ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Economics, Business and Finance
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 7th December 2015, 06:01 AM   #1
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Technical Analysis II

Mod InfoThis is a continuation thread from here.
Posted By:kmortis


Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I will wipe the floor with unobtainium (I hope it's a reasonably inexpensive cleaning product) but I am having computer issues. I would like to short light sweet crude at 39.17 right now...

ETA buy stop loss 43.50, no profit target but will advise when the moment arrives.
ha. if you can beat the Skeptica base fund you'll be annihilating a buy and hold on the S&P from 01 Jan 2015, (edit and just beat 01 Jan 2014 @ 1834, currently too lulz) that would be a good start. I suggest you set realistic goals to start, to avoid disappointment, there is after all only less than one month left until Year End Reporting



So as we have had a change of ownership of one fund following a reluctant client redemption, and the fund has a healthy profit buffer in place now, and could survive nearly 3xDDmax (3 x the maximum running drawdown thus far, booked out as an actual loss) and still be at around 100%, at the beginning of month 2 the internal leverage has been increased across the board by +62.5% to start to speed things up a bit.

[Censored] the bearded one is also ecstatic with his way above chance Month 1 performance and said we could have won the $Million anyway with this performance a couple of years back, but he's definitely interested in a Forbes membership one day if possible (quickly please he doesnt have 35 years to wait) and so his internal leverage has now been wound up by +80 to +100%

in both cases these funds have now changed their nature from the smooth defensive "safe start" Skeptica approach with limited running drawdowns, into much more aggressive funds by nature. this will be reflected moving forwards as higher running drawdowns than the Skeptica Funds.

The fast cumulative nature of the compounding growth now means each trade on each account is taken as 1 + X% of the increased balance, so a +20% account size means each trade is 1.2 x original trade lot size, on a per trade basis.. ie an increase from +20.00% to 21.00% means the system next takes 1.21 lots, instead of 1.2. usefully, it obviously also decreases lot size automatically (at my end, I cant speak for each individual system's behaviour) as an account reduces size too.

hence the balance will start to go exponential extremely quickly IF the continuing trade feed continues to perform at above chance levels, to apply continuous upwards pressure.

with the considerably increased leverage on these 2 accounts now too, if we continue going upwards I would expect them both to outperform and catch all the Skeptica funds fairly quickly moving forwards. *Mr $Million* is now running at Stock Slayer leverage settings, but just with the original 4 Skeptica traders only.

of course the change brings a risk that increasing the leverage (greed) at the same time as the system runs into a thus-far uncharacteristic series of bad losses, and the higher leverage destroys faster than the gains were built. happily however this fund is a pair trade pitted against (and funded by) an Apple Short sale at $120 which is not looking like new all time highs any time soon either.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kmortis; 7th December 2015 at 09:59 AM. Reason: since 2014 too..
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th December 2015, 07:46 AM   #2
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
the bearded million account operated on the stock slayer settings and traders, simulated performance with live (real money trading) back data, since Sept 2013.



so just how confident is everybody that this can / will not continue as a net winner for another year or two? and if so, given that it can easily produce good average annual returns in a month, might that not be a useful enough length of time anyway?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kevsta; 7th December 2015 at 07:47 AM.
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th December 2015, 09:53 AM   #3
kmortis
Biomechanoid
Director of IDIOCY (Region 13)
Deputy Admin
 
kmortis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: New Texas (aka Southern Tier)
Posts: 29,733
Mod WarningThere is a fair bit of incivility in this thread. If this does not have a market correction, then the Fed will have to take steps to curtail the activity.

Capise?
Posted By:kmortis
__________________
-Aberhaten did it
- "Which gives us an answer to our question. What’s the worst thing that can happen in a pressure cooker?" Randall Munroe
-Director of Independent Determining Inquisitor Of Crazy Yapping
- Aberhaten's Apothegm™ - An Internet law that states that optimism is indistinguishable from sarcasm
kmortis is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th December 2015, 12:40 PM   #4
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th December 2015, 01:02 PM   #5
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
I am awake while oil futures trade at a seven year low, 37.55, so I recommend taking profit here for $1.62. (sold at 39.17 in part one, post number four thousand one hundred and sixty four). The live fund sold A200 cfds at 5158.24 and took profit at 5136.64. This represents a 9.8% increase in the fund balance.

Last edited by Samson; 7th December 2015 at 01:08 PM.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 05:23 AM   #6
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am awake while oil futures trade at a seven year low, 37.55, so I recommend taking profit here for $1.62. (sold at 39.17 in part one, post number four thousand one hundred and sixty four). The live fund sold A200 cfds at 5158.24 and took profit at 5136.64. This represents a 9.8% increase in the fund balance.
which live fund?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 07:13 AM   #7
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
which live fund?
www.pretendmoney.com
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 09:30 AM   #8
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
which live fund?
The new live fund that was established to compete with your unobtainium. The trades log will follow.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 09:37 AM   #9
Giordano
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 13,104
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The new live fund that was established to compete with your unobtainium. The trades log will follow.
As you wish.

I was just peeking to see what you might say on your return. Carry on. You might wish to follow keysta's example of use of interesting color and graphics.
Giordano is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 09:50 AM   #10
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
As you wish.

I was just peeking to see what you might say on your return. Carry on. You might wish to follow keysta's example of use of interesting color and graphics.
They are always ignored unfortunately, but if you refer to thread one there are scores of pictures.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 10:14 AM   #11
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
They are always ignored unfortunately, but if you refer to thread one there are scores of pictures.
erm.. not to answer for anybody else but he said interesting ones

..and there are Forex trade signal suppliers in there:

a) shorting (Aus200 CFDs?) and..
b) at 10% win size for 20 odd points ?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 02:41 PM   #12
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
erm.. not to answer for anybody else but he said interesting ones

..and there are Forex trade signal suppliers in there:

a) shorting (Aus200 CFDs?) and..
b) at 10% win size for 20 odd points ?
I used 55% of available margin, thus highly leveraged in the traditional sense. For example I just took 36.7 points profit on dow cfds, and this generated an increase of 4.6% in the cash balance. At present I am unable to post pictures as the trading laptop will not open an internet browser.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 05:08 PM   #13
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I used 55% of available margin, thus highly leveraged in the traditional sense. For example I just took 36.7 points profit on dow cfds, and this generated an increase of 4.6% in the cash balance. At present I am unable to post pictures as the trading laptop will not open an internet browser.
That's what I would have done too.

Except for the not posting pictures part.
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 05:27 PM   #14
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I used 55% of available margin, thus highly leveraged in the traditional sense. For example I just took 36.7 points profit on dow cfds, and this generated an increase of 4.6% in the cash balance. At present I am unable to post pictures as the trading laptop will not open an internet browser.
so this is not an autotrade account, its a broker demo account you are trading manually? don't worry about images, just register it on myfxbook and give us the account analytics link
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2015, 06:16 PM   #15
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
so this is not an autotrade account, its a broker demo account you are trading manually? don't worry about images, just register it on myfxbook and give us the account analytics link
No it is traditional money that I earned or stole. The trade logs are in the cloud and cannot be edited. I am manually entering each trade in the same way anyone can, A little down the track I will post them to this thread immediately after, so any member or lurker can trade them. Of course they could have done so in Part one and made 34% in 24 weeks.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:32 AM   #16
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
so another big day for Skeptica yesterday, the weekend drawdowns once again recovered themselves and pushed up again on Monday, and yesterday afternoon passed some fairly big landmarks.

+20% Total (weighted) fund gain, and a double S&P out-performance, Skeptica (base) out-ran it since 01 Jan 2014 and SkepticaGrowth outperformed it since Jan 2013.





along with UnObtainium also passing 20% total fund gain, and in fact, passing Skeptica (total weighted gain) already.

with any luck Stock-Slayer should replicate the entire run from 666 to 2125 (+210%) in 3 months or so..

__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 04:20 AM   #17
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
We sold dow 30 cfds at 17590.2, based on the algorithm that views price history alone. Current market price is 17553.2. Should we take profit or wait for Armageddon? Statistical theory says take profit, yet, as Don describes it, there will probably be an inelegant dismount instead.

Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 04:49 AM   #18
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
We sold dow 30 cfds at 17590.2, based on the algorithm that views price history alone. Current market price is 17553.2. Should we take profit or wait for Armageddon? Statistical theory says take profit, yet, as Don describes it, there will probably be an inelegant dismount instead.

I'm lightly short the S&P (live account) from 2070 yesterday. worth a pop, as the market only has one week left to "turmoil" to try and dissuade the Money-Granny from raising rates next week.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 05:01 AM   #19
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
lol. all these Muppet Hedge funds trying to take macro bets instead of just trading the red and blue game, no clue..

Biggest Hedge Fund Casualties since Draghi Disappointed last week..

Quote:
Considering that virtually every macro hedge fund had fallen to Draghi's hypnotic spell that the EUR was going lower, further abetted by Goldman's confident call that the EURUSD would see a 300 pip move lower on Thursday, it is safe to say that everyone was on the same side of the boat.

CFYC Commitment of Traders data confirm this, showing that bets by hedge funds on the euro falling outnumbered bets on the euro rising by 4.7 to 1 as of Nov. 24. Which explains the violent, almost unprecedented market response to the ECB's disappointing announcement.

"Everyone and their mother were short the euro," one London-based hedge-fund investor told the WSJ.

And, as the WSJ adds betting on a weaker euro and a stronger dollar has been one of the most popular positions for macro hedge funds, if only until Thursday when things... changed.
Quote:
Hedge-fund investors say the lion’s share of major macro funds had bet against the euro ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, when President Mario Draghi underwhelmed markets with news of a cut in the deposit rate to minus 0.3% and a six-month extension of its bond-buying program.

“I think it’s been painful for a lot of people,” said Michele Gesualdi, chief investment officer of Kairos Partners in London, which oversees €8 billion ($8.7 billion) in assets and invests in hedge funds. “Pretty much everyone was short the euro. The view was very clear for everyone.”
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 05:07 AM   #20
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I'm lightly short the S&P (live account) from 2070 yesterday. worth a pop, as the market only has one week left to "turmoil" to try and dissuade the Money-Granny from raising rates next week.
Turmoil as a verb. I quite like it. You can abandon the quote marks when it makes shorter oxford. Interestingly American stocks have been turmoiling for 12 months. This usually means a serious drop. Japanese stocks have been turmoiling for 25 years, and english stocks for 18 years. American stocks turmoiled from 1960 to 1982. Of course dividends are paid during these times.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 08:53 AM   #21
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
We sold dow 30 cfds at 17590.2, based on the algorithm that views price history alone. Current market price is 17553.2. Should we take profit or wait for Armageddon? Statistical theory says take profit, yet, as Don describes it, there will probably be an inelegant dismount instead.

I would do whatever your algorithm tells you to do.
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:03 PM   #22
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
I would do whatever your algorithm tells you to do.
As it happens the trade went 100 points in the money but whipped around and I broke even.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:05 PM   #23
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
As it happens the trade went 100 points in the money but whipped around and I broke even.
Sounds like your algorithm needs work, no?
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:27 PM   #24
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Sounds like your algorithm needs work, no?
The algorithm tells me when to enter, not exit. Exiting can be a mechanical process, fixed time, fixed distance, or a combination of these with multiple contracts. It is impossible to lose in the long term with a good entry algorithm. I might even suggest the 24 week exercise was heading to that conclusion. The problem with exiting by algorithm is that most or all of the profit can be foregone, because it is designed to follow rather than anticipate a turning point. .
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:38 PM   #25
Maurice Ledifficile
Lost in translation
 
Maurice Ledifficile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,964
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The algorithm tells me when to enter, not exit. Exiting can be a mechanical process, fixed time, fixed distance, or a combination of these with multiple contracts. It is impossible to lose in the long term with a good entry algorithm. I might even suggest the 24 week exercise was heading to that conclusion. The problem with exiting by algorithm is that most or all of the profit can be foregone, because it is designed to follow rather than anticipate a turning point. .

__________________
"There is a plenty of proof, but unfortunately it is entirely unprovable." - Punshhh
"There’s a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an idiot." – Stephen Wright

Last edited by Maurice Ledifficile; 9th December 2015 at 03:41 PM.
Maurice Ledifficile is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:52 PM   #26
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by Maurice Ledifficile View Post
Thank you Maurice.

If it is any help to anyone, all technical indicators suggest hedging physical shares with derivatives. At least partially. I believe there is a chance of a 20% drop in all global stock markets.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:52 PM   #27
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Maurice Ledifficile View Post
Yep
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 02:53 PM   #28
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I believe there is a chance of a 20% drop in all global stock markets.
There is.

There is also the possibility of a 30% drop. And a 5% gain. And a 9% drop. And a 60% gain. And all points in between.
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 03:01 PM   #29
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
There is.

There is also the possibility of a 30% drop. And a 5% gain. And a 9% drop. And a 60% gain. And all points in between.
True but I have just made a testable prediction. The current apple trade is firing.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 03:23 PM   #30
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
True but I have just made a testable prediction. The current apple trade is firing.
No. Your claim is not testable because you gave no time frame.

This is a skeptics forum, in case you didn't realize that.
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 03:37 PM   #31
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
No. Your claim is not testable because you gave no time frame.

This is a skeptics forum, in case you didn't realize that.
Before the end of january. This prediction however has no relevance to my investment activities, so no skin in the game, and I would much prefer to be wrong for the sake of funds I have indirect interest in.
I am pretty sure apple is on the way down.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 04:08 PM   #32
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Before the end of january. This prediction however has no relevance to my investment activities, so no skin in the game, and I would much prefer to be wrong for the sake of funds I have indirect interest in.
I am pretty sure apple is on the way down.
Which market(s)?
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 04:24 PM   #33
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Which market(s)?
Which global stock markets? All of them I guess. A falling tide lowers all boats. I rather regret making a dire prediction here as I could easily be wrong and reverse my idea without warning. This is the nature of technical trading, reversals can be made in a heart beat. Last night I was short and got caught in the huge rally, then covered about even just as the market was crashing. A 350 point dow swing. The nature of this volatility is discouraging for near term performance going into xmas.

ETA I have just gone short at 17494.5

Last edited by Samson; 9th December 2015 at 04:26 PM.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 10:28 PM   #34
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Which global stock markets? All of them I guess. A falling tide lowers all boats. I rather regret making a dire prediction here as I could easily be wrong and reverse my idea without warning. This is the nature of technical trading, reversals can be made in a heart beat. Last night I was short and got caught in the huge rally, then covered about even just as the market was crashing. A 350 point dow swing. The nature of this volatility is discouraging for near term performance going into xmas.

ETA I have just gone short at 17494.5
So every single stock market in the world will go down exactly 20%? Or not? Now it sounds like you're backing off your prediction.
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 10:36 PM   #35
AdMan
Penultimate Amazing
 
AdMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 10,293
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
So every single stock market in the world will go down exactly 20%? Or not? Now it sounds like you're backing off your prediction.

Backing off, waffling and weaseling are all part of Samson's M.O.
__________________
As long as people believe in absurdities they will continue to commit atrocities.
- Voltaire.
AdMan is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 10:44 PM   #36
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
I have made a number of predictions, most correct. In my opinion there became a concerted wish that I would fail, which is counterintuitive. Surely a more sensible wish would be to find it established an edge is possible, and find ways to exploit that.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2015, 10:47 PM   #37
AdMan
Penultimate Amazing
 
AdMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 10,293
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I have made a number of predictions, most correct. In my opinion there became a concerted wish that I would fail, which is counterintuitive. Surely a more sensible wish would be to find it established an edge is possible, and find ways to exploit that.

Sounds reasonable. Why don't you try to do that in an honest manner?
__________________
As long as people believe in absurdities they will continue to commit atrocities.
- Voltaire.
AdMan is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2015, 08:53 AM   #38
The Central Scrutinizer
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Central Scrutinizer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 52,859
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I have made a number of predictions, most correct. In my opinion there became a concerted wish that I would fail, which is counterintuitive. Surely a more sensible wish would be to find it established an edge is possible, and find ways to exploit that.
So...... minus 20%? Yes? No? Don't know?
__________________
If I see somebody with a gun on a plane? I'll kill him.

Lupus is Lupus tor central scrutineezer
The Central Scrutinizer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2015, 03:38 AM   #39
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
So...... minus 20%? Yes? No? Don't know?
On the technical picture I observe, there are no immediate precedents in the last few decades for this long term sideways action to be shrugged off and the bull market to resume. What is true is that the Americans lead the free world and must be accorded respect. An unregulated labour market seems to separate American growth prospects from Europe and Australia. Therefore while I am confident a market pullback for a year or so is happening, I would still back your country to recover first.
Meanwhile, back to TA......
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2015, 03:55 AM   #40
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,277
I might add as suggested earlier, there is a huge opportunity right now to partially hedge any physical exposure. 401's and so on.
Market pullbacks do happen, and why be a marionette?
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Economics, Business and Finance

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 12:12 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2014, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.
This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.