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Old 11th December 2015, 04:36 AM   #41
kevsta
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I might add as suggested earlier, there is a huge opportunity right now to partially hedge any physical exposure. 401's and so on.
Market pullbacks do happen, and why be a marionette?
its part of the buy and hoping game. wait it out for 5 or 10 years with claims of only a long term interest in portfolio value.
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Old 11th December 2015, 04:41 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
its part of the buy and hoping game. wait it out for 5 or 10 years with claims of only a long term interest in portfolio value.
kevsta, you are a bastion of hope for those who bought nikkei in 1990, and never realised they should have bought dow 30. The latter live the life of riley with their prescience yet the former are homeless and desperate. You may give all hope to a better way to level this playing field with technical analysis helping all to a quasi insurance style hedge.
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Old 11th December 2015, 07:32 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
On the technical picture I observe, there are no immediate precedents in the last few decades for this long term sideways action to be shrugged off and the bull market to resume. What is true is that the Americans lead the free world and must be accorded respect. An unregulated labour market seems to separate American growth prospects from Europe and Australia. Therefore while I am confident a market pullback for a year or so is happening, I would still back your country to recover first.
Meanwhile, back to TA......
Is that a yes or no?
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Old 11th December 2015, 08:13 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Is that a yes or no?
I live by the pen. I made a call.
I hope it is wrong but there it is.
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Old 11th December 2015, 08:34 AM   #45
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here's another one made by Mr Elliott and his prophet. interesting in that it gives both level and time predictions.

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Old 11th December 2015, 08:51 AM   #46
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Old 11th December 2015, 08:53 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
here's another one made by Mr Elliott and his prophet. interesting in that it gives both level and time predictions.

I can't agree there is enough history to suggest that (nor do you I am sure).
Elliot wave is just a way of describing a truism of market up legs and down legs. Many disciples had nothing to show for the seminars they attended but a beautiful set of german manufactured dividers with the magic numbers like point six one eight inscribed and sectioned.
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Old 11th December 2015, 09:11 AM   #48
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Old 11th December 2015, 10:05 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I can't agree there is enough history to suggest that (nor do you I am sure).
Elliot wave is just a way of describing a truism of market up legs and down legs. Many disciples had nothing to show for the seminars they attended but a beautiful set of german manufactured dividers with the magic numbers like point six one eight inscribed and sectioned.
I wouldn't be too surprised to see something like this happen, although Im not vouching for EW generally. The S&P def looks like its coming back to the (blue) 200ma in the next few years, and the next major (monthly view) liquidity level is around 1500-1580. it's also more over-extended now (away from the 200ma) than it was at the height of the bubble in 06, and at the depths of the lows in 09. this will definitely be mean reverting at some point.

edit, theres also this http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/09/massi...-concerns.html

Quote:
Corporate insiders have been selling their shares at near-record levels, and according to some, this could be a sign for outside investors to start selling as well.

Investment research firm TrimTabs reported on Wednesday that insider selling reached $7.6 billion for the month of November, the fourth-highest monthly level on record. For some this may be an alarming indicator, as corporate insiders tend to have more knowledge than public shareholders on the inner workings of the company, and what may drive stock prices up or down.

"Historically when insiders are selling heavily it's not the greatest sign," TrimTabs' chief executive, David Santschi, told CNBC in a phone interview Wednesday. "I'm surprised given the valuations in the market that they're not selling more than they are."
and this, neither look particularly good http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/1348982...arket-near-its

Quote:
While the major indexes remain within arm’s length of their 52-week high, the number of stocks hitting new lows is piling up.
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Old 11th December 2015, 11:28 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I wouldn't be too surprised to see something like this happen, although Im not vouching for EW generally. The S&P def looks like its coming back to the (blue) 200ma in the next few years, and the next major (monthly view) liquidity level is around 1500-1580. it's also more over-extended now (away from the 200ma) than it was at the height of the bubble in 06, and at the depths of the lows in 09. this will definitely be mean reverting at some point.
Well yes, and this problem is inherent in the sideways movement. It would be elegant to suggest the natural move is up after consolidating, but price history does not show this tends to happen. 2008 was when Buffet could say something interesting and he did. Essentially, buy the sonofabitch.
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Old 11th December 2015, 01:20 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Well yes, and this problem is inherent in the sideways movement. It would be elegant to suggest the natural move is up after consolidating, but price history does not show this tends to happen. 2008 was when Buffet could say something interesting and he did. Essentially, buy the sonofabitch.
technically it looks like a dead cert short to me (on the monthly). were it not for the extreme and unprecedented conditions we are currently in (for 7 years lol) i would be pretty confident, however it's Fed day again on the 16th and a big surprise there would likely mean new highs again fairly quickly, so as ever its a 50/50 based on central planners mouths imo.

I just closed half my S&P short at 2010 (60pts) and the other half stop at +20pts and looking for more before a reversal.

however if it sells down hard at close I may close out and buy the open for the bounce, this has been pretty reliable the last few times it closed out a week on a big downdraft over the last 2 months.
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Old 11th December 2015, 01:46 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
technically it looks like a dead cert short to me (on the monthly). were it not for the extreme and unprecedented conditions we are currently in (for 7 years lol) i would be pretty confident, however it's Fed day again on the 16th and a big surprise there would likely mean new highs again fairly quickly, so as ever its a 50/50 based on central planners mouths imo.

I just closed half my S&P short at 2010 (60pts) and the other half stop at +20pts and looking for more before a reversal.

however if it sells down hard at close I may close out and buy the open for the bounce, this has been pretty reliable the last few times it closed out a week on a big downdraft over the last 2 months.
This looks a little shaping for a blackish monday. I am staying short for the weekend looking to 3 to 4 hundred down during monday trading. This ain't looking pretty....
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Old 12th December 2015, 09:02 AM   #53
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Skeptica weeks 5-6. 284/399 trades = 71% win. 6 down days / 34 days trading.

The funds started the week with drawdowns which recovered for the first 2 days of the week, and giving a little growth, but which pulled back to just about flat again (av +0.49% across all accounts) and then (as "second guessed" last week) ran straight into the heaviest equity drawdowns so far.

the increased leverage applied to the losses, also increased the maximum running drawdowns across most of the accounts, making the widgets (equity) graphs look quite concerning currently. however assuming the trade set continues profitable, we should see rapid recovery as the increased leverage works on the way up too.



UnObtainium weeks 2-3 combined total account trades 560/710 = 79% win.

..a monster second week for the 4 main funds, which put in an (average total) gain of just over +10% from 15.33% to 23.37 ..once again, down-days are looking rare, (to be expected at 80% trade win rate?) and notably Wildfire has not had one at all yet, still pushing up, while the others draw back.

..this is becoming more interesting now, as this account has different combinations of traders on each fund, so each produces entirely different results per fund. some more closely model the Skeptica 4's performance, (plus and/or minus certain traders) and others behaving quite differently from Skeptica at times. but because it is not one fixed trade set that all accounts take at their own position sizes (like Skeptica) so trade win rate is unique to each fund, so I will focus on only the total win rate on reporting, where my (by design) long term target goal is 80% +/- 1% win rate across all 5 funds.



Another not-so-good week for people taking misguided pair trades based on ye olde perceived market wisdoms.

The (renamed) LordOfTheAlgos account turns one month old at +14.36% (pls note image says 14.86 incorrectly, so deduct 0.5% from total trade) Apple rolled over again back to $113, (turning at the top of it's channel) so more negative P&L on the "buy side" brings us to a running total of +20.16% at the one month point (10 Nov) and which at AAPL $113.20 now gives us the ability to buy back 1014 shares (from our original 833) or 1000 and pocket the extra 14 x $113.20 = $1584



and with the S&P currently (40-ish pts) red on the year again, and at approx 9% up from beginning of 2014, all 10 accounts have now (currently) outperformed it since then.



My stocks portfolio has slumped to -3.7%
Stock Slayer is at +21.57%
Total trade +25.27% after 2 weeks trading.



Yay at TA systematically extracting profits across 18FX pairs while stocks flounder around in their random walk
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Old 12th December 2015, 09:12 AM   #54
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Why is this thread no longer about technical analysis? It's great that one can look at charts and draw intuitive conclusions, but it is going nowhere. If I were king, and I know I'm not, most of this thread would be transferred to kevsta's graphs depository stock market thread.
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Old 12th December 2015, 09:56 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by Maurice Ledifficile View Post
Why is this thread no longer about technical analysis? It's great that one can look at charts and draw intuitive conclusions, but it is going nowhere. If I were king, and I know I'm not, most of this thread would be transferred to kevsta's graphs depository stock market thread.
how is it not about technical analysis? what exactly do you think is behind the 6 separate trading systems providing trades into the 10 x test accounts?

technical analysis is providing the 10x climbing lines, like it or not

you just miss the good old days of mocking Samson and talking nonsense about kidneys instead for 30 pages do you?
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Old 12th December 2015, 10:00 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
how is it not about technical analysis? what exactly do you think is behind the 6 separate trading systems providing trades into the 10 x test accounts?

technical analysis is providing the 10x climbing lines, like it or not

you just miss the good old days of mocking Samson and talking nonsense about kidneys instead for 30 pages do you?
There is no evidence of technical analysis. Just silly chart after silly chart.

Again, your inspiration can come from anywhere you wish. No reason to believe it has anything to do with TA. No one has made a logical case, let alone prove anything.
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Old 12th December 2015, 10:22 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by Maurice Ledifficile View Post
There is no evidence of technical analysis. Just silly chart after silly chart.

Again, your inspiration can come from anywhere you wish. No reason to believe it has anything to do with TA. No one has made a logical case, let alone prove anything.
"silly chart after silly chart"

sillier than all that kidney nonsense you all loved so much?

CLICK. THE. LINKS. STUDY. THE. EVIDENCE

Skeptica main page

UnObtainium main page

comment on the actual evidence and I wont have to continually post screenshots of it, will I?
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Last edited by kevsta; 12th December 2015 at 10:39 AM. Reason: 5 x skeptica links fixed
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Old 12th December 2015, 10:49 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Maurice Ledifficile View Post
There is no evidence of technical analysis. Just silly chart after silly chart.

Well, there is this post in the other thread:
Quote:
from the list of 50+ trading systems here http://www.myfxbook.com/autotrade I spent some time researching their individual track records and picked 4 that looked likely to complement each other, when used together.
That looks like pure TA to me.
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Old 12th December 2015, 11:04 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Well, there is this post in the other thread:

That looks like pure TA to me.
wow, there IS someone paying attention
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Old 12th December 2015, 12:41 PM   #60
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here's some more evidence. in screenshot form, as you obviously cannot access my account control panel.

two weeks ago when I was constructing stock slayer, this was the trading system management view. the trading systems are blanked out, but note the theoretical daily growth the account was predicted to deliver.



then go here and note the daily growth at 10 trading days in (box top left) - 182 trades@ 76% win rate. ..all coincidence however, I am sure

this test is also endlessly repeatable. from what I have already posted in this thread, I could certainly reverse engineer and identify which trading systems delivered which trades to my accounts in a few hours, and with the settings shown here, you could rebuild stock-slayer exactly, and launch it again (new) every day for the next six months if you wanted to.

if anybody wants to reconstruct it in their own name (and I think you are worth a reply) PM me and I'll tell you all six trading systems, which are on which accounts, and possibly even settings. (or I may instead dismiss you with much private ridicule depending on your performance here thus far)
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Old 15th December 2015, 07:29 AM   #61
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The fund I started to compete with kevsta's collection is up 12% with nothing running. The first deal was 4 december, which I didn't say much about because it resulted in a 32% hit, short dow cfds during the biggest rally since june. I will post the statement when more meaningful data is available.
I am still not sure how you validate your performance figures kevsta, though I am no stickler for real money to prove something. Mine does involve a modicum of hard cash.
Most of the deals are backed by screen captures on entry with the technical picture of the algorithm clearly visible.

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Old 15th December 2015, 07:53 AM   #62
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And so it begins....
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Old 15th December 2015, 08:03 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
And so it begins continues....
ftfy.
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Old 15th December 2015, 08:21 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
And so it begins....
Well it began badly, but there's more. Soon after the dismal start I took the account to a low of 48.3% drawdown on 11 december while getting used to the live saxo platform. From there the maths is straightforward, 116% gain in 5 days. These cfds are incredible for leverage!
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Old 15th December 2015, 02:37 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Well it began badly, but there's more. Soon after the dismal start I took the account to a low of 48.3% drawdown on 11 december while getting used to the live saxo platform. From there the maths is straightforward, 116% gain in 5 days. These cfds are incredible for leverage!
for over-leverage you mean. to verify it for anybody else to see, (and for cutting edge analysis of your trading) hook it up to myfxbook.com

you need to supply them the platform investor pw (for read-only access) so they can log into your broker to downloads the latest account records, to be able to "verify" performance.

most platforms will also just print a statement out.
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Old 15th December 2015, 05:21 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
for over-leverage you mean. to verify it for anybody else to see, (and for cutting edge analysis of your trading) hook it up to myfxbook.com

you need to supply them the platform investor pw (for read-only access) so they can log into your broker to downloads the latest account records, to be able to "verify" performance.

most platforms will also just print a statement out.
Yes saxo has all the data, trade logs, statements, account summaries. Unfortunately no browser will work at present on that computer.
Surely a screen capture verifies performance?
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Old 16th December 2015, 03:31 AM   #67
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depends on what you mean by verified I suppose. ..perhaps you could extract all the info and (re)compile a nice Excel spreadsheet or something
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Old 16th December 2015, 05:24 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Well it began badly, but there's more. Soon after the dismal start I took the account to a low of 48.3% drawdown on 11 december while getting used to the live saxo platform. From there the maths is straightforward, 116% gain in 5 days. These cfds are incredible for leverage!
Not what I was referring to. Sit back and watch...
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Old 16th December 2015, 06:34 AM   #69
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Happy Fed Day everybody. statistically a very good day for stocks
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Old 16th December 2015, 12:49 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
Happy Fed Day everybody. statistically a very good day for stocks
We are long dow, scenic route as always despite technical analysis saying it is a buy.

ETA and accordingly the account is currently up 45%, yet went to above 100% margin on the journey.

Last edited by Samson; 16th December 2015 at 01:49 PM.
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Old 17th December 2015, 04:38 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post

ETA and accordingly the account is currently up 45%, yet went to above 100% margin on the journey.
what do you mean by this? that you were so over-levered that you got to within a percent or 2 of a margin-call account liquidation?

if so, I predict this is not going to end well.
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Old 17th December 2015, 06:13 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
what do you mean by this? that you were so over-levered that you got to within a percent or 2 of a margin-call account liquidation?

if so, I predict this is not going to end well.
I am not sure about that. Here is the statement for this tiny account. It exists solely for this thread with a nominal NZ dollar amount.
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Old 17th December 2015, 06:26 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am not sure about that. Here is the statement for this tiny account. It exists solely for this thread with a nominal NZ dollar amount.
maybe I misunderstood what you said, its definitely possible..

but with the account low at $775, if at that time you were over-levered on a big position running the wrong way against you, say using ($300?) as margin, if the operating P&L balance falls below -475 (dep on individual broker policies) the account will suddenly liquidate to zero on you..

be careful, sounds like you may have gotten close before the market turned for you, this time..
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Old 18th December 2015, 01:27 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
maybe I misunderstood what you said, its definitely possible..

but with the account low at $775, if at that time you were over-levered on a big position running the wrong way against you, say using ($300?) as margin, if the operating P&L balance falls below -475 (dep on individual broker policies) the account will suddenly liquidate to zero on you..

be careful, sounds like you may have gotten close before the market turned for you, this time..
It is only a bit of fun for the thread.
I am more interested in continuing to make real world predictions from technical analysis. For example apple stock is 106 with the target for shorts being 105, and I expect this to overshoot on monday. It is a little unfortunate I am talking to myself about real world trades which could help people with their portfolios.
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Old 19th December 2015, 03:27 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
It is only a bit of fun for the thread.
yes but you still dont want to blow it up, can't you trade at smaller size?

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am more interested in continuing to make real world predictions from technical analysis. For example apple stock is 106 with the target for shorts being 105, and I expect this to overshoot on monday. It is a little unfortunate I am talking to myself about real world trades which could help people with their portfolios.
indeed. Apple push 2 down its new weekly channel (completed? underway anyway) this week.. ..and I dont know about you, but most of the TA world are looking at a huge head & shoulders on the weekly now, aren't they?



Quote:
so what with all the work launching the hedge fund its been a little while since I looked at Apple. Short - Medium term Bearish IMO.

Momentum is also gathering / accelerating on the downside across all timeframes, once the algos switch to net short watch out below for a while, this was a heavily played Momo stock all the way up.

not so sure about going long at 107 now, as it didn't happen before 120 (ie Samson's stoploss) and the subsequent top-out / roll-over.

107.00 which Samson picked as his stop level is also just above a big liquidity level (not marked) at the 102 area, making it very likely we would visit there again first before any major push higher, but I think its more likely to run a couple more pushes down the newly formed weekly downtrend channel something like as marked out here.



when QE3 was launched it was around the $80 mark, technically I would say it also looks quite likely to be revisiting there again in the next year or so, unless of course I am among the 8% of economists who have the faintest idea (once again)

of course any Fed announcement of no hike / dovish downgrades / QE4 will immediately negate the above prediction, and all short bets are off again.
well, they actually finally raised, and at a close of $105.80 from a most recent all time high of $134.40 that's -21% and so this has now entered a full technical bear market?

it closed there once before back in August, so technically you could say it started there, but the Fed stick-save (not raising in Sept) saved it then, and they can no longer do that on every swoon, so I think we are Bear-On now.

edit. apparently it's official now. looks like "the news did get sold" ultimately?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...aapl/77560080/

Quote:
Apple crashes into bear market: $160B gone!

Apple (AAPL) diehards who keep saying the stock "will come back" are going into hibernation today.

Shares of the gadget maker closed down another 2.7% Friday to $106.03 — knocking the stock down 21% from its recent high of $134.54. The breathtaking decline not only puts Apple into a bear market - defined by a 20% drop — but has obliterated a staggering $160 billion in shareholder wealth from the top.

Just to put that into perspective, Apple's $160 billion decline is larger than 477 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are worth. A drop this big is the financial equivalent of wiping out the market value of entire companies like Pepsico (PEP) at $146 billion, International Business Machines (IBM) at $133 billion or Nike (NKE) at $111 billion.

Seeing such a massive decline in Apple carries more weight than a similar decline in any other stock would. Apple is still worth more than any other U.S. company — making it the most important stock in market measures like the S&P 500. Apple also is the most widely held stock by individual investors, says Sigfig, so the decline directly hits home.
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Old 19th December 2015, 05:22 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
yes but you still dont want to blow it up, can't you trade at smaller size?



indeed. Apple push 2 down its new weekly channel (completed? underway anyway) this week.. ..and I dont know about you, but most of the TA world are looking at a huge head & shoulders on the weekly now, aren't they?





well, they actually finally raised, and at a close of $105.80 from a most recent all time high of $134.40 that's -21% and so this has now entered a full technical bear market?

it closed there once before back in August, so technically you could say it started there, but the Fed stick-save (not raising in Sept) saved it then, and they can no longer do that on every swoon, so I think we are Bear-On now.

edit. apparently it's official now. looks like "the news did get sold" ultimately?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...aapl/77560080/
Technical analysis often reveals truths which are most unwelcome to buy and hold disciples. That is why I don't trade shares on my own account, there is no point. The 20% decline that is underway in the markets generally is much more fun to trade by shorting the indices. But the audience seems to have disappeared for the meantime. The fun is when technical analysts are wrong.
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Old 20th December 2015, 05:14 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Technical analysis often reveals truths which are most unwelcome to buy and hold disciples. That is why I don't trade shares on my own account, there is no point. The 20% decline that is underway in the markets generally is much more fun to trade by shorting the indices. But the audience seems to have disappeared for the meantime. The fun is when technical analysts are wrong.
Shorting Apple is much the same as the main indices anyway, given it's high weightings. I was actually short it (AAPL) last week, I managed to hold it overnight once, but closed late Friday as I am very dubious about holding stocks trades because of the absurd gaps every open.

I am still short the S&P from last week, I caught it from 2075 again, closed at 2028, and then took it again at exactly the same place, but half size a few hours later. stoploss is at break-even now.

If it gaps down at open I may close it, and reverse long for a bounce. if it gaps up, I will add to the short position. if it opens without gapping I'll leave it alone and hope for an Asian inspired downdraft overnight.



and I'm still short EURUSD from early last week, its 200 odd pips up (+4%) and stoploss at breakeven, but I'm hoping for a full re-trace of the Draghi spike back to the 105's again ideally, for a 12-ish % account win.



RE the S&P and stocks generally, I do think there's bears lurking in them there woods now, and Im pretty confident we're not finished with first 1800, then 1568 here either.



this is an interesting view, its failed both the main channel, and then the support zone, and now looks to have re-tested from the underside and failed again..?

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Old 20th December 2015, 06:34 AM   #78
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WTI .. is also at historic GFC crisis monthly closing lows, and closed near the lows of the day, having already run the stops below the line once in the NY session and again later in the afternoon. The selling has reached historically extreme levels, its way heavier than at the depths of the GFC now and sentiment is terrible. hence bounce? we'll see.

if the price gaps down at open I will be dipping my toes on a long position immediately, and maybe without a gap anyway, as even a small bounce from here on the monthly scale could easily run up to $44 before turning down again, if so. but its holidays - usually quieter and closed markets from next week, (but sometimes big price moves because of thin trading volume too) so it would need to run into a decent profit this coming week before I would hold it over the holidays.

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Old 20th December 2015, 04:23 PM   #79
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I was also short the weekend and sold the gap up, I expect at least some selling later.
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Old 5th January 2016, 03:39 AM   #80
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The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending in that bourse.
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