ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Economics, Business and Finance
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 6th January 2016, 12:54 AM   #81
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Cymru
Posts: 22,630
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending in that bourse.
Another essentially meaningless "prediction".....

With no indication as to timescale, would a 30% drop in twenty five years time indicate a "success" for technical analysis even if the market is currently at, say 10,000 and the 30% drop in twenty five years time takes it from 40,000 to 28,000 ?

The "90% certainty" also gives plenty of wriggle room to claim "success" even if there is no significant drop (or if there is a much smaller correction somewhere down the line).

Same old, same old
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2016, 01:34 AM   #82
AdMan
Penultimate Amazing
 
AdMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 10,293
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending in that bourse.

You should try your hand at palm reading. I think your "skills" would better serve you there.
__________________
As long as people believe in absurdities they will continue to commit atrocities.
- Voltaire.
AdMan is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2016, 02:42 AM   #83
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
happy new year all.

Samson, hope your account is still rising

.. but I also have a real problem with your probability statements. we already saw one fail before when challenged, (90% probability of hitting one number before another on the S&P)

and I don't believe there IS any way to calculate the probability of any individual trade's movement, in advance, only having done 100 or 1000 of the same thing can you then look at the "what happened" stats for a rough guide.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2016, 05:57 PM   #84
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Actually the extent of the decline is always unknown and indeed if I happen to be right about 30% I would definitely be a buyer. But I predicted a 20% decline in snp by the end of january, which I still think quite likely. Because I was found guilty by the thread of making false statements in the OP, I feel obliged to make technical predictions to effectively appeal the verdict.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2016, 07:19 PM   #85
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
happy new year all.

Samson, hope your account is still rising

.. but I also have a real problem with your probability statements. we already saw one fail before when challenged, (90% probability of hitting one number before another on the S&P)

and I don't believe there IS any way to calculate the probability of any individual trade's movement, in advance, only having done 100 or 1000 of the same thing can you then look at the "what happened" stats for a rough guide.
The probabilities are based on back testing, and not just extracted from thin air. I think people might be a little surprised at the extent of this bear market.
I just took a 100 points from the dow after market, and watched it immediately drop another 100. I suggested people could hedge their physical portfolios with derivatives before all this, as that is the value of TA.
Meanwhile the little account I mentioned is all over the place, but currently a little behind.

Something like this.

1500 dec 8
775 dec 11
2060 dec 17
593 dec 28
1555 jan 5
1116 jan 5
1356 to date
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 6th January 2016, 07:51 PM   #86
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another essentially meaningless "prediction".....

With no indication as to timescale, would a 30% drop in twenty five years time indicate a "success" for technical analysis even if the market is currently at, say 10,000 and the 30% drop in twenty five years time takes it from 40,000 to 28,000 ?

The "90% certainty" also gives plenty of wriggle room to claim "success" even if there is no significant drop (or if there is a much smaller correction somewhere down the line).

Same old, same old
The Don

On december 4 I posted

There looks to be equity downside, and everyone should be short apple stock.

The dow jones closed dec 4 at 17841 and apple at 119.03
Currently the numbers are 16760 and 100.74

On december 7 I posted

I would like to short light sweet crude at 39.17 right now...

ETA buy stop loss 43.50, no profit target but will advise when the moment arrives.


Currently feb oil is at 33.27

Then yesterday I said

The German share market is leading the way for the west. Unfortunately technical analysis says with 90% certainty that there is a 30% decline pending

At that posting time the dax was at 10347, and closed today at 10170,
It will open much lower with the dow currently down 150 in the after market.

I am not trying to be a clever dick at all, in fact I believe I am showing good faith by trying to substantiate what I said in the OP. My only tool is technical analysis.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 12:08 AM   #87
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Here is a picture that speaks volumes. I really do not know what the fundamentals say, but this weekly chart of the dax is extremely bleak. It is by no means too late to hedge physical portfolios in this bear market.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg new x dec 38 sell weekly dax 7 1 16.jpg (70.0 KB, 4 views)
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 01:29 AM   #88
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
it's only the "90% probability" that makes me argue with your calls, otherwise its just a standard trading prediction.

but it is just not possible to meaningfully or accurately measure or assign any kind of numbers to that (on a one-off basis) IMO.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kevsta; 7th January 2016 at 01:31 AM.
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 01:41 AM   #89
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Cymru
Posts: 22,630
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am not trying to be a clever dick at all, in fact I believe I am showing good faith by trying to substantiate what I said in the OP. My only tool is technical analysis.
As long as your "predictions" are vague enough, then subsequent events can be bent to fit.

Where "predictions" are binary then they're likely to be right at least 50% of the time and this approaches 100% when no timescale is provided.

Several times in this thread and/or the preceding thread Fooled by Randomness has been brought up, with good reason IMO.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 02:03 AM   #90
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As long as your "predictions" are vague enough, then subsequent events can be bent to fit.

Where "predictions" are binary then they're likely to be right at least 50% of the time and this approaches 100% when no timescale is provided.

Several times in this thread and/or the preceding thread Fooled by Randomness has been brought up, with good reason IMO.
Except I have made few specific predictions outside the trading experiment. Those I did make have all been characterised by going very little out of the money, and greatly into the money. This is the aim of all technical analysts. Your objections are based on your own thought experiment without analysing or auditing the thread. I say this because I know what I predicted, and what happened. Anyone can read this thread. I hope I can help some drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life. This should not be available only to Ivy league lucksters.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 02:26 AM   #91
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
AAPL at $97.50 (red arrow) in pre-market, next downside target 92.65 (blue 200ma)

__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 02:42 AM   #92
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Well, happy new year to you kevsta.
I will be interested to see how your funds progress. I don't use trading for income, it is a fascination to me to test my theories. Many traders are like that, from bitter experience they learn the day job remains obligatory. I will say however, that I stand by my odds.
There is not one chance in trillions that markets are random walks to this date. They should be, and eventually they will be. But at this time they are highly predictable with price history alone.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 03:03 AM   #93
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Cymru
Posts: 22,630
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Except I have made few specific predictions outside the trading experiment. Those I did make have all been characterised by going very little out of the money, and greatly into the money. This is the aim of all technical analysts. Your objections are based on your own thought experiment without analysing or auditing the thread. I say this because I know what I predicted, and what happened. Anyone can read this thread. I hope I can help some drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life. This should not be available only to Ivy league lucksters.
My understanding is based on the only objective evidence - your abject failure in the 6 month experiment.

Despite all your protestations, you haven't demonstrated that you are using technical analysis to generate your "predictions". Your "one in a billion" probability calculation, and failure to support or back it up, fully demonstrated your mathematical illiteracy. I've attempted to demonstrate the vagueness of your "predictions" and how their open-endedness means that they are effectively useless, I hope that lurkers have understood.

Furthermore you have delivered nothing which would enable "drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life" because you haven't released the model or adequately explained the methodology.

By all means carry on investing pretend money under the delusion that whatever you term Technical Analysis. I hope that this thread (and its predecessor) has encouraged people who might have been tempted to follow you with their own hard-earned money to think very carefully indeed.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 03:11 AM   #94
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
My understanding is based on the only objective evidence - your abject failure in the 6 month experiment.

Despite all your protestations, you haven't demonstrated that you are using technical analysis to generate your "predictions". Your "one in a billion" probability calculation, and failure to support or back it up, fully demonstrated your mathematical illiteracy. I've attempted to demonstrate the vagueness of your "predictions" and how their open-endedness means that they are effectively useless, I hope that lurkers have understood.

Furthermore you have delivered nothing which would enable "drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life" because you haven't released the model or adequately explained the methodology.

By all means carry on investing pretend money under the delusion that whatever you term Technical Analysis. I hope that this thread (and its predecessor) has encouraged people who might have been tempted to follow you with their own hard-earned money to think very carefully indeed.
Interesting post.
Abject failure is 35% return over 5.5 months? Are you sure you are not holding jsfisher's post mortem as the one true view? I disagree with his conclusion. Missing from this thread is an outsider to wade through it, extract my predictions, and offer independent analysis.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 03:32 AM   #95
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
My understanding is based on the only objective evidence - your abject failure in the 6 month experiment.

Despite all your protestations, you haven't demonstrated that you are using technical analysis to generate your "predictions". Your "one in a billion" probability calculation, and failure to support or back it up, fully demonstrated your mathematical illiteracy. I've attempted to demonstrate the vagueness of your "predictions" and how their open-endedness means that they are effectively useless, I hope that lurkers have understood.

Furthermore you have delivered nothing which would enable "drain layers and hospital cleaners reach for a more felicitous life" because you haven't released the model or adequately explained the methodology.

By all means carry on investing pretend money under the delusion that whatever you term Technical Analysis. I hope that this thread (and its predecessor) has encouraged people who might have been tempted to follow you with their own hard-earned money to think very carefully indeed.
whereas I think * this* and *this* tick just about all of those boxes in exquisite transparent detail ?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 04:19 AM   #96
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
whereas I think * this* and *this* tick just about all of those boxes in exquisite transparent detail ?
I wanna believe you. I will post a thousand dollars to any account you think I should. Then I will be able to see what actually happens to the cash balance.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 05:50 AM   #97
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I wanna believe you. I will post a thousand dollars to any account you think I should. Then I will be able to see what actually happens to the cash balance.
of the ten different systems, Wildfire is the one I will be going live with in another couple of weeks. it uses 1 Skeptica trader and 2 Unobtainium traders.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unob...ldfire/1439014

if you set up a $1000 autotrade account I will configure it with those traders for you if you want, but just at slightly lower trader-leverage settings (because Wildfire is $3000 and set for that)

I should say that these demos also show the slippage on each trade inside the account, in general there is as much positive, as negative, meaning its not a problem, and is already modelled in on these figures, its just that only the account owner can see them.

and these demo accounts are all on FXCM so that is the broker I would also open the autotrade account with.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kevsta; 7th January 2016 at 05:58 AM.
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 06:22 AM   #98
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
of the ten different systems, Wildfire is the one I will be going live with in another couple of weeks. it uses 1 Skeptica trader and 2 Unobtainium traders.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unob...ldfire/1439014

if you set up a $1000 autotrade account I will configure it with those traders for you if you want, but just at slightly lower trader-leverage settings (because Wildfire is $3000 and set for that)

I should say that these demos also show the slippage on each trade inside the account, in general there is as much positive, as negative, meaning its not a problem, and is already modelled in on these figures, its just that only the account owner can see them.

and these demo accounts are all on FXCM so that is the broker I would also open the autotrade account with.
Let me know when and where to post the money. I see no reason to not give details openly on this thread, rather than in pms emails and so on. I will screen capture the account balance each sunday.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 7th January 2016, 06:48 AM   #99
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Let me know when and where to post the money. I see no reason to not give details openly on this thread, rather than in pms emails and so on. I will screen capture the account balance each sunday.
I don't want you to divulge anything about which traders or trader-settings are being used publicly, other than that, no problem.

you need to go here http://www.myfxbook.com/autotrade/open-live-account

and click the FXCM link from there, to link the account to myfxbook when you open it. then open and fund it, at which point I'll configure the system in the site for you.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 04:26 AM   #100
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I don't want you to divulge anything about which traders or trader-settings are being used publicly, other than that, no problem.

you need to go here http://www.myfxbook.com/autotrade/open-live-account

and click the FXCM link from there, to link the account to myfxbook when you open it. then open and fund it, at which point I'll configure the system in the site for you.
I have posted cash balances. I think you should do the same with screen captures. This is a direct means of demonstrating the OP. If you can post cash balances from anyone on one of these systems, you will prove the OP. It seems there is a concerted desire that technical analysis can be circular filed, but this will not happen if you photograph cash, not profit charts.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 08:03 AM   #101
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
you're wasting your time here. who really cares what (a mostly very aged) and infinitesimally insignificant part of the internet thinks?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 01:42 PM   #102
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
you're wasting your time here. who really cares what (a mostly very aged) and infinitesimally insignificant part of the internet thinks?
I agree. The recent post by The Don shows that evidence don't matter. For example I really don't see how I could improve on the apple forecasts, with stops and targets met.
But I will still make specific predictions on the thread for a permanent record in support of the OP. I will endeavour to call the end of this bear market when it happens. This may be helpful to someone. Very helpful.

Last edited by Samson; 8th January 2016 at 02:52 PM.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 03:38 PM   #103
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I agree. The recent post by The Don shows that evidence don't matter. For example I really don't see how I could improve on the apple forecasts, with stops and targets met.
But I will still make specific predictions on the thread for a permanent record in support of the OP. I will endeavour to call the end of this bear market when it happens. This may be helpful to someone. Very helpful.
its always the same, whenever evidence is presented that cannot be disputed, there is never any acknowledgement, (never mind intelligent discussion) just..

__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 04:27 PM   #104
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
its always the same, whenever evidence is presented that cannot be disputed, there is never any acknowledgement, (never mind intelligent discussion) just..

http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-c...Tumbleweed.gif
Yes, sadly true. In 4000 posts there was scant but ridicule hurled my way. When the trial was curtailed early, a circumstance that is impossible except with death in the real world, it would have made sense to tack the time on the end. No, that would never be suggested. When the trial ended with a 35% gain it was officially declared random. There have been a dozen other predictions that were all deadly accurate, and every means possible to dismiss them was employed.
If anyone would like to return to support this style of critical dismissal of serial proof of technical analysis being employed in real time to make predictions of market direction, they should be rigorous with examples from the thread.
But they will not attempt this, because it flies in the face of the facts.
I will take silence as acknowledgement of defeat.

Last edited by Samson; 8th January 2016 at 05:37 PM. Reason: Inserted a comma after market direction. On rereading the sentence was ridiculously long.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 04:41 PM   #105
Maurice Ledifficile
Lost in translation
 
Maurice Ledifficile's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,964
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Yes, sadly true. In 4000 posts there was scant but ridicule hurled my way. When the trial was curtailed early, a circumstance that is impossible except with death in the real world, it would have made sense to tack the time on the end. No, that would never be suggested. When the trial ended with a 35% gain it was officially declared random. There have been a dozen other predictions that were all deadly accurate, and every means possible to dismiss them was employed.
If anyone would like to return to support this style of critical dismissal of serial proof of technical analysis being employed in real time to make predictions of market direction they should be rigorous with examples from the thread.
But they will not attempt this, because it flies in the face of the facts.
I will take silence as acknowledgement of defeat.

__________________
"There is a plenty of proof, but unfortunately it is entirely unprovable." - Punshhh
"There’s a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an idiot." – Stephen Wright
Maurice Ledifficile is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 04:56 PM   #106
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by Maurice Ledifficile View Post
And happy new year to you Maurice. I find your analysis less than comprehensive, but at least I know someone is still reading....
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 05:25 PM   #107
Fast Eddie B
Illuminator
 
Fast Eddie B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Mineral Bluff, GA
Posts: 4,508
I'm still reading.

Then again, I can't help gawking at car wrecks, either.
__________________
“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that...I will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” - President Donald J. Trump, January 20, 2017.
"And it's, frankly, disgusting the way the press is able to write whatever they want to write. And people should look into it." - President Donald J. Trump, October 11, 2017.
Fast Eddie B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th January 2016, 05:51 PM   #108
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
I'm still reading.

Then again, I can't help gawking at car wrecks, either.
And happy new year to you Fast Eddie. I find your analysis less than comprehensive as well.
It is by no means too late to hedge. I would not want anyone to think I like this bear market, I am locked in like most people.
I see a chance of real downside monday, and shorting the pre market is sane strategy. What concerns me is I expect to be taken seriously by now, yet newcomers to the thread would read anyone but kevsta and conclude I must be a raving lunatic. This is grossly unjust on a forum of this one's purport.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2016, 03:45 AM   #109
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I see a chance of real downside monday
not a difficult conclusion to draw. ugly ugly weekly downbar, bigger than the Friday before the August Black Monday, and the biggest weekly drop, points-wise, ever. the last weeks selling was different to August though, that was more panicky and "crash-like" whereas last week was just steady pervasive selling with regular little bounces, that everybody sold into again.

I think we get something like this, however the indicated movement drawn could happen in the course of a day or a single week, leaving a single red downwards. my take profit is at 1865.



EDIT:

just to say that it's quite a turnaround from having Fed members taking turns to "stick-save" the market with comments and speeches the last couple of years every time it swooned, we now have ex-Fed members throwing each other under the bus instead, and admitting what every switched on trader has known for years, namely:

Quote:
"that we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in March 2009"

"an enormous rally to facilitate a wealth effect"

"its all the Fed the Fed the Fed, the ECB, the BOJ..."

"values are very richly priced"

"the enormous gains the Fed engineered"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnIYZiWlaUY

lol.

so I dont see any floor here really until at least the previous highs at around 1500, which is also exactly what the technicals have been suggesting the whole way through.



at 1500 the Fed Panics and we get QE4, followed by a little rally and then full on collapse as the Dollar fails instead?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kevsta; 9th January 2016 at 04:39 AM.
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th January 2016, 05:44 AM   #110
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
not a difficult conclusion to draw. ugly ugly weekly downbar, bigger than the Friday before the August Black Monday, and the biggest weekly drop, points-wise, ever. the last weeks selling was different to August though, that was more panicky and "crash-like" whereas last week was just steady pervasive selling with regular little bounces, that everybody sold into again.

I think we get something like this, however the indicated movement drawn could happen in the course of a day or a single week, leaving a single red downwards. my take profit is at 1865.



EDIT:

just to say that it's quite a turnaround from having Fed members taking turns to "stick-save" the market with comments and speeches the last couple of years every time it swooned, we now have ex-Fed members throwing each other under the bus instead, and admitting what every switched on trader has known for years, namely:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnIYZiWlaUY

lol.

so I dont see any floor here really until at least the previous highs at around 1500, which is also exactly what the technicals have been suggesting the whole way through.



at 1500 the Fed Panics and we get QE4, followed by a little rally and then full on collapse as the Dollar fails instead?
My dow target for monday is minimum 16000 and max 15500.

Your 1500 target is a 30% correction, which is roughly standard operating procedure in share markets. That is what I see for the dax. One thing for sure is the bottom will be characterised by the usual patterns.

Last edited by Samson; 9th January 2016 at 05:57 AM.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2016, 10:50 AM   #111
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
 
psionl0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 11,471
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
its always the same, whenever evidence is presented that cannot be disputed, there is never any acknowledgement, (never mind intelligent discussion) just..

http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-c...Tumbleweed.gif
Yes, I don't comment too often on these posts. I know that by being silent, I run the risk that you might think I am a fool but I am reluctant to speak out and remove all doubt.

FWIW, if I could replicate the Skeptica growth funds on the Plus500 trading site, I might be tempted to gamble some real money on it. I suspect however that it would be a 33/7 job.
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975
psionl0 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2016, 01:22 PM   #112
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Yes, I don't comment too often on these posts. I know that by being silent, I run the risk that you might think I am a fool but I am reluctant to speak out and remove all doubt.
you never even crossed my mind while writing this amigo, I'm thinking of the more vocal and opinionated critics earlier on, who have all gone strangely quiet. At least Eddie formally withdrew, the rest just skulked back to lurking instead of discussing kidneys.

with you, I am pretty confident that a) you will have gone off and studied the account stats, and b) you weren't trying to apply your years of "market wisdom" to a technical trading thread in the first place.

Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
FWIW, if I could replicate the Skeptica growth funds on the Plus500 trading site, I might be tempted to gamble some real money on it. I suspect however that it would be a 33/7 job.
Skeptica is doing OK, but I really think I may have found the sweet spot with (especially one in particular of) the Unobtainium accounts

this one http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unob...ldfire/1439014



I'll give you the myfxbook account link to the live one when it starts and you can watch it from birth.
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kevsta; 10th January 2016 at 02:37 PM.
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2016, 02:15 PM   #113
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Ok so about time for another update.

So Skeptica ran into some difficulties coming into Xmas and drew down a bit, and as I had turned up the leverage on most of them (not growth or II) the drawdowns were comparatively larger than the wins until that point had been. But the trading systems managed to turn it around again over a couple of weeks and the funds are about back to where they were about 3 weeks ago. Not terrible, but not utterly awesome either.



awesome enough really though I suppose, as anybody taking ill-advised pair trades based upon the perceived fundamental fallacy that is TA, combined with the unstoppable prowess of the S&P500, is about -$15000 currently.

and anybody selling Apple at $120 and putting it into the LordOfTheAlgos VS 120AAPL fund would be currently +32% up and at $96.96 currently, able to buy back in at 1155 shares, from the original 833.


Unobtainium on the other hand is looking very promising indeed. the accounts stumbled slightly with Skeptica but then turned around fast and carried on climbing.

all five are now grouped between +25.5-36.3% and all five have now overtaken everything in Skeptica apart from Skeptica Growth, within five weeks.



My Stocks portfolio is looking a bit sad though. were it not for the fact that I correctly identified Walmart as being a decent buy at $57 on 30th October it would be a bit of a bloodbath.



and with Stock-Slayer getting on with it's job nicely, high-tech TA has now outperformed "Buy & Hold" by +43.1% in 5 trading weeks.

FYI there are now in effect six separate trading systems here, as Skeptica is the same trade set, through different amplification (leverage, base account size) but Unobtainium has 5 unique combinations of traders and settings.

both accounts also now have systems approaching 500 trades (Skeptica II & Stock Slayer) at 69% and 73% win rates.

so is any of this better than random chance yet?
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

Last edited by kevsta; 10th January 2016 at 02:22 PM.
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th January 2016, 03:28 PM   #114
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
heres me moaning about not getting any kind of intelligent participation and I missed this gem of a question in the last thread..

my apologies Ladewig.

Originally Posted by kevsta
ok, assuming it does what it says on the box, therefore it should have a tick for tick (following) correlation to the USD Index, which is a weighted basket of currencies against the dollar because......?

edit. I have other questions about the way this works too. everybody knows you can trade this index alone right? so if you dropped a huge amount of contracts for sale and smashed the price down, how do the stocks contained therein, then get their own losses apportioned?
Originally Posted by Ladewig
I, too, must be missing something because my first question is How many contracts would one have to drop to make price swings on an underlying asset measured in the trillions?
very interesting question, and surprisingly enough, not that many really, especially if you did it in Futures, outside main market hours.

you can smash it around like a rag doll if you have sufficient resources, which some people/companies clearly do

10k contracts is enough to flashcrash the market if you time it right

Nanex believe one errant algo can do it

http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/3410.html

Quote:
Nanex ~ 20-Dec-2012 ~ Fiscal Cliff
On December 20, 2012, there was an Event in the EMini futures at 20:18:40 ET. The data exhibits many hallmarks of a HFT (High Frequency Trader) market maker absorbing sell orders up to their limit, and then turning around and dumping those contracts as fast as possible. Exactly what happened in the Flash Crash on May 6, 2010 (this documentary on youtube has a great explanation)
so anyway, there is no doubt that it can be done, and outside of US stock market hours, while US stocks are closed, in pre-market, after-market, and main hours.

then the cash S&P opens at the Futures price, along with the stocks themselves which have yet to trade to catch up with their losses?

so again, how are the implied individual stock losses implied from the S&P index loss overnight, then apportioned?

clue: basically made up nonsense along the lines of the Fed's economic models, IMO
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th January 2016, 12:06 AM   #115
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
 
psionl0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 11,471
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I'm thinking of the more vocal and opinionated critics earlier on, who have all gone strangely quiet.
I know that gravity sucks and all but being bothered about personifications of Newton's third law is the sort of stuff that thin skins are made out of.
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975
psionl0 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th January 2016, 01:15 AM   #116
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I know that gravity sucks and all but being bothered about personifications of Newton's third law is the sort of stuff that thin skins are made out of.
gravity? personifications of Bert & Ernie is more like it
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th January 2016, 02:58 AM   #117
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
 
psionl0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 11,471
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
gravity? personifications of Bert & Ernie is more like it
I did it! I confused you this time.
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975
psionl0 is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th January 2016, 04:33 AM   #118
kevsta
RBL CHeck Failed
 
kevsta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,016
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I did it! I confused you this time.
haha I am often easily confused and would never deny it
__________________
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous
kevsta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 14th January 2016, 12:03 AM   #119
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 7,337
The technical picture looks pretty reasonable here for a few days, a little light buying of stocks seems sensible if anyone feels underexposed.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 14th January 2016, 12:27 AM   #120
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Cymru
Posts: 22,630
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The technical picture looks pretty reasonable here for a few days, a little light buying of stocks seems sensible if anyone feels underexposed.
As opposed to a "90% chance of a drop of 30%" ? It's almost as if you're making it up as you go along
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Economics, Business and Finance

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:56 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2014, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.
This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.