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Old 8th February 2016, 05:08 AM   #281
The Central Scrutinizer
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
What about the days before Jan 29? Was the lowest price recorded on Jan 29 for all the indices?
No other day came remotely close to -20%.

FAIL
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Old 8th February 2016, 05:10 AM   #282
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
here's one that entered a bear market (20% down from highs) on Jan 20th.
As you might recall, the claim was ALL global markets. Not one.
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Old 8th February 2016, 09:59 AM   #283
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
No other day came remotely close to -20%.
How would you know? You only looked at Jan 29.

FAIL
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Old 8th February 2016, 10:22 AM   #284
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
How would you know? You only looked at Jan 29.

FAIL
Nope. Our TA "experts" (LOL!) have had every opportunity to show where any of the indexes I listed got even remotely close to -20% at any time during January. They have failed to do so.

This is why smart people like me point and laugh.
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Last edited by The Central Scrutinizer; 8th February 2016 at 10:28 AM.
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Old 8th February 2016, 10:37 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
This is why smart people like me point and laugh.
Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
30th & 31st were a weekend
And people smarter than you know that 30th and 31st don't come before Jan 29.
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Old 8th February 2016, 11:04 AM   #286
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
And people smarter than you know that 30th and 31st don't come before Jan 29.
Sure they do. Dec 30th & 31st are before Jan 29.
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Old 8th February 2016, 11:28 AM   #287
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Sure they do. Dec 30th & 31st are before Jan 29.
your "test" is laughable. "smart people like me"
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Old 8th February 2016, 11:32 AM   #288
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the S&P is currently only 120 pts away from a bear market..

awesome day for the shorts..
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Old 8th February 2016, 11:46 AM   #289
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
Sure they do. Wednesday Dec 30th & Thursday 31st (the weekend) are before Jan 29.
ftfy.

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Old 8th February 2016, 02:48 PM   #290
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Meanwhile dow jones is not doing so bad. Buy things that hurt when you drop them on your foot?
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Old 8th February 2016, 04:38 PM   #291
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I predict the DJIA will go above 20,000
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Old 9th February 2016, 02:05 PM   #292
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The SnP closed at 1952, a good idea to go long here.
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Old 9th February 2016, 02:33 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The SnP closed at 1952, a good idea to go long here.
you appear to be about 100 pts out, and all further analysis taken from there really
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Old 9th February 2016, 03:45 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
you appear to be about 100 pts out, and all further analysis taken from there really
Maybe. I am long and out of money on the close. Could easily get bbq'd. Like Steve Avery's cat.
We shall see.
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Old 9th February 2016, 03:46 PM   #295
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Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer View Post
I predict the DJIA will go above 20,000
Are you calling the date and time to the nano second or just the milli second?
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Old 9th February 2016, 05:55 PM   #296
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Are you calling the date and time to the nano second or just the milli second?
I'll post my charts as soon as I can get my IT guy to do it.
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Old 10th February 2016, 06:01 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Maybe. I am long and out of money on the close. Could easily get bbq'd. Like Steve Avery's cat.
We shall see.
I caught the bounce this morning too on the NASDAQ & S&P. ..me, long stocks, who would have ever thought it.. I'm out at 1876 and 4005 though as I think they could be the upper range limits now.

Cant short yet though as NY open usually often produces a bull-tard charge out of the gate, we have to wait to fade that, maybe a bit higher yet.
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Old 10th February 2016, 06:43 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I caught the bounce this morning too on the NASDAQ & S&P. ..me, long stocks, who would have ever thought it.. I'm out at 1876 and 4005 though as I think they could be the upper range limits now.

Cant short yet though as NY open usually often produces a bull-tard charge out of the gate, we have to wait to fade that, maybe a bit higher yet.
I expect 1888
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Old 10th February 2016, 07:24 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
I expect 1888
hmm. Oil just approaching previous floor at 27.54, if the floor goes, you are once again facing the wrong way.. the second TP on my short is at 27.00

I think it will bounce at 26.89, (once) then we'll see..

also USDJPY, the floor did fall out as I predicted, and we are in my green oval now. if 114.3 fails on USDJPY then were looking at 1775 S&P, IMO.
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Old 10th February 2016, 07:27 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
hmm. Oil just approaching previous floor at 27.54, if the floor goes, you are once again facing the wrong way.. the second TP on my short is at 27.00

I think it will bounce at 26.89, (once) then we'll see..

also USDJPY, the floor did fall out as I predicted, and we are in my green oval now. if 114.3 fails on USDJPY then were looking at 1775 S&P, IMO.
Excuse me I have never faced the wrong way. I reversed all those rallies, I just called them first including tonight's. I said go long at 1852 and you took profit at 1876. Well done. I haven't said what I have done, just that I expect 1888.
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Old 10th February 2016, 07:42 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Excuse me I have never faced the wrong way. I reversed all those rallies, I just called them first including tonight's. I said go long at 1852 and you took profit at 1876. Well done. I haven't said what I have done, just that I expect 1888.
im my world, that is known as "a bite" sub-classified as "the justification bite" ..touchy?

I just meant that if you are expecting 1888 in a trading kind of way and we go to 1800 first, you are facing the wrong way?
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Old 10th February 2016, 07:54 AM   #302
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
im my world, that is known as "a bite" sub-classified as "the justification bite" ..touchy?

I just meant that if you are expecting 1888 in a trading kind of way and we go to 1800 first, you are facing the wrong way?
"You are once again facing the wrong way". In my world that is a perjorative utterance, as though this is my habitual disposition, to be wrong. Yet this is just after you followed my advice and took a bite out of the long side. Let's see if that garners a "touchy" response.

ETA I am square.
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Old 10th February 2016, 08:08 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
"You are once again facing the wrong way". In my world that is a perjorative utterance, as though this is my habitual disposition, to be wrong. Yet this is just after you followed my advice and took a bite out of the long side. Let's see if that garners a "touchy" response.

ETA I am square.
hahaha. stop being so touchy, traders are wrong every day.

ok, so let me specify exactly which "once again" I meant. I meant just last week when you were telling me to "join you on the ride to 1950", while I remained short. that "once again" ?

it hasnt even happened yet anyway, so although I did hit the short button moments ago. so we will see..
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Old 10th February 2016, 08:18 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
hahaha. stop being so touchy, traders are wrong every day.

ok, so let me specify exactly which "once again" I meant. I meant just last week when you were telling me to "join you on the ride to 1950", while I remained short. that "once again" ?

it hasnt even happened yet anyway, so although I did hit the short button moments ago. so we will see..
For the record I was long too high and missed the top, so made small profit. If 1976 holds as the high it is pretty negative, that much I would agree. I still expect to see 1988 but we will know within an hour or so which way to go.
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Old 10th February 2016, 08:26 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
For the record I was long too high and missed the top, so made small profit. If 1976 holds as the high it is pretty negative, that much I would agree. I still expect to see 1988 but we will know within an hour or so which way to go.
18, 1888 and 1876..

fwiw I didnt know Yellen was on, and have just bailed and am eye-ing longs
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Old 10th February 2016, 08:28 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
18, 1888 and 1876..

fwiw I didnt know Yellen was on, and have just bailed and am eye-ing longs
Ye 1888. I never take notice of numbers and Yellen and so on. Just the raw price data for moi.
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Old 10th February 2016, 08:54 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Ye 1888. I never take notice of numbers and Yellen and so on. Just the raw price data for moi.
which is why you didnt know Non Farms was due, the last time the floor fell out because of it

ps rode a couple of long spikes up, and back down to break even again, short again.
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Old 10th February 2016, 09:02 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
which is why you didnt know Non Farms was due, the last time the floor fell out because of it

ps rode a couple of long spikes up, and back down to break even again, short again.
From a TA perspective, the hourly signal has run it's minimum course to the upside now, so short is fine. I am short myself, but with no confirmation. That is frequently inadvisable.
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Old 10th February 2016, 01:44 PM   #309
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
From a TA perspective, the hourly signal has run it's
minimum course to the upside now, so short is fine. I am short myself, but
with no confirmation. That is frequently inadvisable.
I wrote this before I went out to walk the dog, but didnt post. it seems I was correct though

from my perspective, a confirmation doesnt get much clearer than this, a textbook stop run pin right back into the previous zone (and liquidity level, 1876) with powerful rejection, and at the top of the prevailing
downtrend channel.



note that apart from the one big "shift, or death bar" that blew straight through 1876 on the 8th Feb, there have only been 2 pins through it, with immediate rejection both times, (ie price unable to close above or below the line) one test from above on Feb 5th and one test today from below.

so now that those stops (orders) above there have all been hit, it is a) safer to put mine there, and b) the market can hopefully crack on and push lower again, looking for the next shift bar down, some time soon.

SHORT-IT !!
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Old 10th February 2016, 01:51 PM   #310
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USDJPY down to 113.2, WTI @ 27.50 ..down we go..

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Old 10th February 2016, 01:58 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
I wrote this before I went out to walk the dog, but didnt post. it seems I was correct though

from my perspective, a confirmation doesnt get much clearer than this, a textbook stop run pin right back into the previous zone (and liquidity level, 1876) with powerful rejection, and at the top of the prevailing
downtrend channel.



note that apart from the one big "shift, or death bar" that blew straight through 1876 on the 8th Feb, there have only been 2 pins through it, with immediate rejection both times, (ie price unable to close above or below the line) one test from above on Feb 5th and one test today from below.

so now that those stops (orders) above there have all been hit, it is a) safer to put mine there, and b) the market can hopefully crack on and push lower again, looking for the next shift bar down, some time soon.

SHORT-IT !!
You would be surprised how many bar charts I have studied, to the extent I marvel at them as being an art of nature. They are composed of ingredients no individual man can possibly grasp in totality, the reasoning behind decisions of many leading to a succession of single price points composed into this crazy edifice. Yes spikes, abandoned babies and so on. But I now find hundreds of trading opportunities a day from one algorithm. And I don't need thousands, hundreds is plenty.
What I saw was a run up, and I pulled 1888 out of thin air to sate the lurkers.
I see 1881.71 stopped it, 29.71 points instead of 36. 29.71 is enough to retire on in a few days. That is 1.57%, and a progressive profit take is what we require, not a precise number.
Now what was the question again?
Oh yes, I think the down draught looks to be getting strong again.
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Old 10th February 2016, 03:28 PM   #312
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this is why you want to know when the Central printers are speaking.

also note on image USDJPY lead down, and the S&P caught down to it later. (there is a lag)

from here credit-craters-not-dovish-enough-yellen-sinks-stocks

what they say is not important, but their mouths provide the timing for big market moves. generally, wait for the first spike and fade it.

todays main move was always down, but the stoplosses above 1876 had to be taken before the move.

"no manipulation" my arse
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Old 10th February 2016, 03:35 PM   #313
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No Manipulation. You are talking through a hole in your head kevsta. Information is accumulated into one price point that continually changes. There is no added value to be had by theorising on the unknowable.
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Old 10th February 2016, 11:55 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
No Manipulation. You are talking through a hole in your head kevsta. Information is accumulated into one price point that continually changes. There is no added value to be had by theorising on the unknowable.
whatever.
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Old 11th February 2016, 12:19 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post

EDIT. here's the USDJPY outlook that paints it's lines all over your indices and portfolios. if (when) the red uptrend line fails here it's wheeee-time again. if it goes here on this 4 hour bar and fires the building squeeze downwards, well I hope you're using stoplosses Samson..

to be fair it could fire upwards too, but we look extended upwards already against the long-term trend, so down is more likely IMO

as predicted. next area of likely pausing / turning around $1.10



and there is a daily squeeze building on the S&P, and one fired off on the NASDAQ yesterday..
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Old 11th February 2016, 02:12 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
S&P is testing down at 1865 currently, & the Nasdaq is currently probing the August lows. if its floor fall-out day and we close (daily) convincingly below these levels, my next downside targets are S&P 1800ish and Nasdaq 3820ish
so it was floor fall-out day, we did close below 1865, so here comes 1810ish.

so simple even an internationalskeptic could have made money on it.

IMO it will half-bounce at 1800, but will not convincingly turn upwards again before 1750-1775
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Old 11th February 2016, 03:20 AM   #317
Samson
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
so it was floor fall-out day, we did close below 1865, so here comes 1810ish.

so simple even an internationalskeptic could have made money on it.

IMO it will half-bounce at 1800, but will not convincingly turn upwards again before 1750-1775
Those 20% calls look likely everywhere. One by one they are getting there.
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Old 11th February 2016, 04:29 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Those 20% calls look likely everywhere. One by one they are getting there.
1710 is bear line for the S&P.
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Old 11th February 2016, 05:09 AM   #319
Samson
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Originally Posted by kevsta View Post
1710 is bear line for the S&P.
Spain just hit 20% since close dec 9.

dec 9 close 9737
low today 7769

minus 20.2%
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Old 11th February 2016, 05:14 AM   #320
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Japan

Dec 9 close 19300
low today 15029

minus 22.1%

If I didn't see that bloody great red fail of Scrut's everytime I load the thread I wouldn't go on about it.
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