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Old 19th February 2016, 08:57 AM   #361
psionl0
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
knowing what is coming correctly, is often not enough, when the imbecile pressing the buttons is me.
So that's what you mean by "kevsta-proof".

I apologize. I should have realized that I could force your profits south by merely talking about investing in your system.
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Old 19th February 2016, 11:43 AM   #362
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So that's what you mean by "kevsta-proof".

I apologize. I should have realized that I could force your profits south by merely talking about investing in your system.
If I wasn't fuming so much I would use a smilie here ......

and of course the market's taunting continues, oil continues falling, for the sake of another -10% nerve with the account, I could have been (accidentally lol) +400% ish this afternoon.

it will give me no pleasure at all to see it hit my predicted take-profit area at around 26.30 this time, although I acted correctly doing as I did closing at a pre-defined point, for if oil had gapped the other way the account could have been gone and into owing them money in an instant.

stupid stupid stupid mistake though, and so very frustrating to wash away 2 months good trading accidentally, even with correct analysis to work from.

I'm not worried about clawing it back again, after all if I cant do that over and over again then its going nowhere anyway, just have to add one more +30% into the plan than it already had, and extend by a couple more months lol.

so I'm having a week or two break to re-focus now, do something other than trading.

this week its been far more like swapping the "a" and the "d" around in the word.
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Last edited by kevsta; 19th February 2016 at 11:45 AM.
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Old 19th February 2016, 02:36 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
If I wasn't fuming so much I would use a smilie here ......

and of course the market's taunting continues, oil continues falling, for the sake of another -10% nerve with the account, I could have been (accidentally lol) +400% ish this afternoon.

it will give me no pleasure at all to see it hit my predicted take-profit area at around 26.30 this time, although I acted correctly doing as I did closing at a pre-defined point, for if oil had gapped the other way the account could have been gone and into owing them money in an instant.

stupid stupid stupid mistake though, and so very frustrating to wash away 2 months good trading accidentally, even with correct analysis to work from.

I'm not worried about clawing it back again, after all if I cant do that over and over again then its going nowhere anyway, just have to add one more +30% into the plan than it already had, and extend by a couple more months lol.

so I'm having a week or two break to re-focus now, do something other than trading.

this week its been far more like swapping the "a" and the "d" around in the word.
A lot of that is why I don't regard actual trading as the thread subject, more the correctly predicting a move which will go substantially more in favour than against. For example SNP is still going up but I reversed and went short before going long again today and squaring for the weekend. Monday will be a good rally.
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Old 20th February 2016, 02:00 AM   #364
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
A lot of that is why I don't regard actual trading as the thread subject, more the correctly predicting a move which will go substantially more in favour than against. For example SNP is still going up but I reversed and went short before going long again today and squaring for the weekend. Monday will be a good rally.
so I lost money being right, and you made money being wrong?

its interesting, US equities (the Nikkei is still synced up) have diverged away from their drivers USDJPY and Oil the last couple of days. Either the algos are reprogramming away from carry-funded arbitrage, and the markets are all going start doing their own thing, based on buying and selling again, like real markets..

..or US equities are going to rapidly catch down to reality once more.



my bet is on the latter, as the record amount of retail shorts at the lows all got squeezed out, before we shift the zone down again.

as ever, you might squeeze another 20-30pts out here on the longside before the real move comes
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Old 22nd February 2016, 03:50 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
so I lost money being right, and you made money being wrong?

its interesting, US equities (the Nikkei is still synced up) have diverged away from their drivers USDJPY and Oil the last couple of days. Either the algos are reprogramming away from carry-funded arbitrage, and the markets are all going start doing their own thing, based on buying and selling again, like real markets..

..or US equities are going to rapidly catch down to reality once more.



my bet is on the latter, as the record amount of retail shorts at the lows all got squeezed out, before we shift the zone down again.

as ever, you might squeeze another 20-30pts out here on the longside before the real move comes
This is a good day to go short, easy money.
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Old 23rd February 2016, 09:16 AM   #366
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
This is a good day to go short, easy money.
I covered a few contracts, but some are running. Straining at the leash.
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Old 25th February 2016, 02:08 PM   #367
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The down trend in American stocks may be over. There has been no bear market on a numbers basis, and everyone should consider being long stocks for the next few months.

I am making this recommendation using the usual "algo".

As at end of trading day 25 2 16.

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Old 26th February 2016, 05:42 AM   #368
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The down trend in American stocks may be over. There has been no bear market on a numbers basis, and everyone should consider being long stocks for the next few months.

I am making this recommendation using the usual "algo".

As at end of trading day 25 2 16.
so presumably then your algo knows the outcome of the G20 this weekend and that the CTL+P crew are going to go ballistic, and not disappoint the market?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...s-announcement

because if it's the opposite I fear your psychic algo is going to be 100% wrong.
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Old 26th February 2016, 12:40 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
so presumably then your algo knows the outcome of the G20 this weekend and that the CTL+P crew are going to go ballistic, and not disappoint the market?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...s-announcement

because if it's the opposite I fear your psychic algo is going to be 100% wrong.
Technical analysis can not expect to be 100% correct. All we are watching is crowd behaviour, the boat tipping over, and a reaction to prevent it is an analogy. Over correcting is the game theory norm, so we have volatility and thus trading opportunities.
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Old 27th February 2016, 01:49 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Technical analysis can not expect to be 100% correct. All we are watching is crowd behaviour, the boat tipping over, and a reaction to prevent it is an analogy. Over correcting is the game theory norm, so we have volatility and thus trading opportunities.
none of this has anything to do with the little sequence of bar closes that provides a "buy" signal on the algo, does it?

if you had ever actually back-tested (and I've said many times, this is the smoking gun, because IF your "algo" worked, this is the first step and is relative childsplay to do) then you would know yourself that not only isn't it 100% right, but that its actually about 50%, to even get a little poke in the right direction first, but way less than that if you would like to hold the position more than a day and not be underwater again the next day. IMO.

in other words we may as well just guess, but we should "trust you" anyway?
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Old 27th February 2016, 04:14 AM   #371
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
none of this has anything to do with the little sequence of bar closes that provides a "buy" signal on the algo, does it?

if you had ever actually back-tested (and I've said many times, this is the smoking gun, because IF your "algo" worked, this is the first step and is relative childsplay to do) then you would know yourself that not only isn't it 100% right, but that its actually about 50%, to even get a little poke in the right direction first, but way less than that if you would like to hold the position more than a day and not be underwater again the next day. IMO.

in other words we may as well just guess, but we should "trust you" anyway?
The "algo" is a guide. Currently for example it is long snp at 1950, stop 1800. When I hit enter on this post, in 2 hours I am stuck with the prediction for as long as the forum is around. But the concept does not need the trade to be successful, it is just one of a score I made here, which collectively comprise a successful strategy. Anyone who can be bothered can test against the several threads, maybe I will do so myself.
Meanwhile I have no doubt there will be declines monday, which has no impact at all on the current long position. I am square and will almost certainly be short monday. Oil got to 34.69, from my 29.74 call on the other thread, so it is up to others to assess whether this was helpful to them. I don't trade oil. Was this no good because I suggested 35 as a target?
It will still get there of course.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 03:10 AM   #372
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Everything looks technically au fait for a pretty good rally today

Snp currently at 1986.49 based on futures market.
Could there be 1.5%?
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Old 3rd March 2016, 03:18 AM   #373
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I am a little surprised. There has never been a more clear bull market from a technical perspective about to happen now, yet no one on thread has any interest.
The sage ones will say nothing and go long their boots.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 03:38 AM   #374
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If I may wander off piste into the foggy realm of fundamentals, President Trump will be huge for the share market. All those roads, all those bridges to be mended.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 07:20 AM   #375
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Everything looks technically au fait for a pretty good rally today

Snp currently at 1986.49 based on futures market.
Could there be 1.5%?
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am a little surprised. There has never been a more clear bull market from a technical perspective about to happen now, yet no one on thread has any interest.
The sage ones will say nothing and go long their boots.
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
If I may wander off piste into the foggy realm of fundamentals, President Trump will be huge for the share market. All those roads, all those bridges to be mended.
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Old 3rd March 2016, 09:57 AM   #376
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am a little surprised. There has never been a more clear bull market from a technical perspective about to happen now, yet no one on thread has any interest.
The sage ones will say nothing and go long their boots.
gold?
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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:36 PM   #377
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
gold?
Some people like yield.
Stocks pay dividends. But I must say 2% sounds slow as a wet week. Hardly befitting the trepid derivatives explorer.

Ok I just saw a gold picture. Hell, looks like 1500, but I have no idea why. Maybe asteroid mining is a little way off.

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Old 3rd March 2016, 12:41 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
You must be voting Clinton. Boring old matron.
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Old 21st March 2016, 12:55 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Ok I just saw a gold picture. Hell, looks like 1500, but I have no idea why. Maybe asteroid mining is a little way off.
Another Samson "prediction"

No indication of timescale (so iF gold finally creeps to $1500 in 20 years time its still a "win"). Heck, "looks like 1500" isn't even a firm indication of price. It's like getting tips from a magic 8-ball.
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Old 21st March 2016, 01:28 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another Samson "prediction"

No indication of timescale (so iF gold finally creeps to $1500 in 20 years time its still a "win"). Heck, "looks like 1500" isn't even a firm indication of price. It's like getting tips from a magic 8-ball.
Just when I thought you were about to praise the stocks pick.
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Old 21st March 2016, 02:26 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another Samson "prediction"

No indication of timescale (so iF gold finally creeps to $1500 in 20 years time its still a "win"). Heck, "looks like 1500" isn't even a firm indication of price. It's like getting tips from a magic 8-ball.
You must really be BORED!
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:04 AM   #382
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You must really be BORED!
Not particularly. I find it interesting when a thread is kept alive by a couple of contributors and then they drift off. In the past, kevsta's disinterest tends to coincide with a claimed increase in real-life workload and/or a failure in the current model.

In Samson's case it seems to be "sing when you're winning", or at least that's how it appeared in the 6 month experiment.
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:05 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Just when I thought you were about to praise the stocks pick.
You mean this magic 8-ball contribution ?

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Snp currently at 1986.49 based on futures market.
Could there be 1.5%?
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:30 AM   #384
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Not particularly. I find it interesting when a thread is kept alive by a couple of contributors and then they drift off. In the past, kevsta's disinterest tends to coincide with a claimed increase in real-life workload and/or a failure in the current model.

In Samson's case it seems to be "sing when you're winning", or at least that's how it appeared in the 6 month experiment.
I could sing a lot more, but patiently wait for another band to help out
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:33 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Not particularly. I find it interesting when a thread is kept alive by a couple of contributors and then they drift off.
I found it more of a relief. Samson hadn't made a post in this thread for more than 2 weeks and now, for no good reason, you have got him posting again.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In the past, kevsta's disinterest tends to coincide with a claimed increase in real-life workload and/or a failure in the current model.
Kevsta has had a particularly bad month (he is now down 611.56 on his original 650.00 investment) but that is no reason to engage with Samson.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In Samson's case it seems to be "sing when you're winning", or at least that's how it appeared in the 6 month experiment.
Who cares!
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:43 AM   #386
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The same day and time, march 3, I did write

I am a little surprised. There has never been a more clear bull market from a technical perspective about to happen now, yet no one on thread has any interest.
The sage ones will say nothing and go long their boots.


The market is now 2050, so from 1986 a rally of 3.2% to date.
There was an intra day low of 1968 in that time, so a draw down of 0.9%.

This is what I am trying to illustrate. A good trade will offer a profit much greater than the maximum draw down. So in this case a factor of 3 to 1. Like a race course certainty paying 4 quid to win.
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:50 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I found it more of a relief. Samson hadn't made a post in this thread for more than 2 weeks and now, for no good reason, you have got him posting again.


Kevsta has had a particularly bad month (he is now down 611.56 on his original 650.00 investment) but that is no reason to engage with Samson.


Who cares!
Surely that is a typo.
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Old 21st March 2016, 03:55 AM   #388
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I found it more of a relief. Samson hadn't made a post in this thread for more than 2 weeks and now, for no good reason, you have got him posting again.


Kevsta has had a particularly bad month (he is now down 611.56 on his original 650.00 investment) but that is no reason to engage with Samson.


Who cares!
haha yes I blew that account up, after the over-levered accident I took 3 more highly over-levered bets and lost. I lost faith in the platform and broker after the accidental loss and decided to double or nothing it into glory or oblivion. obviously the market did what it does in such circumstances and took my money.

I now have only the other MT4 based account with about the same amount in there, between me and never trading again.

however I do take exception at the "claimed workload" as my workload is continually intense and I have continually told you this forum offers me nothing, I consider it purely a waste of my valuable time. hence when I disappear it is because I have better things to do.

Skeptica and Unobtainium also continue to prove that TA is more viable than stock picking, and as I have always said, my own trading antics prove nothing about "TA" because there is occasionally a naughty monkey at the controls.
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Old 21st March 2016, 04:12 AM   #389
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
haha yes I blew that account up, after the over-levered accident I took 3 more highly over-levered bets and lost. I lost faith in the platform and broker after the accidental loss and decided to double or nothing it into glory or oblivion. obviously the market did what it does in such circumstances and took my money.

I now have only the other MT4 based account with about the same amount in there, between me and never trading again.

however I do take exception at the "claimed workload" as my workload is continually intense and I have continually told you this forum offers me nothing, I consider it purely a waste of my valuable time. hence when I disappear it is because I have better things to do.

Skeptica and Unobtainium also continue to prove that TA is more viable than stock picking, and as I have always said, my own trading antics prove nothing about "TA" because there is occasionally a naughty monkey at the controls.
I will post the results of the account cited earlier on march 31 as promised. I see nothing surprising in your results, and promising to never trade again should better be stated promising to never trade like that again.
Why not persevere? Remember Bruce and the spider.
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Old 21st March 2016, 04:14 AM   #390
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
however I do take exception at the "claimed workload" .....
You have nothing to worry about. This is just a poster who has nothing better to do.
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Old 21st March 2016, 04:29 AM   #391
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I will post the results of the account cited earlier on march 31 as promised. I see nothing surprising in your results, and promising to never trade again should better be stated promising to never trade like that again.
Why not persevere? Remember Bruce and the spider.
because if I cannot control my impulses on these two designated test accounts, after five years practice, then I likely never will.

I'm not "promising not to trade", I'm just not adding any more money in, unless this lone final account survives and thrives. and probably not even then.
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Old 21st March 2016, 04:36 AM   #392
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
because if I cannot control my impulses on these two designated test accounts, after five years practice, then I likely never will.

I'm not "promising not to trade", I'm just not adding any more money in, unless this lone final account survives and thrives. and probably not even then.
Just start taking screen captures when you enter a trade. You can refer back to your reasons, and if the screen capture is missing, you shouldn't have done it.
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Old 21st March 2016, 04:38 AM   #393
The Don
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
however I do take exception at the "claimed workload" as my workload is continually intense and I have continually told you this forum offers me nothing, I consider it purely a waste of my valuable time. hence when I disappear it is because I have better things to do.
I apologise if I have given offence, it's just that I have no way at all of verifying what you say when you say you're busy at work. To have said

Quote:
In the past, kevsta's disinterest tends to coincide with an increase in real-life workload .....
would imply that I know you, and would amount to doxxing.
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Old 21st March 2016, 04:40 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Who cares!
Did I miss the memo when they made you the referee of the entire internet ?
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Old 21st March 2016, 05:19 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Did I miss the memo when they made you the referee of the entire internet ?
Apparently so. The emails went out last November.

Of course, I don't know how that is related to my comment.
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Old 21st March 2016, 06:02 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I apologise if I have given offence, it's just that I have no way at all of verifying what you say when you say you're busy at work.
my workload is ever-present and I am usually either attending to it a week or 2 in arrears, or wasting time elsewhere and falling even further behind.

guess what category posting here (and indeed small time Forex trading) falls into?
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Old 21st March 2016, 06:29 AM   #397
The Don
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Apparently so. The emails went out last November.

Of course, I don't know how that is related to my comment.
It related to your recent tone towards me:

Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You must really be BORED!
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Who cares!
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You have nothing to worry about. This is just a poster who has nothing better to do.
For some reason me posting in this thread seems to irritate you and you've determined that as the boss of the internet you're going to school me in how I spend my leisure time.
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Old 22nd March 2016, 02:34 PM   #398
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We should see nasdaq outperform dow and snp500 for the next two weeks regardless of direction. A cautious trade would be a spread trade. I will help with the math if required.

Nasdaq 4439
dow 17587
snp 500 2050
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Old 23rd March 2016, 01:03 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
We should see nasdaq outperform dow and snp500 for the next two weeks regardless of direction. A cautious trade would be a spread trade. I will help with the math if required.

Nasdaq 4439
dow 17587
snp 500 2050
You've repeatedly demonstrated that math(s) is not your strong suit, so I'll pass if it's all the same to you.
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Old 23rd March 2016, 01:14 AM   #400
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Keep it up folks, this is the best variation of Mornington Crescent I have seen fir a while.
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