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Old 27th January 2016, 12:20 AM   #161
psionl0
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I would stop worrying about what "people want to do" seriously, nobody else is going to act on anything said here.
Just as well. You wouldn't want me to jinx you by putting (real) money on your tips.
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Old 27th January 2016, 01:39 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I'm sticking to evil short-selling speculation, making money out of other people's misery etc..

and if you only want to call rallies, maybe focus on this for a while

http://www.proshares.com/funds/spxu.html



plus dude, I would stop worrying about what "people want to do" seriously, nobody else is going to act on anything said here.
I am not sure you realise how ridiculous that statement sounds though it may be true.
Maybe marplots bought apple maybe not. I hope he did, and shorted it, and hedged his pension fund at the top and so on. But you are almost certainly right, no one in these parts will be fooled into making easy money....
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Old 27th January 2016, 01:44 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
no one in these parts will be fooled into making easy money....
...least of all the person doing the fooling.
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Old 27th January 2016, 01:47 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
...least of all the person doing the fooling.
Even better, the profit can be your's alone.
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Old 27th January 2016, 02:37 AM   #165
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Going back a bit, I suggested everyone buy Bluescope Steel. They hit a nine month closing high today. I put the idea about down under, so maybe I will check on who bought and so on.

I already know the answer....
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Old 27th January 2016, 02:46 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Going back a bit, I suggested everyone buy Bluescope Steel. They hit a nine month closing high today. I put the idea about down under, so maybe I will check on who bought and so on.

I already know the answer....
How much were you in for?
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Old 27th January 2016, 02:59 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Just as well. You wouldn't want me to jinx you by putting (real) money on your tips.
I am not giving tips, my knowledge is for my use alone ..and the thought that anybody might seriously financially act on "something posted on the internet" is pretty unlikely anyway.. ..people's financial planning tends to move at a more geological pace.

Samson you told me to "just buy" it at 1900 the other day. We spent 2 days going 30-pts the wrong way to get back to here.

..meanwhile I should have closed my shorts at those 30pts, rather than getting stopped out at zero again.

Im still not convinced that's the bottom finished with here, the Indices are basically tracking USDJPY between 118.9 down to 116.00 (the recent market lows) and I think that's probably still heading lower on the longer term timescales.

EDIT. here's the USDJPY outlook that paints it's lines all over your indices and portfolios. if (when) the red uptrend line fails here it's wheeee-time again. if it goes here on this 4 hour bar and fires the building squeeze downwards, well I hope you're using stoplosses Samson.. to be fair it could fire upwards too, but we look extended upwards already against the long-term trend, so down is more likely IMO.



on the big picture we are due a mechanical re-testing of the green area here, equates to S&P at around 16-1700.


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Last edited by kevsta; 27th January 2016 at 03:28 AM.
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Old 27th January 2016, 03:06 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
How much were you in for?
Metaphysical credibility. How much stock did you purchase?

I have repeatedly suggested what I do is irrelevant. What CNBC tipster quantified any thing? I bet you both arms my audit trail wipes the floor with those dudes. Heh anyone can trawl the thread to check.

Last edited by Samson; 27th January 2016 at 03:28 AM.
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Old 27th January 2016, 03:18 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Metaphysical credibility. How much stock did you purchase?

I have repeatedly suggested what I do is irrelevant. What CNBC tipster quantified any thing. I bet you both arms my audit trail wipes the floor with those dudes. Heh anyone can trawl the thread to check.
I have no problem with someone putting their credibility as opposed to their money on the line. However on that basis it seems to me that you have nothing to lose. I do.

Last edited by Lothian; 27th January 2016 at 03:19 AM.
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Old 27th January 2016, 03:29 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I am not giving tips, my knowledge is for my use alone
Sorry, poor choice of words.

Just imagine how shot your analysis would be if I invested in the Skeptica funds. ( )
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Old 27th January 2016, 03:46 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Sorry, poor choice of words.

Just imagine how shot your analysis would be if I invested in the Skeptica funds. ( )
haha. well, to be fair, they're not actually doing that bad, considering we had a blown up trader too? worst case scenario 2 accounts are back to around 100% again, with the other 3 between +14 and +30.

fairly clear to see which 2 accounts didn't have him on it, isn't it?



but do you think many pro 2 & 20% hedge funds could beat that on aggregate in Q1 from start? I doubt it.

and how many could match this in 2 months? only stock-slayer has blow-up man assigned.

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Old 27th January 2016, 04:29 AM   #172
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AALP predictions update

Originally Posted by kevsta View Post

Every momentum algo and trader in the world will be selling this for a while now, if I personally (still) owned a significant amount of this I would be looking at taking some sort of downside protection from the top of the next poke up, it may get past $100 again before the next downdraft.

I think we touch $92, bounce from there to 100ish and I will be looking to short it from the top of it's channel again.



On the monthly chart, if we close January (bar is only 2 weeks into the month) below 97.85, then IMO we are visiting the green oval area over the coming months.



Well, it did indeed manage to just breach $100 for a couple of days, but we are currently trading at 96.30 on the pre-market

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket-chart

which if we open here, means this hourly squeeze has already fired south. if that extends and we close the month below 97.85 as above, then only the Fed can rescue it now..

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Old 27th January 2016, 05:21 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
Well, it did indeed manage to just breach $100 for a couple of days, but we are currently trading at 96.30 on the pre-market

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket-chart

which if we open here, means this hourly squeeze has already fired south. if that extends and we close the month below 97.85 as above, then only the Fed can rescue it now..

You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless. I could explain it a few ways, but I am happy to put this prediction on thread here.
Gentlemen place your bets as they say.
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Old 27th January 2016, 05:32 AM   #174
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless. I could explain it a few ways, but I am happy to put this prediction on thread here.
Gentlemen place your bets as they say.
I would be interested in the hows and whys of your opinions. the algo has not predicted this has it? I don't think you really trade much based on the algo, do you?

and with AAPL down from 138 to 100 (to 95.8x at last look today) why exactly would you pronounce it over? ..after a 7 year bull run the bear will be over in a few months will it? ..interesting..

the Federal Open Mouth Committee can possibly re-launch another bull run, for a little while at least, otherwise you are nowhere near bearish enough, IMO
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Old 27th January 2016, 06:21 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I would be interested in the hows and whys of your opinions. the algo has not predicted this has it? I don't think you really trade much based on the algo, do you?

and with AAPL down from 138 to 100 (to 95.8x at last look today) why exactly would you pronounce it over? ..after a 7 year bull run the bear will be over in a few months will it? ..interesting..

the Federal Open Mouth Committee can possibly re-launch another bull run, for a little while at least, otherwise you are nowhere near bearish enough, IMO
AFAIK Samson doesn't trade at all.

It's difficult to say what the pretend trades and predictions are based on but he likes to try to keep 'em vague AND where possible have contradictory "predictions" in play at the same time for example.....

Quote:
You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless.
So if the market starts to recover - Samson is right BUT if it continues to drop, he's also right because the underlying bearishness was correct (or alternatively he can come back in a few months and claim success because the market has finally dragged itself back up to the price at which he produced the "prediction"
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Old 27th January 2016, 06:39 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
AFAIK Samson doesn't trade at all.
I think he is now though on a small live account.

and wrt to the duality of trading predictions, its unfortunately kind of inherent in the way the market moves to get where its going.

you'll note my ongoing chart predictions dont really focus too far ahead of the most probable next 2 likely liquidity points (on whatever timeframe) based upon current channel behaviours.

a skilled trader with this information (say my AAPL predictions over the last few weeks) would be able to make good money from each move. the rest of us do what we can lol.
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Old 27th January 2016, 09:48 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I think he is now though on a small live account.

and wrt to the duality of trading predictions, its unfortunately kind of inherent in the way the market moves to get where its going.

you'll note my ongoing chart predictions dont really focus too far ahead of the most probable next 2 likely liquidity points (on whatever timeframe) based upon current channel behaviours.

a skilled trader with this information (say my AAPL predictions over the last few weeks) would be able to make good money from each move. the rest of us do what we can lol.
Idle speculation. I said I don't trade physical stocks, and opened an account for this thread. Outside of that I have never commented. I hope you are all long snp
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Old 27th January 2016, 10:07 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Idle speculation. I said I don't trade physical stocks, and opened an account for this thread. Outside of that I have never commented. I hope you are all long snp
I'm not but it looks like I probably should have been, USDJPY breaking out upwards, along with oil too.

there could be a massive reversal again on Fed minutes in (T-1hr 53mins) but otherwise prob 1925 to 1950 ish I'll be hitting it again
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Old 27th January 2016, 10:22 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I'm not but it looks like I probably should have been, USDJPY breaking out upwards, along with oil too.

there could be a massive reversal again on Fed minutes in (T-1hr 53mins) but otherwise prob 1925 to 1950 ish I'll be hitting it again
I expect that 1950, and agree it should turn turtle there. I was unaware of the fed, maybe I should square up beforehand.
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Old 27th January 2016, 10:37 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I expect that 1950, and agree it should turn turtle there. I was unaware of the fed, maybe I should square up beforehand.
I wouldnt actually be that surprised to see a reversal, things often run the wrong way aggressively up until the news.

however the consensus seems to be a rally now and all the charts look strong currently so if we get a big spike up to 1925ish and re-trace I may well be shorting again today. Im not really interested in the upwards points from here.
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Last edited by kevsta; 27th January 2016 at 10:38 AM.
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Old 27th January 2016, 01:08 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I wouldnt actually be that surprised to see a reversal, things often run the wrong way aggressively up until the news.

however the consensus seems to be a rally now and all the charts look strong currently so if we get a big spike up to 1925ish and re-trace I may well be shorting again today. Im not really interested in the upwards points from here.
heh. ..well it didnt really spike up much but USDJPY looked like a definite reversal, so I hit the sell button quite a bit.

I hope everybody (else) is short the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow & the Nikkei, and long gold too lol. or had stoplosses at minimum anyway

EDIT. Apple also sitting at 93.90 again, if the floor goes there, well so goes the Nasdaq.
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Last edited by kevsta; 27th January 2016 at 01:09 PM.
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Old 27th January 2016, 02:16 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
heh. ..well it didnt really spike up much but USDJPY looked like a definite reversal, so I hit the sell button quite a bit.

I hope everybody (else) is short the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow & the Nikkei, and long gold too lol. or had stoplosses at minimum anyway

EDIT. Apple also sitting at 93.90 again, if the floor goes there, well so goes the Nasdaq.
I squared up at 1910 before the fed, taking 20 points profit from the 1890. Yes the Nasdaq looks a great short here
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Old 28th January 2016, 04:06 AM   #183
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interesting.. there appears to be some sort of glitch in the Matrix today, since about 2 hours ago the lockstep correlation of USDJPY & Indices (all of them) has broken down.

since 10am or so my time, oil and USDJPY have been moving up, while indices have been moving down. ..it's almost as though there's actually some underlying fundamental selling at work or something.. wierd.
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Old 28th January 2016, 10:34 AM   #184
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TSLA - blast from the past

Quote:
11th October 2015, 09:24 AM #2907
kevsta

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Tesla

Tesla is interesting at the moment. on the big picture the price is at a big decision point, resting on a long term primary trendline. if that fails, the move downwards will be significant, first stop 180, and some mean reversion towards the blue 200ma is then very likely in that case.


three and a half months ago I drew that line there at $184.32 as the next liquity level if that multi-year trendline failed, and foretold this? I think it seems relatively certain to test the 200ema at $170ish now, with the usual bounce first.

certain people were also confident that better entry points than $255 couldn't be predicted in advance under any circumstances if I remember correctly.

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Old 28th January 2016, 07:09 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-c...16/01/1865.png

the next liquidity levels are 1846 1824 and 1811, and I don't think we are done probing the downside yet. possibly not by a long way..
Aren't you concerned about that red part, especially when it tends to happen immediately before the green part? I smell insider trading.
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Old 29th January 2016, 12:36 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Aren't you concerned about that red part, especially when it tends to happen immediately before the green part? I smell insider trading.
Buy and hold I always say.
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Old 29th January 2016, 03:23 PM   #187
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I suggest buying oil any way one can. It will hit $45 in february, a very strong iteration of the simple algorithm. The snp will get that 1950 within a day or 2. Last 1938. Closed the upper half of the range for january, that may surprise a few people. Remember I called the end of the bear market.

You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless. I could explain it a few ways, but I am happy to put this prediction on thread here.
Gentlemen place your bets as they say.


January 27 posted. I am actually curious if I got that right. I guess we need new highs before january low gets taken out.
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Old 29th January 2016, 03:34 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
[i]You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means).
Not here. There is only you repeatedly telling us that is what you have been called.

So where have you been called it, given your confession that you lack confidence in your system to risk your own money?


Edited to add

Consummate means to make (a marriage or relationship) complete by having sexual intercourse.
I presume you know a bear is is an animal.

I think they are calling you a pervert. I would just ignore them.

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Old 29th January 2016, 03:36 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I suggest buying oil any way one can. It will hit $45 in february
Very well. My car needs an oil change.

eta: Just noticed you set a time limit. Bravo.

Last edited by GlennB; 29th January 2016 at 03:54 PM.
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Old 30th January 2016, 07:06 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I suggest buying oil any way one can. It will hit $45 in february, a very strong iteration of the simple algorithm. The snp will get that 1950 within a day or 2. Last 1938. Closed the upper half of the range for january, that may surprise a few people. Remember I called the end of the bear market.

You know kevsta, I have sometimes been called the consummate bear (whatever that means). My view is that the bear market is over nevertheless. I could explain it a few ways, but I am happy to put this prediction on thread here.
Gentlemen place your bets as they say.


January 27 posted. I am actually curious if I got that right. I guess we need new highs before january low gets taken out.
yea, I was wrong again, stick-saved by Central Planners once more.. This is interesting timing from a long term perspective, because the Nikkei was just testing (and failing at) the underside of the multi-year (20 odd) downtrend line that is just under 17k now. Im sure this has nothing to do with their reasoning though

USDPY spiked 250+ pips (at 4am my time) prompting a 1000pt round trip Nikkei move, but barely 20 S&P pts at the same time, and which had semi re-traced again by lunchtime anyway, but once the NY bull-tards arrived they somehow managed to pop the US indices out of their downtrends eight hours later, independent of USDJPY and oil, which at times were both heading down while US indices rallied.

those USDJPY Bollinger squeezes I posted above fired upwards in the middle of the night as Japanese CTL+P ers flapped their lips, but the effect seemed very muted on US stocks, and as I posted above, the lockstep correlation is seemingly slipping, at times anyway, and with oil too.



I think the market is going to fade (bet against) the BOJ as there was no moar new money-printing agreed-to, and that USDJPY and oil are currently taking out the short stops above before rolling over once again.

and that when they do, US indices will once again follow. meanwhile the drift up should reach 200ema level (minimum) at around 1950ish
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Old 30th January 2016, 07:37 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Remember I called the end of the bear market.
Samson you never answered my question about this? based on what? and what, the end as in new all time highs coming?

or the end of this push down, a dead cat bounce before the next downdraft?

this is not the algo talking is it? please explain exactly what you mean, and how you come to those conclusions?

Scotiabank seem to agree with me

Quote:
Via Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann,

By surprising markets with a move to a negative deposit rate, the Bank of Japan gave investors temporary reprieve, providing a much needed opportunity to pare portfolio risk at better prices. Unfortunately, the improvement in financial asset prices will be short-lived; except, of course, for long-maturity Treasuries.

As I wrote on January 4th,
Quote:
“Investors should be careful not underestimating just how far long-maturity Treasury yields can fall”. These conditions still exist.
The BoJ action to drop its deposit rate from 0% to -0.10% will likely prove to be more symbolic than impactful. However, it is understandable why the BoJ wanted to take action. In January, the TOPIX was down 10% and the traded-weighted Yen appreciated by 3.5%. Currency strength and the fall in oil prices conspired to push Japan’s preferred inflation measure back into deflation. However, if Japan (which only strips out food) stripped out energy from its measure (like other countries do), then its inflation measure would be above 1%.

The BoJ issued a highly informative and clear 4-page explanation of its action (China could use this clarity as an example of effective communication). It introduced a three-tiered system for rates, similar to that used in some European countries. The BoJ made it clear that the negative rate is not applied to outstanding balances of current accounts, but rather applied only to marginal increases in current account balances.

Since the money base is growing at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen, outstanding balances of current accounts will increase on an aggregate basis. However, in order to limit harm to earnings of financial institutions from the negative deposit rate, the BoJ will increase the tier thresholds accordingly. In other words, the current balance to which thezero interest rate will be applied will increase, so that the threshold to which a negative interest is applied “will remain at adequate levels”.

When a central bank hits the 0% lower bound in rates, the impact of any further unconventional easing actions is felt via a weaker currency. Therefore, the diverging policy actions between the hiking Fed and the easing BOJ and ECB, means that the upward pressure on the USD versus the Euro and Yen will continue. The effect of a stronger dollar iscounter to the perceived and kneejerk market euphoria that arose today; and which seem to arise during easing actions. A stronger USD will act like a magnet for global deflationary forces. Investors beware.

A strengthening USD has numerous consequences. The Yuan‘s peg to the USD has certainly damaged China’s competitiveness. The trade-weighted Yuan has dropped by over 25% during the past three years. Moreover, Chinese wages have risen considerably in the past decade, further lowering their competitiveness. China is no longer viewed as the world’s low-cost producer. China is currently trying to find the tricky balance between finding new sources of growth, remaining competitive, stabilizing financial markets, and limiting capital flight.

The move by the BoJ makes this balance more difficult. It increases the pressure on China to devalue its currency further. However, with China’s rise as the world’s second largest economy and its acceptance into the IMF SDR basket, its global responsibility has escalated accordingly. Currency devaluation by China (or by Japan for that matter) steals growth from the rest of the world; such action is clearly non-beneficial to US risk assets.

A strengthening US dollar has already damaged US corporate earnings - around 50% of S&P 500 earning comes from overseas (and global trade has dropped ominously).
China will devalue again, larger than in August, and unless the Fed reverse, the bear is only just sitting up rubbing his eyes after an extra-long hybernation, caused by drip-Fed tranquilisers for seven years.

..and Boy is he gonna be pissed once he's properly awake and feels that headache..
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Old 30th January 2016, 11:51 AM   #192
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I called the end of the bear market for a few technical reasons, but I will point out something odd. Since I have been universally derided on the thread, and if it is not universal, I can only think of marplots being open minded, I am bound to do a few I told you so posts now.

On dec 9 I posted

If it is any help to anyone, all technical indicators suggest hedging physical shares with derivatives. At least partially. I believe there is a chance of a 20% drop in all global stock markets.

The dow closed at 17490 that day.
Since then it had a closing low of 15776 on jan 20, a decline of 9.8%.
Yet on that day I heard several people forecasting another 10% decline on CNBC.

I was seeing something different. The reason I don't buy and hold stocks on my own account is because I see these down draughts coming, and I don't want to be conflicted. I am locked into other things like most people, and that is enough.
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Old 30th January 2016, 01:59 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I called the end of the bear market for a few technical reasons..
expand please.
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Old 30th January 2016, 03:32 PM   #194
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
expand please.
In simple terms the daily algo went long.

In fact there have been 20% plus declines in most European indices, but not in the three American,

Intraday highs to lows between september and now

Nasdaq 15.7%
Dow 14%
Snp 14.4%

Therefore if 20% is the convention, I was overstepping to call a bear market, though in the past 15% was the standard

Of course these numbers are arbitrary and essentially irrelevant.

Daily algo reversals are very hard to deny, so an extensive rally here has simple statistical high probability.
I would rather focus on what is happening for a week or two than the year ahead.
This does not mean I won't see a rally fizzle and turn bearish again, but I lean towards wide swings for a period of a few months.
Yet Apple for example looks bleak technically, and doesn't that make sense when profits rely on people replacing phones every 5 minutes?
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Old 31st January 2016, 01:02 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
In simple terms the daily algo went long.

In fact there have been 20% plus declines in most European indices, but not in the three American,

Intraday highs to lows between september and now

Nasdaq 15.7%
Dow 14%
Snp 14.4%

Therefore if 20% is the convention, I was overstepping to call a bear market, though in the past 15% was the standard

Of course these numbers are arbitrary and essentially irrelevant.
this is the point really. "technically" -20% is the convention so none of the US indices are technically in Bear markets. ..however as a Bear always starts out as a "correction" and if the 7year bull market does not quickly resume (with new highs) then if the bull market isnt continuing, that only leaves the opposite.

but global stocks are already in Bear markets
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/msci-...ar-market.html

with major 2009-onwards trendlines all failed

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Daily algo reversals are very hard to deny, so an extensive rally here has simple statistical high probability.
define "extensive" and "high" ? another 20 points and 80% probability of such? ..we had an 80:20 probability statement fail once before, did we not?

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I would rather focus on what is happening for a week or two than the year ahead.
as a day-trader of course. even a day or 2 rather than the week ahead

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
This does not mean I won't see a rally fizzle and turn bearish again, but I lean towards wide swings for a period of a few months.
Flip, Flop, Flip? I am just trying to understand how/why you are coming to these decisions. You said "the Daily Algo" ? meaning the Algo, on a daily chart said "Buy"?

what about if on the weekly it's on sell, and the 4 hr is on a sell? hourly is sell and 15min is buy? how does it work then?

ultimately though it is not the day to day moves that really interest me. I want to catch and run trades for months.

the big question is are we (stocks) in accumulation (no) or distribution (yes)
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Old 31st January 2016, 01:37 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Yet Apple for example looks bleak technically, and doesn't that make sense when profits rely on people replacing phones every 5 minutes?
the Apple bubble is bursting now IMO.

interesting behaviour once again at and around lines and predictions I drew on charts in October/Nov 2015 too, huh?

after the professionals were briefly unloading at $100+ (green oval) this time we did touch 92.85 at which point (orange oval) the price took the stops out below there and reversed hard again for another bounce, but which did not close out the month above 97.85



so I think this is coming back into the $80s during 2016. $70-75 would seem about fair, once all the QE bubble has deflated out again
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Old 31st January 2016, 07:57 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post

On dec 9 I posted

If it is any help to anyone, all technical indicators suggest hedging physical shares with derivatives. At least partially. I believe there is a chance of a 20% drop in all global stock markets.

The dow closed at 17490 that day.
Since then it had a closing low of 15776 on jan 20, a decline of 9.8%.
Yet on that day I heard several people forecasting another 10% decline on CNBC.
Credit for admitting your abject failures.
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Old 31st January 2016, 09:14 AM   #198
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December 9, 2015

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I believe there is a chance of a 20% drop in all global stock markets.
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
There is.

There is also the possibility of a 30% drop. And a 5% gain. And a 9% drop. And a 60% gain. And all points in between.
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
True but I have just made a testable prediction.
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
No. Your claim is not testable because you gave no time frame.
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Before the end of january.
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Which market(s)?
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Which global stock markets? All of them I guess.
January 31, 2016

Let's review:

DJIA
Dec 9,2015: 17,492.30
Jan 29, 2016: 16,466.30

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.87%

Result: FAIL

S&P 500
Dec 9,2015: 2,047.62
Jan 29, 2016: 1,940.24

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.24%

Result: FAIL

Russell 2000
Dec 9,2015: 1,145.87
Jan 29, 2016: 1,035.38

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -9.64%

Result: FAIL

Wilshire 5000
Dec 9,2015: 21,208.78
Jan 29, 2016: 19,926.10

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -6.05%

Result: FAIL

FTSE
Dec 9,2015: 6,126.70
Jan 29, 2016: 6,083.80

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -0.70%

Result: FAIL

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I have made a number of predictions, most correct.
You may want to find a different hobby.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I live by the pen. I made a call.
I hope it is wrong but there it is.
"Hope" was about the only chance you had.

The "tl;dr" summary:

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Old 31st January 2016, 11:37 AM   #199
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Superficial. I will post the graphics december 9 onwards when I have time. A picture paints a thousand words.
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Old 1st February 2016, 06:58 AM   #200
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Superficial. I will post the graphics december 9 onwards when I have time. A picture paints a thousand words.
Good. We can laugh at that too!
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