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Old 1st February 2016, 08:42 AM   #201
Samson
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Good. We can laugh at that too!
OK
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Nasdaq december 9.jpg (83.1 KB, 14 views)
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Old 1st February 2016, 09:25 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
OK
hmm. looks like a buy signal at 4600?
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Old 1st February 2016, 09:41 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
OK
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Old 1st February 2016, 02:09 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
hmm. looks like a buy signal at 4600?
That was the market on december 9 when I called the 20% decline, a response to scrutiniser. I don't see anything particularly hilarious aout it. That was when everyone could go short for the january decline if they followed my advice.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 12:39 AM   #205
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
That was the market on december 9 when I called the 20% decline, a response to scrutiniser. I don't see anything particularly hilarious aout it. That was when everyone could go short for the january decline if they followed my advice.
How much would I have gained if I followed your advice and sold a future of the market at the Dec 9th price minus 20% at the end of Jan?
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Old 2nd February 2016, 02:04 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
How much would I have gained if I followed your advice and sold a future of the market at the Dec 9th price minus 20% at the end of Jan?
close 4621.57 december 9.
close 4273.75 january 29

(4621-4273)*20 = $6960 US profit
deposit for 1 mini nasdaq maybe 5 to 6k.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 05:00 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
close 4621.57 december 9.
close 4273.75 january 29

(4621-4273)*20 = $6960 US profit
deposit for 1 mini nasdaq maybe 5 to 6k.
December 9th close 4621.57.

You predicted a 20% fall. So I would sell a future at 3697.25 (4621.57 x 80%)

I would then buy that back at the end of Jan for 4272.75.

A loss of 13.45% of my investment.

Great prediction!!
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Old 2nd February 2016, 05:20 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
December 9th close 4621.57.

You predicted a 20% fall. So I would sell a future at 3697.25 (4621.57 x 80%)

I would then buy that back at the end of Jan for 4272.75.

A loss of 13.45% of my investment.

Great prediction!!
I will leave it to kevsta to comment. Of course you have it quite wrong, my figures are precise other than the initial deposit.

I am starting a treatise based on this thread. There is generally no goodwill discernable anywhere in 5000 posts. Outside of kevsta.

I have no idea what is going on.

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Old 2nd February 2016, 05:38 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I will leave it to kevsta to comment. Of course you have it quite wrong, my figures are precise other than the initial deposit.
Hopefully your figures are more accurate than your predictions! You remember your prediction, don't you? "All world markets down 20%".

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am starting a treatise based on this thread. There is generally no goodwill discernable anywhere in 5000 posts. Outside of kevsta.
Laughter is goodwill.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I have no idea what is going on.
I do.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 06:26 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
December 9th close 4621.57.

You predicted a 20% fall. So I would sell a future at 3697.25 (4621.57 x 80%)

I would then buy that back at the end of Jan for 4272.75.

A loss of 13.45% of my investment.

Great prediction!!
no, Samson is correct, misunderstanding at play here. you would sell it at 4621 following the prediction, and buy it back at end Jan's price for 349 points less.

obviously 349 points does not equal 20% of 4621 though.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 06:42 AM   #211
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Samson are you short again yet?

I dont think this has got much more steam left in it now
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Old 2nd February 2016, 07:38 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am starting a treatise based on this thread. There is generally no goodwill discernable anywhere in 5000 posts. Outside of kevsta.
I'll believe it when I see the treatise but regarding good will, as ye sow so shall ye reap

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I have no idea what is going on.
Anyone claiming otherwise is fooling themselves and/or others.....
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Old 2nd February 2016, 08:16 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'll believe it when I see the treatise but regarding good will, as ye sow so shall ye reap
whats a treatise?

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Anyone claiming otherwise is fooling themselves and/or others.....
lol. I was considering pointing out that's quite an admission this far into the thread (but refrained)
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Old 2nd February 2016, 01:11 PM   #214
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When I say I have no idea what is going on, of course I am referring to the incivility that was referred to be a mod recently. I am contemplating what the motivation would be. I have no need for this sort of adversarial posting. As kevsta confirms, Lothian made a post that referred nowhere to facts, and yet was triumphant in tone, as though he had just proved something..

Instead of saying yes there was a significant decline, the fact it was not exactly 20% was seized on. In fact I said 20% then was asked by when, and suggested end of january. I suggest you all forget this thread and get your trading ideas from CNBC.

Now I am waiting to be told my upside target for the recent rally appears to have been missed by 3 points, it got to 1946.87, so the prediction was worthless.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 01:17 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
Samson are you short again yet?

I dont think this has got much more steam left in it now
Steam which way? This looks to be a buying opportunity on the close.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 01:45 PM   #216
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
When I say I have no idea what is going on, of course I am referring to the incivility that was referred to be a mod recently. I am contemplating what the motivation would be. I have no need for this sort of adversarial posting. As kevsta confirms, Lothian made a post that referred nowhere to facts, and yet was triumphant in tone, as though he had just proved something..

Instead of saying yes there was a significant decline, the fact it was not exactly 20% was seized on. In fact I said 20% then was asked by when, and suggested end of january. I suggest you all forget this thread and get your trading ideas from CNBC.

Now I am waiting to be told my upside target for the recent rally appears to have been missed by 3 points, it got to 1946.87, so the prediction was worthless.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 05:40 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
My only recourse is to continue posting in good faith. I am sorry I am not taken seriously when the evidence of well functioning predictions using technical analysis is right through the threads. Since there are still people viewing, I will continue with the assumption there is content of interest.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 05:43 PM   #218
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I see another issue, I made the prediction saying by the end of january, but you remodeled it to At the end of january. Pray why? Many markets recovered 50 % in the last few days and the ftse recovered 90%. I don't know why I waste time with you lot.

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Old 2nd February 2016, 06:28 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
My only recourse is to continue start posting in good faith.
ftfy.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 07:56 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
ftfy.
No you did not. You perpetuated the serial and wilful misrepresentation of every effort I have made. This feels like a game being played, and it is being played badly. I will now contribute to Icerat's thread with specifics. I don't like this at all.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 08:53 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
No you did not. You perpetuated the serial and wilful misrepresentation of every effort I have made. This feels like a game being played, and it is being played badly. I will now contribute to Icerat's thread with specifics. I don't like this at all.
You only have yourself to blame.

You left yourself so wide open that even SCRUT could be bothered to do the necessary research to prove your predictions in error in post #198. Had any of the indices fallen to 20% below their December 9 value between December 9 and January 31 you only needed to produce the necessary date/index value. But no, you prefer to whinge instead.

Soon after you started these TA threads, the path that you would follow was predicted (the special pleadings etc) and so far, you have followed the script to the letter.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 09:03 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
December 9th close 4621.57.

You predicted a 20% fall. So I would sell a future at 3697.25 (4621.57 x 80%)
Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
no, Samson is correct, misunderstanding at play here. you would sell it at 4621 following the prediction, and buy it back at end Jan's price for 349 points less.
I think the idea would be that if the price for the future contract was lower than the predicted 3697.25 then you would buy. Otherwise you would sell.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 10:29 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am sorry I am not taken seriously when the evidence of well functioning predictions using technical analysis is right through the threads.
Citation needed, obviously.

And don't forget your prediction of a 20% drop in all world markets! You keep forgetting about that one.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 10:35 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I see another issue, I made the prediction saying by the end of january, but you remodeled it to At the end of january. Pray why? Many markets recovered 50 % in the last few days and the ftse recovered 90%. I don't know why I waste time with you lot.
Can you show where any of the following markets were down 20% at any time during January?

Hint: The answer is, "No, I can't".

And thus:

DJIA
Dec 9,2015: 17,492.30
Jan 29, 2016: 16,466.30

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.87%

Result: FAIL

S&P 500
Dec 9,2015: 2,047.62
Jan 29, 2016: 1,940.24

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.24%

Result: FAIL

Russell 2000
Dec 9,2015: 1,145.87
Jan 29, 2016: 1,035.38

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -9.64%

Result: FAIL

Wilshire 5000
Dec 9,2015: 21,208.78
Jan 29, 2016: 19,926.10

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -6.05%

Result: FAIL

FTSE
Dec 9,2015: 6,126.70
Jan 29, 2016: 6,083.80

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -0.70%

Result: FAIL

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Old 2nd February 2016, 11:10 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Can you show where any of the following markets were down 20% at any time during January?

Hint: The answer is, "No, I can't".

And thus:

DJIA
Dec 9,2015: 17,492.30
Jan 29, 2016: 16,466.30

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.87%

Result: FAIL

S&P 500
Dec 9,2015: 2,047.62
Jan 29, 2016: 1,940.24

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.24%

Result: FAIL

Russell 2000
Dec 9,2015: 1,145.87
Jan 29, 2016: 1,035.38

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -9.64%

Result: FAIL

Wilshire 5000
Dec 9,2015: 21,208.78
Jan 29, 2016: 19,926.10

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -6.05%

Result: FAIL

FTSE
Dec 9,2015: 6,126.70
Jan 29, 2016: 6,083.80

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -0.70%

Result: FAIL

If you recall I predicted 20% declines, without a time line. Then you asked for a timeline, and remembering january can be a huge month, ( let us hope to avoid as goes january so goes the year), I said end of january without any thought. To me the important point was we were going to see NOTABLE declines. What was the general news and mood of january?

I will give you the precise words of a friend from North Carolina, who does not wake up in the morning with a determination to nitpick every word phrase or vague prediction Samson makes.



On 27 January 2016 at 07:27, ************** <*****@xtra.co.nz> wrote:
I gotta feeling, a feeling deep inside. I feel the kiwi might rally for a few weeks here
D

I'm not sure I have that feeling. But you were sure right about equities. I think the kiwi will be lower by June.
J


You see. He has no bone to pick, no axe to grind. And by the way, watch that kiwi fly.
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Old 2nd February 2016, 11:23 PM   #226
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the Russell 2000 is back into -20% bear territory from 2nd Feb.

buying opportunity Samson?
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Old 3rd February 2016, 12:30 AM   #227
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
the Russell 2000 is back into -20% bear territory from 2nd Feb.

buying opportunity Samson?
Dunno. I gotta problem, I called the end of the bear market before I got my 20%. What a field day for the nitpickers.
I am long snp looking for 30 points tonight, after that all bets off. I never watched Russel, thought he was a kiwi born Aussie film star that dated Meg Ryan briefly.
Lucky.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 02:42 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Dunno. I gotta problem, I called the end of the bear market before I got my 20%. What a field day for the nitpickers.
it continually amuses me how they will come out of their respective closets to jump all over you, but continue to ignore my ultra precise forecasting success with their stocks.

I called the moves to come on 3 stocks with astounding precision since Oct / Nov, 3 out of 3, 2 x shorts (AAPL & TSLA) and a buy (WMT) which has become the best performing stock in the Dow in 2016



so I don't know about individual indices, but 2 of my No-Brainers have entered bear markets since my buying price never mind their recent highs, ..were it not for good ol' Walmart being decent (ie QE deflated already) value at sub 60's there would be a bear eating his picnic in my portfolio right now

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am long snp looking for 30 points tonight, after that all bets off.
Im short since yesterday @ 1925 (S&P) Nasdaq 4255 and Nikkei 17793. stops at zero now, could get hit, but I think that's the end of the bounce.

the USDJPY & Oil correlation returned yesterday, and USDJPY has now retraced approaching 70% of its BOJ spike as the market fades them, the Nikkei retraced 100% of its up-move yesterday, but has bounced a few pts from the bottom again now, and oil has resumed it's slide.

= down. sell sell sell
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Last edited by kevsta; 3rd February 2016 at 03:08 AM.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 03:13 AM   #229
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
it continually amuses me how they will come out of their respective closets to jump all over you, but continue to ignore my ultra precise forecasting success with their stocks.

I called the moves to come on 3 stocks with astounding precision since Oct / Nov, 3 out of 3, 2 x shorts (AAPL & TSLA) and a buy (WMT) which has become the best performing stock in the Dow in 2016



so I don't know about individual indices, but 2 of my No-Brainers have entered bear markets since my buying price never mind their recent highs, ..were it not for good ol' Walmart being decent (ie QE deflated already) value at sub 60's there would be a bear eating his picnic in my portfolio right now



Im short since yesterday @ 1925 (S&P) Nasdaq 4255 and Nikkei 17793. stops at zero now, could get hit, but I think that's the end of the bounce.

the USDJPY & Oil correlation returned yesterday, and USDJPY has now retraced approaching 70% of its BOJ spike as the market fades them, the Nikkei retraced 100% of its up-move yesterday, but has bounced a few pts from the bottom again now, and oil has resumed it's slide.

= down. sell sell sell
Excuse me but they ignore my far more ultra precise stock picking. I think it unseemly that we should be hand to hand combatting when the enemy is visceral.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 03:29 AM   #230
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lol. enmity needs to be defined.

I don't see any of them taking the opposite trades to me? (that would be you)

and I am way more of an enemy to myself in day to day trading than any uninformed naysayers on the internet ever could be.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 03:56 AM   #231
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
lol. enmity needs to be defined.

I don't see any of them taking the opposite trades to me? (that would be you)

and I am way more of an enemy to myself in day to day trading than any uninformed naysayers on the internet ever could be.
I invite everyone to explore the thread in detail . From OP to current, it is impossible to execute my trade suggestions and not now be in retirement mode.
Yet what you say is commonplace. I have seen the enemy and it is us.

kevsta, you will prevail, but the fastest way will be to take seriously and act on my suggestions on thread.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 04:11 AM   #232
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I invite everyone to explore the thread in detail . From OP to current, it is impossible to execute my trade suggestions and not now be in retirement mode.
Yet what you say is commonplace. I have seen the enemy and it is us.

kevsta, you will prevail, but the fastest way will be to take seriously and act on my suggestions on thread.
hahahaha. so why are you not already retired then?

I would be interested in which of us the rest of the forum would prefer to be their unknown 401k managers.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 04:38 AM   #233
Samson
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
hahahaha. so why are you not already retired then?

I would be interested in which of us the rest of the forum would prefer to be their unknown 401k managers.
I like bigger pictures. Standalone macro ideas. Short oil. Short stocks. Buy Eurodollars, kiwi. Attend to the thread predictions I laid out like fishes on the slab.
Kevsta I admire your chutzpa, there are simple ways to audit black type in the thread.

ETA hope you are long snp for 1935 tonite.

Last edited by Samson; 3rd February 2016 at 04:39 AM.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 06:47 AM   #234
The Don
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
whats a treatise?
Quote:
treatise

ˈtriːtɪs,-ɪz/
noun
a written work dealing formally and systematically with a subject, generally longer and treating it in greater depth than an essay, and more concerned with investigating or exposing the principles of the subject..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treatise

Samson has repeatedly promised all kinds of documentation and analysis but it has so far fallen to other participants in this thread to actually produce complete and accurate information. This is why I'm skeptical that he'll ever produce even an essay let alone a treatise.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 08:29 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I like bigger pictures. Standalone macro ideas. Short oil. Short stocks. Buy Eurodollars, kiwi. Attend to the thread predictions I laid out like fishes on the slab.
Kevsta I admire your chutzpa, there are simple ways to audit black type in the thread.

ETA hope you are long snp for 1935 tonite.
lol no amigo I am short and staying so. USDJPY broke down as I was hoping, the bear is back in town

macro ideas, short S&P & long Gold last November looks like being the trade of 2016 IMO
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Old 3rd February 2016, 08:34 AM   #236
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treatise

Samson has repeatedly promised all kinds of documentation and analysis but it has so far fallen to other participants in this thread to actually produce complete and accurate information. This is why I'm skeptical that he'll ever produce even an essay let alone a treatise.
ah ok I thought it might be some forum-specific process to highlight complaints or something.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 08:51 AM   #237
The Don
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I like bigger pictures. Standalone macro ideas. Short oil. Short stocks. Buy Eurodollars, kiwi. Attend to the thread predictions I laid out like fishes on the slab.
Kevsta I admire your chutzpa, there are simple ways to audit black type in the thread.

ETA hope you are long snp for 1935 tonite.
Ouch !

Then again, at some point in the future the S&P500 will doubtless climb over 1935 and you can claim victory
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Old 3rd February 2016, 08:52 AM   #238
The Central Scrutinizer
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
If you recall I predicted 20% declines, without a time line. Then you asked for a timeline, and remembering january can be a huge month, ( let us hope to avoid as goes january so goes the year), I said end of january without any thought. To me the important point was we were going to see NOTABLE declines. What was the general news and mood of january?

I will give you the precise words of a friend from North Carolina, who does not wake up in the morning with a determination to nitpick every word phrase or vague prediction Samson makes.



On 27 January 2016 at 07:27, ************** <*****@xtra.co.nz> wrote:
I gotta feeling, a feeling deep inside. I feel the kiwi might rally for a few weeks here
D

I'm not sure I have that feeling. But you were sure right about equities. I think the kiwi will be lower by June.
J


You see. He has no bone to pick, no axe to grind. And by the way, watch that kiwi fly.
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Old 3rd February 2016, 09:12 AM   #239
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Ouch !

Then again, at some point in the future the S&P500 will doubtless climb over 1935 and you can claim victory
it might do, but going by previous cycles it might be in 2022 (AD)

as ever, hope you have stoplosses in place Samson
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Old 3rd February 2016, 09:39 AM   #240
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lulz CNBC all confused, "but but but, oil is going up, and stocks are going down..??!!"

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