don't lose the thumb drive it's stored on or the exchange I use isn't hacked. I can use it to make purchases, assuming the other party wants BTC and not that filthy USD. If not, I have to go someplace and try and sell my BTC for $1 million; maybe I'll get my million (in a few weeks or so), maybe I'll get $600K and some dodgy Starbucks cards.

Which would you use?
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Old 3rd October 2014, 04:13 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by jhunter1163 View Post
A guy in a floppy hat at Los Banco de No Preguntas in the Cayman Islands offers to store it for me in his spanking-new USD-denominated BTC clone.
Why would anybody prefer counterfeit USD?
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Old 3rd October 2014, 04:56 PM   #157
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357.9 now. A bit of a drop, recently.
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Old 4th October 2014, 11:24 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
357.9 now. A bit of a drop, recently.
$333.4 now. Too bad wrs blew out of the thread. Maybe it'll get to $150 after all.
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Old 5th October 2014, 05:54 AM   #159
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311 and dropping. I wonder what happened this time to trigger this.
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Old 5th October 2014, 09:26 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
311 and dropping. I wonder what happened this time to trigger this.
There doesn't appear to be any clear trigger but a Forbes Magazine article makes a couple of interesting (though not necessarily definitive) points:

One is the ".........old adage that people tend to overestimate the possibility of technology in the short run but wildly underestimate it in the long run" and the other is that the more businesses that accept bitcoin as payment, the more businesses that want to to cash out those bitcoins (putting downward pressure on the bitcoin price).
Quote:
In 2014, Bitcoin has become much more real. It’s usable at Dell and Overstock and 30,000+ other merchants. PayPal is cozying up to Bitcoin and will eventually make it a form of payment for the many online merchants that use its Braintree platform. That there are finally places to use Bitcoin is part of the reason the price may be declining. When the currency was entirely in the hands of speculators who had nothing much to do other than hold it, the market was somewhat static. Now, as Bitcoin is spent, merchants tend to convert it back to dollars rather quickly. That puts more Bitcoin out there, which tends to depress its value — at least in the short run.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogo...e-victory-lap/
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