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Tags New Zealand elections , New Zealand politics

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Old 25th July 2017, 06:28 PM   #1
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NewZealand General Election

After the thrills of Brexit, Trump & May, the NZ election is a snore-fest, with the only interest being whether the centuries-old Winston Peters - who has been in Parliament since 1878 - will hold enough power to force his way into the PM seat.

I have no doubt National will do a deal and give the old boy a term as PM if that's where the vote goes.

Crying shame is that Gareth Morgan's Very Sensible Party will get 0.5% and fall into the obscurity from which he arose.

The Greens are dead, with their idiotic, obese, joke of a co-leader admitting to both personal benefit fraud and being comfortable with beneficiaries committing fraud.

Labour must be screaming in pain - their erstwhile partner has shown itself to be a hypocritical joke, while also dragging a guaranteed beneficiary vote that would normally go to Labour.

The main thing about the election so far is how little impact it's having. It's like a Clayton's election. Even the billboards are late appearing, with only the dear Nats having all theirs up already.

Delivering for New Zealanders!

Delivering....

20% more prison inmates, despite a drop in crime.
20% more children in poverty, despite housing inflation in double digits.
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Old 25th July 2017, 07:11 PM   #2
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So bloody boring I cannot find a single bookie with odds on it...
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Old 25th July 2017, 08:56 PM   #3
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It doesn't really start getting geared up until the 6-week mark, so we have a few weeks of relative peace to go yet.

As to Gareth Morgan, good riddance to him and his cat hating ways.
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Old 26th July 2017, 01:58 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
As to Gareth Morgan, good riddance to him and his cat hating ways.
And I bet you're not kidding in disliking his politics solely because his anti-toxoplasmosis-spreading, native-bird-destroying, widdle pussy cat stance upsets you.

God, I'm so pleased people are putting the big issues up front this election.
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Old 26th July 2017, 02:29 AM   #5
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If you're worried about introduced species in New Zealand which are most damaging to the environment, maybe ridding the place of humans would be a start
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Old 26th July 2017, 05:06 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
So bloody boring I cannot find a single bookie with odds on it...
Bookies don't really like giving odds on foregone conclusions, but you might find one willing to offer a return for picking the Nat's winning margin.

I'm going for 13 & over
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Old 26th July 2017, 06:20 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Bookies don't really like giving odds on foregone conclusions, but you might find one willing to offer a return for picking the Nat's winning margin.

I'm going for 13 & over
Interesting.
Teachers nurses and police quitting Auckland, currency front runner John Key who would be jailed in America way before Kim Ditcom if his crimes were correctly described. Bankers Trust 1999 to 2005. He is the criminal of the millenium so a couple of knighthoods in the neighbourhood look adornments beside Fay and Richwhite and Bob Jones.
Of course the judges who destroyed Thomas and Bain and Tamihere and Pora and Bain and Lundy and Kylie Guy have all been duly knighted.
I loathe this despicable pretence of a country. But what the hell....
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Old 26th July 2017, 01:31 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If you're worried about introduced species in New Zealand which are most damaging to the environment, maybe ridding the place of humans would be a start
Good god, you're Hone Harawira!

Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Bookies don't really like giving odds on foregone conclusions, but you might find one willing to offer a return for picking the Nat's winning margin.

I'm going for 13 & over
I don't think PM is a foregone conclusion and bookies don't stone cold certainties at all. I can recall Centrebet giving $1-20 on Lonhro's last start for a $5 mio bet. Which they won.

They can have a field minus the favourite and Trump was at 10:1 before voting started. As I recall, all the pundits gave Billary a 99+% chance of winning.

I agree National will have the most seats, but they won't get close to a majority without the racist hypocrite.

Seems to me PM should be a three-dog field:

English $1-30
Little $12
Peters $3-50

is about how I'd have it.

Billy-Boy Catholic English will need to decide whether he's going to try to rule with a minority gov't (which will fail immediately) or let Winnie have the number one seat in Wellington.
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Old 26th July 2017, 02:24 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Interesting.
Teachers nurses and police quitting Auckland, currency front runner John Key who would be jailed in America way before Kim Ditcom if his crimes were correctly described. Bankers Trust 1999 to 2005. He is the criminal of the millenium so a couple of knighthoods in the neighbourhood look adornments beside Fay and Richwhite and Bob Jones.
Of course the judges who destroyed Thomas and Bain and Tamihere and Pora and Bain and Lundy and Kylie Guy have all been duly knighted.
I loathe this despicable pretence of a country. But what the hell....
Since when did we jail bankers in America?

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Old 26th July 2017, 05:36 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Since when did we jail bankers in America?
Bernie Madoff!

(Yes, I know...)
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Old 27th July 2017, 12:27 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Good god, you're Hone Harawira!
I was talking about all humans, not just the European ones
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Old 27th July 2017, 01:00 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
As I recall, all the pundits gave Billary a 99+% chance of winning.
No they didn't.
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Old 27th July 2017, 02:01 AM   #13
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You have party politics in New Zealand?

Who knew?

...



...

Why do hobbits need political parties? Isn't there enough trouble with all those "wizards" () with bad grooming running around in their dunce caps and bathrobes stirring things up?
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Old 27th July 2017, 02:10 AM   #14
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Wouldn't just be easier for you all to go to the pub and whoever is still standing at the end of the night becomes PM?
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Old 27th July 2017, 02:18 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Wouldn't just be easier for you all to go to the pub and whoever is still standing at the end of the night becomes PM?

Hobbit pubs aren't very big as a rule.

They might not be able to find one that'll hold all three dozen of them.
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Old 27th July 2017, 02:26 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Wouldn't just be easier for you all to go to the pub and whoever is still standing at the end of the night becomes PM?
That works for Winston as well - I have no doubt he'd hold more whisky than any other Parliamentarian. Has excellent back-up in the gigantically beer-bellied Shane Jones.

Given the total apathy on the election, it would probably get a bigger crowd, too.
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Old 27th July 2017, 02:32 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Why do hobbits need political parties?
Hahahaha!

ROFL, even.

Someone made a joke about Kiwis and Hobbits!

Nobody ever thought of that before.

Fruit is really passe these days, I guess.
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Old 27th July 2017, 03:23 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Hahahaha!

ROFL, even.

Someone made a joke about Kiwis and Hobbits!

Nobody ever thought of that before.

Fruit is really passe these days, I guess.

Two of Mrs. qg's sisters live in New Zealand. One on each island.

So I have it on good authority that it's all true.
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Old 31st July 2017, 07:33 PM   #19
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Wow, some action in the Sleepyville Election at last!

Jacinda Ardern and eight weeks.

I seem to recall a certain Labour bloke in England making a massive move in a short time. Jacinda is deeply popular, extremely well-spoken and will almost certainly take Steady Bill to bits in the debates.

Glad I didn't manage to have a bet - I sense this being a major, major deal and Labour will pick up a huge amount of ground against the charisma vacuum that is Bill English.

Hmmm.
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Old 31st July 2017, 07:38 PM   #20
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Oh yeah, and immediate interest from the Maori Party, which is no doubt due to Kelvin Davis' ascendancy to #2.
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Old 31st July 2017, 07:59 PM   #21
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Ardern has the potential to be a game changer for the Social Democrats; their first credible candidate for PM since Helen Clark.

She could pick up a fair chunk of the undecided female vote.

Is eight weeks enough though?
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Old 31st July 2017, 11:23 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Ardern has the potential to be a game changer for the Social Democrats; their first credible candidate for PM since Helen Clark.

She could pick up a fair chunk of the undecided female vote.

Is eight weeks enough though?
At a time when the President of USA manages to get by in 140 characters, absolutely.

In fact, with the instant gratification method in play everywhere, it might tirn out to be exactly the right plan. She's a smart woman and people will realise that.

She may also appeal to centrist voters who are sick to death of English's lies over Todd Barclay. If Winnie's right with his claim today that Billy-boy send dozens of messages to the electorate secretary, it must cause a backlash - that whole affair is a shocker and English is in it up to his purty little neck.

I can definitely see that affecting 30-something urban voters.

Also: David Seymour continues to show what an absolute twat he is. Labour's been strong in Epsom a couple of times...
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Old 1st August 2017, 03:41 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
At a time when the President of USA manages to get by in 140 characters, absolutely.

In fact, with the instant gratification method in play everywhere, it might tirn out to be exactly the right plan. She's a smart woman and people will realise that.

She may also appeal to centrist voters who are sick to death of English's lies over Todd Barclay. If Winnie's right with his claim today that Billy-boy send dozens of messages to the electorate secretary, it must cause a backlash - that whole affair is a shocker and English is in it up to his purty little neck.

I can definitely see that affecting 30-something urban voters.

Also: David Seymour continues to show what an absolute twat he is. Labour's been strong in Epsom a couple of times...
David Seymour is someone I liked. But when he suggested Phil Twyford should apologise for pointing out that funds from China had inflated by 30% prices of Auckland real estate, and driven the released tax free cash to do the same in the regions, he showed that his primary interest is in Chinese votes.
He is a poll driven traitor, who has decided that China has more rights in Auckland than Auckland raised kids who have a legitimate interest to raise children in houses they own, and to have grandparents to help them.
He might further consider that these kids bound to rent have their lives inspected and photographed by Chinese property managers.
Disgusting and irreversible.
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Old 2nd August 2017, 02:06 AM   #24
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Special thanks to Richie Richardson for ensuring Jacinda stayed on the front page today with his idiotic question about when she might have kids.

When the CEO of Westpac is moved to make a press statement about it, you should probably realise the faux pas.

I had a very interesting talk to a couple of die-hard Nats today and they are ****-scared.

They recognise that Billy is Boring and Jacinda is bubbly and sharp as hell and that he will look like a doofus against her. They also agreed with my theory that Jacinda will appeal to a large sector of Auckland's liberals who had no interest in Andy Pandy and not a lot of love for Bill.

Labour support flooding in a la Jeremy Corbyn's leadership bid...

This time, it might even matter. The next poll will be very interesting; there has been so much positive feedback it must be reflected in votes.
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Old 3rd August 2017, 03:29 AM   #25
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Dined tonight with a fine man who is switching from national to Jacinda. He worked with many labourites right back to Kirk Rowling in pr.
Boring Bill twice loser. Deserves to with his defunct views on cannabis.

Interesting poser.
You must legalise from first principles the least harmful drug of 3
1. Alcohol
2. Tobacco
3. Cannabis.

Which of above do people cease to use in a day when they are starting to do damage to themselves or people around?

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Old 3rd August 2017, 04:30 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Dined tonight with a fine man who is switching from national to Jacinda.
He will be one of a tsunami of support that switches to Labour.

Bring it on!
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Old 3rd August 2017, 07:35 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
He will be one of a tsunami of support that switches to Labour.

Bring it on!
If she is willing to drag Labour back into the Centre Left rather then wandering off into the fields of green that they have been, then it could well be a Labour/NZ First Government with Green supprt of Confidence and Supply. It would actually take quite a small change of people going from the Nats back to Labour and a few from not voting to back Labour to do it.
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Old 4th August 2017, 12:34 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
If she is willing to drag Labour back into the Centre Left rather then wandering off into the fields of green that they have been, then it could well be a Labour/NZ First Government with Green supprt of Confidence and Supply. It would actually take quite a small change of people going from the Nats back to Labour and a few from not voting to back Labour to do it.
Christ, I hope not! That would be an utter disaster. Last time we saw Winnie the Pooh in Government, he exacted far too great a price for his support. I see no reason why he would not do so again.

I'd sooner see Labour govern outright (although its probably too late for that this election, maybe 2020), or if not a Labour/Green Coalition, but hell, I'd rather see the Nats back in power than let Winnie anywhere near government.
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Old 4th August 2017, 02:16 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Christ, I hope not! That would be an utter disaster. Last time we saw Winnie the Pooh in Government, he exacted far too great a price for his support. I see no reason why he would not do so again.

I'd sooner see Labour govern outright (although its probably too late for that this election, maybe 2020), or if not a Labour/Green Coalition, but hell, I'd rather see the Nats back in power than let Winnie anywhere near government.
Trouble is, the Nats won't be able to govern without him.

I have no doubt Winston would bring the government down and force another election than take anything less than Deputy PM and an assurance Maori seats will be abolished and Waitangi claims closed.

He has all the nuts in his hand.

Am I the only one who thinks Ardern deliberately or inadvertently is strikingly like a young St Helen? Before Helen went to short hair they could have passed for sisters.
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Old 4th August 2017, 02:42 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>

Am I the only one who thinks Ardern deliberately or inadvertently is strikingly like a young St Helen? Before Helen went to short hair they could have passed for sisters.

How would anyone know what St. Helen really looked like?
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Old 4th August 2017, 03:35 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Am I the only one who thinks Ardern deliberately or inadvertently is strikingly like a young St Helen? Before Helen went to short hair they could have passed for sisters.



No.

You're not the only one!
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Old 4th August 2017, 05:48 AM   #32
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Of course, this was painted a millennium or so after she died,

This one is more contemporaneous. Only a year or so after she died (At around 90 years old. Mebbe.)



Yes! Yes! I see it!

Dead ringer.
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Old 5th August 2017, 02:15 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Eyes, cheeks, mouth, and nose are quite different. Hair, face shape, and chin are really the only similarities.
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Old 5th August 2017, 06:43 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
You're not the only one!
That's the exact photo I was after!

I almost wonder whether it's deliberate. She does idolise Helen, and I believe they've spoken a couple of times since her appointment.
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Old 9th August 2017, 02:39 AM   #35
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Seismic shift happening: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11901065

Go you good thing!
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Old 9th August 2017, 03:01 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Seismic shift happening: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11901065

Go you good thing!
The problem is that with the Greens on one side and NZ First on the other, Labour is stuck in the position of cannibalizing their possible support partners rather then taking on National. The increase in Labour's support has come at the expense of the Greens and NZ First. For instance the Greens have dropped 13 points while Labour only picked up 9 meaning that a Labour-Greens coalition is actually 4 points worse off than it was last poll with Labour on 24!

While Labour-NZ First coalition does better in that NZ First dropped just 3.8, that still only puts them on 42.3 compared to National's 44.

Somehow Labour has to attack the numbers that National has, or figure out a way to have them flow from the Nats to NZ First while taking the centre left voters from NZ First at the same time. If they can do it it's not going to take a huge swing. 5% from National to Labour and they are neck and neck. even 1-2% from National to NZ First starts to make a Labour-NZ First coalition a possible scenario, though obviously National would be looking at trying to gain a National-NZ First one too.

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
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Old 9th August 2017, 03:50 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
The problem is that with the Greens on one side and NZ First on the other, Labour is stuck in the position of cannibalizing their possible support partners rather then taking on National. The increase in Labour's support has come at the expense of the Greens and NZ First. For instance the Greens have dropped 13 points while Labour only picked up 9 meaning that a Labour-Greens coalition is actually 4 points worse off than it was last poll with Labour on 24!

While Labour-NZ First coalition does better in that NZ First dropped just 3.8, that still only puts them on 42.3 compared to National's 44.

Somehow Labour has to attack the numbers that National has, or figure out a way to have them flow from the Nats to NZ First while taking the centre left voters from NZ First at the same time. If they can do it it's not going to take a huge swing. 5% from National to Labour and they are neck and neck. even 1-2% from National to NZ First starts to make a Labour-NZ First coalition a possible scenario, though obviously National would be looking at trying to gain a National-NZ First one too.

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
THIS

Labour 24.1% to 33.1% (+ 8%)
Greens 13% to 8.3% (- 4.7%).
NZ First 13% to 9.2% (- 3.8%)

National 45.2% to 44.4% (- 0.8%)

Its clear that all Labour's gains have come from the Greens and NZ first losses. The overall position has not changed significantly... at the moment, it still looks like a case of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!

The Nats drop of 0.8% is a quarter of the 3.1% margin of error, so in fact they may not have lost any support at all (note: that Billy Boy's PM preference rating went up by 1.9%)

Labour need to start making a real dent in that 44.4% and in Billy's PM preference.
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Old 9th August 2017, 12:55 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Somehow Labour has to attack the numbers that National has, ...
Given that National's support has been built up over decades, it not changing much in 3 days is no surprise.

Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Labour need to start making a real dent in that 44.4% and in Billy's PM preference.
Leaders' debates; Billy's ongoing corruption saga; give it another fortnight and let's look at the numbers. National are sitting on their lead and have very little to offer that isn't already apparent.
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Old 9th August 2017, 01:45 PM   #39
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Ardern is just having her honeymoon period with the added bonus of the Metiria fiasco

Though it is funny to watch

Things will be back to normal n a couple of weeks once the media actually start asking her some difficult questions, rather than fawning.

5 days and two new taxes from Labour.

Both stolen of the Greens

And the water one you actually can't call policy, as it doesn't actually have any details and there is no guarantee they will even have one
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:46 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
And the water one you actually can't call policy, as it doesn't actually have any details and there is no guarantee they will even have one
Yeah this one really worries me. Its a home-made suicide kit for Labour.

Water belongs to no-one, and if you start taxing it, you are declaring ownership. With that you bring in all the usual suspects; Maoris wanting their cut - they will claim its a Treaty of Waitangi issue, farmers will complain about the additional costs, so will industry. There is NOTHING that does not either contain water, or use water in its production... if you tax water, absolutely everything will go up in price... all food, all goods, all services, all manufacturing.
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