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Tags donald trump , US-North Korea relations

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Old 14th August 2017, 01:11 AM   #361
The Don
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That doesn't mean I think it's a good way to go, just that it could be more effective than the past efforts have been. Thus far it already produced one result, Chinca threw off their disguise and publically admit they do, in fact, support the regime.

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Was there doubt about this ?

They have supported North Korea politically and financially for decades. Sure they have said that if North Korea carries out a preemptive strike against the US then they would not support them, but IMO that's SOP.
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Old 14th August 2017, 01:43 AM   #362
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I hate to say this, but I think his approach to the Korean problem is the first instance where I think he may have the right approach.
If he hadn't been blundering so spectacularly on nearly everything else I might think it was a sound strategy.
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Old 14th August 2017, 02:06 AM   #363
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It seemed like diplomacy was working until Bush decided to take the "hard line" approach. Obama tried to recover from Bush's blunder but didn't quite get there. Trump is doubling down on Bush's blunder and now we have a nuclear war crisis.
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Old 14th August 2017, 03:59 AM   #364
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Was there doubt about this ?

They have supported North Korea politically and financially for decades. Sure they have said that if North Korea carries out a preemptive strike against the US then they would not support them, but IMO that's SOP.
There never was doubt about it, but having come out and say publically they would defend them is still notably more than what we were used to. They said, in no uncertain terms, Kims' regime even with its current antics, is prefferable to them than a unified, democratic Korea.

This was true before the statement, but now they can no longer pretend it is not the case and the useless six party talks and such will no longer be seen as much as progress as a stalling tactics by two close allies.

Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
If he hadn't been blundering so spectacularly on nearly everything else I might think it was a sound strategy.
I don't consider it a masterful strategy by the slightest. It's a lucky strike, if you flail around in the darkness long enough you might eventually hit something important.

Talking tough on North Korea brought Trumps' poll numbers up by 2-3 percentage points overnight. That might have been a masterful strategy and the real reason for his statements. The fact it might work is a welcome side effect.

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Old 14th August 2017, 04:11 AM   #365
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There never was doubt about it, but having come out and say publically they would defend them is still notably more than what we were used to. They said, in no uncertain terms, Kims' regime even with its current antics, is prefferable to them than a unified, democratic Korea.

This was true before the statement, but now they can no longer pretend it is not the case and the useless six party talks and such will no longer be seen as much as progress as a stalling tactics by two close allies.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. It doesn't seem like anyone is in favour of this, or more specifically is sufficiently in favour of it to be willing to pay for this.

The South Koreans can't afford it and in any case wouldn't be too thrilled to have tens of millions of brainwashed people without the skills to survive in the modern world suddenly dumped upon them. The United States is understandably unwilling to cough up the trillions of dollars that it would cost to bring North Korea anywhere near to the level of South Korea and I presume that China is the same (with in their case the prospect of millions of refugees trying to pour over their borders).

Nearly 30 years on, Germany is still feeling the economic effects of reunification and they were far richer than South Korea and the gap that needed to be closed was far smaller (and yet it's still there).
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Old 14th August 2017, 04:11 AM   #366
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The problem is that Trump has the weight of office behind those words now. Ignoring them may be a crime for some people.
One which they will never be punished or even tried for but praised & thanked for... and one which their whole mindset is already primed for because they already don't take him seriously (the constant efforts to turn discussions to the subject of himself, the furious screaming at the TV, the refusal to take crucial informational documents that aren't formatted like a children's book, the demand to be given a daily folder of positive media articles about himself...).

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Diplomacy, pressure, sanctions, six-party talks and more consistently failed over the past 20+ years... Call the NK out on their bluffs, make them look bad and scared you will retalliate in a spectacular and deadly manner... That doesn't mean I think it's a good way to go, just that it could be more effective than the past efforts have been.
Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
It seemed like diplomacy was working...
Effective/working at what goal? Getting them to stop abusing their own country? Getting them to stop trying to develop the ability to seriously harm other countries? Getting them to quit holding Seoul hostage?
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Old 14th August 2017, 05:37 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Effective/working at what goal?
It was effective at halting their nuclear weapons program.
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Old 14th August 2017, 10:00 AM   #368
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
<snip>

I hate to say this, but I think his approach to the Korean problem is the first instance where I think he may have the right approach. Diplomacy, pressure, sanctions, six-party talks and more consistently failed over the past 20+ years.

<snip>

People keep saying this, but it isn't clear to me exactly what the failure is.

We want to keep NK contained. They rattle their bamboo swords a little bit every once in a while, we throw them a bone or two.

They aren't a credible threat unless we make them one, and there probably isn't a better way to do that than trying to screw up their already screwed economy even more while at the same time insulting their national integrity and honor with the specific intention of provoking a hostile response.

It seems to me that the failure is in poking sticks at them and rattling their cage.

They know where the primary ground zero of any nuclear exchange with the U.S. is going to be, and I expect that even Kim Jong-un isn't crazy enough to want to be Dear Leader of a glassed over, radioactive wasteland.

Trump, on the other hand, knows that it is unlikely that he or any of his own will suffer.

He has nothing to lose.
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Old 14th August 2017, 10:22 AM   #369
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I've said it before and I'll say it again. It doesn't seem like anyone is in favour of this, or more specifically is sufficiently in favour of it to be willing to pay for this.

The South Koreans can't afford it and in any case wouldn't be too thrilled to have tens of millions of brainwashed people without the skills to survive in the modern world suddenly dumped upon them. The United States is understandably unwilling to cough up the trillions of dollars that it would cost to bring North Korea anywhere near to the level of South Korea and I presume that China is the same (with in their case the prospect of millions of refugees trying to pour over their borders).

Nearly 30 years on, Germany is still feeling the economic effects of reunification and they were far richer than South Korea and the gap that needed to be closed was far smaller (and yet it's still there).
Unfortunately just taking out Kim is not going to solve much. China does not want a unified Korea and as you said they don't want the refugees.

I think the best case scenario would be for China to put a puppet state in place, while SK and the USA do nothing and then everyone helps North Korea de-program and become a reasonable modern state and actually negotiate a peace treaty.
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Old 14th August 2017, 10:36 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
We want to keep NK contained. They rattle their bamboo swords a little bit every once in a while, we throw them a bone or two.

They aren't a credible threat unless we make them one, and there probably isn't a better way to do that than trying to screw up their already screwed economy even more while at the same time insulting their national integrity and honor with the specific intention of provoking a hostile response.

It seems to me that the failure is in poking sticks at them and rattling their cage.
.
So that's your vote for paying NK endlessly escalating blackmail under the threat of nuclear extortion?
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Old 14th August 2017, 10:53 AM   #371
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
So that's your vote for paying NK endlessly escalating blackmail under the threat of nuclear extortion?

No.

Edited by jsfisher:  ...snip... Edited for compliance with Rules 0 and 12 of the Membership Agreement.
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Old 14th August 2017, 10:58 AM   #372
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
No.

Edited by jsfisher:  ...snip... Moderated content redacted.
Then please elaborate? What did you mean by having a nuclear armed NK:

Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
rattle their bamboo swords a little bit every once in a while, we throw them a bone or two. They aren't a credible threat unless we make them one, and there probably isn't a better way to do that than trying to screw up their already screwed economy

Last edited by jsfisher; 14th August 2017 at 02:45 PM.
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Old 14th August 2017, 11:23 AM   #373
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Then please elaborate?

If I had even the tiniest hope that you might actually engage in reasoned, rational discourse, in spite of your posting history, I might take the trouble to do that.

Quote:
What did you mean by having a nuclear armed NK:

But you have made it clear that you have no intention of doing so.
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Old 14th August 2017, 12:37 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
If I had even the tiniest hope that you might actually engage in reasoned, rational discourse, in spite of your posting history, I might take the trouble to do that.




But you have made it clear that you have no intention of doing so.
Hmmm, I think that saying:

"your response to my post is the sort of mindlessly stupid retort I would expect from you."

isn't exactly " actually engage in reasoned, rational discourse"... but I'll forgive and forget... now, bearing in mind this is (supposedly) a discussion forum and not an echo chamber... why not tell me what you meant?
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Old 14th August 2017, 07:14 PM   #375
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Kim changes mind about starting WWIII. Missile strike aimed around Guam called off.
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Old 14th August 2017, 07:19 PM   #376
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North Korea Backs Off Guam Missile-Attack Threat

North Korea Backs Off Guam Missile-Attack Threat

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-k...eat-1502751054

Quote:
SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided not to launch a threatened missile attack on Guam, Pyongyang’s state media reported on Tuesday, but warned that he could change his mind “if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions.”

Suuuure you will. Just like the neighborhood bully when someone finally stands up to him. "I'll get you next time!"

I'd say Kim's street cred went from pretty high to somewhere near zero. I don't know who convinced him - his people, China, Trump, something else. What a dork.

Quote:
Mr. Kim added that the planned launch could still be carried out at any moment, and said that such a strike would be a “most delightful historic moment” that would “wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”
Dr Evil: "Rrrrriiiiiiiiiiiight......"
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Old 14th August 2017, 07:29 PM   #377
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I wonder if Kim really believes he could take on the USA military or does he just want his people to believe it?
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Old 14th August 2017, 09:51 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by mike81 View Post
I wonder if Kim really believes he could take on the USA military or does he just want his people to believe it?
IMO it's just for internal North Korean consumption and the seemingly endless escalate-deescalate cycles seem IMO to show that North Korea seem to have a semi-realistic view of their own weakness.

We like to portray our enemies as dangerous loonies, this doesn't necessarily mean that they are, or that they are all the time.
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Old 14th August 2017, 10:02 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
[b]

Suuuure you will. Just like the neighborhood bully when someone finally stands up to him. "I'll get you next time!"

I'd say Kim's street cred went from pretty high to somewhere near zero. I don't know who convinced him - his people, China, Trump, something else. What a dork.
No one had to convince him because this fits his regular pattern. He has done this for years. So many times now that his military surely has "cry wolf" syndrome at going on super-serious-high-alert so often.

It seems that by his threat being so specific about Guam though he has opened future missile launches to being shot down, regardless of NOT intending them to hit anything at all.
(I suppose that depends on if any of them are possibly 'smart' and can change course in flight... or be interpreted that way.)

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Old 15th August 2017, 07:50 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
North Korea Backs Off Guam Missile-Attack Threat

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-k...eat-1502751054




Suuuure you will. Just like the neighborhood bully when someone finally stands up to him. "I'll get you next time!"

I'd say Kim's street cred went from pretty high to somewhere near zero. I don't know who convinced him - his people, China, Trump, something else. What a dork.

Dr Evil: "Rrrrriiiiiiiiiiiight......"
Kim's street cred is still the same. He's a loose cannon and likes to push the edge but knows any real attack will be the end of him.

NK is in the midst of terrible drought so he sabre rattles. It's to divert attention, not unlike the leader of a another country.
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Old 15th August 2017, 08:17 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Kim's street cred is still the same. He's a loose cannon and likes to push the edge but knows any real attack will be the end of him.
Which is of course why he knows he needs nukes and to be a credible threat, look at what happened to Saddam without them?

The rule is no one invades any member of the nuclear club after all.
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Old 15th August 2017, 08:36 AM   #382
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7674781.html

Not sure how dangerous this move is by Trump in sending a strike fleet to the Korean Perpendicular, but it seems to have a number of people in the know rather worried about how North Korea will react.
What I find so odd is that just about the time the war 45 was wanting to start with Korea is looking decidedly less likely, then 45 busily starts to find a way to start another Civil War here in the USA.
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Old 15th August 2017, 09:32 AM   #383
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The only person Kim can hurt is himself. So he pretends to be relevant as a strategy to prevent the 100 or so ruling elite in NK from killing him off and prevent the masses from revolting.

Oldest strategy in the book actually. Why was Stalin revered? People unite against outside threat. They will even unite under poor and/or evil leadership if need be.
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Old 15th August 2017, 09:50 AM   #384
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
The only person Kim can hurt is himself. So he pretends to be relevant as a strategy to prevent the 100 or so ruling elite in NK from killing him off and prevent the masses from revolting.

Oldest strategy in the book actually. Why was Stalin revered? People unite against outside threat. They will even unite under poor and/or evil leadership if need be.
The converse is that the only way a leader of the DPRK can survive is by acting like Kim. If he showed any weakness he'd be next in front of the antiaircraft guns. Ditto for anyone in a position to take over.
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Old 15th August 2017, 10:54 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
What I find so odd is that just about the time the war 45 was wanting to start with Korea is looking decidedly less likely, then 45 busily starts to find a way to start another Civil War here in the USA.
He needs more than one front. Any decent leader can win a war on one front, but it takes greatness to win a war on 12 fronts.
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Old 15th August 2017, 02:01 PM   #386
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
he knows he needs nukes and to be a credible threat, look at what happened to Saddam without them
You mean, what still hasn't happened to North Korea all this time without them? (...despite constantly threatening us with them, which Hussein didn't)
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Old 16th August 2017, 02:09 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I've said it before and I'll say it again. It doesn't seem like anyone is in favour of this, or more specifically is sufficiently in favour of it to be willing to pay for this.

The South Koreans can't afford it and in any case wouldn't be too thrilled to have tens of millions of brainwashed people without the skills to survive in the modern world suddenly dumped upon them. The United States is understandably unwilling to cough up the trillions of dollars that it would cost to bring North Korea anywhere near to the level of South Korea and I presume that China is the same (with in their case the prospect of millions of refugees trying to pour over their borders).

Nearly 30 years on, Germany is still feeling the economic effects of reunification and they were far richer than South Korea and the gap that needed to be closed was far smaller (and yet it's still there).
True, but Germany does not need to be the model for the reunification. I was thinking more along the lines of how EU expands, with a significant interm periods of adjustment, investment and growth of the poorer party. With Korea the period would have to last decades just to get through all the brainwashing and investment could remain at a suistainable level. Furthermore, South Korea and USA would not be the sole sources of investment, at a minimum China and Japan should pinch in, for commercial interests as well as political. You could reasonably count on other countries, for commercial and political interests alike. EU and Canada are two good bets.

Divide one trillion dollars over 30 years and you have a much more managable 35 billion yearly bill. Divide it among the countries above, add in substantial private sector investment (there is a commercial demand for sweatshops) plus whatever investment or equivalent can be generated locally (labor brigades to rebuild infrastructure, income from selling coal and whatnot) and you have a plan that no longer looks impossible, just long-term. $1 trillion should be enough to bring the country the size of North Korea up to an adequate level in terms of infrastructure and education - despite all that is going on there, it's not untamed wilderness that has to look like Manhattan at the end. Enough needs to be built so the country can develop on its own without political capital injections, anything beyond that is a weclome, but not strictly necessary addition.

The country would remain divided in two parts for longer still, but it would be on the road to a prosperous, unified, democratic state.

It's not going to happen with this regime in power and China has indicated they favor the status quo.

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Old 16th August 2017, 02:27 AM   #388
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO it's just for internal North Korean consumption and the seemingly endless escalate-deescalate cycles seem IMO to show that North Korea seem to have a semi-realistic view of their own weakness.
I don't see why North Korea would need that. They control the information that comes in and out of the country, why would it matter to them if the information they're feeding to the public has any basis in reality anyway?

The occasional illegal phone call here or there shouldn't impact the effectiveness of the system. They probably have better things to talk about anyway.

No, the escelate-deescelate cycles must have a different main agenda behind them. Extracting concessions and aid here and there is the most likely culprit I can see. The high command probably does have at least a semi-realistic view of their own weakness, but how low it goes in the chain of command is anyones' guess. Their military maneuvres are a joke, even grunts can tell that easily. Do they believe the propaganda or just say nothing out of fear? It's anyones' guess.

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Old 16th August 2017, 02:59 AM   #389
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
People keep saying this, but it isn't clear to me exactly what the failure is.

We want to keep NK contained. They rattle their bamboo swords a little bit every once in a while, we throw them a bone or two.

They aren't a credible threat unless we make them one, and there probably isn't a better way to do that than trying to screw up their already screwed economy even more while at the same time insulting their national integrity and honor with the specific intention of provoking a hostile response.

It seems to me that the failure is in poking sticks at them and rattling their cage.

They know where the primary ground zero of any nuclear exchange with the U.S. is going to be, and I expect that even Kim Jong-un isn't crazy enough to want to be Dear Leader of a glassed over, radioactive wasteland.
The primary reason for the concern over North Korean nuclear arsenal is and always has been proliferation. They're quite happy to sell chemical weapons to anyone who will pay, so why not nukes?

Without that they're a country that can and should be ignored, as you say.

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Old 16th August 2017, 04:00 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO it's just for internal North Korean consumption and the seemingly endless escalate-deescalate cycles seem IMO to show that North Korea seem to have a semi-realistic view of their own weakness.

We like to portray our enemies as dangerous loonies, this doesn't necessarily mean that they are, or that they are all the time.
The stuff that gets posted on KCNA is more likely for external consumption rather than internal hence the trouble they take to translate it into English. BR Myers has a book about internal propaganda which is very interesting. It is designed to view the country as an embattled nation that requires every sacrifice to fend off the hostile world with Kim Jong un as the only hope.
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Old 17th August 2017, 03:29 AM   #391
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
You mean, what still hasn't happened to North Korea all this time without them? (...despite constantly threatening us with them, which Hussein didn't)
Yes because of his being dependant on china for the protection. Being so dependant on a foreign power for your life is not going to feel good to a professional paranoid like him
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Old 17th August 2017, 10:01 AM   #392
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Steve Bannon sez there's no military solution to North Korea. Mind blown.
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Old 17th August 2017, 10:07 AM   #393
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Steve Bannon sez there's no military solution to North Korea. Mind blown.
Only because he wants an economic war with China instead.....
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Old 17th August 2017, 10:39 AM   #394
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Joint military exercises begin Monday.
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Old 28th August 2017, 07:31 PM   #395
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NK fires missile over Japan

Japan requesting emergency UN Security Council meeting.

Quote:
North Korea has fired a missile over Japan which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called the "most serious and grave ever" threat to the country.

The missile was fired just before 6 a.m. in Japan. The launch set off warnings in the northern part of the country urging people to seek shelter.
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Old 28th August 2017, 09:52 PM   #396
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We have the wrong guy in the White House to deal with this.
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Old 28th August 2017, 11:11 PM   #397
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This seems like a big thing why the lack of press, is there something im missing?
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Old 29th August 2017, 02:27 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
This seems like a big thing why the lack of press, is there something im missing?

CNN has been reporting it, but you have to try and catch the little bit of stuff that gets crammed into the chinks between Harvey coverage.
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Old 30th August 2017, 09:24 AM   #399
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Well Trump seems to be ruling out diplomacy to deal with this, bets on when the shooting starts?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/30/politi...rea/index.html
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Old 30th August 2017, 11:22 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Well Trump seems to be ruling out diplomacy to deal with this, bets on when the shooting starts?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/30/politi...rea/index.html
No bet. It could be literally any second. The only really important question is when it orders a nuclear attack. If we get into a conflict with any nation that has a real army, the beast will absolutely want to go nuclear.
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