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Tags donald trump , US-North Korea relations

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Old 30th August 2017, 02:40 PM   #401
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In this case I don't think it would matter who is President. Whoever was in office at the time NK reached this level would probably be considering all the options as well. Only thing is, I don't think The PDJT will consider anything much. Explosions are great for ratings!
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Old 30th August 2017, 02:41 PM   #402
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I think if I lived in Seoul or Guam I'd be making sure that my home and contents Insurance was good for missile and artillery strikes and then book a trip to Fiji or somewhere else in the South Pacific that isn't Guam
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Old 30th August 2017, 03:04 PM   #403
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I hear Antarctica is pretty this time of year.
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Old 30th August 2017, 03:46 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
In this case I don't think it would matter who is President. Whoever was in office at the time NK reached this level would probably be considering all the options as well. Only thing is, I don't think The PDJT will consider anything much. Explosions are great for ratings!
Considering all the options? Maybe. But I can't think of another administration since Kennedy considering a nuclear first strike. I can easily see the beast doing so. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it was bringing up the possibility of initiating a nuclear attack every other time it gets a Korea briefing.
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Old 30th August 2017, 03:52 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
Considering all the options? Maybe. But I can't think of another administration since Kennedy considering a nuclear first strike. I can easily see the beast doing so. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it was bringing up the possibility of initiating a nuclear attack every other time it gets a Korea briefing.

Why do you suppose he skips any? Gets bored and can't keep up with the topic of conversation? Starts tweeting about fake news instead?
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Old 30th August 2017, 04:13 PM   #406
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Why do you suppose he skips any? Gets bored and can't keep up with the topic of conversation? Starts tweeting about fake news instead?
I'm sure it hates anything resembling work, but it does now have a chief of staff that I'd like to think can be relied upon to insist his boss remains briefed on critical potential military situations.

ETA: Though, yeah, it probably doesn't retain even a tenth of the information conveyed.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 02:22 AM   #407
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Kim announces 'perfect' H-bomb test 10x more powerful than the last.

This is the first nuclear test since Trump took office.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 04:01 AM   #408
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
This is the first nuclear test since Trump took office.
Since The PDJT has to hit back "ten times harder", he's going to order a strike of 500 kilotons (vs their 50 kilotons). That'll show 'em!
"And I want it to make a 60.3 earthquake!"
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Last edited by alfaniner; 3rd September 2017 at 04:34 AM.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 06:21 AM   #409
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why does this all seem more accelerated? Uggs this what happens when you try to run a country on a skeleton crew and listen to Omarosa more than the State department?
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Old 3rd September 2017, 08:28 AM   #410
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It's rational for North Korea to want to be too strong to be attacked, but it's not rational for Kim Jong Un to try to take on a super nuclear power. That's asking for it. You could see that the lion didn't like it. I suppose he thinks he will be supported by China. Somebody has said that cutting off North Korea's oil supplies would bring them to their knees, but I doubt that will happen. It's like this policy of cutting taxes to increase public sector spending. There needs to be sane government.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 11:32 AM   #411
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I'm reminded of two little toddlers one-upping each other. I guess this is what you get when you have two man-children unused to being opposed at the helm of nations with nuclear weapons.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 11:43 AM   #412
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
I'm reminded of two little toddlers one-upping each other. I guess this is what you get when you have two man-children unused to being opposed at the helm of nations with nuclear weapons.
True!

In the current argument, I believe we are up to the "I triple dog dare you!" stage. As kids, we didn't have anything past the triple dog dare.

(to be fair, Kim did this with Obama too. He just didn't get a "oh yeah? well my dad can beat up your dad!" in response)
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Old 3rd September 2017, 12:38 PM   #413
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Trump later said, also by Twitter, "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."

Trump has repeatedly sought to use the U.S. economic relationship with China as leverage to cut off Chinese support for the North Korean regime. So far, that strategy has borne little fruit.

Asked by reporters when exiting church Sunday morning whether he plans to attack North Korea, Trump replied, "We'll see."

The latest back-and-forth marked a significant escalation in tensions between Pyongyang and Trump, who has threatened that North Korea will suffer "fire and fury" if it doesn’t back off its provocations.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...nuclear-242289

If the US stops all trade with China the American economy would collapse so that threat isn't exactly going to make the Chinese to change course.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 01:12 PM   #414
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
Quote:
The think tank's experts said they have concluded that the latest nuclear test was of a weapon with a magnitude of at least 100 kilotons, many times more powerful that the atomic bombs dropped on Japan in World War II, adding that the available data "strongly suggests that North Korea has indeed successfully tested a compact but high-yield nuclear device that can be launched on intermediate- or intercontinental-range ballistic missiles."

"This capability has been reached since U.S. President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with 'fire and fury' if Pyongyang continued its nuclear and missile pursuits Aug. 8," it added.
It's on!

Quote:
If the US stops all trade with China the American economy would collapse so that threat isn't exactly going to make the Chinese to change course.
"Trump later said, also by Twitter, "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with China Russia Mexico Philippines India Thailand Grenada."
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Old 3rd September 2017, 01:51 PM   #415
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[quote=alfaniner;11982578]Since The PDJT has to hit back "ten times harder", he's going to order a strike of 500 kilotons (vs their 50 kilotons). That'll show 'em!
"And I want it to make a 60.3 earthquake!"[/quote



Good catch.

I hadn't thought about it before, but trying to explain the logarithmic basis of the Mw scale to Trump would probably be an exercise in futility.

"Wadda ya mean, 'Seven is ten times* bigger than six.'? Wadda ya think I am, stupid?"

After all, when I was in school they didn't start teaching us about logarithms until sixth grade. Trump would have a lot of catching up to do before he was ready for something that advanced.

(Actually, it would be more like 101.5 which would amount to an energy release thirty two times as great, but trying to explain that would really screw up whatever it is he uses as a substitute for a brain.)
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Old 3rd September 2017, 03:09 PM   #416
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I personally think the big risk is NK trying to prove it's capability by launching a warhead and detonating it over the ocean. If NK's underlying motive is as it has been in the past, that is food shortages, they are not going to back down until someone offers to supply them with the grain/rice they need to stave off starvation.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 05:03 PM   #417
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
Since The PDJT has to hit back "ten times harder", he's going to order a strike of 500 kilotons (vs their 50 kilotons). That'll show 'em!
"And I want it to make a 60.3 earthquake!"

Good catch.

I hadn't thought about it before, but trying to explain the logarithmic basis of the Mw scale to Trump would probably be an exercise in futility.

"Wadda ya mean, 'Seven is ten times* bigger than six.'? Wadda ya think I am, stupid?"
I admit, your interpretation was better than my intent. I only meant to show that he'd think 6.3x10 would be 60.3.
(but I knew about the logarithmic scale, too...!)
At least I didn't hear one news reporter say "on the Richter Scale" this time around.
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Old 3rd September 2017, 05:23 PM   #418
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
In this case I don't think it would matter who is President. Whoever was in office at the time NK reached this level would probably be considering all the options as well. Only thing is, I don't think The PDJT will consider anything much. Explosions are great for ratings!
Still, wouldn't you rather we had a minimally competent POTUS right now? I would.
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Old 4th September 2017, 12:46 AM   #419
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The Trump administration escalated its warnings to North Korea on Sunday, with Defense Secretary James Mattis warning of a "massive military response" and the potential to carry out "total annihilation" of the rogue state if it threatens to attack the United States and its allies.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...nuclear-242289

It should be noted that these ultimatums, both from Mattis here and Trump elsewhere, are incredibly stupid and short sighted mainly because North Korea loves to threaten the US.

In fact the basic official raison d'etre of the entire North Korean state could be summarized as "protecting the (north) Korean people from American imperialism" and "liberating south Korea from American imperialism".

It needs to threaten America and tries to make its people feel threatened by America in order to sustain a siege mentality. Relatively recently it needed to do this by mostly fabricated propaganda portraying Americans as murderous beasts just waiting to kill them all at the first sign of weakness. Likewise The Americans are portrayed as oppressing the south Koreans and ruling over them with an iron fist. With Trump the North Koreans didn't even need to make up Trumps over the top rhetoric: He came off sounding much like the North Koreans usually do except he was far more terse than they are.
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Old 4th September 2017, 01:00 AM   #420
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Analysts said Trump’s actions were puzzling.

“It’s strange to see Trump going after South Korea more aggressively than he’s going after China, especially since China also thinks that dialogue is central to solving this problem,” said John Delury, a professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul.

In an earlier tweet, Trump had said that China “was trying to help,” although he added it was “with little success.”

Delury said that the “passive aggressive” tone of Trump’s tweets suggested that Moon had been standing up to the American president during their previous phone calls. They spoke Friday after North Korea sent a missile over Japan.

“It sounds like Moon is saying, ‘We’re going to have to talk to these guys’ — which is true — and Trump is frustrated,” Delury said, noting that the latest tweet seemed to address Moon directly, with its “like I told you.”

Trump’s tweet was even more puzzling, analysts say, because Trump himself — both as a candidate and as president — had repeatedly suggested he would be willing to talk to North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un.

On the campaign trail, Trump said that he would be happy to have a burger in a boardroom with Kim, and in recent months he has called Kim a “smart cookie” and has said he would be “honored” to meet him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...3b4_story.html

Maybe President Donald Trump should have informed President Donald Trump that having President Donald Trump appease the North Korean's won't work, like President Donald Trump has always insisted.
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Old 4th September 2017, 02:11 AM   #421
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I would have thought that the Wall street bankers who run America should speak to Malaysia in diplomatic language about the Malaysians, and their North Koreans living in Malaysia, laundering at least a billion a year to Kim Jong Un's personal assets, and supporting Mugabe in Zimbabwe the same way. Talk about sanctions. You force a government to accept your will with the minimum damage to the wealth of the world, and wildlife.

I don't like the way Americans, or at least the State Department, is invading Russian consulates in America at the moment. That's not government by the rule of law.
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Old 4th September 2017, 02:21 AM   #422
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
<snip>

Maybe President Donald Trump should have informed President Donald Trump that having President Donald Trump appease the North Korean's won't work, like President Donald Trump has always insisted.

Trump doesn't do consistency.

He probably sees it as a sign of weakness.
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Old 5th September 2017, 10:14 AM   #423
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Still, wouldn't you rather we had a minimally competent POTUS right now? I would.
Come now. I mean, have we all so soon forgotten about... the emails?!
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Old 5th September 2017, 11:16 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...nuclear-242289

It should be noted that these ultimatums, both from Mattis here and Trump elsewhere, are incredibly stupid and short sighted mainly because North Korea loves to threaten the US.
It's also that making threats you aren't ready to carry out or that have a convenient excuse (they have to attack first) itself is downright stupid.

Of course they're faced with a familiar problem: North Korea is hard to threaten in a serious manner - China won't permit economic sanctions hard enough to make a difference.

There are no easy answers to North Korea, but all of them are definitely in China. Since China is unwilling to let go of their pet, the most effective hardline effort would be to arm Taiwan with nuclear weapons (it's not a soverign nation, so it shouldn't be a violation of NNPT) and for Japan and South Korea to announce their withdrawals, citing North Korean threat. China may be willing to tollerate a nuclear North Korea, but a nuclear South Korea and Japan could be a different matter.

It could also all backfire of course, I'm not advocating it. I'm just saying this would be way more effective than making empty threats to North Korea.

It's either that or a preemprive strike against the North, taking out their nuclear facilities, missile launch sites and whatever forces are capable of striking cities in the South. This too could be very effective, but probably far riskier.

Barring that there is a third option. Ignore North Korea entirely, except for shooting down every missile they launch. A few successful intercepts would make their threats seem rather weak and Kim wouldn't be able to escalate any more.

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Old 6th September 2017, 12:00 AM   #425
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Barring that there is a third option. Ignore North Korea entirely, except for shooting down every missile they launch. A few successful intercepts would make their threats seem rather weak and Kim wouldn't be able to escalate any more.
The problem is that, if North Korea's threats to defend itself against attack start to seem weak, it will only embolden the US to go further in its threats to attack, or even actually attack.
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Old 6th September 2017, 12:13 AM   #426
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
The problem is that, if North Korea's threats to defend itself against attack start to seem weak, it will only embolden the US to go further in its threats to attack, or even actually attack.
North Korea is bluffing and their leadership knows it. If they have a nuclear warhead they can fit on a missile and if that missile works (their success rate is somewhere south of 50%), US still has a viable interception system with more than 50% chance of bringing down that missile.

Another problem they face is that after that one strike they face retalliation. US has more warheads and missiles that can reliably deliver those warheads than, ugh, North Korea has villages, almost. Even if they manage to deliver a major nuke to one US city this won't cripple the US, but it will destroy the North.

It's similar to their threat to Seoul. It's a threat they can't carry out without the regime collapsing and won't do it unless the regime would collapse anyway.

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Old 6th September 2017, 12:18 AM   #427
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
North Korea is bluffing and their leadership knows it. If they have a nuclear warhead they can fit on a missile and if that missile works (their success rate is somewhere south of 50%), US still has a viable interception system with more than 50% chance of bringing down that missile.
25% of a nuke is still much more of a deterrent than none. And they could probably more easily lay waste to some of South Korea or Japan, which also serves as a deterrent since these are US allies.
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Old 6th September 2017, 12:33 AM   #428
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
25% of a nuke is still much more of a deterrent than none.
Exactly. They'll have none if they launch one.

Quote:
And they could probably more easily lay waste to some of South Korea or Japan, which also serves as a deterrent since these are US allies.
The only way they could cause serious damage to Japan is with that 0.25 of a nuke. They could inflict considerable damage to Seoul, if US didn't do a preemptive strike on the artillery positions first. Other than that they'd be killing a few farmers, the rest of the targets would be South Korean military.

North Korean threat is marginal and very defeatable. It's strong enough to require a massive committment of resources in order to neutralize, but ultimately they lack a reliable second strike capability.

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Old 6th September 2017, 12:36 AM   #429
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My concern is that the development in delivery systems might also mean developments in their ability to use chemical weapons against Seoul, which as far as I can see would be the biggest risk casualty-wise.
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Old 6th September 2017, 12:43 AM   #430
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
My concern is that the development in delivery systems might also mean developments in their ability to use chemical weapons against Seoul, which as far as I can see would be the biggest risk casualty-wise.
Not really. Primitive ballistic missiles they have are a poor choice to deliver chemical agents. You need volume to make an effective chemical attack and a few interceptable ballistic missiles that misfire more often than not don't provide that.

What they could do with missiles loaded with chemical weapons is to start a panicked evacuation of Seoul and other cities, which would result in a few casualties and cause an almost cataclysmic economic damage to South Korea.

In any event Seoul is under threat by North Korean artillery, which does have the ability to deliver enough volume to be a real threat, but it had that for the past ~60 years. These new toys of their don't offer anything in this regard. They're meant to threaten US bases and, if possible, large cities.

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Old 6th September 2017, 01:02 AM   #431
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Not really. Primitive ballistic missiles they have are a poor choice to deliver chemical agents. You need volume to make an effective chemical attack and a few interceptable ballistic missiles that misfire more often than not don't provide that.

What they could do with missiles loaded with chemical weapons is to start a panicked evacuation of Seoul and other cities, which would result in a few casualties and cause an almost cataclysmic economic damage to South Korea.

In any event Seoul is under threat by North Korean artillery, which does have the ability to deliver enough volume to be a real threat, but it had that for the past ~60 years. These new toys of their don't offer anything in this regard. They're meant to threaten US bases and, if possible, large cities.

McHrozni
I hope you're right, but these developmenta show that they're clearly well ahead of expectations. Would they show all their cards? I'm not sure.

The artillery aimed at Seoul has the capacity to cause deaths in maybe the tens of thousands range and a lot of structural damage- horrific, but not a cataclysm.
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Old 6th September 2017, 02:08 AM   #432
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
I hope you're right, but these developmenta show that they're clearly well ahead of expectations. Would they show all their cards? I'm not sure.
Near as I can tell they are doing just that and more. They're showing a pair of 10s, claiming they're four aces.

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The artillery aimed at Seoul has the capacity to cause deaths in maybe the tens of thousands range and a lot of structural damage- horrific, but not a cataclysm.
True. Vastly more damage would be done as a result of economic fallout that would follow the panicked evacuation that would happen as a result of the barrage. That is the significant threat of those guns and they are a credible threat as a result. I don't see modern civilians braving out chemical attacks, even relatively ineffective ones, if they have the ability to flee to safety. Some would stay put certainly, but millions would flee and overwhelm the transport system for days and put the infrastructure in the rest of South Korea under a massive strain. It would cause a nasty recession in South Korea at a minium, regardless of what actual damage the attack would cause.

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Old 6th September 2017, 03:34 AM   #433
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
<snip>

Barring that there is a third option. Ignore North Korea entirely, except for shooting down every missile they launch. A few successful intercepts would make their threats seem rather weak and Kim wouldn't be able to escalate any more.

McHrozni

I'd approach that one with caution, too.

A few failed intercepts could present problems of their own.
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Old 6th September 2017, 04:58 AM   #434
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
I'd approach that one with caution, too.

A few failed intercepts could present problems of their own.
True. Intercepts of non-threatning missiles are either very good or very bad, depending on whether they work or not.

The workaround is not to publicize you're going to intercept anything until you do so successfuly. Soviet approach, it's far from ideal, but it's the best I can come up with.

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Old 6th September 2017, 08:36 AM   #435
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Exactly. They'll have none if they launch one.
Really? If a country launches all its nukes then they have none left? Who'd have thought.

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North Korean threat is marginal and very defeatable.
That may be so, but that doesn't mean that their threat to defend themselves is not something which goes into the US's calculus of whether to attack them or not.

The only real question is, how badly does the US want North Korean resources, and does the expected profit from taking them outweigh the expected cost of having a 25% chance of a west-coast city being laid to waste?
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Old 6th September 2017, 09:41 AM   #436
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Really? If a country launches all its nukes then they have none left? Who'd have thought.



That may be so, but that doesn't mean that their threat to defend themselves is not something which goes into the US's calculus of whether to attack them or not.

The only real question is, how badly does the US want North Korean resources, and does the expected profit from taking them outweigh the expected cost of having a 25% chance of a west-coast city being laid to waste?
There was me thinking that until this presidency, and even now, in the administration except possibly the president, the main calculation was the risk that the DPRK posed to the region and beyond.

I doubt that the resources of the DPRK loom large in the considerations.

A bigger question would be the response of China.
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Old 6th September 2017, 07:35 PM   #437
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There are no easy answers to North Korea
I'm not so sure, I think that our glorious leaders have been looking at the problem the wrong way. They say is all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail, so how about we throw away the hammer?

Of there are no easy Military answers, then let's not look for those, let's look for a non-military answer.

Let's face it, NK might be a nuclear power, but it's not a strong one, however, the more that the US threatens them, the more NK will dig in their heels and build more bombs. So stop threatening them!

Do the opposite, the stick hasn't work, so give them a carrot, They stop the rhetoric and show willing to normalise relations and they can come back into the fold. Who cares if they have a nuke and missiles, so does India and Pakistan and they are far more likely to decide to use them. Let's give NK reasons to not fire missiles and set off nukes.

If they are getting US20 Billion a year in tourism from Japan, the US and SK and their infrastructure was reliant on companies like Toyota, Hyundai, Sony, and Mitsubishi, how quick do you think they would be to threaten those countries that were making them richer? If the same as the rest of the world, not very.

Look at the USSR, Iran, and Cuba. Once you make a small step and start to normalise relations, it speeds up and shortly after, they have no need to spend huge amounts of money on things like nukes because they no longer think of others as enemies out to destroy them. Then they spend it on other things, and the wealthier they get, the less they want to go war.

Embargos and sanctions haven't worked against them for over 50 years, might be time to try and use a radical new tactic.
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Old 6th September 2017, 08:04 PM   #438
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It's been tried.

How do you convince a totalitarian ruling class to give up power and security?

It's not like the people of North Korea have been trying out a thing, and now they see it doesn't work, they're ready to try a different thing.

North Korea is the way it is because it works very *********** well for the people who matter. You're not going to change that by making their job easier.

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Old 6th September 2017, 10:10 PM   #439
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I'm not so sure, I think that our glorious leaders have been looking at the problem the wrong way. They say is all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail, so how about we throw away the hammer?

Of there are no easy Military answers, then let's not look for those, let's look for a non-military answer.

Let's face it, NK might be a nuclear power, but it's not a strong one, however, the more that the US threatens them, the more NK will dig in their heels and build more bombs. So stop threatening them!
You described the US policy 1994-2002. It ended when North Korea was discovered to be building the nuclear bomb against agreements.

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If they are getting US20 Billion a year in tourism from Japan, the US and SK and their infrastructure was reliant on companies like Toyota, Hyundai, Sony, and Mitsubishi, how quick do you think they would be to threaten those countries that were making them richer?
Yes. They're doing that as we speak. Furthermore, I strongly recommend you read a little about the regime, it's ... different ... from what we're used to.

Quote:
Look at the USSR, Iran, and Cuba. Once you make a small step and start to normalise relations, it speeds up and shortly after, they have no need to spend huge amounts of money on things like nukes because they no longer think of others as enemies out to destroy them. Then they spend it on other things, and the wealthier they get, the less they want to go war.
That's nonsense. The relations with the USSR didn't improve because US stopped threatning it, but because the country was unable to cope with the consequences of its' disastrous state of economy. Rather than permit starvation and using troops to quell unrest the government unraveled and the state itself collapsed.

North Korea had the same dilemma in 1994-98. Almost 10% of the country starved to death. The ruling elite didn't even flinch.

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Old 7th September 2017, 12:26 AM   #440
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
the most effective hardline effort would be to arm Taiwan with nuclear weapons (it's not a soverign nation, so it shouldn't be a violation of NNPT) and for Japan and South Korea to announce their withdrawals, citing North Korean threat. China may be willing to tolerate a nuclear North Korea, but a nuclear South Korea and Japan could be a different matter.
Sure that could be very effective - if you wanted to start a nuclear war. I don't think China would be very happy with us parking nukes on their back doorstep. Nor South Korea and Japan, since it would just make them legitimate targets.

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It's either that or a preemprive strike against the North, taking out their nuclear facilities, missile launch sites and whatever forces are capable of striking cities in the South. This too could be very effective
Oh my... You do want it!

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Barring that there is a third option. Ignore North Korea entirely, except for shooting down every missile they launch. A few successful intercepts...
and if any intercepts are unsuccessful?
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