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Old 3rd February 2016, 01:53 PM   #241
Samson
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
it might do, but going by previous cycles it might be in 2022 (AD)

as ever, hope you have stoplosses in place Samson
I on the other hand hope you were taking profit while I was adding to longs.
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Old 4th February 2016, 02:04 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
three and a half months ago I drew that line there at $184.32 as the next liquity level if that multi-year trendline failed, and foretold this?

I think it seems relatively certain to test the 200ema at $170ish now, with the usual bounce first.

certain people were also confident that better entry points than $255 couldn't be predicted in advance under any circumstances if I remember correctly.



the hourly chart on the right shows you "the bounce", before re-tracing back to the line and failing / falling another $10.00.

please note that once again the price goes to, stops, turns and precisely does what and where I told you it was going to, from lines on a chart

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Old 4th February 2016, 02:08 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I on the other hand hope you were taking profit while I was adding to longs.
I should have been S&P stops hit at zero, ..re-established that again this morning, the Nikkei & NASDAQ are both still hanging in there..
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Old 4th February 2016, 02:27 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I should have been S&P stops hit at zero, ..re-established that again this morning, the Nikkei & NASDAQ are both still hanging in there..
I am still long. I remember when two traders watched a screen knowing they had opposite positions in the same market, conversation could be stilted. No problem here though.
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Old 4th February 2016, 03:27 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I am still long. I remember when two traders watched a screen knowing they had opposite positions in the same market, conversation could be stilted. No problem here though.
nay lad. you cant take the game personally and succeed. it would be like getting offended that you were facing the wrong way on "my wave" in the ocean as our ship sank..

anyway, IMO the "enemy" are the central-planning forces, corrupting and perverting price and other market signals for decades because they think they know better.

ultimately I'm really looking to try and tag a ride as the market finally humiliates and crushes and these arrogant PHD'd twits.

don't fight the Fed lol. ..one day theyre going to lose BIG

edit. this made me laugh yesterday, sums up the sudden violent selling, and reversal pretty well

https://twitter.com/kubachybas/statu...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

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Old 4th February 2016, 04:24 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
nay lad. you cant take the game personally and succeed. it would be like getting offended that you were facing the wrong way on "my wave" in the ocean as our ship sank..

anyway, IMO the "enemy" are the central-planning forces, corrupting and perverting price and other market signals for decades because they think they know better.

ultimately I'm really looking to try and tag a ride as the market finally humiliates and crushes and these arrogant PHD'd twits.

don't fight the Fed lol. ..one day theyre going to lose BIG

edit. this made me laugh yesterday, sums up the sudden violent selling, and reversal pretty well

https://twitter.com/kubachybas/statu...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

I just hit quote and go, so not sure what content is repeating in cloud perpetuity here.
kevsta, your theories about manipulation can never be disproved, but I flatly reject them.
It may be me that is wrong.
We should always concentrate on which way the train plans to move, or indeed is moving. I may be short soon SnP which means you will not be stopped tonight.
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Old 4th February 2016, 04:38 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I just hit quote and go, so not sure what content is repeating in cloud perpetuity here.
kevsta, your theories about manipulation can never be disproved, but I flatly reject them.
It may be me that is wrong.
We should always concentrate on which way the train plans to move, or indeed is moving. I may be short soon SnP which means you will not be stopped tonight.
Do not misunderstand, I do not trade based solely on manipulation. however to think that it does not occur at and around liquidity points is naive in the extreme, IMO.

*** does anybody want to dispute that I can see and pick liquidity points well in advance of price arriving at them btw?

I now trade based on my own market movement probability theory, would be the best way to describe it I suppose, it involves high timeframe channels (and intersection with) pre-picked liquidity levels, momentum, 123bounce theory, FX correlation and in an utterly ideal world, the perfect stop-run reversal (manipulation) for entry, as previously discussed.

but most of my trading is not taking perfect entries at the ideal times.

ps lol @

Quote:
I may be short soon SnP which means you will not be stopped tonight.
I humbly await my fate depending on whether you decide to flip flop again or not
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Old 4th February 2016, 05:57 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I humbly await my fate depending on whether you decide to flip flop again or not
The great opportunity in technical trading is this ability to flip flop. It is very hard for a client advisor in physical stocks to give a different market view each day. I think that while the term flip flop is essentially intended as mildly perjorative, it is not a bad description, and leads to the greatest potential portfolio tuning.

Would you describe saying everyone should buy apple for an 8 dollar run up, then saying they should sell for a 15 dollar decline, when that is precisely what happened, flip flopping?
What about The Don or Central Scrutiniser? I am interested.
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Old 4th February 2016, 07:23 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The great opportunity in technical trading is this ability to flip flop. It is very hard for a client advisor in physical stocks to give a different market view each day. I think that while the term flip flop is essentially intended as mildly perjorative, it is not a bad description, and leads to the greatest potential portfolio tuning.

Would you describe saying everyone should buy apple for an 8 dollar run up, then saying they should sell for a 15 dollar decline, when that is precisely what happened, flip flopping?
What about The Don or Central Scrutiniser? I am interested.
haha, ok busted, yes I suppose it is mildly "taking the proverbial"

and no, of course, if flip is a successful trade and you can take profits and then flop into reverse and take profits there too, then it is potentially fantastic.

but I meant more like getting whipsawed, long when you should be short, then short at the bottom when it turns again.. ..has happened a few times here, no?
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Old 4th February 2016, 07:40 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
haha, ok busted, yes I suppose it is mildly "taking the proverbial"

and no, of course, if flip is a successful trade and you can take profits and then flop into reverse and take profits there too, then it is potentially fantastic.

but I meant more like getting whipsawed, long when you should be short, then short at the bottom when it turns again.. ..has happened a few times here, no?
Yes it happens when you trade for a breakout in a range locked market. Cash can be burned at a rapid rate, every trader has done it.
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Old 4th February 2016, 08:30 PM   #251
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kevsta, I think I have the long side correct here, but I must concede to mentally flipflopping somewhat. I find the best way in these scenarios is to avoid changing the position until the financial squeeze demands squaring up. Then do nothing, clear the mind, and start the analysis again. I am still expecting 1935 then 1950, but half the market expects the converse. By axiom.
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Old 5th February 2016, 01:21 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
kevsta, I think I have the long side correct here, but I must concede to mentally flipflopping somewhat.
ah, the inner battle, all traders know it.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I find the best way in these scenarios is to avoid changing the position until the financial squeeze demands squaring up.
for me this is - "leave the room, leave it alone, leave it to the stoploss"

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Then do nothing, clear the mind, and start the analysis again.

I am still expecting 1935 then 1950, but half the market expects the converse. By axiom.
..maybe.. but it actually wouldn't surprise me much, to see it suddenly shift the zone down again to sub-1867 and we don't see the 1900s again for a while
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Old 5th February 2016, 01:38 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
ah, the inner battle, all traders know it.



for me this is - "leave the room, leave it alone, leave it to the stoploss"



..maybe.. but it actually wouldn't surprise me much, to see it suddenly shift the zone down again to sub-1867 and we don't see the 1900s again for a while
Watch out, I'm short at the moment, kiss of death, I hope not!
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Old 5th February 2016, 02:02 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
kevsta, I think I have the long side correct here, but I must concede to mentally flipflopping somewhat. I find the best way in these scenarios is to avoid changing the position until the financial squeeze demands squaring up. Then do nothing, clear the mind, and start the analysis again. I am still expecting 1935 then 1950, but half the market expects the converse. By axiom.
Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Watch out, I'm short at the moment, kiss of death, I hope not!
Another way to make sure that your "predictions" come true - have opposite "predictions" in play at the same time.

If the S&P heads up towards 1950 - claim victory
If the S&P heads down - claim victory
If the S&P is volatile and moves up and down - claim victory twice

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Old 5th February 2016, 02:13 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Watch out, I'm short at the moment, kiss of death, I hope not!
flop.. but the bounce has been weak, not like August, yet anyway, and it looks to me like we are just failing the bounce uptrend line today and so a day closer to the next plunge.

whether it has another run up to get my stops first is always the question, otherwise is all running nicely within the weekly down-channels with no great surprises so far..



I've been hedging equities short positions that get into profit then run back against me by going long USDJPY for the bounces at the upcoming liquidity levels. note the way with all that BOJ madness, the price has reacted perfectly predictably, ie staying fully within the established daily channel ranges.

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Old 5th February 2016, 02:18 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another way to make sure that your "predictions" come true - have opposite "predictions" in play at the same time.

If the S&P heads up towards 1950 - claim victory
If the S&P heads down - claim victory
If the S&P is volatile and moves up and down - claim victory twice

well, if you get into profit on a short (or long) and then at a bounce point, also go long (or short, opposite your original) you can have 2 opposing trades running at the same time, and potentially bank both of them?

if you dont close them together, whether you end up with more than your locked-in amount or not is always debatable though
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Old 5th February 2016, 03:39 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Another way to make sure that your "predictions" come true - have opposite "predictions" in play at the same time.

If the S&P heads up towards 1950 - claim victory
If the S&P heads down - claim victory
If the S&P is volatile and moves up and down - claim victory twice

You are always drawing conclusions from false premises.
I make specific predictions on the one hand.
But I discuss trades generally. You must learn to differentiate.
Here is a class exercise. Find the last three specific predictions Samson made, and discuss the known outcomes.
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Old 5th February 2016, 06:35 AM   #258
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non-farms bad miss. could be interesting. if we head off convincingly south, look for Fed Heads to speak the dovish tongue for any reversals
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Old 5th February 2016, 02:31 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
non-farms bad miss. could be interesting. if we head off convincingly south, look for Fed Heads to speak the dovish tongue for any reversals
Good work kevsta.
It appears I am probably wrong about the end of the bear markat.

On february 5 the Italian share market just closed exactly 20% lower than on december 9. End of january? Near enough for me. This shows how absurd it is for people to call failure on a prediction that gave a number and a time. No Italian investor would be calling for me to be hanged for being 5 days late. That is only for earthquake scientists.
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Old 6th February 2016, 07:16 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Good work kevsta.
It appears I am probably wrong about the end of the bear markat.
I personally would probably first wait for it (an actual bear market) to be confirmed on the index you are talking about anyway, before declaring its death.

and a quick test, who said:
Quote:
Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.
?

anyway, perhaps you can begin to see why I'm not soo very interested in going long whenever you tell me to now ?
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Old 6th February 2016, 07:26 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I personally would probably first wait for it (an actual bear market) to be confirmed on the index you are talking about anyway, before declaring its death.

and a quick test, who said: ?

anyway, perhaps you can begin to see why I'm not soo very interested in going long whenever you tell me to now ?
Actually I called two rallies, one to 1950, got to 1946.97 from entry 1871.1

Then I called 1935, got to 1927.66, and when it failed, as I said, I went short.

Here is someone less critical.

arriving May 2. Expect to stay the month.
I see you got your rally of the NZD. See you soonish J


So some people just call it the way it was without the interminable and graceless nitpicking. Not targeted at anyone here particularly, and not you kevsta.

Can't answer the quote question probably would google up alright. The world is full of legendary traders and pithy sayings, I wonder which superyacht they all party on?
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Old 6th February 2016, 10:19 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Actually I called two rallies, one to 1950, got to 1946.97 from entry 1871.1

Then I called 1935, got to 1927.66, and when it failed, as I said, I went short.

Here is someone less critical.

arriving May 2. Expect to stay the month.
I see you got your rally of the NZD. See you soonish J


So some people just call it the way it was without the interminable and graceless nitpicking. Not targeted at anyone here particularly, and not you kevsta.

Can't answer the quote question probably would google up alright. The world is full of legendary traders and pithy sayings, I wonder which superyacht they all party on?
You made another prediction recently. It didn't go so well:

DJIA
Dec 9,2015: 17,492.30
Jan 29, 2016: 16,466.30

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.87%

Result: FAIL

S&P 500
Dec 9,2015: 2,047.62
Jan 29, 2016: 1,940.24

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -5.24%

Result: FAIL

Russell 2000
Dec 9,2015: 1,145.87
Jan 29, 2016: 1,035.38

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -9.64%

Result: FAIL

Wilshire 5000
Dec 9,2015: 21,208.78
Jan 29, 2016: 19,926.10

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -6.05%

Result: FAIL

FTSE
Dec 9,2015: 6,126.70
Jan 29, 2016: 6,083.80

Prediction: -20%
Actual: -0.70%

Result: FAIL
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Old 7th February 2016, 12:29 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
You made another prediction recently. It didn't go so well:

. . . (copy and paste) . . .
Considering that Samson used the weasel word Before (the end of january), You would actually have to go through the charts and find the lowest value of each index between December 9 and January 31 and not just repeat your post if you want to have another laugh.
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Old 7th February 2016, 01:27 AM   #264
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Interminable and graceless nitpicking. There, I said it again. It would normally seem evenhanded to talk about correct predictions as well as those that are approximately right, but not exactly so. Approximately is exactly how you tune portfolios. Ask Warren Buffet if he cares about exact times and prices.
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Old 7th February 2016, 03:10 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Actually I called two rallies, one to 1950, got to 1946.97 from entry 1871.1

Then I called 1935, got to 1927.66, and when it failed, as I said, I went short.
yea, as I said I'm not interested in trying to catch every little deadcat bounce on the way down, and down is the primary direction now until the Fed first blink, then (start talking about, if not immediately) reverse.

I'm still short the S&P, Dow, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Apple and long gold (from 1078)
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Old 7th February 2016, 03:24 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
yea, as I said I'm not interested in trying to catch every little deadcat bounce on the way down, and down is the primary direction now until the Fed first blink, then (start talking about, if not immediately) reverse.

I'm still short the S&P, Dow, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Apple and long gold (from 1078)
Well, the first of those dead puddycats was 4% in 3 days. a bit lifelike I thought. And if you recall, I said short apple and all stock indices at the top in December.
But this is not a contest, it is a discussion.
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Old 7th February 2016, 04:08 AM   #267
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Well, the first of those dead puddycats was 4% in 3 days. a bit lifelike I thought. And if you recall, I said short apple and all stock indices at the top in December.
But this is not a contest, it is a discussion.
yea I remember, you got there eventually.

However I believe I told you (all) I was expecting a (the next) downturn from 116 onwards and a big downdraft following, even while you were still trying to catch the last dead-cat from 112-120, I was looking for the next cliff-top short

at AAPL $120 on the turn, I actually set up Skeptica (LordOfTheAlgos - Butthurt Capital on 10TH NOVEMBER ) to outperform it (even if by only standing still) and I gave an initial liquidity line target as $102 followed by $92.85, a few days later

so no, this is not a contest, but I am somewhat amused that you still think your chances are better than mine, and would see fit to try and advise me what to trade.

you will also note that I have never tried to persuade anybody to do anything*** I am doing? however if you had followed just my 3/3 stock predictions, ie short Apple, short Tesla, long Walmart, you would have made your whole year in January

***with real money, attempting to goad naysayers into putting virtual money behind endless mouth doesn't count.

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Old 7th February 2016, 06:31 AM   #268
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post

I've been hedging equities short positions that get into profit then run back against me by going long USDJPY for the bounces at the upcoming liquidity levels. note the way with all that BOJ madness, the price has reacted perfectly predictably, ie staying fully within the established daily channel ranges.

well, there was a bounce, you can see the 15min squeeze spiked down, then fired upwards, and it would have hit my take profit nicely, had I not been stopped out right at the bottom of that robbery pin but having had the required bounce, it was sold heavily into and now looks like a short again to me.

there's a building squeeze on the hourly chart now, which if it fires downwards will take us into the 114's, ie the top of the green oval here

its interesting how the whole BOJ NIRP thing has come and gone since 27th Jan and we are back exactly where we were without that minor distraction here, ie at a big failure floor. it might bounce again first, but this could also go suddenly overnight at any point now too..

perhaps even tonight when the Chinese announce their Foreign Currency reserves, it's likely to be a significant move, whichever way it goes



more interestingly though, as USDJPY powerfully bounced 60pips, on Friday indices were once again back correlated with oil instead (which I am also short again from 31.99 and 31.62 lol, forgot to include above) and falling the whole time..

..and even more interestingly, it seems that the FX indices tractor beam switched from USDJPY to AUDJPY. this was also the case in 2013 and 2014 for quite a while on the way up.



edit. Chinese numbers just out, inconclusive, so probably not tonight..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...it-mean-market
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Old 7th February 2016, 07:49 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Considering that Samson used the weasel word Before (the end of january), You would actually have to go through the charts and find the lowest value of each index between December 9 and January 31 and not just repeat your post if you want to have another laugh.
I did. Same results. But I think you already knew that.
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Old 7th February 2016, 07:51 AM   #270
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Interminable and graceless nitpicking. There, I said it again. It would normally seem evenhanded to talk about correct predictions as well as those that are approximately right, but not exactly so. Approximately is exactly how you tune portfolios. Ask Warren Buffet if he cares about exact times and prices.
This is a skeptics forum. "Approximately" is a word that has a definition. And not getting remotely close is not the definition.
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Old 7th February 2016, 11:10 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
I did. Same results. But I think you already knew that.
I'll have to take your word for that. All I see is "Jan 29, 2016" on your oft repeated data.
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Old 7th February 2016, 11:57 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
This is a skeptics forum. "Approximately" is a word that has a definition. And not getting remotely close is not the definition.
Oh I will run with the Italians getting there 20% decline by february 5 as approximate. Most people who know markets would give it 99.5%.
There are plenty of 10 to 18%' s on the board by now after friday too. But I dare not suggest we push it out to end of february. What mirth that would engender. After all, who ever holds a trade that long?
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Old 7th February 2016, 10:02 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I'll have to take your word for that. All I see is "Jan 29, 2016" on your oft repeated data.
30th & 31st were a weekend
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Old 7th February 2016, 10:03 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Oh I will run with the Italians getting there 20% decline by february 5 as approximate. Most people who know markets would give it 99.5%.
There are plenty of 10 to 18%' s on the board by now after friday too. But I dare not suggest we push it out to end of february. What mirth that would engender. After all, who ever holds a trade that long?
About the half-dozen or so major indexes I listed? All spectacular failures.
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Old 8th February 2016, 12:27 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
About the half-dozen or so major indexes I listed? All spectacular failures.
Rome wasn't built in a day. Bad pun. The decline and fall of the index was delivered 5 days late. Humble apologies.
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Old 8th February 2016, 01:48 AM   #276
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
30th & 31st were a weekend
What about the days before Jan 29? Was the lowest price recorded on Jan 29 for all the indices?
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Old 8th February 2016, 01:52 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
What about the days before Jan 29? Was the lowest price recorded on Jan 29 for all the indices?
of course not.

apparently market predictions have to happen exactly on a certain day/date picked in advance also, to be valid
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Old 8th February 2016, 02:08 AM   #278
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here's one that entered a bear market (20% down from highs) on Jan 20th.

..the Global Dow is pretty insignificant little index though..

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...tryCode=US#P5Y

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Old 8th February 2016, 02:44 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post

..maybe.. but it actually wouldn't surprise me much, to see it suddenly shift the zone down again to sub-1867 and we don't see the 1900s again for a while
S&P is testing down at 1865 currently, & the Nasdaq is currently probing the August lows. if its floor fall-out day and we close (daily) convincingly below these levels, my next downside targets are S&P 1800ish and Nasdaq 3820ish
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Old 8th February 2016, 04:19 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
S&P is testing down at 1865 currently, & the Nasdaq is currently probing the August lows. if its floor fall-out day and we close (daily) convincingly below these levels, my next downside targets are S&P 1800ish and Nasdaq 3820ish
There is certainly cause for concern technically in all these markets. Fundamentally I don't understand against low interest rates, but there it is. The markets are declining. This is bad news for those who refuse to meddle with their holdings. The timing of this bear market didn't look complex to me.
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